Open 108 - Weak M.D. - Game over before 725

[popsofctown]

Glad to see this started!

Rofl, I don't know why you voted for korts, can you explain?

Also, why so lurky korts and caboose? You haven't said a word since you got voted/fos'd by rofl.

Lol... you expected their response within 17 minutes?!?!

i second the request for an explanation from Rofl. That's not a challenge, but i'm generally from the camp that thinks meta info is very helpful so i'd like to hear what he knows

[popsofctown]

its a random vote. i random vote korts in every game we play together, because he has an alarmingly high rate of being scum when i'm in the game. almost 100%.

Every single one except for The New C9 so far of our finished games, but rofl replaced out of that one.

So yeah.

vote: Netlava

The dice are a lie!

OOooOOh.
I've found scum then!

vote: Korts

.... gambler's fallacy, what's that? go away!!

[popsofctown]

First person to vote me in random tends to be scum in past games. So I'm suspicious of Korts.

ooh, we got all sorts of powerful meta working for us!

So, do you self vote in random when you play scum? Because that'd be fascinating.

[popsofctown]

you could MAKE it apply when your town if you wanted to be cool...




{every mafiascum players' inner child wants popsofctown to think he or she is cool}

[popsofctown]

I'm pretty sure no one's played this setup before GIEFF.

There's alot of variables here with this hypo-targetting. Let's try to work out a good plan, and maybe we can figure out who's scum based on who starts hissing over details.

I don't see why rigid is going to be the best, flexible can be better. I don't think we need to worry about scum undermining the strategic plan, that about as plausible as scum convincing us that gambler's fallacy is true and that we should lynch Korts- everyone can see that's not true. And if scum suggests that x should definitely target y, it will be the same kind of open, bad reasoning, the town isn't going to approve it.

I think doing separate hypo targetting for weak doc and weak hider could be beneficial. Making a strategic change for a very townie player to be double hypo targeted by weak doc could be good (more likely protection for a good little boy), making a strategic change for a very townie player to be double hypo hided could be very bad (more likely double kill since the mafia naturally wants to kill obvtown).

[popsofctown]

And prevents a double death from the hider and weak doc^^^^

Why don't we just lay some ground rules and then turn everyone's hypo claims loose?

But we have to lay those ground rules first. Let me give my call on the four rules:


1. All players hypo targetted each night:

That doesn't actually cover everyone you know, because only two of us are actually hider/doc. It's important that the hider and doc don't actually target the same person though, as has been said, could be double death. I would say, forbid a final hypoclaim setup that possibly double targets anyone, but don't require that everyone get covered. (both will probably happen anyway)

2. Every player hypo-targets a new player each night

Yes, yes. That should be a rule. I think it's obvious that this gives us most info.

3. Does order matter?

Obviously it does matter. I don't think leaving the power roles to grab first turn if they feel they want it is a good idea. Given freedom, they'll probably rolefish themselves. Everyone's human. Computers aren't. I think someone should pull a random number generator and assign an order, and we just follow that.

4. Should we hypoclaim for both roles?

At first i'd say yes. On second thought, what about hider hypo only? The weak doc is far more useful than the hider it seems to me, the hider goes double or nothing while the weak doc actually saves skin. If we go hypo hider, say we get one confirmed innocent and one confirmed guilty. Then we get a lynch, and the weak doc can protect our confirmed innocent every night.


Or, here's a third option. Everyone hider hypoclaims different people. The entire town hypo doc claims whom we think is the most innocent. That way we confirm an innocent per night with the weak doc, but kind of make sure the more useful power role stays alive. The hider blazes a trail of innocents (and besides the weak docs') and hits a guilty eventually. In endgame, we hopefully have a weak doc protecting people from a large pool of innocents against N-1 mafia ( i should check how many mafia are in this game, i know).


I like third option, any holes?

[popsofctown]

I thought hider dies anyway in that scenario. Weak doc protects from NKs, not from hiding with mafia. . . ?

[popsofctown]

What if we do half the hypo docs on the most townie person, half the docs on second most townie person? That covers the self protect issue, and makes it so the scum have to avoid killing the two best nightkills in town. As long as we keep the rule about not doing same person two nights in a row, we would get a good trail of innocents, without high risk of losing the weak doc, who we can use for actual random protection late game.

