Mini 739 ~ Mafia Jailbreak, Game Over

[OhGodMyLife]

RE: The bottom half of Rhinox's 311, if Rhinox flips scum I would be willing to wager he has a partner somewhere in Rishi/Pops/Huntress.

I'd be willing to wager that the rhinox scum partner in that grouping is pops.

Pops >> Rishi >> Huntress

[bionicchop2]

For the SpyreX scum Triad, I'd like BC to explain why he finds Pops as the least likely of the three. I agree with

Unapologetically unhelpful (see the you aint got nothin on me coppa defense) + hiding in plain sight + bandwagon voting = delicious scum cookie. Come take a bite.

My reasoning can be found in the links of my previous post. An isolation of pops showed a clear contrast between the two alignments. For me, that will get him through day 1 without some scummy actions which are not displayed in his games as town.
----

@BC RE: post structure. As you said, whether or not someone is lurking doesn't depend on the actual number of posts, it depends on the content. I felt like IAUN, Spy and Jahudo had been contributing, and Huntress, MME and Rishi had not.

OK. I just wanted a clear statement so I wasn't misreading. I guess the standout for me was Huntress included in the list and IAU not included. The biggest reason is I have IAU on my radar for borderline non-contribution. His posts have had some content, but are the fewest of any player in the game (MME excluded). Also, I didn't see the lag in the posting from Huntress based on a purely content/number of posts basis. She seemed lumped in.

The one thing I had written about IAUN was a quote he made about Rhinox, but I felt like it fell under Rhino's category more than IAUN's.

This begs to question how much content was really included in his posts. It wasn't enough for him to say anything suspicious, but he also didn't land in your town grouping.

[bionicchop2]

As a side note, I really don't understand all this grouping going on where we are trying to determine how a player flipping as an alignment will affect our view on the rest of the game. Trying to pair people up and determine partners without knowing the alignment of anybody seems like a surefire way to spin our wheels. The alignment of a lynched player should be a small component of how others are analyzed IMO.

[SpyreX]

Let's delve further into the mind of Spyrex. I think it can be productive. Comments and questions in whatever order they pop into my head:

1. I won't completely dismiss the idea of Pops-scum since I do feel you are a solid scum hunter and I currently feel you are town. I feel it may be driven by his play style. The tough part is that he has a play style that would be very easy for him to carry into games when he is scum, especially if people accept it as his norm.

2. Since you have put a 33% chance on your 3 top suspects all being scum, I would be curious to know your 4th suspect if you have a clear one.

3. I need to update my Rishi notes now that he has posted a little more, but he is neck to neck with RC in my mind. Having fewer posts leaves me with less identifiable reasoning behind my suspicions of him though. Maybe this is an avenue worth pursuing.

4. I see I am not the only one who notices Jahudo floating around. Asking nice little questions, but not expressing any strong opinions. I can't find many things 'scummy' per se, but worth noting.

1.) Keep in mind I have no "play style" analysis on Pops. I haven't looked at his other games nor will I. I am basing it off this game. Thus, and if you like to look at my old games you'll see this sentiment: Meta is retarded, and if he's playing scummy NOW I want to lynch him for it now. If that's his meta, then we'll do this dance in every game we play.

2.) As of now, I dont have a solid 4th. I -could- be wrong about Rhinox or RC (if I was I'd say Rhinox at this moment but) or hell, you could be throwing the wool over my eyes or Jah could be a sneaky fella, etc, etc. More information from lynches will make that more apparent.

3.) Rishi would definitely not be a bad call at this juncture, imo. Still would prefer pops, but.

4.) He's had opinions, and done some clear overviews. Its just... I dont know. He blends in so well I can't pick out anything in particular.

@ Spy: I get what your saying... basically, the 100% chance you said, is based on your own read of the game. But when I see someone quote a % chance, I automatically think that is a set statistical probability that is independant of anyone's read. For example, in a 3 scum game, the true statistical probability of 1 of Rishi, Pops, or Huntress being scum is ~62%. In a 4 scum game, the probability rises to ~75%. (both numbers assuming you're calling yourself 100% confirmed town). So thats why I feel your 100% is misleading - there is a big difference between saying you strongly believe 1 of those 3 to be scum, and saying there is a 100% chance one of them is scum, IMO.

Ok. I kind of get what you're saying. However:

1.) Of COURSE it is my read of the game. The only scenario where I could be 100% sure day 1 that one of them was scum is... if I was scum and bussing my partner in that mess. In that case, I would have expected a response from you to address that instead of saying I'm misconstruing.

