DHSDSM alpha: Game Over.

[Yosariwen]

@Yosariwen and anyone else who cares to chime in... Did Nuwen out Incamnito as a Tracker?

Yes and no. I pointed out Incamn's breadcrumbs because power role identification in this game has a very high reward versus risk. There are 3 scum among 14 players (~79% chance of mislynch with vig, ~70% chance of mislynch with sk). However, there are 3 possible scum power roles to 5 possible town (no greater than 40% chance of mislynching,

if all five are in the game and at least 2 scum power roles exists

. If less than five town power roles, chance of hitting scum by outing power roles increases).

At the time, "outting" Incamn's breadcrumbs had a much higher chance of hitting scum than voting randomly. However, I wasn't prepared to lynch on a fluid series of probability predictions. I said the breadcrumbing action itself was equally town and scum motivated - this is important to remember for all future breadcrumbing and claims; all remaining town power roles have a scum/anti-town counterpart with the similar inclinations to crumb/claim.

I am

not endorsing

that the town seeks out power roles to lynch; Incamn's isolated crumbing caught my eye, particularly after J-scope's overtly clueless reaction.

-Nuwen

[Frog Dodging]

I'm taking that as over-reacting to an obv-prod vote. It can stay.

Pesco

I see I'm mostly proving right about Pesco Light being the weakest of the hydras this game. How blasé.

I'd like him to be staring at a few votes when/if he finally shows up.

I'd like him to be an exaple to everyone else who can't be bothered.

And you said it yourself.. time is not on our side. You convinced me.

I work Friday-Monday and unlike you have a life. Sorry!

Hey, we were talking, my partner and I, and we decided we wouldn't be surprised if there were scum on our wagon. It does have just a little too much steam.
So, for future reference:
Incamnito (5) --> J-Scope, Death the Hogfather, Ortohoops, Zmd, Pesco Light

Let's see... Scopey adores bandwagons, Pesco Light is made up of gibbering idiots as well as Ortohoops, Death is made of people who over-logic things, and Zmd is made up of dumbass who needs to pay attention and Zazie. That explains all 5 votes fairly well.

Incamnito suddenly dying is interesting, more interesting is the fact that sex, PL, Ortohoops, A&B, and even the other me completely ignored analysis of this post in favour of discussing Incamnito's death.

@Frog Dodging: Are you being sarcastic in any of your posts?

Good question. Next!

We have to rely on lynches to find scum instead of power roles we can’t dictate or confirm even exist yet, and I think we should probably follow the same standards as deciding whether to lynch or no lynch on a day/night game. If someone looks scummy enough, let’s lynch them.

Define "enough". "Enough", for instance, could be attempting to assassinate the president, or it could just be looking at him funny.

I am really suspicious of Yosariwen at this point, and I'm surprised that more people aren't.

tl;dr? Our best percentage play is lynching lurkers now on the basis of early lynches being closest to random. The percentage we may lose is lynching a possibly less scummy player is more than made up in keeping the most active players alive now. This boosts the average activity per player, and means the consensus for a lynch is more thoroughly discussed, which is good.

Let's take the already somewhat random early lynches and make them more random by adding (what is in the early stages an) arbitrary criterion? How is this exactly a "good plan"?

Sorry I still don't get it, there was not 50% of the votes places on Incangnitoan?

Pay attention, dumbass.

PL totally overreacts to tajo's suspicion of it. That's so adorably hilarious and worse than what Yosariwen has done.

My suspicions lie firmly in the Pesco Light camp, although I have no clue what other I thinks at the moment. I would not be opposed to a Yosariwen stringing-up at this point, but I think that can wait for now.

Vote: Pesco Light

Please note, as I believe has been said elsewhere, that I will not be signing my posts, nor will other I. We are as one, and one as we are, we have no need to separate our thoughts.

Are you kidding me sweety? I aint voting for PL, because you disguise a fart as some sort of diatribe that is suppossed to be an articulate argument! Lynch scum DUMBASS, not Townies!

Riveting analysis.

Yes and no. I pointed out Incamn's breadcrumbs because power role identification in this game has a very high reward versus risk. There are 3 scum among 14 players (~79% chance of mislynch with vig, ~70% chance of mislynch with sk). However, there are 3 possible scum power roles to 5 possible town (no greater than 40% chance of mislynching, if all five are in the game and at least 2 scum power roles exists. If less than five town power roles, chance of hitting scum by outing power roles increases).