I've already explained why you needn't worry about mafia manipulation of the hypo claims. They're in the open, we can discuss them openly, i don't see how mafia can construe it. If mafia try to say "B is very innocent and would make a good target for half the hypo docs", you can say, "No, don't lie in broad day light, B has already claimed vanilla, hider, and weak doc today he's almost certainly scum"

[popsofctown]

Gambler's fallacy is not a fallacy, it's full of win!

Revote: Korts

!!!

[popsofctown]

BSG seems to be more toward my persepective on our theory discussion in a way, except he's saying we should possibly allow repeat targets for weak doc. I'd also consider the possibility of multiple hypodoc claims on the same target, even if only on N2.


I'm not sure if me or Korts is failing at internet former, my defense of Gambler's Fallacy and saying it's not a fallacy is meant to be a joke.

[popsofctown]

internet humor, not internet former

[popsofctown]

It looks as though my logic is faulty in your eyes, and I see I am going to get lynched.

I wouldn't call your fate sealed Ryan... Games aren't two weeks long here, and if you can call the day's lynch by the end of page 4, you are a wiser man than I.

[popsofctown]

Ok, so let's vote on some resolutions regarding hypo claim today, we'll try to take them one at a time.

Resolution 1: We will hypo claim for both weak doc and hider today.
I'll call this as being already resolved, yes.

Resolution 2:
a. Every player must be hypo hide-targetted once.
b. Every player must be hypo protect-targetted once.


Ok, two things at a time. I agree with part a, not part b. I think weak doc is sort of valuable, and so we should go more towards rofl's plan of willy nilly selection there, so that the actual weak doc gets to actual pick someone he thinks is townie (he's just going to hypo claim for us so we get a scum confirm if he's wrong)

So my vote is for Resolution 2a to be passed, and Resolution 2b to be spiked. (let's keep weak doc at b for consistency if we can)

[popsofctown]

rofl, is that yes to 2A and no to 2B like me?

[popsofctown]

I think in order as their listed on first page of the thread. If anyone thinks i have an agenda they can do alphabetical, or some other arbitrary mesage

[popsofctown]

*arbitrary order.... don't know where mesage came from.

[popsofctown]

We seem to have a majority passing Resolutions 1 and 2a.

Resolution 3: the order of hypoclaims will be popcorn, with random people making hypoclaims throughout the day and changing at will (in accordance with Resolution 2a)


I vote nay. I think this will get the power roles caught easier and i favor an alphabetic plan.

[popsofctown]

My plan was to finish hypoclaim discussion as fast as possible and then be done with it. Then we can scumhunt.

I'm a guy, i can't really multitask ~~~

[popsofctown]

Resolution 3: declined/pigeonholed

Resolution 4: We shall use a random method to pick the first hypo claimer. After he or she gives both hypoclaims, that person selects someone to hypo claim next.


**if resolution 4 passes (i like it quite well, it satisfies my fishing concern), we are going to have trouble picking someone to run the random number generator, since they could, you know, lie. Does someone know of some public online website that regularly gives out lotto numbers? We could declare a day, look at the lotto number for that day and assign first pick using x%12= number zero to eleven that matches the first page of the thread.)

[popsofctown]

I am here

[popsofctown]

let's vote on that last resolution so we can get the hypoclaims going soon

[popsofctown]

Sure Korts can start the claiming.

I just wanted to get it ironed out because i thought we were nearing a lynch

because i forgot i was in a 12 player game instead of 9

.

So, hypo claiming is decided and i can start scumhunting.

Korts has a point, it's a bit paranoid to talk about OMGUS before you make a case. It's a term that gets misused a lot, i'd rather not have a armchair discussion about attacks with OMGUS components...

I don't see why Ryan is getting so much flak right now. Can someone summarize? I don't have a handle on this game yet but i need to get my foot in the door on it.
I'm not liking Gamma's circle talking right now. Basic "confusing the town" behavior.

[popsofctown]

It will most likely get called out as OMGUS. that's fine with me.

Why pre-emptively defend OMGUS accusations? Are you deliberately making an OMGUS case?

Do you want it to be an OMGUS case?

Would you answer my question with something other than a question, please?

And if I don't?

