Open 878: Scarfolk Council | The End

[Aisa]

Spoiler:

Honestly, Ceph also gives me a gut town vibe with his entrance today, and the exact flavor of his apathy. I know pretty factually based on what I know of Ceph that this is almost certainly not proper justification for a townread and I imagine he'll say he's entirely within his scumrange so far.

I like vizzy, implo, and doctor drew so far

Amusingly I now know this is 3 for 3. I don't know if that says much about skitter's alignment though.

I guess in some way here's where my paranoia of skitter stems from. When she posted her reads list, my immediate thought was "dang, that's a pretty great reads list that I agree with on essentially everything but Andante" and it made me feel good about the state of the game as being good for town. But there's also a nagging feeling that that reads list could be constructed precisely to capitalize on the way the game was going and push exactly the wrong things for town. Like, if Andante-slot is town, then this reads list essentially sets up the first two mislims of Drew and Andante back-to-back without really being contentious because both of those are the people at the bottom of her reads list that had some broad support (maybe Andante didn't have

broad

support, idk, but I think she was clearly a viable wagon).

Essentially, while that reads list reflected how I feel about all but one player, it's a read list that could potentially have a lot of utility for scum to capitalize on popular wrong reads while also being able to like, gain some distancing cred from a potential CSF or Alianna scumbuddy who is much less likely to be a wagon in the near future. And right now I think both those people are also viably scum.

I think you are the one with the weird take. Why would you ignore day one and go after the lowest post counts instead?

Yes I was asking why I was getting voted yesterday, and in response one person said they were in full survival mode, another said they were big brain, and a third didn't respond to me and then rage quit when they didn't get their way

Yes I agree that Menalque is town. I also think Andante slot, now meg, is probably town.

I mean... "going after the lowest post counts" is in a very literal sense not ignoring day one. And also I'm not going after "the lowest post counts", I'm going after you. Ceph has a lower post count and I'm not going after him right now. As I described, I had liked your opening and it felt like you dropped off a cliff and unlike Ceph who it feels like has been always present but disconnected, you've been entirely-not-here for days at a time and it feels like there are vast swathes of the game that you never experienced. Ceph has given an aura of having a hard time getting into the game, and the automatic response to that on d1 was to give him space to do so; your entrance gave the impression that you felt engaged by the game given that you had a material read on Alianna but then you vanished into thin air.

Like, if Andante-slot is town, then this reads list essentially sets up the first two mislims of Drew and Andante back-to-back without really being contentious because both of those are the people at the bottom of her reads list that had some broad support (maybe Andante didn't have broad support, idk, but I think she was clearly a viable wagon).

But they opened today by voting Cephrir, so how are they trying to set up Andante?

First I want to emphasize: I am not saying skitter is doing this. My full read on skitter right now is "idk". I'm trying to explain why I think her play can be consistent with scum; essentially I think her reads list could come from town because I agreed with it broadly and it could come from scum because this sort of utility could come from it.

With that out of the way: 1, my point isn't about today. Scum don't need to follow through on a plan that they made in the middle of day 1 at the start of day 2. But 2, I think this question has a simple answer: Andante has been replaced overnight by someone who has yet to catch up, and claimed a PR between skitter's reads list (at least I think it was afterward, too lazy to check) and now. It'd be pretty wild for skitter to launch into today guns blazing for Andante with those factors in mind.

Yeahh ok this is someone who probably actually believes these reads. implosion can have a townread for now.

The skitt vs ceph stuff is also interesting but I need more brainpower than I have right now to understand it fully

[Umlaut]

Vote Count 2.2

Scarfolk Council had a few problems with outsiders, or “Scarfnots” as they were known, interfering in town affairs throughout the 1970s, so it developed a scheme to encourage civic discretion.

The severity of punishment for a “loose tongue” more or less guaranteed obedience, though a few Black Spot cards were issued.

For example, four year old Jeremy Chapped inadvertently discussed with his “Scarfnot” trepanning teacher the sudden, inexplicable appearances of ancient megaliths in schools and community centres, and found himself facing capital punishment.

In lieu of this penalty he pushed an unloved aunt in the path of a speeding hovercraft for which he received not only a cub scout badge, but also a £5 book token from the mayor.

---

Deltabreedy (3):

Egix96, Dunnstral, Cephrir

Dunnstral (2):

Aisa, Aureal

Aisa (1):

sheepsaysmeep

Cephrir (1):

skitter30

Not voting (4):

implosion, MegAzumarill, Menalque, Deltabreedy

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to launch.

