Large Normal 251 - Postgame

[Alianna]

4.05

Votecount 4.05

TheHoldSteady (2): BridgesAndBaloons, GreedyBanger [E-2]
Extasly (1): Semtia
Esfera (1): RCEnigma

Not Voting (3): Esfera, TheHoldSteady, Extasly

With 7 players alive, it takes 4 votes to secure an execution.

The day deadline is in (expired on 2024-11-16 23:40:24).

Mod Notes

Semtia is V/LA this week.

[TheHoldSteady]

4.05

Votecount 4.05

TheHoldSteady (2): BridgesAndBaloons, GreedyBanger [E-2]
Extasly (1): Semtia
Esfera (1): RCEnigma

Not Voting (3): Esfera, TheHoldSteady, Extasly

With 7 players alive, it takes 4 votes to secure an execution.

The day deadline is in (expired on 2024-11-16 23:40:24).

I declare V/LA until Thursday

(tomorrow I want to focus on my last day with my family and then I travel home)

[Alianna]

4.05

Votecount 4.05

TheHoldSteady (2): BridgesAndBaloons, GreedyBanger [E-2]
Extasly (1): Semtia
Esfera (1): RCEnigma

Not Voting (3): Esfera, TheHoldSteady, Extasly

With 7 players alive, it takes 4 votes to secure an execution.

The day deadline is in (expired on 2024-11-16 23:40:24).

I declare V/LA until Thursday

(tomorrow I want to focus on my last day with my family and then I travel home)

Noted.

[Semtia]

Looking at Steady's day 2 I just don't see how anyone can see posts like 437 and 564 and think he's strongly paired with Querty. Going back to Baloon's 8 reasons to kill THS the only one that is still meaningful to me is #7.

Steady comes off as town to me and knowing Hu Tao didn't see him visit anyone N2 gives him a ~1/3 multiplier to his scum equity. Even if you still think Steady is scum we should wait to kill him out of respect for Hu Tao's check.

[Esfera]

My WiM is kind of dead due to some other stuff going on in my life.

I would vote in RCE/Greedy/Extasly/THS here. As in, anyone who isn't my top two town.

THS's frustration looked towny on a surface level, but I don't like rewarding AtE plays.

GtH Greedy is who I would vote, because I originally had spew reasons for RCE, and Extasly is townier from what I remember of Extasly's iso.

Unless I'm misclearing, Greedy would be partnered with one of Extasly/RCE.

[Extasly]

honestly i think i need a flip to get the gears turning again in my head

[BridgesAndBaloons]

3.03

Votecount 3.03

Firestarter (3): GreedyBanger, Extasly, TheHoldSteady [E-2]
Semtia (1): Hu Tao
Extasly (1): Firestarter
mirrored (1): Semtia

Not Voting (3): BridgesAndBaloons, mirrored, RCEnigma

With 9 players alive, it takes 5 votes to secure an execution.

The day deadline is in (expired on 2024-11-08 20:21:11).

I'm down for a firestarter lim then. I got nervous before because of how quickly he got to E-1 before I unvoted but looking at the 4 votes they only one who I don't strongly townread is Extasly. Not gonna vote him yet cause I'm still annoyed at Hu Tao for not full claiming.

note: compare this to Semtia's thoughts on THS wagon. Same people expressing willingness to vote on THS today and yet Semtia is not willing to join this wagon.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

If it's not clear by my note, I've been entertaining the idea that actually

semtia

is scum and THS is town.

I am convinced they are not both scum.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

basically I'm uber paranoid at this point.

[Semtia]

note: compare this to Semtia's thoughts on THS wagon. Same people expressing willingness to vote on THS today and yet Semtia is not willing to join this wagon.

I now scumread Extasly and I thought GreedyBanger was PR cleared at the time.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

Ex flipping scum would likely clear Semtia for me. Reason is that Semtia's case on Ex and vote seems compelling and a totally uncessary bus at the game state when it was made.
THS flipping scum would definitely clear Semtia for me. I have enumerated several times why I don't think THS and Semtia can both be scum.
Semtia flipping scum would definitely clear THS for me. I have enumerated several times why I don't think THS and Semtia can both be scum.

what about town flips? Hm, I don't know if I can get any confirms from townflips of those three.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

note: compare this to Semtia's thoughts on THS wagon. Same people expressing willingness to vote on THS today and yet Semtia is not willing to join this wagon.

I now scumread Extasly and I thought GreedyBanger was PR cleared at the time.

oh you're right. I wasn't taking into account that you scumread Ex NOW. I didn't account for your opinions changing. I also didn't realize you currently no longer town-read Greedy. I forgot about that but now I remember you literally wrote a case on Greedy. in your Ex vote post.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

Ex flipping scum would likely clear Semtia for me. Reason is that Semtia's case on Ex and vote seems compelling and a totally uncessary bus at the game state when it was made.
THS flipping scum would definitely clear Semtia for me. I have enumerated several times why I don't think THS and Semtia can both be scum.
Semtia flipping scum would definitely clear THS for me. I have enumerated several times why I don't think THS and Semtia can both be scum.

what about town flips? Hm, I don't know if I can get any confirms from townflips of those three.

