DHSDSM alpha: Game Over.


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Post Post #18 (isolation #0) » Sun Apr 26, 2009 2:13 pm

Post by Ortohoops »

Hey gang, I'm ready to start killing.

Vote: Incamnito
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Post Post #23 (isolation #1) » Sun Apr 26, 2009 3:01 pm

Post by Ortohoops »

Incamnito wrote: It is just a little random insight into my life, to go along with my random vote!
I like to share a part of my day with all of you.
Nobody cares about insights into your life.
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Post Post #31 (isolation #2) » Sun Apr 26, 2009 5:55 pm

Post by Ortohoops »

Saunt Adelaus wrote:I'm going to be a little lenient about this at first, but
and is Cross-bussing via the Beta game.
is an example of talking about another game, which is explicitly banned in my rules.

Alpha and Beta are separate games. Within your hydra you can talk about the other game, but you can't talk about the other game in the in the game threads (or in your scum QT thread if your are mafia).
Obviously when one game finishes though, it is then allowed to be talked about in the other, right?
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Post Post #35 (isolation #3) » Sun Apr 26, 2009 11:22 pm

Post by Ortohoops »

Inspired by my hydrabuddy, I would like to suggest (very strongly) we focus on this game over the other for the time being (according to Adel we are allowed to propose this), because time, that most scum-favouring of all game elements, is of the essence here.

Incamnito looks as good as caught-scum.
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Post Post #75 (isolation #4) » Mon Apr 27, 2009 9:10 pm

Post by Ortohoops »

Mod
, I have a question, I don't believe it's explicitely covered in the rules.

What would happen if there were say 8 alive (5 to lynch), a player was at L-1, and a scum kill took place on another player without their vote on that wagon. That would lower the votes required to lynch to 4. Would that also be a lynch, or is there some sort of clause I'm missing?
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Post Post #77 (isolation #5) » Mon Apr 27, 2009 9:35 pm

Post by Ortohoops »

I propose during periods when the town has even numbers, we don't leave players at L-1 for this reason. Any claim to prevent your lynch in this scenario should be done before you're left dangling and susceptable to scum killing someone to drop the numbers.
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Post Post #95 (isolation #6) » Tue Apr 28, 2009 11:45 am

Post by Ortohoops »

Frog Dodging wrote:Lurker speed lynching is fail.
No, this isn't that stupid. This game has been going for ~46 hours. Players should have no excuse for lurking, this is why hydras have been brought in. Scum get to kill every 84 hours, this is a HUGE incentive to lurk, or at least stall the game.

Here's something for you to consider; in Flay's recent WIH theme game, scum were rewarded rage points weekly. There was a clear advantage for scum to delay lynches and generate rage points which could contribute to a town kill. Here is a small list of activity from this game;

--


Posts per day while alive;


populartajo
:
37.4 PPD

Xylthixlm
:
35.9 PPD

roflcopter
:
24.6 PPD

Albert B. Rampage
:
20.56 PPD

DrippingGoofball:
20.04 PPD

Kinetic
:
15.22 PPD

WaltWishbone
:
14.25 PPD

The Fonz
:
12.05 PPD

Seraphim
:
10.92 PPD

Tenchi
:
10.84 PPD

zwetschenwasser
:
8.09 PPD

q21:
7.6 PPD

Hoopla
:
7.00 PPD

Drench/FireStarter
:
6.2 PPD

Nuwen:
6.14 PPD

Juls
:
5.88 PPD

Guiseppe/Yosarian2:
5.58 PPD

Shinnen_no_me:
4.25 PPD

vIQleS
:
3.58 PPD

Cybele/WeyounsLastClone
:
3.45 PPD


Red = Scum.

With the exception of DGB, scum were in the lower portion of this list. And I have no doubt this game will generate a similar spread.

--

In this game, the advantage is even more severe - a kill every 84 hours! You can bet scum will be trying to stall this game. Here's my thinking;

Kill 1 and kill 2 are the times where we have the least information in the game, where the kill is closest to random. This means the percentage between thinking X is more scummy than Y is at it's potential lowest - and we're better off lynching X or Y based on percentages that can be made up in more beneficial areas. One of these areas is activity, and potential helpfulness later in the game. The second quality I've described is not really quantifiable, but ties in well with activity this game. We can't afford to leave a mid and endgame with a high percentage of players inclined to lurk. We either need to up activity signifigantly, or take a chance on lynching lurkers.

Here is an early list of posts per hydra. Remember this game has been going on for more than 46 hours.


sex w/ shafteds wife club
12

Zaphod Beeblebrox
9

Pesco-Light
7

Ortohoops
6

Trotsky
6

Yosariwen
6


J-Scope
5

Frog Dodging
3

Raging Wishbone
3


Apples and Banana
2

Death the Hogfather
2

PoketheAlpaca
2

Zmd
2


I would bet that there is at least two scum in the red zone and possibly the orange, which is where I'm going to cast a vote for now. More importantly though, the town needs to promote a more proactive approach toward activity and discouraging lurking. We need to lynch at least every 84 hours - and if some players can't commit enough time within that period to help orchestrate decent percentage plays, then they need to be eliminated before it screws us over.

tl;dr? Our best percentage play is lynching lurkers now on the basis of early lynches being closest to random. The percentage we may lose is lynching a possibly less scummy player is more than made up in keeping the most active players alive now. This boosts the average activity per player, and means the consensus for a lynch is more thoroughly discussed, which is good.

tl;dr 2: lynch lurkers please.

