DHSDSM alpha: Game Over.

[whoami8]

I don't get it. What does Portishead have to do with Zmd? It is an inside joke? I want answers!

Are you that dense?

Incamn's crumbing is neutral for now, as there are multiple data roles than can be of either alignment and would benefit from early crumbs. Currently a null tell.

I didn't read it as a crumb and I still don't upon rereading the post. What do you mean? He was talking about a music album causing him to vote a player, as if the player would understand the vote because of the music album.

In addition to Yoswen pointing out the breadcrumb, we have J-Scope fishing to understand it. One or both need to die faster.

[J-Scope]

Seven of us here played in that game (me, her, Rofl, Tajo, Nuwen, DGB, and Seraphim). I do not think Hoopla meant she wanted to lynch Townies, I was trying to make a point that this is what happened during the course of that game with the lynch all lurkers

But do you think that strategy is less reliable in this game? Do you find it odd that from her experience in that other game she should realize this too?

That may be true, but it's also beneficial for the town if scum are posting frequently. Do you really think you can generate accurate reads on players if they're only posting say ~8 times per action phase?

No I don’t. I think it’s good not to let anyone you think is lurking get away with it; you should keep posting their name and offense and see how they react. But from your proposition I thought you were trying to get the lurkers lynched first before trying other methods of getting them to post and getting that better read. I understand and agree with your comparison that missing the first 48 hours of this game is like missing 2 weeks.

Actually, that was Nuwen, and I'm not sure why she did. I rather wish she hadn't, considering; I feel that it was a mistake.

Mmhm, but I wanted to run the idea by my hydra partner prior. We came to the consensus that although the chance of a mislynch is lower, the cost to town is far higher. But that rough probability is a good item to keep in mind when approaching any future claims.

These two don’t add up. How can they both be true?

FoS: Yosariwen

Yes great idea for the town aligned compulsive vig to kill a semi outed tracker 3 pages (?) into the game. They're playing to their A game for sure.

That was just Yosariwen’s interpretation but where was it seen in the original crumb?

-------------------

A&B’s post 155 is a lot of needless defense and no scumhunting. I’m seeing a bad trend from that hydra. s/he’s defending the inactivity but not doing anything about it. I’d expect town to own up and try to scumhunt as much as they can.

Get in the game.

FoS: A&B

Unless Yosariwen is SK and Nuwen tried to out a PR to the scum? Gah, the thing makes such little sense that my Occam's Razor sense is getting a major error message.

I guess that’s a possibility but just speculation. I’d rather think in terms of scum or not scum.

Right now I am suspicious of Ortohoops, Yosariwen, and A&B.

[Raging Wishbone]

I'm not at all suspicious of Yosariwen, the crumbing, while a bad move, feels like unnatural play for scum (especially smart scum), and while I've never played with Nuwen, Yos feels like his town self thus far.

[J-Scope]

In addition to Yoswen pointing out the breadcrumb, we have J-Scope fishing to understand it. One or both need to die faster.

I wasn't fishing because I hadn't bought the crumb theory. In both those posts I thought Incamn had voted for ZMD because of Portishead. Incamn explicitly said:

Vote ZMD

why?

I was listening to Portishead...

Which I took to mean that ZMD also listens to Portishead or should relate to the joke vote on some level. If anything, in the back of my mind I was wondering if "Portishead" was an inside joke or some clue to another game they had played together in. So I wanted a reaction from them that might confirm something along those lines.

[Ortohoops]

Actually, that was Nuwen, and I'm not sure why she did. I rather wish she hadn't, considering; I feel that it was a mistake.

Mmhm, but I wanted to run the idea by my hydra partner prior. We came to the consensus that although the chance of a mislynch is lower, the cost to town is far higher. But that rough probability is a good item to keep in mind when approaching any future claims.

These two don’t add up. How can they both be true?

FoS: Yosariwen

Wow, that's actually a good catch. I want to hear what team Yosariwen has to say about it.

[whoami8]

Jesus what does it take to lynch this scum already? Speed Game people!

[Ortohoops]

I'm basically convinced now. Sexy shaft is right, lets move it.

Unvote, vote: Yosariwen

[whoami8]

And WTF is J-scope doing FOSing people instead of voting?

