Open 878: Scarfolk Council | The End

[Aureal]

And I'm the first replacement to catch up! Yay, I win!

I feel a little better about Ceph from the skitter push on him here. Not because of all the silly "I'm so towny" stuff, but I do find some credibility in the idea that he's made his meta case on Enchant before and finds it exasperating to have to spell it out for people again.

Hmmmm. At this point I think I'm going to VOTE: Dunnstral. Still not seeing anything towny here, the only seeming to pop up to argue with people scumreading him isn't a great look, and the counter wagon on him seemingly speeding up pressure to launch Enchant could be telling.

[Menalque]

back later today prob, have seen nightkill but otherwise not up-to-date at all

[Egix96]

Right, I've just made it to the end of D1 (spent a couple hours skimming straight after I repped in, got as far as page 19 before having to step away due to rl stuff/sleep/etc, then finished off the rest today.

I was hoping I would have at least a few strong reads after all that, but eh, I just feel like I need to let my thoughts stew for another day or so.

But as of right now I'm kinda feeling like:

Aisa
implo
sheep
gwoo

are my prob towns, roughly strongest to weakest but none of them are like, lock town or anything.

VOTE: Enchant

Yeet. This may be all the content I can muster today, but yeet.

This was the post I disliked out of all of them, so

VOTE: Alianna

Today's your lucky day, I guess.

Some other things I want to address:

mena seems to be asking questions to just “look busy”

This is an odd line to take. Do you think I’m scum then? Would I be asking different questions if I were town?

It's not so much which questions you were asking, but the fact that you weren’t providing other content in between.

Menalque's i-have-the-solve-just-wait-and-see thing (679) is definitely peculiar. It's kind of coloring the rest of his play for me. If he's town it seems like he's keeping cards close to his chest and playing on the periphery, which is hard for me to read because I'm really not sure why he'd be acting that way as scum but I also find it hard to imagine why he'd feel the need to play this game in this way as town. I just find it peculiar. Maybe it does just make sense as scum, idk. The reason it kind of doesn't jive as just scummy is that I'm not sure why he wouldn't just be explaining things as scum, like the obvious scum motivation for being coy on the periphery is so that you can change your reads on the fly if needed but I don't really think this is a game state where scum would feel the need to do anything like that.

I found this post really hard to parse, the way you wrote it.
To be clear, what is your read (including strength) on Mena? If it has changed since then, no biggie but if you could remember exactly what it was at that time that would be cool.

Re: the Dunn checking the activity overview thing - I don't think it was weird. The way I see it, they had the impression that Alianna was simply townreading the highest posters, and Dunn checked the postcounts to make sure.

[Egix96]

Deltabreedy replaces Alianna.

Oop, missed this

VOTE: Delta

[Dunnstral]

You can talk about replace-outs after they happen (I think, I could be forgetting something but don't think I am). I personally think it's a good idea to never ascribe meaning to them on principle. I think it makes the game less fun but also essentially the rules right now are designed so that it is minimally possible to learn anything about the replacee from their replacing out, since they aren't allowed to say anything about it, so it's fundamentally a hard place to learn anything concrete.

Oh we can talk about this stuff? In that case, yes I think Andante is town because they replaced out, and this is a meta read based on previous Andante replace outs. I will show my work:

In Music hits of 2010-2014 Andante was town and they replaced out shortly after making this post:

cause when I go "here's my reads up to post 100" and people start attacking me like "WTF???" it's just like, chill out... reads evolve as you keep reading... but hey yall basically told me to stop so I did, and I'm here in live time

The players in that game had this to say about that replace out:

have recent past experience with andante leaving in a very similar manner as town

so yes, of course i don't

In House of the Dragon Andante was town and they replaced out shortly after making this post:

none of yall even have a legit reason to sr Johnny... I don't have many confident reads, but johnny is town, thanks.

The players in that game had this to say about that replace out:

I have been informed by datisi that andante has done the replace out when questioned before as town so I'mma slow my roll just a little bit.

VOTE: unvote

To be fair, Andante wasn’t really getting their way and they didn’t have tremendous influence, so it could be that just as it could be the back and forth.

In TM 2023 | Open: PYP S_TM Andante was mafia and they replaced out shortly after claiming VT. I don't really have a specific post to point to from andante here, but it should be noted that Andante is being pressured by several other players to finish their claim (what they picked in this setup)

The players in that game had this to say about that replace out:

Alisae we wonder if Andante is so easy to read and obviously town why are you asking if we're gonna wait?

Alisae we have a theory Andante is a scum PR that doesn't know what to guess. I can immediately cc if she guesses wrong.

Note that Andante almost immediately signed up for a new game a mere 5 hours after replacing out of that one, so there can be no argument that Andante simply did not have time to play the game.
------------

My conclusions here: Andante will replace out for 2 reasons:

1. Other players are not listening to what they are pushing and they don't like that.

2. Other players are pushing them and they don't like that.

In the first game above, they replace out for reason 1. In the 2nd and 3rd games, it is for reason 2. I think the first reason above can only come from a town perspective, while the second reason can come from either alignment. In this game, I'd argue the replace out was due to reason 1: they didn't like that their reasoning wasn't sheeped, and somebody they thought was town was eliminated instead.