2.) True statistical probability would mean I could have picked any three names. I didn't. Those names were picked specifically because...with their play I can not see all three of them being town. Hence, one MUST be scum. Hence, 100%

So... yea. Not sure the reasoning behind this.

As a side note, I really don't understand all this grouping going on where we are trying to determine how a player flipping as an alignment will affect our view on the rest of the game. Trying to pair people up and determine partners without knowing the alignment of anybody seems like a surefire way to spin our wheels. The alignment of a lynched player should be a small component of how others are analyzed IMO.

QFT. Now, yes, I made a group of three players - but at this point I'm proposing lynching them based on THEIR behaviors not potential links to other players. Lets do some hanging and let the web filter out some before we slam dunk an entire grouping.

Worry about individually scummy players. When we lynch them and they are scum, then we move to connections. Not the other way around.

[bionicchop2]

1.) Keep in mind I have no "play style" analysis on Pops. I haven't looked at his other games nor will I. I am basing it off this game. Thus, and if you like to look at my old games you'll see this sentiment: Meta is retarded, and if he's playing scummy NOW I want to lynch him for it now. If that's his meta, then we'll do this dance in every game we play.

I have found a chink in your armor. I don't think meta needs to be a huge part of every read, but to completely disregard it is irresponsible of you IMO. You are getting into policy play here and anti-town hunting as opposed to scum hunting. For someone's play to be scummy, it would imply they are more likely to play that way as scum vs. town. If history shows them playing a certain way as town and NOT playing that way as scum, they are more likely to not be scum when displaying that style in future games (once the meta is proven to be broken, it becomes null, obv). My goal is to lynch scum, not lynch people who don't follow my personal standards for how town should play.

Now that I have defended Pops more than I really feel comfortable doing, I will move on. You know where I stand on it and why I won't be voting Pops in the near future.

[popsofctown]

Rhinox, you seem less scummy to me right now. But i can't clearly decide if i feel that way because of your massive AtE or because of actual evidence you've shown. So now i have to lynch you. Do you see how that lurks?

If it is going to come down to lynch Rhinox or not today that is. Perhaps the premature claim works with the possibility of jailkeepers?

CF Riots wanted explication of this post.

The first part was me trying to explain why he oughtn't be doing so much AtE, at least if he's town he shouldn't. My gut feeling on him is and was moving towards town, but i don't know whether that's due to AtE, which affects one's judgment in an irrational/inefficient way. The word lurks instead of works is a bizzare switch of words, it should be "works", i correct it later. If i was lurking this game nineteen people and their mother could say it was a freudian slip but i'm definitely not lurking this game.

The second part is admittedly confusing. What i was addressing there is Rhinox's premature roleclaim. With a vanilla claim, you usually want to lynch the guy who made the claim, since if he's town it makes it easier for scum to shoot at power roles, if he's not town then duh he needs to be lynched. Not saying lynching a vanilla is better than lynching town, but lynching claimed-vanilla is definitely better than lynching a townie player with no claim out, it helps the town in night strategy. So i asked in that post whether maybe the jailkeeper has any sort of positive synergy with vanilla townies that would justify leaving Rhinox alive..

Rhinox is a tough case to call. Admittedly, all he's done is massive amounts of low level transgressions. We haven't caught him using deliberate logical fallacies, or chainsaw defending, or anything really scummy like that. Just WIFOM in AtE, one of the things that blend in the most with newbies. I think bionicchop is coming from the perspective of wanting to separate newbie from scum in that respect, but i think he's probably erring on the wrong side in this case.

@Spyrex- You would lynch me every single game for the same action because you thought it was scummy? Most the world agrees that self-voting has a positive correlation with being scum, would you lynch Natirasha every single game you played with him? You'd lose more than i would. I guarantee it.

If you really would lynch me even if you looked up my meta and it showed that i'm playing pops-town, i want you to tell me right now if you are trying to play to your win condition. Because if you are playing to you're win condition and that's really you're policy, i have no logical choice but to vote you.

[CF Riot]

@BC, I missed your links when I originally posted. I actually missed about the last 3 posts before mine. For this:

This begs to question how much content was really included in his posts. It wasn't enough for him to say anything suspicious, but he also didn't land in your town grouping.

I think you answered your own question. There's some gray between scum and town, and I haven't pulled every player out of that area yet.

