Newbie 2139 | 'Tis the Season | Postgame

[Outremer]

I agree scum has more reason to crumb, so I don't think it proves real claim at all. I do however think TLM is town in how the game played out so far. Also agree that RC, while not confirmed, doesn't necessarily mean partnered with TLM if TLM is scum though.

Therefore I'm willing to elim today:

- TLM/THS - we get the night action sorted out and there is 100% 1 scum in here. There is a universe somewhere out there that they are a pair (as SC said) but this isn't that universe.

- NT - I'm hesitant to delay NT issue yet again. I need to map out some scenarios where what happens if we lose the above 50/50 but at surface thinking, it seems NT elim is optimal here. It's like killing 2 birds with 1 stone.

Mechanics aside and going off my deduction and scum hunting:

TLM

THS

NT

VOTE: Nettletail

Will join if votes are needed and majority wants to go THS/TLM

[Nettletail]

basically for thse who are unintrested with autonomous thought, tlm's posts reek with agenda.

[THE LARGE MAN]

and of course, lets quickly ignore the fact that TLM's whole worldview fails to even account for the fact that I would be pocketing gmo in that scenario (hence making him more valuable to keep alive) and that gmo was defending me. Killing him would put me in more danger. But wait! Thats what tlm wanted! So he could burst into today, pushig both me and the one person who role copped me (who he likely tracked or rced) conveniently under the guise of a redcheck! Its so brilliant, he planned it out in ciphers before it happened! And wait, he even made sure to push both me and holdsteady ON THE SAME POST SO HE KNEW THAT ONE OF US COULDN'T DEFEND THE OTHER! WOW! SO SMART!

he rolecopped me. you need to coordinate better in scum chat

[Nettletail]

I agree scum has more reason to crumb, so I don't think it proves real claim at all. I do however think TLM is town in how the game played out so far. Also agree that RC, while not confirmed, doesn't necessarily mean partnered with TLM if TLM is scum though.

Therefore I'm willing to elim today:

- TLM/THS - we get the night action sorted out and there is 100% 1 scum in here. There is a universe somewhere out there that they are a pair (as SC said) but this isn't that universe.

- NT - I'm hesitant to delay NT issue yet again. I need to map out some scenarios where what happens if we lose the above 50/50 but at surface thinking, it seems NT elim is optimal here. It's like killing 2 birds with 1 stone.

Mechanics aside and going off my deduction and scum hunting:

TLM

THS

NT

VOTE: Nettletail

Will join if votes are needed and majority wants to go THS/TLM

the thing is, we can't just decide "hey mechanics are pointing to this dude being a wolf but imma ignore that because its convenient for me"
you are saturated with confirmation bias, outremer, and you shoud really try to hold everything withequaly weighted regard

in some ways, being able to weight reads properly is a core skill in mafia

[Nettletail]

and of course, lets quickly ignore the fact that TLM's whole worldview fails to even account for the fact that I would be pocketing gmo in that scenario (hence making him more valuable to keep alive) and that gmo was defending me. Killing him would put me in more danger. But wait! Thats what tlm wanted! So he could burst into today, pushig both me and the one person who role copped me (who he likely tracked or rced) conveniently under the guise of a redcheck! Its so brilliant, he planned it out in ciphers before it happened! And wait, he even made sure to push both me and holdsteady ON THE SAME POST SO HE KNEW THAT ONE OF US COULDN'T DEFEND THE OTHER! WOW! SO SMART!

he rolecopped me. you need to coordinate better in scum chat

wait hold up wait
i need to rethink
90% sure this might actually pinpoint THS as scum now that I think about it

[THE LARGE MAN]

@outremer i prefer ths. there's still a tiny chance nettletail is town and if so tomorrow becomes a 50/50. there is one scum guaranteed in me and ths so this should be resolved first.

[Nettletail]

mmm but my point about game balance still applies
what's your FULL role TLM
INCLUDING MODIFIERS

[THE LARGE MAN]

town tracker

[Nettletail]

if he rolecopped you as tracker as a 1 shot cop why didn't he out his check immediately because of claimspace lol
very sus now that i think of it
why did he claim afer being scanned hmmm
still disappoints me because night actions still get fucked over by rb

[Nettletail]

town tracker

and just to make sure I have the facts in order, you claimed you saw the hold steady visit whom?

[Nettletail]

whats vote count like, anyone know
UNVOTE:
chat i think i mightve been wrong

[Nettletail]

kinda cringe lmao but idk perserverence or something

[Outremer]

I agree scum has more reason to crumb, so I don't think it proves real claim at all. I do however think TLM is town in how the game played out so far. Also agree that RC, while not confirmed, doesn't necessarily mean partnered with TLM if TLM is scum though.

Therefore I'm willing to elim today:

- TLM/THS - we get the night action sorted out and there is 100% 1 scum in here. There is a universe somewhere out there that they are a pair (as SC said) but this isn't that universe.

- NT - I'm hesitant to delay NT issue yet again. I need to map out some scenarios where what happens if we lose the above 50/50 but at surface thinking, it seems NT elim is optimal here. It's like killing 2 birds with 1 stone.

