DHSDSM alpha: Game Over.

[ortolan]

I was actually incorrect about there being more unattributed kills.

Anyway, correct me if I'm wrong but the scum don't get to make another kill for a few days?

If we can get a consensus of most scummy to least scummy then we can just quicklynch down the list repeatedly. As long as the scum are in the first five and we do this before the next action phase starts we auto-win. How does this sound to people?

[Raging Wishbone]

I was actually incorrect about there being more unattributed kills.

Anyway, correct me if I'm wrong but the scum don't get to make another kill for a few days?

If we can get a consensus of most scummy to least scummy then we can just quicklynch down the list repeatedly. As long as the scum are in the first five and we do this before the next action phase starts we auto-win. How does this sound to people?

Yeah, they don't get another kill 'till the next action phase. And that sounds too risky. I think we can afford letting the scum choose one more kill in favor of more in depth discussion rather than just loads of quicklynching based on an arbitrary list, especially since we have no one even close to being confirmed at this point.

[ortolan]

quicklynching based on an arbitrary list

determined by voting does not equal arbitrary, certainly not more than any other method we could use of deciding who to lynch.

and correct me if I'm wrong here, but logically, and mathematically, just waiting for the scum to make more kills does not appear to stand us in better stead.

It seems there can only be one scumbag left, as implied by the mod's opening post (the mafia faction

is

three player, there cannot be an SK as there was a compulsive vig, and there were in fact no kills to account for another killing faction. We can kill everyone up until there's only 2 people left alive, in which case the scum, if still alive, will endgame the townie.

If we lynch down the suspects list at present, we have 5/7 of a chance of hitting scum based on random lynching (I would hope town skill would raise this probability). If, however, we wait for the scum to make another kill the chance then becomes only 4/6, or 2/3. One scum night-kill later and it's 3/5. Thus it is better to start lynching down the list sooner rather than later. Does anyone have any issues with this probabilistic reasoning?

Now I acknowledge that if some people don't post in a while there may be practical issues with this quicklynching process- if for example a new action phase begins when we're in the middle of lynching. This is why for pragmatic reasons we may to need to wait until the next action phase to start doing it, in which case it will only yield 4/6, or 2/3 of working. However this probability is still better than 3/5.

Additionally I don't see how waiting for the scum to make another night-kill is going to help us determine who they are in this setup. They will presumably pick targets to best WIFOM us/give us no information.

J-Scope and nyb have yet to claim (funny because they're both my biggest suspects now, replacing RW, before I re-read). They really, really ought to do so. We may not yet need to consider my plan, but I would still like comments on it.

[KaleiÐoscøpe]

I'm sorry I haven't been paying much attention. I'll try tomorrow or I'll need replacery

[Saunt Adelaus]