[Saunt Adelaus]

Votecount as of post 182:

Yosariwen:

3

:Frog Dodging, sex w/ shafteds wife club, Ortohoops
Frog Dodging:

1

:Raging Wishbone,
Raging Wishbone:

1

:Zmd
Pesco Light:

1

:Apples and Banana,
Apples and Banana:

1

:Zaphod Beeblebrox,
sex w/ shafteds wife club:

1

:PoketheAlpaca,

not voting:

4

:Death the Hogfather, J-Scope, Pesco Light, Yosariwen

while 12 are alive, 7 votes will lynch

[Pesco Light]

In a game like this though, missing the first 48 hours of this game, is the equivalent of missing the first 2 weeks in a 3 week game. Sorry, but activity does matter in this game, and if players either a) can't commit enough time, or b) wish to only post a couple times a day, I'd rather lynch them now while the alignment probabilities have slim margins.

Let the vig take care of lurkers.

At the time, "outting" Incamn's breadcrumbs had a much higher chance of hitting scum than voting randomly.

But didn't you initially call it a null tell?

Here's the distinction - the

motivation

behind breadcrumbing was a null tell (any power role has the motivation to crumb his or her results, regardless of alignment). As an independent body, nothing Incamn did made him/her more likely to be scum than town or town than scum.

Probability

dictates that killing a random power role will hit scum more often than killing any other random player. This isn't a tell; it's a ratio observation independent of the crumbing itself.

hitting a power role at random is more likely to hit scum than hitting any play at random.

Did you have this feeling back then?

Mmhm, but I wanted to run the idea by my hydra partner prior. We came to the consensus that although the chance of a mislynch is lower, the cost to town is far higher. But that rough probability is a good item to keep in mind when approaching any future claims.

Pointing out Incamn's crumbs was a bad move in retrospect, yeah, and I apologize - but I didn't see any reason why the act of crumbing was anything but neutral.

Playing the setup isn't going to catch scum more effectively than solid scumhunting and I'm quite sure this is not unreasonable to expect from the experienced players in this game.

Why would you think it was a mod-kill to begin with? This looks like an attempt to imply that you cannot be associated with/responsible for the kill because you didn't know if it was a mod or scum kill.

I was viewing the post from a phone, I couldn't see any text formatting. There was nothing in the mod post that explicitly stated what kind of kill it was and I wanted clarification. The fact that my prior questions were being avoided by reason of talking about the beta game, made it a possibility that it was a mod-kill for overstepping.

Yeah, scared. You're now trying to be active, but with very little scum hunting. That last post, only the last sentence could maybe be described as scum hunting. And even then, it's a really weak probe.

I usually am pretty active in my games. Zaz said she'd do most of the posting so I could focus on other things for a while, but now she has limited access, so I will be doing most of the posting, and our activity level will increase.

And I gave my reads in the post before that. Very little has changed in such a small amount of time.

And very little has come from you overall. More than 100 posts into the serious business of the game and you can't say anything useful?

The one looked mostly jokey and the second perhaps more serious, like a mostly RVS vote turning into something more serious - but, asking for reasons why so serious, the answers would be within the category of things not to be discussed lest Mod kill. I can sort of see why you might have been thinking that way, so I'm content to drop it itself as a point of strong attack on contention on my part. However, I do still want you to clarify how the vote there was an 'obv-prod' vote.

The point I pushed (I felt) was not difficult for them to respond to. Give a satisfactory response, get unvote.

And WTF is J-scope doing FOSing people instead of voting?

Agreed.

Summary of stances and opinions including my last post and up to now:

Vote Yosariwen
FoS J-scope and Zmd

Pesco

[Frog Dodging]

talking about "effectively having no lynched" and how massively we're behind is misleading. We can catch up lynches if we lynch quickly. So let's lynch yosariwen quickly, plzkthx.

Now, the main point I feel the need to really stress out here is less talking, more lynching

These two things are not mutually exclusive.

I am very much against rushing a lynch or two, especially when the reasoning is that based on one previous speed game run, 3 out of four of the scum corresponded to one particular stereotype. Furthermore, the idea that its ok because days 1 and 2 we're random lynching anyway is just grade a bullshit - the reason later days are more informative is because we have spent time and effort discussing the day 1 and two lynches. I've lost track of the amount of times scum have been caught because they've just wagoned onto the easy lynches all the time with no independent opinion - but that's the sort of analysis we can only make if we're playing the game properly and not mucking around with fancy plans.

Now, the main point I feel the need to really stress out here is

less talking, more lynching

. Seriously. With a new scumkill every 84 hours (that isn't in any way balanced out by the town PRs, especially given the possible SK), we should be hurrying this up substantially. 84 hours without a lynch is the equivalent of voting no lynch in a regular game day. This is the one game where it's more important to be quick and decisive than to think things through from every possible angle. This phase ends in two hours so it's too late, but during the next one I think at least two lynches are in order to make up for it.

What you need to remember is that lynching doesn't end the day here. It therefore costs the town much less. What does "end the day" is doing nothing. So less talking, more bloodshed people!

