DHSDSM alpha: Game Over.


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Post Post #11 (isolation #0) » Sun Apr 26, 2009 1:32 pm

Post by J-Scope »

I don't get it. What does Portishead have to do with Zmd? It is an inside joke? I want answers!

Vote: Incamnito
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Post Post #21 (isolation #1) » Sun Apr 26, 2009 2:43 pm

Post by J-Scope »

Yosariwen wrote:
J-Scope wrote:I don't get it. What does Portishead have to do with Zmd? It is an inside joke? I want answers!
Are you that dense?

Incamn's crumbing is neutral for now, as there are multiple data roles than can be of either alignment and would benefit from early crumbs. Currently a null tell.
I didn't read it as a crumb and I still don't upon rereading the post. What do you mean? He was talking about a music album causing him to vote a player, as if the player would understand the vote because of the music album.
Incamnito wrote:b) My meta on J-scope indicates that you would normally jump on Pesco Light for wasting a vote on the Mod. Why didn't you?
Your meta needs a bigger sample size :P
Because this game does not place a restriction on the number of posts, it is marginally more acceptable to place a vote on someone that cannot be voted, for lulz. But you make a point that Pesco should be questioned for trying to vote a non player in this game.

Pesco Light, what reaction were you looking for?
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Post Post #28 (isolation #2) » Sun Apr 26, 2009 4:15 pm

Post by J-Scope »

Zaphod Beeblebrox wrote:J-Scope (specifically, whoever is interested in questioning Pesco Light re voting the Mod): What do you know of Forbiddanlight's meta? Am curious.
I know she likes to lynch the mod in bastard modded games, but those have a purpose because bastard mods are scum and should be lynched. Does she like to vote the mod in regular games too?
Zaphod Beeblebrox wrote:Anyway. Hey, other head, how sure are you re Raging Wishbone's scumhood?
This was made by the hyrdra head that didn't vote for Wishbone I gather?
Incamnito wrote:And Zaphod.. my guess? J-Scope is scum with Pesco, and is Cross-bussing via the Beta game.
Why is this directed specifically at Zaphod?
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Post Post #37 (isolation #3) » Sun Apr 26, 2009 11:35 pm

Post by J-Scope »

Incamnito lynch gogogo

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Post Post #89 (isolation #4) » Tue Apr 28, 2009 10:29 am

Post by J-Scope »

The wagon had probably grown somewhat before the decision was made to kill Incamn, since we have had a few vote counts already today. I don’t think the reason Incamn was killed was because he had the most votes; meaning, I don’t think it was a vig kill because it was early in the day and I would think a compulsive vig would wait until the last minute to find the best target.

I’m not sure what stance the killer(s) would have publicly taken on Incman before killing him/her. I wouldn't be surprised with any since it was early in the day and reads are naturally weak anyway.

@Frog Dodging: Are you being sarcastic in any of your posts?
Raging Wishbone wrote:Here's a question for everyone - how many lynches do you think would be ideal in the next action block, if any?
We have to rely on lynches to find scum instead of power roles we can’t dictate or confirm even exist yet, and I think we should probably follow the same standards as deciding whether to lynch or no lynch on a day/night game. If someone looks scummy enough, let’s lynch them.
Pesco Light wrote:I take it you're serious about this. Let's hear some reasons why.

Vote Incamnito
FoS J-Scope
Does the FoS correlate to something in this game? If so, what?
Zaphod Beeblebrox wrote:I've been scum with both heads of the Yosariwen hydra. My expertise is unparalleled.
Have you seen town Yos and town Nuwen? What are the main differences?
sex w/ shafteds wife club wrote:So Yos noticed the tracker breadcrumb. why did you point it out so blatantly?
You mean Incamn’s post 8 and Yos’s post 14, right? Where was the crumb implied as specifically a tracker crumb?
Apples and Banana wrote:The wagon on Incamnito grew way too quickly, imo. Pesco Light, especially, seemed to be voting for a comment the Mod said couldn't be backed up, due to talking about the other game.
Since your voting Pesco, do you think the wagon grew way too quickly from 0 votes to 3 votes, or from 3 votes to 5 votes? Or just quickly in general?

How do you read Incamnito’s original suspicion that had to be withdrawn because of the ongoing game rule? Do you think it was more a joke or more serious?

I saw Incamn’s vote as a means to get out of random voting and into serious discussion but not a confidant case of scumminess. Still it was probably enough to require a response from Pesco and myself.
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Post Post #129 (isolation #5) » Tue Apr 28, 2009 4:19 pm

Post by J-Scope »

Ortohoops wrote:I would bet that there is at least two scum in the red zone and possibly the orange, which is where I'm going to cast a vote for now.
The game hasn’t been going on for that long so I think it’s possible that some early inactivity is not an indication of alignment. Aren’t those numbers from that other game an average of the whole game? Is it possible that some of those lurkers in that game began the game active and decreased their PPD as the game went along?
Ortohoops wrote:One area we can make a difference in, before genuine information develops, is activity, which is of the highest importance in this game. Leaving ourselves with players capable of being very active, and less inclined to lurk is essential.

This is why I want the first 1-2 lynches to be lurkers.
Do you still believe this is the best method of selecting lynches? It looks like you are telling the scum how not to be caught. The way you are pushing it before the lurkers are given time to re-appear strongly or weakly looks suspicious.

So I don’t think we should focus on this. If a hydra is scummy and just so happens to have a smaller PPD that’s fine, but the scum tells should come first.

