Open 908: Aureal Is Hoarding All The Game Names | Game Over

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Hello friends!

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High energy game!

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i broadly like bingle's takes. i have no reads. apparently a lot is riding on what words i decide to type right now though so if it's better for me to have reads then i actually have reads

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i broadly like bingle's takes. i have no reads. apparently a lot is riding on what words i decide to type right now though so if it's better for me to have reads then i actually have reads

hi implosion

how do you craft such an objectively perfect opening post in a gamestate which is so fascinated by the concept of your opening post

pocketing irl btw

i used an autocomplete bot and then set a 3 hour timer and used a different autocomplete bot.

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I can definitely see where thread seeming-consensus is coming from atm; I can jive with PC town and also worst town to some degree and also with Black being sketchy, but i'm not gonna go as far as scummy right now

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I can definitely see where thread seeming-consensus is coming from atm; I can jive with PC town and also worst town to some degree and also with Black being sketchy, but i'm not gonna go as far as scummy right now

Can you explain your read on me?

33 feels kind of like flaccid criticism in some way, like "you didn't care about figuring out his alignment" is implicitly calling it scummy but then a couple posts later you call it townish. I really wouldn't call it a read overall though there was just that and like one or two other posts that sort of pinged me but I do not feel strongly about it whatsoever; I do however see where the sentiment is coming from

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Friendly reminder nm is in the game; no early e-1s please

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I can definitely see where thread seeming-consensus is coming from atm; I can jive with PC town and also worst town to some degree and also with Black being sketchy, but i'm not gonna go as far as scummy right now

What has given you the impression that worst is a consensus townread

one person townread them and i'm remarkably impressionable.

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i don't really vibe with the bingle wagon.

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VOTE: Klick

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why

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UNVOTE: Klick

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When I voted Klick it was basically a feeler. I didn't want a wagon on them, which is why I unvoted. I'm sort of anti-wagon because I just don't trust people to not E-1 people.

I think ceejay is somewhat scummy. I think Klick's reason for scumreading ceejay is alright. I think Klick is mildly townish but not a lock by any means yet. I see where Black is coming from with the overly-nuanced comment but I don't really know how to evaluate its merit in the absence of like, a deep knowledge of how Klick tends to play/approach things. I don't really see where Black is coming from with her points on ceejay being townish.

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i just typed up a thing about Klick (responding to Black) but it disappeared. alas. it wasn't that long, I just mentioned liking things like 192 - 195 and also the way that they talked about themselves, but it's not a strong read.

I think what is pinging the most about implosion is the "consensus" read. It sounds very performative and then the reason implosion gave was that implosion was very impressionable? I forget. It looks like someone trying to blend in. It also looks like they waved away any criticism of that with the well whatever I'm impressionable. instead of saying something much more honest and maybe scummy like I (implosion) wasn't reading the thread or I (implosion) wasn't really paying attention to others reads or I (implosion) forgot other people were playing the game or something idk That would be an easy town read for me. Because to me it is just implosion trying to sound like they read the thread completely and don't want to move from that premise to appear that they are playing the game, because in that post where implosion says they are impressionable it looks like they went back to check just how many people were townreading the worst to not move off the premise that the game was read. Whether or not the game was read isn't really alignment indicative imo. What is, is trying to appear to be with the town while saying oh look everyone I(implosion) read the entire thread.

I haven't been taking this game especially seriously so far. If you want to think the thread consensus thing is surface level scummy because I called a single person's opinion thread consensus because I wasn't looking all that closely then I can't really stop you but it's almost definitely something I'd be more careful about on average as scum bc I usually am a lot more careful/fearful of saying something wrong as scum.

The impressionable thing was a joke. Like sure I could say "I wasn't really paying attention to the game" but like, why would i say that when i can make a joke that says the same thing. idk, you saying I should have said it in these ways is really weird or maybe you just don't think it was a joke and think I was seriously saying that I'm using my impressionability as an excuse, which, yeah sure I guess you can't take things at face value in a mafia game or whatever but idk that just seems pretty silly.

I

had

read the thread completely, I just wasn't double checking things and had remembered seeing some pro-duck sentiment and then my brain conflated that into being thread consensus probably because I personally agreed with it somewhat.

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I will say my activity level is a healthy mix of RL reasons and because I've kind of realized over time that I just am bad at d1s. I'll probably pick up somewhat this weekend

I'm curious about Dann's current take on me

I'm looking forward to the telling Not_Mafia reactions and Not_Mafia case from this exciting Not_Mafia wagon

Somewhat like this post, don't see a whole lot of reason for Klick to make it as scum.