Frankly, a lynch is not guaranteed to be a good thing for the town. It's only useful if we lynch in an informed manner, rather than a crazed and hectic one

Hoopla's long post is right on target, though I'm pretty sure at least one scum will implement this and go way active. So we shouldn't just lynch people based on number of posts, but rather based on whether or not they prove helpful in bringing this game forward. Scum has a huge incentive to stall this game, which could be achived by starting longass arguments, for example, even better than by lurking.

I don't see why we're assuming scum will play a carbon copy of the other game anyway - nor do I see any indication that that was what DGB did in war in heaven. If we say that scum are only x, y and z type of people, then it's way too easy for scum just to avoid the prescribed scumtells and never be lynched. We need to stop thinking so much about this, frankly. It's really very simple. We play mafia, just at twice/thrice/quicker the normal pace.

Thus far I see Frod Dodging being useless, arguing against Orthoops' plan (meaning supporting slowing down the game, meanig bad) and then after being called out on it immediately upping the aggressive with a vote on Yosariwen, who thus far feels strongly town. That's definitely good enough for a

vote: frog dodging

.

The idea that because we don't support ortohoops' plan means we are in favour of slowing down the game is bullshit. And we haven't been useless. We've called out Yosariwen, we've got some interesting stuff on SWSWC. We've pointed out idiocy where we've seen it.

I'm not at all suspicious of Yosariwen, the crumbing, while a bad move, feels like unnatural play for scum (especially smart scum), and while I've never played with Nuwen, Yos feels like his town self thus far.

This is just wrong.

Whether or not it is poor scumplay depends on what they were trying to achieve. If, for example, they were a scum power role trying to get another scum to send in the kill because they wanted to use their power role instead, it would have been a good play. If they were fishing for confirmation of incam's role by looking for his/her reactions, it would have been a good play. Or hell, it could just be poor scumplay - and it makes more sense as poor scumplay than as poor town play. Why the hell are they searching posts for breadcrumbs anyway? I know I didn't see it (and actually, I still don't - my partner claims he does, though. Not really important any more.)

Honestly, no town has "ooh, a power role tell, let's point it out" as their first reaction on seeing a breadcrumb. They tend to keep it to themselves - town are always scared of outing power roles. That's a constant. Careless scum, however, may well blurt it out.

Yos is also not his usual self. I would expect yos to be slightly more angry at this point in his wagon rather than conciliatory. I would also have expected him to start scumhunting by now rather than questioning people. I would definitely expect him to have called out the lurkers, and I would definitely expect him to be more actively involved in the game rather than just sitting around asking questions. It's no good asking questions if you don't respond to the answers.

[Apples and Banana]

PBPA of Yosariwen:

The timer counting down the end to Action Phase 1 is off - it's set to 12:00 on 3-30-09 instead of 4-30-09. Link to fixed countdown.

thanks for the correct link. Editing the OP now. ~Adel

Not game-related, but here for the sake of having all the posts.

I don't get it. What does Portishead have to do with Zmd? It is an inside joke? I want answers!

Are you that dense?

Incamn's crumbing is neutral for now, as there are multiple data roles than can be of either alignment and would benefit from early crumbs. Currently a null tell.

First real post of the game, and it points out a breadcrumb. I've been trying to figure out if there are any possible scum motivations for doing this, by looking at the role list, and the only one I can think of is trying to get Incamn killed by the Mafia/SK (other than her), if there is one. Although there is also the possibility she was just trying to set a trend of being able to heavily scutinize any Power claim.

Vote:Trotsky

Hasn't posted yet.

-Yos

Lurker vote, when, as pointed out, several other hydras hadn't posted either. Quite coincidental, in hindsight, that he happened to pick someone that flipped Scum, given how many people had yet to post.

Vote:Trotsky

Hasn't posted yet.

-Yos

i like that you singled me out. why so protective of sex w/ shafted's wife, raging wishbone, frog dodging, zmd, apples and banana, i wonder?

Because in this stage, the main point of any vote should be to get a reaction and get the game moving, try to get something going (especally when we're on a very short clock, like this game) and singling one person out is more likely to get a useful reaction then going after 5 people at once.

Explains why one was singled out, though it still remains that the person picked supposedly for the sake of picking someone flipped Scum. With Yos having an almost 'perfect' answer to Trotsky's question, its also very possible this line of questionning had been planned in advance.

Yoswarian

: What did you hope to accomplish with this post? (other than mocking J-scope, that is)

Incamn's crumbing is neutral for now, as there are multiple data roles than can be of either alignment and would benefit from early crumbs. Currently a null tell.

wow just had sex with the wife ironically enough. No time for a post but have to say this deep south thing is exciting. Damn shame incamn was being so obviously townie.