Deadline:

(expired on 2023-06-13 14:00:00)

[sheepsaysmeep]

a

[sheepsaysmeep]

I sort of disagree with cephrir saying that the "hunting on the wagon" approach is NAI but I think it's genuinely just not worth the effort to keep writing about, like I tried but it's a really minor thing for me

[sheepsaysmeep]

I think dunn saying like, "all the mafia wouldnt want to be on the same side, some on-wagon some off-wagon" was the best it's been presented and the first time I was like meh I get it

[sheepsaysmeep]

I just think like, obviously statistically there is wolf, but relatively the wagon felt very town-driven. like I think this wagon has way less of an expected value of wolves contained than the average d1 wagon on a villager so I think "since we know there's a wolf on the wagon let's focus there" is agendaly misapplied to this game

I infact think youre far more likely to find wolf off-wagon, for whiteknighty reasons + if there are people who didnt get the enchant!wolf push, that feels legit a little >rand w

Why exactly is it that you think this wagon was so much less likely to have scum on it?

pedit: g'whoa, implosionmath

im lazy to write a ton about this but we were just on a very similar wavelength. I just had a confident perception while being there like this direction of the game is good and town-driven/lots of towns vibing here and the sudden push away from enchant when he didn't do anything feels wolf-driven. but I feel like, enough people perceived it differently that there have to be a decent number of villagers on the opposite side and maybe my worldview is based on very flawed stuff so I am. feeling weird about these aspects of my logic

[Cephrir]

I think dunn saying like, "all the mafia wouldnt want to be on the same side, some on-wagon some off-wagon" was the best it's been presented and the first time I was like meh I get it

I do feel like most players know this is a popular perception and would consider doing the opposite for that reason

[Egix96]

[...]

VOTE: Enchant

Yeet. This may be all the content I can muster today, but yeet.

This was the post I disliked out of all of them, so

VOTE: Alianna

Today's your lucky day, I guess.
[...]

Hello!

I've seen a few people criticising that specific Alianna post and I also didn't love it, but she was on V/LA due to illness at the time. I think it would be very sus otherwise, but here I think it's difficult to make much of that post. Also fyi later on she gives a brief explanation for the vote.

Hmm that is kinda awkward yeah

Also I am finding it kinda weird that both Dunn and Ceph decided to follow me when I've practically only just got here.

Still, I wanna see if Delta has any thoughts from catching up before I consider moving elsewhere.

[sheepsaysmeep]

Egix can u describe ur strong Aisa townread

[Menalque]

Jesus that’s a lot of replacements

[Menalque]

they were just the weirdest around enchant

andante behavior is explained by townreading enchant

menalque technically has an explanation as like that whole "I solved the game via these tests" thing that I still dont know what to think about

aisa sort of calls enchant wolfy but then does a bunch of weird stuff I think wolf might do in a dadv situation

(1) is it? I think andante behaviour is still questionable even with enchant flip, I just no longer think that we should auto-flip the slot like we should have if enchant had redded

(2) like what? I skimmed your iso and saw you talk about her play today but I don’t think I saw detail on what it was from yesterday

[Menalque]

I’m going to start bringing a large stick on the Metro and using it to break the equipment of any musician who decides they want to play something I’m then forced to listen to instead of peacefully being able to tune out the world with my own music

[Menalque]

I read ceph/skitt in ISO and i think ceph looks significantly worse although don’t feel exactly confident that he’s scum

I think he doesn’t look clearly town tho by any means and the main thing I dislike is the assertion that he both was yesterday (from his enchant vote which looked good so long as enchant was scum but looks less so given the green) and I don’t think the argument he’s making that he looks obviously town today and therefore skitt!scum for not seeing that

My point of hesitation is that idrk if town!ceph would believe that about himself despite his posts being pretty thin on the ground

VOTE: ceph

[Deltabreedy]

Apologies for the delay in me catching up. It was a this morning task that I set for myself but my capacity is currently all taken up by trying not to die from food poisoning.

Keen on understanding the sudden swathe of votes on my slot, because I don't really get it?

[Deltabreedy]

Im also not overly fond of the assignment of AI-motives to replace outs, although I think my knee jerk reaction of not liking it is more that I just disagree with the assertion rather than finding it scummy.

[skitter30]

Aureal i think is townie

Interested in your reasoning

Good vibes from her rep-in

[skitter30]

I read ceph/skitt in ISO and i think ceph looks significantly worse although don’t feel exactly confident that he’s scum

I think he doesn’t look clearly town tho by any means and the main thing I dislike is the assertion that he both was yesterday (from his enchant vote which looked good so long as enchant was scum but looks less so given the green) and I don’t think the argument he’s making that he looks obviously town today and therefore skitt!scum for not seeing that

My point of hesitation is that idrk if town!ceph would believe that about himself despite his posts being pretty thin on the ground

VOTE: ceph

Yeah i'm wondering if the sr on my part was at least a bit motivated by being annoyed, i'm not sure how scummy i find it rn

I kinda want to vote sheep ngl

Feel better @delta

[Dunnstral]

Also I am finding it kinda weird that both Dunn and Ceph decided to follow me when I've practically only just got here.