Start of Day 3

~~~

Votecount

not voting:

7

: Apples and Banana, J-Scope, nyballosulgniirkps, Ortohoops, Raging Wishbone, Zaphod Beeblebrox, Zmd

while 7 are alive, 4 votes will lynch

edit: "11" changed to "7"

[J-Scope]

We're vanilla.

Looking at the rise of the Yosariwen wagon I don't like ZMD's participation. They waited until the wagon was an inevitable lynch and then they placed a hammer.

They started out calling Yos a neutral read ever after ZMD recorgnized that Yos-Nuwen had outed a breadcrumb.

The only other mention of Yos was that they thought Trotsky and Yos were more likely scumpartners than Trotsky and Zaphod. There was no elaboration or explanation; that isn't even a good suspicion because it is a relative read using Zaphod as a constant.

So ZMD lurks until a point in the game where the voices for the Yos wagon have become very strong, most notably sex with shaft.ed, and they drop the hammer without a single question uttered or a single point debated.

It is probable that Yos had been measuring support while he was defending, and would have told his scumbuddy if and when to bus.

Today they are pushing the point that scum couldn't possibly have bussed. Instead of scum hunting, this point looks more like a defensive act because it attempts to place themselves as the most townie looking with the most visible Yos vote (the hammer).

Their scumhunting was very weak day 1, and trying to avoid commenting on the Yos wagon in multiple posts. They were trying to lay low instead of scumhunt on day 1, which makes me think they are really scum.

Vote: ZMD

[SensFan]

Wait...ZMD...did you say you didn't target

anyone

Day 1?

[ortolan]

well, vanilla means they don't get a night action and therefore can't target anyone, yes.

What do you have SensFan? I hope it's a night action, I was going to vote Zmd anyway.

While I've played with Kmd in countless games I don't think he's ever been scum in any of them. I've played with ZazieR before where she was a proficient assassin (won the game) in assassin in the hospital.

That said I find their constant contribution of pretty much non-content early in the game scummy as well as their failure to take strong stands on anyone, scummy.

As springlullaby (I assume) said earlier I don't like their constant defences against lurking.

I also dislike the "updating people's relative standings" thing they do every post. I think I've seen Kmd do it before but I believe that was when he was a mime (paired jester) in Paris Mafia. These sorts of player-lists are usually frowned upon as being easily posted by scum to feign activity. Additionally I find it wierd that they

both

seemed to do it every post for a period of time (or else it was just one of them posting). Seems wierd that they'd play so constantly with one another, almost premeditated.

When I re-read I felt substantially better about Pesco Light's play. None of Pesco's (they seemed to be the majority of contributions) posts said anything unjustified.

I will say I'm pretty neutral on Zaphod. I obviously find it hard to read DGB But Plum hasn't seemed to be as useful/pro-town as she will openly tell you she usually looks. This might be something to do with the general higher standard of play this game, I'm not sure.

nyb still needs to claim and I will vote Zmd pending SensFan's announcement.

[ortolan]

constantly = consistently above

[nyballosulgniirkps]

Ok, Kison got back to me.

1. Claim: Vanilla.

2. We agree about the lynching down the line idea, 5/7 is better than any odd we can get afterward.

My order would be:
Zaphod, ZMD, Raging, J-Scope then Apples

J-Scope makes it back on the list because with confirmed 3 scum I agree bussing is unlikely, which means the non vote is a working scumtell again. Apples is last because, while the unprovoked claim is actually a good point, the fact that he asked doc/watcher to attract the kill is something I can't wrap my head around, I also predict that his claim is gonna be unverifiable. Ortho don't make the list because I think they have been town so far, and the lynching down the line idea is town also: you've got to be very confident people aren't gonna lynch you to suggest it as scum.

Kison said he would post today, we seem to agree anyway, so

Vote Zaphod

.

Conditions on my vote:

1. My Zaphod vote is interchangeable with any of ZMD, J-Scope and Raging.
2. I will not vote for Apples till the people in the above list have been lynched.
3. I will not vote for Orthoo.

Let's do this.

[nyballosulgniirkps]

Actually, Othoo, whom are you voting for? Why aren't you voting?

[ortolan]

waiting for A&B to claim their results. This should be interesting, and currently it looks like as long as we lynch A&B and Zmd we're guaranteed to win, because Sens already softclaim-contradicted Zmd's vanilla claim

[Raging Wishbone]

I am gonna hold off voting until I have a chance to speak with my partner and Apples and Bananas posts what he has on ZMD. I do think they have made their way through the game; lurking for the most part and only posting to keep up appeareances. I am gonna go back and reread FrogDodge in isolation because I want to see if the following post indicates ZMD was one of his top suspects...