So Yos noticed the tracker breadcrumb. why did you point it out so blatantly?

Actually, that was Nuwen, and I'm not sure why she did. I rather wish she hadn't, considering; I feel that it was a mistake. That being said, in a game like this, if a scum thought he or she had seen a town power role tell, the right move wouldn't be to make a big deal about it in thread; it would be to not say anything in thread and just quietly kill the person without making a big point of mentioning you figured out their role, especally since it looks like scum can both day talk and submit a kill at any time.

-Yos

You say "it looks like scum can both day talk and submit a kill at any time." Shouldn't you

know

that to be the case, since you were Scum in Adel's previous Deep South game, Crackers! Mafia, where we were scumbuddies and could daytalk? Why would you think Adel would change the rules for this one, especially when Town won that game? And the part about not outing it in-thread is WIFOM.

unless she was further fishing for confirmation of said breadcrumb

I guess. That's be a really high risk scum gambit with a really low chance of a payoff, though, especally with good players like incognito.

Ortohoops: Horray for lurker lists. Thanks for doing all that work, I'm usually the only one who bothers to make a lurker list and I'm glad to see someone else doing it. I agree with you, lurking in this game is incredibly anti-town and scummmy, more so then in a normal game.

Any specific reason you voted for Zmd out of those 4 people with 2 posts? Just curious; I'll probably check them all out for myself when I have a chance and vote for whichever one of them looks the worst, beause I agree with your logic here.

Raging wishbone: I quoted that because the second half of rule 6 talks about the rules for kills, not because of the part about lynching.

And yeah, since Incamn was actually a tracker, I think it was a mistake for Nuwen to mention in thread her thoughts about the possible breadcrumb; if Incamn had been scum instead, it wouldn't have been a mistake.

As for your last few sentances; I have no idea if she thinks she's "incapable of making mistakes", and I'm not sure what that has to do with my comments on her play.
-Yos

Comments on the lurker list, says he'll go back and look at the 4 hydras with only two posts, which still hasn't been done. Asks if there's a specific reason ZMD was voted for, out of the four lurkers, when he had chosen Trotsky 'for the sake of choosing someone to focus on' earlier in the game. I also don't see why the fact that Incamn was actually a trakcer has anything to do with whether calling out the crumb was a mistake or not. Whether Incamn flipped Town or Scum shouldn't change the validity of the play to call out the breadcrumb.

@Yosariwen and anyone else who cares to chime in... Did Nuwen out Incamnito as a Tracker?

Yes and no. I pointed out Incamn's breadcrumbs because power role identification in this game has a very high reward versus risk. There are 3 scum among 14 players (~79% chance of mislynch with vig, ~70% chance of mislynch with sk). However, there are 3 possible scum power roles to 5 possible town (no greater than 40% chance of mislynching,

if all five are in the game and at least 2 scum power roles exists

. If less than five town power roles, chance of hitting scum by outing power roles increases).

At the time, "outting" Incamn's breadcrumbs had a much higher chance of hitting scum than voting randomly. However, I wasn't prepared to lynch on a fluid series of probability predictions. I said the breadcrumbing action itself was equally town and scum motivated - this is important to remember for all future breadcrumbing and claims; all remaining town power roles have a scum/anti-town counterpart with the similar inclinations to crumb/claim.

I am

not endorsing

that the town seeks out power roles to lynch; Incamn's isolated crumbing caught my eye, particularly after J-scope's overtly clueless reaction.

-Nuwen

Its almost never a good idea to base lynches in Mafia off of math probabilities, especially when it is all based off of uncertain data. There is more re-enforcing of the opinion that all Power claims are (if I'm reading this right) more likely to be Scum than Town. She finishes off the post by saying that she's not looking to lynch all Power roles, even though she explicitly pointed out a page 2 Power crumb.

explanation

That's exactly what you're seeing - Wishbone and company asked for an explanation and got one. Are you

really

trying to make a requested response seem scummy?

If reading comprehension is the issue, my point can be summarized as: there was no reason to assume Camn's breadcrumbing came from a town player. Power roles of both alignments have motive to crumb their action, and hitting a power role at random is more likely to hit scum than hitting any play at random.

You can't possibly be claiming that Town is better of lynching claimed Power than lynching unclaimed people, are you? Especially since, now that you've pointed it out, Scum may very well decide not to crumb their Power, if any. This isn't a game of lynching based on math odds, and it seems you're trying to play everything you've done off as being statistically correct.