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I think there's at least one scum and probably two in [nm, implo, cjv] and maybe that's in reverse order? I'm also probably like, incorrect, because this game has a number of skilled scum players in it

I find it kind of astonishing that you'd write this sentence honestly. Like the hedging sure but like there's absolutely no way you actually have any confidence that is anywhere significantly above random in that proposition. Do you just say random shit as town? Do you genuinely think that the lurkers in this game are significantly >rand to be scum? Because I at least have seen very little from the thread as a whole that makes me feel like it's lots of townies waiting for the lurker scum to show up (granted I have access to the info that I'm town but still)

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actually something just clicked in my brain and I am very surprised that implo has had so little to contribute so far and I'm more happy w this vote than I expected to me

I do like this post somewhat but I really don't like most of duck's posts between voting me and it

The vote on me almost feels like, not wagoning for the sake of wagoning or vote hopping for the sake of vote hopping, but like vote hopping for the sake of vote hopping for the sake of vote hopping, if that makes sense. Like duck is jumping on me for the sake of looking like they're jumping around a lot.

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I'm glad that Bingle is calling Dann sort of very softly scummy. I think Dann is not even close to escaping his scumrange in this game and I *think* there have been a few townreads on him and I'm a bit aghast at that. I feel like Dann is being reasonable and responsive and playing well and doing all the things that, he does as scum to my knowledge (at least from Toriel's patience). I haven't read any people's in-depth reasons for calling him town but I'm very skeptical of him being >rand town and think there's a good chance he's >rand scum though I don't have good reasons for thinking that in particular

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Ever so slight lean town on N_M's spate of posting.

VOTE: the worst

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Bingle and Black are townleans in that I generally don't have issues with their play and I don't think I understand their scum ranges well enough to say anything with confidence right now and I think both of them have done some stuff that I like, maybe black a bit more so than Bingle

PC is nominally town, I think Klick is townish (I guess probably my strongest townread but not very strong nonetheless), so very deeply unconfident scumpool right now is worst/cj/dann i guess (n_m being next in line I think)

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ya I've seen multiple conversations which felt mutually earnest and I do suspect at least one underperforming player is scum. that happens quite often. i'm astonished that ur astonished.

I'm specifically astonished at you saying that "probably both" scum are in those 3 players. Unless you have a different definition of "probably" from me, that is a wildly strong claim.

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that's a reasonable characterisation! my votes are projecting more confidence than my heart feels

well like i just said your words are projecting a hell of a lot of confidence too so i'm not really sure how exactly i'm supposed to be figuring out how confident you're actually claiming to be

The nm slight gut town is just for the structure of the posting spate, the commenting on almost every post -> "i'm exhausted" after like 6. Again, very weak, but I think the bruntness of "I'm exhausted" maybe comes from town more often

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why is cjv in your scumpool? I agree w you on Klick and like, vaguely agree with a bunch of your reads

I didn't really like 55, not as strongly as Klick but I thought Klick's point wasn't bad (as I mentioned) and 55 as a whole feels maybe generically like an early game scum post. I don't really understand the reasons he's being called town, in particular I think black gave a reason that I couldn't really parse. And like, I don't really have any reason to take him out.

This seems like a weird way to phrase this question when he's also in your scumpool; do you think he oughtn't be in mine or is it surprising to you that he is?

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I'm really struggling to see "I'm exhausted" as anything but a joke I'm surprised you aren't latching onto his apparent instant townread of Klick

why would i latch on to this

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you also acknowledge that my level of confidence in that read is simultaneously intense and non-committal which I agree with

you're telling me you've never had multiple conflicting thoughts about a situation at the same time and started explaining one then realising you can't remember if you actually even like that thought half way through the explanation?

that's like my quintessential mafia experience

I'm a mathematician. I see you saying "probably 2 scum are in these 3 players" and I read this as you saying that you think there is a >50% chance that a proposition is true, when that proposition has a baseline probability fypov of ~10% (and, fmpov assuming you're town, the baseline probability of it being correct goes down to <5%) and that's more confidence than I have ever viscerally felt for anything on day one of a forum mafia game frankly, or maybe on any day

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implosion/ceejay feels unfortunately likely

I asked you last page what your current take of me is; care to elaborate?