Vote: ZMD
, I know you two are both active.
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Post Post #103 (isolation #7) » Tue Apr 28, 2009 12:40 pm

Post by Ortohoops »

Yosariwen wrote: Ortohoops: Horray for lurker lists. :) Thanks for doing all that work, I'm usually the only one who bothers to make a lurker list and I'm glad to see someone else doing it. I agree with you, lurking in this game is incredibly anti-town and scummmy, more so then in a normal game.

Any specific reason you voted for Zmd out of those 4 people with 2 posts? Just curious; I'll probably check them all out for myself when I have a chance and vote for whichever one of them looks the worst, beause I agree with your logic here.

I voted Zmd because I couldn't vote for all four. I've seen both Zazie and Kmd active recently, so they have no excuse not to be posting in this game. PokeTheAlpaca would also be an excellent choice; ideally I'd like competing wagons on these two players.
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Post Post #123 (isolation #8) » Tue Apr 28, 2009 2:49 pm

Post by Ortohoops »

Frog Dodging wrote:
Ortohoops wrote:tl;dr? Our best percentage play is lynching lurkers now on the basis of early lynches being closest to random. The percentage we may lose is lynching a possibly less scummy player is more than made up in keeping the most active players alive now. This boosts the average activity per player, and means the consensus for a lynch is more thoroughly discussed, which is good.
Let's take the already somewhat random early lynches and make them more random by adding (what is in the early stages an) arbitrary criterion? How is this exactly a "good plan"?
I believe on D1 in most games over the longrun, the chances of hitting scum between a truly random lynch, and a town comprised of human minds will be relatively equal. More often than not D1 lynches result from a mistake - because you have little other information to go on (meta can play in, but can also be exploited). Mistakes happen by both scum and town.

One area we can make a difference in, before genuine information develops, is activity, which is of the highest importance in this game. Leaving ourselves with players capable of being very active, and less inclined to lurk is essential.

Look at Kmd for instance - he's just made his 3rd post of the game. A wishy-washy assessment of play, and has now left. Normally it wouldn't matter, but in the time he's gone, that's ~20% of this action phase. Being online and being active matters, just as much as forcing others to be active does.

This is why I want the first 1-2 lynches to be lurkers.
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Post Post #131 (isolation #9) » Tue Apr 28, 2009 4:49 pm

Post by Ortohoops »

J-Scope wrote:
Ortohoops wrote:I would bet that there is at least two scum in the red zone and possibly the orange, which is where I'm going to cast a vote for now.
The game hasn’t been going on for that long so I think it’s possible that some early inactivity is not an indication of alignment. Aren’t those numbers from that other game an average of the whole game? Is it possible that some of those lurkers in that game began the game active and decreased their PPD as the game went along?
The numbers I displayed here for everyone was the amount of posts each individual player made while they were alive. Once they died, I didn't record the rest of the game days in their PPD.
J-Scope wrote:
Ortohoops wrote:One area we can make a difference in, before genuine information develops, is activity, which is of the highest importance in this game. Leaving ourselves with players capable of being very active, and less inclined to lurk is essential.

This is why I want the first 1-2 lynches to be lurkers.
Do you still believe this is the best method of selecting lynches? It looks like you are telling the scum how not to be caught. The way you are pushing it before the lurkers are given time to re-appear strongly or weakly looks suspicious.

So I don’t think we should focus on this. If a hydra is scummy and just so happens to have a smaller PPD that’s fine, but the scum tells should come first.

In normal games without such frequent scum kills or stringent deadlines, I still take potential helpfulness/their ability as town etc. into deciding a lynch. As more and more definitive information seeps into the game, the less and less these other variables come into play when choosing my lynch candidate.

In a game like this though, missing the first 48 hours of this game, is the equivalent of missing the first 2 weeks in a 3 week game. Sorry, but activity
does
matter in this game, and if players either a) can't commit enough time, or b) wish to only post a couple times a day, I'd rather lynch them now while the alignment probabilities have slim margins.
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Post Post #132 (isolation #10) » Tue Apr 28, 2009 4:53 pm

Post by Ortohoops »

J-Scope wrote:It looks like you are telling the scum how not to be caught.

Actually I'll address this part of the post too. That may be true, but it's also beneficial for the town if scum are posting frequently. Do you really think you can generate accurate reads on players if they're only posting say ~8 times per action phase?
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Post Post #137 (isolation #11) » Wed Apr 29, 2009 2:50 am

Post by Ortohoops »

I largely agree with Hoops about lurkers. However I think we should be forgiving towards those who up until now may not have posted as much as others. Now that everyone's had a chance to read and should be acquainted with the anti-town nature of not contributing at a rapid pace, we can put more pressure on lurkers.

