while reading dann's iso for the day again and seeing his read and vote movements, i think the swings in opinion are a lot broader than i would expect from town!dann here
even if he's in "im not sure of anything" mode i think there's still a few stronger beliefs that he tends to revisit or cling to and it's difficult for me to fully track the evolution of thought process and read progressions
he started the day with a fairly solid base to work from, with
1857 feeling fairly confident in his placement of cakez and the worst at the bottom. this is pretty much textbook for a dann/tw team to enter the day with wanting to almost-but-not-quite solve the game, plan to elim sircakez, let the worst convince you of his towniness through innate charisma and presence, let him escape, and then just power through the final day
this all feels fine so far, it makes perfect sense for a scum!dann, but it also is a reasonable progression and state of reads for town!dann, so there's nothing really AI to take away from it
what's strange to me is the way that solid base of reads seems to destabilize over time, and im not really fully sure i can follow why that would be happening for town!dann?
especially the sudden pivot to ari in
1977 feels unsupported, and it's especially kinda jarring because it is like... again exactly what scum!dann would need to do if he is suddenly worried about me pushing him/tw
later he seems to lose conviction in his reads, after being pushed a bit, but i'm not really sure why that reaction comes out. i don't know. i do tend to also start off more confident and gradually lose that confidence over the course of the day. but it's still hard for me to track the progression from start of day to ending up at
2048, when i don't think there's really been that much that would have happened to erode his confidence in his reads. the deflatedness though does feel like it would make sense coming from scum who is suddenly being pushed, and i have seen that kind of energy before from scum!dann
i dunno i feel like i am biased and am reading everything as scum but the sudden reconsideration of hellbooks and later of gamma feel out of place to me. i know that displaying doubt and indecision and vote shifting to try to indicate underlying thought process is something scum!dann likes to lean on, and this just feels more like that than something motivated by actual thinking about the game
i think for starting out with the worst as one of his strongest suspects there's a lack of actual mental engagement with the read for him to now be mostly allying himself with tw and voting alongside him and not really checking himself much on that aside from
2312/
2317
like there's not really the same type of approach that he has to me, where he has his suspicions but then is like "no, the reasons to townread are stronger, here's why". it feels like the read change is mostly coming from the "won over by presence and charisma" which he even telegraphs by saying worst is "mind controlling" him in
2048. but it feels i guess more like he's going through the motions of allowing that to happen rather than me actually seeing that development show up in his posts on a deeper level. which makes it feel more like a planned trajectory change than something that is naturally evolving
i guess this is maybe the part where nsg would say "but if they were partners there would be more theatre to be going out of their way to make sure that read change and progression is visible". which. yeah i guess i would expect that. ideally, that would probably be the optimal play. maybe that is slight evidence for town? i don't feel super great about taking it that way though
part of me feels like i am being ungenerous here and there is a plausible town explanation for the read shifts. it's just hard for me to see that underlying thought progression behind the shifts, and in combination with it feeling like it does very specifically align with what would benefit scum!dann, that feels more likely to be what i'm seeing here