[Menalque]

I read ceph/skitt in ISO and i think ceph looks significantly worse although don’t feel exactly confident that he’s scum

I think he doesn’t look clearly town tho by any means and the main thing I dislike is the assertion that he both was yesterday (from his enchant vote which looked good so long as enchant was scum but looks less so given the green) and I don’t think the argument he’s making that he looks obviously town today and therefore skitt!scum for not seeing that

My point of hesitation is that idrk if town!ceph would believe that about himself despite his posts being pretty thin on the ground

VOTE: ceph

Yeah i'm wondering if the sr on my part was at least a bit motivated by being annoyed, i'm not sure how scummy i find it rn

I kinda want to vote sheep ngl

Feel better @delta

Why sheep?

[Menalque]

Also just quickly to mention — andy just repped out of my TM game after being frustrated with her partner(s?) and I don’t think the rep out from the slot was AI

[skitter30]

I read ceph/skitt in ISO and i think ceph looks significantly worse although don’t feel exactly confident that he’s scum

I think he doesn’t look clearly town tho by any means and the main thing I dislike is the assertion that he both was yesterday (from his enchant vote which looked good so long as enchant was scum but looks less so given the green) and I don’t think the argument he’s making that he looks obviously town today and therefore skitt!scum for not seeing that

My point of hesitation is that idrk if town!ceph would believe that about himself despite his posts being pretty thin on the ground

VOTE: ceph

Yeah i'm wondering if the sr on my part was at least a bit motivated by being annoyed, i'm not sure how scummy i find it rn

I kinda want to vote sheep ngl

Feel better @delta

Why sheep?

He feels kinda like he's coasting on being tr

[Egix96]

Egix can u describe ur strong Aisa townread

It's mainly because of the reaction test she performed on GWoo (331 to 347)

Plus I felt town vibes from 490 and 573.

[Egix96]

Im also not overly fond of the assignment of AI-motives to replace outs, although I think my knee jerk reaction of not liking it is more that I just disagree with the assertion rather than finding it scummy.

I'm in the same boat, it's just that for me it's because I also play on a site which has more strict OGI rules with regards to subouts.

[Cephrir]

[...]

VOTE: Enchant

Yeet. This may be all the content I can muster today, but yeet.

This was the post I disliked out of all of them, so

VOTE: Alianna

Today's your lucky day, I guess.
[...]

Hello!

I've seen a few people criticising that specific Alianna post and I also didn't love it, but she was on V/LA due to illness at the time. I think it would be very sus otherwise, but here I think it's difficult to make much of that post. Also fyi later on she gives a brief explanation for the vote.

Hmm that is kinda awkward yeah

Also I am finding it kinda weird that both Dunn and Ceph decided to follow me when I've practically only just got here.

Still, I wanna see if Delta has any thoughts from catching up before I consider moving elsewhere.

I'm not following you, I already talked about why I think that slot is scum and my other suspects don't seem to be as popular

[implosion]

Catching up out of order.


I saw skitter say sheep is coasting. Strongly disagree that sheep is coasting off the townread. I feel like he keeps posting new ideas, like 1021 and 1038 on Aisa. He immediately responded to Aureal's reads post calling it towny. His thoughts are evolving with the game, he isn't coasting. I also think 1038's Aisa scum reasoning has merit.

Like i said before, i find it easier to look for 1 scum in 4 than 2 scum in 6 (b/c the pool is smaller and there's fewer slots to look at), so i'm approaching it this way, whether or not it's mathematically correct

Sure. It's fine to want a pool to focus on. Why pick the on-wagon votes instead of, say, your 4 biggest prior scumreads?

Also for the third paragraph, i don't get it. If there's 1/6 of a chance of 0 scum onwagon, there's 5/6 of not 0 scum on-wagon (i.e. that there is a scum on wagon), so this seems like a good place to look

Yes, the point is that there's 5/6 of not 0 scum in

any

randomly chosen pool of 4 people from any townie's point of view. Those are the baseline odds. So you should think that there's even *greater* odds than 5/6 before you're willing to say "this group of 4 people is a good one to narrow my search to", because otherwise you might as well pick the alphabetically earliest four non-confirmed players fypov and you'd have equal 5/6 odds of at least 1 scum.

I found this post really hard to parse, the way you wrote it.
To be clear, what is your read (including strength) on Mena? If it has changed since then, no biggie but if you could remember exactly what it was at that time that would be cool.

At that point I didn't know how to read him, at this point I'm inclined to call him somewhat town. Certainly not locktown.