The scummiest stuff so far:
Pesco Light (72) wrote:Was that a modkill?

Ftr, I wasn't asking about his reference to beta at all. If you'd been looking at the 2 quotes, the common factor was the suspicion of J-scope and me. The first one I assumed was still RVS content and it being brought up again in the second, I then took it as serious.

Pesco
Why would you think it was a mod-kill to begin with? This looks like an attempt to imply that you cannot be associated with/responsible for the kill because you didn't know if it was a mod or scum kill.

FoS: Pesco Light


Frog Dodging's posts so far:

Post 80 says...nothing really. It is typified by this:
Frog Dodging (80) wrote:So far I see a lot of stupid and very little scummy.
Post 82 and 84 again, clearly, say nothing of genuine relevance to the current game.
Frog Dodging (118) wrote:Let's see... Scopey adores bandwagons, Pesco Light is made up of gibbering idiots as well as Ortohoops, Death is made of people who over-logic things, and Zmd is made up of dumbass who needs to pay attention and Zazie. That explains all 5 votes fairly well.
So, what, you are explaining away all their motivations as dumb/misguided town? If not what was the point of this paragraph?
Frog Dodging (118) wrote: Incamnito suddenly dying is interesting, more interesting is the fact that sex, PL, Ortohoops, A&B, and even the other me completely ignored analysis of this post in favour of discussing Incamnito's death.
I don't like the inherent WIFOM of this. If you think analysing the wagon will yield useful information (despite this apparently contradicting your previous paragraph), you are intrinsically assuming the scum kill was not made to
deliberately
paint these players in a bad light.

Additionally, while suggesting we should be analysing the wagon, you then proceed to make absolutely no moves towards doing so yourself. It also goes without saying that you also give no reasons why exactly Yosariwen is scummy.

Post 126 is two lines of abuse, not even disguised.

Thus far Frog Dodging has given us a whole lot of nothing (which is specifically scummy considering the time-dependent nature of the game).

Unvote

Vote: Frog Dodging
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Post Post #142 (isolation #12) » Wed Apr 29, 2009 3:55 am

Post by Ortohoops »

Apples and Banana wrote:I get the same impression as Ortohoops as it pertains to Frog Dodging. In a game where activity is important, and several have talked of lynching the lurkers, FD's posts are all basically the definition of active lurking. Summarizes events, doesn't take stances where they can avoid them, and pointing out what he calls a bunch of stupid town plays.

KMD - I'm not usually that much more than a post-a-day player, really, and I'm the only one whose posted thus far.

You're going to have to up the ante if you want stay alive any more than a couple of days. I'm following my other half's logic, but will switch to lurkers if they need more encouragement. A&B, you need to give more to this game.
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Post Post #161 (isolation #13) » Wed Apr 29, 2009 10:39 pm

Post by Ortohoops »

Wow, nice!

Time to search for links to Trotsky.
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Post Post #163 (isolation #14) » Wed Apr 29, 2009 11:03 pm

Post by Ortohoops »

Trotsky wrote:well a cursory read of this thread has told me yosariwen, incamnito and zaphod are town

i'd vote for frog dodging but my better half apparently already had the right idea

This is an excellent early quote from scum Trotsky calling out three people as town. It's undoubtedly going to be labelled wifom, but I don't think rofl (I presume it was him) wouldn't put in a scumbuddy if he was going to make these early claims.

So, if one were to be scum, who is worth looking at?

Trotsky wrote:
Yosariwen wrote:
Vote:Trotsky


Hasn't posted yet.

-Yos
i like that you singled me out. why so protective of sex w/ shafted's wife, raging wishbone, frog dodging, zmd, apples and banana, i wonder?

Here's an early post worth looking at, which makes it odd he'd put Yosariwen in his early town list.

--

In other news, I'm getting good feelings from SWSWC based on Trotsky's interactions with them, coupled with their proactive posting.

We need to hear more from Hogfather, ZMD and A&B though.
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Post Post #169 (isolation #15) » Thu Apr 30, 2009 4:19 am

Post by Ortohoops »

populartajo wrote: DGb with Hoopla
Why are you doing this?
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Post Post #174 (isolation #16) » Thu Apr 30, 2009 5:02 am

Post by Ortohoops »

populartajo wrote:What rolefishing are you talking about? You really think Yosariwen is scum?
...are you sure you've been reading the game Tajo, you've been very sloppy so far.

As far as the crumb outting goes - doesn't it make sense if they were scum to not mention it and bring it up in the thread. Sure they could have been fishing for confirmation - but risk bringing that much obvious attention to themselves? They're both better players than that. To me, it doesn't look like a smart move for either alignment, but it could be more useful for scum.
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Post Post #179 (isolation #17) » Thu Apr 30, 2009 5:28 am

Post by Ortohoops »

J-Scope wrote:
Yosariwen wrote:Actually, that was Nuwen, and I'm not sure why she did. I rather wish she hadn't, considering; I feel that it was a mistake.
Yosariwen wrote:Mmhm, but I wanted to run the idea by my hydra partner prior. We came to the consensus that although the chance of a mislynch is lower, the cost to town is far higher. But that rough probability is a good item to keep in mind when approaching any future claims.
These two don’t add up. How can they both be true?

