Open 878: Scarfolk Council | The End
- Aureal
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And I'm the first replacement to catch up! Yay, I win!
I feel a little better about Ceph from the skitter push on him here. Not because of all the silly "I'm so towny" stuff, but I do find some credibility in the idea that he's made his meta case on Enchant before and finds it exasperating to have to spell it out for people again.
Hmmmm. At this point I think I'm going to VOTE: Dunnstral. Still not seeing anything towny here, the only seeming to pop up to argue with people scumreading him isn't a great look, and the counter wagon on him seemingly speeding up pressure to launch Enchant could be telling."Yeah after a point it felt like Aureal was the only one talking sense despite being a goose so I just followed."
-furtiveglance- Menalque
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back later today prob, have seen nightkill but otherwise not up-to-date at all"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Egix96
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Right, I've just made it to the end of D1 (spent a couple hours skimming straight after I repped in, got as far as page 19 before having to step away due to rl stuff/sleep/etc, then finished off the rest today.
I was hoping I would have at least a few strong reads after all that, but eh, I just feel like I need to let my thoughts stew for another day or so.
But as of right now I'm kinda feeling like:
Aisa
implo
sheep
gwoo
are my prob towns, roughly strongest to weakest but none of them are like, lock town or anything.
This was the post I disliked out of all of them, soIn post 587, Alianna wrote: VOTE: Enchant
Yeet. This may be all the content I can muster today, but yeet.
VOTE: Alianna
Today's your lucky day, I guess.
Some other things I want to address:
It's not so much which questions you were asking, but the fact that you weren’t providing other content in between.In post 678, Menalque wrote:
This is an odd line to take. Do you think I’m scum then? Would I be asking different questions if I were town?In post 667, Andante wrote: mena seems to be asking questions to just “look busy”
I found this post really hard to parse, the way you wrote it.In post 846, implosion wrote: Menalque's i-have-the-solve-just-wait-and-see thing (679) is definitely peculiar. It's kind of coloring the rest of his play for me. If he's town it seems like he's keeping cards close to his chest and playing on the periphery, which is hard for me to read because I'm really not sure why he'd be acting that way as scum but I also find it hard to imagine why he'd feel the need to play this game in this way as town. I just find it peculiar. Maybe it does just make sense as scum, idk. The reason it kind of doesn't jive as just scummy is that I'm not sure why he wouldn't just be explaining things as scum, like the obvious scum motivation for being coy on the periphery is so that you can change your reads on the fly if needed but I don't really think this is a game state where scum would feel the need to do anything like that.
To be clear, what is your read (including strength) on Mena? If it has changed since then, no biggie but if you could remember exactly what it was at that time that would be cool.
Re: the Dunn checking the activity overview thing - I don't think it was weird. The way I see it, they had the impression that Alianna was simply townreading the highest posters, and Dunn checked the postcounts to make sure.- Egix96
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- Dunnstral
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Oh we can talk about this stuff? In that case, yes I think Andante is town because they replaced out, and this is a meta read based on previous Andante replace outs. I will show my work:In post 1001, implosion wrote: You can talk about replace-outs after they happen (I think, I could be forgetting something but don't think I am). I personally think it's a good idea to never ascribe meaning to them on principle. I think it makes the game less fun but also essentially the rules right now are designed so that it is minimally possible to learn anything about the replacee from their replacing out, since they aren't allowed to say anything about it, so it's fundamentally a hard place to learn anything concrete.
In Music hits of 2010-2014 Andante was town and they replaced out shortly after making this post:
The players in that game had this to say about that replace out:In post 1967, Andante wrote: cause when I go "here's my reads up to post 100" and people start attacking me like "WTF???" it's just like, chill out... reads evolve as you keep reading... but hey yall basically told me to stop so I did, and I'm here in live time
In House of the Dragon Andante was town and they replaced out shortly after making this post:In post 1996, angela wrote: have recent past experience with andante leaving in a very similar manner as town
so yes, of course i don't
The players in that game had this to say about that replace out:In post 3503, Andante wrote: none of yall even have a legit reason to sr Johnny... I don't have many confident reads, but johnny is town, thanks.
In post 3544, Thestatusquo wrote: I have been informed by datisi that andante has done the replace out when questioned before as town so I'mma slow my roll just a little bit.
VOTE: unvote
In TM 2023 | Open: PYP S_TM Andante was mafia and they replaced out shortly after claiming VT. I don't really have a specific post to point to from andante here, but it should be noted that Andante is being pressured by several other players to finish their claim (what they picked in this setup)In post 3548, Andresvmb wrote: To be fair, Andante wasn’t really getting their way and they didn’t have tremendous influence, so it could be that just as it could be the back and forth.
The players in that game had this to say about that replace out:
Note that Andante almost immediately signed up for a new game a mere 5 hours after replacing out of that one, so there can be no argument that Andante simply did not have time to play the game.In post 3399, Ythan wrote: Alisae we wonder if Andante is so easy to read and obviously town why are you asking if we're gonna wait?
