Mini Normal 2377 - Endgame

[Black]

black should be hanging that one on the wall.

I'm very proud of it. Sloppy game by me overall, as usual. But I will never forget post 8

[Hiraki]

no worries - thank you for pointing 4288 out

[implosion]

It's a mason tell if you assume that a mason would never throw a mason buddy in the list to throw people off of that. And if we make that assumption we can actually quantify exactly how much it is a mason tell!

There are 10 choose 3 = 120 possible scumteams from mason POV, and 12 choose 3 = 220 from a VT's POV. So a mason is just shy of twice as likely to randomly guess the scumteam under this assumption. Which by Bayes' theorem means, if M is the probability that that player is a mason and X is the probability that they would correctly guess the scumteam,

P(M | X) / P(M) = P(X | M) / (P(X | M) * P(M) + P(X | -M) * P(-M))
Say for simplicity that scum know a priori there are 3 masons, so P(M) = 0.25. Then this becomes
(1 / 120) / ((1 / 120) * 0.25 + (1 / 220) * 0.75)

which is very close to 1.5.

The expression P(M | X) / P(M) represents the ratio between the likelihood someone is a mason after calling the scumteam (under the assumption that masons never WIFOM), divided by the baseline probability of them being a mason. In other words, if someone calls the scumteam, that makes them roughly 1.5 times likelier to be a mason under these assumptions.

[implosion]

The reason it's only 1.5x in a nutshell is that yes, it's a very low-likelihood event to call the scumteam page 1 from a VT perspective, and it's

still

very low-likelihood from a mason perspective. The difference between the two is significant (1.5x is quite significant! And the base odds of the mason calling the team are closer to 2x likelier) but not dramatic.

[Hoopla]

fun trivia!

i was hoping for a post like that from implosion.

[Hu Tao]

It's a mason tell if you assume that a mason would never throw a mason buddy in the list to throw people off of that. And if we make that assumption we can actually quantify exactly how much it is a mason tell!

There are 10 choose 3 = 120 possible scumteams from mason POV, and 12 choose 3 = 220 from a VT's POV. So a mason is just shy of twice as likely to randomly guess the scumteam under this assumption. Which by Bayes' theorem means, if M is the probability that that player is a mason and X is the probability that they would correctly guess the scumteam,

P(M | X) / P(M) = P(X | M) / (P(X | M) * P(M) + P(X | -M) * P(-M))
Say for simplicity that scum know a priori there are 3 masons, so P(M) = 0.25. Then this becomes
(1 / 120) / ((1 / 120) * 0.25 + (1 / 220) * 0.75)

which is very close to 1.5.

The expression P(M | X) / P(M) represents the ratio between the likelihood someone is a mason after calling the scumteam (under the assumption that masons never WIFOM), divided by the baseline probability of them being a mason. In other words, if someone calls the scumteam, that makes them roughly 1.5 times likelier to be a mason under these assumptions.

I was told there would be no math

[Hu Tao]

Also I was overly annoying this game. Sorry everyone. Ill do better with that going forward

[Black]

Also I was overly annoying this game. Sorry everyone. Ill do better with that going forward

I was annoying too. My apologies as well. I just get emotional sometimes and I don't know how to keep it from bleeding into the game

[geraintm]

sorry, felt i was exceptionally poor this game. i wasn't able to help either of my team mates when they came under trouble, i wasn't good enough to change the narrative at all and got trapped mid game as scum as per usual. some town really got me too. well played town

[Not Known 15]

Links:
Mafia:viewtopic.php?t=94764
Mason:viewtopic.php?t=94765
Dead:viewtopic.php?t=94766
Mafia Dead:viewtopic.php?t=94808
Notes PTs(not to be mentioned in main thread):viewtopic.php?t=94788


On my performance:
My votecounts weren't good(I made several mistakes); and I think the game could have benefitted from more than 2 vote counts a day.
Also, several rules violations made me really stressed.

On the game balance:
I don't think it was actually balanced. I will report this back to Ircher, but basically: Hidden Masons 3x are more powerful because it can really limit the mafia fakeclaim abilities and causes even normal fakeclaims to be instantly very suspicious. Also, Masons do not need to act like 2x masons - they can still confirm themselves at 2 masons. I think this setup minus the Vanilla Cop would be more balanced.
On the normalcry of Vanilla Cop with bad hits - that's kind of normal for Vanilla Cop, and something someone can be expected to figure out(that not all PR's are bad, and should be outed).

[Lily Milk]

gg town! nominating 8 for a scummy if it hasn't been done already.

[Naerys]

gg town! nominating 8 for a scummy if it hasn't been done already.

it wasnt and ye you should, Black deserves that

[Black]

By the way, if you think ANYTHING from this game might be worthy of an award, check out the Scummies Nominations Thread and nominate your favorite moment/player/team/mod/flavor/and more!