Mini Normal 2309 - Neighborhood PT

[bob3141]

Hi

[bob3141]

yep im town.

[bob3141]

not a statisitical read but civil is day slightly prob town. He had the first flash wagon hit him and that hits town more scum when compared with the base odds of 3/13 of a player being scum

[bob3141]

is not worth town reading but it is a resonable reliable marker.

Its all based on game theory. town are generaly freer with rvs votes, while scum try and avoid associations to early. So scum are more likely than town to hold off voting if there buddy is already at 3 votes. Some scum will but the ratio will be less than when a player is town.

doesnt rule out them as scum but the lower odds makes the first pass at solving using game theory easier

[bob3141]

mm Nurse claimed bulletproof. I do wonder if this is going to be another vig game

[bob3141]

First impression is happy is town

[bob3141]

I think bazuf is scum

[bob3141]

How he jumped on bella. Plus another marker thats not 100% reliable

Felt very much like a stretch with hint over justification for the stage of the game. More like someone trying to make a case then sort. With the resulting over explanation to justify it.

As it was based on bella comparing 2 players to a base line rather than meta read. (almost wrote meat read)

And then goes into a stretch that this imply bella must be informed and thus scum.

[bob3141]

null

[bob3141]

gut tell me civil is one of those death tunnelers.

also naerys has great odd of being scum. looks like a new player on their first scum game

[bob3141]

We are in neighbourhood as thats what we rolled. They can be both s/t and t/t. Also if your talking here then your role does have neighbor in it

[bob3141]

Its generaly a weakened mason as you dont know if the person your talking to is actualy town and not scum. It sometimes also exists to weaken roles like TA. e.g. 2 neighbours and 3 scum

[bob3141]

Yep thats pretty much how neighbourhoods go lol. Until the very end every one is unsure if they are simply aving a nice chat with teh otehr team


Well then scum would be in for surprise if they do NK me. Ive got one of those snakes in yar by teh door

[bob3141]

What do you mean by that?

I might spend the time hiding if i can. and leave those prank snake jars behind in my house

[bob3141]

i was just joking about the hider. just hinting i had visiting role.


gunsmith here

[bob3141]

That a physiologist a gunsmith checks if they have gun. So roles like goon, gunsmith, vig, pgo (if it was normal) come up positove where as scum doc comes up as fake clear

[bob3141]

I think dragon is town this game

[bob3141]

Prob right as origionaly my first action was going to gunsmith you to see if i could clear you and turn this hood into defacto masonary.

yep im gated. odd night will prob be able to get at most 2 results. Since we have vig and gunsmith then theere is good chance scum have a doc. I doubt we have a second gunsmith as i think im just the half town power role

[bob3141]

could be a red herring, to early to say

but it is bit odd claiming that they are bulletproof as if they were that would undo the very value of the role. As from his pov he would have no idea that their is a vig

[bob3141]

i should also be able to gunsmith Nurse. As town millers have no gun so if they have a gun its means they are scum.

Doesnt rule out them being a scum doc so its not 100% clear but it would be 100% guilty

[bob3141]

im starting to think as well naerys might just be new too although ill keep the pressure on them for bit longer. If they were scum i would expect either more pushing that way (stronger player bussing) or some sign that there partners might be giving them hints in the pvt. For now i want to see who else bites on the Naerys wagon

[bob3141]

So what do you think on civil vig claim

[bob3141]

Also does you vig have a gating

[bob3141]

i dont get the claim as even for town its baiting a vig kill. im wondering with we have even and odd night vig. Would explain the bp

seen such setups before but not often. I think in that games i saw the scum had a doc and bp

[bob3141]

im worried about civil shooting me lol. He has been in tunnel since the start of the game, even takes my jokes as role fishing. If pr dies n1 without any claims then sure suspect me but i would never be seen role fishing as scum. Before i think i had 50% hit rate for town pr as scum.

[bob3141]

JK could go either way. 2 shot gating is the usual gating for scum pr but you sometimes have town with that gating too.