FoS Ortohoops

Raging Wishbone wrote:Hoopla that was a tremendous post and it carries much merit, although I disagree with lynching ANY townie, imo..
Raging Wishbone wrote:to elaborate a bit: I am sure if you are Town you do not want Townies lynched and I will look at lurkers with a a critical eye but my bottom line is I disagree with lynching lurkers.
But do you believe that Hoopla knows lynching lurkers means lynching townies? Do you feel that lynching lurkers will mean lynching townies? It’s odd that you would take a stand that typically does not need to be said, that town don’t want to lynch town.
PoketheAlpaca wrote:Something feels a little wierd about J-Scopes post 89.
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 18#1644818
Feels more like he is speculating then deciding on things for themself. Call it a gut suspicion.
What specifically in post 89? The first two paragraphs? My TL;DR point there is I don’t think it was a vig kill.
Frog Dodging wrote:Define "enough". "Enough", for instance, could be attempting to assassinate the president, or it could just be looking at him funny.
When I said “If someone looks scummy enough, let’s lynch them.” I meant, if 50%+1 people find someone scummy and want to lynch them, they should feel free to do so; in other words, follow the same standards as in a day/night game.
Yosariwen wrote:At the time, "outting" Incamn's breadcrumbs had a much higher chance of hitting scum than voting randomly.
But didn't you initially call it a null tell?
Yosariwen wrote:hitting a power role at random is more likely to hit scum than hitting any play at random.
Did you have this feeling back then?
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Post Post #176 (isolation #6) » Thu Apr 30, 2009 5:18 am

Post by J-Scope »

Raging Wishbone wrote:Seven of us here played in that game (me, her, Rofl, Tajo, Nuwen, DGB, and Seraphim). I do not think Hoopla meant she wanted to lynch Townies, I was trying to make a point that this is what happened during the course of that game with the lynch all lurkers
But do you think that strategy is less reliable in this game? Do you find it odd that from her experience in that other game she should realize this too?
Ortohoops wrote:That may be true, but it's also beneficial for the town if scum are posting frequently. Do you really think you can generate accurate reads on players if they're only posting say ~8 times per action phase?
No I don’t. I think it’s good not to let anyone you think is lurking get away with it; you should keep posting their name and offense and see how they react. But from your proposition I thought you were trying to get the lurkers lynched first before trying other methods of getting them to post and getting that better read. I understand and agree with your comparison that missing the first 48 hours of this game is like missing 2 weeks.
Yosariwen wrote:Actually, that was Nuwen, and I'm not sure why she did. I rather wish she hadn't, considering; I feel that it was a mistake.
Yosariwen wrote:Mmhm, but I wanted to run the idea by my hydra partner prior. We came to the consensus that although the chance of a mislynch is lower, the cost to town is far higher. But that rough probability is a good item to keep in mind when approaching any future claims.
These two don’t add up. How can they both be true?

FoS: Yosariwen

sex with shaft.ed wrote:Yes great idea for the town aligned compulsive vig to kill a semi outed tracker 3 pages (?) into the game. They're playing to their A game for sure.
That was just Yosariwen’s interpretation but where was it seen in the original crumb?

-------------------

A&B’s post 155 is a lot of needless defense and no scumhunting. I’m seeing a bad trend from that hydra. s/he’s defending the inactivity but not doing anything about it. I’d expect town to own up and try to scumhunt as much as they can.

Get in the game.
FoS: A&B

Zaphod wrote:Unless Yosariwen is SK and Nuwen tried to out a PR to the scum? Gah, the thing makes such little sense that my Occam's Razor sense is getting a major error message.
I guess that’s a possibility but just speculation. I’d rather think in terms of scum or not scum.

Right now I am suspicious of Ortohoops, Yosariwen, and A&B.
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Post Post #178 (isolation #7) » Thu Apr 30, 2009 5:25 am

Post by J-Scope »

sexy shafted wrote:In addition to Yoswen pointing out the breadcrumb, we have J-Scope fishing to understand it. One or both need to die faster.
I wasn't fishing because I hadn't bought the crumb theory. In both those posts I thought Incamn had voted for ZMD because of Portishead. Incamn explicitly said:
Incamn wrote:Vote ZMD
why?
I was listening to Portishead...
Which I took to mean that ZMD also listens to Portishead or should relate to the joke vote on some level. If anything, in the back of my mind I was wondering if "Portishead" was an inside joke or some clue to another game they had played together in. So I wanted a reaction from them that might confirm something along those lines.
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Post Post #267 (isolation #8) » Thu Apr 30, 2009 3:33 pm

Post by J-Scope »

Ortohoops wrote:Wow, that's actually a good catch. I want to hear what team Yosariwen has to say about it
Ortohoops wrote:I'm basically convinced now. Sexy shaft is right, lets move it.

Unvote, vote: Yosariwen
Ortohoops wrote:The town needs to finish off this wagon and kickstart a new one soon.
First you want to hear more then you decide you just want to vote, and finally you decide you don’t want to hear more and just want a lynch. This looks very jumpy and I don’t buy that you’re convinced since you weren’t directly looking at Yosariwen before that first post but you considered Incamnito scum from the early posts. Did you believe Incamn had crumbed in the beginning? If so you must have thought Yosariwen had caught SCUM crumbing. If not, you aren’t reading.

We should hear more defense from Nuwen, but your vote here looks opportunistic rather than scumhunting.

Vote: Ortohoops
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Post Post #318 (isolation #9) » Fri May 01, 2009 2:54 pm

Post by J-Scope »

Ortohoops wrote:For reference here is my page 1 vote for Incamnito, which I find odd considering you voted her too!
I'm not talking about our joke votes.
Ortohoops wrote:I didn't notice a crumb at first, I was keen for an early bandwagon though.
So you admit you weren't reading?
Ortohoops wrote:Since then I did not express suspicion for Incamnito. Your post is incredibly reaching and paints me in a negative light when you're accusing me of something I didn't do.
Maybe you did read the crumb, maybe you didn't. But explain to me how "since then I did not express suspicion for Incamnito" holds up against your post 35?
Ortohoops post 35 wrote:Incamnito looks as good as caught-scum.
That looks like suspicion, or were you pushing a wagon based on a joke and trying to paint someone as scum?
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Post Post #320 (isolation #10) » Fri May 01, 2009 3:07 pm

Post by J-Scope »

I'm trying to look at this wagon and the reasons behind it from all angles. Right now I don't think the tells are that strongly indicative of scum.
Apples & Banana wrote:First real post of the game, and it points out a breadcrumb. I've been trying to figure out if there are any possible scum motivations for doing this, by looking at the role list, and the only one I can think of is trying to get Incamn killed by the Mafia/SK (other than her), if there is one.
I don’t follow the logic of this idea. If she can kill and she thinks she’s found town power role then why doesn’t she kill it herself? The only upside I can think is that another killing faction doesn't kill her, but that's at very low odds that early so it doesn't seem worth it as any faction. What other reason is there?
Apples & Banana wrote:With Yos having an almost 'perfect' answer to Trotsky's question, its also very possible this line of questionning had been planned in advance.
I don’t think it would be hard to have the perfect question if it wasn’t planned out. It’s a weak question so it wouldn’t seem that important to plan, but scum could give each other weak questions in order to look like they are interacting. So it’s not a reliable connection in my opinion.
Apples & Banana wrote:Then again, the clear connection to Trotsky is best explained if they are scumbuddies.
Apples & Banana wrote:There were 5 (iirc) players who had yet to post. You chose 1, supposedly out of thin air. It ended being Scum. You might have legitimately just happened to choose Scum, you might have decided to poke your scumbuddy into posting, you might have decided you might as well vote your buddy to distance. I pointed it out as a possibility, and that I consider it a slight scumtell.
How was the connection clear and best, and yet you only considered the vote, which is a large part of their connection, a slight scumtell?