So I think they replaced out for a reason, and that the reason can only come from town, and that they very rarely, if ever, actually replace out in a "nai" way, or due to real life circumstances instead of their thoughts on the current game. So Andante's slot is almost always town in this game.

[Dunnstral]

the counter wagon on him seemingly speeding up pressure to launch Enchant could be telling.

Can you point to where this happens?

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: Deltabreedy

[Dunnstral]

Hello darlin'. What can I help you with today

Damn
Would you like me to ask you a question or would that make it worse

Keep in mind that if you choose "make it worse" at some point I may decide you don't get a choice and ask the question anyway

enchant is an open wolf here please take the freebie

Great! I have assigned you a question. Your question is: was there anything behind your conviction here, except implosion's case?

VOTE: Enchant

Yeet. This may be all the content I can muster today, but yeet.

I have also assigned you a question, dear. Your question is: see question above

I think one thing I’m curious about,

@implosion

, is why you decided to make your case 24 hours after Enchant subbed in. Did you ever think about waiting a bit longer to see if Enchant would do something before accusing him? How certain were you that he was going to flip scum?

this is aisa coming into today clearly prepping to push the notion that the enchant wagon was scum-driven but scared to actually say it out loud like other people, which I would have believed more

Though I sympathise with what other people have been saying about Enchant meta, I think his alignment was ambiguous and I don't really blame people for wanting to flip there

this I just do not believe side-by-side with the agenda of the SoD questions

I find this compelling.

I don't think it is a very strong argument, personally

[Dunnstral]

if there's statistically a wolf in a group of 4 people (which your'e conceding), i think that's easier than finding 2 in a pool of 8

Okay, so it is an arbitrary distinction.

i'm not saying there's 2+ i'm saying i'm thinking htere's at least 1

(also fwiw arguing that there isn't when you're on it is +w to me)

I am explicitly not arguing this, as you already noted in this post. I'm trying to understand your thought process.

pedit b/c in the four billion games of mafia i've played, i've seen a lot more day1 wagons with wolves on them than day1 wagons with no wolves on them

Again, that's math, not scumhunting

It is usually unlikely that mafia will all take the same side on something unless it is about their own partners alignment. Enchant was town, so I think it would be weird to see all 4 mafia saying Enchant is town, or otherwise avoiding the wagon. I also think it is difficult to get a miselimination with only town voting the slot. Especially from my PoV, where I'm town but didn't vote the slot.

[Cephrir]

VOTE: Delta

[Aisa]

Hello to all our new friends! Goodbye old friends...

@sheep

let's talk about this post of yours:

Spoiler:

Hello darlin'. What can I help you with today

Damn
Would you like me to ask you a question or would that make it worse

Keep in mind that if you choose "make it worse" at some point I may decide you don't get a choice and ask the question anyway

enchant is an open wolf here please take the freebie

Great! I have assigned you a question. Your question is: was there anything behind your conviction here, except implosion's case?

VOTE: Enchant

Yeet. This may be all the content I can muster today, but yeet.

I have also assigned you a question, dear. Your question is: see question above

I think one thing I’m curious about,

@implosion

, is why you decided to make your case 24 hours after Enchant subbed in. Did you ever think about waiting a bit longer to see if Enchant would do something before accusing him? How certain were you that he was going to flip scum?

this is aisa coming into today clearly prepping to push the notion that the enchant wagon was scum-driven but scared to actually say it out loud like other people, which I would have believed more

Though I sympathise with what other people have been saying about Enchant meta, I think his alignment was ambiguous and I don't really blame people for wanting to flip there

this I just do not believe side-by-side with the agenda of the SoD questions

Re: post 913 -

hello what can I help you with today

- was in response to your naked vote on me and was the third post of this game day. I think the burden is on you to explain why this is in any way connected with any thinking I may have on the Enchant wagon.
Re: post 957 - if you think I have an agenda, which is to push that the Enchant wagon was scum driven, of course you're not gonna believe that sentence. Because that sentence is in literal contradiction with the idea that I'm gonna push that the Enchant wagon is scum driven. Idk, it's fine if you don't believe me, but idk the way you said "this I just do not believe with the agenda" almost makes me feel like you're trying to present it as objective fact that I have an agenda. (PS I don't know what SoD means though I have guesses based on context)

I feel like everyone I asked about their voting Enchant had a reasonable enough answer that I'm not gon a push them on that specifically, fwiw.

I'm gonna reread the game a bit over the next hour. Not, like, all of it, but some of the most recent pages.

[Aisa]

[...]

VOTE: Enchant

Yeet. This may be all the content I can muster today, but yeet.

This was the post I disliked out of all of them, so

VOTE: Alianna

Today's your lucky day, I guess.
[...]

Hello!

I've seen a few people criticising that specific Alianna post and I also didn't love it, but she was on V/LA due to illness at the time. I think it would be very sus otherwise, but here I think it's difficult to make much of that post. Also fyi later on she gives a brief explanation for the vote.

