Open 878: Scarfolk Council | The End

[Cephrir]

hi fire! im glad to see you're still around. unfortunately you have replaced scum and i'm not going to allow your storied charisma to shake me off

[fireisredsir]

im somewhere around here but it's murky

[sheep, ceph, aisa]
[dunn, meg]
[aureal, egix]
[skitter, mena, implosion]

sometimes when i replace in i feel like i have the game solved (or at least a really confident read or two) and i think ive been decently accurate when i have that feeling?

i do not have that feeling here. i think there's still a lot of sorting to do. i am not particularly confident in any of my scumleans and there's not anyone i'd bet the game on being town either

however, that probably means the game is hard which does lend me the tiniest bit of confidence i guess since it would be a hard game if my scumleans are correct

[fireisredsir]

hi fire! im glad to see you're still around. unfortunately you have replaced scum and i'm not going to allow your storied charisma to shake me off

hi ceph! i am glad as well (i appreciate that <3)

im too lazy to find it rn but do you remember the game recently when you did a thing where you were like "im gonna do an iso of this person and make up reasons why they're scum and then maybe end up convincing myself of the case"

maybe im biased bc i know it's wrong but your post on alianna kind of felt like that except minus the self-aware framing

i am leaning town but i would like to hear i guess what your mindset was after doing the iso and is my feeling of the comparison accurate at all or did you have conviction in the read right away after doing the iso?

i guess mostly wondering when and where and why exactly you became confident

[Cephrir]

i do recall this thing

i became persuaded while doing it - there's just, no organic scumhunting coming from her that i can see

that said now that im looking at it again i do realize that i've become more set on this than my case actually warrants

[Cephrir]

the double sub out does not help

[fireisredsir]

was it the next holder of the slot that solidified your opinion or the replace out or what

[fireisredsir]

i mean yeah fair i guess

[fireisredsir]

do you still think skitter is scum

[Cephrir]

she's still on my radar so, kinda

[Cephrir]

here i'll just make a list off the top of my head. maybe i should iso myself later to remember what my opinions are, ive honestly just been waiting for your slot to die

{menalque, mega (where are you tho?)}
{dunnstral, sheep (i think? i forget), implosion}
{egix, aureal}
{skitter, aisa}
{fire}


i am so checked out of this game that i started isoing the enchant slot to remember what my read on it is. wow

[Cephrir]

maybe bump egix down one. my reason for townreading csf didn't pan out

[fireisredsir]

does the confidence on mena come from his worldbuilding thing he did or is there more to it

i wasn't really that impressed by it but i dunno

[Cephrir]

yeah i thought it wasn't super likely to come from someone who knows enchant is going to flip town

[fireisredsir]

from my (admittedly not that well-researched) knowledge of mena's scumgame that seems pretty in his wheelhouse

i think of his main skills as being able to vibe real-time and successfully posture/front when he wants to seem confident in a solve

it's more effort than he's put into scumgames recently but eh

[Cephrir]

good to know. i haven't seen it much

[fireisredsir]

my biggest issue rn is that the 3 people im most interested in are also people that i think are easier to solve with a "wait and see" approach

thats why i was thinking i was probably gonna vote dunn until i got to his post about andante, and now i think he's probably town

so im not sure what to do

[Aureal]

So Ceph, if the double-replacement seriously affects your attitude towards a slot, what are you going to think if Andante/Meg becomes someone else too?

[Cephrir]

I won't care

[Cephrir]

As gotcha attempts go that one is a 1/10

[Aureal]

Why does it matter for one slot but not the other?

[Aisa]

What are your reads other than Dunn, Aureal?

[implosion]

I'm getting very thrown off by the grinding wheel of replacements.

Regarding Menalque 1136 re: Andante, I don't think it's like "oh, Andante might have reacted badly to the pressure on her so we can't rule out her being town". It's more "Andante reacted to the pressure exactly how I'd expect her to react to the pressure as, well, either alignment". I don't think that it's really alignment-indicative and that's not really the main point I'm making in the post you quoted. Like, you give no reason why her being "overly sensitive" is scum-indicative. You just say "the fact she could have reacted this way as town isn't clearing" and yeah, it's not

clearing

, the slot isn't

clear

, but it is a reason to not call her scum for that. And after that you talk about her reads being bad but that also has no tie to alignment on d1 as far as I'm concerned. I think it's eminently possible for people to have townread Enchant yesterday as town, etc. I just feel like you're throwing out a lot of "this could come from Andante-scum, so it's not clearing" but I don't see anything that's more likely to come from scum and I do see things more likely to come from town, it's not just "Andy is indignant and irritated". Like the exact way and timing with which she pushed Enchant isn't coherent with her being scum IMO, it's just like some risk no reward. I kind of feel like you're talking past me and now I'm talking past you.

[implosion]

Yes, but also there are certain regions of my brain that are not very good at remembering that, so it all remains to be seen!

...town post?

Why does it matter for one slot but not the other?

Not to answer in Ceph's stead but as someone who would have given the same answers to those questions so far as Ceph, it matters for one slot but not the other because I townread the Andante slot and scumread the Alianna slot. If a slot I already townread gets replaced twice my gut reaction is "oh okay sure whatever". If a slot I scumread, and then got replaced and i scumread the replacement (note: i didn't have any read on deltabreedy's posting but it didn't assuage the alianna scumread), and then that slot gets replaced again, then well my gut emotional reaction would be "fuck that, this slot is scum, I'm not putting in the effort to read a

third

person when i already scumread the first two"

With all that said, I do have that reaction toward fire a bit. I'm happy to interact with fire directly at some point as they say they want, it's probably valuable to do so regardless of the slot's alignment. Right now my feelings are that I'm still okay just limming fire unless fire becomes like super ultra obvious town (and I nullread their play

so far

more or less, though with some bias toward reading it as scum because of the slot). But I'd also be quite happy to run up Egix right now.

[Egix96]

But I'd also be quite happy to run up Egix right now.

Whatcha need?

[skitter30]

Content and involvement