Night Watch Open 95 - Game Over before 703

[StrangerCoug]

I don't think No Lynch is a good idea here. It rarely ever is.

Xtoxm ignoring afatchic's #543 is noted.

[camn]

I am also against a no-lynch.

And I will hide behind Crazy!
It looks like no one else has.

so.. i think its:

Night 3
ortolan--->icemanE
camn -->Crazy
afatchic--->camn

[StrangerCoug]

I'm going behind Xtoxm.

[Xtoxm]

I think that the chance scum don't know who the Hider is already is minimal, failing that I imagine they have a fairly good idea. I think Hider claiming today is optimal.

[ortolan]

Yes, I agree, imo the hider should be claiming today

Oh and furthermore my astonishment in post 544 was explained by me not having read properly

You read properly. Afatchic wrote improperly. OP has never checked camn.

camn claimed vanilla on day 1

[bionicchop2]

Yes, I agree, imo the hider should be claiming today

Oh and furthermore my astonishment in post 544 was explained by me not having read properly

You read properly. Afatchic wrote improperly. OP has never checked camn.

camn claimed vanilla on day 1

Yes, but afatchic said she was checked by RC (role cop), which is incorrect.

[afatchic]

Sorry i thought OP checked camn not crazy. so crazy has no need to hypoclaim today.

[Jex]

Vote Count:

1 - Xtoxm (StrangerCoug)
1 - StrangerCoug (Xtoxm)

Not Voting

afatchic, bionicchop2, camn, Crazy, icemanE, orangepenguin, ortolan

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

[afatchic]

so then is the hider going to claim?

[afatchic]

Okay here are my thoughts....
Im the hider. i was going to wait and hope a scum would try to claim it first, but im very impatient and the game has slowed down tonight.
Clears:
Afatchic
OrangePenguin
IcemanE
StrangerCoug

Unclear:
Bionicchop2
Camn
Crazy
Ortolan
Xtoxm

out of them, i think Camn and Ortolan are both townies. which then leaves:
Bionicchop2
Crazy
Xtoxm

and out of them i think the last two scum are bionicchop2 and crazy.

tonight i will attempt to find a scum. i am going to claim to hide behind one of the five uncleared. and if there is a double kill, that narrows it down and if i die and a random die, we caught one of the last scum. but i would like to hear peoples ideas first.

Anyways

Vote Crazy

as i think he is one of the two scum left.

And btw... there were still 3 possible hiders left, which is why i wanted a no lynch and another hypo claim.

[camn]

Hmm.

Counter claim, anyone?

[afatchic]

Hmm.

Counter claim, anyone?

Someone please counter claim. i had everything all worked out in my head if the scum tried to counter claim. we wouldn't want all that work to go down the drain and have no use, would we?

[camn]

If you ARE scum, there would be no reason for the real hider not to come out now and blow your story to hell

So if you are out there... pls counterclaim!

PS,
I like Crazy and Xtoxm as scum.... Bionic I feel a little better about.
And I feel REALLY good about my Histo exam tomorrow!

[afatchic]

If you ARE scum

Scum would fail miserably by claiming hider here. anyone wanna prove me wrong?

[ortolan]

I definitely favour Xtoxm and/or Crazy as the scum over bionicchop2, who I've been reading as town all game

I maybe wouldn't excuse camn quite yet either

but

Vote: Crazy

[afatchic]

Well d1 when she was saying that she wouldn't be that bad to lose d1 in a deadline lynch because she was only a townie i was thinking she was trying to sound pro town and that they were both mafia. and she new either way mafia would get lynched, so she just tried to make a protown move. but after finding out TCS was a PR, it makes me thinks she may be town as well. either way i have an idea that should get us the win.

[Xtoxm]

Unvote Vote Crazy

[bionicchop2]

so, hider says jump and everybody jumps?

vote camn

as a follow over from yesterday. Ortolan, I would like to know your reasons for voting crazy.

Xtoxm I would like to know yours which were never expresed yesterday.

[camn]

I'll

Vote Xtoxm

, though I am certainly FOR a Crazy Lynch, too. I just would like a little more discussion before I put him at L-1.

Also, quickly (before my test!) looking at both Xtoxm's and Crazy's posts in isolation... though they both are pretty out of the game... X seems a little MORE out of the game.. . thus less useful.

Plus, I kind of read his thing with bionic's so-called hiderclaim as a little forced. Maybe it's just me, but I got the impression he was hoping people would just let him declare that he (and I) were clear under hider-bionic. I don't know if it says anything about bionic if X flips scum... but it reads weird to me.

And yeah, bionic. The real hider has no reason not to claim at this point, if afatchic is scum. Thus, in the absence of a counterclaim, we can consider him clear. Given that, the logic is good.

[bionicchop2]

And yeah, bionic. The real hider has no reason not to claim at this point, if afatchic is scum. Thus, in the absence of a counterclaim, we can consider him clear. Given that, the logic is good.

My comment wasn't about believing his claim (I do). It was about players acting like they no longer need to give reasons for votes since the hider voted for them. I saw 2 players decide "follow the leader" was the name of the game. afatchic certainly is the town leader at this point and his views should be taken into consideration. This does not mean blindly voting for whoever he does. We should have the luxury of 2 mislynches and with only 5 possible players who could be scum and 2 scum remaining, town has a great chance to win, so it isn't a huge deal. Doesn't mean we shouldn't at least think about it.

Some side thoughts:

If afatchic manages to clear a player tonight (doesn't die), the game is over. If we lynch town, scum have a 50% chance of double killing, but they still narrow choices down to 2 scum out of 3 possible.

If afatchic hides behind scum, it doesn't help us since we won't know who she targeted.

[afatchic]

If afatchic hides behind scum, it doesn't help us since we won't know who she targeted.

I plan to tell you who im gonna hide behind.

[bionicchop2]

If afatchic hides behind scum, it doesn't help us since we won't know who she targeted.

I plan to tell you who im gonna hide behind.

What do you think of this?:

If we lynch town, you tell who you will hide behind (50% chance of catching scum, then even if they double kill we have 2/3 odds)

If we lynch scum, you don't tell us and you try to clear a townie (would be 25% if trying to catch scum, but a double kill leaves us with 1/3 odds). In this case, I think trying to clear a townie is more productive. If you actually hide behind scum and they kill one of the 3 uncleared townies, it ends up the same as the double kill anyway.

[bionicchop2]

lol...I am dumb...how can you base your decision based on what the lynched alignment comes up since thread will be locked.

[Xtoxm]

It would still work.

"If town is lynched, i'll hide behind X, if scum is lynched, i'll be on random".

I am not sure I agree with your idea, just saying how it can be done...

[bionicchop2]

I am just trying to think of ways to avoid the guarantee of a double kill and maximize our odds of catching scum.

If a scum player is lynched and scum know where he is hiding, there is a 75% chance he hides behind town and scum takes a double kill. 25% chance she picks scum. In that case, we win obv. I guess maybe that 25% chance of guaranteed victory might be worth a possibility of leaving 33% chance of lynching scum.

If scum is lynched today, we go to 1 scum and 7 town at night. Hiding behind town announced leaves us with 1 scum and 5 town during the day. Mislynch puts us at 1:4. Night kill 1:3 and then we have a final day phase with 1/2 possible players as scum.

OK, I convinced myself. It is worth the shot to try and catch scum. Worst case scenario is we are left at the end game with 1 scum, 3 town and 2 of the town players are confirmed innocent.