[bob3141]

Its a case of self resolving slot as scum would prob shoot there as it can either protect or roleblock scum

[bob3141]

Pc is so obvous scum . COmes assusing me of not solving or sorting yet all he has done is push my slot and omgus civil. No attempt to sort, just attempts to get misexecutions through

[bob3141]

at the moment my solve is pc, kim and yimmy

[bob3141]

kim seems to be skirting around my convoluted logic trying to avoid scum reading pc. were it really only points to town starfire and bella. As from last vote count they were lead two wagons and pc was trailing with little support. In case of deadline flash execution pc would be at little risk

[bob3141]

yep would prob be good idea.


kim feels very defensive. since his read list on 10th augs that pretty much had 3 scum reads on low hanging fruit most of his posts have just been commentry but no analysis. pretty normaly to explain onces scum reads when asked yet he isnt. And is falling back on read my iso when his iso has little justification for them

[bob3141]

lookers is basicly a doctor in name only. If looker was bussed it was pretty foolish of the scum team

[bob3141]

Glad I was right on Greeting/Looker. I'm afraid I might be night killed for it. Since scum have a doctor do you think RN is town?

hard to tell as if you and civil are both town then it would imply that scum need some sort of counter play e.g. bp

[bob3141]

lol i cant beleive PC still think im scum. Like why would i push kim for their fence sitting, infact encouraging them to actualy vote looker.

luckily for town that role pc claimed doesnt exist

[bob3141]

also atleast day 2 ill know if your town or not for sure. As im now pretty much defacto cop when it comes to clearing players.

[bob3141]

dont be silly. But my role does get a clear now if i dont land on scum so trying to figure its best use this night

i was saying scum would always nk me now if they knew my role.

[bob3141]

gone and plyed it safe as its better i get a clear than guilty. As although i dont expect the game to have roles other than vig i can flase guilty, there is still very small chance

[bob3141]

dann flower being a cop makes it very likely kim is scum. they have a gun

i cant see town having more gun roles with 2 vigs and cop. even if civil is faking thats still 2 false positives and one false inno in the game

[bob3141]

yep they also sat in the second bussing position e-3

saw this in my last completed game. i repped in day 3 and greeting had been executed and there partners dragon and furt were at e-3 and e-2. With it happening a day before deadline


sp molla has good partner equity with kim and greeting/looker

[bob3141]

allot of roles can have guns but disloyal doc rules out a fair few as does dann flipping cop

[bob3141]

In Normal games on mafiascum.net, a Gunsmith gets guilties on all Mafia (except Traitors and Doctors), Cops, Vigilantes, Gunsmiths, Role Cops, Vanilla Cops, PT Cops, Vengefuls, Detectives, Neapolitans, Backups of roles with guns and JoATs that have any of these listed powers.

thats teh rar info

doct rules out rolecop,

vig rules out vig, vengful

cop rules out another cop or gunsmith. also the neap as it sits on same ground

[bob3141]

thats leaves vannilla cop, pt cop, dect and back up

as rough rule town has 3.5 medium pr to scum 0.5

a cop is worth 2-3 ungated and one shot novice cop with miller is prob 1

[bob3141]

all the gated role make it unlikely that town would have a vannilla cop

[bob3141]

scum have a false inno vs me
and we know town has atleast 2 false guiltys.

adding more then even civil would make the role near worthless

[bob3141]

since the cop is one shot teh miller is more neutral than negatve utility. As miller usualy claim and dann only had one shot anyway.

roles-

odd nigth gunsmith 1/2
even vig 0.75-1
one shot cop 1

claims

bp miller. 0-0.5?
2 shot jk 0.5-1?

2.75-3.75


if town has any power left beyond civil. then its prob a follower/tracker types roll

[bob3141]

in prior game i played

full gunsmith
even cop
one-shot tracker
odd nights vig
informed miller

vs

scum even night rb
odd nights doc

so 2 flase guiltys and one false inno

[bob3141]

i think im going to have to claim.

ive got pc tunneling me last day. naerys is too rookie to read the thread right and nurse is in a gamblers logical falsy. plys scum kim. thats 4 there plus one more scum equal 5

[bob3141]

well we got kim but i had to claim the counter my wagon forming before i could get kim to claim. Also to avoid claiming my role first i had to let on that your were my neighbour.

they claimed rolestopper and they dont have guns.