At the time, "outting" Incamn's breadcrumbs had a much higher chance of hitting scum than voting randomly.

But didn't you initially call it a null tell?

Here's the distinction - the

motivation

behind breadcrumbing was a null tell (any power role has the motivation to crumb his or her results, regardless of alignment). As an independent body, nothing Incamn did made him/her more likely to be scum than town or town than scum.

Probability

dictates that killing a random power role will hit scum more often than killing any other random player. This isn't a tell; it's a ratio observation independent of the crumbing itself.

hitting a power role at random is more likely to hit scum than hitting any play at random.

Did you have this feeling back then?

Mmhm, but I wanted to run the idea by my hydra partner prior. We came to the consensus that although the chance of a mislynch is lower, the cost to town is far higher. But that rough probability is a good item to keep in mind when approaching any future claims.

Pointing out Incamn's crumbs was a bad move in retrospect, yeah, and I apologize - but I didn't see any reason why the act of crumbing was anything but neutral.

Right, but you're still missing the point. Even though the act of crumbing iitself may be neutral (though I disagree on that note, which I'll explain in a second), pointing out every crumb you see is akin (though worse) to just asking for a mass-claim on Day 1, because in your view claimed Power is more likely to be Scum than a random person. And I still think crumbing is slightly pro-Town, since Scum that don't have a role will force themselves to lock into a claim very early if they want to crumb, which may backfire or become irrelevant if the set-up then stops that claim from being passable.

Why would you assume something before you have reason to assume it? I'd say that Yosariwen pointing out the breadcrumb thus signaling to the scum "HEY-O POWER ROLE HERE" is a much better reason for the kill than to frame 5 people on a bandwagon.

Why are you assuming it was a scum kill, Frog? Especally considering that there were 5 votes on the wagon, I wouldn't at all be surprised if the Incamn kill was a compulsive vig (remember, if there is a compulsive vig, that role has to kill every single action phase, every 96 hours.)

I would assume the Compusive Vig has enough sense to at least wait until later in the action phase to send in a kill, if the kill is just being sent it to avoid having a random choice happen.

---

Overall, very scummy vibes. Outing breadcrumbs based on probabilities and statistics is not good play, and I'd even say is scummy play, for reasons outlined above: that it alerts the other anti-Town faction (if applicable), and that it sets a precedent for scrutinizing and lynching claimed Power. This makes even more sense if Yosariwen is an SK that is setting up a Compulsive Vig claim, and killing anyone that was wagoned to a claim (since Nuwen thinks its statistically correct, and Yos says a Compulsive Vig could very well kill just because the target was wagoned). Then again, the clear connection to Trotsky is best explained if they are scumbuddies. Add in the fact that Yos claims he's usually tough on lurkers, but has yet to follow up on Ortohoops' lurker list, and I think the Yos wagon has a lot of merit.

Vote: Yosariwen

That's 5, and lynch-2.

[Yosariwen]

Why would you assume something before you have reason to assume it? I'd say that Yosariwen pointing out the breadcrumb thus signaling to the scum "HEY-O POWER ROLE HERE" is a much better reason for the kill than to frame 5 people on a bandwagon.

Why are you assuming it was a scum kill, Frog? Especally considering that there were 5 votes on the wagon, I wouldn't at all be surprised if the Incamn kill was a compulsive vig (remember, if there is a compulsive vig, that role has to kill every single action phase, every 96 hours.)

Because I have enough faith in humanity to assume that a compulsive vig of sound mind wouldn't kill a breadcrumbed power role who was acting quite town for no other reason than they "might be scum"?

There were 5 votes on Incamn at the time. Clearly, quite a few people really thought Incamn was scum, and it's not unreasonable at all to think that a compulsive vig, who has to kill someone every 96 hours no matter what, might kill someone they think is scum.

Plus now we've just confirmed that it was the scum kill, unless the scum has decided that killing one of their own power roles would be a good idea for today.

Yes. NOW the town has enough infromation to know that it was, in fact, a scum kill. However, from the way you worded that post, you seemed to KNOW it was a scum kill earlier in the day, at a time when only scum could possibly have known that for a fact, which is why I asked you about it.
-Yos

[Yosariwen]

Actually, that was Nuwen, and I'm not sure why she did. I rather wish she hadn't, considering; I feel that it was a mistake.

Mmhm, but I wanted to run the idea by my hydra partner prior. We came to the consensus that although the chance of a mislynch is lower, the cost to town is far higher. But that rough probability is a good item to keep in mind when approaching any future claims.

These two don’t add up. How can they both be true?