Mechanics aside and going off my deduction and scum hunting:

TLM

THS

NT

VOTE: Nettletail

Will join if votes are needed and majority wants to go THS/TLM

the thing is, we can't just decide "hey mechanics are pointing to this dude being a wolf but imma ignore that because its convenient for me"
you are saturated with confirmation bias, outremer, and you shoud really try to hold everything withequaly weighted regard

in some ways, being able to weight reads properly is a core skill in mafia

I'd rather get the questionable things sorted. There's 100% guarantee because of mechanics, but it's still a 50/50 from my POV. Your elim will not only help the coin toss but prevent you escaping yet another day. You're arguing there's a roleblock/jailkeeper. So your intention is never to use PR lol. End game I'd rather have the 100% guarantee, and sort the not so guaranteed issues out earlier when there's still time. Whether it's called confirmation bias or whatever, day 1 was supposed to be sorted but we lost Mewtaph for literally no reason (besides 229 which all he did was call your reaction to pressure not good).

[Nettletail]

eh ill sleep for a bit and then go think again
kinda cringe mistake tbh but glad i stopped there
condolences to you, The Large Man

[Nettletail]

tbw outremer

if scum rb/jk flips today I should be able to be confirmed + there might be another sneaky way with rb or jk but I can't say it because it relies on suboptimal wolf actions
so probably best to try to find that instead
i have notes on wolf role formation I'll post them tomorrow

[Nettletail]

but basicaly mafia always need a way of disrupting those who caim to prevent a massclaim from tearing the game into two

[Outremer]

@outremer i prefer ths. there's still a tiny chance nettletail is town and if so tomorrow becomes a 50/50. there is one scum guaranteed in me and ths so this should be resolved first.

Yeah this is logical, if I'm wrong and NT is town we'll be 50/50 in end game and that is way worse actually.

VOTE: The Hold Steady

-1 again.

[Outremer]

tbw outremer

if scum rb/jk flips today I should be able to be confirmed + there might be another sneaky way with rb or jk but I can't say it because it relies on suboptimal wolf actions
so probably best to try to find that instead
i have notes on wolf role formation I'll post them tomorrow

Thinking about it, TLM claims THS targeted TWO PLAYERS. So if THS is scum THS would be the roleblocker/jailkeeper, so you can't get blocked tomorrow.

[RCEnigma]

UNVOTE: The Hold Steady
Sorry wrong unvote, was rushing because it's -1 lol.

Anyway after reading again:

RC is confirmed is not actually true. If we TLM is scum, we have to elim RC next. The key QUESTION here is "why would scum TLM do that to their partner" and the answer is because they're banking on the fact that we would ask that question and lim elsewhere. The only reason we can ask that question in the first place is because the correct play would be to elim RC, so that is what we do if TLM is scum.

So how I see it:

TLM + RC

vs

THS + NT

Fair, I missed ths claiming they rolecopped tlm I thought they rolecopped me. Which begs the question why they thought to sit on the info if they know nettle softed, gmo flipped pr, AND they rolecopped yet another PR.

[RCEnigma]

tbw outremer

if scum rb/jk flips today I should be able to be confirmed + there might be another sneaky way with rb or jk but I can't say it because it relies on suboptimal wolf actions
so probably best to try to find that instead
i have notes on wolf role formation I'll post them tomorrow

Thinking about it, TLM claims THS targeted TWO PLAYERS. So if THS is scum THS would be the roleblocker/jailkeeper, so you can't get blocked tomorrow.

No, they can still be trueclaiming rolecop, that was my first thought when TLM claimed they visited twice.

[THE LARGE MAN]

also nettletail, maybe you already know this but in the case where you are not scum, you should choose someone outside of me and rc to target (and maybe claim beforehand who you are targeting? im not sure about this though). this guarantees we have 2 mech confirmed town alive tomorrow.

im ignoring possibility of rb after ths flips cause i have a really hard time imagining two scum prs existing. i think if nettletail claims rbed tomorrow that should be the lim. worst worst case scenario we have a 3 player elo which we hopefully win, but im assuming im dying tonight so thats not my problem to worry about

[RCEnigma]

Don’t have to claim which one beforehand but if THS flips red. Target one of burrito/outremer.

[Nettletail]

if exactly anyone but the rb/interference flips today, I will be roleblocked likely
which is unfortunate

but whatever
not much I can do there

i think ths is not lying about their role (see: normal 2-smth) and they are a 1-shot role cop, likely meaning other scum is a full pr.
but yeah

[Nettletail]

also if ths flips scum 1 shot role cop, you should automatically assume there's another pr. By virtue of balance.

[TheHoldSteady]

I agree scum has more reason to crumb, so I don't think it proves real claim at all. I do however think TLM is town in how the game played out so far. Also agree that RC, while not confirmed, doesn't necessarily mean partnered with TLM if TLM is scum though.

Therefore I'm willing to elim today:

- TLM/THS - we get the night action sorted out and there is 100% 1 scum in here. There is a universe somewhere out there that they are a pair (as SC said) but this isn't that universe.

- NT - I'm hesitant to delay NT issue yet again. I need to map out some scenarios where what happens if we lose the above 50/50 but at surface thinking, it seems NT elim is optimal here. It's like killing 2 birds with 1 stone.

Mechanics aside and going off my deduction and scum hunting:

TLM

THS

NT

VOTE: Nettletail

Will join if votes are needed and majority wants to go THS/TLM

hahahaha no we're not limming nettletail. 0% chance. novice town-friendly neighbor is unfathomably stupid to fakeclaim as scum and you already know this, stop playing dumb and waste the mislim on me or lim TLM