Open 101 - Two of Four - Game over before 712


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Post Post #200 (ISO) » Sat Jan 03, 2009 1:42 am

Post by ZazieR »

Ripley, you're wrong. It can't be Veerus anymore. Veerus was the roleblocker and he has said that he has blocked CC during the night. As the mod opened this game before CC could submit his night action, it seems that Veerus is telling the truth. Or this was all a mod error, which would be a huge one.
As we have three powerrole claims, we have only three players left to investigate. As shown above, I don't think that Veerus is the last scum. This leaves only CC and Ripley. However, if it wasn't a mod error, it's a sure town win.
Of these two players, gut says it's Ripley.
Ripley wrote:If I were scum, there is absolutely no reason for me to draw attention to myself when I’m under no particular suspicion.
Ripley wrote:I could just sit here quietly while CarnCarn, and then probably TCS, gets lynched.
I don't like these quotes from him.
Although it seems that CC was role-blocked, it doesn't mean that CC is scum. As said, the last scum could have gone for a no-kill to blame Veerus's target. However, CC could be the last scum. But my gut says otherwise due to these Ripley quotes and therefore I'll
vote Ripley

Now it's your turn to claim Ripley
Ignore the ''R''
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Post Post #201 (ISO) » Sat Jan 03, 2009 3:53 am

Post by Ripley »

Luckily I am the cop.
Vote CarnCarn
.

ZazieR, CarnCarn is saying this about the thread being opened early in order to make his claim sound more convincing by sounding like a roleblocked power role. The thread may possibly have been opened before he sent a choice, because he was roleblocked, but if so it was his choice of NK as scum, not his investigation as cop. I sent in my choice Dec 31 4.28 pm my time, got a reply 8.08 pm my time and the thread was opened 3 minutes later. I investigated axle135 who was obviously innocent.

But none of this detail really matters any more since with two claimed cops you now have a straight 50/50 choice and time to lynch both.
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Post Post #202 (ISO) » Sat Jan 03, 2009 4:24 am

Post by The Central Scrutinizer »

Book 'em, Danno.
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Post Post #203 (ISO) » Sat Jan 03, 2009 5:24 am

Post by veerus »

It's game over.

The ONLY reason why the mod would open the thread early is if he had received ALL the night actions. Therefore, CC had submitted his action.

"gg" as the kids say.
On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.
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Post Post #204 (ISO) » Sat Jan 03, 2009 5:30 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

vote count 6

CarnCarn 3 (veerus, TCS, Ripley)

Ripley 1 (ZazieR)

not voting - axle135, CarnCarn

With 6 alive, 4 will lynch before deadline.


Obivoulsy I cannot confirm anything about last night.
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Post Post #205 (ISO) » Sat Jan 03, 2009 5:32 am

Post by ZazieR »

Unvote vote CarnCarn
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Post Post #206 (ISO) » Sat Jan 03, 2009 5:40 am

Post by CarnCarn »

bah, that's the last thing I thought you were. gg, since no matter what I lose now.

Vote: CarnCarn
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Post Post #207 (ISO) » Sat Jan 03, 2009 5:48 am

Post by Ripley »

I'd actually convinced myself I'd given myself away as cop with my concern over the cop getting NK'ed with an innocent result. So I was surprised when that was your actual claim. Though I think you'd made it almost impossible for yourself to claim doc by never raising the possibility of the no-kill being a doc protect.
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Post Post #208 (ISO) » Sat Jan 03, 2009 5:48 am

Post by CarnCarn »

Looking back, ThAd and Kaiveran didn't talk at all before the game, which really hurt us because we didn't figure out what to do about massclaiming. I was trying to subtly explain to ThAd in-thread about what we should do if we claim, but I think if we talked about it beforehand, I would obviously have pushed for massclaim D1. Usually, in an open game, scum need to think and plan out some things, and not doing so hurt us.

Anyway, I was in a pretty bad position D2. My only way to win was if I claimed a PR, and then got the other 2 PRs lynched. Claiming townie would've just gotten me lynched anyway.

For the record, I actually didn't turn in a night action last night. I wasn't lying about that :D
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Post Post #209 (ISO) » Sat Jan 03, 2009 5:49 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Day 2 final vote count


CarnCarn 4 (veerus, TCS, Ripley, ZazieR)[/b]

not voting - CarnCarn, axle135

CarnCarn and Ripley march to the town square with cop hats and start arguing, but the town quickly decides CarnCarn is the way to go. After lynching him to a pulp, you feel it's safe to take off his hat, which reveals a pair of
horns
underneath, indicating he too was a really bad guy. A quick check reveals only nice people remain, and you live happily ever after.