To understate, this isn't productive material you're putting out Gamma

[popsofctown]

He is being unhelpful, and you can call his pre-emptive OMGUS phobia a pre-strawman if you look at it another way (it looks horrible all the ways). I'd second the vote, but I want this day to last long enough for Hiders and Doctors to get good targets. I want to get fake targets i can be happy with on both, which could take a while since i'd need a lynch target, a second scummy person, and someone i think is town. That's a lot of work..

HoS: Gamma

Gamma, please play to whatever win condition you have and defend yourself.

[popsofctown]

ooh, simulposting.

I see why the quote would look weird GIEFF. TBH, i for some reason can't think about two things at once, so i didn't have any targets at all in mind. Up till the point of that statement i was working on getting a hypoclaim system down, and finally had to swtich gears and actually understand this thread. I think maybe GIEFF's posting maybe makes it hard to read, but for some reason this thread is hard, and stuff keeps going in one ear and out the other. I've tried rereading it but, it doesn't help much.

[popsofctown]

I don't buy the "can't multitask" reason for not voting or scumhunting, pops. In the course of reading the thread, don't things naturally jump out at you as being scummy, or even just as being odd? Don't you see others' votes and ask yourself if you agree with their logic? Also, it looks like you are in three other games right now; is both scumhunting and discussing strategy in one game really more difficult than playing in four games at once? I'll ask again:

Have you noticed suspicious things and consciously waited to post them until the hypoclaiming is over, or do you mean that you just haven't noticed anything scummy yet?

Alright, I'm not gonna lie. I'm more interested in my other games than this one right now, and i'm giving it less energy. As pennance, i'm gonna do a reread right after this post, RL time permitting.

I haven't noticed anything scummy yet, the second one.

I think the length of your posts is what makes this thread hard to read. I'm not sure whether it's bad for the town or good for the town... do what you can to clarify more than you clutterfy if you can.

Any further players who intend to vote Gamma, please, do not officially do it, just express your intent.

I have my own convention for this, i'm trying to popularize it to wiki level fame!

Cupcake: Gamma

[deadpan]Although my vote on Korts is a dead serious correct application of Gambler's Fallacy [/deadpan]

[popsofctown]

Reread post:

ooooh ok, on reread i'm getting more of an idea of what happened concerning ryan

Unvote

Vote: Gamma

as well

Unvote, Vote ryan2754

for voting for no reason and having a seemingly serious vote on page 1.

FoS: Badguy

. This is one of the strange=scum fallacies i see from scum a lot. I only read newbieness in ryan's first post, and a failure to read a timestamp. That aside, there's no reason provided here that a serious vote on page 1 helps the scum more than it helps the town.
"Voting for no reason" is valid, but the wording is disconcerting. He probably had reasoning, and it was probably similar to the post above it. What he means to say here is either "bandwagoning" or "bandwagoning without providing your own reasons".

I think this is my second scummiest player on the board right now.

here. Didn't mean to be a fence sitter. I got busy at work and was unable to review it. Then forgot, then site went down.

Ryan is all I got.

Vote: ryan2574

EsoMonty responds waay to easily to pressure. I personally am always uber skeptical of "fencesitting" tells, because to me it doesn't seem innate to the game. It's the informed minority against the uninformed majority... don't people who lack information have the most trouble making decisions?

Either way, EsoMonty seems overly concerned with his appearance. That's bad.

FoS: EsoMonty

FTR, someone DID accuse him of fencesitting GIEFF, Caboose did on page something.

[popsofctown]

simulposting


GIEFF, i know you try to save claims for as long as you can, and usually i'm the one arguing to wait longer for claims, but Gamma is refusing to cooperate. If a player wants to be lynched like this, he can get it.

I think Gamma knows that Korts is supposed to hypo claim first, and the ten other reasons he shouldn't be hypoclaiming right now. He's not going to cooperate with us, at all.

[popsofctown]

I think blakadder and possibly others have lurked this game too hard for us to start the hypoclaiming.

[popsofctown]

This is a scumlynch. Korts made a legit point about the OMGUS statement, so you got more pressure. You're not reacting in a manner that indicates you are town.

It's never good to lynch townies just for playing poorly, but this is not one of those cases. You've been acting like scum.

[popsofctown]

No, i wasn't calling him a townie. Gamma was trying to construe his wagon's intetnions to be lynching someone they know to be a townie, as punishment for playing mafia poorly. I'm saying he's providing evidence that he's scum, not playing poorly as a townie. Howd you misread my post? That's what the whole thing's about.