For the comment on Rhinox; I wanted to make my statement when I saw the offense. The way Rhinox responds to Spyre's numbers seems like an offhand defense of that group. It's not going to affect my voting today, and it will only be relevant

if

Rhinox flips scum, but I think it's best to call out tells as they occur, rather than fishing them up later.
----

So i asked in that post whether maybe the jailkeeper has any sort of positive synergy with vanilla townies that would justify leaving Rhinox alive..

What is your opinion on this issue?

If you really would lynch me even if you looked up my meta and it showed that i'm playing pops-town, i want you to tell me right now if you are trying to play to your win condition. Because if you are playing to you're win condition and that's really you're policy, i have no logical choice but to vote you.

And if you meta'd SpyreX and found that this is his policy in all his town games, wouldn't you be committing the same act you're calling out by policy voting him

for

policy voting you?

[SpyreX]

I have found a chink in your armor. I don't think meta needs to be a huge part of every read, but to completely disregard it is irresponsible of you IMO. You are getting into policy play here and anti-town hunting as opposed to scum hunting. For someone's play to be scummy, it would imply they are more likely to play that way as scum vs. town. If history shows them playing a certain way as town and NOT playing that way as scum, they are more likely to not be scum when displaying that style in future games (once the meta is proven to be broken, it becomes null, obv). My goal is to lynch scum, not lynch people who don't follow my personal standards for how town should play.

Now that I have defended Pops more than I really feel comfortable doing, I will move on. You know where I stand on it and why I won't be voting Pops in the near future.

There's no chink. We're just looking at the issues of gameplay drastically different.

From above, you are saying scummy play is scummy if and only if the aforementioned player does so as scum and does not do so as town.

I, on the other hand, find certain play(s) scummy by their nature. Further, the concept of meta as a shield for scummy play is what I take umbrage to - and that is what this is.

Meta, in very refined circumstances, can be used to find

differences

in play that could add credence to an argument for someone to be one alignment or another. However, and I will never, ever budge on this, meta can not, should not and is not a way to sweep play under the rug.

As for the last little bit - I AM looking for scum based on behavior that I find scummy. The fact that "bad metas" end up being scum well.. not going to change my play (see my sig).

@Spyrex- You would lynch me every single game for the same action because you thought it was scummy? Most the world agrees that self-voting has a positive correlation with being scum, would you lynch Natirasha every single game you played with him? You'd lose more than i would. I guarantee it.

If you really would lynch me even if you looked up my meta and it showed that i'm playing pops-town, i want you to tell me right now if you are trying to play to your win condition. Because if you are playing to you're win condition and that's really you're policy, i have no logical choice but to vote you.

Yep. I would lynch you every game if day 1 I thought you were playing scummy. Playing, not performing AN action. See, I dont care about "most of the world" with issues like self-voting. So, would I lynch Nat for that? No, of course not.

However, would I lynch K7 EVERY game? Or chenshi? Or Team Asshat? Yes, because their play is scummy from every damn game I've played with them.

And, just for the record:

1.) Bio is not going to lynch Pops because this matches his town play.
2.) Pops wants to lynch RC because this matches his scum play (See, also, providing content = scum because RC did this as scum).

It is so absolutely tempting to develop a bad, bad meta for myself and see how long it takes for the other shoe to drop. Srsly.

And, yes, I'll say it: I POLICY LYNCH PLAYERS I FIND SCUMMY REGARDLESS OF IF THAT MATCHES A META OR NOT. GIVE ME MY SCARLET S.

[bionicchop2]

From above, you are saying scummy play is scummy if and only if the aforementioned player does so as scum and does not do so as town.

Not exactly. What I am saying is that if the 'scummy' action is not present when they are scum, then it isn't scummy in relation to that player. If they do it as both, it can still be scummy.

Meta, in very refined circumstances, can be used to find

differences

in play that could add credence to an argument for someone to be one alignment or another. However, and I will never, ever budge on this, meta can not, should not and is not a way to sweep play under the rug.

I am using it to show differences. Compare the links I posted and enter with an open mind. The scum link shows Pops acting completely different as scum and in a more conventional manner - missing all the things you are criticizing him for in this game.

However, would I lynch K7 EVERY game? Or chenshi? Or Team Asshat? Yes, because their play is scummy from every damn game I've played with them.

I don't know the other 2, but I agree on K7. You are missing my point. K7 plays like shit as both town AND scum. The only way to learn his alignment is to lynch him. Pops has show distinct differences in the game I read. He didn't make a single joke in his scum game.

It is so absolutely tempting to develop a bad, bad meta for myself and see how long it takes for the other shoe to drop. Srsly.