CarnCarn,
SCUM
, lynched day 2


Town wins!
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Post Post #210 (ISO) » Sat Jan 03, 2009 5:50 am

Post by CarnCarn »

Yeah, I was originally going to claim one of Doc/Miller. Miller would probably have gotten me lynched first regardless, and I thought you were the doc because you brought up that point about the doc-protecting last night.
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Post Post #211 (ISO) » Sat Jan 03, 2009 5:53 am

Post by veerus »

CarnCarn wrote:For the record, I actually didn't turn in a night action last night. I wasn't lying about that :D
You should've. As I explained, you had a 50% chance of hitting me and then you would've had the chance to massage the game in your favor. Your weak-reasoned jump on me after TA's weak-reasoned vote gave you away for me.
On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.
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Post Post #212 (ISO) » Sat Jan 03, 2009 5:53 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

CarnCarn wrote:Looking back, ThAd and Kaiveran didn't talk at all before the game, which really hurt us because we didn't figure out what to do about massclaiming. I was trying to subtly explain to ThAd in-thread about what we should do if we claim, but I think if we talked about it beforehand, I would obviously have pushed for massclaim D1. Usually, in an open game, scum need to think and plan out some things, and not doing so hurt us.
Yeah, scum sorta lost this for not caring enough D1, and the competing wagon being on one of the power roles was unlucky. Anyways, good game all, and congratulations for the town on a flawless win.

Did I do alright with modding?
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Post Post #213 (ISO) » Sat Jan 03, 2009 5:54 am

Post by veerus »

Raging Rabbit wrote:Did I do alright with modding?
Yeah.. perhaps a little more presence during D1 with vote counts and prods and whatnot would've sped the game up a bit.
On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.
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Post Post #214 (ISO) » Sat Jan 03, 2009 5:56 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

The votecount was basically the same during all the time the game went inactive, but I guess I could've been firmer with the prodding.
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Post Post #215 (ISO) » Sat Jan 03, 2009 6:07 am

Post by CarnCarn »

veerus wrote:
CarnCarn wrote:For the record, I actually didn't turn in a night action last night. I wasn't lying about that :D
You should've. As I explained, you had a 50% chance of hitting me and then you would've had the chance to massage the game in your favor. Your weak-reasoned jump on me after TA's weak-reasoned vote gave you away for me.
Yeah, I actually meant to turn in an action NKing you, but the thread reopening early told me it wouldn't have mattered anyway.
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Post Post #216 (ISO) » Sat Jan 03, 2009 6:20 am

Post by veerus »

CarnCarn wrote:
veerus wrote:
CarnCarn wrote:For the record, I actually didn't turn in a night action last night. I wasn't lying about that :D
You should've. As I explained, you had a 50% chance of hitting me and then you would've had the chance to massage the game in your favor. Your weak-reasoned jump on me after TA's weak-reasoned vote gave you away for me.
Yeah, I actually meant to turn in an action NKing you, but the thread reopening early told me it wouldn't have mattered anyway.
That probably shouldn't have happened. To me an early thread open means that ALL actions are in.. regardless of being blocked.
On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.
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Post Post #217 (ISO) » Sat Jan 03, 2009 6:33 am

Post by CarnCarn »

I agree with that.
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Post Post #218 (ISO) » Sat Jan 03, 2009 6:59 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

CarnCarn wrote:
veerus wrote:
CarnCarn wrote:For the record, I actually didn't turn in a night action last night. I wasn't lying about that :D
You should've. As I explained, you had a 50% chance of hitting me and then you would've had the chance to massage the game in your favor. Your weak-reasoned jump on me after TA's weak-reasoned vote gave you away for me.
Yeah, I actually meant to turn in an action NKing you, but the thread reopening early told me it wouldn't have mattered anyway.
Huh? Yeah you did, you targeted veerus. I got the PM right in my inbox.
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Post Post #219 (ISO) » Sat Jan 03, 2009 7:36 am

Post by Ripley »

Day 2 I thought it was at least 80% probable that CC was scum but I was troubled by how we'd be left on Day 3 in the event that we lynched him and he was innocent. I was particularly haunted by the idea that TCS had deliberately no-killed, and thought in that case he would probably win unless we claimed. As a cop with an innocent result I knew we would have a 100% win with a mass claim if the scum didn't claim or if they claimed cop. If CC was scum he'd be in a real fix; if he claimed miller he would as he said almost certainly be lynched, a doc claim wouldn't be believable because he hadn't mentioned doc protect, and if he claimed cop he'd lose because I was the cop. I pushed for the claim by group-agreed order because I was sure veerus would insist CC and TCS went first, and I would have tried to make sure ZazieR, the only other possible scum, went ahead of me.