FoS: Yosariwen

Timing. When I made that post, I had talked with Nuwen yet, and I had no idea what she was thinking when she questioned Incomn's role. We later had a detailed mafia theory discussion about it.

She had come to the conclusion, before the game started actually, that the right move in this kind of game is to lynch anyone who claims a role or who even hints at a role, becuase a high percentage of people who have roles are scum, and there's of course also a chance that somone who claims or hints at a role is lying about it and also scum. She apparently discussed this with Adel some time ago. So she was not at all reluctent to out someone who seemed to be breadcrumbing a role right from the very start of a game, when there's really no good reason for a pro-town tracker to do so.

I really, really don't agree with that conclusion, at all; pro-town roles are way to important to just lynch anyone who claims a role, and I tend to go in the opposite extreme if anything; a game like this can actually be "solved" sometimes by confirming as many people in role-related ways as you can. I think her theory ideas were wrong, and that she made a big mistake.

Still, let me repeat my defense again her; there is absolutly no reason, at all, that a scum who thinks he found a pro-town role would make a big deal about it in thread and then daykill the person themselves shortly afterwards. That would be just horrible, horrible scum play, and there is no advantage to it.

[whoami8]

Yes. NOW the town has enough infromation to know that it was, in fact, a scum kill. However, from the way you worded that post, you seemed to KNOW it was a scum kill earlier in the day, at a time when only scum could possibly have known that for a fact, which is why I asked you about it.
-Yos

Great so now both heads of your hyrda are fishing for power roles.

[Yosariwen]

Yes. NOW the town has enough infromation to know that it was, in fact, a scum kill. However, from the way you worded that post, you seemed to KNOW it was a scum kill earlier in the day, at a time when only scum could possibly have known that for a fact, which is why I asked you about it.
-Yos

Great so now both heads of your hyrda are fishing for power roles.

Ok, now that's just silly. We know a vig didn't kill Incamn now, so how could I possibly be fishing for power roles?

What I'm "fishing" for is scum, or at least for someone who seemed to have information only a scum could have. That was why I asked the question, and it looks rather scummy to me that Frog attacked me because I pointed out a possible scum slip on his part.

[whoami8]

Yos don't play dumb. You know your comment directed at FD cuts both ways.

[Zaphod Beeblebrox]

I don't know who is scum, but I'm pretty sure Yosariwen isn't one. Everything adds up and is credible. I'm pretty sure sexyshafty is town, too, he/she is his/her town self.

*DGB*

[whoami8]

Also I pointed out the same thing BEFORE FD did. Why not berate me for it?

[Yosariwen]

Vote:Trotsky

Hasn't posted yet.

-Yos

Lurker vote, when, as pointed out, several other hydras hadn't posted either. Quite coincidental, in hindsight, that he happened to pick someone that flipped Scum, given how many people had yet to post.

Protip: Voting for a scum is not a scum tell.

Vote:Trotsky

Hasn't posted yet.

-Yos

i like that you singled me out. why so protective of sex w/ shafted's wife, raging wishbone, frog dodging, zmd, apples and banana, i wonder?

Because in this stage, the main point of any vote should be to get a reaction and get the game moving, try to get something going (especally when we're on a very short clock, like this game) and singling one person out is more likely to get a useful reaction then going after 5 people at once.

Explains why one was singled out, though it still remains that the person picked supposedly for the sake of picking someone flipped Scum. With Yos having an almost 'perfect' answer to Trotsky's question, its also very possible this line of questionning had been planned in advance.

Dude, I'm Yosarian. I've got a perfect answer for every question.

Seriously, anything I do, I know why I do it and can explain it in as much detail as is desired. It's silly of you to suggest that somehow me being able to explain why I do the things I do somehow is suspicious.

Yoswarian

: What did you hope to accomplish with this post? (other than mocking J-scope, that is)

Incamn's crumbing is neutral for now, as there are multiple data roles than can be of either alignment and would benefit from early crumbs. Currently a null tell.

wow just had sex with the wife ironically enough. No time for a post but have to say this deep south thing is exciting. Damn shame incamn was being so obviously townie.

So Yos noticed the tracker breadcrumb. why did you point it out so blatantly?

Actually, that was Nuwen, and I'm not sure why she did. I rather wish she hadn't, considering; I feel that it was a mistake. That being said, in a game like this, if a scum thought he or she had seen a town power role tell, the right move wouldn't be to make a big deal about it in thread; it would be to not say anything in thread and just quietly kill the person without making a big point of mentioning you figured out their role, especally since it looks like scum can both day talk and submit a kill at any time.