Yosariwen wrote:Seriously, anything I do, I know why I do it and can explain it in as much detail as is desired. It's silly of you to suggest that somehow me being able to explain why I do the things I do somehow is suspicious.
Must…fight…Appeal to Authority.

Actually Yos’s post 194 just have some valid and logical explanations for why someone would out a crumb like Nuwen did. But I don’t think these were ever reasons they thought of when they outed the crumb. He’s just showing how it
could
have been justified.
Nuwen wrote:mercuriala (6:01:11 PM): I suspected this was a breadcrumb of doc protection on the third player, ZMD, whom she oddly voted for.
mercuriala (6:01:40 PM): Didn't even cross my mind that it was a tracker crumb, since there would be no results to report yet
I think this fits “data role” just as well as any. She never said tracker so it’s odd that people jumped to that conclusion after Incamn flipped. It just feels like Incamn’s flip was used by scum to setup this lynch.
sex with shaft.ed wrote:God you suck at this game. I thought I was bad, but jesus. Why in the hell would scum super bus their remaining partner on D2? Get your head out of your ass.
There’s no need for that ad hom. RRBone bit back a little too but this was the worst of it and you initiated it. I want a calmly thought out lynch, not some giant ball of emotion that scum can easily manipulate for a quick lynch.
FoS: sex with shaft.ed
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Post Post #324 (isolation #11) » Sat May 02, 2009 2:33 am

Post by J-Scope »

Ortohoops wrote:I honestly think J-Scope's reasoning for voting us in 267 is pretty weak, especially with all the other drama taking place in the surrounding posts which he could (also) be commenting on.
Why? It looks like your two heads contradict each other then and now. You liked the wagon and you didn't explicitly mention the crumb but you did say let's focus on this game. Both me and myself liked the wagon but we explicitly said we didn't believe in the crumb. There in lies the difference, because now you do believe in the crumb when conveniently you ignored discussing it until you could use it in your favor to push a second wagon. Why ignore commenting on it the first time?
Ortohoops wrote:...And I agree with Hoops that J-Scope is moderately scummy (292).
Her defense was that you pushed the wagon with reasoning while she only kept it at a joke vote. That you were the one to say, let's focus on this game. Tell me, if you were so focused on this game did YOU catch that Incamn had crumbed and it was outed?
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Post Post #326 (isolation #12) » Sat May 02, 2009 4:15 am

Post by J-Scope »

ortolan wrote:I
still
don't understand the crumb. Clearly it was a crumb though, Nuwen said it was an "information role", and Incamnito was a tracker
I don't understand the crumb either, but Nuwen actually said "data" not "information". They do sound like they can be used to mean the same thing, but Information is explicitly used in the wiki to describe a the Tracker and other roles, whereas data is not. I can agree with her that "data" was used intentionally to stay vague, otherwise why not use the proper nomenclature for whatever group of PR she was inferring from the original crumb (she later said she thought it was a doc, which makes sense only because docs got to use their powers before the first action phase).

Anyone saying that Nuwen outed a "information" crumb or a "tracker" crumb is in fact extrapolating on the initial crumb because we know that Incamn was a tracker. Of course it would seem strange if a Tracker crumbed something other than a tracker so in hindsight the people calling it a "information" crumb or "tracker" crumb are correct.

I don't trust hindsight in this instance because firstly scum could have just as easily killed Incamn because there was an unsubstantiated crumb, that, before the flip could have meant Doc or Cop or anything to anyone of us I am willing to bet, and, secondly, because hindsight allows the mislynch of a newbie's mistake.
ortolan wrote:I can't process your second sentence and to your third- no, I didn't notice/recognise the crumb the crumb and wouldn't necessarily have believed it if I had.
I'm talking about when you said this in post 35:
ortohoops wrote:I would like to suggest (very strongly) we focus on this game over the other for the time being
You only had to read page 1 to understand that Incamn outed what they thought was a crumb. Why did you tell others to focus on a game you weren't apparently reading?
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Post Post #374 (isolation #13) » Sat May 02, 2009 2:52 pm

Post by J-Scope »

I mostly agree with the sentiment that the non-Yosariwen voters are a good place to start looking for the final mafia member. Early bussing could have occurred but the wagon was long enough for scum to possibly find a way off. Late bussing is unlikely because it leaves only the last scum, like Ortohoops said, but also because there was a day and a half left before deadline.
Death the Hogfather wrote:-goes off to shoot hydra partner who seems to have disappeared-
I hear ya. I need to find my partner too.
Zaphod Beeblebrox wrote:J-scope was all over the place voting everyonr under the sun.
What do you mean by that? I voted for Incamnito and Ortohoops.
PoketheAlpaca wrote:You look too much into clues me thinks. Inside jokes are laughed at by parties involved. You have said nothing and or waited for a laugh.
I was just looking into something I didn't understand. Tell me, did you understand why he said he was voting for ZMD
because
of Portishead? I thought it was good to ask to determine whether it was something he was willing or unwilling to explain.
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Post Post #393 (isolation #14) » Sun May 03, 2009 3:29 am

Post by J-Scope »

Ortohoops wrote:J-Scope is probably the SK. We (I Razz) dislike his tunneling on us and failure to comment on the more populous wagons.
I’ll comment on the Raging Wishbone and Zaphod wagons when I get on the same page as my partner. What other populous wagons have we avoided?