Hm this means that Semtia would have to be partnered with RCE, Esfera, Greedy.

So if I look into those pairings if they make sense and if none of them make sense, I might be able to clear Semtia via logical deductions. Although if one of them makes sense that doesn't help clear.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

semtia and esfera are totally possible pairs. I didn't get the huge emotional outburst to mirrored's case on semtia, and it could be scum theater. In addition, Semtia places votes on esfera ONLY when there is a lot of momentum elsewhere. Never seemed to genuinely drive at a lim. Pretty classic distancing scum.

RCE and Semtia on the otherhand look like possible, but the pushing feels genuine.

I also need to look the other way.

Hm...

I'm not able to clear Semtia, but based on my reads of other people, I think it's pretty likely Semtia is town.

I think I need to make some solid claim just to help me leap forward to figure out what to do today.

I don't want to lim semtia today.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

and I think Greedy is town.

so

Extasly
RCEnigma
TheHoldSteady
Esfera

are who I would consider voting for now. (list is not ordered, this is just copied from the player list order),
I'm on THS now, but I've gotten really self-doubty lately.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

My contribution is that we just kill;
RCEnigma
Firestarter
Hu Tao
Querty
Trace0n
and we just win. You're welcome.

This post is amusing to me considered RCE is the only person alive from that.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

VOTE: Firestarter

honestly think we should power through and lim hu's claim but i guess that's gonna have to be for later

Ex's next post:

VOTE: Enchant

context: enchant has 4 votes, with significant momentum after my big case on them.

Reading through Ex's iso. I found pretty much no scum-hunting to be aware of.


I don't like Ex's play with HT, seemingly pushing for her lim as much as possible. And only seems to change her oppinion when game sentiment makes it clear there's no HT lim.

[GreedyBanger]

UNVOTE:

Happy to let bab cook

[BridgesAndBaloons]

I'm not having the energy to put in as polished posts as normal.

Ex and Querty/Enchant are definitely partnerable. Very little mentions of each other. Very few alignment reads. Most notable is Querty calling Ex town.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

UNVOTE:

Happy to let bab cook

I can't keep track of everyone's reads.
You town read Ex, right? If so, what am I missing with having her in my lim pool? If not, uh, no further questions.

[GreedyBanger]

It's pretty much the reaction against THS day 3. I don't think scum ex is quite that demonstrative

[BridgesAndBaloons]

It's pretty much the reaction against THS day 3. I don't think scum ex is quite that demonstrative

Thank you.

That kinda feels like a day 1 read in that it’s largely vibe based. At first I read ex’s day - “are you even having fun” as a vibe-based town read.

At the current state of game and giving ex’s voting patterns and general “scum-hunting” I’m less inclined to give those vibe based feelings much importance.

Of course I say this all with my read on you being kinda vibe based.

[GreedyBanger]

Yeah this is a really analytical player group that's left and I dont really play like that. I appreciate being able to look over a well thought out case and it does help me but i dont think I can provide the same. If I'm right on both of you THS like has to be scum right because mafia are just slow burning the lim of THS here why?

[BridgesAndBaloons]

Yeah this is a really analytical player group that's left and I dont really play like that. I appreciate being able to look over a well thought out case and it does help me but i dont think I can provide the same. If I'm right on both of you THS like has to be scum right because mafia are just slow burning the lim of THS here why?

okay, alive we have:

Extasly
BridgesAndBaloons
RCEnigma
TheHoldSteady
Esfera
Semtia
GreedyBanger

from your perspective (where you see yourself as town), If you're right on both Ex and I being town that leaves:

RCEnigma
TheHoldSteady
Esfera
Semtia

as possible scum.

if THS is town:
- RCEnigma as scum doesn't make as much sense here not pushing the THS lim. They have had opportunities to do so and have decided not to.
- Semtia as scum badly wants to keep THS alive. This is because THS is like never going to vote Semtia after sticking his neck out so far to save Semtia. This could explain the "slow burn."
- Esfera as scum is just entering the game, publishing reads. Seems like the type of player to do some deep analysis, and would be far out of meta to vote quickly, so either way that could explain the "slow burn"

So essentially, from your perspective, if THS is town, both Semtia and Esfera are scum.

But I think it's helpful to widen that perspective because if Ex is scum, then we get more reasons for the "slow roll" -- a scum is already on the wagon. The partners that make sense to me here would be Ex/Semtia, Ex/Esfera, Semtia/Esfera.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

Greedy I feel like these are the likely worlds in the state of both you and I being town:

THS/RCE
THS/Esfera
THS/Ex
Semtia/Esfera
Semtia/Ex
Ex/Esfera

If I follow my own gut read on Esfera that narrows it down even further.

THS/RCE
THS/Ex
Semtia/Ex

Although honestly I don't know if I should be eliminating Esfera as the slot as scum does fit well with numerous possibilities. So uh, if anyone is re-reading this after I die, take that with a grain of salt.

But anyway I'm surprising myself and leaning towards Ex now. Almost for logistical reasons.

My thoughts are that if Ex flips town, I become very confident that THS/ RCE is the scum team. If Ex flips red, then one of THS/Semtia/Esfera are scum. But we will get two shots to figure out who the last partner is and imagine that won't be my problem anymore.