Action Phase 1 we tracked Yosariwen, who strangely enough we got no result on. Also, I've discussed this with my partner and we've realized there's almost no downside to claiming who we're going to track next. ZMD, if you are a non-doc power role, do not target us. If you're scum and you target us, there's a good chance we'll see you.

Also, reduce the suspect pool etc. etc.

Vote Death the Hogfather

ciao!

After that, I would as well consider a vote for Zaphod pending a discussion with my partner.

@Apples and Bananas - Please post what you know soon; I believe a new action period begins tomorrow. - ww

[Raging Wishbone]

determined by voting does not equal arbitrary, certainly not more than any other method we could use of deciding who to lynch.

and correct me if I'm wrong here, but logically, and mathematically, just waiting for the scum to make more kills does not appear to stand us in better stead.

It seems there can only be one scumbag left, as implied by the mod's opening post (the mafia faction is three player, there cannot be an SK as there was a compulsive vig, and there were in fact no kills to account for another killing faction. We can kill everyone up until there's only 2 people left alive, in which case the scum, if still alive, will endgame the townie.

If we lynch down the suspects list at present, we have 5/7 of a chance of hitting scum based on random lynching (I would hope town skill would raise this probability). If, however, we wait for the scum to make another kill the chance then becomes only 4/6, or 2/3. One scum night-kill later and it's 3/5. Thus it is better to start lynching down the list sooner rather than later. Does anyone have any issues with this probabilistic reasoning?

Now I acknowledge that if some people don't post in a while there may be practical issues with this quicklynching process- if for example a new action phase begins when we're in the middle of lynching. This is why for pragmatic reasons we may to need to wait until the next action phase to start doing it, in which case it will only yield 4/6, or 2/3 of working. However this probability is still better than 3/5.

Additionally I don't see how waiting for the scum to make another night-kill is going to help us determine who they are in this setup. They will presumably pick targets to best WIFOM us/give us no information.

In a purely mathematical way, you're right, but you aren't taking into account the effect good scumhunting has on the probability of lyncing scum. If you make a list and just lynch down it, maybe the first to lynches will reflect our opinion on the game, but the next ones will both be based on a rather arbitrary ranking of "who I think is more town than who", and won't take into account the results of the previous lynchings we just made. I'm very afraid of the 2/7 chance the scum we choose will be one of the last two on the list (I also think it's very likely we won't get all the lynches done in time before the next action phase - especially if you take twilights into account, meaning if the scum is placed third on the list he could easily be able to pull off a win as well, so it effectively becomes more like 3/7, or almost 50%) and we'll just blindly hand him the victory. I'd rather hurt our odds a little bit in the eyes of blind probability in favor of thinking more before every lynch. Again, that's not to say we shouldn't be in a hurry, I think this game should be over before scum manages to squeeze in more than one kill, or two at the very worst.


In accordance with my earlier vote that wasn't counted due to twilight,

vote Zmd

.

-RR

[Zmd]

Looks like it to me. Please claim without delay. We also need claims from nyb Raging and Zmd

Already claimed vanilla here.

My top two suspects are Zaphod and Zmd, and I think I'm leaning Zmd now. He's been actively lurking the entire game, hammered Yos after he became an obv lynch, and keeps coming up with these entirely arbitrary scumlists that prove he isn't actually trying to find scum. For one thing, me and Walt have been his top suspect for a while now, but none of his "list updates" change our score or say hardly anything about our recent posting. I don't see a townie letting his top suspect just sit there at the top of the list without further attacks/analysis. He's just comfortable voting for the guy he thinks would be a likely mislynch.

Vote Zmd.

-RR

What you call active lurking is actually the fact that I got a job and pretty much have only posted here at night.

Hammering Yos isn't a town tell, but why's it a scum tell?

I'm trying to find scum. The lists are to show my stances. Obviously, I've seen you as scum for most of the game. How am I not looking for scum?

If we can get a consensus of most scummy to least scummy then we can just quicklynch down the list repeatedly. As long as the scum are in the first five and we do this before the next action phase starts we auto-win. How does this sound to people?

Let's lynch Raging Wishbone first. If they are town, we'll go to JScope or Zaphod. If we do it quickly enough, we have 4 players left. One is a claimed tracker. One is scum. Not a bad scenario.

