Guns & Roses VI [Game Over]

[Celebloki]

Hi

VOTE: Enchant

[Celebloki]

I think I'm in the not mass claiming boat as well and agree with guns claiming if they've made a kill. I suppose that begs the question, do they only claim if they make a kill? Not if they shoot a rose that was BP that night?

[Celebloki]

VOTE: Celebloki

Bad vibes

Why bad vibes?

[Celebloki]

I'm not sure I follow step 2, You mean roses that chose that night? Wouldn't that then confirm to guns and scum that those people are all now vulnerable? You wouldn't want the failed gun to claim first and who they targeted, then have that rose confirm or not? Only one rose outed? I realize this scenario that the failed gun would probably not want to admit themselves, but in your scenario we could have a bunch of roses become vulnerable and then have no guns claim afterwards. I feel like the guns should have to stick their neck out first.

[Celebloki]

I could see scum wanting to pick rose, could've thought more town would have chosen gun and wanted some protection if they were sure they'd pick a good night. Or it does muddy the waters, if the town has an inflated view of how many roses there are, they might be more loose with using their guns or not worrying as much on mis elims.

If the number of roses were much smaller, say scum did choose all guns, and like half the town chose guns, town would probably be a lot more careful on who they wagon and elim in the day. Scum would want town to be more comfortable getting on wagons and getting people out, so inflating the number of roses helps them with that.

All that said, I am still of the belief that most likely all 3 scum are guns and we have one town gun.

[Celebloki]

I mean at this point if Wheme's claim is to be believed, and we believe Wheme is town, scum know everything at this point and we should not expect to see Wheme after N1. Only speculation at this point is what everyone's nights are which should never be claimed imo.

[Celebloki]

yeah, I don't understand the drive for the D1 claims, seems senseless to me

[Celebloki]

Well, I personally am still not sold that all scum chose guns, I think it's feasible that at least one chose rose. Even the PT Enchant posted earlier shows that scum chose a rose in a previous iteration of this. I also don't think we should base elims off gun claims. I'm of the opinion to let the gun claims shoot each other at Night and we do some good ol' fashioned scum hunting for D1. Neither Enchant nor Wheze claimed what nigh their gun is, but I guess the assumption is N1, if either are still alive tomorrow then that's a better time to scrutinize them.

[Celebloki]

That said, my vote on Enchant was RVS and if I'm going to practice what I preach I'll unvote for now.

UNVOTE: Enchant

[Celebloki]

Why would you shoot Wheme?

Cuz i am only town gun.

I don't believe one scum picked rose.

Wheme could be a n1 rose baiting the mafia kill.

They claimed right after someone said a gun claim would be a defenseless confirmed town, if I remember correctly. I don't think mafia would claim to be a gun right away because then they can be shot by the town guns if they don't believe them.

I don't like to have to spell that out but if you are the only town gun you getting wagoned is bad and you shooting at wheme is bad.

I had the same thought, but didn't want to draw attention to it in case that was actually their plan.

[Celebloki]

BOOM roasted

[Celebloki]

Personally I still think we forget about an Enchant or Wheme wagon until D2 and instead anyone pushing for an Enchant or Wheme wagon are good fodder for a wagon.

VOTE: SirCakez

[Celebloki]

Personally I still think we forget about an Enchant or Wheme wagon until D2 and instead anyone pushing for an Enchant or Wheme wagon are good fodder for a wagon.

VOTE: SirCakez

Why?

As I said before, just doesn't make sense. In my view they are dead people walking. Bloodthirsty people with a N1 gun or scum that wants to land a shot has a more informed choice of who to target now. We can try and sus other people out instead and see whose alive tomorrow. I'd find it more damning if either of them are still walking tomorrow. If they do happen to be town guns, scum would want to try and get them out now rather than risk being shot at tonight. Seems scummy to me to try and elim them over others.

I'm also not necessarily saying I think are are scummy, maybe a little suspicious, but counter wagons never hurt nobody.

[Celebloki]

Personally I still think we forget about an Enchant or Wheme wagon until D2 and instead anyone pushing for an Enchant or Wheme wagon are good fodder for a wagon.

VOTE: SirCakez

This line of logic only works if you have reasons to believe one or both of

Wheme/Enchant

are town.

Aside from what you posited 230, independent of any other slots' interaction with these two, why would we consider one or both of them to be town?

I wouldn't necessarily say they are town, but I don't agree with the sentiment from others that since they are claiming Gun, they must be scum. I just don't agree that scum had to have chosen gun and could see one or more of them choosing rose, leaving room for town to choose guns. My point is scum or town, they are more vulnerable now. I just don't understand the desire to claim gun so early, I feel like a scum gun is more likely to keep quiet about it, especially considering the comments made early in this day. I think it's more likely we had excitable misguided townies waving their guns around. I suppose if people are afraid Enchant will shoot them tonight they can try and elim him today. I doubt Wheme will make it to N2 to use his gun. If Enchant is scum, I just think he's a better option for a wagon tomorrow if he's still here.