Alisae we have a theory Andante is a scum PR that doesn't know what to guess. I can immediately cc if she guesses wrong.
------------
My conclusions here: Andante will replace out for 2 reasons:
1. Other players are not listening to what they are pushing and they don't like that.
2. Other players are pushing them and they don't like that.
In the first game above, they replace out for reason 1. In the 2nd and 3rd games, it is for reason 2. I think the first reason above can only come from a town perspective, while the second reason can come from either alignment. In this game, I'd argue the replace out was due to reason 1: they didn't like that their reasoning wasn't sheeped, and somebody they thought was town was eliminated instead.
So I think they replaced out for a reason, and that the reason can only come from town, and that they very rarely, if ever, actually replace out in a "nai" way, or due to real life circumstances instead of their thoughts on the current game. So Andante's slot is almost always town in this game.- Dunnstral
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Can you point to where this happens?In post 1050, Aureal wrote: the counter wagon on him seemingly speeding up pressure to launch Enchant could be telling.- Dunnstral
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VOTE: Deltabreedy- Dunnstral
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I don't think it is a very strong argument, personallyIn post 1042, Cephrir wrote:
I find this compelling.In post 1038, sheepsaysmeep wrote:In post 913, Aisa wrote: Hello darlin'. What can I help you with todayIn post 916, Aisa wrote: Keep in mind that if you choose "make it worse" at some point I may decide you don't get a choice and ask the question anywayIn post 925, Aisa wrote:
Great! I have assigned you a question. Your question is: was there anything behind your conviction here, except implosion's case?In post 819, Cephrir wrote: enchant is an open wolf here please take the freebie
I have also assigned you a question, dear. Your question is: see question aboveIn post 587, Alianna wrote: VOTE: Enchant
Yeet. This may be all the content I can muster today, but yeet.
this is aisa coming into today clearly prepping to push the notion that the enchant wagon was scum-driven but scared to actually say it out loud like other people, which I would have believed moreIn post 954, Aisa wrote: I think one thing I’m curious about,@implosion, is why you decided to make your case 24 hours after Enchant subbed in. Did you ever think about waiting a bit longer to see if Enchant would do something before accusing him? How certain were you that he was going to flip scum?
this I just do not believe side-by-side with the agenda of the SoD questionsIn post 957, Aisa wrote: Though I sympathise with what other people have been saying about Enchant meta, I think his alignment was ambiguous and I don't really blame people for wanting to flip there- Dunnstral
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It is usually unlikely that mafia will all take the same side on something unless it is about their own partners alignment. Enchant was town, so I think it would be weird to see all 4 mafia saying Enchant is town, or otherwise avoiding the wagon. I also think it is difficult to get a miselimination with only town voting the slot. Especially from my PoV, where I'm town but didn't vote the slot.In post 1023, Cephrir wrote:
Okay, so it is an arbitrary distinction.In post 1022, skitter30 wrote: if there's statistically a wolf in a group of 4 people (which your'e conceding), i think that's easier than finding 2 in a pool of 8
I am explicitly not arguing this, as you already noted in this post. I'm trying to understand your thought process.In post 1022, skitter30 wrote:i'm not saying there's 2+ i'm saying i'm thinking htere's at least 1
(also fwiw arguing that there isn't when you're on it is +w to me)
Again, that's math, not scumhuntingIn post 1022, skitter30 wrote:pedit b/c in the four billion games of mafia i've played, i've seen a lot more day1 wagons with wolves on them than day1 wagons with no wolves on them- Cephrir
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VOTE: Delta"I would prefer not to." --Herman Melville,Bartleby the Scrivener- Aisa
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Hello to all our new friends! Goodbye old friends...
@sheeplet's talk about this post of yours:
Spoiler:
Re: post 913 -hello what can I help you with today- was in response to your naked vote on me and was the third post of this game day. I think the burden is on you to explain why this is in any way connected with any thinking I may have on the Enchant wagon.
Re: post 957 - if you think I have an agenda, which is to push that the Enchant wagon was scum driven, of course you're not gonna believe that sentence. Because that sentence is in literal contradiction with the idea that I'm gonna push that the Enchant wagon is scum driven. Idk, it's fine if you don't believe me, but idk the way you said "this I just do not believe with the agenda" almost makes me feel like you're trying to present it as objective fact that I have an agenda. (PS I don't know what SoD means though I have guesses based on context)
I feel like everyone I asked about their voting Enchant had a reasonable enough answer that I'm not gon a push them on that specifically, fwiw.
I'm gonna reread the game a bit over the next hour. Not, like, all of it, but some of the most recent pages.- Aisa
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Hello!In post 1052, Egix96 wrote:[...]
This was the post I disliked out of all of them, soIn post 587, Alianna wrote: VOTE: Enchant
Yeet. This may be all the content I can muster today, but yeet.
VOTE: Alianna
Today's your lucky day, I guess.
[...]