And I would lynch you unless I saw you only do it in your town games.

You are being stubborn with your policy. I do not support bad play and I do not excuse actions with meta. I look for differences (some more subtle than others) when I meta.

[SpyreX]

I'll get into this more later, but:

If you had never ever seen a pops game, what would you think of his play thus far?

Also, welcome to the "if we're wrong about the people we've opted to defend we are getting power lynched club" because after all this no way if pops is scum like I think can I see this goin good places.

[bionicchop2]

If you had never ever seen a pops game, what would you think of his play thus far?

He would be in the top half of my suspects, but I don't think top 3. My meta-read on him countered his fluff which would have been my top reason to suspect him.

[Vi]

Vote Count:

RedCoyote (L-2) ~ Huntress, bionicchop2, popsofctown, Rishi, iamausername

Rhinox (L-3) ~ Jahudo, RedCoyote, OhGodMyLife, CF Riot
popsofctown (L-5) ~ SpyreX, Moriarty147
OhGodMyLife (L-6) ~ Rhinox

Minimum (L-7)

Not Voting:

Moriarty147

[size=0]bionicchop2 - 0 | Huntress - 1 | iamausername - 1 - PROD1 3 | Jahudo - 0 | CF Riot - 0 | Moriarty147 - 0 | OhGodMyLife - 0 - PROD1 10 | popsofctown - 0 | RedCoyote - 0 | Rhinox - 0 | Rishi - 0 | SpyreX - 0 PROD1 2[/size]

Second Deadline Review: Wednesday, Feb 18 2009
Current Deadline: Sunday, Feb 22 2009

----

GIVE ME MY SCARLET S.

Dare I ask what this Scarlet Letter is supposed to stand for?

[SpyreX]

The S is for scumhunter, apparently thats bad.

Bio: If it was JUST fluff, then sure I could be persuaded to dismiss it. Its not though.

[bionicchop2]

The S is for scumhunter, apparently thats bad.

Bio: If it was JUST fluff, then sure I could be persuaded to dismiss it. Its not though.

Maybe you could bullet your case for me again, because your last post outlining why you thought he was scum was:

Ultimately, every single damn one of you that are voting RC because you say he is "unhelpful" versus "actually scum" drive me nuts because no matter how I weigh the actions of the two in the realm of unhelpful pops keeps comin up spades. 51 posts and I'd go ahead and say 50% of that is "fluff" (remember that thing he was so up in arms about).

His jump from Rhinox to RC was based heavily on a meta-tell. In rereading, I could see SOME credence for the Rhinox vote but the jump... no.

Every ounce of me screams "scum" at Pops this game. Every bit.

Unapologetically unhelpful (see the you aint got nothin on me coppa defense) + hiding in plain sight + bandwagon voting = delicious scum cookie.

Come take a bite.

So the bandwagon voting is the only thing I see which isn't related to the fluff. Maybe if I could understand your case a little better, I wouldn't be so sceptical.

[SpyreX]

Well FINE. I'll go through tomorrow and rebuild my damn case.

But, I don't think that the being unhelpful is directly a part of the fluff - it is a separate issue that is exacerbated by the fluff.

[RedCoyote]

why would a scum give up instead of fighting until the end? This makes no sense at all.

Arguments so based in emotion are used to cloud the rational judgment of another person.

Saying things like Rhinox has said lead me to believe he's trying to arouse sympathy for his plight, rather than actually attempting to change his ways.

So you don't 100% believe my explanation. Fair enough... I haven't really given you or anyone a reason to trust anything I've said.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, this statement just takes the cake for me.

"Ok bionic, you don't believe me... it's not like I'm exactly trustworthy anyways I guess ;_;"

What is the intention of this statement if not to manipulate someone emotionally?

Are you going to argue, Moriarty, that Rhinox really doesn't consider himself evocative of trustworthiness? No, I don't believe Rhinox actually thinks he doesn't give players reasons not to trust him, I contend that he's just saying that in order to twist bionic or whoever else into

feeling bad

for his situation of being distrustful.

For instance, it was you who revisited the SK discussion, even after it was almost about to be abandoned.

But my point is... unless there are sk kills, there is no reason to suspect an sk, nor hunt for one. If there are extra kills tomorrow, we'll know.

I think it's the more risky approach to dismiss the probability of an SK in the game, but I understand your argument.

I basically said I personally think Rhinox's position is more risky for the town, but I understood it. I was content to leave it at that.