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if I'm a wolf I ain't that deep I'm moreso referring to his core trait this game being refusal to accept any form of status quo

This is exactly how I would describe his play in our last game together, where he was scum and both him and his partner were locked out fairly early

I don’t really see how this describes my play this game. I don’t think I’ve given any especially spicy takes except for on the worst right now, the only anti status quo thing I’m really doing is yelling at ducks stance that scum is clearly all in the lurkers because, among other reasons, it’s like a 5% chance fmpov

I’m not even disagreeing that there is scum in the lurkers! ceejay is in my scumpool and I said that nm is the weakest of my townreads, ie is in the scummier half of the rest of the player list

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I'm really struggling to see "I'm exhausted" as anything but a joke I'm surprised you aren't latching onto his apparent instant townread of Klick

why would i latch on to this

because (bluntly) it actually feels meaningful.

Okay well I disagree lol

It’s not even clear that he’s townreading klick, he said klick ceejay is possibly scum theatre. I don’t read “good vote” and “bad vote” as necessarily meaning anything and frankly I think when I read nms posts the first time my brain literally ignored their content at the level of whose votes were being called good or bad or who those votes were on

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implosion is either the messiah figure this town needs to root out the deepwolves, or he is scum, and I'm yearning to discover which

i also disagree w this btw. my d1 reads are normally garbage. my reads get better over time. Sometimes I have reads that I feel particularly good about d1 and they're probably alright, though sometimes they too are deeply wrong; in toriel's patience I had two pretty solid townreads d1 (dannflor and sakura hana) which were on 2/3 of the scumteam. Which is part of why there's a part of me that refuses to accept any townreads on Dann right now as being legitimately >rand. Not that it's not possible to do so. I just don't think anything he's done is necessarily unmotivated in the way that I think he has to be at some point to be town, if that makes sense. I'm probably not going to be able to get a solid read on him for a long time personally

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you specifically shone a spotlight on townreads of dann as an act of anti status quo ness!

i shone a spotlight on the person who was already calling out those townreads. that's hardly an act of anti status quo ness, it's an act of amplifying a voice that currently exists that i like the message of

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pedit: I definitely think we disagree, I'm still like 99% sure the exhausted comment was part of the bit :p

yes it was obviously a bit. i understand that.

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implo it kinda feels like you're forcing a "gotcha" vibe through the definition of my use of probably in a throwaway sentence which I then contradicted. like, within the sentence. you also don't disagree with the conclusion (you actively scumread cjv, apparently think we are scum together, and nm is not outside of your eventual natural POE) but I don't really know how to meet you anywhere on this. it kinda feels like you decided I was evil when black voted me and we've kinda been throwing words back at each other.

sorry if you're town I really enjoy your style and you're super cool. we just aren't gelling here at all and I'm kind of just in a place where I think it's probably bc you want me dead.

I don’t “want you dead” in particular, I wouldn’t have voted you if black hadn’t. And again I don’t trust my reads lol.

I agree that if you’re town (and also maybe if you’re scum) that this would look like me taking a throwaway comment and drilling it for no good reason but I don’t actually know your alignment so alas

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ceejay/implo makes a lot more sense because implo is doing pretty much exactly what he'd need to be doing as scum by distancing but still primarily pushing in the more active players

I feel like this doesn't really adequately explain how you feel about me. I don't necessarily disagree in that I don't know that my stances are dramatically different from what they'd be if I were scum. (Though really I don't think I know my scumgame all that well enough to know what they'd be).

How do you feel my play matches up against how you think I'd be playing as town?

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that's such a surreal qualifier I don't think my alignment matters in my perceiving you taking a random throwaway comment and drilling down on it

i mean if you're scum then it's entirely possible that i have identified something, even if it was meant as a throwaway comment, that you actually would not have said as town

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And also as much as it was a "throwaway sentence". it's a thing you said in this game. i'm allowed to scrutinize it

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(not that you're saying that I'm not, but etc)

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I think Political Clout's read on me feels sort of viscerally like the kind of incorrect scumread that I think a fair number of players with particular dispositions are likely to get on me in a first game with me when they are town. And so it doesn't really worry me at all. Duck I think not vibing with me is fine but honestly I think I find the laziness of the probably-2-scum-in-the-lurkers comment, and the now hopping on the "well maybe it's just implo + ceejay" train, as offputting. Which is not to say that duck is not doing other things too, they are, idk.