FoS: Yosariwen
Wow, that's actually a good catch. I want to hear what team Yosariwen has to say about it.
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Post Post #181 (isolation #18) » Thu Apr 30, 2009 5:36 am

Post by Ortohoops »

I'm basically convinced now. Sexy shaft is right, lets move it.

Unvote, vote: Yosariwen
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Post Post #210 (isolation #19) » Thu Apr 30, 2009 12:17 pm

Post by Ortohoops »

sex w/ shafteds wife club wrote:Yos if you're town I really feel for you. Your hydra partner put you in a bad spot due to, what I agree with you, is a bad theory position. But you have to see it from an outside observers perspective. We can't let something like this slide. It's too glaring to just say "well it doesn't make sense as scum...look a birdie!" There's a very decent chance that scum would make that play.

I appreciate your further attempts at scum hunting, but you need to go.

And while you may be right in general about "too much knowledge", anyone in their right mind would not take incamn's death as that from a vig. It's patently ridiculous, and feels like you trying to point out a shiny object to distract us. Your A&B analysis does give me some town vibes but overall it's not enough. We're already behind schedule. We got lucky with the vig/crosskill but we can't continue to count on those types of events. A lynch needs to happen at least once every three days and you are easily the scummiest player ATM. If you're town go down with a bang and leave what info you can for us to work with.
sex w/ shafteds wife club wrote:Yos I'm sorry but I think you're more likely scum than not. We are already behind the curve in regards to lynching and I'm not spending more time tunneling on you than playing. Furthermore if you are town I think you could be spending your time more fruitfully (though i do realize if you're town right now your primary goal is to avoid your own mislynch).

Bottom line Nuwen needs to get her ass in here and explain herself.

Meanwhile where the hell is Hogfather? Both of his heads are much more active than the hydra.
Sexy shaft, you need to stop feeling sorry, killing scum should make you happy, they're both very competent players. Their actions were bizarre enough for players of their standards - they've had multiple pressing cases against them in areas not even crumb-outing related. It's not like they're being killed off solely for one mistake.

The town needs to finish off this wagon and kickstart a new one soon.
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Post Post #322 (isolation #20) » Fri May 01, 2009 11:47 pm

Post by Ortohoops »

ortolan here
Froggy (145) wrote:Why would you assume something before you have reason to assume it? I'd say that Yosariwen pointing out the breadcrumb thus signaling to the scum "HEY-O POWER ROLE HERE" is a much better reason for the kill than to frame 5 people on a bandwagon.
So you think they are an SK? Otherwise please explain to me why it would not make more sense for them simply to point out the crumb in their quicktopic and then kill.
Froggy (145) wrote:I already broke down the likely reasons for all five votes in one of my posts.
Yer but the point was you explained their votes in terms of "they're all dumbasses" etc. but this implies that the reason they are voting is that they are dumb townies, as opposed to scummy. Yet you still went on to vote Pesco (again having earlier just said they were "weak" rather than scummy).
Froggy (145) wrote:You're also basically saying that Incamn was guilty until proven innocent, which is completely ass-backwards here. Power roles of both alignments have motive to crumb their action, yes. However, pointing it out will either tell the scum what they already know or say "HEY-O POWER ROLE HERE" to them.
I agree with this though.
Froggy (145) wrote:Explain "Incamn's crumbing was a null-tell" v. "Incamn's crumbing was more likely to be scum than town" to me, please.
and this.
Yoswen (150) wrote:Why are you assuming it was a scum kill, Frog? Especally considering that there were 5 votes on the wagon, I wouldn't at all be surprised if the Incamn kill was a compulsive vig (remember, if there is a compulsive vig, that role has to kill every single action phase, every 96 hours.)
Why would you assume compulsive vig over SK anyway? Each appears equally likely to be in the setup. I am wondering whether to interpret this as its own attempt at a crumb.
Raging Wishbone (166) wrote:Thus far I see Frod Dodging being useless, arguing against Orthoops' plan (meaning supporting slowing down the game, meanig bad) and then after being called out on it immediately upping the aggressive with a vote on Yosariwen, who thus far feels strongly town. That's definitely good enough for a
vote: frog dodging
.
Strongly disagree with this.
FoS: Ragin'
The "arguing against Ortohoops plan" is not necessarily true, is an easy target and you don't go into detail. What specifically do you find pro-town about Yoswen also??? Never mind, you later clarify the second part.
Pesco Light (184) wrote:Let the vig take care of lurkers.
You know there is a vig how? What is the rationale behind the kill on Trotsky not coming from an SK?
Froggy (185) wrote:I don't see why we're assuming scum will play a carbon copy of the other game anyway - nor do I see any indication that that was what DGB did in war in heaven. If we say that scum are only x, y and z type of people, then it's way too easy for scum just to avoid the prescribed scumtells and never be lynched. We need to stop thinking so much about this, frankly. It's really very simple. We play mafia, just at twice/thrice/quicker the normal pace.
I agree with this again. Froggy's become quite pro-town in my eyes (and reactions similar to mine).
Froggy (185) wrote:If, for example, they were a scum power role trying to get another scum to send in the kill because they wanted to use their power role instead, it would have been a good play.
Actually, they can day-talk, so they didn't need to declare it in-thread.