[bob3141]

yep very frustrating.

[bob3141]

for some reason they were demanding a roleclaim from me first. which is just silly as im not a cop. So letting scum know your role allows them to fake claim better. They would of prob run me up to e-1 if i hadnt partial claimed lol

Even then happy if he was town was after my gating.

[bob3141]

Hopefully naerys is on you? I wish we had more time to plan for tomorrow in thread. I'm thinking of just shooting BB tonight. You?

i think its a decent shot. bbmola went after me and completly ignored the case against kim. Much in the same way kim was doing.

If they are town then they are prob going to be hindrance in elo.

[bob3141]

So at worst you get rid of misexecution

[bob3141]

yep will be working on my final reads latter today.

but for now my cheif scum read is bbmola with how they were fighting my case against kim. And when they repped in the first thing they did was say they would not vote for kim

Plus bella was town reading greeting before they got repped. Plus no attempt to sort either kim or greeting. yet a town read and reading kim as fine

[bob3141]

i think happy as town as i doubt he would of pushed his town read on both his buddies in the same post 240 so early in the game.

civil/greeting is def not s/s

[bob3141]

last game with scum greeting he mentioned one of his partners but ignored the other. so im think the partner is not going to be someone greeting interacted with directly

[bob3141]

if its not bbmole then prob one of pc/yimmy

im pretty sure nurse and civil are town

[bob3141]

i think dragons end of dayone action point to town. he switched wagon momentum from CP to looker and since scum should of known from looker disloyal modifier that town had gunsmith/follower/tracker. It would be reckless for scum to bus looker if pc was town.

so the first 4 votes Naerys, Dannflor, Political Clout, Save The Dragons on looker are prob town

[bob3141]

I think bella was even trying to poke PC scum read of me. They started saying i was to low, followed by greeting but never did any defense of me but instead simply ask pc about his read. Whereas they were actively defending greeting.


if the team is greeting/looker + kim +bella/bbmole i kind feel sorry for them as its not gone well for them

[bob3141]

This is interesting. i dont get why scum would try and shoot me before nearys. They should of been able to work out that im odd nights from the fact that their rolestopper was odd nights

yep it was bb that fliped that slot from town to scum too. be funny if Kims partner hadnt logged on before day 2 had already finsihed. I would hate to have game were i had to try an dget through 3 misexecutions

[bob3141]

i think they want naerys a s misexecution.

[bob3141]

but ill have 1/7 chance of solving the game the very moment i enter the dead thread lol

[bob3141]

there is really only one long shot to avoid dieing n3. claim n1 and n4 gunsmith

[bob3141]

i suppose i could try one shot. get bit of sinergy with fact the cop was one shot and try and make scum think town has another one shot invest ability like a tracker

[bob3141]

synergy

[bob3141]

prob easier to just go with 2 shot. as i have an excusse why i havnt got result as nearys already said they jk me

[bob3141]

i think the last scum is just PC

[bob3141]

if civil is just a vt

even vig 1
odd gunsmith 1/2
2 shot complex jk 1/2
1 shot novice cop 1

so that guestimation of 3 for town power

lazy novice tracker in a vig hame would have a max of n2,n3,n4,n5 so prob betwen 0.5-0.75

vs scum 1/2

3.75 v 0.5 seems rightish. town would need something extra if nurse was scum.

[bob3141]

ive said im 2 shot.


want see how diferent players react. if naerys doesnt blink i think it confirms their role. either way if civil isnt fake clamining . then the last scum is prob in the pr claims

[bob3141]

do you mean if there is a mass claim

[bob3141]

why do you not want to true claim at that point

[bob3141]

i dont think it really matters as your last shot just pushes the game to mylo and scum are in really weak position with only one scum left.


but what we do need know is civils slot true claim.

[bob3141]

again it doesnt hurt to true claim. If you die n3 then i still surive into day 4. Producing one clear or guilty.