-Yos

You say "it looks like scum can both day talk and submit a kill at any time." Shouldn't you

know

that to be the case, since you were Scum in Adel's previous Deep South game, Crackers! Mafia, where we were scumbuddies and could daytalk? Why would you think Adel would change the rules for this one, especially when Town won that game? And the part about not outing it in-thread is WIFOM.

Um, scum can apparently daytalk because it says they can in the scum role PMs posted in the mod's post. Putting the word "apparently" into sentances like that is basically a force of habit by this point, since if I didn't, you probably would have called THAT a scumtell.

As for your last sentance; you can't just wave the WIFOM wand to make arguments you don't like go away. If our actions don't make sense for a scum to do, then you can't call them scummy; that's what scummy means, is an action that scum is more likely to do then a town.

unless she was further fishing for confirmation of said breadcrumb

I guess. That's be a really high risk scum gambit with a really low chance of a payoff, though, especally with good players like incognito.

Ortohoops: Horray for lurker lists. Thanks for doing all that work, I'm usually the only one who bothers to make a lurker list and I'm glad to see someone else doing it. I agree with you, lurking in this game is incredibly anti-town and scummmy, more so then in a normal game.

Any specific reason you voted for Zmd out of those 4 people with 2 posts? Just curious; I'll probably check them all out for myself when I have a chance and vote for whichever one of them looks the worst, beause I agree with your logic here.

Raging wishbone: I quoted that because the second half of rule 6 talks about the rules for kills, not because of the part about lynching.

And yeah, since Incamn was actually a tracker, I think it was a mistake for Nuwen to mention in thread her thoughts about the possible breadcrumb; if Incamn had been scum instead, it wouldn't have been a mistake.

As for your last few sentances; I have no idea if she thinks she's "incapable of making mistakes", and I'm not sure what that has to do with my comments on her play.
-Yos

Comments on the lurker list, says he'll go back and look at the 4 hydras with only two posts, which still hasn't been done. Asks if there's a specific reason ZMD was voted for, out of the four lurkers, when he had chosen Trotsky 'for the sake of choosing someone to focus on' earlier in the game.

I think I made clear that I liked Ortohoops's play here. Asking for additional information can only help in a case like this.

I also don't see why the fact that Incamn was actually a trakcer has anything to do with whether calling out the crumb was a mistake or not. Whether Incamn flipped Town or Scum shouldn't change the validity of the play to call out the breadcrumb.

Wait...what?

If Incamn had been a scum who was trying to breadcrumb tracker early on so they could use that to their advantage later, then calling it out and putting the spotlight on Incamn early would have been an AWESOME pro-town play.

Its almost never a good idea to base lynches in Mafia off of math probabilities,

Why not? It's often a very good idea, especally if that's all you have to go on.

You can't possibly be claiming that Town is better of lynching claimed Power than lynching unclaimed people, are you?

That was her belief at the time, yes.

Right, but you're still missing the point. Even though the act of crumbing iitself may be neutral (though I disagree on that note, which I'll explain in a second), pointing out every crumb you see is akin (though worse) to just asking for a mass-claim on Day 1, because in your view claimed Power is more likely to be Scum than a random person. And I still think crumbing is slightly pro-Town, since Scum that don't have a role will force themselves to lock into a claim very early if they want to crumb, which may backfire or become irrelevant if the set-up then stops that claim from being passable.

Only if the crumb is noticed. If a scum can plant a crumb early on and no one notices it, then the scum can use that crumb to set up a fake claim later in the game; or can choose to not do so, if it's to their advantage. Which is another advantage to pointing out a crumb, especally if it's a crumb that seems like one a pro-town person wouldn't really want to make.

Really; why would a pro-town tracker feel the need to crumb at the very part of day 1? I still don't get that, personally; considering it's a semi-open game, the odds of a tracker claiming tracker and not being believed seems very small to me.

Again, I wouldn't have pointed it out, because I'm especally paranoid about outing power roles and outing roles in general in basically any setup. Nuwen thought she had pro-town reasons for doing so, though, and there really is no reason for a scum to do that.

Your SK speculation dosn't make sense either, since a SK could just as easily daykill as the a mafia member could; trying to direct the kill of the other scum group in thread, on day 1, just seems like it would be an absurdly suicidal gambit to me, for very little real benifit.

[Yosariwen]

Yos don't play dumb. You know your comment directed at FD cuts both ways.

Ah...ok, I see what you mean.

Dosn't that go for most scum slips, though? One of the best ways to find a scum is that scum have information the town dosn't, and it's an easy mistake for a scum to give that away in thread; but there's always a risk in looking for that kind of scum tell that the person with more infromation then they "should" have is some kind of town role.