(I originally posted a RW vote here. I removed it because of Sens' softclaim of me targeting someone.)

Yeah, they don't get another kill 'till the next action phase. And that sounds too risky. I think we can afford letting the scum choose one more kill in favor of more in depth discussion rather than just loads of quicklynching based on an arbitrary list, especially since we have no one even close to being confirmed at this point.

Why would we WANT the scum to kill when we can take away all of their kills if we move quickly enough? Why not control the rest of the deaths as a town? I'm with Ort on this one.

Looking at the rise of the Yosariwen wagon I don't like ZMD's participation. They waited until the wagon was an inevitable lynch and then they placed a hammer.

Actually, I "waited" until I caught up on the game.

Today they are pushing the point that scum couldn't possibly have bussed. Instead of scum hunting, this point looks more like a defensive act because it attempts to place themselves as the most townie looking with the most visible Yos vote (the hammer).

Who is my top suspect? Did they vote Yos?

Pushing the easy wagon now?

Their scumhunting was very weak day 1, and trying to avoid commenting on the Yos wagon in multiple posts. They were trying to lay low instead of scumhunt on day 1, which makes me think they are really scum.

I NEVER "try" to lay low. Regardless of alignment. The only exception is the game where I was a beloved princess and I hated trying to lay low. I'd even say I spoke up too much near the end of that game. I completely suck at trying to lay low (based on just one game of course, but still). As scum, I try to control a game as much as possible. See the recently finished game, Mini 733. See Futurama (a mini. I forget the number.)

Wait...ZMD...did you say you didn't target

anyone

Day 1?

I am vanilla. I didn't target anyone. If you say otherwise, that's straight up suicide. Even if I am lynched, I'll flip vanilla, and you are next dead. If you say I targeted someone, I will accept my own lynch because it wins the game immediately after.

That said I find their constant contribution of pretty much non-content early in the game scummy as well as their failure to take strong stands on anyone, scummy.

I've been pretty verbal about my stances on RW and on you.

I also dislike the "updating people's relative standings" thing they do every post. I think I've seen Kmd do it before but I believe that was when he was a mime (paired jester) in Paris Mafia. These sorts of player-lists are usually frowned upon as being easily posted by scum to feign activity. Additionally I find it wierd that they

both

seemed to do it every post for a period of time (or else it was just one of them posting). Seems wierd that they'd play so constantly with one another, almost premeditated.
.

Actually, I don't think I did that in Paris Mafia. Even if I had, I was a mime. So I did what I thought was scummy. If I thought it was scummy, why would I do it as scum.

And Zazie made our first two posts. The rest have been me.

waiting for A&B to claim their results. This should be interesting, and currently it looks like as long as we lynch A&B and Zmd we're guaranteed to win, because Sens already softclaim-contradicted Zmd's vanilla claim

^This.

Even if he backs off of it now, that's pretty suspicious.

--------------

Do NOT lynch me until Sens posts. I don't want him backing off of this.

[Zmd]

I believe I'm at L-1 btw.

[Zaphod Beeblebrox]

2. With one tracker (confirmed by sex's flip) out and one roleblocker down, town can play follow the tracker and force scum to hunt the doc (if they exist). Which is a very ideal situation all around.

The "if they exist" bit is the crucial part here - I'm not sure why in the world you assumed it was the case or why two claimed Trackers wouldn't be a good thing in that case anyway. Juxtaposed with your first clause of having not thoroughly assimilated the information in the rules, I'm not sure what to make of this sort of mistake - how possible was this scum trying to throw suspicion on a dangerous claimed Tracker, and how possible it was just another mistake in thinking.

FOS you guys, however you spell it

- Nevermind, my analysis of the Yosariwen wagon's evolution has pinned you as not likely scum; I have more likely fish to fry.

He's just comfortable voting for the guy he thinks would be a likely mislynch.

determined by voting does not equal arbitrary, certainly not more than any other method we could use of deciding who to lynch.

The merits of doing this:

1. We don't screw up we win.

2. We screw up we lose the entire game.

3. How not to screw up picking two people to trust as townies?

Plum's first approach

Look at the Yosariwen wagon, choose the two on earliest, then read to confirm whether it was still likely bussing would be one viable appraoch. We have Ortohoops and Apples and Banana. Since after Yosawriwen's lynch my scum gut on A&B has disappeared, then they claimed Tracker (a claim I find fairly believable (breadcrumb looks pretty genuine etc.). Again, bussibussing your last scumbuddy hard early looks very unlikely. I'd even say, from that point, that Nyb is unlikely scum as well (this also, I believe, coincides with DGB's views - she's V/LA, if you recall).