[popsofctown]

Now that you've claimed, it becomes more anti-town for us to choose another target to lynch, because it increases our chances of outing a power role, and narrows down the nk for the scum.

His claim has pushed his lynch to be pretty much a must. The scum already have enhanced NK selection due to the hypo claiming. The scum will know the three people that weren't hypo hide targetted by a town-aligned player, and probably not kill those people.

[popsofctown]

I'm not going to sure if that's an actual inquiry unless you put it in a sentence.

[popsofctown]

He's still given no new case, or even a reitieration of his other case. He's apparently trying to claim his scummy behavior was induced by the hypo-claim discussion?

[popsofctown]

i think there's some discussion in mafia discussion about whether someone can be too town or not.

At any rate, i think you would need meta-confirmation before voting someone for being too town.

Is that your cat in the sig?

[popsofctown]

EBWOP: avatar


which makes me notice you have no sig. get one. you could do a quote.

[popsofctown]

yes, very happy.

If you manage to live very long at all, i'll probably say something more noteworthy about you.

What's your avatar a picture of?

[popsofctown]

i used a question mark because i wasn't sure.

@Korts: i think a better interpetation of my third person usage is that i'm more intent on convincing the town of Gamma's guilt then I am of trying to have any sort of dialog with gamma. He answers questions with questions and posts crap like lolwut.

I put a question mark on my interpretation of his post because i'm not sure what he's saying, and welcome being corrected.

[popsofctown]

Korts has a point, it's a bit paranoid to talk about OMGUS before you make a case. It's a term that gets misused a lot, i'd rather not have a armchair discussion about attacks with OMGUS components...

He is being unhelpful, and you can call his pre-emptive OMGUS phobia a pre-strawman if you look at it another way (it looks horrible all the ways). I'd second the vote, but I want this day to last long enough for Hiders and Doctors to get good targets.

HoS: Gamma

Gamma, please play to whatever win condition you have and defend yourself.

That's what was in the posts that came before the cupcake. I thought it was adequate enough to explain my vote.

@magisterrain: I want to convince everyone else that he's scum because i think he's scum. He's the day's best lynch.. I don't think he's angry town, i think he's scum playing angry town.

[popsofctown]

EsoMonty, FoS's and votes are just conventions that people optionally use to emphasize their suspicions about a player. (a vote has actual lynching power, but it's sometimes used more as a convention then an actual attempt get someone lynched). No one has to use those conventions if they don't want to. Sometimes i use an FoS or HoS, sometimes i just talk about my suspicions without bolding anything, especially if they aren't serious, aren't tied to one specific action, or are especially dependent on the reaction i get.

[popsofctown]

Wow that last paragraph was hard to understand.

Let me rephrase, Poster A posted that someone might be Mafia. Poster B posted that Poster A might be mafia for not backing that up with a vote, and then proceeded not to back his up with a vote. I caught him in his mistake but figured that it might actually be a good tell to use.

Might be time to mention another protocol: it's generally forbidden to discuss any game outside of its respective thread, unless the thread has reached completion. Saying poster A or poster B isn't really sufficient, as players from your game could hypathetically go to your "view posts", and see you talking about situations that resemble their own too closely.

You perhaps could argue that what I've quoted couldn't have any bearing on your alignment or anyone else's in whatever game you're speaking of, but you should err on the side of caution and not make that evaluation yourself.

Sorry about being some sort of faux-IC this game...

Btw, you don't have to let anyone bark at you about skipping Road to Rome. I'm pretty sure its the site's flake trap, and you're not a flake.. it's a recommended place to start, it's not a rule.

[popsofctown]

I really think Gamma should be our lynch for the day. Although on second thought i need to be open to the possibility that someone could be scummier than him, i don't think someone could be so much scummier than Gamma that they are a better lynch than Gamma, who has claimed Vanilla, which is especially bad when scum already have some (admittedly scant) information on night actions.

I think we should do hypoclaims after we decide on a lynch. I don't see how delaying that stagnates the day. Every other game gets to a lynch consensus without using hypoclaims to spur them all the way there. We can hypoclaim after. Gieff's idea, something like connecting the last wire back to the first one, is one less person that gets to choose their own hypoclaim. We want everyone to choose don't we?