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we have different brains!

nah

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remember, we are linked by our timezones

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Anyway I'm about to get on a plane and then likely will be busy all day so la de da i do just wanna hear dann talk about me more :'(

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I dont really think you’re scum implo

Basically I have no idea how to read you and I have a dream that somehow you commenting on my weird non read of you vis a vis toriels patience will somehow lead to me acquiring a read on you

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implosion I don't really vibe with either. I feel like he's engaging for the sake of engaging and I thought sometimes he goes out a bit of his way to make his posts a bit more vague? Granted this could just also be how he posts but I've been feeling like parsing implosion's posts sort of feels a bit harder than parsing other players

is this scummy? am not sure but its what got my attention

I genuinely have no idea how you get "engaging for the sake of engaging" from my ISO. I spent the first day or two doing basically nothing because I wasn't really into the game yet and felt no need to engage. And then yesterday I basically posted a mad dash series of posts immediately before boarding a plane while i was able to. I've searched for specific things from specific people. How the heck are you getting "engaging for the sake of engaging" from my ISO?

If my posts are vague or hard to parse, it's either an issue of the way I write not coming through well to you or possibly just like, me being obtuse for a joke. I'm always happy to clarify or elaborate if there's anything specific.

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i'm intrigued but probably unlikely to be more than intrigued

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I'm surprised at the pace at which he's working through this game

at its speed or slowness?

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I'm surprised at the pace at which he's working through this game

at its speed or slowness?

at its inconsistency I think. I feel like it took you a while to get into it, then you processed in a frenzy, and now I'm kind of like wondering what the future of implosion in open 908 looks like

damn. i wonder too, only one way to find out i guess

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i didn't

really

process in a frenzy per se. I kept up with the game a bit while I was not really posting but had days that were occupied by stuff and/or I was just not in the mood (but mostly the former I think). And then I had time. Also frankly I am motivated by having pressure on me sometimes

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I'm surprised at the pace at which he's working through this game (I guess this has gotten better but only after it was called out, and this game is a bit slow paced in general) and I think his read on me felt very forced

I've mentioned like multiple times that I'm wary this is pretty introspective and would love someone else with a different opinion to talk through it

I guess if this is your summary of your position on me then you presumably think the pacing thing is scum-indicative, beyond just being surprising? or no? If so why?

I frankly just don't begrudge you calling my read on you forced, in some way it is because, again, i am extensively bad at getting meaningful d1 scumreads

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Klick, the problem is you haven't played with town me recently, you've only played with scum me so you're seeing an aspect of my game that is similar to that game and assuming it's alignment-indicative. I don't even disagree entirely that that aspect of my play is similar to coalition; I disagree a bit with it because I'm not

just

saying that I'm motivated by pressure. I'm also motivated by how available I am IRL. And by my mood. And by whether or not there happens to be interesting content (and there wasn't much early for me). Like, the weird-looking thing that I was attacking duck for has served as a hook for me to get more in to the game.

Like yeah, of course my posting will depend partially on the flow of the thread. It's a game of forum mafia. I'm more motivated to post things when there are more interesting things to analyze or react to or whatnot

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Like for instance I saw duck's posts a couple hours ago and considered responding to them but now you're giving me something that I feel I need to react to (because I think you're town, so I care about your opinion on me in the game) so I'm also going to go respond to those now. Could this be me being survivalistic as scum? Sure, in principle, but I think it's just as simple to explain with me being town.

this isn't very meta informed but scum tend to benefit from having limited insight & limiting the work they put into progressing the gamestate in a positive direction. to me it felt like you weren't throwing in many original thoughts and then the first original (or Bingle-inspired-original) thought felt kind of unnatural that's definitely a space where I'm looking for scum.

Yeah I don't think I'm especially good as a rule of thumb at progressing the gamestate d1. I can think of some specific cases where I've been able to (like a pyp game where I had one strong read that pushed the gamestate pretty strongly) but I think the average case for me as town d1 is to not really have a massive impact.

WRT my thoughts on Dann feeling unnatural, that could just be you ignoring the context of the last game I played with him. Or maybe you're just wrong. or scum. la de da.

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ceejay ignoring me while I'm in the thread, while I'm professedly one of his top two scumreads, and while I'm at e-2, and while I have an outstanding question to him, and while a bunch of people are calling us the scumteam (though I guess that's leveled off somewhat) is annoying. Off chance that it's scum trying to make me look viably a partner although it's possible as either alignment he missed my post directed at him or decided not to respond for some other reason.

Klick, have you seen enough more from ceejay at this point to want to go more in depth?

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Okay. How well do you think the way I'm playing lines up with how you think I'd be playing as town?

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Pretty decently from my understanding

What do you think are the noticeable differences between your town and scum games?

