Open 885: Backup6 [Day 1]

[Dannflor]

aureal what do you think i should look for specifically in black's town game that is different from her scum game

[Generic]

You know what, before I head to bed I’m calling it.

Aurreal and black scum team.

Yeet these wolfy mofos.

[Ircher]

Day 1 VC #3

Black

(2): T3 (36), Dannflor (96)

CCGeek

(2): Aureal (35), camelCasedSnivy (66)

Dannflor

(1): Black (108)

Generic

(1): iamveryhappy (89)

Not Voting

(3): Dunnstral, Generic, CCGeek (101)

With 9 alive, it takes five votes to fade a player.

Deadlines

This phase will end on Sunday, October 1, 2023 7:00 PM CDT (GMT-5:00) or in 3 days, 18 hours, 48 minutes.

Moderator Notes

1: If you have regular weekend V/LA, you must either notify me each time or set V/LA tags each time.
2: Let me know if you spot any errors in the vote count or voting history. I am trying out a new tool for recording the voting history.
3: Let me know if you go by a different pronoun than listed.

Pronoun Key

1. camelCasedSnivy : he / him / his
2. T3 : he / him / his
3. Black : she / her / her
4. Aureal : she / her / her
5. Dunnstral : unspecified / unspecified / unspecified
6. Dannflor : he / him / his
7. CCGeek : he / him / his
8. iamveryhappy : he / him / his
9. Generic : unspecified / unspecified / unspecified

[Dunnstral]

Can I get everyone to give me their mafia experience/background/record?

Let’s put it like this:

Estimated completed games:
Have you had victories in a mafia team?:
Favourite alignment:

If a first game just declare yourself a n00b

Estimated completed games: It's got to be over 100
Have you had victories in a mafia team?: Yes
Favourite alignment: Third party, otherwise town

[Generic]

Dunnstral town.

They are like a young me.

[Dunnstral]

I think Black is scum.

I scum read the tone on Black's entrance like some other people did but her response to her wagon and to me in particular has solidified that read a lot.

Generic trying to read and solve already is probably a good sign?

Some people had a bad reaction to this, for good reason. It's a read that apologizes for itself. When people roll mafia they can often enter a game with a bit of a sense of subconscious guilt. The red role PM weighs on their conscience. It might seem ridiculous to read this much into a "probably" and a "?," but combined with the fact that Black seems like a fairly confident player, I think it betrays someone who is (whether consciously or subconsciously) a little worried that throwing out a read like that is going to be viewed negatively by the other players in the game.

No, Black writing their post like that is a product of their posting habits, not their alignment. I played a game where they were town and they said "probably" numerous times there:

Spoiler:

Reads. Solid positions, like the last few times I have asked.

Why are my reads not good enough? If it's because the positions aren't solid enough then you're going to have to deal with it because I'm rarely going to be confident enough in my reads to take solid stances in the first 24 hours of a game. If it's because you don't agree with the reads then we can discuss why and figure out where the disconnect is

Here are my most solid positions even though I wouldn't trust myself standing on these:

Dunn is probably my top TR. Originally I was a little skeptical of his entrance but I think his responses to pressure have been really good
Fey was also someone I was unsure about early because the way they danced around the massclaim and the slight overreaction to FB voting for Dunn. However I think Fey vs. FB looks a little TvT looking back over it and I lean town on them
Which means I also lean town on FB
I think Dragon has been pretty townie too. Add my name to the list
I liked FA's entrance and her thoughts felt like they were coming from a genuine solvey place, however I started to doubt that after reading some of what Klick put down about her. Klick has a couple of good points about why he thinks FA is scummy here even if they aren't very strong. Like they seem like things that would make Klick sus of FA but not necessarily things that could get others onboard. FA's whole reaction to the Klick push was to discredit it and then jump on Dragon for following it and I feel like this could be interpreted as her going for an easier target
I lean town with Klick. I think his posting always gives me town vibes though so I'm cautious here
I'm not sure how I feel about Shea or Titus
I need to read over kuribo, GiF, and Drixx because I can't recall anything off the top of my head about these slots
I think Pink Ball and Blue are the two players that are the scummiest to me atm. These are weak reads but I don't like what I've seen from them so far