How do those suspicions you have make SK the conclusion rather than mafia scum?
Raging Wishbone wrote:13. J-Scope - reading sorta neutral, I find myself not remembering much of what they did here. Could be Jahudo flying under the radar as GF again, though if I understood correctly only 'scope is posting at the moment. Could you confirm this, J-scope?
It’s much more J than Scope actually. Do you think I am flying under the radar? When have I flew under the radar as GF?
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Post Post #424 (isolation #15) » Sun May 03, 2009 5:11 pm

Post by J-Scope »

I think Hogfather is a good lynch today. He initially voted Yos late in the wagon but quickly unvoted which may have been an attempt to judge how well the wagon was going and whether it was time to bus or to hope that Yos could still talk himself out of the wagon.

In any rate we have 7 hours until the action phase ends so I am going to place my vote. Claim if you can Hogfather, but it is in our interests to lynch someone now.

Vote: Death the Hogfather
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Post Post #438 (isolation #16) » Mon May 04, 2009 3:17 am

Post by J-Scope »

Death the Hogfather wrote:I (Kairyuu) will probably not be using small caps, so that it is possible to differentiate between Seraphim and myself. Just a note.
Does this mean that if Kairyuu had anything to say, he'd do it in ALL CAPS? There wasn't any posts with all caps, so had Kairyuu said anything?

Seraphim is V/LA and it looks like maybe Kairyuu wasn't participating most of the game. That could explain why they aren't fighting the issue.
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Post Post #470 (isolation #17) » Mon May 04, 2009 4:03 pm

Post by J-Scope »

Are we officially massclaiming?
ZMD wrote:That leaves JScope, who didn't vote Yos and RW, who you all know my opinion of by now.
That is a very black and white way to look at the Yosariwen wagon. We have 2 more days in this action phase so I think we should take a careful look at the rise of the Yosariwen wagon.

It’s true I never voted for Yosariwen but that wasn’t because I didn’t think they were suspicious. I was questioning them to get more information, specifically from the Nuwen half during that time when Yosariwen was trying to explain for Nuwen. The pressure that came in other people’s votes always looked like the right amount of votes when I was looking at Yosariwen more and more closely, but I didn’t want to vote unless I was very confidant that Nuwen was playing scummy and not a newbie mistake. (I hadn’t seen her play in War in Heaven or any other big game; only marathon games so I had no reliable meta on her).

Post 129 is when I first started wondering what Nuwen meant by the chance of a power role being scum, which didn’t sound like the original claim that the crumb was a null tell. I needed Nuwen to explain that, so I didn’t want to vote yet.

Post 176 I thought I had caught in inconsistency in Nuwen and Yosarian’s stories about when they talked about the crumb in private before talking in the thread. I gave a FoS but not a vote because, again, they really needed to defend that point in order for me to know how strong a scumtell this was.

Post 320 I had to acknowledge that Yos was defending using his appeal to authority but in that case I didn’t push the issue with a vote because I figured it might be a playstyle tell and not a alignment tell. Isn’t that what “I agree with Yosarian2” comes from? Him being persuasive by reputation? Still, it was weird so I pointed it out in case people that knew him better could elaborate it if it was really a scumtell.

In post 320 I also said that Yos’s arguments were reasonable but they didn’t break the case because it was Nuwen who decided to out the crumb and she must have had, partially or fully, her own intentions for doing so. Her intentions might not be the same as his, or what he came up with later on.

Anyway by this point Yosariwen had 5 or 6 votes out of a possible 7. If I added my vote it would have had to be the last word and I felt there was still time to pressure Nuwen without a vote.

Of course I don’t have to have a solid case to add an early vote on someone but in many games that is just the way I play. But if you look at the rise of the Yosariwen wagon I was generally in favor of the wagon and started pushing questions since there was even a single vote.

I need to re-read to determine who is most scummy.
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Post Post #480 (isolation #18) » Tue May 05, 2009 12:18 pm

Post by J-Scope »

We're vanilla.

Looking at the rise of the Yosariwen wagon I don't like ZMD's participation. They waited until the wagon was an inevitable lynch and then they placed a hammer.

They started out calling Yos a neutral read ever after ZMD recorgnized that Yos-Nuwen had outed a breadcrumb.

The only other mention of Yos was that they thought Trotsky and Yos were more likely scumpartners than Trotsky and Zaphod. There was no elaboration or explanation; that isn't even a good suspicion because it is a relative read using Zaphod as a constant.

So ZMD lurks until a point in the game where the voices for the Yos wagon have become very strong, most notably sex with shaft.ed, and they drop the hammer without a single question uttered or a single point debated.

It is probable that Yos had been measuring support while he was defending, and would have told his scumbuddy if and when to bus.

Today they are pushing the point that scum couldn't possibly have bussed. Instead of scum hunting, this point looks more like a defensive act because it attempts to place themselves as the most townie looking with the most visible Yos vote (the hammer).

Their scumhunting was very weak day 1, and trying to avoid commenting on the Yos wagon in multiple posts. They were trying to lay low instead of scumhunt on day 1, which makes me think they are really scum.

Vote: ZMD
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Post Post #492 (isolation #19) » Wed May 06, 2009 5:09 pm

Post by J-Scope »

Zaphod Beeblebrox wrote:J-Scope votes, maybe tries to kickstart a wagon on (?) Ortohoops for looking opportunistic in voting Yosariwen. Scum distraction?

J-Scope continues here to build a case against Orto while Yosariwen is at L-1.
But I wasn't ignoring the Yosariwen wagon. Since when is trying to look at multiple people a scum tell? And my case on Orto did not have to mean that Yos was town if Orto was scum, so I felt very justified to investigate scummy actions that I thought Orto took.

-I debated them on their idea of lynching all lurkers, myself taking the stand that we should only do that as a last ditch opportunity and not a priority.

-I suspected them from what I saw was a jumpy move onto the wagon. They explicitly said that they wanted to hear defense from Yosariwen, then before Yosariwen had the chance to defend, they decided they were convinced and didn't need to hear his defense. Why wouldn't town wait a little longer? Why say they were basically convinced when a short time ago they said they were not and needed to hear from him? At the time I thought that was scummy and I pushed them on it.

-I continued to ask questions about how they first viewed the crumb to see if I could find inconsistencies. But I was still looking at the Yos wagon and pointed out that Yos was using appeal to authority. I was on Yos and Orto simultaneously.

Where was I trying to downplay Yosariwen's actions? Where was I defending them? All I can see is the points where I attacked them.
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Post Post #530 (isolation #20) » Thu May 07, 2009 9:02 am

Post by J-Scope »

Zmd did you just push an argument then withdraw it in the same post? Why?

