DHSDSM alpha: Game Over.

[Yosariwen]

The timer counting down the end to Action Phase 1 is off - it's set to 12:00 on 3-30-09 instead of 4-30-09. Link to fixed countdown.

thanks for the correct link. Editing the OP now. ~Adel

[Yosariwen]

I don't get it. What does Portishead have to do with Zmd? It is an inside joke? I want answers!

Are you that dense?

Incamn's crumbing is neutral for now, as there are multiple data roles than can be of either alignment and would benefit from early crumbs. Currently a null tell.

[Yosariwen]

Vote:Trotsky

Hasn't posted yet.

-Yos

[Yosariwen]

Vote:Trotsky

Hasn't posted yet.

-Yos

i like that you singled me out. why so protective of sex w/ shafted's wife, raging wishbone, frog dodging, zmd, apples and banana, i wonder?

Because in this stage, the main point of any vote should be to get a reaction and get the game moving, try to get something going (especally when we're on a very short clock, like this game) and singling one person out is more likely to get a useful reaction then going after 5 people at once.

[Yosariwen]

Yoswarian

: What did you hope to accomplish with this post? (other than mocking J-scope, that is)

Incamn's crumbing is neutral for now, as there are multiple data roles than can be of either alignment and would benefit from early crumbs. Currently a null tell.

wow just had sex with the wife ironically enough. No time for a post but have to say this deep south thing is exciting. Damn shame incamn was being so obviously townie.

So Yos noticed the tracker breadcrumb. why did you point it out so blatantly?

Actually, that was Nuwen, and I'm not sure why she did. I rather wish she hadn't, considering; I feel that it was a mistake. That being said, in a game like this, if a scum thought he or she had seen a town power role tell, the right move wouldn't be to make a big deal about it in thread; it would be to not say anything in thread and just quietly kill the person without making a big point of mentioning you figured out their role, especally since it looks like scum can both day talk and submit a kill at any time.

-Yos

[Yosariwen]

unless she was further fishing for confirmation of said breadcrumb

I guess. That's be a really high risk scum gambit with a really low chance of a payoff, though, especally with good players like incognito.

Ortohoops: Horray for lurker lists. Thanks for doing all that work, I'm usually the only one who bothers to make a lurker list and I'm glad to see someone else doing it. I agree with you, lurking in this game is incredibly anti-town and scummmy, more so then in a normal game.

Any specific reason you voted for Zmd out of those 4 people with 2 posts? Just curious; I'll probably check them all out for myself when I have a chance and vote for whichever one of them looks the worst, beause I agree with your logic here.

Raging wishbone: I quoted that because the second half of rule 6 talks about the rules for kills, not because of the part about lynching.

And yeah, since Incamn was actually a tracker, I think it was a mistake for Nuwen to mention in thread her thoughts about the possible breadcrumb; if Incamn had been scum instead, it wouldn't have been a mistake.

As for your last few sentances; I have no idea if she thinks she's "incapable of making mistakes", and I'm not sure what that has to do with my comments on her play.
-Yos

[Yosariwen]

@Yosariwen and anyone else who cares to chime in... Did Nuwen out Incamnito as a Tracker?

Yes and no. I pointed out Incamn's breadcrumbs because power role identification in this game has a very high reward versus risk. There are 3 scum among 14 players (~79% chance of mislynch with vig, ~70% chance of mislynch with sk). However, there are 3 possible scum power roles to 5 possible town (no greater than 40% chance of mislynching,

if all five are in the game and at least 2 scum power roles exists

. If less than five town power roles, chance of hitting scum by outing power roles increases).

At the time, "outting" Incamn's breadcrumbs had a much higher chance of hitting scum than voting randomly. However, I wasn't prepared to lynch on a fluid series of probability predictions. I said the breadcrumbing action itself was equally town and scum motivated - this is important to remember for all future breadcrumbing and claims; all remaining town power roles have a scum/anti-town counterpart with the similar inclinations to crumb/claim.

I am

not endorsing

that the town seeks out power roles to lynch; Incamn's isolated crumbing caught my eye, particularly after J-scope's overtly clueless reaction.

-Nuwen

[Yosariwen]

explanation

That's exactly what you're seeing - Wishbone and company asked for an explanation and got one. Are you

really

trying to make a requested response seem scummy?

If reading comprehension is the issue, my point can be summarized as: there was no reason to assume Camn's breadcrumbing came from a town player. Power roles of both alignments have motive to crumb their action, and hitting a power role at random is more likely to hit scum than hitting any play at random.

[Yosariwen]

At the time, "outting" Incamn's breadcrumbs had a much higher chance of hitting scum than voting randomly.

But didn't you initially call it a null tell?

Here's the distinction - the

motivation

behind breadcrumbing was a null tell (any power role has the motivation to crumb his or her results, regardless of alignment). As an independent body, nothing Incamn did made him/her more likely to be scum than town or town than scum.

Probability

dictates that killing a random power role will hit scum more often than killing any other random player. This isn't a tell; it's a ratio observation independent of the crumbing itself.

hitting a power role at random is more likely to hit scum than hitting any play at random.

Did you have this feeling back then?

Mmhm, but I wanted to run the idea by my hydra partner prior. We came to the consensus that although the chance of a mislynch is lower, the cost to town is far higher. But that rough probability is a good item to keep in mind when approaching any future claims.

Pointing out Incamn's crumbs was a bad move in retrospect, yeah, and I apologize - but I didn't see any reason why the act of crumbing was anything but neutral.