I've seen a few people criticising that specific Alianna post and I also didn't love it, but she was on V/LA due to illness at the time. I think it would be very sus otherwise, but here I think it's difficult to make much of that post. Also fyi later on she gives a brief explanation for the vote.- Aisa
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I'm still rereading, but I think Andante / Meg is town, maybe I'm not interested in pushing implosion today, and everyone else is just swimming in a grey soup. I was still interested in pushing GuerillaWoo, but that's now Aureal and naive first impression is that her entrance is towny, so that's a headscratcher.- Aureal
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In post 1055, Dunnstral wrote:
Can you point to where this happens?In post 1050, Aureal wrote: the counter wagon on him seemingly speeding up pressure to launch Enchant could be telling.
CSF put a fourth vote on you with a pretty decent argument that could've actually brought your wagon into focus as a serious thing. Instead it started getting waved off by sheep in particular as a done deal that needed to happen.
Actually, Invis NK after she was the sixth vote on Enchant could be scum trying to get us to think this sudden haste to take out Enchant was all nice and towny?
On the subject of Andante, I try not to assign ai reasons to replace puts (I think a few mods do have a rule against discussing it). It's pretty clear though that she left Team Mafia because people were very pissed at her, and I don't blame her at all. Her scum teammates literally told her not to sign up to play with them again."Yeah after a point it felt like Aureal was the only one talking sense despite being a goose so I just followed."
-furtiveglance- Dunnstral
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So why don't you vote sheep instead of me then?- skitter30
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Aureal i think is townieShowHiatus once more.
'skitter is fucking terrifying' ~ town-bork about scum-me
'Skitter [was] terrifying to play against ngl' ~ scum-bork about town-me
'Going into lylo against scum!skit unprepared is like having someone force feed you dull razor blades. It's painful, and once it starts, you're pretty much dead' ~ NMSA
'Skitter you're a spirit animal's spirit animal' ~ slaxx- Dunnstral
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Alright maybe that part isn't correct then. I still believe that they do replace out for AI reasons all the time and that this game was one of them.In post 1063, Aureal wrote: On the subject of Andante, I try not to assign ai reasons to replace puts (I think a few mods do have a rule against discussing it). It's pretty clear though that she left Team Mafia because people were very pissed at her, and I don't blame her at all. Her scum teammates literally told her not to sign up to play with them again.- Aisa
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I'm currently in a rereading the game / considering what to do next crunch. I know you replied to me a couple days ago and you reply is on my radar as something I need to consider when I get there in the reread. Don't know what my conclusions are gonna be yet.In post 1064, Dunnstral wrote: So why don't you vote sheep instead of me then?- Dunnstral
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That was meant to be at Aureal actually- Aureal
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In post 1064, Dunnstral wrote: So why don't you vote sheep instead of me then?
Uh, why? If sheep was trying to make sure Enchant got flipped rather than you, surely the obvious implication would be that you're likely scum partners? Is it very likely that scum goes out of the way trying to wave a town wagon onward when the growing counterwagon is also town?"Yeah after a point it felt like Aureal was the only one talking sense despite being a goose so I just followed."
-furtiveglance- Aisa
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Lol @ the above
I think I'm in love with that excel spreadsheet. I suppose this allays my fears about your posting patterns tooIn post 940, Dunnstral wrote:
Here you go:In post 927, Aisa wrote: The part of Andante's case on Dunn I find most interesting is the idea that maybe his lack of activity is scum-indicative. I don't know if this is true and haven't checked.
Spoiler:
All in one place with an excel screenshot included so you can easily do your research.- Dunnstral
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At the end of the day you've arrived at voting me because someone else is playing scummy to you- Aisa
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@sheep
Can you explain why they felt the game most similarly to you?In post 943, sheepsaysmeep wrote:
ehhh im on a pretty different wavelength, I think ceph+implo are the 2 who feel the game most similarly to me in a way that's probably just villa lo lIn post 937, skitter30 wrote: I'm somewhat questioning ceph and implo now. I don't really think csf is town
I'm still somewhat sketchy on andante's slot tbh
---
I do not buy this fwiw - I think Invis was killed because they were widely townread. One of the benefits of killing a consensus townread is that the NK points to no-one in particular. I'd be surprised if they were "trying" to get us to think anything.In post 1063, Aureal wrote:Invis NK after she was the sixth vote on Enchant could be scum trying to get us to think this sudden haste to take out Enchant was all nice and towny?- Aisa
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Interested in your reasoningIn post 1065, skitter30 wrote: Aureal i think is townie- Aureal
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In post 1071, Dunnstral wrote: At the end of the day you've arrived at voting me because someone else is playing scummy to you
At the end of the day that's a mischaracterization that makes me feel better about where my vote is.
Like even if the possible sheep association thing was absolutely the only reason I had to think you could be scum, and it's not; in a vacuum it'd be a coin flip whether to vote you or sheep to investigate the association. But it's not even a vacuum, you're getting voted already and sheep isn't so obviously it'd make more sense to vote you."Yeah after a point it felt like Aureal was the only one talking sense despite being a goose so I just followed."
-furtiveglance - Aureal
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