At the time, "outting" Incamn's breadcrumbs had a much higher chance of hitting scum than voting randomly. However, I wasn't prepared to lynch on a fluid series of probability predictions. I said the breadcrumbing action itself was equally town and scum motivated - this is important to remember for all future breadcrumbing and claims; all remaining town power roles have a scum/anti-town counterpart with the similar inclinations to crumb/claim.

I am not endorsing that the town seeks out power roles to lynch; Incamn's isolated crumbing caught my eye, particularly after J-scope's overtly clueless reaction.

Is there an actual point here, or is it just a useless fluff and rhetoric wishy-washy half-assed explanation I'm seeing?

[Raging Wishbone]

I'm taking that as over-reacting to an obv-prod vote. It can stay.

Pesco

I see I'm mostly proving right about Pesco Light being the weakest of the hydras this game. How blasé.

I'd like him to be staring at a few votes when/if he finally shows up.

I'd like him to be an exaple to everyone else who can't be bothered.

And you said it yourself.. time is not on our side. You convinced me.

I work Friday-Monday and unlike you have a life. Sorry!

Hey, we were talking, my partner and I, and we decided we wouldn't be surprised if there were scum on our wagon. It does have just a little too much steam.
So, for future reference:
Incamnito (5) --> J-Scope, Death the Hogfather, Ortohoops, Zmd, Pesco Light

Let's see... Scopey adores bandwagons, Pesco Light is made up of gibbering idiots as well as Ortohoops, Death is made of people who over-logic things, and Zmd is made up of dumbass who needs to pay attention and Zazie. That explains all 5 votes fairly well.

Incamnito suddenly dying is interesting, more interesting is the fact that sex, PL, Ortohoops, A&B, and even the other me completely ignored analysis of this post in favour of discussing Incamnito's death.

@Frog Dodging: Are you being sarcastic in any of your posts?

Good question. Next!

We have to rely on lynches to find scum instead of power roles we can’t dictate or confirm even exist yet, and I think we should probably follow the same standards as deciding whether to lynch or no lynch on a day/night game. If someone looks scummy enough, let’s lynch them.

Define "enough". "Enough", for instance, could be attempting to assassinate the president, or it could just be looking at him funny.

I am really suspicious of Yosariwen at this point, and I'm surprised that more people aren't.

tl;dr? Our best percentage play is lynching lurkers now on the basis of early lynches being closest to random. The percentage we may lose is lynching a possibly less scummy player is more than made up in keeping the most active players alive now. This boosts the average activity per player, and means the consensus for a lynch is more thoroughly discussed, which is good.

Let's take the already somewhat random early lynches and make them more random by adding (what is in the early stages an) arbitrary criterion? How is this exactly a "good plan"?

Sorry I still don't get it, there was not 50% of the votes places on Incangnitoan?

Pay attention, dumbass.

PL totally overreacts to tajo's suspicion of it. That's so adorably hilarious and worse than what Yosariwen has done.

My suspicions lie firmly in the Pesco Light camp, although I have no clue what other I thinks at the moment. I would not be opposed to a Yosariwen stringing-up at this point, but I think that can wait for now.

Vote: Pesco Light

Please note, as I believe has been said elsewhere, that I will not be signing my posts, nor will other I. We are as one, and one as we are, we have no need to separate our thoughts.

Are you kidding me sweety? I aint voting for PL, because you disguise a fart as some sort of diatribe that is suppossed to be an articulate argument! Lynch scum DUMBASS, not Townies!

Riveting analysis.

Right back at ya sweets...you'll have this game broken in no time with your clever insight.... Keep up the good work genius.

[Yosariwen]

explanation

That's exactly what you're seeing - Wishbone and company asked for an explanation and got one. Are you

really

trying to make a requested response seem scummy?

If reading comprehension is the issue, my point can be summarized as: there was no reason to assume Camn's breadcrumbing came from a town player. Power roles of both alignments have motive to crumb their action, and hitting a power role at random is more likely to hit scum than hitting any play at random.

[J-Scope]

I would bet that there is at least two scum in the red zone and possibly the orange, which is where I'm going to cast a vote for now.