[Yosariwen]

Why would you assume something before you have reason to assume it? I'd say that Yosariwen pointing out the breadcrumb thus signaling to the scum "HEY-O POWER ROLE HERE" is a much better reason for the kill than to frame 5 people on a bandwagon.

Why are you assuming it was a scum kill, Frog? Especally considering that there were 5 votes on the wagon, I wouldn't at all be surprised if the Incamn kill was a compulsive vig (remember, if there is a compulsive vig, that role has to kill every single action phase, every 96 hours.)

[Yosariwen]

Why would you assume something before you have reason to assume it? I'd say that Yosariwen pointing out the breadcrumb thus signaling to the scum "HEY-O POWER ROLE HERE" is a much better reason for the kill than to frame 5 people on a bandwagon.

Why are you assuming it was a scum kill, Frog? Especally considering that there were 5 votes on the wagon, I wouldn't at all be surprised if the Incamn kill was a compulsive vig (remember, if there is a compulsive vig, that role has to kill every single action phase, every 96 hours.)

Because I have enough faith in humanity to assume that a compulsive vig of sound mind wouldn't kill a breadcrumbed power role who was acting quite town for no other reason than they "might be scum"?

There were 5 votes on Incamn at the time. Clearly, quite a few people really thought Incamn was scum, and it's not unreasonable at all to think that a compulsive vig, who has to kill someone every 96 hours no matter what, might kill someone they think is scum.

Plus now we've just confirmed that it was the scum kill, unless the scum has decided that killing one of their own power roles would be a good idea for today.

Yes. NOW the town has enough infromation to know that it was, in fact, a scum kill. However, from the way you worded that post, you seemed to KNOW it was a scum kill earlier in the day, at a time when only scum could possibly have known that for a fact, which is why I asked you about it.
-Yos

[Yosariwen]

Actually, that was Nuwen, and I'm not sure why she did. I rather wish she hadn't, considering; I feel that it was a mistake.

Mmhm, but I wanted to run the idea by my hydra partner prior. We came to the consensus that although the chance of a mislynch is lower, the cost to town is far higher. But that rough probability is a good item to keep in mind when approaching any future claims.

These two don’t add up. How can they both be true?

FoS: Yosariwen

Timing. When I made that post, I had talked with Nuwen yet, and I had no idea what she was thinking when she questioned Incomn's role. We later had a detailed mafia theory discussion about it.

She had come to the conclusion, before the game started actually, that the right move in this kind of game is to lynch anyone who claims a role or who even hints at a role, becuase a high percentage of people who have roles are scum, and there's of course also a chance that somone who claims or hints at a role is lying about it and also scum. She apparently discussed this with Adel some time ago. So she was not at all reluctent to out someone who seemed to be breadcrumbing a role right from the very start of a game, when there's really no good reason for a pro-town tracker to do so.

I really, really don't agree with that conclusion, at all; pro-town roles are way to important to just lynch anyone who claims a role, and I tend to go in the opposite extreme if anything; a game like this can actually be "solved" sometimes by confirming as many people in role-related ways as you can. I think her theory ideas were wrong, and that she made a big mistake.

Still, let me repeat my defense again her; there is absolutly no reason, at all, that a scum who thinks he found a pro-town role would make a big deal about it in thread and then daykill the person themselves shortly afterwards. That would be just horrible, horrible scum play, and there is no advantage to it.

[Yosariwen]

Yes. NOW the town has enough infromation to know that it was, in fact, a scum kill. However, from the way you worded that post, you seemed to KNOW it was a scum kill earlier in the day, at a time when only scum could possibly have known that for a fact, which is why I asked you about it.
-Yos

Great so now both heads of your hyrda are fishing for power roles.

Ok, now that's just silly. We know a vig didn't kill Incamn now, so how could I possibly be fishing for power roles?

What I'm "fishing" for is scum, or at least for someone who seemed to have information only a scum could have. That was why I asked the question, and it looks rather scummy to me that Frog attacked me because I pointed out a possible scum slip on his part.

[Yosariwen]

Vote:Trotsky

Hasn't posted yet.

-Yos

Lurker vote, when, as pointed out, several other hydras hadn't posted either. Quite coincidental, in hindsight, that he happened to pick someone that flipped Scum, given how many people had yet to post.

Protip: Voting for a scum is not a scum tell.

Vote:Trotsky

Hasn't posted yet.

-Yos

i like that you singled me out. why so protective of sex w/ shafted's wife, raging wishbone, frog dodging, zmd, apples and banana, i wonder?

Because in this stage, the main point of any vote should be to get a reaction and get the game moving, try to get something going (especally when we're on a very short clock, like this game) and singling one person out is more likely to get a useful reaction then going after 5 people at once.

Explains why one was singled out, though it still remains that the person picked supposedly for the sake of picking someone flipped Scum. With Yos having an almost 'perfect' answer to Trotsky's question, its also very possible this line of questionning had been planned in advance.

Dude, I'm Yosarian. I've got a perfect answer for every question.

Seriously, anything I do, I know why I do it and can explain it in as much detail as is desired. It's silly of you to suggest that somehow me being able to explain why I do the things I do somehow is suspicious.

Yoswarian

: What did you hope to accomplish with this post? (other than mocking J-scope, that is)

Incamn's crumbing is neutral for now, as there are multiple data roles than can be of either alignment and would benefit from early crumbs. Currently a null tell.

wow just had sex with the wife ironically enough. No time for a post but have to say this deep south thing is exciting. Damn shame incamn was being so obviously townie.