Gun to your head is me v blue snakelet svs tvs or tvt

Is it bad that I can see all 3? I'd probably go tvs if someone had a gun to my head

VOTE: Titus

I wanted to give her time to respond to 705 but she has popped into the thread a few times while ignoring this. I don't think the answer is going to effect my thought process here. Even if Titus says she has a 100% correct guessrate on meta tells that will probably only make it worse for her

The conclusion of Titus' interrogation on me resulted in her thinking I'm definitely scum. It's a meta read based on how I start my games as town versus scum. The read itself is (kinda) explained in 671 though I do have issues with this post. I don't think the case is presented very well and I'm struggling to see what Titus is even really trying to point out here, but that's not all that important either

The natural result of this interrogation would be to vote me and try to convince others that I'm scum, but Titus has decided that's not worth her time. In 647 she says she doesn't have the energy to fight the thread over me. I find this odd because I'm pretty sure there's only one or two people that have slight townreads on me. The rest are either null or slight SRs. What is this huge fight that Titus is expecting to have here? It doesn't make sense to back down from a surefire scumread over some theoretical fight that she might encounter in order to convince the thread I'm scum. Usually a read with as much conviction as Titus' is accompanied by more than just waving a white flag before the fight even begins

I also find it really strange that FB was in the thread agreeing with Titus that I feel kinda scummy, yet Titus barely wanted to bounce off of him at all. FB says one of me or Shea is scum and it's probably me in 672 and Titus' response in 674 felt so weak... like "welp, here's my meta case". Then Titus actually argues against FB's meta read that town!Black probably wouldn't have strong positions early (677). If Titus really thinks I'm scum I can't see any reason for her not to engage with FB more here

The conclusion of the interrogation and Titus' actions don't align if she's playing from a town perspective. It all feels very inorganic. There's the possibility she's a townie that thinks she could be wrong, but then comments like 701 ("even if I can't get you eliminated today") and 707 ("in the rare event I'm wrong about Black") feel out of place in that type of mindset.

I'm going to start with Fey which will probably bleed into FB since a lot of these two ISO's feel like their engaging with each other

spoiler=Fey ISO

Tl;dr - Fey is town. Also this ISO didn't bleed into FB's very much like I thought it would

I'm not comfortable with FA's wagon

Why not? I think I agree with Klick's "soulless" read but I'm not sure if that's FA's natural tone or if it's AI

I should probably ISO FA today too. ugh

So if Kuribo and Ircher are both in a pt due to their amnesiac role, then they would indeed both be town, as mafia wouldn't have the role activated and wouldn't gain the pt.

Ok, I see. So theoretically the only way kuribo is scum here is if Ircher is scum too? There's probably something I'm missing here

alisae takes
ircher drixx fa gif
Kuribo titus klick
black std pb
shea dunn

This list is like the opposite of mine lol

Either E is shit or I'm shit. Probably the latter

Give 3 options, none of which include kuribo, ircher or GiF.

Huh? I'm not telling anyone who I'm targeting. And I'm not letting anyone decide for me either

And if the jailkeeper dies and hits your target? I am wanting a pool so the jailkeeper doesn't fuck up.

I will probably target within my poe. That will be more solidified as the day goes on

I actually feel a bit alerted for how you guys got to the conclusions you did

I kinda understand this. At one point I did say that I was conftown but that was before I fully considered all angles of this. So I can see where you're coming from but I also think the "weirdness" of it can probably be explained by neither of us understanding the full scope of things

OK that's not fair, Black is the one who outright claimed it. But still.