Rhinox asked me to continue to discuss it, which I did. Unfortunately because of schedule difficulties, I usually post at a different time than most players, so, as some of you have probably noticed, I tend to average about a post a day in the wee hours of the morning. Why this is important is because I think it puts me at a disadvantage having people think that I am rehashing old discussions, when in reality I usually look at the thread with an entire page of activity that I haven't seen before.

However, I am fairly distressed with SpyreX's attempt to derail the wagons on Rhinox and RC this late in the date.

Do you think Spy will move his vote before the deadline, should it come to that? Will you?

I find OGML's scumspiracy slightly out-of-place on day 1. It seems a bit odd, and using past games as "evidence" for such a conspiracy is weird. I'd honestly wait for some flips before suggesting such an idea

I agree with this.

---

@whoever suggested RC has posted too much content to be scum: noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo. RC posts LOTS OF CONTENT when he's scum. Lots of content. This is a craptell.

Since pops doesn't respond to my questions any longer, can someone else read this and ask pops

what the heck

he is talking about?

If your vote on me is primarily based on my meta (read: an excuse to vote me), and you are saying that I will post "LOST OF CONTENT" if I am scum, then you've just contradicted yourself.

Or do you contend that I have posted "LOTS OF CONTENT"?

---

Turns out she just uses AtE excessively regardless of alignment.

The 64,000 dollar question is, does Rhinox use an excessive amount of emotional appeals regardless of alignment?

A large portion of his posts were made in defense of his initial actions. Once called out that his posting was scummy, scum really would be forced to either commit to it 100% or backtrack out of it.

Whether you are willing to believe it or not, the discussion I had with Rhinox, and to a lesser extent Huntress, Jahudo, and Rishi, aided me in feeling these players out.

---

They're only damaging if they're true. Since those are pretty much the reasons you are being wagoned, that means that either there is good merit in those accusations, or scum are taking those accusations and running with them just to get you lynched.

And which side are you on?

Let me rephrase your statement so that you can better understand the corner you painted yourself in. Either you acknowledge to helping scum bandwagon me, or your "merited accusations" against me are still not good enough for your own vote against me.

OGML isn't the most townie player here, but so far as I can tell your case against him is based largely on his overzealous predictions.

Why is OGML a better lynch than me?

Even if you think I'm scum pushing your wagon from the sideline

...

that would still mean there would have to be scum on your wagon if you end up being lynched

I do indeed think there are; I think pops sticks out like a sore thumb.

Since I know I'm town, and I'm not voting for you, that would pretty much prove to me that at least 1 scum would have to be on your wagon to get you lynched today if you're town.

Then why are you voting OGML?

---

If scumRhinox gets backed into a corner over his use of AtE, his best course of action is to continue using AtE while shouting SCUM WOULD BE TOO CALCULATING TO USE ATE. If he continues getting attacked, he continues doing it, because he is now committed to this strategy. And it is nothing like your example with crywolf - AtE is not part of Rhinox's meta.

This.

---

Why are we assuming four scum in the game?

Keep your vote where it is Rishi, because I agree with Rhinox on this point and that was primarily what I was arguing throughout the first half of today.

---

Rhinox has never been lynched in a game nor been under significant pressure, therefore he does not have ANY meta on how he responds to pressure. AtE is one of those things I have trouble with. It always feels scummy, but I think it is less often telling of a persons alignment than it is just a reflection of the person.

Why does pops and Rhinox's meta evoke a general town read and my meta not have a factor? Do you agree with pops when he says that I am acting like scumCoyote?

Further, are you making the argument that when you don't consider there to be "ANY meta" that we should assume that emotional appeals are necessarily null?

[Moriarty147]

Arguments so based in emotion are used to cloud the rational judgment of another person.

Saying things like Rhinox has said lead me to believe he's trying to arouse sympathy for his plight, rather than actually attempting to change his ways.

This is true, yes, but what bothers me is the

time

at which Rhinox decided to go on his AtE escapade, namely when he was at L-3 and really in no danger at all. If he were scum, wouldn't it be simpler to change his playstyle, concede a few points, and try to blend in, rather than go on a massive AtEfest and raise suspicion on yourself even further?

Do you think Spy will move his vote before the deadline, should it come to that? Will you?

This was never in question, what does that have to do with anything?

Re: pops voting RC, pops's reasoning for voting RC appears to be complete crap so far. Would definetly like to see more input from him. Or at least something, a single shred of evidence that's not based on RC-meta.

Come to think of it, none of the cases on RC seem terribly convincing at all on a re-read.

Why are we assuming four scum in the game?