Last thing, picking a hypoclaim target. I came up with a good idea for a verifiable random selection. We use the post count of some mafia player at some point in time. Just some prominent person from mafia discussion maybe. Mr. Flay, or Farside22, Adel, Thok, Glork... one of those. Pick a far enough away time, anyone from this game is welcome to check at that moment to see the post count. TotalPostCount%12. Good?

Or i'm fine with Korts just doing it instead. BSG picking a scumpartner to start the hypoclaim is improbable and not really a problem.

[popsofctown]

what's IIoA?

[popsofctown]

couldn't BSG be accused of this as well? (a check for understanding)

[popsofctown]

how can you call people town so certainly, and without reasons? rofl's "opinion" style is weird to me. He really always does that?

[popsofctown]

Hypos: Popsofctown ducked behind BSG and fired his medigun at Korts!! He signalled to empking that it was his time to strike...

[popsofctown]

no that's not right. The weak doc hypo claim can be anyone, only the hypo hide claim is restricted to previously unhypohided people. (we reached the decision by a well documented process). Try to hypo people you actually would target if you have that role (read the pms to make that call). If you do have that role, it's imperative you follow through with your own hypo claim. (otherwise you could quite possibly blow up the town). nominate someone who hasn't gone yet to hypoclaim, after you do so.

[popsofctown]

I've already hypo claimed. i'm behind bsg.

[popsofctown]

hm... i could go and make a correct list.... or bank that gieff is our list and organization superstar and hope he does it...oh look, the bells about to ring!!

[popsofctown]

Wow, GIEFF made a chart for us. After this game i'm gonna nominate him for "Internet Superstar"

Gamma
- Said he was worried hypoclaim discussion would swallow the day, then does nothing with his actions - like building cases or accelerating hypo discussion- to actually show he is concerned.
-Says that he thinks his case will be construed as OMGUS even as he says it
-Won't answer questions, instead asks questions to the questions
-Claimed town early, as part of an emotional appealish defense
-We really ought to kill him just to decrease the scum's ability to knock out our power roles, he's the only player to already have claimed.

[popsofctown]

-I think Gamma lynch tells us a lot more about roflcopter than ryan lynch does. His feeling that ryan is scummy is definitely understandable, but his defense of gamma, at least to me, takes me aback. Gamma lynch would tell me more about whether he knows something i don't or wants to defend a scum partner because he thinks the wagon is easy to mischaracterize (remember "He seems to be the vi that attracted a wagon")

[popsofctown]

Do you want some quote legwork for posts that should have let ryan know what's going on?

[popsofctown]

NO! NO! NOT RC! Get OUT of my games!! Aaaarh!!

[popsofctown]

*Fires a bullet through each heart*

[popsofctown]

Gamma has already claimed Nilla town.. do you mean hypo claim? I think we are saying that his first hypoclaim didn't count, so yeah, he could do that.

Based on RC totally blasting me last game, i'm deciding that he's unreadable. I shall therefore base my opinion of him totally on BSG, who is probably readable. That puts him at slight town read for the rest of the game.
Unreadable by me that is. You guys can try. If you're like, juggernauts of mafia. Korts maybe, i've heard of him being good.

[popsofctown]

@RC- I'm hypoprotecting someone that i'm voting, so what does that make me XP

Well... unless someone intends to back out on their Gamma vote, there's no need for Gamma to make a hypoclaim. I want to hammer him, and can.

Any objections?

[popsofctown]

I expect you to, if he doesn't.

Please read all the posts in the thread, it takes longer to write then it does to read.

I will wait for Gamma to post his case on me, although i think a response like "How now brown cow?" is equally likely.

[popsofctown]

Gieff was statistically more likely to be scum based on Night results, was he not? yet from skimming, it seem you guys totally ignored that in further decisions.

Hypoclaiming takes the fun out of stuff, so i wouldn't run this again. The dominant strategy requires me to think up night actions i don't have to do. (i know, vanilla had twice as much to complain about).

[popsofctown]

no kill or targetted me is like, what, 2/8 possible actions? something crazy like that.

[popsofctown]

qft

[popsofctown]

that's what you think <_<, >_>.

I meant incognito is a good mod, but was too lazy to actually quote