Newbie 2157: Crabs | Night 1

[Dannflor]

Both scum are in: buck qp dann and bingle.

It seems to me this would be a very easy position for a wolf to take, at this point in the game.

I thought Hu Tao’s posts in ISO contained not much of use. A lot of fluff, and a series of reads without any explanation.

@Dann: why are you town-reading Hu Tao?

I don't have a great reason. I was fibbing a little with the confidence in my reads in an attempt to get certain reactions from Bingle. I'll say I don't necessarily have problems with the things you have problems with. Fluff and reads without explanations are not out of character for Hu Tao as either alignment.

[Jobby2]

I think your interactions are quite heavyweight in comparison to anything else I've seen and I'm believing less and less that its town vs town.

I need this expounded upon. Why does the heavyweight-edness of our interactions lend the situation more towards one of us being scum? What would look different if we were town versus town in your mind?

The heavyweighted nature of your interactions were not an indication of alignment, just that they were notable and provide more solid evidence than anything else posted so far. The pressure was high, the suppositions firm. It's a good question of what town vs town looks like. I think actually it is much more of a back and forth until a conclusion is reached. I don't feel one *was* reached. I've gone for bingle because he retreated from the fight, but you shouldn't take that to mean I have neccesarily townread you. You could quite plausibly be positioning as chief inquisitor and hoping to overwhelm the town.

[Dannflor]

His subsequent freezing wrt scum reads and retreating from engaging you made me question why? It feels a little weak to just be "to prevent others from engaging" (I am not using specific words bingle used, but the intent I perceived from the post).

I was in the middle of posting when you posted. So what sort of tells were you expecting that you didn't get? Is bingle capable of hiding such tells from you?

There are two possible motivations for disengaging with me.

1. It's a bad situation for him to be in as scum and he needs to reposition.
2. He recognizes it as a bad situation for town and he wants to break the cycle.

My impression of his more recent posts are that his want to sort outside of me and his wavering confidence in his scum read on me are borne out of a genuine worry that this is a TvT, not an attempt to salvage his own position. This could be incorrect, but it's currently the way I'm trending.

I'll refrain from answering the latter questions, thank you.

[Dannflor]

I've gone for bingle because he retreated from the fight, but you shouldn't take that to mean I have neccesarily townread you. You could quite plausibly be positioning as chief inquisitor and hoping to overwhelm the town.

then do you not really have an opinion on which of us is more likely to be town?

can I get a summary of where you're at with regards to reads? anyone you are more firmly town reading?

[ForeverBuckAndMe]

I'm here!

[ForeverBuckAndMe]

Hu Tao, why do think both scum are in that group?

[Dannflor]

Hu Tao, why do think both scum are in that group?

Are you caught up?

[Jobby2]

I've gone for bingle because he retreated from the fight, but you shouldn't take that to mean I have neccesarily townread you. You could quite plausibly be positioning as chief inquisitor and hoping to overwhelm the town.

then do you not really have an opinion on which of us is more likely to be town?

can I get a summary of where you're at with regards to reads? anyone you are more firmly town reading?

I'll have to sit on it more, especially with you not now being confident that bingle is scum. I'd have it currently as 55-45 towards bingle. Prior to your responses, probably 65-35 bingle.

In both games i've played now, the problem I seem to have is I only see scummy behaviour. I haven't yet developed a way to see something as town which isn't just speculation fundamentally. I find it easier to see scum behaviour.

Blendin and you are probably less scummy, as the pieces of evidence I believe to have seen haven't really stood up to scrutiny.

Hu Tao I can't get much of a read on because she seems to be picking things up very quickly and has made decisions.

Jack and Max are engaging and asking good questions from what I remember but would want to iso later to confirm that.

Bingle is the player I'm left with as the most scummy.

Oh and of course qp and FB I can't really judge yet. FB's only post prior to me starting this post was certainly an aggressive one. Reasonable for the stage of the game perhaps, but one that needs more posts to contextualise.

[Dannflor]

This day probably ends in an FB&M elimination unless something with that slot changes, I'll be honest.