[whoami8]

Yos if you're town I really feel for you. Your hydra partner put you in a bad spot due to, what I agree with you, is a bad theory position. But you have to see it from an outside observers perspective. We can't let something like this slide. It's too glaring to just say "well it doesn't make sense as scum...look a birdie!" There's a very decent chance that scum would make that play.

I appreciate your further attempts at scum hunting, but you need to go.

And while you may be right in general about "too much knowledge", anyone in their right mind would not take incamn's death as that from a vig. It's patently ridiculous, and feels like you trying to point out a shiny object to distract us. Your A&B analysis does give me some town vibes but overall it's not enough. We're already behind schedule. We got lucky with the vig/crosskill but we can't continue to count on those types of events. A lynch needs to happen at least once every three days and you are easily the scummiest player ATM. If you're town go down with a bang and leave what info you can for us to work with.

[Yosariwen]

It's too glaring to just say "well it doesn't make sense as scum...look a birdie!" There's a very decent chance that scum would make that play.

Again, why would scum make that play?

The only reason you've given was "role fishing", but that dosn't really make sense. If a scum spots a pro-town role planting a breadcrumb (ESPECALLY if they think it's a pro-town information role), the right play would basically always be to either just quietly kill the person, or find some other excuse to vote and attack that person and see if you can run them up to a claim.

If you point out the breadcrumb, you actually lower their chances of being lynched in the near future, and at the same time dramatically increase how bad you'll look if they get killed and come up as a pro-town power role. "Point out the breadcrumb, get no additional information, then kill the person" would be about the worst possible move a scum could do in that situation.

There's no way pointing out the breadcrumb and then killing Incamn makes sense as a scum move, at all. I really can't understand why you think a scum would want to do that.

[whoami8]

You argue that Nuwen did it because power roles are more likely scum, yet no vote incamn was cast and she states herself it's a nulltell. Furthermore as I've pointed out INFORMATION powerroles are NOT more likely scum, as Nuwen alluded to. I don't recall you ever adressing this point as I brought it up. Then there's the discrepency as to whether or not you discussed this ahead of time. Sorry but you just look like scum talking your way out of a bad play.

I ask you again what kind of townie points out a freaking tracker breadcrumb because it's a nulltell? There's even less motivation for that.

[Yosariwen]

You argue that Nuwen did it because power roles are more likely scum, yet no vote incamn was cast and she states herself it's a nulltell.

As she explained, nulltell, as in "could be power role post or scum post." Which still means more likely scum then a random lynch would be.

Furthermore as I've pointed out INFORMATION powerroles are NOT more likely scum, as Nuwen alluded to. I don't recall you ever adressing this point as I brought it up.

One sec, discussing this with Nuwen right now, since she just got on AIM...

The "data role" is not what you think it is; she just meant a role with information, not an info role. (It's ok you were confused; so was I, until I just asked her). Actually, she thought Incamn was breadcrumbing doctor, she just didn't want to be that specific.

Here, our AIM conversation we're having right now.

ArtherDent (5:59:13 PM): What, exactally, was the crumb you spotted? Could you explain it to me?
mercuriala (5:59:33 PM): Why? I was listening to Portishead, the new album, and I was thinking that it is just as progressive for TODAY as the old albums were FOR THEN.
Like, logically, Portishead(Third) is to NOW as Portishead(Dummy) was to 1994. You understand.

And FOS Yosariwen for artificially inflating thier post count.
mercuriala (5:59:53 PM): The odd capitalization is what first caught my attention.
ArtherDent (6:00:44 PM): Ok
mercuriala (6:01:11 PM): I suspected this was a breadcrumb of doc protection on the third player, ZMD, whom she oddly voted for.
mercuriala (6:01:40 PM): Didn't even cross my mind that it was a tracker crumb, since there would be no results to report yet

She thought Incamn was tryign to breadcrumb doctor who protected ZMD (which didn't really make sense since they also voted ZMD). This would mean that either Incamn was a pro-town doctor, a scum doctor, or some other scum trying to set up a breadcrumb to fake a doc claim later.

Again, I wouldn't have revealed the crumb, because I'm totally paranoid about revealing any pro-town roles under almost any circumstances. You are basing your conclusion on an incorect assumption, though. Plus, you seem to be assuming that a scum would never fake a breadcrumb to set up for a fake claim later.

Then there's the discrepency as to whether or not you discussed this ahead of time.

What discrepency? We did not discuss any of this before she made that post, nor did we ever say that we did. If we had, I would have told her not to post that. I'm not sure what you're getting at here.

I ask you again what kind of townie points out a freaking tracker breadcrumb because it's a nulltell? There's even less motivation for that.

She never thought it was a tracker breadcrumb.