Mini 2362 - DK64 CYS Randomizer Smalltown - Night 3

[sloththeholy]

Bloop

[Reisen Udongein Inaba]

Are we going to have to wait on a replacement for GiF now.

[sloththeholy]

Maybe that person will actually play and post

[Hiraki]

I just don't want to waste a day on a slot if nothing happens. numen is bad but GiF is really not that far behind at this point

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Seeking replacement for GIF

[Lady Lambdadelta]

The game timer Will be paused while I conduct this search.

[Reisen Udongein Inaba]

I will be prodging until further notice.

[numen]

i guess we'll just wait for whoever replaces gif now.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Ydrasse replaces GuyInFreezer

[Ydrasse]

hello i town

what's up

[Ydrasse]

i have been vaguely spectating this enough to know there was a role shuffle at some point after shenanigans but i have 0 takes atm and no idea what's left to work with

[Ydrasse]

quick skimmed the last 7 pages, yeah numen can die

also gif drafted town -> 3p -> wolf both times

[Ydrasse]

and was town b4

[Scorpious]

Ydra!

[Ydrasse]

hello o/

[sloththeholy]

Hello Ydrasse!!

Numen probably is the right play today that or RUI

[Dunnstral]

I believe we are ready to end the day.

[Ydrasse]

ill hammer in a few hours tbh

[Dunnstral]

Dunnstral:
Draft 1: Town -> 3p -> Mafia
Draft 2: Town -> 3p -> Mafia

sloththeholy:
Draft 1: Town -> 3p -> Mafia
Draft 2: Town -> 3p -> Mafia

GuyInFreezer:
Draft 1: Town -> 3p -> Mafia
Draft 2: Town -> 3p -> Mafia

Tangion:
Draft 1: 3p -> ? (Not important, them being 3p now is believable)
Draft 2: 3p -> Mafia -> Town

Hiraki:
Draft 1: Town -> 3p -> Mafia
Draft 2: Town -> 3p -> Mafia

Scorpious:
Draft 1: 3p -> Mafia -> Town
Draft 2: 3p -> Town -> Mafia

Reisen Udongein Inaba:
Draft 1: Was a different player so not relevant (was town)
Draft 2: Town -> 3p -> Mafia

numen:
Draft 1: 3p -> Mafia -> Town
Draft 2: Town -> ?

hebichan:
Draft 1: Mafia -> 3p ->Town
Draft 2: 3p -> Town -> Mafia

[Dunnstral]

During Draft 1 Scorpious became mafia while putting 3p as first pick. This is consistent with having a lot of other players placing mafia as third pick. They had the same picks as numen and lost the coin flip.

Scorpious putting 3p during draft 2 but not getting it confirms that at least two other people put 3p first. That would be Tangion and hebichan.

C-Worl likely had mafia as their first pick.

Cabd did Town -> Mafia -> 3p. It's likely that because there were too many 3p picks, Cabd was not in consideration to become mafia.

Save The Dragons must have either had town first, or 3p first and town second.

My conclusion from this is that people are likely to be telling the truth about their draft 1 selections. There are some blind spots; for instance, GuyInFreezer could have selected mafia second instead of third during both drafts and we wouldn't have a way to know (and as I mention above, there were likely too many 3p picks so the third mafia would be between Scorpious and numen).

[Dunnstral]

I do believe numen seems the most suspicious. As I mentioned before when I voted for them, players who initially put down town as their first choice probably have resistance to picking Mafia first this time around, especially since the mafia's position is slightly worse than the start of the game. The drafted roles could influence this somewhat, and I have not put thought into that.

Likewise, players who put town last are not likely to suddenly put town first. Of those, we know that hebichan is 3p right now, and Scorpious put town second (trying to become 3p both times).

Reisen Udongein Inaba is a special case because of the timing of the replacement. They only drafted the second time, the person who drafted the first time was a different person. Thus, we cannot read into it. What we can read into is their play during this day phase; which to me seems like they are not on a mafia team with numen.

If

numen is mafia, I'm not sure who the second would be right now.

[Ydrasse]

VOTE: numen

yolo

[Tangion]

finally stuff happened!

Hi Ydrasse!

[Ydrasse]

o/////

[hebichan]

o/////

Hi new person. Night new person

VOTE: numen