I actually think I don't have a good understanding of them (although now that i'm p-edited having written two paragraphs maybe that's not true lol). I felt like I was playing kind of mediocre at best in the coalition game we played; I think the other coalition game that I played ~half a year ago was about as good as my scumgame gets though, and that game kind of made me feel like my scum range is wider than i had thought it was.

I think one thing that maybe being scum with fireisredsir has made me realize is that I do tend to plan in the long term as scum; like in that other coalition game I had a particular set of ideas of how things would look over time and was making nightkills on n1 that were intended to set things up on d4. Obviously I don't have a specific long-term plan as town, so maybe it's possible to notice that. I think I'm less careful as town, I will filter what I say somewhat but significantly less so. I sometimes will avoid reading over my posts before clicking submit as scum specifically because I know I'd be less likely to do so as town, but in some cases will need to do so anyway.

I think there definitely are differences in posting patterns as well, they're just not what duck has been talking about. When I'm town I tend to try to work with people, abstractly; like one town game I worked a lot with aisa all game and in toriel's patience I sort of worked with mandate d1 though I had trouble continuing to work with anyone after mandate got replaced. The way that I commit to reads is probably pretty different; as both town and scum I can be a bit intransigent in certain reads in the late game but in a sort of different way, as scum it's more so because I've decided what my best path forward is and as town it's more because I have trouble abandoning something that i've felt strongly about for long enough, but I will still try to audit things. I'm also noncommittal as both but in different ways, as scum I can be intensely noncommittal sometimes because I'm trying to keep options open (I did this in the late game in our coalition game a

lot

; in fact in both coalition games where I was scum recently, I essentially refused to vote first in 3p eLo because I thought there was a chance I could earn the hammer and just wanted to play for the numbers). As town I'm noncommittal up until the point where I feel like I have to commit just because I don't trust myself, on d1 I'm gonna be pretty noncommittal as town just bc I don't trust my own reads but I'll have reads over time that are natural and reinforced through me continuing to audit the read and continue liking it

this is all probably not super useful right now on d1.

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NM townlean makes no sense but maybe it actually just makes no sense enough

if this is about my NM townlean then like, that's entirely fair

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you can say that i'm calling NM null if that makes you feel better since NM was 4th from the bottom of my implied reads list

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I do feel like my reads are stagnating a lot right now which is annoying. Maybe I feel a bit better about Dann than I did last time I talked about how I feel about him, not for any strong reason related to him doing anything, moreso just mulling the read over in general.

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You don't feel all that non-committal or collaborative in this game implo

I’ve been extremely noncommittal this game lol I’ve said many times my reads are garbage

I haven’t been that collaborative because I haven’t had anyone to work with that I’ve felt great about; my actions toward klick and dann are both geared toward potentially working with them in the long run though

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hello

i now feel awkward about the way i'm being talked about

i'm trying to be productive today so trying to limit how much i'm thinking about this game

I can see at least

some

of dann's black case but will need to look at it more closely later and such

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also fine w ceejay lim

i'll have some more to say soon most likely

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in the words of alisae, I just don’t get the vibe that Black “wants to be right”

This is an interesting philosophy I haven't heard before, but I see where it's coming from here.

the response to me voting her being “what is your plan to fade me” feels contrived. It feels like Black trying to find the towniest looking reaction rather than just her genuine reaction to me tunneling her

I also agree that this post kind of stuck out to me. Particularly "how confident are you i'm scum *and* what's your plan to get me faded" is kind of weird, like the answer to the former might imply the answer to the latter being that there is no plan. I can see it being not-all-that-thought-through false bravado as scum in principle.

Like this:

I'm seeing what Black is doing as more akin to what cowbells or fleaf do as both alignments in the early game. She's pouncing on every little thing and acting all murder death kill without actual conviction, sure, but I get that more in the sense that she's trying to get to a point where she thinks she is right than in the sense that she's trying to look like she's right, if that makes any sense.

I don't think this adequately rebuts the Black case to me. I think that when cowbells jumps from person to person in the early game, he does it

with

conviction. Like at any given moment, he's ready to rest where he is and hard push the person he's landed on - it's just that he's also ready to jump elsewhere. Here it doesn't really feel that way from Black, it feels like she's flitting about in a way where not a whole lot sticks from person to person. For instance with me, she said she didn't like a sequence of posts, then voted, then later unvoted. But she never really analyzed any of my content beyond that sequence of posts - like the vote on me never really had teeth behind it. Similar with the worst - she's interacted with the worst a lot but hasn't really analyzed the worst's content in depth in a way that would make the read convincing to someone else. It's not that Black's iso is void of analysis but it seems like she isn't really specifically analyzing the content of whoever her vote is on i guess

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Hold on I have a thing

we're all waiting

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implo uses a lot of hedging language much more as scum and asks a lot less questions as scum too.

dang, too bad I haven't asked any questions whatsoever in the entire game

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not that i necessarily think that's a legitimate metric by which to read me, i have no idea if it is

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Anyway I see where Dann is coming from on Black more than I had expected to. I think Dann himself is like, more or less null to me at this point. Wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if he flipped either way.