So Yos noticed the tracker breadcrumb. why did you point it out so blatantly?

Actually, that was Nuwen, and I'm not sure why she did. I rather wish she hadn't, considering; I feel that it was a mistake. That being said, in a game like this, if a scum thought he or she had seen a town power role tell, the right move wouldn't be to make a big deal about it in thread; it would be to not say anything in thread and just quietly kill the person without making a big point of mentioning you figured out their role, especally since it looks like scum can both day talk and submit a kill at any time.

-Yos

You say "it looks like scum can both day talk and submit a kill at any time." Shouldn't you

know

that to be the case, since you were Scum in Adel's previous Deep South game, Crackers! Mafia, where we were scumbuddies and could daytalk? Why would you think Adel would change the rules for this one, especially when Town won that game? And the part about not outing it in-thread is WIFOM.

Um, scum can apparently daytalk because it says they can in the scum role PMs posted in the mod's post. Putting the word "apparently" into sentances like that is basically a force of habit by this point, since if I didn't, you probably would have called THAT a scumtell.

As for your last sentance; you can't just wave the WIFOM wand to make arguments you don't like go away. If our actions don't make sense for a scum to do, then you can't call them scummy; that's what scummy means, is an action that scum is more likely to do then a town.

unless she was further fishing for confirmation of said breadcrumb

I guess. That's be a really high risk scum gambit with a really low chance of a payoff, though, especally with good players like incognito.

Ortohoops: Horray for lurker lists. Thanks for doing all that work, I'm usually the only one who bothers to make a lurker list and I'm glad to see someone else doing it. I agree with you, lurking in this game is incredibly anti-town and scummmy, more so then in a normal game.

Any specific reason you voted for Zmd out of those 4 people with 2 posts? Just curious; I'll probably check them all out for myself when I have a chance and vote for whichever one of them looks the worst, beause I agree with your logic here.

Raging wishbone: I quoted that because the second half of rule 6 talks about the rules for kills, not because of the part about lynching.

And yeah, since Incamn was actually a tracker, I think it was a mistake for Nuwen to mention in thread her thoughts about the possible breadcrumb; if Incamn had been scum instead, it wouldn't have been a mistake.

As for your last few sentances; I have no idea if she thinks she's "incapable of making mistakes", and I'm not sure what that has to do with my comments on her play.
-Yos

Comments on the lurker list, says he'll go back and look at the 4 hydras with only two posts, which still hasn't been done. Asks if there's a specific reason ZMD was voted for, out of the four lurkers, when he had chosen Trotsky 'for the sake of choosing someone to focus on' earlier in the game.

I think I made clear that I liked Ortohoops's play here. Asking for additional information can only help in a case like this.

I also don't see why the fact that Incamn was actually a trakcer has anything to do with whether calling out the crumb was a mistake or not. Whether Incamn flipped Town or Scum shouldn't change the validity of the play to call out the breadcrumb.

Wait...what?

If Incamn had been a scum who was trying to breadcrumb tracker early on so they could use that to their advantage later, then calling it out and putting the spotlight on Incamn early would have been an AWESOME pro-town play.

Its almost never a good idea to base lynches in Mafia off of math probabilities,

Why not? It's often a very good idea, especally if that's all you have to go on.

You can't possibly be claiming that Town is better of lynching claimed Power than lynching unclaimed people, are you?

That was her belief at the time, yes.

Right, but you're still missing the point. Even though the act of crumbing iitself may be neutral (though I disagree on that note, which I'll explain in a second), pointing out every crumb you see is akin (though worse) to just asking for a mass-claim on Day 1, because in your view claimed Power is more likely to be Scum than a random person. And I still think crumbing is slightly pro-Town, since Scum that don't have a role will force themselves to lock into a claim very early if they want to crumb, which may backfire or become irrelevant if the set-up then stops that claim from being passable.

Only if the crumb is noticed. If a scum can plant a crumb early on and no one notices it, then the scum can use that crumb to set up a fake claim later in the game; or can choose to not do so, if it's to their advantage. Which is another advantage to pointing out a crumb, especally if it's a crumb that seems like one a pro-town person wouldn't really want to make.

Really; why would a pro-town tracker feel the need to crumb at the very part of day 1? I still don't get that, personally; considering it's a semi-open game, the odds of a tracker claiming tracker and not being believed seems very small to me.

Again, I wouldn't have pointed it out, because I'm especally paranoid about outing power roles and outing roles in general in basically any setup. Nuwen thought she had pro-town reasons for doing so, though, and there really is no reason for a scum to do that.

Your SK speculation dosn't make sense either, since a SK could just as easily daykill as the a mafia member could; trying to direct the kill of the other scum group in thread, on day 1, just seems like it would be an absurdly suicidal gambit to me, for very little real benifit.

[Yosariwen]

Yos don't play dumb. You know your comment directed at FD cuts both ways.

Ah...ok, I see what you mean.

Dosn't that go for most scum slips, though? One of the best ways to find a scum is that scum have information the town dosn't, and it's an easy mistake for a scum to give that away in thread; but there's always a risk in looking for that kind of scum tell that the person with more infromation then they "should" have is some kind of town role.

[Yosariwen]

It's too glaring to just say "well it doesn't make sense as scum...look a birdie!" There's a very decent chance that scum would make that play.

Again, why would scum make that play?

The only reason you've given was "role fishing", but that dosn't really make sense. If a scum spots a pro-town role planting a breadcrumb (ESPECALLY if they think it's a pro-town information role), the right play would basically always be to either just quietly kill the person, or find some other excuse to vote and attack that person and see if you can run them up to a claim.