Congrats btw to veerus whose instincts were absolutely right throughout.
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Post Post #220 (ISO) » Sat Jan 03, 2009 7:50 am

Post by CarnCarn »

Raging Rabbit wrote:
CarnCarn wrote:
veerus wrote:
CarnCarn wrote:For the record, I actually didn't turn in a night action last night. I wasn't lying about that :D
You should've. As I explained, you had a 50% chance of hitting me and then you would've had the chance to massage the game in your favor. Your weak-reasoned jump on me after TA's weak-reasoned vote gave you away for me.
Yeah, I actually meant to turn in an action NKing you, but the thread reopening early told me it wouldn't have mattered anyway.
Huh? Yeah you did, you targeted veerus. I got the PM right in my inbox.
:oops: Yeah, I double checked now and I did send it. Hmm, not sure why I thought I didn't. Sorry about that.
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Post Post #221 (ISO) » Sat Jan 03, 2009 7:57 am

Post by CarnCarn »

Ripley wrote:Day 2 I thought it was at least 80% probable that CC was scum but I was troubled by how we'd be left on Day 3 in the event that we lynched him and he was innocent. I was particularly haunted by the idea that TCS had deliberately no-killed, and thought in that case he would probably win unless we claimed. As a cop with an innocent result I knew we would have a 100% win with a mass claim if the scum didn't claim or if they claimed cop. If CC was scum he'd be in a real fix; if he claimed miller he would as he said almost certainly be lynched, a doc claim wouldn't be believable because he hadn't mentioned doc protect, and if he claimed cop he'd lose because I was the cop. I pushed for the claim by group-agreed order because I was sure veerus would insist CC and TCS went first, and I would have tried to make sure ZazieR, the only other possible scum, went ahead of me.

Congrats btw to veerus whose instincts were absolutely right throughout.
Definately. I think my play before ThAd got randomly wagoned was pretty strongly protown. If anyone other than ThAd got lynched D1, our odds of winning are probably really high. But, then again, that's just the nature of this setup, too, starting off at Lylo-1.

I would like to replay this type of small open game in the future (hopefully with good activity).
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Post Post #222 (ISO) » Sat Jan 03, 2009 9:03 am

Post by veerus »

mod: what would've happened if we deadlined with 3 votes on me and TA?


To answer my own question I'm assuming TA would've gotten lynched since he reached 3 votes first, unless you would've enforced a no-lynch... Either way, CC shoulda probably stuck to his guns and not hammered.

In such a small game, 2 scum on one wagon = deadly. I'm still not sure why Ripley kept his *random* vote on me the entire day 1 especially after TA started making mountains out of mole hills.
Ripley wrote:I pushed for the claim by group-agreed order because I was sure veerus would insist CC and TCS went first, and I would have tried to make sure ZazieR, the only other possible scum, went ahead of me.
Good call.. I would've picked one of those two. While I didn't consider your scenario, I don't think it would've mattered. A mass claim with 1 scum left would've either identified both PR's, or gave us an automatic win with scum claiming PR giving us a sure D3 win.
On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.
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Post Post #223 (ISO) » Sat Jan 03, 2009 9:44 am

Post by Ripley »

I'm still not sure why Ripley kept his *random* vote on me the entire day 1 especially after TA started making mountains out of mole hills.
It was an originally random vote that got converted to a serious vote - not so unusual in a game of this size. I thought that was clear from my posting, sorry if it wasn't. No way would I have left a purely random vote in place approaching deadline.
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Post Post #224 (ISO) » Sat Jan 03, 2009 9:58 am

Post by veerus »

It wasn't not obvious, I just never felt you really had a solid case on me to justify the vote, especially after I was at L-1 with a super weak case from TA/CC on me.. /shrug
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