I don't know how I feel about duck right now. I want to like Bingle more but idk I should. I also don't know how much it's worth elaborating on reads in general right now if ceejay is getting limmed in the near future but if anyone wants to chat then etc

UNVOTE: duck

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dann can you please rank every possible scumteam in order of viability and in particular give each of them a precise probability that you think that team has of being the scumteam such that all the probabilities add up to 1. in depth explanations for each are appreciated. thanks

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I can't really find myself caring at this point I wish the people that were lined up to die would play the game

i think this is a fundamental issue to forum mafia a lot of the time

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it's downright unassailable

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We either have a vanilla cop (i.e., a named townie) or a follower (i.e., a cop). Sort of silly how big the power difference is between those two in this exact situation. Obviously if there is a follower who saw someone make the kill, they should out it and we win. Otherwise, this seems like a situation where we ought to hypoclaim, i.e. everyone say "if i'm a follower, then i followed X and they didn't act".

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actually it might theoretically be better to hypoclaim like, near the end of the day or something, bc the one downside to hypoclaiming is that scum can try to narrow down who the follower is based on who's willing to lim their supposed inno, and that'd let people who aren't the follower hypoclaim on someone who they've acted like they have an inno on anyway. of course we might not have a follower and it might be moot, etc.

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well maybe that's something you need to work through

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anyway ceejay flipping scum is really boring >_> it didn't feel particularly vindicating

idk who the other scum is, I don't think Black's hammer is clearing of her

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PC is literally the only player in the game who was not explicitly fine with ceejay dying i think

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i'm pretty wiped out today and there's a lot of content that i don't especially have energy to engage with, tbh.

i've kind of read through it all and i can sort of see the angle where pc is scum and i can see the angle where in practice black scum rarely doesn't just wait for ceejay to claim to draw a counterclaim

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if i'm follower i have an inno on dann

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all of what

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like I don't really have a ton to say right now, honestly this game is kind of uninteresting to me at this exact moment just because of the fact that there's 1 scum out of 7 people and that I find trying to read into ceejay's play agonizingly boring to some degree and i can like, give reasons why each individual person feels unlikely or feels possible but it's all very intangible until the pool whittles (or maybe we'll just win today). The prospect that the other scum is PC, the person who didn't mention ceejay basically at all and who has been tunneling me all game, is like, deeply boring to me. Maybe I also disagree with it? I don't think I really disagree with it as a moderately likely possibility, it's just like, if that's the world we live in then well i basically just feel like this is a complete description of the game:

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i think not assuming PC is town is silly lol.

I feel meh about NM and implosion as well but I think that's less about lack of confidence in how they play, and more about them being genuinely difficult to read

I feel sympathetic toward this but on the flip side, I don't think it's like duck or black or dannflor are exactly not genuinely difficult to read.

Hot take of the minute (now that i am actually iso'ing ceejay for the first time since he was limmed): 519 contains the name of the last scum bc ceejay was asked about reads on that page, he mentioned me and bingle as scumreads, and then he felt bad that he hadn't really elaborated on his scumbuddy yet

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I think that is actually genuinely how I feel at this exact moment though.

I don't think N_M can't be scum by any means but he did, by all relative measures, come in absolutely guns blazing toward ceejay. He didn't vote ceejay early but it feels to me at least somewhat like not what he'd do as scum here.

I think I do probably buy that Black is unlikely to make the hammer as scum in that situation. At least, it is in some sense "objectively" bad play; it's not literally that, you'd just be hard relying on the town to give you so much credit for the hammer that it'd outweigh the benefit of e.g. eliciting counterclaims. Or maybe ceejay was planning on claiming VT, idk.

And Klick I don't think is scum from yesterday stuff and no one really seems to disagree so I'm not really thinking that hard about the slot right now.

Fmpov, that leaves dann and worst. I don't really think either of them have especially done stuff they would not have done as scum. worst spent a lot of time flitting about yesterday and made a lot of efforts yesterday to help get ceejay back into the game; it's not like he wouldn't have done this as town (in fact, it'd be good play as town!) but it's also good play as scum to give ceejay opportunities to get out of the hole. The timing of his ceejay vote is fairly town i think though.