If you point out the breadcrumb, you actually lower their chances of being lynched in the near future, and at the same time dramatically increase how bad you'll look if they get killed and come up as a pro-town power role. "Point out the breadcrumb, get no additional information, then kill the person" would be about the worst possible move a scum could do in that situation.

There's no way pointing out the breadcrumb and then killing Incamn makes sense as a scum move, at all. I really can't understand why you think a scum would want to do that.

[Yosariwen]

You argue that Nuwen did it because power roles are more likely scum, yet no vote incamn was cast and she states herself it's a nulltell.

As she explained, nulltell, as in "could be power role post or scum post." Which still means more likely scum then a random lynch would be.

Furthermore as I've pointed out INFORMATION powerroles are NOT more likely scum, as Nuwen alluded to. I don't recall you ever adressing this point as I brought it up.

One sec, discussing this with Nuwen right now, since she just got on AIM...

The "data role" is not what you think it is; she just meant a role with information, not an info role. (It's ok you were confused; so was I, until I just asked her). Actually, she thought Incamn was breadcrumbing doctor, she just didn't want to be that specific.

Here, our AIM conversation we're having right now.

ArtherDent (5:59:13 PM): What, exactally, was the crumb you spotted? Could you explain it to me?
mercuriala (5:59:33 PM): Why? I was listening to Portishead, the new album, and I was thinking that it is just as progressive for TODAY as the old albums were FOR THEN.
Like, logically, Portishead(Third) is to NOW as Portishead(Dummy) was to 1994. You understand.

And FOS Yosariwen for artificially inflating thier post count.
mercuriala (5:59:53 PM): The odd capitalization is what first caught my attention.
ArtherDent (6:00:44 PM): Ok
mercuriala (6:01:11 PM): I suspected this was a breadcrumb of doc protection on the third player, ZMD, whom she oddly voted for.
mercuriala (6:01:40 PM): Didn't even cross my mind that it was a tracker crumb, since there would be no results to report yet

She thought Incamn was tryign to breadcrumb doctor who protected ZMD (which didn't really make sense since they also voted ZMD). This would mean that either Incamn was a pro-town doctor, a scum doctor, or some other scum trying to set up a breadcrumb to fake a doc claim later.

Again, I wouldn't have revealed the crumb, because I'm totally paranoid about revealing any pro-town roles under almost any circumstances. You are basing your conclusion on an incorect assumption, though. Plus, you seem to be assuming that a scum would never fake a breadcrumb to set up for a fake claim later.

Then there's the discrepency as to whether or not you discussed this ahead of time.

What discrepency? We did not discuss any of this before she made that post, nor did we ever say that we did. If we had, I would have told her not to post that. I'm not sure what you're getting at here.

I ask you again what kind of townie points out a freaking tracker breadcrumb because it's a nulltell? There's even less motivation for that.

She never thought it was a tracker breadcrumb.

[Yosariwen]

why is Nuwen on AIM but not posting to clear this up. This is so assbackwards

I mentioned to her that you said that, and she responded:

mercuriala (6:23:50 PM): shafted can take my double work shift and midterm and shove it.

[Yosariwen]

mercuriala (6:23:50 PM): shafted can take my double work shift and midterm and shove it.

someone asked if this was an illegal post. It isn't. See rule 17.

So, which one of you is scum trying to get me modkilled here? Fess up.

[Yosariwen]

Their actions were bizarre enough for players of their standards - they've had multiple pressing cases against them in areas not even crumb-outing related

Now, that seems completly untrue to me. What valid argument was there made against me that wasn't entirely based on that one post of Nuwen's?

[Yosariwen]

Their actions were bizarre enough for players of their standards - they've had multiple pressing cases against them in areas not even crumb-outing related

Now, that seems completly untrue to me. What valid argument was there made against me that wasn't entirely based on that one post of Nuwen's?

the explanations after the post

First of all, ppfffftttt.

Second of all, he claimed there was some kind of case against me that was not "crumb related"; Nuwen explaining why she thought revealing the crumb was a good idea at the time is clearly crumb related.

[Yosariwen]

I actually...I donno, I don't have a pro-town read on Poker-Tajo here. They havn't really scumhunted yet at all; I don't really have any idea who either of them suspect at this point, and we're already in day 2 here.

[Yosariwen]

(keep messing up the alts thing)

On a side note, the fact that whoever attempted to have me modkilled is refusing to admit it is making me more and more convinced that that person is scum. Now, there weren't that many people around and posting at the time; it's possible that someone just stopped by the thread, tried to get me modkilled, and left without posting, though.

[Yosariwen]

@Yos:

You need to explain this. Now. Because I have not contradicted myself at all, and as far as I can see, neither has Nuwen.

You adressed it in your (isolation) post 11. I do not think said explanation is valid in the least, because it does not explain why the second quote from J-Scope mentions that you came to a consensus BEFORE going for it, while the first specifically mentions that you hadn't.

Ok, now that is just completly wrong.

You mean this quote, right?

Mmhm, but I wanted to run the idea by my hydra partner prior. We came to the consensus that although the chance of a mislynch is lower, the cost to town is far higher. But that rough probability is a good item to keep in mind when approaching any future claims.

She posted that she saw the breadcrumb. I posted in thread that it was a mistake and I had no idea why she did it. Then we discussed it, I pointed out that her theory was wrong because the cost to the town of a mislynch is much higher. Then she made this post.

She never said that we "came to a concensuss before going for it", or whatever it is you're trying to say, at all. Not even a little bit. And I already explained this; why are you misrepresenting me so blatently here?