I like A&B's 186, especially:
A&B (186) wrote:This makes even more sense if Yosariwen is an SK that is setting up a Compulsive Vig claim
My thoughts exactly.

The other point I will make out power roles is that saying they are equally likely, if truthful to be Mafia as to be town is assuming the principle of insufficient reason- "because there are 3 mafia power roles listed, and 5 town, a power-role is 3/8ths likely to be scum." Now while I actually used this earlier to assume an SK or vig is equally likely in this setup, it's not necessarily wise to do. Just because a mafia power-role can appear in the game, doesn't necessarily mean it's necessarily as likely to appear as another listed town power-role. Especially take into account game balance here.

...and something else I just realised. Nuwen explicitly said that Incamnito's crumb was for an
information
role. None of the mafia power-roles are, in fact,
information
roles.
Yoswen (194) wrote:Um, scum can apparently daytalk because it says they can in the scum role PMs posted in the mod's post. Putting the word "apparently" into sentances like that is basically a force of habit by this point, since if I didn't, you probably would have called THAT a scumtell.
I don't actually like the use of the word "apparently" here either. The opening pms very obviously state that scum can daytalk. There's no reason to use qualifying phrases like "it looks like".
Yoswen (194) wrote:If Incamn had been a scum who was trying to breadcrumb tracker early on so they could use that to their advantage later, then calling it out and putting the spotlight on Incamn early would have been an AWESOME pro-town play.
The point being made here (by Frog I believe) was in fact that the breadcrumb is more likely to have come from town than scum- so if in fact the breadcrumb did turn out to be from scum it still would have been bad play to have pointed it out, because this outcome was less probable than the alternative.
Yoswen (194) wrote: Only if the crumb is noticed. If a scum can plant a crumb early on and no one notices it, then the scum can use that crumb to set up a fake claim later in the game; or can choose to not do so, if it's to their advantage. Which is another advantage to pointing out a crumb, especally if it's a crumb that seems like one a pro-town person wouldn't really want to make.

Really; why would a pro-town tracker feel the need to crumb at the very part of day 1? I still don't get that, personally; considering it's a semi-open game, the odds of a tracker claiming tracker and not being believed seems very small to me.
You basically contradict yourself here. You suggest scum have a decent chance of fake-breadcrumbing/fake-claiming tracker yet suggest there is little reason not to believe a tracker-claim.

I'm still catching up (thanks to Hoops for doing most of the work so far) but right now I'm very very happy with the Yoswen vote. I know people don't like wall o' texts so I'll probably make another post to get up to present.
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Post Post #323 (isolation #21) » Sat May 02, 2009 12:28 am

Post by Ortohoops »

tajo (230) wrote:
Unvote Vote : Sex with shafted.


This is a good wagon.
what
Yos (235) wrote:(keep messing up the alts thing)

On a side note, the fact that whoever attempted to have me modkilled is refusing to admit it is making me more and more convinced that that person is scum. Now, there weren't that many people around and posting at the time; it's possible that someone just stopped by the thread, tried to get me modkilled, and left without posting, though.
I agree with this. However it does not preclude Yos being scum at all. It may simply have been an SK if he is mafia, or a mafia player if he is an SK.

249 by sex w/ is pretty scummy. It's clear
someone
asked whether Yos could get mod-killed. It's not a dead end at all, the only problem is working out who it actually was. I don't see much town motivation in asking for someone who's alignment you are unsure of to be mod-killed.
RW (252) wrote:...and right n this is a good response, although I do disagree with two things. I think it is critical to find out who tried to get Yoso mod killed, if someone did..... however in the end if Yoso does get lynched and flips scum THEN it is a mute conversation.
no it isn't. See above.

I honestly think J-Scope's reasoning for voting us in 267 is pretty weak, especially with all the other drama taking place in the surrounding posts which he could (also) be commenting on.
Yos (278) wrote:You also want to remember, Nuwen is kind of a newbe here. She only has 2 completed games; heck, she couldn't even play as an IC yet. She was awesome in WIH, of course, and clearly has a lot of natural talent, but she hasn't seen nearly as many games as we have.
That's bs. She picked up on a breadcrumb I still don't even understand (LuL) and was perfectly happy to "run numbers" for the likelihood of a power role being scum vs town (even if I disagree with the principle of insufficient reason assumed). Btw, I don't buy the earlier/subsequent stuff about "information role" not implying an "data-gathering role".
Nuwen (283) wrote:You've got to be kidding - half of the town's power roles have a scum counterpart. You don't think it would be optimal play for a scum roleblocker or doctor to crumb early in an attempt to out-town any potential counterclaims? There's no reason to set up a fake claim when two out of four scum roles (mafia doc, mafia roleblocker) already have built-in safe claims, complete with role-complementary actions. I've already pointed out that Camn had no reason to set up a tracker crumb without receiving any results (which I assume she had yet to get, as her crumb was planted 18 minutes into the game).
Optimal play for scum =/= scummy play
Nuwen (283) wrote:Thus far, all I've seen is a case bred entirely from my decision to declare crumbing as a neutral tell
I refer back to Froggy's point here. Even
if
breadcrumbing is a neutral tell, that doesn't make pointing out the breadcrumb logical, or optimal play anyhow.

