Open 893 - 09:12 - Postgame

[Elements]

People voting us are town

What makes you think all three of us are town? Cobblerfone and I gave fairly similar reasons but ssbm_Kyouko's vote looks like an unreasoned RVS vote?

[Elements]

I hate myself

[Elements]

I don't think Gamma is a good vote

[Elements]

Hmm
UNVOTE:

[Elements]

@mod

I'll be v/la 21st-23rd inclusive

[Elements]

I'm liking tomith for town

[Elements]

VOTE: gamma

[Elements]

Elements I’m slightly concerned about. I feel like the first 3 CrabApple posts are fake new-ness on reflection.

someone said something similar, but I joined as an alt because I wanted to try a different play style to usual and didn't want people to try meta read my playstyle shift

[Elements]

I don't think Gamma is a good vote

VOTE: gamma

What changed your mind on her between these two posts?

Skimmed Gamma's iso from open 891 and then reread its iso from this game

[Elements]

I don't think Gamma is a good vote

Agreed.

VOTE: Elements

Since Gamma is on this.

gamma is no longer on this

[Elements]

I don't think Gamma is a good vote

VOTE: gamma

What changed your mind on her between these two posts?

Skimmed Gamma's iso from open 891 and then reread its iso from this game

Okay. What similarities did you see?

You felt a lot more "look at me! I'm here to have fun!" In your entrance than I remember you feeling in other games I've played with you

[Elements]

so in summary, Elements' heart is in the right place, but the execution is flawed and I remain unconvinced

why is it me trying to do meta but just doing it badly and not me trying to find reasons to scum read someone but not bothering to do it properly?

[Elements]

but like, your whole vote on Elements was predicated on me voting them, so me unvoting should have staying power?

I was choosing between Elements and someone else... cant remember who. And I chose Elements because I saw you were on it, although I guess you unvoted at some point.

I felt Elements was scum based on their opening as Crab btw. Idk how Adorable feels about Elements but I am down to vote that slot.

Does the fact i was intentionally doctoring my posts so I wouldn't be recognised change your read at all?

[Elements]

Honestly?

VOTE: ssbm_kyouko

I think pushing up here might be worthwhile.

I can join you here
VOTE: ssbm_kyouko

I've been pondering with the idea 202 is also tmi on both me and Gamma being town

[Elements]

@Elements, do you agree with the assessment that you've been vote hopping?

I always vote hop day 1
It's probably the most nai thing I can do

[Elements]

Honestly?

VOTE: ssbm_kyouko

I think pushing up here might be worthwhile.

I can join you here
VOTE: ssbm_kyouko
I've been pondering with the idea 202 is also tmi on both me and Gamma being town

What do you mean TMI on you and Gamma being town?

The post implies that ssmb knows that Gamma and I are town, which they only can as scum

[Elements]

Hopefully that makes sense

[Elements]

It's less in what's said than the way it's said

[Elements]

I'm not very good at explaining things


203 is much easier to make of you already know I'm town
If you're trying to figure out my alignment I feel like there are a lot more hoops you have to jump through to get a town read on me from the post it was in reference to

[Elements]

What's going on...

Enchant is here
That's what's going on

[Elements]

i am very tempted to e-1 cobb

[Elements]

VOTE: Cobb

[Elements]

was this one of the hypoclaim scenarios?
if so how does that work I don't really get it

[Elements]

I don't have a guilty either

[Elements]

Hypoclaim: I jailkept Mizuki

[Elements]

i'm happy with a VOTE: gamma lim today

[Elements]

Just to be clear I am not currently scumreading Elements - until I metadive her to see if she normally makes low-effort metadives as town, I will continue to TR her. If i find that she normally puts more effort in as town, or that she has a pattern of making this kind of lazy meta push as scum, then the only scenario where she could have been scum is a lot more likely because cobb did flip scum. If you look back at when Mizuki was pushing me about my confidence in my read on Elements, you will note that the only scenario where scum!Elements makes sense is if the team is exactly {Cobb, Elements}. I don't think I survive the Night if this was the case but I'm not going to let that WIFOM deter me from meta diving Elements to verify what her townplay is like.

if you metadive me you'll find very different iso's to this game

[Elements]

I've been through Elements' ISO in all of their completed games from this year.