And fake claimign will actively hurt the town if your town

[bob3141]

Does tracker have a gun by the way? Did rn change his claim as scum to have a reason to have a gun?

trackers dont have guns but the role fits

if civil sticks to his claim. then the last scum is within pr claims

[bob3141]

my reads still put pc up top. but the idea you would want to claim vt during a mass claim does make me doubt you. as if pc is town then minus your claim you would be in interesting dynamic with civil

greeting/kim spew happy as town
nurse is prob town and the claim is a good one. I got hint of paranoia from them. teh sort of thing you get when a player has faced twon you twice as scum.
Civil feels town to me plus greeting/civil doesnt look s/s
dragon acted as king maker on the looker execution.
i know im town
naerys feels liek newb town

that leaves pc,yimmy and you. with naerys being sort before elo

[bob3141]

if civil says he was just baiting a nk then that clears you.

but you being even nights does weaken teh scum roleblocker. as its only use is vs me.

the oneshot cop would act during n2. rolsetopper during evens can only stop looker from being rb.
if your an even vig it cant protect looker or third scum from teh night kill


so its not clear cut.

[bob3141]

though an interesting thing is that the rolestopper nullifies the tracker on odd nights. so max tracker actions are n2,n4. so if town is in effect a fancy oneshot tracker

[bob3141]

bullet proof would fit with all pr. but all the pr claims he cant be vig. shame they are voting up a play thats on vla lol

as there is allot of townvtown pr interference.

[bob3141]

going to make a list of all claimed pr as 6 is allot. What complicates things is that all the gattings makes it hard to judge the strength of each pr.

scum team

Goon
Disloyal doc
odd nigh rolestopper

Town

novice one shot doc
odd night gunsmith neighbour

Town pr claims

Complex 2 shot JK
Novice lazy tracker
even vig neighbour
2 shot vig or bullet proof or vt

__

Known VT = I

[bob3141]

for things as they are im going assume dragon, yimmy, happy are all vts

[bob3141]

i think either way we are goign to have to have mass claim. Even if scum kill you i still surive and get a clear.

[bob3141]

looks like the last scum is just civil slot. His rep in is refusing to claim

and the last scum is always either pc or on the day 1 pc wagon

[bob3141]

if you want to claim you can do but as things are there is no real need. Just needed some of the vt to claim to put more pressure to claim on the CV slot when rep would rep in

[bob3141]

problem is cv def needs to be resolved today. you might as well claim as everyone else has. no need for gatting though just that your gated

[bob3141]

the problem is slot has decided to be uncooperative

[bob3141]

going to unvote for now as i want pc slot to claim first. Then you can claim gated vig. Then we just flip iambrad

If they are town then they are being activly anti town and slot always flips at some point

[bob3141]

with iambrad claim your now confirmed with slight possibility you were scum doing supper elaborate gambit/pocketing attempt ruled out. As town power would be to low with your being town

claim how you want as vig or vt neighbour. just make sure if needed to can point to crumb when you true claim

[bob3141]

I kinda let yimmy coast. I'd be okay with voting them too

same here. Not allot to go on with that slot. There action wre very much anti-scum but that doesnt make those action pro-town.

Could simply be a failure for scum to take action rather than town play

[bob3141]

ill be voting yimmy in a bit but think iambrad goign to end up todays execution. Cant see happy, naerys or nurse shifting so it would prob end up the execution to avoid no execution

[bob3141]

Going to gunsmith worst during the night although i expect to be the night kill.

[bob3141]

nearys, me, you and nurse are def town

that just leaves 5 with 1 scum and 3 misexecutions. so i think town really only needs to figure out one town in those 5 and town wins. So scum will def kill me as one clear leaves it pretty much in auto win mode

[bob3141]

Either he is town and thinks your the vig or he is scum and sure there is a vig.


From the very start he was hinting that there could be vig in vts

[bob3141]

lazy cant track if there is only one scum left.

[bob3141]

i think the most likely scum is worst/pc slot. they worked hard to extend the execution pool day 3.

Cant see dragon mbeing scum. Either way keeping the lim pool with in worst/dragon/iambrad i think wins the game