Dannflor's play similarly, is like, not things he wouldn't have done as town, but I feel it's easy to fit an arc to his play as scum; he spent most of d1 doing nothing super specific but he called me/ceejay a possible scumteam, and then eventually called black/ceejay the scumteam. His play makes sense as scum because that big case post on black that also calls ceejay scum serves to reintroduce someone to the lim pool, because dann if scum needs the lim pool over time to have enough people in it. Like, I think for both of them I struggle to distinguish where their play is coming from when I feel like both of them have done things that make plenty of sense as both alignments.

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also i will also be in texas in about a week!

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(p-edit: this is responding to dann)

I mean, i understand that the same analysis i'm giving there applies to me. me wanting you and worst to be in the elimination pool is obviously sensible if i'm scum. I'm basically saying that right now you two are sort of a poe pool; the biggest reason that I feel bad about that is that I'm not entirely sure what circumstances I'd be able to have more confident reads on either of you under. And yeah, i'm probably being melodramatic in painting reading either of you (particularly you) as this herculean task.

Ultimately the answer is no, I don't really care that much about solving you if I'm able to solve enough of the rest of the game, though.

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And dann, frankly if you are town I'm not sure how I'm supposed to distinguish this game from what I know of how you play as scum from Toriel's. Your big post in this game about Black has similar, not identical, but similar vibes to [url=viewtopic.php?p=14000311#p14000311]this[/post] post to me from that game. They're both big well-reasoned posts with specific agendas trying to massage the state of the game in a particular direction; both of them come at times when you, if scum, need to make big moves to win (in this game you didn't necessarily need to make a big move then, but at some point you'd need to make some sort of moves). That post paints a picture in my head of you playing very intentionally as scum and I feel your play this game fits that perfectly well with the ceejay flip.

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fixing tag:

And dann, frankly if you are town I'm not sure how I'm supposed to distinguish this game from what I know of how you play as scum from Toriel's. Your big post in this game about Black has similar, not identical, but similar vibes to this post to me from that game. They're both big well-reasoned posts with specific agendas trying to massage the state of the game in a particular direction; both of them come at times when you, if scum, need to make big moves to win (in this game you didn't necessarily need to make a big move then, but at some point you'd need to make some sort of moves). That post paints a picture in my head of you playing very intentionally as scum and I feel your play this game fits that perfectly well with the ceejay flip.

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Anyway I may as well go over what I was thinking earlier when I ISO'd ceejay:

VOTE: Klick

I kind of don't like that vote

also aside from a maybe Black town am not getting much out of this yet

This reads as both not partnered to me. "I kind of don't like that vote" and "maybe black town" are both things i would be absolutely terrified to say about a scumbuddy in my first content post

His RVS and his next vote are both on conftown. 165 is neutral since TW asked a question specifically. 167 also feels non-partnery to Klick. 384 is first mention of Dann and also fairly neutral (replying to an attack). 511 is his first mention of me; knowing I'm town I think it's probably an explicit attempt to look partnery with a limp push. I'm the 2nd last person that he addresses directly (the last being n_m who he calls not mafia in 553, which, shrug).

I think the most interesting thing (and the thing I mentioned above) is 517 and 519:

Spoiler:

ceejay what are your three most confident reads and why

bingle, implosion and...

nah I haven't found a third one yet that sort of grabs my interest. Maybe PC?

These aren't really confident reads but

I haven't really read anything from bingle yet that makes me go "oh this one really looks like it comes from town" and would make me unvote which doesn't make him necessarily scum but I'm not happy about it either

implosion I don't really vibe with either. I feel like he's engaging for the sake of engaging and I thought sometimes he goes out a bit of his way to make his posts a bit more vague? Granted this could just also be how he posts but I've been feeling like parsing implosion's posts sort of feels a bit harder than parsing other players

is this scummy? am not sure but its what got my attention

ceejay, what are you two weakest reads and why

I just figured out that am not being specifically asked for scum reads lol

You sort of feel townish but at the same time a good chunk of your engagement this game has been about your meta and I don't really have the energy or time to dig into those

I also feel like the worst had a bit of a rough start but their posts are sort of getting better but I don't reaaly feel like sorting them this early in the game

When asked about confident reads (which he interprets as confident scumreads) he lists me + the two conftown. He gives some analysis on me and Bingle. He hasn't really given a lot of analysis in general up to this point. I think when making 519, he'd naturally want to give some analysis on a partner (perhaps unless that partner is n_m). I guess he was answering the question of what is "weakest" reads are and he was claiming to have a stronger townread on Black and maybe Klick. So maybe they're just the two people to talk about at that point, idk. maybe someone else can read something into all this

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okay. i think i am coming around to duck-town; that post from duck dann linked is interesting in that yeah, black hammering without a claim is terrible form as town in this setup. i'm recalibrating a bit.