The game hasn’t been going on for that long so I think it’s possible that some early inactivity is not an indication of alignment. Aren’t those numbers from that other game an average of the whole game? Is it possible that some of those lurkers in that game began the game active and decreased their PPD as the game went along?

One area we can make a difference in, before genuine information develops, is activity, which is of the highest importance in this game. Leaving ourselves with players capable of being very active, and less inclined to lurk is essential.

This is why I want the first 1-2 lynches to be lurkers.

Do you still believe this is the best method of selecting lynches? It looks like you are telling the scum how not to be caught. The way you are pushing it before the lurkers are given time to re-appear strongly or weakly looks suspicious.

So I don’t think we should focus on this. If a hydra is scummy and just so happens to have a smaller PPD that’s fine, but the scum tells should come first.

FoS Ortohoops

Hoopla that was a tremendous post and it carries much merit, although I disagree with lynching ANY townie, imo..

to elaborate a bit: I am sure if you are Town you do not want Townies lynched and I will look at lurkers with a a critical eye but my bottom line is I disagree with lynching lurkers.

But do you believe that Hoopla knows lynching lurkers means lynching townies? Do you feel that lynching lurkers will mean lynching townies? It’s odd that you would take a stand that typically does not need to be said, that town don’t want to lynch town.

Something feels a little wierd about J-Scopes post 89.
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 18#1644818
Feels more like he is speculating then deciding on things for themself. Call it a gut suspicion.

What specifically in post 89? The first two paragraphs? My TL;DR point there is I don’t think it was a vig kill.

Define "enough". "Enough", for instance, could be attempting to assassinate the president, or it could just be looking at him funny.

When I said “If someone looks scummy enough, let’s lynch them.” I meant, if 50%+1 people find someone scummy and want to lynch them, they should feel free to do so; in other words, follow the same standards as in a day/night game.

At the time, "outting" Incamn's breadcrumbs had a much higher chance of hitting scum than voting randomly.

But didn't you initially call it a null tell?

hitting a power role at random is more likely to hit scum than hitting any play at random.

Did you have this feeling back then?

[Raging Wishbone]

Hoopla that was a tremendous post and it carries much merit, although I disagree with lynching ANY townie, imo..

to elaborate a bit: I am sure if you are Town you do not want Townies lynched and I will look at lurkers with a a critical eye but my bottom line is I disagree with lynching lurkers.

But do you believe that Hoopla knows lynching lurkers means lynching townies? Do you feel that lynching lurkers will mean lynching townies? It’s odd that you would take a stand that typically does not need to be said, that town don’t want to lynch town.

No, of course not, let me try to preface the base of everything I worte and why I wrote it again. Hoopla brought up a very good comparison imo (War in Heaven)..., my comments were a direct response to what she wrote because she has knowledge of that game. Seven of us here played in that game (me, her, Rofl, Tajo, Nuwen, DGB, and Seraphim). I do not think Hoopla meant she wanted to lynch Townies, I was trying to make a point that this is what happened during the course of that game with the lynch all lurkers, arguments over play strategy, ect.... and if it seems odd to you, than please read War In Heaven. That is why I am taking this stand and feel strongly about it.

[Ortohoops]

I would bet that there is at least two scum in the red zone and possibly the orange, which is where I'm going to cast a vote for now.

The game hasn’t been going on for that long so I think it’s possible that some early inactivity is not an indication of alignment. Aren’t those numbers from that other game an average of the whole game? Is it possible that some of those lurkers in that game began the game active and decreased their PPD as the game went along?

The numbers I displayed here for everyone was the amount of posts each individual player made while they were alive. Once they died, I didn't record the rest of the game days in their PPD.

One area we can make a difference in, before genuine information develops, is activity, which is of the highest importance in this game. Leaving ourselves with players capable of being very active, and less inclined to lurk is essential.

This is why I want the first 1-2 lynches to be lurkers.

Do you still believe this is the best method of selecting lynches? It looks like you are telling the scum how not to be caught. The way you are pushing it before the lurkers are given time to re-appear strongly or weakly looks suspicious.

So I don’t think we should focus on this. If a hydra is scummy and just so happens to have a smaller PPD that’s fine, but the scum tells should come first.