Tbf I hard claimed it after the details got leaked. I don't think it's that big of a deal. Worst case scenario is I die tonight but even if scum kill me, the role won't go away. I feel like there's probably ways they could mess with the results too via something like redirect or roleblock. The consequences here don't feel as bad as it would in a normal setup

FB, what I find weird about your "I didn't understand scum couldn't use amnesiac roles" statement is that one of your main focuses D1 (especially early) seemed to be Fey. Well, Fey is the one that brought up this mechanic the most. They said it in 146 (you actually quoted this post), 516, 804, and probably more that I'm missing. I just find it hard to believe you and Ali both read over Fey's posts when you were casing them and didn't catch this mechanic

honestly black is doing a really good demonstration of why generalities arent scummy because that reaction to what I thought was a pretty substantive conversation would make me want to tunnel the crap out of you if I didn't think you're almost certainly town for mech reasons.

Ngl I didn't read it all. I'm sure there's substance in there but I tried reading some of it while I'm out and about and I just couldn't

It's probably a me thing

We at least need a pool on who you’re targeting in case you die tonight. If the caterer falls outside the pool, we get a reduced PoE of players

Then I probably wouldn't recommend limming Titus yet. I plan on catching up and solidifying my PoE tomorrow

'Isn't alignment indicative but it gives me bad vibes' and 'way more convinced in Klick!scum than Titus!scum' give off two really different vibes and feel weirdly dissonant

I don't think those things are dissonant at all. Both town and scum can go into survival mode but I think when talented, logical players do it, it reads a certain way. Like calm, but also desperate. Also, me being way more convinced that you are scum over Titus has much more to do with my read on your survivalism so there is no harmony intended with these two statements

What is your actual read on myself and on Titus?

I think you're probably scum, and Titus has been floating between null-town, null, and null-scum for most of the game. I'm having a very hard time reading here and I think I'd just rather outsource my read here tbh

As for the question mark, they ask a lot of questions but 28 does not really seem to be a question. Maybe there is something there.

Finally, I do not think that Black is a confident player.

I don't mind T3's vote on me. I like that he admitted he was grasping at straws to start discussion

CCG's vote feels bad though. Putting me at e-2 by piggybacking off of someone grasping at straws and doubling down on their point feels off

CCGeek, how can you find T3's aggression possibly 'faux' but also agree with the point he made?

Oh right because you're scum.

You may be right here

VOTE: CCGeek

I think this progression too shows Black is feeling a little self-conscious to be the first one to put a read out there. If Black scum read's CCG's vote on her, why doesn't she vote him in 54? Instead, she waits until she's read and acknowledged Aureal's 51 that shades CCGeek to jump on the wagon. I think if Black had a pure and innocent heart and actually felt bad about CCG's vote she'd put a vote there without any hesitation.

I also think specifically calling out "putting me at e-2" is slightly scum indicative. It is consistently more likely for town players to not pay attention to where the votes are at when they throw down a vote. Scum players have to be very careful about how they are perceived and how the timing of votes might look later down the line. And while I don't think it is necessarily scum indicative for Black to *be aware* of how many votes she has accumulated, I do think it is scum indicative that she used that as a point against CCGeek, as if she found something objectively scummy with which to discredit his push with.

For the first part about whether Black would vote: maybe. I think you are assuming things about how Black would act and I think they can easily be town who hasn't voted here.

For the second part about Black pointing to the vote count, I disagree that this is scum indicative.

Wait, the black wagon had 2 votes on it at the time?

OH Clems voted for black, I somehow missed that

What difference does it make? Are you implying you wouldn't have voted for me had you known this?

Black even then later acts like it doesn't make a difference whether CCGeek meant to put her at E-2 or not, despite using the fact that CCGeek had put her to E-2 as a point of suspicion against CCGeek in post 54.

This doesn't read like someone who is genuinely trying to figure out CCGeek's alignment, it reads like someone trying to get CCGeek in a "Gotcha!"

This is a good point

Anyway, I imagine Black is feeling like she's under a lot of pressure for not a lot of reason pretty early in this game. But, I think if she was town, she'd more interested in trying to determine the alignments of the people on her wagon. Instead, she seems more interested in discrediting all the votes on her. I think this is evident in her pushes on both CCGeek and myself.

Even her read on T3, she's like "oh it's towny because it's grasping for straws and just trying to start discussion," which discredits the actual read. The moment someone seriously scum reads her, she pushes back and discredits.