For reasons that have been discussed to death in the first couple pages of the thread. It is the best course of action to assume the worst-case scenario amount of total "scum", i.e. all anti-town players such as all mafia factions, SKs, etc. The fact that you are complaining over this issue this late in the thread makes me wonder about you.

@bionicchop2: the issue is that meta is unreliable. What makes you think that a scum-pops couldn't, for instance, change his meta between the last game he was scum and this one?

Worry about individually scummy players. When we lynch them and they are scum, then we move to connections. Not the other way around.

QFT. I'll worry about how my opinions on pops will change given RC or Rhinox flipping scum only after they actually flip scum. In any case, either of them flipping scum will warrant scrapping my current thoughts on the game and doing a re-read, because clearly it means that I was completely off in my judgement.

Oh, and what's vaguely distressing is how well iamausername has been slipping under the radar this entire time. Not sure what to make of it so far, but definetly something to keep my eye on in the future.

Also, something I'd like to ask Rhinox: you claim that the wagons on both you and RC had a significant amount of scum on them, so who do you think the scum might be? It's strange for you to make such a claim (which I thought notable as well) and then not do any wagon analysis of your own whatsoever later.

[RedCoyote]

If he were scum, wouldn't it be simpler to change his playstyle, concede a few points, and try to blend in, rather than go on a massive AtEfest and raise suspicion on yourself even further?

Perhaps. I contend that he continued using emotional appeals to try and get the town to accept the frame of Rhinox just acting that way. bionic's read of Rhinox is exactly, in my mind, what Rhinox wants the rest of us to think: that Rhinox has a style of using emotion and we should just discount it altogether.

OGML in post 313 really explains Rhinox well too I think.

This was never in question, what does that have to do with anything?

You said you were distressed that Spy might be trying to derail the wagons on pops and I, I was asking if you thought, as the deadline gets even closer, Spy would switch his vote or not. I also asked if you would.

I'm intending to see how deeply motivated you are at advancing popsscum. Do you think pops is a plausible lynch today?

[Moriarty147]

OGML in post 313 really explains Rhinox well too I think.

That is, indeed, a plausible reading. I still think Rhinox is town atm, but that conviction is starting to shatter as time goes on. Hm.

You said you were distressed that Spy might be trying to derail the wagons on pops and I, I was asking if you thought, as the deadline gets even closer, Spy would switch his vote or not. I also asked if you would.

I personally can't read Spy's mind, but I doubt that given the choice between a lynch or a no lynch, that he'd still stick for a no lynch, as that gives town strictly less information to work off of in day 2. Personally, if needed, yes, I would switch to Rhinox at deadline, but as of now I would much rather see pops hang.

I'm intending to see how deeply motivated you are at advancing popsscum. Do you think pops is a plausible lynch today?

Plausible? Well, it's hard to say. Overwhelmingly likely today will end in either a lynch of Rhinox or you. A wagon jump at the last minute to pops is possible though, especialy if he continues to be as unhelpful as he is right now.

[bionicchop2]

Why does pops and Rhinox's meta evoke a general town read and my meta not have a factor?

1. Meta is only a portion of my reading.
2. I have not said definitively anywhere that I have a town read on Rhinox based on meta. Please identify where I have.
3. What I saw from pops was very distinct from my perspective, so it holds more weight with me.
4. My skimming of your games did not show me any conclusive differences in your play that I could easily recognize without being in the game and completely aware of the game situations (versus a static read of a completed game)

Do you agree with pops when he says that I am acting like scumCoyote?

My case on you is independent of anything Pops has said.

Further, are you making the argument that when you don't consider there to be "ANY meta" that we should assume that emotional appeals are necessarily null?

I think AtE create too many false-scum reads for me to find it reliable. I have always found the use of emotion to be manipulative and that would naturally lead me to find it scummy. On the flip side, I am not sure I have encountered a player who has used them excessively as scum and not used them as town. This leads me to believe the action is more telling of personality than it is of alignment.

@bionicchop2: the issue is that meta is unreliable. What makes you think that a scum-pops couldn't, for instance, change his meta between the last game he was scum and this one?

1. The scum game I linked finished this month, a couple of days after this game started. If someone was going to consciously change their meta, I would expect the change to be universal.

2. Not all players are aware of their own meta differences until they are called out on it. In any future games with Pops, I would fully expect him to change his meta - though some people (Xtoxm) don't care enough to change after I identify differences.