They definitely need to hang. Nuwen's 283 just goes on with undeveloped questions for Zmd, and they haven't developed anything against PokerFace/tajo. They just seem like stalling scum, and still haven't role-claimed.

...And I agree with Hoops that J-Scope is moderately scummy (292).
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Post Post #351 (isolation #22) » Sat May 02, 2009 10:45 am

Post by Ortohoops »

That kicks ass. With an accurate vig/SK around, I'm kinda thinking bussing your last buddy wouldn't be high on the priority list, or at least not an option until he had a decent chance of going down.

Time for rereading!
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Post Post #353 (isolation #23) » Sat May 02, 2009 10:49 am

Post by Ortohoops »

So, I guess that means Yos didn't use his save on Trotsky for action phase 1. I think normally, before the game, Trotsky would be the sort of player that you'd consider being in the spotlight for a vig/SK kill though, which makes me wonder why, or who Yos would use the save on. Who would be more likely than Trotsky?
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Post Post #355 (isolation #24) » Sat May 02, 2009 11:01 am

Post by Ortohoops »

Trotsky wrote:well a cursory read of this thread has told me yosariwen, incamnito and zaphod are town

i'd vote for frog dodging but my better half apparently already had the right idea
Ortohoops wrote:
Trotsky wrote:well a cursory read of this thread has told me yosariwen, incamnito and zaphod are town

i'd vote for frog dodging but my better half apparently already had the right idea

This is an excellent early quote from scum Trotsky calling out three people as town. It's undoubtedly going to be labelled wifom, but I don't think rofl (I presume it was him) wouldn't put in a scumbuddy if he was going to make these early claims.

So, if one were to be scum, who is worth looking at?

Trotsky wrote:
Yosariwen wrote:
Vote:Trotsky


Hasn't posted yet.

-Yos
i like that you singled me out. why so protective of sex w/ shafted's wife, raging wishbone, frog dodging, zmd, apples and banana, i wonder?

Here's an early post worth looking at, which makes it odd he'd put Yosariwen in his early town list.

--

In other news, I'm getting good feelings from SWSWC based on Trotsky's interactions with them, coupled with their proactive posting.

We need to hear more from Hogfather, ZMD and A&B though.

So, before I was speculating on Trotsky including scumbuddies in his early list of town players. Incamn has flipped town, and Yos has flipped scum. I know it's wifom again, but I wouldn't put past the idea of perhaps including
both
his buddies in his list.

Note a couple of key Zaphod posts;

Zaphod Beeblebrox wrote: Ortohoops' post noting something Trotsky said early is good. It may involve WIFOM but I'm inclined to agree that Trotsky was more likely pointing out three actual townies (Myself is confirmed to me, Incamn has flipped, and I'm inclined to say Yosariwen is town without this).
Zaphod Beeblebrox wrote:Both of Zaphod's heads disagree with the wagon on Yosariwen. The intense focus on it is getting in the way of other avenues of scum hunting and detrimental to the town.

We noticed that Yosariwen is not voting. Perhaps a good starting point to diversifying discussion would be for Yosariwen to analyze players and post a list of suspects.
--

I think this is the way I'm going to go once the cooldown phase is over. DGB has been uncharacteristically quiet this game - I don't know if she's trying to alter her own scum meta, or she's just been busy, but I don't like her ties with Yos-scum.
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Post Post #361 (isolation #25) » Sat May 02, 2009 11:53 am

Post by Ortohoops »

Zaphod Beeblebrox wrote: Then I think it's likely that one scum is in the red group, and another in the blue group.
Why do you think two scum?
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Post Post #363 (isolation #26) » Sat May 02, 2009 12:01 pm

Post by Ortohoops »

Is it just me, or does Raging Wishbone sound really dirty?
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Post Post #388 (isolation #27) » Sun May 03, 2009 2:14 am

Post by Ortohoops »

Vote: Raging Wishbone


J-Scope is probably the SK. We (I :P) dislike his tunneling on us and failure to comment on the more populous wagons.
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Post Post #408 (isolation #28) » Sun May 03, 2009 6:11 am

Post by Ortohoops »

sex w/ shafteds wife club wrote:Folks RW is so much less likely scum than the four non-Yos voters can we please move to more likely targets.
I agree with this, at the expense of my partner's opinions. I'm going to have to coax Orty into my line of thinking. I think there is a very good chance the third scum wasn't on Yos' wagon - and would rather our vote be put to a more productive use.