For one thing, I think it's weird she goes after me for a "perspective slip" despite CCGeek arguably doing the same thing by saying that Black is "tunneling" in 95, normally something you'd say to a person you think is town. It's for this reason that I don't really believe that she thinks I'm scum, or that she's genuinely trying to parse CCGeek's alignment.

This is a good point

I don't think you are town, but I am not prideful enough to think my read on you is 100% on page 4

I'm sorry but I have a hard time believing 98 comes from someone that thinks I'm probably scum. You conveniently hopped on the wagon built by others and then spoke to me as if you were trying to convince me that CCG is town. If I'm your #1 suspect then it doesn't make sense for you to address me this way. I don't like this at all

You're either scum with CCG or CCG is town and you're playing us both

VOTE: Dannflor

As far as this post goes, it's just loaded with scum rhetoric.

I "conveniently hopped on the wagon built by others"? Okay. What does this actually mean about my alignment? What makes it convenient that I joined a pre-existing wagon? Why would a town player not do this?

I think "You're either scum with CCG or CCG is town and you're playing us both" doesn't make sense as a real town thought. I think at this point town!Black would have an idea in her head of which is more likely. She'd be constructing a world that makes my behavior and CCGeek's behavior make sense. Calling out two very different worlds (me and CCG as scum buddies and CCG as town) without really giving either one more credence than the other makes it seem like she isn't really considering each of these worlds and what they might mean. Instead, this feels like a rhetorical device to both discredit all the people on her wagon and make it seem more likely that I'm scum by offering up two different ways that I could be scum in this scenario.

I don't think Black actually believes that because I challenged her read on CCG, that means that I made a perspective slip that makes me scum. I think she feels like she has to push me in this way and if she were town I think there would be more of an attempt to see where I'm coming from.

There's not even an attempt really to build a coherent case against me. Instead, 108 is filled with a lot of statements that are supposed to make it seem more believable that I'm scum, with my "convenient hop on to a wagon built by others" thrown in there as if that makes sense as a reason for me to be scum "I don't like this at all" thrown in there to make the read seem more real, and "you're either scum with CCG or scum playing us both" thrown in there to make me seem more likely to be scum. I don't think any of these statements reveal that Black has genuinely thought about my alignment and what is most likely to be happening in this game.

I do think the false dilemma between you and CCG is something that is scum indicative.

I think the perspective slip stuff could be a real thought rather than scum motivated.

Post 108 seems weak from Black. I guess there is enough questionable points here to vote for them.

VOTE: Black

[Dunnstral]

Dunnstral town.

They are like a young me.

Can you explain further why I am town for responding to your prompt?

[Aureal]

aureal what do you think i should look for specifically in black's town game that is different from her scum game

[Generic]

aureal what do you think i should look for specifically in black's town game that is different from her scum game

Apparently Aurreal, besides white knighting black to a ridiculous level that if mafia would be so amateur it’s unreal so I’m going to accept the wifom here that they can’t both be mafia, believes black can never be caught for the wrong reasons and is always town when suspected for a reason she finds weak.

Is that seriously what you are suggesting?

[camelCasedSnivy]

You know what, before I head to bed I’m calling it.

Aurreal and black scum team.

Yeet these wolfy mofos.

Black, maybe but aureal is fine for now

Do you think one flipping scum is reliant on the other flipping scum first!

[camelCasedSnivy]

*?

why does my keyboard do this

[Black]

well the game sucked last night and now I'm hungover on a tuesday. i'll respond to some stuff later

[Black]

aureal what do you think i should look for specifically in black's town game that is different from her scum game

Apparently Aurreal, besides white knighting black to a ridiculous level that if mafia would be so amateur it’s unreal so I’m going to accept the wifom here that they can’t both be mafia, believes black can never be caught for the wrong reasons and is always town when suspected for a reason she finds weak.