3. He won the game linked as scum. There would be no incentive to modify the style that previously was successful.

[Rishi]

What bothers me, every time I read this, is that there's no "fire" or real fist-pounding belief in this at all. Does Rishi say he is scum? No... just that the SK discussion is unhelpful. Does Rishi give his reasons for the wagon? No...just that he agrees with Bio.

Yet, he's been suspicious of RC all along? Really, there was a few questions, but I'm having a hard time seeing that suspicion throughout.

What you're talking about is playstyle. I have been known to occasionally get emotional, but that's increasingly rare. I try to play with my head and not my heart.

And my suspicion of RC was there all along. Usually, if I'm asking questions to someone, it means I'm suspicious. In any case, even if I didn't articulate my suspicion since my first post on RC, it was still there.

@Rishi: How legitimate was that attack for the case? The post in question dealt with RC posts in the first 3 pages and you said this of the early suspicions:

I can't believe people are still harping on this. I did say there wasn't that much content in the first few pages, but I didn't say there was none. Besides, RC had subsequent actions which made him more scummy, even if the initial suspicions were small.

I guess you haven't been reading too closely then. There have been multiple discussions about assuming the worst case scenario for games. In this case, the range of scum is 2-4. Mafia role PMs are written for 2-3 mafia and there is a possibility of 1 SK.

How would this be a scum slip? How would a person in either group be able to determine there are 4 scum? A sk, could only guess if there are 2-3 mafia and mafia could only guess if there was a SK. Neither group has any way of determining the possibility and more than a town player would.

First of all, if a question or comment is directed at another player, I would appreciate it if you would let that player answer before stepping in. This isn't the first time you've done this in the game, either. You have a strong possibility of tainting the answer that the player is about to give.

I didn't think we had come to any conclusion on the number of scum issue, and Rhinox was talking as if it were a certainty there. Also, it could definitely be a slip. If someone only has one scumbuddy, then it's a good possibility that there's another scumgroup out there with also two members.

Assuming 4 scum in the game (which I always do in a mini, FYI)

I always assume 4 scum in a mini, until proven otherwise. I don't assume anything about factions.

and for the record, here's the full context where you took that quote from:

In order to come to that conclusion, you would have to be 100% sure that at least

4

3 of Bio, Username, CFR, OGML, jahudo and moriarty are town, as well as assuming you are town yourself, and assuming 4 scum in the game. I find it suspicious that you are able to confirm

4

3 town players on D1, and use that information to say that the probability is 100% that at least 1 of Rishi, pops, and huntress are scum. I do agree with the points you've brought up against the three players, but I feel like its manipulative for you to say that you're 100% sure that at least 1 of them is scum.

I changed the 4's to 3's above because I realized my numbers were off. Changing the assumption from 4 scum to 3 scum only makes Spy's claim worse, because he has to be able to confirm 1 more townie, for a total of now 4 instead of 3. In other words, I was just expressing a best case scenario for Spy's claim that at least 1 of Rishi, Pops, or huntress has to scum, by showing that he would have to be 100% confident of at least 3 players being town if there are the maximum 4 scum in the game. If there are only 3 scum, then he would have to be 100% confident on 4 players being town, making his accusation even harder to believe.

Good job explaining why you wrote four instead of three in a few different ways. Nice job appending the line "which I always do in a mini, FYI" to your original quote. The fact that you felt the need to explain it so many ways makes me feel as though you're getting defensive about something. Still, your explanation is plausible (and bionnicchop2 derailed my question anyway), so I won't vote but, unlike before, IGMEOY now.

RE: The bottom half of Rhinox's 311, if Rhinox flips scum I would be willing to wager he has a partner somewhere in Rishi/Pops/Huntress.

Why is everyone just assuming that SpyreX's list is correct? To me, the list seemed somewhat arbitrary, but it seems like everyone has bought the mantra that one of us on that list is definitely scum.

As a side note, I really don't understand all this grouping going on where we are trying to determine how a player flipping as an alignment will affect our view on the rest of the game. Trying to pair people up and determine partners without knowing the alignment of anybody seems like a surefire way to spin our wheels. The alignment of a lynched player should be a small component of how others are analyzed IMO.

QFT.

3.) Rishi would definitely not be a bad call at this juncture, imo. Still would prefer pops, but.

Dude, I'm right here. Other than that one post that I voted for RC, you still haven't given any reasons for thinking I'm scum. It's like you think if you repeat that I'm scum enough that people will believe it. This is actually a fun experiment you can try in any game. You keep listing a particular player on your "scumlist" and keeping saying "This player bothers me but I'm not sure why." The player doesn't have anything concrete to defend himself against, so can't really respond to the accusations. Soon other people put the player on their scumlist and start scrutinizing the player's posts and voila! That player is lynched. At this point, I don't really think you're scum, but after this game, I think I'm going to nominate you for a title: "Confirmation Bias Poster Boy."