[Celebloki]

more enchant votes only comment i have

This is the post that made me decide to go for Cakez over Ari or Ali. Ari started the push and has specific, very established reasons. Ali was engaged a bit in the claim talk and wanting to get rid of guns. Cakez piled on more so for meta'ing Enchant it seems. The vote also came in not long after Ali's. Maybe there was hope there'd be more momentum for a wagon to start that didn't. To me his vote was opportunistic and not from the same place as Ari or Ali.

At this point I'm not making a case on Cakez, I'm just trying a different direction than Enchant. I'll say it again so I'm not mis-represented. I am NOT saying I think Enchant is town and the gun claims are interesting choices to make. I tend to agree with Ali's statement that guns have to die at some point. My stance is just to save them for later.

[Celebloki]

In my opinion if we mass claim now we're going to find out we have 12 roses and 2 guns.

[Celebloki]

I've been trying to wrap my head around this game since Ali's claim. I think I view her claim as the most town originating. At this point believe there is

probably

scum in the 3 gun claims, there has to be if they are all true gun claims. There's a nagging feeling entering my head that one of them is really a rose and trying to bait a shot at them, some real double/triple cross shenanigans. Probably not likely though.

I still generally think that I don't want to think too much about all that right now and let some stuff sort itself out at night.

[Celebloki]

I think pisskop was in one of the last games I played before I stopped playing on MS for the past decade. I won't confirm or deny if he's the reason I left.

[Celebloki]

I will say that Wheme's play so far for me has been very ???. I can't discern any meaningful strategy to the choices he has made.

[Celebloki]

What makes you think Titus?

[Celebloki]

k

[Celebloki]

I want to push everyone to spew reads on Enchant/Wheme/Alisae.

I'm not convinced that any specific shot is a town-controlled one unless there is more input from the playerlist.

I think there's for sure scum in there, a good chance of there even being 2. I think Alisae is the most likely to be an actual town gun. I don't know what Bulge is getting at in his post saying I'm defending Enchant. I think there's a great chance he is scum. I acknowledge that it's probably a misguided view, and likely even reckless, but I really just want to let those 3 let bullets fly and sort through the mess D2. I'm just more keen on trying to narrow down someone outside of those 3 D1, then go back to whoever is still there tomorrow amongst those three.

[Celebloki]

I suppose I can get behind a Wheme train. He did claim his gun later, so we wouldn't have gotten to see his shot tonight anyway. My plan to let N1 bullets fly wouldn't really have included him except as a target. I expect to go back to Cakez tomorrow though, maybe can be convinced of Dunn as well.

VOTE: Wheme

[Celebloki]

I was going to try and respond in some capacity to Taly's 1027, but he's mixed me in with a wall of stuff that also analyzes Bulge and I don't feel like trying to quote and pull it apart. It's dangerously easy to read someone in ISO with an expected viewpoint in mind and read that viewpoint with the loss of all the context those posts had. Calls all my early posts fluff and mechanic spec, but that's what everyone else was talking about at the time. The whole first several pages were full of that same fluff.

Then funnily enough picks apart the same posts that Bulge misrepresents me on and does the same mis representation.

I also found it funny that Taly read in ISO looks a lot like me, votes on the Cakez wagon that I started, leaves it to vote Wheme with less of a reason that I gave for my vote.

[Celebloki]

I'll guess I'll try and explain it again since I clearly haven't made my stance clear. I saw the Wheme, Enchant, and then Alisae gun claims and ultimately didn't care what their alignment was. I have admittedly pointed out that its probably a reckless stance, but I would just rather let them sort each other out on N1 and look at them again on D2 then bother with trying to elim one of them D1. I tried and mildly succeeded at starting a counter wagon on Cakez for behavior that I did find a bit scummy.

I honestly don't know what you mean by my read progression. I never said I thought Enchant or Wheme was town. I don't think it's wild to think Enchant or Wheme may be scum as well as Cakez. I didn't criticize Cakez for joining a wagon on Enchant because I thought Enchant was town. I criticized him for joining an opportunistic wagon, which is something scum can do on a wagon that may also be on scum. Enchant painted a target on his back, Cakez could easily have decided to bus and earn brownie points if Enchant catches a shot N1 and flips red.

[Celebloki]

I wouldn't necessarily say I really have any solid "confirmed" type reads one side or the other at this point. I generally don't feel making confirmed reads on D1 is possible except for those soul reads some of you get for having played with each other so much. However I do have some leans at this point.

Lean Town

Theta Alpine
Titus
Taly
Alisae
Aristeia
Gamma Emerald

Null

Dunnstral
Malakittens
pisskop

Lean Scum

SirCakez
Enchant
Wheme
The Bulge

[Celebloki]

I similarly will not be able to spend much time today posting. I likely won't get back to being able to read and post until tomorrow sometime. In the meantime I am going to go back to my biggest scum read.

VOTE: Cakez

[Celebloki]

Well if Enchant is going to shoot at me tonight I'm dead, so go Town!

[Celebloki]

VOTE: Dunnstral

[Celebloki]

Please go after Cakez, Bulge, and Taly for me

[Celebloki]

It's mostly Cakez and Bulge if I'm honest. If I'm being real I consider you to be pretty town. I added you mostly out of spite, but I can take that one back if I actually wind up dead tomorrow.

[Celebloki]

gg all. Enchant I forgive you.

Love the N1 shot into a BP and complete no fire of a Mafia gun.