I was going to reread Zmd in isolation first to give myself a better handle on stuff I've missed/not gotten a real feel for, but it seems A&B may have something extremely interested to say which would make that, basically, not an optimal use of time. Right now I plan to rescan from the beginning, especially looking for more info on

a) How the Yosariwen wagon started and evolved

and

b) How my current top proto-suspects played on that wagon

also

c) Any other connections with known scum?

I love this post... Did you really not read that he had been killed? I tend to agree with you speed lynching lurkers is fail, but I do agree with a few others who said this game needs to move quick. I have yet to speak with my partner since this game started yesterday, but for now I am going to unvote...

UNVOTE: Trotsky

Good to be reminded where his random vote was, and the fact that he unvoted for no pressing reason and did not even vote someone else at that time. It's . . . intriguing.

Orto's vote does

not

look like likely scum bussing. Pesco Light's - that's now Nyb - as well. Bit less so, maybe, but still. RW is all over the map, getting pretty involved in the 'who, if anyone, tried to get Yosariwen modkilled?" thread, which I thought was very unproductive, possible RW got so involved to distract from the Yosariwen wagon (his wishy-washy stance has been noted to death, so I won't elaborate much on it now. Suffice to say it was suspect, whatever WW was on).

J-Scope votes, maybe tries to kickstart a wagon on (?) Ortohoops for looking opportunistic in voting Yosariwen. Scum distraction?

Zmd isn't around much where I'm reading right now.

J-Scope continues here to build a case against Orto while Yosariwen is at L-1.

RW is Yos' top suspect when asked for one at L-1. I'd try to fish out what that would say about RW, but it's all - such - deep - WIFOM.

Zmd's vote actually looks like it's quite possible they just weren't around at the time, got back, saw yonder wagon, determined that Yosariwen was scummy, and hammered, esp. not wanting to waste time in this game.

Suspects - if we're doing us some speedlynches, I want this orrder at the moment:

J-Scope
Raging Wishbone
Zmd

Nyb

Ortohoops and A&B are at the bottom. I don't want to get lynched particularly, but with this plan it looks like something that will happen at some point, no point denying it.

Vote: J-Scope

Obviously still waiting anxiously for the conclusion of Apples and Banana vs. Zmd, which may make the above irrelevant.

[J-Scope]

J-Scope votes, maybe tries to kickstart a wagon on (?) Ortohoops for looking opportunistic in voting Yosariwen. Scum distraction?

J-Scope continues here to build a case against Orto while Yosariwen is at L-1.

But I wasn't ignoring the Yosariwen wagon. Since when is trying to look at multiple people a scum tell? And my case on Orto did not have to mean that Yos was town if Orto was scum, so I felt very justified to investigate scummy actions that I thought Orto took.

-I debated them on their idea of lynching all lurkers, myself taking the stand that we should only do that as a last ditch opportunity and not a priority.

-I suspected them from what I saw was a jumpy move onto the wagon. They explicitly said that they wanted to hear defense from Yosariwen, then before Yosariwen had the chance to defend, they decided they were convinced and didn't need to hear his defense. Why wouldn't town wait a little longer? Why say they were basically convinced when a short time ago they said they were not and needed to hear from him? At the time I thought that was scummy and I pushed them on it.

-I continued to ask questions about how they first viewed the crumb to see if I could find inconsistencies. But I was still looking at the Yos wagon and pointed out that Yos was using appeal to authority. I was on Yos and Orto simultaneously.

Where was I trying to downplay Yosariwen's actions? Where was I defending them? All I can see is the points where I attacked them.

[nyballosulgniirkps]

Apples and Bananas - Tracker
Ortohoops - Vanilla
Zaphod Beeblebrox - Vanilla
Zmd - Vanilla
Raging Wishbone - Vanilla
J-Scope - Vanilla
nyballosulgniirkps - Vanilla

@Apples and Bananas - if you have a contradicting result on Zmd, please let us know so we can put this game to rest. He claimed vanilla so that is the equivalent of claiming non-action on the night in question.

I'm content with lynching either Zaphod or Zmd at this point and (at the discretion of my partner) will move as necessary. Also believe the tracker claim - the breadcrumbs make sense and look genuine. I also doubt Ortohoops is scum, so that should make my "list of five" fairly obvious.

[Raging Wishbone]

Me and my partner are in two different parts of the world and we have not been able to have too many discussions other than leaving notes, however, at this time I am going too...

unvote: ZMD

I thought Zmd's post seemed geniuine and sincere. I think the discussion between these two and the specific comment of A & B's claim on ZMD is an important discussion to be had.

