Suicide Bomber Mafia - GAME OVER - Fastest Large Theme Ever?


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Post Post #4 (isolation #0) » Sun May 17, 2009 4:11 pm

Post by Xylthixlm »

/confirm
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Post Post #5 (isolation #1) » Sun May 17, 2009 4:18 pm

Post by Xylthixlm »

Can we use our QTs pregame?
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Post Post #19 (isolation #2) » Mon May 18, 2009 10:17 am

Post by Xylthixlm »

That's 12!

Before anyone gets carried away, I should point out that according to the rules suicide bombing ends the day.

I expect this game to be a complete disaster anyways, but hey, I could be pleasantly surprised.
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Post Post #23 (isolation #3) » Mon May 18, 2009 11:07 am

Post by Xylthixlm »

Sir Tornado wrote:
vote Xyl
Hi. Got a reason?
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Post Post #25 (isolation #4) » Mon May 18, 2009 11:22 am

Post by Xylthixlm »

K.

Which do you think this game will be: a disaster, a complete disaster, or an unmitigated disaster?
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Post Post #27 (isolation #5) » Mon May 18, 2009 11:44 am

Post by Xylthixlm »

Well, I meant for the town. I've never seen a game where everyone could kill that wasn't some sort of disaster for the town.
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Post Post #30 (isolation #6) » Mon May 18, 2009 12:59 pm

Post by Xylthixlm »

Lynch targets should bomb instead of getting lynched, definitely. But wait for L-2 or even L-1 with someone intending to hammer. Don't assume you're the inevitable lynch just because someone whispers "bandwagon" in your general direction
*cough*Xtoxm*cough*
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Post Post #33 (isolation #7) » Mon May 18, 2009 1:10 pm

Post by Xylthixlm »

Crazy wrote:If they were town, then you get an extra town-directed kill; if they were scum, then they would have done that anyway.
Exactly. Think of it like a double-lynch day except the first lynch chooses the second lynch.
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Post Post #35 (isolation #8) » Mon May 18, 2009 1:17 pm

Post by Xylthixlm »

Sir Tornado wrote:I am going on the assumption that the person being lynched is scum
Very bad assumption.
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Post Post #37 (isolation #9) » Mon May 18, 2009 1:26 pm

Post by Xylthixlm »

Let's break it down.

If the person being lynched is scum, then it would be nice to stop them from bombing, but it's unlikely to work. Even if you commit to speedlynching anyone who gets to, say, L-3, scum will just bomb at L-4. And planning to speedlynch anyone who gets to L-3 is a bad plan in itself.

If the person being lynched is town, having them bomb instead of being lynched is good: it gives an extra kill which is guaranteed to be town-directed. I am
not
suggesting that the person bombs who the town wants them to bomb. We can't enforce that anyways. They'll bomb whoever they want, but at least we know it's a town player making the choice.

Add in the fact that, just on statistics, we'll probably lynch several townies before the first scum, and you can see that giving the lynched player a chance to bomb is a very good idea.
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Post Post #38 (isolation #10) » Mon May 18, 2009 1:28 pm

Post by Xylthixlm »

Sir Tornado wrote:
Xyl wrote:Very bad assumption.
Why would anyone want to lynch a person they don't think is scum?
I always try to lynch the person I think is most likely to be scum, but I accept the fact that statistically, I will be wrong more often than not (especially day 1). If you can actually get a better than 50% success rate on day 1 lynches I'd love to know your secret.
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Post Post #40 (isolation #11) » Mon May 18, 2009 2:08 pm

Post by Xylthixlm »

Sir Tornado wrote:Aren't we more likely to end up with 2 dead townies instead of having 1 townie and 1 scum dead?
Correct but irrelevant. You are comparing the wrong probabilities.
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Post Post #41 (isolation #12) » Mon May 18, 2009 2:26 pm

Post by Xylthixlm »

Huh. I did the actual math in Excel, assuming random lynches/bombs and that scum will always bomb a townie before dying. It turns out to be better to lynch rather than bomb about 2/3 of the time. So yeah, some confidence that you're going to do better than random would be good.