In normal games without such frequent scum kills or stringent deadlines, I still take potential helpfulness/their ability as town etc. into deciding a lynch. As more and more definitive information seeps into the game, the less and less these other variables come into play when choosing my lynch candidate.

In a game like this though, missing the first 48 hours of this game, is the equivalent of missing the first 2 weeks in a 3 week game. Sorry, but activity

does

matter in this game, and if players either a) can't commit enough time, or b) wish to only post a couple times a day, I'd rather lynch them now while the alignment probabilities have slim margins.

[Ortohoops]

It looks like you are telling the scum how not to be caught.

Actually I'll address this part of the post too. That may be true, but it's also beneficial for the town if scum are posting frequently. Do you really think you can generate accurate reads on players if they're only posting say ~8 times per action phase?

[Yosariwen]

At the time, "outting" Incamn's breadcrumbs had a much higher chance of hitting scum than voting randomly.

But didn't you initially call it a null tell?

Here's the distinction - the

motivation

behind breadcrumbing was a null tell (any power role has the motivation to crumb his or her results, regardless of alignment). As an independent body, nothing Incamn did made him/her more likely to be scum than town or town than scum.

Probability

dictates that killing a random power role will hit scum more often than killing any other random player. This isn't a tell; it's a ratio observation independent of the crumbing itself.

hitting a power role at random is more likely to hit scum than hitting any play at random.

Did you have this feeling back then?

Mmhm, but I wanted to run the idea by my hydra partner prior. We came to the consensus that although the chance of a mislynch is lower, the cost to town is far higher. But that rough probability is a good item to keep in mind when approaching any future claims.

Pointing out Incamn's crumbs was a bad move in retrospect, yeah, and I apologize - but I didn't see any reason why the act of crumbing was anything but neutral.

[Trotsky]

hoopla's war in heaven analogy was nice and all, but posting it defeats any purpose. posting it later on would have given it a lot more accuracy.

Sorry I still don't get it, there was not 50% of the votes places on Incangnitoan? Alright so Nuwen made a huge MISTAKE? As far as my meta and previous experiences playing with her, she seems to think she is incapable of mistakes? I'm not sure I am buying this?

this tone is so fake.

add post 119, 121 and 127 to the picture and you get a scummyperson. i count appeal to emotion, buddying up, strawmanning, ad hominem and a strong and apparently baseless conviction in pescolight's townliness. war in heaven people, was walt wishbone's posting so annoyingly scummy? i doubt these posts are raging rabbit, unless he had a severe concussion. (yes, i am korts atm and haven't consulted rofl about this)

[whoami8]

Trotsky never answered my questions.

Ortohoops making a lot of sense.

ZMD is playing scared.

Pescolight doesn't ping scum. Voting mod is expected.

Frog dodging arguing for the sake of arguing. My other head said this is normal regardless of allignment.

I do not have my period.

[Trotsky]

It's so important to you that you're asking twice for an answer. But you didn't vote them? Why?

early game irony>>>early game omgus

Why are you still fishing for this after you yourself making a joke of the action?

i don't like my questions being left unanswered

[Ortohoops]

I largely agree with Hoops about lurkers. However I think we should be forgiving towards those who up until now may not have posted as much as others. Now that everyone's had a chance to read and should be acquainted with the anti-town nature of not contributing at a rapid pace, we can put more pressure on lurkers.

The scummiest stuff so far:

Was that a modkill?

Ftr, I wasn't asking about his reference to beta at all. If you'd been looking at the 2 quotes, the common factor was the suspicion of J-scope and me. The first one I assumed was still RVS content and it being brought up again in the second, I then took it as serious.

Pesco

Why would you think it was a mod-kill to begin with? This looks like an attempt to imply that you cannot be associated with/responsible for the kill because you didn't know if it was a mod or scum kill.

FoS: Pesco Light

Frog Dodging's posts so far:

Post 80 says...nothing really. It is typified by this:

So far I see a lot of stupid and very little scummy.

Post 82 and 84 again, clearly, say nothing of genuine relevance to the current game.

Let's see... Scopey adores bandwagons, Pesco Light is made up of gibbering idiots as well as Ortohoops, Death is made of people who over-logic things, and Zmd is made up of dumbass who needs to pay attention and Zazie. That explains all 5 votes fairly well.

So, what, you are explaining away all their motivations as dumb/misguided town? If not what was the point of this paragraph?