2. The OMGUS is noted.

When you invent a complete bullshit reason to join my wagon and put me at lynch -1 out of thin air, it probably means you're scum, so I'm going to vote for you. Deal with it, scum.

[Yosariwen]

Nobody can "get you modkilled." You have to do something modkillable, and then it would be your fault, not anyone else's even if they point it out to the mod.

Oh, absolutly. But in my experence, when someone tries to point out to the mod "Person X broke rule Y right here, see, look?" it's usually a scum trying to get a townie modkilled. And between this statement and your other head's attempt to blame apples for it, I'm starting to think it's the two of you who did it, and are now lying about it.


[qupte]
NOBODY NEEDS TO GET YOU MODKILLED SINCE WE ARE LYNCHING YOU.[/quote]

Nope. Town almost lynched me, but I'm now starting to think we're going to lynch scum instead.

[Yosariwen]

Why do you even think someone was hoping Adel would modkill you? Maybe they wanted to post something similar and wanted to check that it wasn't illegal? YOU DON'T KNOW THE MOTIVATION!

No, I don't. Which was why I asked the question in such a provocitive way in the first place; if I did it in an accusitory way, I assumed if a townie did it, they would admit it and explain why; but if a scum did it, they would either lie about it or ignore the question. We'll see, someone still might fess up, but it's starting to look like it was a scum.

If I did it, I wouldn't lie about it. I'm tempted to say I did it just to stop this pointless speculation, and get back on track lynching you. But alas, I didn't do it.

If you are a scum who did it for anti-town reasons, there's no reason you would admit it.

We ARE lynching scum: YOU!

Interesting; not long ago, your other head was attacking us because he wanted to see Nuwen post, now you want to lynch me before she gets a chance to post even though she said is going to post later this evening? No call for a claim, no questions, no argument; you just want me dead, huh?

[Yosariwen]

You are a smart guy, Yos. You know when it's time to claim. If you don't do it when you're at L-1, that's your look out.

Meh. That's not the issue here. The issue is that you don't seem to care about my role, or my alignment, or my thoughts, or my opinions, or anything. My other head made a mistake in like the 4th post of the game, mostly based on her inexeperence and based on mafia stratagy ideas of hers that are, let's say, very unconventional, and you want to use that to get us lynched.

I really get the feeling here that you don't even seem to care about my alignment. You just want me dead. You even started making pre-emptive excuses for mislynching me, like "If you're town, Yos, I'm sorry, but we can't let this slide." Based on some of your posts, I am really getting the vibe that you KNOW I'm town, and want me dead anyway.

[Yosariwen]

@Yos: Alright, let's analyze this quote.

Mmhm, but I wanted to run the idea by my hydra partner prior.

This bit shows that the intention was there to descuss BEFOREHAND with the hydra partner.

We came to the consensus

And now this bit shows that said discussion took place, because a consensus was reached, which is directly in contradiction to your claim that you had not spoken with Nuwen prior to the crumb-outting in question. This seems very simple to me. How is this misrep? It's your own words.

Because you're compeltly taking it out of context.

This was the entire quote.

hitting a power role at random is more likely to hit scum than hitting any play at random.

Did you have this feeling back then?

Mmhm, but I wanted to run the idea by my hydra partner prior. We came to the consensus that although the chance of a mislynch is lower, the cost to town is far higher. But that rough probability is a good item to keep in mind when approaching any future claims.

If read in context, it's quite clear that what she was saying was that the reason she didn't vote for Incomn in that origional post, even though she thought lynching a power role was a good idea, was BECAUSE she HAD NOT RUN IT PAST HER HYDRA PARTNER YET. LATER, when we did discuss it, we agreed that lynching claimed power roles is actually a bad idea.

I mean, her post was NOT that hard to understand, dude; why are you trying so hard to twist her words?

[Yosariwen]

Yos, I need more info about this:

She had come to the conclusion, before the game started actually, that the right move in this kind of game is to lynch anyone who claims a role or who even hints at a role, becuase a high percentage of people who have roles are scum, and there's of course also a chance that somone who claims or hints at a role is lying about it and also scum. She apparently discussed this with Adel some time ago. So she was not at all reluctent to out someone who seemed to be breadcrumbing a role right from the very start of a game, when there's really no good reason for a pro-town tracker to do so.

I don't understand how anyone could think this is a lynchng claimed power roles is a pro-town strategy.

I don't think any of the working premises are true... like I don't think "a high percentage of people who have [power] roles are scum"

She can probably explain her logic better when she shows up, but I'll give it a shot.

This was what she said earlier in the thread:

Yes and no. I pointed out Incamn's breadcrumbs because power role identification in this game has a very high reward versus risk. There are 3 scum among 14 players (~79% chance of mislynch with vig, ~70% chance of mislynch with sk). However, there are 3 possible scum power roles to 5 possible town (no greater than 40% chance of mislynching, if all five are in the game and at least 2 scum power roles exists. If less than five town power roles, chance of hitting scum by outing power roles increases).

The theory she came up with before the game started was that lynching a claimed power role is more likely to hit scum then a random lynch, even if the power role is telling the truth about being a power role; and of course they might just be lying scum.

When I discussed this with her in chat later, I pointed out all the flaws in this logic; the big one, of course, being that a 60% chance of lynching a pro-town power role is just incredibly unacceptable, and she agreed with me and no longer supports that theory. However, that was her logic at the time.