Code: Select all

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
2	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
3	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
4	1.00	0.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
5	1.00	0.40	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
6	1.00	0.58	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
7	1.00	0.64	0.26	0.00	0.00	0.00
8	1.00	0.64	0.19	0.00	0.00	0.00
9	1.00	0.68	0.33	0.00	0.00	0.00
10	1.00	0.71	0.41	0.14	0.00	0.00
11	1.00	0.71	0.39	0.09	0.00	0.00
12	1.00	0.74	0.45	0.19	0.00	0.00
13	1.00	0.76	0.50	0.25	0.08	0.00
14	1.00	0.76	0.49	0.23	0.05	0.00
15	1.00	0.77	0.53	0.29	0.11	0.00

	0	1	2	3	4	5
3		Lynch				
4		Bomb				
5		Bomb	Lynch			
6		Lynch	Lynch			
7		Bomb	Bomb	Lynch		
8		Lynch	Bomb	Lynch		
9		Lynch	Lynch	Lynch	Lynch	
10		Bomb	Bomb	Bomb	Lynch	
11		Lynch	Lynch	Bomb	Lynch	Lynch
12		Lynch	Lynch	Lynch	Lynch	Lynch
13		Bomb	Bomb	Bomb	Bomb	Lynch
14		Lynch	Lynch	Lynch	Bomb	Lynch
15		Lynch	Lynch	Lynch	Lynch	Lynch
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Post Post #42 (isolation #13) » Mon May 18, 2009 2:30 pm

Post by Xylthixlm »

Aaand correcting my math to consider nolynch as a possibility. All this assumes the scum have one nightkill and there's no power roles, so grain of salt.

Code: Select all

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
2	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
3	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
4	1.00	0.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
5	1.00	0.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
6	1.00	0.58	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
7	1.00	0.64	0.26	0.00	0.00	0.00
8	1.00	0.64	0.26	0.00	0.00	0.00
9	1.00	0.68	0.33	0.00	0.00	0.00
10	1.00	0.71	0.41	0.14	0.00	0.00
11	1.00	0.71	0.41	0.14	0.00	0.00
12	1.00	0.74	0.45	0.19	0.00	0.00
13	1.00	0.76	0.50	0.25	0.08	0.00
14	1.00	0.76	0.50	0.25	0.08	0.00
15	1.00	0.77	0.53	0.29	0.11	0.00

3		Lynch				
4		Bomb				
5		Nolynch	Lynch			
6		Lynch	Lynch			
7		Bomb	Bomb	Lynch		
8		Nolynch	Nolynch	Lynch		
9		Lynch	Lynch	Lynch	Lynch	
10		Bomb	Bomb	Bomb	Lynch	
11		Nolynch	Nolynch	Nolynch	Lynch	Lynch
12		Lynch	Lynch	Lynch	Lynch	Lynch
13		Bomb	Bomb	Bomb	Bomb	Lynch
14		Nolynch	Nolynch	Nolynch	Nolynch	Lynch
15		Lynch	Lynch	Lynch	Lynch	Lynch
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Post Post #43 (isolation #14) » Mon May 18, 2009 2:33 pm

Post by Xylthixlm »

It would also help if I remembered that scum can't bomb one of the last two townies, nightkill the other, and win.
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Post Post #44 (isolation #15) » Mon May 18, 2009 2:35 pm

Post by Xylthixlm »

Okay, THESE numbers should be correct.