Is that seriously what you are suggesting?

i couldn't help but see this chart when i clicked on the page and i love it. i highly doubt Aureal is suggesting i can NEVER be caught for the wrong reasons. that's kinda ridiculous of you to assume. but yeah she's spot on...this is how my mafia career has gone on this site XD

[CCGeek]

evening, I'm really tired, so I don't think I'll be able to pump out posts today. I have caught up, though.

[iamveryhappy]

I highly disagree with the diagram for the simple reason that it is too simple. Too black and white. No grey areas.

[Generic]

aureal what do you think i should look for specifically in black's town game that is different from her scum game

Apparently Aurreal, besides white knighting black to a ridiculous level that if mafia would be so amateur it’s unreal so I’m going to accept the wifom here that they can’t both be mafia, believes black can never be caught for the wrong reasons and is always town when suspected for a reason she finds weak.

Is that seriously what you are suggesting?

i couldn't help but see this chart when i clicked on the page and i love it. i highly doubt Aureal is suggesting i can NEVER be caught for the wrong reasons. that's kinda ridiculous of you to assume. but yeah she's spot on...this is how my mafia career has gone on this site XD

I find it ridiculous that you think it’s ridiculous that I think Aurreal is being ridiculous in claiming that you being caught for the wrong reasons as scum is ridiculous.

[Generic]

I highly disagree with the diagram for the simple reason that it is too simple. Too black and white. No grey areas.

So if black was mafia she would be called white?

[iamveryhappy]

I highly disagree with the diagram for the simple reason that it is too simple. Too black and white. No grey areas.

So if black was mafia she would be called white?

i

[camelCasedSnivy]

generic could be conf biased rn

[camelCasedSnivy]

I highly disagree with the diagram for the simple reason that it is too simple. Too black and white. No grey areas.

So if black was mafia she would be called white?

i

j

[iamveryhappy]

I highly disagree with the diagram for the simple reason that it is too simple. Too black and white. No grey areas.

So if black was mafia she would be called white?

i

j

k

[Generic]

generic could be conf biased rn

Wouldn’t be the first time for me. I will take that on board though and try and step back with a more measured eye.

[Black]

ok i was able to clear my head and i read through the thread again

i still believe that there has to be at least one scum pushing me

rereading makes me think dannflor is the towniest out of those on my wagon. his push on me has felt the most organic. originally i had issues with 124 because it felt like an over-the-top response to me voting for him. after isoing him and cross examining with his other posts, i feel dannflor is being genuine in his suspicions here. while i don't completely agree with some of the points made in this post, it still feels more natural than any of the pushes so far

regarding 164, i think some of the reasons put forth to fade me have been bad or a stretch. typically when 2-3 people latch onto a wagon built on weak reasoning, one of them is scum more often than not. while he's right that it could possibly be a couple of lurkers, i just don't think that's the case here. and while 98 still feels like it could be a perspective slip, i'm fine with not pushing here today

dunn's 180 reads a little weird to me. in the first half he explains why some of dannflor's points are null, in the middle he agrees with a couple of dannflor's other points, and then at the end he decides there's enough here to vote me. i don't understand the point of this if dunn is scum. i think it would make more sense for him to either try to pocket me by defending me, or ignoring all those dannflor points he disagreed with and subtly try to hop on the wagon. the fact that he did both makes me think he's probably town

of the two left, i think the most likely scum is either CCG or Generic. i still don't like CCG's vote and responses to me yesterday even after reading them again. it feels like he wanted to jump on my wagon and then coast. while i wouldn't mind fading either today, i noticed something this read through

Generic had a complete shift in 149. it felt alarming, especially considering that it's based on his assumption that i'm trying to use reverse psychology. i noticed this too:

This is a tactic known as reverse psychology.

I know this well. I do this regularly.

Someone townreads or leans you, you undermine it. You look better because why would a Wolf argue against being town read?

Nope, I’m afraid to burst the bubble but that was me attempting sarcasm… through text… like a moron.