You are acknowledging correctly now that you are not confirmed town, correct? Then why did you go ahead and keep that false argument on A&B? It looks like you are falsely trying to paint him as scum.

This is a timed game and we need to move fast while the odds are still on our side. I think someone should hammer soon.
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Post Post #532 (isolation #21) » Thu May 07, 2009 9:17 am

Post by J-Scope »

SensFan wrote:Trotsky and Yos both had VERY powerful roles; I see no reason why the third Scum wouldn't submit a kill OR use an action. I'm going to treat ZMD as basically confirmed, I might look at lynching him if it gets down to 3 people, but not at all before that.
But what if the third scum is a power role too? Do you think a GF would still submit the kill much more likely than a scum RB?
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Post Post #552 (isolation #22) » Fri May 08, 2009 3:22 pm

Post by J-Scope »

Zaphod is my second choice for a lynch. I feel that they didn't contribute to the Yos-Nuwen wagon discussion to the extent that they should have based on how they have portrayed themselves during this game, particularly Plum who had talked about the wagon but never came to a conclusion on Nuwen calling out the crumb being a scum tell or not.
Zaphod wrote:After I gave Yosariwen some headroom to hunt scum, they didn't take the opportunity, but rather dug themselves in the defensive position.
This is true but it happened late in the day after Yos-Nuwen defended several points, but Zaphod did not comment on those points. I find it strange that Zaphod would promote scumhunting without debating the biggest wagon of the day.

For instance, Zaphod-Plum had two specific insights into the Yos-case that she graced the surface of in Post 159. In neither case did she follow up, question Yos-Nuwen, or come to a similar/different conclusion.

1.
Zaphod wrote:Nuwen's explanation doesn't make much sense, but then again as scum the best thing to do would be to not mention it outside the scum quicktopic and kill Incamn.
2.
Zaphod wrote:
Yosariwen wrote:
Frog Dodging wrote:Why would you assume something before you have reason to assume it? I'd say that Yosariwen pointing out the breadcrumb thus signaling to the scum "HEY-O POWER ROLE HERE" is a much better reason for the kill than to frame 5 people on a bandwagon.
Why are you assuming it was a scum kill, Frog? Especally considering that there were 5 votes on the wagon, I wouldn't at all be surprised if the Incamn kill was a compulsive vig (remember, if there is a compulsive vig, that role has to kill every single action phase, every 96 hours.)
This ALSO makes me twitch. I would guess, if I had to, that Incamn was a kill o' scum.
In the next few posts both sides of Zaphod say they think Yos-Nuwen is likely town, but neither explain WHY. It had seemed like Plum wanted to really explore points 1 and 2 from above but never did. Yos-Nuwen got to L-1 by the time Zaphod called them town and asked them to place a vote. Zaphod also tried to further two wagons (RW and A&B), so it's possible that they were trying to "vote everyone (but Yos-Nuwen) under the sun".

--------------
That being said, I still prefer a ZMD lynch today. RW sums up some good reasons why in 549. I agree that it looked like ZMD played to survive in day 1. I place more value on whether or not someone investigated/questioned/pushed the Yos-Nuwen wagon rather than if you voted them or not.

Also, Ortohoops is sure town for their pressure on Yos.

Nyballs has looked town so far, I can elaborate if necessary, but Pesco-Light actually seemed to vote for Yos-Nuwen more as a warning because Nuwen wanted to use probability to catch scum power roles. Hard to say if Pesco thought that was scummy or just stupid. I thought their involvement on the Yos-Nuwen wagon was a null tell, in other words. It probably has given Nyballs some slack to play loose and aggressive, but even that's looked normal pro-town behavior.

RW I have to read again. I want to make sure I'm not confusing games.
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Post Post #577 (isolation #23) » Sat May 09, 2009 3:39 am

Post by J-Scope »

We're still in twilight right? I don't think those votes count.

RW, I can't find the conclusion to this one argument you had with Yos-Nuwen. Can you show how that ended?
Raging Wishbone wrote: ...See he didn't as far as I can read, someone else did, perhaps a scum buddy? This ties into the lie which originally got you put on the spot. You claimed to have a non existent conversation with Yos regarding crumbtrails. you both contradicted each other...I kinda still think you are a bad lynch but why lie when you don't need to?
Someone else, I think A&B, pointed out that Yos was the first one to release the AIM chats. That seemed to be the primary reason you voted Yos-Nuwen even though you felt you weren't ready. What had made you think it was a lie in the beginning?

Also you talked about how people had made elaborate fake chats in another game. What made you think Yos-Nuwen's chats were fakes? Was it the wording of something?
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Post Post #582 (isolation #24) » Sat May 09, 2009 2:39 pm

Post by J-Scope »

Let's decide this lynch and if we still have a game with 4 people, we'll decide how to play it then. Zaphod is my top suspect, as I said in a previous post.

Vote: Zaphod Beeblebrox
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Post Post #590 (isolation #25) » Sun May 10, 2009 8:54 am

Post by J-Scope »

Exactly what about Pesco-Light's interaction with Yos is genuine? Why does "genuine" mean they are not likely scum with Yos?
Pesco-Light wrote:
Yosariwen wrote:Here's the distinction - the motivation behind breadcrumbing was a null tell (any power role has the motivation to crumb his or her results, regardless of alignment). As an independent body, nothing Incamn did made him/her more likely to be scum than town or town than scum.

Probability dictates that killing a random power role will hit scum more often than killing any other random player. This isn't a tell; it's a ratio observation independent of the crumbing itself.
Playing the setup isn't going to catch scum more effectively than solid scumhunting and I'm quite sure this is not unreasonable to expect from the experienced players in this game.
This was the only real interaction they had. It was the reason Pesco voted and it was their last post. I don't think it is a indication either way because they were not calling Yos scum, but they did place a vote so if they are partners they intended to distance early. We don't know what their true intention was because it never played out. Maybe they were hoping to withdraw the vote, but maybe not. At the time of the vote I think there was enough time and leeway to do either.

So I don't think Pesco-Light's actions make them much less likely to be scum. I think nyballs has looked pro-town, however, by getting to the root of who could be scum and why based on day 1's wagon.