[Yosariwen]

But how is she even coming up with those numbers when we don't know how many power roles are in the game on either side? Can't there be like 5 towntrackers or something and no mafia power roles (well, we know they had a RB at least). But, don't you have to know the balance for that to work? Because the list of possible roles is just that: possible. Adel could do a lot of crazy shit inside of that.

I agree completly.

You also want to remember, Nuwen is kind of a newbe here. She only has 2 completed games; heck, she couldn't even play as an IC yet. She was awesome in WIH, of course, and clearly has a lot of natural talent, but she hasn't seen nearly as many games as we have.

[Yosariwen]

I have my AIM listed in my profile, it's within public knowledge domain. And Yos checked with me.

Oh, right on, so Yos posted it first? and he asked your permission? This is a discussion you both had?

...See he didn't as far as I can read, someone else did, perhaps a scum buddy? This ties into the lie which originally got you put on the spot. You claimed to have a non existent conversation with Yos regarding crumbtrails. you both contradicted each other... I kinda still think you are a bad lynch but why lie when you don't need to?[/quote]

What are you talking about, wishbone?

No one contradicted anyone, and no one lied about anything. How can you say "we had a non-existing conversation" when she just posted that conversation in thread? And, when Adel's rules specifically say we can quote whatever we want, what's wrong with quoting something from outside the thread?

[Yosariwen]

]I was pretty surprised when I woke up today and we

still

hadn't lynched, seriously, why are we delaying? If we don't lynch Yosariwen, we're probably going to be another two days away from another lynch.

Of course there's a chance they're town, but waiting for the perfect lynch candidate isn't something we can always wait for. [/color]

Weak excuse, Hoopla. If you think I'm scum, explain why; if you think I'm town, then we'll lynch someone else. There's no reason it has to take long at all to put together a bandwagon, and there's no reason to lynch someone unless you think they're scum.

It seems like you and shafted/elvis both are trying to create this illusion that my lynch is inevitable here, when of course it is not. And enough people are active so that there's no reason a new bandwagon would have to take long at all.

[Yosariwen]

I have my AIM listed in my profile, it's within public knowledge domain. And Yos checked with me.

Oh, right on, so Yos posted it first? and he asked your permission? This is a discussion you both had?

...See he didn't as far as I can read, someone else did, perhaps a scum buddy? This ties into the lie which originally got you put on the spot. You claimed to have a non existent conversation with Yos regarding crumbtrails. you both contradicted each other... I kinda still think you are a bad lynch but why lie when you don't need to?

What are you talking about, wishbone?

No one contradicted anyone, and no one lied about anything. How can you say "we had a non-existing conversation" when she just posted that conversation in thread? And, when Adel's rules specifically say we can quote whatever we want, what's wrong with quoting something from outside the thread?

meh one more post... Nice tags, you answered none of my questions and now that I know you are at l1 and we can have some fresh eyes read the exchanges from tonight,,, I feel completely confident putting you at l1 (last time I try to see either on your point of views when you cant answer the simplest of questions)

VOTE YOSO/NUWEN!

I didn't "answer your questions" because you're not making any sense!

You asked me "why do we need to lie" when we haven't lied about anything, and you refuse to explain what you're talking about! How the hell am I supposed to "answer that question"? You might as well ask me "Why do you still beat your wife?" and then get angry when I "refuse to answer the question".

Here, I'll "answer your questions":

Oh, right on, so Yos posted it first?

I posted what first?

and he asked your permission?

Yeah, I asked if she would mind me posting that conversation in the thread where she explained her breadcrumb. Why?

This is a discussion you both had?

Yes.

...See he didn't as far as I can read, someone else did, perhaps a scum buddy?

...and here you lose me completly. I did ask her. She said ok. What are you talking about, "a scum buddy"? YOu think a scum buddy asked her if I could post part of her conversation in the thrad? That dosn't make any sense at all, especally since I was just talking to her and I was the one who posted it; how on Earth do you bring someone else into the uestion?

Anyway, what do you mean "he didn't as far as I can read"? I asked her if she minded me posting that line, she didn't mind, so I posted the line. It wasn't the first AIM with her I posted, either. What is so hard to understand about that?

why lie when you don't need to?

No one lied about anything. And I have no idea where you're getting this from, since you refused to answer my questions.

[Yosariwen]

It was not you, why did Nuwen answer that question with the implication it was you who first posted it and

she gave you permission to do so

... You did not Adel did, so why did she write that... You know Dude, its all about little lies for no reason...

Um...Nuwen said something to me over AIM. I asked Nuwen if I could post it in thread, BECAUSE I WOULD NOT WANT TO REVEAL HER AIM NAME TO EVERYONE WITHOUT HER PERMISSION, and Nuwen said it was ok. So, yes, Nuwen gave me permission to post that in thread. Adel didn't have to give me permission, because it was specifically stated in the rules that it was ok.

So, what, exactally, is it that you seem to think is a lie? That was just the direct truth. NO ONE HAS LIED. If you really think someone has lied here, you need to explain exactally what you mean, because you're not making any sense.

Also, there is the whole breadcrumbing thing which I think either Hoopla, or someone else caught but they pointed out that you indicated you and Nuwen had talked but Nuwen lied and said you didn't... I might be wrong and it may be vice versa.....

I just explained this a page ago. Are you reading the thread at all here?

People misinterpreted something nuwen said in a bizzare way, somehow thinking she was saying we had talked about her mentioning the breadcrum before she said it in thread, when actually if you read her post in context it's quite clear she was saying the exact opposite of that. I already explained this all, when discussing this with Hogfather, and he unvoted me as soon as he realized his logic was incorrect. And now you're trying to use that as an argument against me even after it's been proven to be invalid?