Don’t town clear me off the lamest of attempts at humour please.

here Generic essentially does the exact thing he accused me of doing. in my mind, this implies that either Generic is scum, or he undermines townreads as town. if it is the latter, then why would he be fully convinced i'm scum after i tried to argue against a townlock? it doesn't feel like a natural thought process. Generic's jump onto me has felt the least organic out of everyone, and to top it off he isn't even voting for me despite this:

Just so everyone knows, I refuse to townread black for the rest of the game. Short of a mod clear or a cop check I will be assuming she is mafia. And is currently where my vote will be going.

this feels like an unnecessary extreme if Generic is town here. but the lack of voting me makes me feel like Generic is afraid to get his hands dirty. it feels like he wants dann/dunn/ccg to do all the dirty work for him while he stands on the sidelines pushing the wagon forward

i also don't like his shift on Aureal. in 157 he has her as one of two townies, and then in 176 he calls her "wolfy" and advocates to fade her. this drastic shift feels off, like Generic can't keep track of his own fake reads in the span of a few posts

VOTE: Generic

this is what i think we should push rn

[Black]

i'm having a hard time getting a solid read on Aureal. she's not really doing much this game other than trying to pocket and defend me, which she's done before as town and as scum

i don't have a read on happy or Snivy at all. T3 feels kinda townie to me but it's mostly gut

[Generic]

ok i was able to clear my head and i read through the thread again

i still believe that there has to be at least one scum pushing me

rereading makes me think dannflor is the towniest out of those on my wagon. his push on me has felt the most organic. originally i had issues with 124 because it felt like an over-the-top response to me voting for him. after isoing him and cross examining with his other posts, i feel dannflor is being genuine in his suspicions here. while i don't completely agree with some of the points made in this post, it still feels more natural than any of the pushes so far

regarding 164, i think some of the reasons put forth to fade me have been bad or a stretch. typically when 2-3 people latch onto a wagon built on weak reasoning, one of them is scum more often than not. while he's right that it could possibly be a couple of lurkers, i just don't think that's the case here. and while 98 still feels like it could be a perspective slip, i'm fine with not pushing here today

dunn's 180 reads a little weird to me. in the first half he explains why some of dannflor's points are null, in the middle he agrees with a couple of dannflor's other points, and then at the end he decides there's enough here to vote me. i don't understand the point of this if dunn is scum. i think it would make more sense for him to either try to pocket me by defending me, or ignoring all those dannflor points he disagreed with and subtly try to hop on the wagon. the fact that he did both makes me think he's probably town

of the two left, i think the most likely scum is either CCG or Generic. i still don't like CCG's vote and responses to me yesterday even after reading them again. it feels like he wanted to jump on my wagon and then coast. while i wouldn't mind fading either today, i noticed something this read through

Generic had a complete shift in 149. it felt alarming, especially considering that it's based on his assumption that i'm trying to use reverse psychology. i noticed this too:

This is a tactic known as reverse psychology.

I know this well. I do this regularly.

Someone townreads or leans you, you undermine it. You look better because why would a Wolf argue against being town read?

Nope, I’m afraid to burst the bubble but that was me attempting sarcasm… through text… like a moron.

Don’t town clear me off the lamest of attempts at humour please.

here Generic essentially does the exact thing he accused me of doing. in my mind, this implies that either Generic is scum, or he undermines townreads as town. if it is the latter, then why would he be fully convinced i'm scum after i tried to argue against a townlock? it doesn't feel like a natural thought process. Generic's jump onto me has felt the least organic out of everyone, and to top it off he isn't even voting for me despite this:

Just so everyone knows, I refuse to townread black for the rest of the game. Short of a mod clear or a cop check I will be assuming she is mafia. And is currently where my vote will be going.

this feels like an unnecessary extreme if Generic is town here. but the lack of voting me makes me feel like Generic is afraid to get his hands dirty. it feels like he wants dann/dunn/ccg to do all the dirty work for him while he stands on the sidelines pushing the wagon forward

i also don't like his shift on Aureal. in 157 he has her as one of two townies, and then in 176 he calls her "wolfy" and advocates to fade her. this drastic shift feels off, like Generic can't keep track of his own fake reads in the span of a few posts

VOTE: Generic

this is what i think we should push rn

Yeah good luck with that.