And thank you for your 257, Jobby, that helps a lot.

[Hu Tao]

Hu Tao, why do think both scum are in that group?

Cause everyone else is towny

[Hu Tao]

Doctor should be on jobby. He's so towny

[Bingle]

Any interest in litigating your j4ck read? I'm not seeing much but I remember him being a bit of a limbait slot so an early townread is kinda spicy.

Clarification question. What is a "limbait slot", and are you talking about his slot in this game?

To be clear, this is an impression, not any specific instance I can recall, but I feel like I’ve seen j4ck be the target of shitpushes by scum and an early elimination frequently. I don’t think I’ve played (much? At all?) with him, just based on observation of games I’ve spectated or reviewed.

I don’t think that is the case here, as no one is really pushing him, but I do think that overall he is a tempting target for a mislim when he is town.

[Bingle]

To be specific, can you be more precise as to what dann is specifically misunderstanding and how that logically leads to him being wrong?

I think Dann is taking my townread as based on me assuming a town motivation for qp (or pretending the same) when the townread was me seeing qp avoiding a proscum line of action and pointing out the reason it was good to avoid that line of action.

In this case, letting Hu Tao v Dann dominate the thread would have been good for qp scum if Dann and Hu Tao were town, but trying to shift focus in a new direction is a risky move for qp that moved the game towards a higher information state. It’s less that the high info play has to have been qps motivation and more that keeping the low info status quo demonstrably wasn’t.

I also think Dann might have thought the read was stronger than it was.

[Bingle]

This day probably ends in an FB&M elimination unless something with that slot changes, I'll be honest.

And thank you for your 257, Jobby, that helps a lot.

Not qp? I’d think you would rather qp over buck in a vacuum to help with resolving me.

[Bingle]

I've gone for bingle because he retreated from the fight, but you shouldn't take that to mean I have neccesarily townread you.

I retreated from the fight because of this exact sentiment. If I was to be qhed right now with a venge kill, I don’t think I’d shoot Dann, and I don’t think it’s as easy to find each other if we’re both town going at each other’s throats.

I take your point that what content happened before our engagement was less than our engagement, but do you think the same can be said of the non binflor conversation since then?

[Dannflor]

This day probably ends in an FB&M elimination unless something with that slot changes, I'll be honest.

And thank you for your 257, Jobby, that helps a lot.

Not qp? I’d think you would rather qp over buck in a vacuum to help with resolving me.

It's not quite a vacuum. I found FB&M's pop-in scummy.

[Dannflor]

I'm not sure why you continually portray me trying to make things happen in the early game as either pro-scum or useless

[Dannflor]

hm maybe that's not fair based on what you said

[Dannflor]

Hu Tao v Dann dominate the thread would have been good for qp scum if Dann and Hu Tao were town, but trying to shift focus in a new direction is a risky move for qp that moved the game towards a higher information state

do I believe this is a real read from Bingle? that's the million dollar question

[Max Min]

Rules

[*]

Prodging

- A naked "prod dodge" does not reset the prod timer. To avoid being prodded/replaced for inactivity, include some game advancing content in your prodges, such as "got prodded; xxxx is still scum."

I feel like this rule is not strict enough.

[Dannflor]

Unfortunately, it is what it is with newbie games. Fortunately, there are 6-7 active players here to sort.

Is your top suspect Hu Tao at the moment, Max Min?

[Dannflor]

Bingle I could use a summary about where you're at with various slots

you can exclude me

[Bingle]

Is bingle capable of hiding such tells from you?

btw, I felt like responding to this. Yes. I am 100% capable of snowing Dann as scum. My scum game is vastly better than my town game. I take pride in that. I don't know that I would bother hiding those tells from Dann, because I tend to enjoy the game more playing to set up my partners to actually be the people who pull off the win, but it is a thing I have done and could feasibly do again.

With that said, Dann is probably the single person on site whose town game I respect the most at this point. He is VERY good at this game, as both alignments. This is not flattery, this is fact.

[Dannflor]

Flattery will not make me town read you

[Dannflor]

okay maybe it will a little