[Aisa]

I'm still rereading, but I think Andante / Meg is town, maybe I'm not interested in pushing implosion today, and everyone else is just swimming in a grey soup. I was still interested in pushing GuerillaWoo, but that's now Aureal and naive first impression is that her entrance is towny, so that's a headscratcher.

[Aureal]

the counter wagon on him seemingly speeding up pressure to launch Enchant could be telling.

Can you point to where this happens?

CSF put a fourth vote on you with a pretty decent argument that could've actually brought your wagon into focus as a serious thing. Instead it started getting waved off by sheep in particular as a done deal that needed to happen.

Actually, Invis NK after she was the sixth vote on Enchant could be scum trying to get us to think this sudden haste to take out Enchant was all nice and towny?

On the subject of Andante, I try not to assign ai reasons to replace puts (I think a few mods do have a rule against discussing it). It's pretty clear though that she left Team Mafia because people were very pissed at her, and I don't blame her at all. Her scum teammates literally told her not to sign up to play with them again.

[Dunnstral]

So why don't you vote sheep instead of me then?

[skitter30]

Aureal i think is townie

[Dunnstral]

On the subject of Andante, I try not to assign ai reasons to replace puts (I think a few mods do have a rule against discussing it). It's pretty clear though that she left Team Mafia because people were very pissed at her, and I don't blame her at all. Her scum teammates literally told her not to sign up to play with them again.

Alright maybe that part isn't correct then. I still believe that they do replace out for AI reasons all the time and that this game was one of them.

[Aisa]

So why don't you vote sheep instead of me then?

I'm currently in a rereading the game / considering what to do next crunch. I know you replied to me a couple days ago and you reply is on my radar as something I need to consider when I get there in the reread. Don't know what my conclusions are gonna be yet.

[Dunnstral]

That was meant to be at Aureal actually

[Aureal]

So why don't you vote sheep instead of me then?

Uh, why? If sheep was trying to make sure Enchant got flipped rather than you, surely the obvious implication would be that you're likely scum partners? Is it very likely that scum goes out of the way trying to wave a town wagon onward when the growing counterwagon is also town?

[Aisa]

Lol @ the above

The part of Andante's case on Dunn I find most interesting is the idea that maybe his lack of activity is scum-indicative. I don't know if this is true and haven't checked.

Here you go:

Spoiler:

it's hard to verify how his posting rate measures to each game without doing some fancy shit I lack the time for

I did fancy shit because why not?

Spoiler:

So, I ran all three games that you linked as well as every game that I can remember playing with Dunn through the spread sheet. Calculated Dunn's percentage of all posts made day 1 compared to how many players were in the game, then did conditional formatting to color his higher post rate games green. (because you are positing that lurk dunn = scum dunn) to then see if there is any corrolation.

The conditional formatting guessed incorrectly 4 times, got it right 1 time, and then it did not give a result on his middle of the road game.

If anything, this is wrong more then it is right, and lurk Dunn = town Dunn.

viewtopic.php?f=23&t=87781 - Chromatic Ascension, Dunn was Knight Beige
viewtopic.php?f=83&t=87638 - True Love
viewtopic.php?f=52&t=83971 - Forest Fire

some (semi-)recent samples of lurkscum Dunn
there could be others from games I didn't keep tabs on but it's hard to verify how his posting rate measures to each game without doing some fancy shit I lack the time for

-GE

I'm not lurking in the first 2 games, I'm town in the last game.

omg. If you were town in Forest fire, that would eliminate the singular correct guess based on posting habits, and it will have been wrong in every single listed game lmao

All in one place with an excel screenshot included so you can easily do your research.

I think I'm in love with that excel spreadsheet. I suppose this allays my fears about your posting patterns too

[Dunnstral]

At the end of the day you've arrived at voting me because someone else is playing scummy to you

[Aisa]

@sheep

I'm somewhat questioning ceph and implo now. I don't really think csf is town

I'm still somewhat sketchy on andante's slot tbh

ehhh im on a pretty different wavelength, I think ceph+implo are the 2 who feel the game most similarly to me in a way that's probably just villa lo l

Can you explain why they felt the game most similarly to you?

---

Invis NK after she was the sixth vote on Enchant could be scum trying to get us to think this sudden haste to take out Enchant was all nice and towny?

I do not buy this fwiw - I think Invis was killed because they were widely townread. One of the benefits of killing a consensus townread is that the NK points to no-one in particular. I'd be surprised if they were "trying" to get us to think anything.

[Aisa]

Aureal i think is townie

Interested in your reasoning

[Aureal]

At the end of the day you've arrived at voting me because someone else is playing scummy to you

At the end of the day that's a mischaracterization that makes me feel better about where my vote is.

Like even if the possible sheep association thing was absolutely the only reason I had to think you could be scum, and it's not; in a vacuum it'd be a coin flip whether to vote you or sheep to investigate the association. But it's not even a vacuum, you're getting voted already and sheep isn't so obviously it'd make more sense to vote you.