Go back and read that response I made to Hogfather, if you want; if you have any questions then, I'll be glad to explain farther.

[Yosariwen]

Another question for Yos: why did you think the first kill was a vig kill? And what help is it to speculate and point that out if it was?

To be clear; it wasn't that I thought it was a vig kill, it was that I thought it was possible it was a scum kill, possible it was a vig kill, and possible it was a SK kill. At the time, any of those seemed like possibilities to me; at the time, remember, we were well on our way to lynching Incamn, so I did think it was possible a dayvig with an itchy trigger finger would try to hurry the game along by just killing Incamn if he thought they were scum. Now, I never thought it was *more likely* a vig kill then a scum kill, but it did seem like a definate possibility to me.

And I wasn't trying to "point out" that it was a vig kill, either; it just seemed odd to me that Frog seemed to have a much higher level of certanty about where the kill came from then I did, and that make me wonder if perhaps he was part of the scum group that made the kill. Not a huge scumtell, perhaps, but worth mentioning and questioning him about.

[Yosariwen]

Too Townie? What the fuck are you talking about? I said he picked one target from the 5 possible hydras that hadn't posted, and now that target flipped Scum.

The thing is, voting for someone who hasn't posted yet is something I usually like to do for a "not quite random" vote, partly because I do think scum are at least slightly more likely to do that then town. I do that in enough games, I am going to hit scum some of them.

Do you really suspect anyone who random votes for a scum? Because if everyone random votes, then that would usually include about 25% of the town in most games...

[Yosariwen]

Yoswen why are you still alive btw?

Well, apparently, most people aren't convinced by the case against me. Even the people voting for me seem to not be convinced by their own arguments; you certanly seem to have doubts, and Raging Wishbone apparently wanted to put me at lynch -1 but wouldn't want to hammer me, or something.

[Yosariwen]

Why would you assume compulsive vig over SK anyway?

I didn't. I already explained this.

...and something else I just realised. Nuwen explicitly said that Incamnito's crumb was for an

information

role. None of the mafia power-roles are, in fact,

information

roles.

She did not say that she thought it was an information role. SHe actually thought they were breadcrumbing doc.

The point being made here (by Frog I believe) was in fact that the breadcrumb is more likely to have come from town than scum

I don't get what makes you think that. Or, at least, why you would disagree with Nuwen's assumption that it was more likely scum then a random lynch would be (remember, her thinking was that a claimed role would be 40% likely to be scum, which is higher then random).

You basically contradict yourself here. You suggest scum have a decent chance of fake-breadcrumbing/fake-claiming tracker yet suggest there is little reason not to believe a tracker-claim.

Considering there is no scum tracker role in this game, there really is no reason a town tracker would be especally worried about his claim being believed. Of course, now that we've had clarificaction from Nuewn, this whole line of discussion is obsolete; she never thought it was a tracker crumb, it never even occured to her, because there isn't any reason for a tracker to crumb something early on day 1; if a tracker was going to breadcrumb, it wouldn't be until after they had information, which wouldn't be until day 2.

[Yosariwen]

You also want to remember, Nuwen is kind of a newbe here. She only has 2 completed games; heck, she couldn't even play as an IC yet. She was awesome in WIH, of course, and clearly has a lot of natural talent, but she hasn't seen nearly as many games as we have.

That's bs. She picked up on a breadcrumb I still don't even understand (LuL) and was perfectly happy to "run numbers" for the likelihood of a power role being scum vs town (even if I disagree with the principle of insufficient reason assumed).

Right. She's got a lot of natural talent, reads very closely, and thinks in a very mathmatical way, especally about game theory and game stratagy.

However, she hasn't actually seen that many setups, which is why I don't think stuff like the "5 pro-town trackers" setup Shaft.ed was suggesting would necessarally occur to her. I also don't think that she's aquired the instintive habits of thought most long-term mafia scum members have, like "outing roles=bad".

You seem to be saying "No, she's not a newbie; look how smart she is!" The one has nothing to do with the other.

[Yosariwen]

We noticed that Yosariwen is not voting. Perhaps a good starting point to diversifying discussion would be for Yosariwen to analyze players and post a list of suspects.

I'm not?

(looks back)

Oh, ok; I was in the wrong account when I voted for Hogfather, so it didn't count, right.

Anyway, my main suspect right now is Raging Wishbone. Early on, they were defending me; then all of a sudden they turned around and joined my wagon, for reasons that make absolutly no sense at all. And it's interesting to note that he was not willing to hammer me, but wanted on to the bandwagon when it wasn't a hammer; which just makes it look like he knows the wagon is going to go bad, and dosn't want to take the blame for it.

Vote:Raging wishbone

[Yosariwen]

Yos is also, now, not reading the game thoroughly. He claims there was no contradiction - proving that he has not read J-scope's post, where he points out a contradiction.

There wasn't, as you apparently figured out below; unless you're talking about something else?

Anyway, I'm certanly not skimming the game; I really don't think there is any kind of valid case against me that dosn't involve the breadcrumb, at least not that hasn't already been refuted.

I don't really understand why Yos wants Nuwen to sign the post.

Ironically, it wa because I wanted to reduce confusion, even though it seems to have had the oppoiste effect.

Me and Nuwen had very different opinions on the theory behind the breadcrumbing thing; I thought it would be a good idea for her to explain why she did it, while signing it to make clear that the opinion was coming from her, not from me, so as to not further confuse the conversation.