When I say

evidence

, what I'm looking for are any references to meta. I try to start with a broad approach and if I notice a specific pattern I will try to hone in on that, but here there was not one (related to Elements using meta at least, there was a NAI pattern I found).

large 245:
no evidence, low postcount

booneytoonz: town
243: nothing you've done is out of your scum range (I later learned that Elements said this about a player they know IRL when reading another game they played together in where that player was town and Elements was scum)
1519: counts every post (53) in the iso of theta and categorizes it

grand idea:
74 post count replace-in, no evidence
fruit mafia:
replaced out, low postcount, no evidence

normal 2302: scum
119 "I'm not a fan of meta partly because most of the time I get bored reading other people's past games"
169 - are you gonna meta me or? (in response to being SRed for making up reads D1 and then claiming she always does this)
272 - self-metas to defend self against Morning Tweet suspecting
935 - "im not going to meta myself"

Mini 2291: town
replaced out, low postcount, but something to note that I found to be accurate was this bit of self-meta:
255 - Elements is a self-professed wagon-follower on D1 (like they like to vote for large wagons to push through pretty much any elimination) She was a a follower in this game so makes sense she just wanted nights, but she says this about herself in another game iirc and from reading her ISOs from this year I found it to be accurate as both alignments she vote hops a lot on D1.

HMS Mutiny: scum - lots of vote hopping like they do as town (no meta evidence)

Open 872 (Guardians of the fortress): scum
116: dont have a long enough memory to remember scum/town games unless it's recent

I'd say that overall the results are inconclusive. I'll retract that it's unlikely for that lazy read to come from scum!Elements though, in light of the Cobblerfone flip. scum!Elements would have had motivation to try to move the wagon away from Cobb. If anything Elements' NAI pattern of being vote-hoppy on D1 might indicate they had knowledge Cobb would flip scum and were trying to avoid it. My impression from their ISOs is that they just want to kill anyone D1 when they are town or scum. I don't have context on any of their votes from those ISOs though - like idk if as town they have been known to flip-flop off of a close-to-elimination wagon

This was an enjoyable read, thank you

[Elements]

Mostly now I'm reinforcing TRs in Mizuki, Thomith, and Elements, and want POE within Gamma/imaginality because Puff looks to be spewed town

agreed

[Elements]

Town Pile
ssbm_Kyouko
Thomith
Mizuki

The Rest
Puffalicious
Gamma Emerald
imaginality

[Elements]

prepare to be dazzled

I am very excited

[Elements]

Does the roleblocker world not mess things up?

[Elements]

If Tomith is a rolecop/vanilla cop we have 3 or 4 clears right?
Tomith
Tomith's check
The other PR
The tracker/roleblocker clear if it exists

[Elements]

In either scenario if mafia have a rolecop there is no way to prevent the PRs from getting another clear/guilty tonight for a 4/5th clear

[Elements]

So if there's no Jugganaut we just win?

[Elements]

Sure, I can retarget

[Elements]

But if there's a Roleblocker do we not have 4 clears which solves the game?

[Elements]

I mean if imaginality is a roleblocker

[Elements]

Rolecop?

[Elements]

So puff is clear?

[Elements]

Dope

[Elements]

I'm roleblocker
Mizuki is clear

[Elements]

Bloop

[Elements]

Kyouko I don't see being scum here so we can vote imaginality or Gamma, block the other if they're not scum

[Elements]

I'll Roleblock whichever of Gamma/imaginality we don't lim today

[Elements]

Intent to hammer

[Elements]

Ping

Come claim

[Elements]

Oh right

[Elements]

That's everyone except imaginality then right?

[Elements]

So I can hammer?

[Elements]

I'm roleblocking Gamma tonight gang assuming the game doesn't end
VOTE: Imaginality

[Elements]

Bloop

[Elements]

Well
Unless imaginality somehow flips pr
Then I'll be roleblocking Tomith

[Elements]

Gg
Thanks for the game all!

[Elements]

Yeah I guess the D1 scum elimination makes things much different - scum rolecop just feels really weak though, especially versus hypoclaims where by the time you've found a PR on N1 using the rolecop ability, the PR results are already out there. If you find them on N2 I guess scum knows who

not

to try to push in 5p ELO on D3

Maybe it's not as bad as I'm thinking - I think the townblock was pretty solid this game after Mizuki was done voting me, although Elements roleblocked Mizuki so maybe it wasn't as strong as I thought.

I suspected Mizuki for the entirety of Day 1 but didnt really know why I felt that way (was mostly gut) so I just never mentioned it

Yeah same, just like low level paranoia.