I have to write up a case but I'm thinking I'd vote for RW over nyballs.
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Post Post #593 (isolation #26) » Sun May 10, 2009 2:23 pm

Post by J-Scope »

There is nothing I can show because I haven't been playing with my partner (Kaleidoscope). I tried to exchange PM's and he had replied that he was sorry but couldn't keep up with the game.

Post 37 was the only post he made under "J-Scope". The rest was all me, Jahudo.

He had a few posts that he made on his own account but those were to say he wasn't reading, so I've just gone ahead and played solo.
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Post Post #606 (isolation #27) » Mon May 11, 2009 12:29 am

Post by J-Scope »

Raging Wishbone wrote:Tthis post makes me wanna vote J-Scope right now. I really dislike how he tries to throw some dirt on nybasdjgsalxzgkasj so I'll be more likely to vote nyba over him, and several lines later claims to find him pro time anyways. This behavior is both indicative of his interest being only in self survival, and typical of Jahudo's play as scum (at least judging by the relatively recent Boost mafia). I'll wait for more discussion with Walt and everyone to post daytalk, though.
Can you or your partner answer my questions from that post? I'm not throwing dirt on nyballs; they've looked town to me as I've said previously. I'm also not saying Pesco-Light was scummy, because their vote was never played out and they are not responsible for flaking at that key moment.

I'm merely saying that I don't think Pesco-Light was involved with, or ever knew about, the main reasons why Yosariwen was lynched. Sure, they would have had to distance which doesn't seem exceedingly likely in a timed game, but we don't know their true intentions.

The main point I made with that post was this: Pesco Light did not call Yos scum or scummy. Their vote had alot of weight in the long run but not initially because they never drew a conclusion that Yos could be scum.

Self-survival is hard to judge. I think you are doing it too. It is clear to me that one of us is more likely the lynch, but this time choosing wrong costs us the game. So yes, I am thinking of self-survival.
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Post Post #612 (isolation #28) » Mon May 11, 2009 4:25 am

Post by J-Scope »

ortolan wrote:
J-Scope (606) wrote:Self-survival is hard to judge. I think you are doing it too. It is clear to me that one of us is more likely the lynch, but this time choosing wrong costs us the game. So yes, I am thinking of self-survival.
I don't like how this reads. You are acknowledging that one of you or RW is the more likely lynch, but saying you can understand his behaviour from a townie perspective. However your thought process as town should be "I am not scum, I am not voting for nyb or Ortohoops therefore RW is scum".
Self-survival is what scum are doing too. To me RW is most likely the last scum. To everyone else, my perception is that one of us must be scum and the other town with scum tendencies (ie: not hard voting Yos). To everyone of us this decision ends the game so both scum and town have reason towards self-survival.

I think RW was getting at that I was self-survival because that's something that scum would do. I agree, but it has to be something town does here.

A closer look at RW:
---------
Raging Wishbone post 166 wrote:Thus far I see Frod Dodging being useless, arguing against Orthoops' plan (meaning supporting slowing down the game, meanig bad) and then after being called out on it immediately upping the aggressive with a vote on Yosariwen, who thus far feels strongly town. That's definitely good enough for a vote: frog dodging.
Raging Wishbone post 177 wrote:I'm not at all suspicious of Yosariwen, the crumbing, while a bad move, feels like unnatural play for scum (especially smart scum), and while I've never played with Nuwen, Yos feels like his town self thus far.
These were taken very early on in the wagon, around 2 votes where the attention was building but not the dominant issue. They chose not to push the issue of the crumb and from the start they decided to play it off as nothing while still giving them potential room to change their mind through the other head:
Raging Wishbone wrote:Alright so Nuwen made a huge MISTAKE? As far as my meta and previous experiences playing with her, she seems to think she is incapable of mistakes? I'm not sure I am buying this?
These questions look like they are directed at the self, as if the hydra is debating how they will eventually rule this decision but for now they are giving Nuwen the benefit of the doubt.
Raging Wishbone wrote:…and probably frogdoger may be townies. In fact without my partner around I would unvote frogdodge if he was in danger of being lynched... Yoso I am just not so sure about, I also dont like that she is posting elsewhere as someone else pointed out but not here?
There is a hint of suspicion of Yos-Nuwen in this post but it is very weak and probably couldn't have led to much. The bigger importance is how they use both heads to think independent, differing thoughts. This allows them to stay on the fence until one path becomes more viable and ultimately the head that chose that path could convince the other without us seeing much of the behind the scenes talk.

This can be alleviated if they provide private discussions, but I am somewhat hesitant to what they will show seeing as they believe they know how to determine fake conversations from real ones, and how they might position that authority.
Raging Wishbone post 250 wrote:Regarding YoSo, I would not vote to lynch them, (other than their possible lie and trying to find an excuse for sexEd, I still think they sound like townies trying to stay in the game)
What possible lie? You seem to acknowledge that the possible lie is a reason you would lynch them, so did you think the lie was real?

----------------
Raging Wishbone post 252 wrote:I think it is critical to find out who tried to get Yoso mod killed, if someone did..... however in the end if Yoso does get lynched and flips scum THEN it is a mute conversation. At this point in the game, I am not gonna wwitch my vote, but I wont be around tomorrow or the weekend either I think... so I will leave it to my partner to make a final choice.
Raging Wishbone post 280 wrote:I am really thinking yoso is a bad lynch... Whoever wants to hammer, please read the last four pages (tonights posts) carefully... and give it just a tad of time…

I am NOT stalling, a few hours wont hurt... I just really think there was something important in the last four pages and it would be prudent for everyone to consider before hammering yo/nuwen!
I thought these posts looked appropriate at the time because they were focusing on something (the modkill attempt) that needed to be addressed. But nothing came of it and RW went on to vote Yos-Nuwen over the AIM chat which felt like a side issue, or an auxiliary issue to the main case on Yos-Nuwen.

-----------

They do an interesting thing in this wagon, which is take both sides by using both heads. They allow themselves to call Yos town in the early going and find an /in to join the wagon late by deferring to the other head.

They admit that the modkill attempt won't be important if Yos dies and flips scum. I don't know what ever became of that modkiller attempter but the more I look at it, it looks like a diversion to setup a wild goose chase. It could have been started by Yos himself because it allowed the wagon to stall for a few moments. If it was, the remaining scum would have known to use it as a tipping point to either bus or push the wild goose chase. There isn't solid evidence to support this but I have a gut feeling from Yos's posts that he was ready for that cloud of confusion.