I'd rather kickstart a Zaphod wagon than jump on Hogfather, but I'm prepared to swap if we think we should be pumping out more lynches.

Unvote, vote: Zaphod
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Post Post #429 (isolation #29) » Sun May 03, 2009 11:18 pm

Post by Ortohoops »

Vote: Sex w/ shafteds wife club
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Post Post #431 (isolation #30) » Sun May 03, 2009 11:34 pm

Post by Ortohoops »

Are you sure Orty? I don't think it's likely at all that SWSWC is mafia - if Frog's claim is true, then they'll either be a vig or SK.

Trotsky had to be SWSWC's kill as scum wouldn't kill one of their own.

--

What does everyone think about keeping SWSWC alive for now, on the condition
we
get to direct their kill. This way, the town is controlling 2/3 of all killing modes.
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Post Post #432 (isolation #31) » Sun May 03, 2009 11:35 pm

Post by Ortohoops »

Lol, okay never mind.
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Post Post #433 (isolation #32) » Sun May 03, 2009 11:40 pm

Post by Ortohoops »

I'm prepared to hammer Hogfather now if we can have a wagon on Zaphod for our next lynch. I think she was very obvious in her methods of trying to slow down Yosariwen's lynch and place attention elsewhere.

I really don't know why she hasn't garnered more suspicion.
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Post Post #434 (isolation #33) » Sun May 03, 2009 11:43 pm

Post by Ortohoops »

The thing is though, if Hogfather was the last scum, why would he throw the game away and not try and stop his lynch? I know they've been having hydra problems, but if you were the last alive for your team, I doubt he'd be accepting a loss so easily.

I think he's probably lazy town.
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Post Post #466 (isolation #34) » Mon May 04, 2009 2:31 pm

Post by Ortohoops »

um, we have 3 claimed trackers?

ok mass-claim then immediately

we are vanilla

quick guys, before another scum-kill goes through

there were also two kills not including our vig that action phase which means we have multiple scum-factions, weren't there?

which means we have multiple scum-factions, I believe?
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Post Post #467 (isolation #35) » Mon May 04, 2009 2:41 pm

Post by Ortohoops »

Apples and Banana, please claim your results now. Not after people have claimed their action

I want to confirm you actually are a tracker
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Post Post #501 (isolation #36) » Wed May 06, 2009 8:17 pm

Post by Ortohoops »

and I didn't mean they said they'd be on V/LA, I just found it ironic they were busy discussing ethics of lurking/faking V/LA
while
they are apparently lurking in this game.

Vote: Apples & Bananas


We're still waiting...
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Post Post #556 (isolation #37) » Fri May 08, 2009 6:19 pm

Post by Ortohoops »

I was incorrect about A&B, sorry. I found quite a few things he did scummy (they were tbh) and thought he was last-minute gambiting scum.

I've done a kind of re-read and I agree with J-Scope's 552 strongly, which makes me think he is town. I would go a Zmd then Zaphod lynch. I'm wary of tunneling on DGB now (:D) but I've just never had any pro-town epiphanies with them this game.

I'm also a little wary of the fact I've only seen springlullaby in two games before, one in which she was mafia and one in which she was SK. I've no idea what her town meta is. That said Pesco Light seemed fairly town to me.

I'm also giving Raging the benefit of the doubt at this stage. He'd probably be my third lynch choice I guess.

So...Zmd then Zaphod I think.
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Post Post #558 (isolation #38) » Fri May 08, 2009 6:43 pm

Post by Ortohoops »

DGB didn't specifically refer to it in this game did she?

And just because she complains of getting wagoned when town doesn't mean if she gets wagoned this game, she is town. I am of the opinion that, yes, that thread was partly influencing my judgement on DGB but it may also be that I find her unjustly suspect in general. Still, it's clearly not influencing my judgement- her and Plum are my second choice for a lynch.
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Post Post #560 (isolation #39) » Fri May 08, 2009 7:13 pm

Post by Ortohoops »

um...what the hell are you talking about?

the ethics thread
I
linked to was re: V/LA, and re: SensFan...nothing to do with DGB
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Post Post #561 (isolation #40) » Fri May 08, 2009 7:14 pm

Post by Ortohoops »

Are you making the point that saying she gets unfairly wagoned in every game in an ethics thread is unethical for all her ongoing/subsequent games?
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Post Post #563 (isolation #41) » Fri May 08, 2009 8:04 pm

Post by Ortohoops »

There is no dilemma here. She has not said for this game "vote me and I'll leave site". If she had, I would be lynching her as a number one priority. I don't believe she said that in any external threads either, she just claims she is getting tunneled on with poor logic, which seems to be a subjective determination. Either way it has no relevance to this game as far as I can see.

Anyway, the decision needs to be made.

