[SETUP] bulk discount mafia

[Skygazer]

bulk discount mafia

- the game where the town decided it would be financially sound to do their eliminations in bulk
- someone has probably done something similar to this before
- this might be annoying to play in idk

the setup

- this game is nightless
- there are nine vanilla townies and three mafia goons
- this game has a delayed flip mechanic (see the next section): players that are selected for elimination stay alive and can vote (but not be voted for) until they die in the next bulk flip
- plurality voting is in effect; if there's no majority at deadline, the player who currently has the most votes and has had that status for the longest amount of time will be selected for elimination

bulk discount flip schedule

- the first bulk flip will contain four players and will occur at the end of day four
- the second bulk flip will contain three players and will occur at the end of day seven
- the third bulk flip will contain two players and will occur at the end of day nine
- if no faction has won up to this point, day ten is three-player-elo and the eliminated player flips instantly

the stats

tbd. 9:3 nightless has an 50% ev for town, which is on the high side, so this would be pretty close to that, but the delayed flip mechanic harms town to some extent (to the point where it would be annoying to play in? i don't think so but others might). granted if the game was on like day seven with four flipped townies and two unflipped townies, town still has one more shot at hitting scum (rather than lose because it's 3:3) because the unflipped townies are still alive, so there's a slight of an advantage there as well. the same thing can happen on day nine. might need to revisit the numbers.

[northsidegal]

generally, when it comes to nightless games town tends to massively outperform EV, to the point where i believe even when it's run 8:4 (which i believe has 33% EV), town has still won a huge majority of the time. delayed flips definitely hurt town, but i don't think it's to the point where it would make that much of an impact. honestly, i think that you could have it be 8:4 (like "standard" nightless) and it might be balanced – not having a mafia nightkill is

that much

of a big deal!

of course, going with 8:4 would get rid of the nice factor that even if town goes 0 for 4 on their first elims they still get a chance to recover, so if you wanted to keep that you could also tweak the flip schedule. another interesting thing to note is that because people retain their votes even when elimmed, any mafia who were voted out but not yet flipped are incentivized to quickhammer a townie on the last day before the flip occurs, which turns every pre-flip day into its own sort of mini-lylo, at least when it comes to voting rules.

i'd play it! i've always had a soft spot for nightless

[Skygazer]

yeahhhh you're right. really wanted to shoe in the 4-3-2-1 thing, it pleases my brain.

i wonder how 8:4 with a 3-4-2-1 schedule would work? but i just woke up

[Skygazer]

Just ran EVs on 9:4 with a 4 -> 4 -> 2 -> 1 elimination schedule. It comes out to around 45% for town which is too high I suppose.

9:4 nightless comes out to around 38% for town so the mechanic does seem to be more townsided than pure nightless, funnily enough.

Will crunch more numbers later, but I wanna come up with a script so it's easier to run a ton of numbers for quick comparisons

[Skygazer]

Here's a python script I threw together (don't roast me I'm a hobbyist) to simulate games and get a pretty close idea of EVs

Code: Select all

import time
import random

# parameters
numberOfTown = 9
numberOfMafia = 4
numberOfSimulations = 1000000
eliminationSchedule = (4, 4, 2, 1)

# incremental values
townWin = 0 # used to store number of town wins
scumWin = 0 # used to store number of scum wins
i1 = 0 # used to count number of simulations
i2 = 0 # used to count number of eliminations in a given cycle

while i1 < numberOfSimulations:
	i1 += 1
	town = numberOfTown
	scum = numberOfMafia
	for x in eliminationSchedule:
		i2 = 0
		while i2 < x:
			i2 += 1
			y = random.randint(1, scum + town)
			if y <= scum:
				scum -= 1
			else:
				town -= 1
		if scum == 0:
			townWin += 1
			break
		if scum >= town:
			scumWin += 1
			break
print("town wins: " + str(townWin))
print("scum wins: " + str(scumWin))

[Skygazer]

8:4 with the original schedule comes out to ~38.6%

Will try plugging in other numbers tonight!

[Skygazer]

6:3 with 3/3/1 comes out to 36.8%
6:4 with 5/2/1 comes out to 30.9%
6:4 with 4/3/1 comes out to 25.3%

[northsidegal]

9:4 nightless comes out to around 38% for town so the mechanic does seem to be more townsided than pure nightless, funnily enough.

unexpected! i guess EV wise it's because there are more townies sticking around longer?

8:4 with the original schedule comes out to ~38.6%

6:3 with 3/3/1 comes out to 36.8%

these both sound pretty playable to me!

[Skygazer]

I don't really mind the possibility of scum winning day one either tbh

[Something_Smart]

This seems absolutely miserable to play. But I guess I'm not the target audience.

Nightless games are already pretty boring due to a lack of info, and this just further takes away info and is probably going to make it very hard for people to stay motivated.

I guess that balances what would otherwise be a townsided setup, but not really in a pleasant way.

[Skygazer]

I feel like I'm intrigued by the idea and would run it if there was interest. Personally, I would be on the fence about playing haha.

[T3]

i'd play