Nuwen the posts that she wanted to run by the idea of

lynching

these people with Yosarian - and in the AIM convo, that is more or less what she does. She was not running the idea of outing the breadcrumb past Yosarian - she did that independently - but due to miscommunication and a small amount of talking at cross purposes - J-scope's question is about the following quote

hitting a power role at random is more likely to hit scum than hitting any play at random.

and he asks whether she felt that at that time - and therefore whether it influenced Nuwen's decision to out the crumbing - but Nuwen's reply (Mmhm, but I wanted to run the idea by my hydra partner prior.) is about the idea of

lynching

those claims, not about the specific breadcrumb post.

Right. I did already explain this all, you know.

Because you're compeltly taking it out of context.

This was the entire quote.

hitting a power role at random is more likely to hit scum than hitting any play at random.

Did you have this feeling back then?

Mmhm, but I wanted to run the idea by my hydra partner prior. We came to the consensus that although the chance of a mislynch is lower, the cost to town is far higher. But that rough probability is a good item to keep in mind when approaching any future claims.

If read in context, it's quite clear that what she was saying was that the reason she didn't vote for Incomn in that origional post, even though she thought lynching a power role was a good idea, was BECAUSE she HAD NOT RUN IT PAST HER HYDRA PARTNER YET. LATER, when we did discuss it, we agreed that lynching claimed power roles is actually a bad idea.

I'm not sure why you're accusing ME of skimming the thread, when you're apparently not reading my posts...

That being said, this whole analyis does feel pro-town to me, and I feel a lot better about Frog's alignment now.

I think there is a decent amount of concern about appearances (which

is

scummy, if not amazingly so) but there is also the fact that the situation is discussed

from a town perspective - this will hurt town, this will aid town, this is a great position for town etc. etc.

Well, sure. I mean, we *were* trying to not get lynched at the time, so yeah, I was worried about how we would appear. Worring about appearances in general may be a scum tell, but it's certanly not one when you're fighting for your life.

I have never, not once in my mafia playing career, seen a "slip" I believed in

I have. I've even made one myself before. Granted, it's not something that happens often, but eh.

[Yosariwen]

Yosariwen (the total contradiction in explaining the crumb-outing is enough for a vote for me

You need to explain this. Now. Because I have not contradicted myself at all, and as far as I can see, neither has Nuwen. And from where i sit, right now it looks like you've from lurking all game to just making stuff up in order to find an excuse to get on the yoswagon.

Yos, this is the post I am referring to. It doesn't matter whwther or not the contradiction is true - what matters is that you accused him of making stuff up, and you seemed completely unaware of what he was talking about, even though J-Scope had already pointed it out.

Except I had already responded to that J-scope post before then, and had explained this.

Actually, that was Nuwen, and I'm not sure why she did. I rather wish she hadn't, considering; I feel that it was a mistake.

Mmhm, but I wanted to run the idea by my hydra partner prior. We came to the consensus that although the chance of a mislynch is lower, the cost to town is far higher. But that rough probability is a good item to keep in mind when approaching any future claims.

These two don’t add up. How can they both be true?

FoS: Yosariwen

Timing. When I made that post, I had talked with Nuwen yet, and I had no idea what she was thinking when she questioned Incomn's role. We later had a detailed mafia theory discussion about it.

And I thought it was pretty clear then; I had no idea at the time I'd have to explain the same damn thing 5 times. Note this was long before Hogfather attacked me on that issue. So, yeah, I didn't think there was any contradiction at this point; I thought that misunderstanding had already been resolved.

Why would you think I "hadn't read J-scope's post" here, when I had alredy responded to it?

Similarly, we made a number of points here

Yos is also not his usual self. I would expect yos to be slightly more angry at this point in his wagon rather than conciliatory. I would also have expected him to start scumhunting by now rather than questioning people. I would definitely expect him to have called out the lurkers, and I would definitely expect him to be more actively involved in the game rather than just sitting around asking questions. It's no good asking questions if you don't respond to the answers.

To respond to this: I don't generally get angry if someone attacks me for things that make sense to me. I understand why people thought Nuwen's origional post looked anti-town, so that didn't make me angry. On the other hand, people who have kept attacking me for the same misunderstaning over and over even after I've explained it multiple times were making me angry.

As for the scumhunting: Eh, fair enough. I've had to spend so much time defending myself, I haven't done as much scumhunting as I normally would be doing in a speed game. I'm trying to rectify this now, especally with my vote on Raging wishbone.

Well, sure. I mean, we *were* trying to not get lynched at the time, so yeah, I was worried about how we would appear. Worring about appearances in general may be a scum tell, but it's certanly not one when you're fighting for your life.

Misleading. You weren't under fear for your life at the time you had the conversation.

Really? let me see...

Looking back at the thread...I believe the conversation happend Thursday night, close to 9:00 PM, a few hours before Nuwen made our Yosariween post #8. Looking at the most recent votecount, we had 5 votes on us already then, and the main topic of conversation was the attack on us. So, yeah, we were "in fear of our life" at that point.

[Yosariwen]

The reasons for your vote on RW isn't incredibly logical if you stop to think about it.

Sure they are.

When RW thought I was going to be lynched without his help, he defended me, trying to position himself so he'd look good when I died.

THen, when hogfather unvoted me and it looked like I might survive, he voted me, to make sure that didn't happen. The reasons for his switch were very weak, and made very little sense.

The whole flip there really looks like a scum manuever.

[Yosariwen]

Shit. I think that was a hammer.