Vote: Zmd


L-1
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Post Post #566 (isolation #42) » Fri May 08, 2009 9:09 pm

Post by Ortohoops »

We cannot win as scum in this game, but that is not because of an ethical issue :)

I see the ethical issue with DGB as largely irrelevant because if she is scum I don't see her living to end-game. I might feel a little bit resentful if I felt less inclined to vote her in a certain game because of her complaints about being targeted too much while town, but that's life I suppose (and is not currently relevant to this game).
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Post Post #570 (isolation #43) » Fri May 08, 2009 10:46 pm

Post by Ortohoops »

Vote: Zaphod Beeblebrox
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Post Post #584 (isolation #44) » Sat May 09, 2009 9:48 pm

Post by Ortohoops »

I've re-read and I see no strong indications Zaphod are town, and there was the whole continuous defence of Yoswen which I saw in about five posts in a row.

Vote: Zaphod Beeblebrox
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Post Post #693 (isolation #45) » Tue May 12, 2009 7:25 pm

Post by Ortohoops »

Fine, seeing as it bothers you so much.

And fruity doesn't only mean "homosexual", and I didn't intend it that way.

And this stuff about "DGB claiming she will leave the site" and "abuse" (which I haven't engaged in as far as I'm aware, all I said was one of your thought processes would be retarded if you were town; which is true; but you are not town so it is not an insult [and I wouldn't have thought it a big deal anyway]); is a clear attempt to distract from the main game here; of lynching you.

Please post a whole page from the quicktopic rather than just some heavily edited posts (one of which has a line which makes absolutely no sense for you to post as town), I have at least been open with ours, even if it is contentless. The few posts you've posted prove nothing.

Oh and LOL @ you saying in Post 14 "when did the hit on Incamnito come in?" then saying in 17 "how did Incamnito die, he had no votes on him???"

Caught scum.

Plus, from my timezone shifting calculations Post 17 was made
just after
Post 206 by Adel, which means you had every motivation to make fake posts at that point (especially one where you've inadvertently contradicted what you wrote earlier).

Vote: Raging Wishbone


The timing of me doing this is arbitrary, I may as well have done so at any point since you voted me.
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Post Post #695 (isolation #46) » Tue May 12, 2009 7:37 pm

Post by Ortohoops »

This is why "Too Scummy To Be Scum"; is definitely a fallacy
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Post Post #698 (isolation #47) » Tue May 12, 2009 7:53 pm

Post by Ortohoops »

Summary for Jahudo:

- RW still refuses to post a continuous screenshot of his quicktopic, instead going for premeditated individual posts without showing their context.

- He was the one who brought up posting quicktopics recently, having originally had the request made of him by SensFan. If he is scum (from your perspective; I know he is), he would definitely have prepared (or at least attempted to) a quicktopic in advance.

- Most damning of all, he cannot (because it is impossible) explain how he could go from saying in Post 14:

"When did the hit on Incagmito come in, was that submitted before or after he had five votes on him in thread"

to saying in Post 17:

"I am completely lost on how these games work...in Alphat, how was incamnito and trotsky killed?

Trotsky had no votes on him in the thread. (I unvoted until we could talk - sorry). incaminto had five but not enough for a lynch?"

Good game. You didn't play at all badly, RW, you did extremely well to make it to LYOL considering you were one of the top contenders for a lynch after Yos died.
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Post Post #701 (isolation #48) » Tue May 12, 2009 8:01 pm

Post by Ortohoops »

First two pages please; I said that before. These are all after you had motivation to fake and prove nothing when I've already caught you making entirely contradictory posts.
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Post Post #704 (isolation #49) » Tue May 12, 2009 8:10 pm

Post by Ortohoops »

dictionary.com wrote:1. resembling fruit; having the taste or smell of fruit.
2. rich in flavor; pungent.
3. excessively sweet or mellifluous; cloying; syrupy: a specialist in fruity prose; to read poetry in a fruity voice.
4. Slang. insane; crazy.
5. Slang: Disparaging and Offensive. homosexual.
I was using definition numero four.
ortolan (689) wrote:Please take a screenshot like mine of either of the first two pages and white out anything pertaining to beta.
There it is. If you're town surely you should be jumping at the chance to prove you are town and get me lynched by posting one of the first two pages, which must be just filled with content considering how large your later posts were??? You're putting a lot of effort into debating me when it would be far easier just to prove me wrong by providing the requested screenshots? Both pages would be just dandy, white out anything you don't want.
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Post Post #713 (isolation #50) » Tue May 12, 2009 8:43 pm

Post by Ortohoops »

When you have a vanilla townie's role pm, it is impossible to win as scum
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Post Post #716 (isolation #51) » Tue May 12, 2009 8:57 pm

Post by Ortohoops »

Adel: we voted RW in 693 :)

RW (715) wrote:@Jscpe - Ortohops - entire case against me is not pasting my first page... Well I cant cause it contains posts from another game... Although, I got no problem ruining another game to win this one after he called me Fruity and implied I was retarded... (dont let orthohoops false threats scare ya). We TOWN already won!
If you post stuff about the other game, you will get modkilled in
this
one. White out anything pertaining to beta, but just show your first two pages please. It's totally implausible that you wouldn't have talked about alpha at all, especially when you got your role pms at the same time.

You also cannot explain why you clearly contradicted yourself in Posts 14 and 17.

This ethics thing is a clear attempt to distract.
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