Incamnito suddenly dying is interesting, more interesting is the fact that sex, PL, Ortohoops, A&B, and even the other me completely ignored analysis of this post in favour of discussing Incamnito's death.

I don't like the inherent WIFOM of this. If you think analysing the wagon will yield useful information (despite this apparently contradicting your previous paragraph), you are intrinsically assuming the scum kill was not made to

deliberately

paint these players in a bad light.

Additionally, while suggesting we should be analysing the wagon, you then proceed to make absolutely no moves towards doing so yourself. It also goes without saying that you also give no reasons why exactly Yosariwen is scummy.

Post 126 is two lines of abuse, not even disguised.

Thus far Frog Dodging has given us a whole lot of nothing (which is specifically scummy considering the time-dependent nature of the game).

Unvote

Vote: Frog Dodging

[whoami8]

It's so important to you that you're asking twice for an answer. But you didn't vote them? Why?

early game irony>>>early game omgus

Why are you still fishing for this after you yourself making a joke of the action?

i don't like my questions being left unanswered

Did you/do you find them scummy?

[Zmd]

Do you read much or is it me? I still dont get it Yosey said at 50% we auto lynch someone. We were not at 50%, he had five votes on him... so I just don't get it? I mean your statement that I bolded... is that a rule of the game or your opinion? Right on, the rest of it, meh, fair enough.

You had asked about when we should be lynching. My opinion was that we should play as normal and lynch when we have a good lynch candidate.

Look at Kmd for instance - he's just made his 3rd post of the game. A wishy-washy assessment of play, and has now left. Normally it wouldn't matter, but in the time he's gone, that's ~20% of this action phase. Being online and being active matters, just as much as forcing others to be active does.

This is why I want the first 1-2 lynches to be lurkers.

I left? I went offline and slept last night. I'll be around for the game.

If the lurkers are the top scum candidates, then sure, we can lynch them. I'm not going to make this a contest to spam the thread though.

So I don’t think we should focus on this. If a hydra is scummy and just so happens to have a smaller PPD that’s fine, but the scum tells should come first.

QFT

Do you really think you can generate accurate reads on players if they're only posting say ~8 times per action phase?

Depending on the posts, I'd say you could.

ZMD is playing scared.

Scared?

-----------------------

Sens, you are usually more active than this. Why does your hydra only have 2 posts?

[whoami8]

Yeah, scared. You're now trying to be active, but with very little scum hunting. That last post, only the last sentence could maybe be described as scum hunting. And even then, it's a really weak probe.

[Apples and Banana]

I get the same impression as Ortohoops as it pertains to Frog Dodging. In a game where activity is important, and several have talked of lynching the lurkers, FD's posts are all basically the definition of active lurking. Summarizes events, doesn't take stances where they can avoid them, and pointing out what he calls a bunch of stupid town plays.

KMD - I'm not usually that much more than a post-a-day player, really, and I'm the only one whose posted thus far.

[Ortohoops]

I get the same impression as Ortohoops as it pertains to Frog Dodging. In a game where activity is important, and several have talked of lynching the lurkers, FD's posts are all basically the definition of active lurking. Summarizes events, doesn't take stances where they can avoid them, and pointing out what he calls a bunch of stupid town plays.

KMD - I'm not usually that much more than a post-a-day player, really, and I'm the only one whose posted thus far.

You're going to have to up the ante if you want stay alive any more than a couple of days. I'm following my other half's logic, but will switch to lurkers if they need more encouragement. A&B, you need to give more to this game.

[whoami8]

I get the same impression as Ortohoops as it pertains to Frog Dodging. In a game where activity is important, and several have talked of lynching the lurkers, FD's posts are all basically the definition of active lurking. Summarizes events, doesn't take stances where they can avoid them, and pointing out what he calls a bunch of stupid town plays.

There are others that are "actively lurking" just as much, if not more so. Why single out Frog Dodging?

KMD - I'm not usually that much more than a post-a-day player, really, and I'm the only one whose posted thus far.

It's not like you didn't know what you were signing up for. Step it up.

[whoami8]

Yeah, scared. You're now trying to be active, but with very little scum hunting. That last post, only the last sentence could maybe be described as scum hunting. And even then, it's a really weak probe.

God I'm good at this.