@Apples and Bananas - Please post what you have on ZMD ASAP! Also please post who you have tracked so far this game... Dude you are posting in other threads, however this is the one where time is of the essence! Scum get another kill at some point today. Please post your thoughts and dont try and slow this game down.

FOS: Apples and Bananas

@Zaphod - I have thought long and hard about this ever since DGB wrote that she is thinking of leaving mafiascum because of games... I don't know you that well, but you have played in my last two games Lovermultiball which was four months and War In Heaven which was two months, and I really enjoyed playing with you. I have been wishy-washy about your alignment in this game, BUT...

If you say the reason you are going to leave mafiascum is because you get accused of being scum when you are town.... Well then I would rather let you win then not be able to play with you again.

If we all do decide to play the take the two most Townies to end game... I wanna give Zaphod a free pass there win or lose... I mean come on does anyone else want to see her leave Mafiascum? Even if we lose we will win because she will stay right? meh, she gets to sleep with herself at night winning this way.

@Hoops - You are too town right now in everyones opinion - One of two things is gonna happen next - you are gonna be scums next kill or you are scum... So please make all your final thoughts known asap. I have thought you are town the entire game except that one post "with novacaine"... my partner I think does have some concerns about your alignment.

Before ZMD and Apples and Banana have their conversation these are the three players I think should go to end game (Hoops, Zaphod, and either ZMD or Apples and Banana after they have their discussion and we figure out which one lied)

THIS GAME HAS SLOWED way to much, in my humble opinion! Lets please pick up the pace. - ww

[ortolan]

SensFan has been posting elsewhere without posting in this game (something which would require one minute simply to tell us exactly what his results are).

His question to Zmd about night one actions makes no sense- Zmd claimed vanilla, he cannot have a night action on any night, if he claimed to be a vanilla and SensFan had an action on any night there

could not

be any other conclusion than that Zmd was scum.

xofelf has also been posting elsewhere on site.

I am about to vote for Apples & Bananas.

[Raging Wishbone]

SensFan has been posting elsewhere without posting in this game (something which would require one minute simply to tell us exactly what his results are).

His question to Zmd about night one actions makes no sense- Zmd claimed vanilla, he cannot have a night action on any night, if he claimed to be a vanilla and SensFan had an action on any night there

could not

be any other conclusion than that Zmd was scum.

xofelf has also been posting elsewhere on site.

I am about to vote for Apples & Bananas.

Absolutely agreed, Apples and Bananas made that post for a reason... To me it read like he had an Epiphany (or maybe trying a gambit) and was gonna nail ZMD's balls to the wall and blow this game apart... Regardless, they know our time constictions, they know and we all know they will be lynched next if they are not scum, so why not post here and help us end this game! Why not give us the reads and their tracks because maybe one of us can spot something they have missed... Mostly, I want to see the ZMD v Appleas and Banana discussion because I think it will be enlighting.

I'm not ready to sink one of our power roles if we have one (3 trackers?)..

@A & B - why did you spell trackers - trakcers each time?

@Zmd - Why do you think FrogDodge said he was going to track you next? Why did he die mere hours after he wrote that?

....A & B is pissing me off! I aint gonna vote for him, but I really would like to hear his thoughts soon. - ww

[ortolan]

It's kind of ironic this coincides with him talking in Mafia Discussion about how he likes to fake V/LA

[Raging Wishbone]

It's kind of ironic this coincides with him talking in Mafia Discussion about how he likes to fake V/LA

hmmm... *goes to read* lol

[Raging Wishbone]

That's actually a great thread on Ethics, thanks for pointing that out. I will post there after this game is over...

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 3&start=75

Although to my memory I don't think anyone from the Apples and Banana team said they would have limited access... Again SensFan has been all over this sight today/toinight. I don't think they have an ethics problem per say, I think they may just be scum...

If Zaphod wins as scum I would have a serious Ethics question...but on the otherhand as long as she doens't leave mafiascum who cares, tis just a game. She is a sweety and fun to play with!

Jscope - one of them said they were having vla too...but I have nothing but town reads on them... Meh, they die around the same time as me and RR is we policy lynch anyway, so who cares, lol....

...Damn A & B hopefully will post soon to clear thinga up... I mean there is no semantics error in his post right? He asked a question of ZMD which implied ZMD lied? Therefore, one of them is lying?