[popsofctown]

And if you meta'd SpyreX and found that this is his policy in all his town games, wouldn't you be committing the same act you're calling out by policy voting him

for

policy voting you?

Not if he answers my question and says "yes, i'm playing to my win condition.". Because that policy only plays to his win condition if he's scum. It's not a policy vote, it's an i-found-scum vote.

[popsofctown]

Ok, Spyrex is really miffing me off. He's being a total loser and not fulfilling his responsibility to this game. You aren't supposed to play a mafia game for the sake of fulfilling a vendetta against certain playstyles, or proving "yoohoo, i can make this group of people lose with me every game they play with me until i pound them into submission". That's not what you're supposed to be here for. My understanding is that you bring nothing into the game, and you play the game with no goals beyond the game you're playing, playing it to win. If you're town Spyrex, your win condition for this game is not prove a point to popsofctown. It is not punish popsofctown if he does something you don't like. It is lynch popsofctown if he's scum and leave him alive if he's town. My meta is available to you, BionicChop has brought it up. I don't defend myself with my meta, like has been said you can manipulate a meta and use it to your own advantage, so bringing it up myself would be ridiculous. But to flout your sig as being serious, that you play games and lynch people on policy instead of real scumhunting ticks me off. That's not what you owed me when you signed up for this game. You owed me to try and win this game, not follow a policy.

If you can show why his meta is bad, why in this instance meta isn't accurate on me, fine, fine. That's what RC is saying about himself. That's fine. RC wants to win this game. I know he does. But saying, oh, yeah, i bet he would do X whether he was town or scum, but i hate X so i'm just gonna lynch him is ridiculous and violates the commitment that you made to this game, unless i don't understand the point of the mafia games on the site i've been playing for quite a while.

[popsofctown]

Re: Redcoyote case: no one seems to understand my special treatment of RC. He's like K7, in a different way, evidence shows that i can't read him. In this case it's not because he won't post, it's because he's too good at this game. Since i became 99% sure of the incorrect result one time when he was scum, it's safe to say that my general scumhunting analysis of him is useless. The only hope i could have is a meta analysis.

It's like if i had two thermometers, and one of them told me that it was 99 degrees when i was in alaska. I'm not going to use that thermometer again.. at least not in alaska. I have another thermometer, and i'm not sure how good it is, but that's what i'll go buy.

The only two ways i think i could determine RC's alignment is by that second thermometer, possibly unreliable, possibly unaccurate, or if he flips. Since that second thermometer is red, all signs point to lynching him.


The whole meta thing aside, the reason i'm voting him is a general tell that's enhanced by his meta actually. I think it's clear that he's externalizing blame a lot, scummy, and that he talked about SK more than he needed to. Scum players naturally like to talk about things that don't bear on their alignment - it's easier to talk about, you don't have to fight through the lying. The SK discussion was just the thing, i think that's why RC jumped in headfirst and loved it.

@RC- where have i not answered you're questions? I'm sure it hasn't happened extensively, you can repeat them like anyone else would instead of whining about me not answering your questions after just one or two instances.

@CFRiot- My take on the premature claim is that we probably do need to lynch Rhinox. I think Rhinox has been scummy. The original misread and horribly crappy and desperate coverup is lynch reason enough, and the vanilla claim means we really ought to decide whether Rhinox is scum or not. Based on my own analysis of setup possibilities, a suspicious vanilla townie is useless in night strategy, a jailkeeper won't want to target him anyway since he won't get night killed.

So, since CFriot's inquistions are all the input i got about night strat,

unvote, vote: Rhinox

Re: RC posts content when he's scum: RC does post lots of content when he's scum. The caps was mostly because it's a pain to read. I'm not saying him posting lots of content is a tell, that's ridiculous. I'm just saying that his posting much content is definitely not a towntell for him. Simple Bayes' theorem, he's not any less likely to post all that content when he's scum so don't count it in his favor.

I hope that answers you're question RC.

Since Rhinox could very well likely be the lynch for today, i think i'll be responsible and read some RC town. If BC is doing work i can do work. Do work, son!! I'll search for RC's games.

[popsofctown]

I read some RC-town. I didn't see anything that makes me feel better about his alignment in this game. He was having a lot less fun in that game than he's having now ~