The reason they joined the wagon, frankly, looks like a small issue to the reasons many of us suspected Yos-Nuwen. A couple minutes in between AIM posts, using "they" to refer to the town; it is hard to say how people use their time on AIM or their English. The first can be explained away by other AIM chat conversations; the second could refer to the "town that isn't us and doesn't know us". Yes, these things are mute because Yos-Nuwen flipped scum but the last remaining scum would have known this and, by bussing, would turn this small tell into a genuine find after the flip.

I am betting that RW gauged the wagon early on as a passing phase, so he stayed off it. The wagon became great and this AIM tell was invented to give himself a reason to join. It helped that both heads had been opposed on some other opinions, so this hop would look like an extension of that. One even said they would differ to the other on the decision. We presume this is where the one that genuinely opposed the wagon from the start now differs to the other who was more cautious and has more justification to join as a curious, scumhunting "townie".

I am betting that RW is scum. If this comes down to me vs. RW I'll vote and let the others decide.
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Post Post #614 (isolation #29) » Mon May 11, 2009 4:43 am

Post by J-Scope »

What about Hoops? Has she been in recently?
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Post Post #620 (isolation #30) » Mon May 11, 2009 7:59 am

Post by J-Scope »

I never tried to make anyone suspect nyballs. I have no idea where you are getting this idea from what I said. I called Pesco a null read solely in the interaction with Yosariwen. The other Pesco posts do not amount to a strong read either since they are very early in the game. I can make out the FL style in several of them but I don't know much about her meta. In the moment I would read very slightly pro-town on them but the conversion rate to now doesn't give them a solid read in my opinion.

Raging Wishbone is attempting to pass this off as me playing survival but that was never the case. I was instead pointing out how RW was giving Pesco a town read that I couldn't follow to that logical conclusion.
Raging Wishbone wrote:And my point is that you as town shouldn't be trying to discredit nyba if you actually do think they're town, and the fact you your first point is bascially meant to make me lean more towards lynching nyba than you while the second one is that you think nyba's town and I'm scum makes it look like all you're looking for is for someone else to get lynched
I think you missed the point entirely. I was pointing out how YOU were misguided on what Pesco did or did not do. They hardly pressed Yos at all and not on the reasons others did, which I took as a NULL TELL. You on the other hand give them a townie read that your now basing on a feel? But really you pointed towards their interactions with Yos, which made me suspicious of you because you did not say why and I suspected you just made it up.

I am saying that you are crediting nyballs, perhaps to get them on your side. I was not discrediting nyballs because I did not suspect them or Pesco. I suspected how you elevated Pesco, therefore I suspected you!
Raging Wishbone wrote:Highly manipulative. Again you draw that false dichotomy - why you completely rule out nyba (and to a lesser extent orhoops) is beyond me unless you know they're town and think you'll have the easiest time getting us lynched.
I’ve only ever thought they were pro-town when I’ve said anything at all. I can explain why they are pro-town if you want, though I’m not trying to change your vote and I don’t think Ortohoops is considering voting them either. It’s more important now to focus on who I will vote for, not who I won’t.
Raging Wishbone wrote:Then there's the "scum tendencies" thing, which basically draws the equation that scummy = a person not voting Yos, but is absurd since by using the term "hard voting" he groups him and us together, even though Walt and I voted Yos, while he didn't. Votes can be seen as genuine to different extents, but there's no such thing as "hard voting". You either vote or you don't.
The “not hard voting” was an example of how you are perceived as possible town with scum tendencies. If I were analyzing myself I would probably use the example “investigating Yos without voting”.

I’m grouping us together only because to an outsider our actions could have been stronger on the Yos wagon.
Raging Wishbone wrote:Why is this a better explanation than simple disagreement between two townies sharing the same role?
To be clear, I was turning these questions into scum conclusions to see if they make sense. I am at the stage where I cannot possibly see anyone else as scum, because there is no one else. For the sake of undecided people I can compile the neutral aspects of the case again but I am already decided for myself and want to hear from the undecided.
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Post Post #623 (isolation #31) » Mon May 11, 2009 8:32 am

Post by J-Scope »

Raging Wishbone wrote:You don't use your analysis of nyba as a followup to questioning me or showing why you suspect me, you just contradict my point (thereby hopefully making him look worse to me) and go on to declare him pro town.
I did ask you questions; those two at the top of the post. I was going to explain once you had explained your initial claim. I couldn’t show you why until you had the chance to give the complete answer. Now that you did I still am not satisfied; you had a feeling that Pesco was being genuine but I still don’t see how one would come to that conclusion over another conclusion since the Pesco appeared to respond to Yos neutrally, not as a town or scum or someone you’d really like to watch closer.

How would a scum-Pesco be unable to make that post?
Raging Wishbone wrote:And yet, there's a very clear cut difference between voting Yos and not voting Yos which you where trying to blur with your invention of "hard voting".
True enough. I don’t want to blur the merits of our actions but I do want to distinctly analyze them.

Say on a scale of 1 to 10, how much attention did we pay to the wagon? How often or much did we suspect them? How did we try to push towards a lynch or away from one? Then add the fact that you voting and I only FoS’ed. And what is more likely for scum to do?

I’ll come back to this later.
Raging Wishbone wrote:For everyone's benefit, above is a link to the aformentioned boost mafia, where Jahudo played somewhat similarly to here and got lynched d1 as GF.
That may provide an accurate representation of how I fight tooth and nail not to get lynched, but I do that as town too; even if the game is statistically won and people tell me to just go quietly (I don’t). Examples:

http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=10237
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=10165

Is that what you were getting at by “played” or do you mean my offense?
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Post Post #625 (isolation #32) » Mon May 11, 2009 10:55 am

Post by J-Scope »

Raging Wishbone wrote:Your post doesn't look at all like it was intended as an attack of me, and anyways the attack you now try to present it as to cover the scumtell I blamed you of really sucks.
Why does it suck?

Raging Wishbone wrote:I mostly mean the "contributing a reasonable amount to the game while flying just under the radar" vibe I get from you in both games. I think it's a smart approach for scum to take.
Can you elaborate? Would you say I've flown under the radar at a consistent level throughout the game?