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i do also think information is a really useless metric in this situation; right now from a neutral PoV there are six people and one of those six is scum. every wrong lim gives us the same information, that one of those people is not scum. I don't think the info "the worst isn't scum" is more information than the info "not_mafia isn't scum" because it's not like it helps us solve other people better. it's not like worst flipping town would give dann a bunch of scum equity whereas not_mafia flipping town would give black a bunch of scum equity, because both the worst and not_mafia are town in both of those worlds.

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okay. i think i am coming around to duck-town; that post from duck dann linked is interesting in that yeah, black hammering without a claim is terrible form as town in this setup. i'm recalibrating a bit.

I'm not sure why that post is enough to make you townread tw. If he's scum then it's pretty clear that his objective here is to misfade me or NM. This post fits into that agenda nicely

I will agree that the hammer was bad form, absolutely, but bad form doesn't equal scummy. I would argue that townies make questionable decisions like that more often than scum

Not just that post, there are other things that I'll explain soon maybe

[implosion]

i don't particularly want tw either, i'll generate some Content

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I think the comments about tw seeming to enjoy himself ring true to his play over time. Even if he thinks it isn't actually AI, the sort of wholistic way he's interacting with the game over time feels like he is trying to do things and like his response to me kind of being a bit of an ass to him reads-wise (as in, staunch refusal to commit to anything on him/leaving him at mildly scummy for that reason forever) sort of reads over time as genuine. I think Dann's points on him are decent as well

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I really don't understand why there is seemingly 0 impetus to critically analyze dannflor right now though. I maybe missed people's current reasons that they said but I feel like like, black and maybe others have just said "eh we'll come back here later if needed" and i don't feel great about that!

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At this moment I'm feeling like my vote lands on Black a lot of the time. The only reason I drifted off her is bc the hammer seems like bad play as scum. I think there's plenty of potential human motivation to do it though, either her being frustrated at scumbuddy being basically consigned d1 or her wanting to just try something or whatever. Yeah, I think townies do make questionable decisions more often than scum in some sense but the decision to quickhammer ceejay is questionable in a very different way as town vs as scum. Both are questionable because they sort of "obviously" lose some equity in your side winning; as scum because you could have had ceejay claim and draw a counter, as town because you could be hammering a power role. But as scum there's clear compensation to that; you get to say you quickhammered the scum power role. As town there's really no clear compensation from a strategic perspective, and yeah the scum compensation is arguably bad but it's entirely possible to panic as scum on d1 in a setup like this and think that something like that is your only long-term viable wincon. To me this also kind of doesn't feel like the kind of game that town (other than NM) often quickhammers in; it's a good player list, it's a game lots of people are watching, idk.

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Idk do you have specific concerns beyond me not being out of my scum range

I've mentioned a lot of your play seems to follow the path and strategic sensibilities that I think you would have as scum here

[implosion]

I guess I haven't really mentioned that for "a lot of" your play but etc

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i'm not sure, and i tend to settle on "probably not particularly".

I suspect that there could exist games where I could get a real, correct townread on you, but this has not been one of them. Are there aspects of your play in this game that you think I in particular ought to view as unlikely to come from you as scum?

[implosion]

VOTE: Black

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fwiw in this specific moment i think black has quite good scum equity

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Did PC clear anyone?

Everyone alive is VT or goon so PC's results were meaningless

I feel bad about how that played out

What precisely do you mean by this?

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What made you lose faith in that read or part of the read in the following pages? Or are you only realizing now with hindsight that it was a good read?

I have a lot to say about that line but I think I'm just overanalyzing it

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Where is your confidence in duck-town at right now?

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In broad strokes, I think it's Dann and that we're going to lose and if not then it's probably n_m and we're also going to lose lol.

I don't know if it's really possible to convince people I'm town in this lobby but i will be trying assuming n_m doesn't quickhammer me

[implosion]

alas. guess i don't have to deal with it anymore

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honestly maybe it is duck for being willing to put me at e-1 in a n_m lobby. genuinely. that's buck wild

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i will be shocked if we win, that's all i'll say lol. idfk who it is