Code: Select all

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
2	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
3	1.00	0.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
4	1.00	0.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
5	1.00	0.73	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
6	1.00	0.78	0.40	0.00	0.00	0.00
7	1.00	0.78	0.40	0.00	0.00	0.00
8	1.00	0.81	0.48	0.00	0.00	0.00
9	1.00	0.83	0.56	0.23	0.00	0.00
10	1.00	0.83	0.56	0.23	0.00	0.00
11	1.00	0.84	0.60	0.30	0.00	0.00
12	1.00	0.86	0.64	0.38	0.13	0.00
13	1.00	0.86	0.64	0.38	0.13	0.00
14	1.00	0.87	0.67	0.43	0.18	0.00
15	1.00	0.88	0.70	0.48	0.25	0.08

	0	1	2	3	4	5
3		Bomb				
4		Nolynch				
5		Lynch				
6		Bomb	Bomb			
7		Nolynch	Nolynch			
8		Lynch	Lynch			
9		Bomb	Bomb	Bomb		
10		Nolynch	Nolynch	Nolynch		
11		Lynch	Lynch	Lynch		
12		Bomb	Bomb	Bomb	Bomb	
13		Nolynch	Nolynch	Nolynch	Nolynch	
14		Lynch	Lynch	Lynch	Lynch	
15		Bomb	Bomb	Bomb	Bomb	Bomb
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Post Post #51 (isolation #16) » Tue May 19, 2009 4:26 am

Post by Xylthixlm »

Pariah wrote:Tempted to suicide Xylthixlm for posting too much.

A clear sign of scum is such interest in the game!
You obviously haven't played with me before. :D
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Post Post #55 (isolation #17) » Tue May 19, 2009 7:56 am

Post by Xylthixlm »

Bah, Fritzler sucks. Like really. Totally sucks.
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Post Post #136 (isolation #18) » Wed May 27, 2009 9:35 am

Post by Xylthixlm »

I think the postmortem on this one can be summed up with "Bah, Fritzler sucks".
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Post Post #138 (isolation #19) » Wed May 27, 2009 9:36 am

Post by Xylthixlm »

crywolf20084 wrote:Btw the
game
players
sucked. Everyone was all rawr and trigger happy. Killed the goddamn discussion.
Fixed.
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Post Post #140 (isolation #20) » Wed May 27, 2009 9:43 am

Post by Xylthixlm »

Take away the suicide bombs, give everyone an (optional) vengeful kill when they're lynched. Same balance, but it makes it harder to screw up.
Although I know people will try to get themselves lynched so that they can get the vengeful kill.
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Post Post #143 (isolation #21) » Wed May 27, 2009 9:49 am

Post by Xylthixlm »

My cell had no conversation whatsoever.
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Post Post #144 (isolation #22) » Wed May 27, 2009 9:50 am

Post by Xylthixlm »

It would have been interesting if the game had started with in-cell conversations. But the result would probably have been the same.
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Post Post #146 (isolation #23) » Wed May 27, 2009 9:56 am

Post by Xylthixlm »

In theory the fact that blowing yourself up when you're not about to be lynched lowers the town's chance of winning should limit the random bombings.

Part of the problem is that most players, most of the time, are more confident in their judgement than they actually should be. "I'm totally sure X is scum, so I'll bomb him and take out a scum!"
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Post Post #149 (isolation #24) » Wed May 27, 2009 11:48 am

Post by Xylthixlm »

Thanks for the game, MoS. I was expecting a complete disaster, and you delivered. :twisted:
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Post Post #151 (isolation #25) » Wed May 27, 2009 11:58 am

Post by Xylthixlm »

Xylthixlm wrote:I've never seen a game where everyone could kill that wasn't some sort of disaster for the town.
And I
still
haven't. :twisted:
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Post Post #161 (isolation #26) » Mon Jun 01, 2009 8:34 pm

Post by Xylthixlm »

There's obviously some effect which causes town results in these games to be worse than the EVs would indicate. I propose we name this effect "The Fritzler factor".
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Post Post #180 (isolation #27) » Mon Jun 08, 2009 12:26 pm

Post by Xylthixlm »

I was totally not surprised by how the game turned out.
Xylthixlm wrote:Which do you think this game will be: a disaster, a complete disaster, or an unmitigated disaster?
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