[Frog Dodging]

I don't like the inherent WIFOM of this. If you think analysing the wagon will yield useful information (despite this apparently contradicting your previous paragraph), you are intrinsically assuming the scum kill was not made to deliberately paint these players in a bad light.

Why would you assume something before you have reason to assume it? I'd say that Yosariwen pointing out the breadcrumb thus signaling to the scum "HEY-O POWER ROLE HERE" is a much better reason for the kill than to frame 5 people on a bandwagon.

Additionally, while suggesting we should be analysing the wagon, you then proceed to make absolutely no moves towards doing so yourself. It also goes without saying that you also give no reasons why exactly Yosariwen is scummy.

I already broke down the likely reasons for all five votes in one of my posts.

explanation

That's exactly what you're seeing - Wishbone and company asked for an explanation and got one. Are you

really

trying to make a requested response seem scummy?

If reading comprehension is the issue, my point can be summarized as: there was no reason to assume Camn's breadcrumbing came from a town player. Power roles of both alignments have motive to crumb their action, and hitting a power role at random is more likely to hit scum than hitting any play at random.

No, I'm not trying to make a requested response seem scummy. I actually think that you're trying to play victim by asking that question there. Hint - the poor me act doesn't fly with me, so you're not getting too far. I doubt the poor me act flies with other me as well, so really, not helping.

You're also basically saying that Incamn was guilty until proven innocent, which is completely ass-backwards here. Power roles of both alignments have motive to crumb their action, yes. However, pointing it out will either tell the scum what they already know or say "HEY-O POWER ROLE HERE" to them.

Incamn's crumbing is neutral for now, as there are multiple data roles than can be of either alignment and would benefit from early crumbs. Currently a null tell.

Explain "Incamn's crumbing was a null-tell" v. "Incamn's crumbing was more likely to be scum than town" to me, please.

We're going to

Unvote, vote: Yosariwen

at this time.

[whoami8]

I get the same impression as Ortohoops as it pertains to Frog Dodging. In a game where activity is important, and several have talked of lynching the lurkers, FD's posts are all basically the definition of active lurking. Summarizes events, doesn't take stances where they can avoid them, and pointing out what he calls a bunch of stupid town plays.

There are others that are "actively lurking" just as much, if not more so. Why single out Frog Dodging?

Also like to note that this is A&B parroting Ragining Wishbone. And I disagree that FD is actively lurking.

[Frog Dodging]

sex w/ shafteds wife club's explanation for why he was talking about how incam is town doesn't hold water. If he was worried about the wagon, the sum total of his defense of incam should not have been "I'm leaning town in Incamn." Yet this is what (s)he is implying here: "Yes why in god's name would I want people to stop bandwagoning an obv townie in a speed game? Shame on me!" Why pressure? Because it doesn't look right, that's why. Why the hell does he suddenly and smarmily declare that he

knew

incam was town after incam dies? It's a big fat "I TOLD YOU SO" and looks worse when you consider the timings based on what Yosariwen has pointed out so far. I don't like this hydra.

Yosariwen is also guilty of calling incam town but not acting on it, but with the lack of 'I told you so,' I can't take that so seriously. nuwen's logic simply is bleh - to out the power role but not to attack it invites the worst of both worlds.

We're clearly not actively lurking. That's such a massively idiotic suggestion that it barely deserves consideration.

[Zmd]

Yeah, scared. You're now trying to be active, but with very little scum hunting. That last post, only the last sentence could maybe be described as scum hunting. And even then, it's a really weak probe.

I usually am pretty active in my games. Zaz said she'd do most of the posting so I could focus on other things for a while, but now she has limited access, so I will be doing most of the posting, and our activity level will increase.

And I gave my reads in the post before that. Very little has changed in such a small amount of time.

[whoami8]

explanation

That's exactly what you're seeing - Wishbone and company asked for an explanation and got one. Are you

really

trying to make a requested response seem scummy?

If reading comprehension is the issue, my point can be summarized as: there was no reason to assume Camn's breadcrumbing came from a town player. Power roles of both alignments have motive to crumb their action, and hitting a power role at random is more likely to hit scum than hitting any play at random.

Your argument is off. You specifically stated "investigative" power role when outing the breadcrumb. Those breakdown 2:1 in towns favor.

unvote vote:Yosariwen