In day 1 I still thought I had a partner and I tried to organize joint posts to no avail, so I ended up trying to analyze for the both of us; to keep up like everybody else was, and I think I got bogged down to where I wasn't always living in the moment. Honestly I don't think it affected my game that much, but there could have been a drop-off of activity in the beginning.
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Post Post #628 (isolation #33) » Mon May 11, 2009 3:22 pm

Post by J-Scope »

Raging Wishbone wrote:I find it hard to believe you have nothing you can post and you did not communitcate with her at all when this game started. I see the K-scope left, but did you not talk to her after you got your roles? Did you not send her a pm or did she not send you a pm? Don't you think one off the first things everyone did in this game was speak to their partner?
The most he ever said to me was something like "I'll read the thread when I have more time". He really has been gone from the start.

I did send him reads I was thinking but I talked about both games.
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Post Post #635 (isolation #34) » Tue May 12, 2009 2:33 am

Post by J-Scope »

I'll attempt to post a picture but there will be some censoring.

It's possible that RW had planned out this breaking strategy in advance. I don't know how much or little some people talked strategy with their partners, but they might have asked if this was a rule and saw the benefit. When they talk about Yos they clearly make it known they are not on his side.

Ortohoops, is there anything else you could add? Those posts don't look indicative of town or scum. It's odd that you would place RW into a second scumgroup but I guess at the time you didn't think scum would bus.

I'm stuck between a rock and a hard place. Ortohoops-scum would have had to do the high risk-high reward of bussing Yos early and hard; RW-scum would have had the foresight to plan an accurate fake conversation. I guess I have to throw them out the window and go with my reads; RW looked suspicious in my re-read so I'm sticking with him.
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Post Post #637 (isolation #35) » Tue May 12, 2009 3:45 am

Post by J-Scope »

You've already decided have you?

Can someone explain why nyballs was killed? I knew we all said we wouldn't lynch Orto or nyballs, but all this time I thought Orto was more town. I can't tell if it's supposed to be a strategy or something.

Image

Image

Image
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Post Post #638 (isolation #36) » Tue May 12, 2009 3:51 am

Post by J-Scope »

The top shows when and how I told him about the QT i created.

The censored stuff is beta talk. I stopped using the QT because K-Scope didn't keep his promise of getting back into the game after he responded to that PM on the bottom.

I'm sticking with my read.

Vote: Raging Wishbone
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Post Post #639 (isolation #37) » Tue May 12, 2009 4:09 am

Post by J-Scope »

unvote


on second thought I'll see what RW thinks about orto's private communications.
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Post Post #645 (isolation #38) » Tue May 12, 2009 8:31 am

Post by J-Scope »

Raging Wishbone wrote:EVERY SINGLE one, the posts are all in reverse order. Look at our and Jscopes posts from this game, the posts are numbered in reverse order!!!

The ONLY daytalk that starts at 1 and goes in a choronological (by dates, post number) order is Ortohoops. I am not going to vote I would like to hear what you Jscope and RR think. I also would like to hear if Ortohoops has a logical explanation for this, but those are my feelings....
We should see if Ortohoops can explain it.

I think a big issue with their QT is that posts 1-5 don't distinguish what they are or what they have been looking for. Anyone could speculate if there is a second mafia if they didn't read the rules.

Their Post 5 by Hoops has a large white box that goes far past her one sentence. There was certainly something there, as there was at least a post 6. Was all of this beta talk?
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Post Post #659 (isolation #39) » Tue May 12, 2009 2:43 pm

Post by J-Scope »

I realized why the posts are in a different order. There is a button on that blue bar to the left of the orange “Post a New Message” button. Next to the word “Messages” is a arrow. If you click it the post order reverses. Ortohoops might have clicked it from default or it defaulted that way for some reason. It doesn’t look important anymore.
ortolan wrote:
J-Scope (637) wrote:Can someone explain why nyballs was killed? I knew we all said we wouldn't lynch Orto or nyballs, but all this time I thought Orto was more town. I can't tell if it's supposed to be a strategy or something.
HELLO THIS IS A BLATANT WIFOM ATTEMPT BY SCUM.

RW, because I'm pretty certain J-Scope is scum rather than you, I do hope you'll at
least
pay attention to the fact he was willing to vote you. He changed his mind when he realised I had every intention of voting him and when he thought he could WIFOM you into the choice of lynching me after we posted a scummy looking quicktopic (and after he chose to kill nyb instead of us then made a big song and dance routine about the fact, which is BLATANTLY scummy).
I reliaze those questions are more rhetorical and speculative, but I do not like how you add that "by scum" like you know it as a fact.

I voted because I was frustrated with how you were brushing off an attempt at legitimate debate in favor of this promise:
Ortohoops wrote:Yay that means I can vote you with impunity
You were baiting me with that post into getting emotional. I calmed down within a few minutes, mostly because I don't want this to end on a bad note when we have beta to finish.

Yes I was willing to vote him; did you not see the case I made against him? Why shouldn't he think I was leaning towards him with no current alternative?

Again you present the case that I killed nyballs because I killed him. I think it's circular reasoning because my speculation about nyballs did not attempt to accuse anyone of anything. It was my stream of consciousness wondering aloud; "like did nyballs hint at being a power role even after claiming vanilla?" If you inferred anything malicious from it, like I was going to assume there was a strategy to confuse people with a song and dance, you are reaching because I did not imply that.
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Post Post #661 (isolation #40) » Tue May 12, 2009 2:46 pm

Post by J-Scope »

I'm confused? What did hoops do?
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Post Post #680 (isolation #41) » Tue May 12, 2009 4:58 pm

Post by J-Scope »

That was a risky move to vote, RW. What is the biggest Ortohoops scumtell to you? Or was it more a collection of things like you say the QT, the ethics issue.

I want to look over today's action phase again, but I promise to be around alot tomorrow.

I'm also curious, which was Hoops' last post?
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Post Post #734 (isolation #42) » Wed May 13, 2009 12:36 am

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Ugh... Jahudo... you take care of this. I haven't been able to keep with this...
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Post Post #736 (isolation #43) » Wed May 13, 2009 2:18 am

Post by J-Scope »

Vote: Ortohoops


I'm sorry but I haven't been truthful. When RW voted I thought he was setting up a gambit (he misspelled the vote), and I wanted to make sure that Adel's rules allowed the vote to pass.

I am scum. I'm sorry for the cases you've made that weren't going to help you.
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