Suicide Bomber Mafia - GAME OVER - Fastest Large Theme Ever?

[Xylthixlm]

K.

Which do you think this game will be: a disaster, a complete disaster, or an unmitigated disaster?

[Sir Tornado]

Which do you think this game will be: a disaster, a complete disaster, or an unmitigated disaster?

Every game is a disaster, a complete disaster as well as an unmitigated disaster for

someone

.

[Xylthixlm]

Well, I meant for the town. I've never seen a game where everyone could kill that wasn't some sort of disaster for the town.

[Sir Tornado]

Well, I meant for the town. I've never seen a game where everyone could kill that wasn't some sort of disaster for the town.

This depends on the alignments of 2 or 3 loose cannons in the players list :p

[Crazy]

Meh, I don't think people will be as willing to kill when it means it's the end of the game for them.

However, I'd be surprised if a whole day goes by without someone suiciding; if anything, the popular lynch target will.

[Xylthixlm]

Lynch targets should bomb instead of getting lynched, definitely. But wait for L-2 or even L-1 with someone intending to hammer. Don't assume you're the inevitable lynch just because someone whispers "bandwagon" in your general direction

*cough*Xtoxm*cough*

[Sir Tornado]

Lynch targets should bomb instead of getting lynched

This is just daft.

[Crazy]

Lynch targets should bomb instead of getting lynched

This is just daft.

Hmm, I agree, actually. If they were town, then you get an extra town-directed kill; if they were scum, then they would have done that anyway.

[Xylthixlm]

If they were town, then you get an extra town-directed kill; if they were scum, then they would have done that anyway.

Exactly. Think of it like a double-lynch day except the first lynch chooses the second lynch.

[Sir Tornado]

Hmm, I agree, actually. If they were town, then you get an extra town-directed kill; if they were scum, then they would have done that anyway.

I am going on the assumption that the person being lynched is scum, because that is clearly our aim; in which case we should try to make sure (s)he does not get an opportunity to bomb anyone.

We cannot assume the person being lynched is a townie and he will bomb whoever the town wants him to bomb. If we do, then why are we lynching that person anyway?

[Xylthixlm]

I am going on the assumption that the person being lynched is scum

Very bad assumption.

[Sir Tornado]

Very bad assumption.

Why would anyone want to lynch a person they don't think is scum?

[Xylthixlm]

Let's break it down.

If the person being lynched is scum, then it would be nice to stop them from bombing, but it's unlikely to work. Even if you commit to speedlynching anyone who gets to, say, L-3, scum will just bomb at L-4. And planning to speedlynch anyone who gets to L-3 is a bad plan in itself.

If the person being lynched is town, having them bomb instead of being lynched is good: it gives an extra kill which is guaranteed to be town-directed. I am

not

suggesting that the person bombs who the town wants them to bomb. We can't enforce that anyways. They'll bomb whoever they want, but at least we know it's a town player making the choice.

Add in the fact that, just on statistics, we'll probably lynch several townies before the first scum, and you can see that giving the lynched player a chance to bomb is a very good idea.

[Xylthixlm]

Very bad assumption.

Why would anyone want to lynch a person they don't think is scum?

I always try to lynch the person I think is most likely to be scum, but I accept the fact that statistically, I will be wrong more often than not (especially day 1). If you can actually get a better than 50% success rate on day 1 lynches I'd love to know your secret.

[Sir Tornado]

If the person being lynched is scum, then it would be nice to stop them from bombing, but it's unlikely to work. Even if you commit to speedlynching anyone who gets to, say, L-3, scum will just bomb at L-4. And planning to speedlynch anyone who gets to L-3 is a bad plan in itself.

This is the biggest problem we face. In an ideal world, we would not want to give anyone a chance to bomb, but I have a feeling we wouldn't be able to replicate that here. But, what we can do, is agree that a townie should bomb someone (even when (s)he is being lynched) only if he is reasonably sure the person he is bombing is scum.

Add in the fact that, just on statistics, we'll probably lynch several townies before the first scum, and you can see that giving the lynched player a chance to bomb is a very good idea.

I always try to lynch the person I think is most likely to be scum, but I accept the fact that statistically, I will be wrong more often than not (especially day 1). If you can actually get a better than 50% success rate on day 1 lynches I'd love to know your secret.

And, statistically, the bombed targets are also more likely to be town. If you think that the town does not have a good chance of hitting scum on day 1, what makes you think that the person being lynched (if (s)he is town) has? Aren't we more likely to end up with 2 dead townies instead of having 1 townie and 1 scum dead?

[Xylthixlm]

Aren't we more likely to end up with 2 dead townies instead of having 1 townie and 1 scum dead?

Correct but irrelevant. You are comparing the wrong probabilities.

[Xylthixlm]

Huh. I did the actual math in Excel, assuming random lynches/bombs and that scum will always bomb a townie before dying. It turns out to be better to lynch rather than bomb about 2/3 of the time. So yeah, some confidence that you're going to do better than random would be good.

Code: Select all

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
2	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
3	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
4	1.00	0.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
5	1.00	0.40	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
6	1.00	0.58	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
7	1.00	0.64	0.26	0.00	0.00	0.00
8	1.00	0.64	0.19	0.00	0.00	0.00
9	1.00	0.68	0.33	0.00	0.00	0.00
10	1.00	0.71	0.41	0.14	0.00	0.00
11	1.00	0.71	0.39	0.09	0.00	0.00
12	1.00	0.74	0.45	0.19	0.00	0.00
13	1.00	0.76	0.50	0.25	0.08	0.00
14	1.00	0.76	0.49	0.23	0.05	0.00
15	1.00	0.77	0.53	0.29	0.11	0.00

	0	1	2	3	4	5
3		Lynch				
4		Bomb				
5		Bomb	Lynch			
6		Lynch	Lynch			
7		Bomb	Bomb	Lynch		
8		Lynch	Bomb	Lynch		
9		Lynch	Lynch	Lynch	Lynch	
10		Bomb	Bomb	Bomb	Lynch	
11		Lynch	Lynch	Bomb	Lynch	Lynch
12		Lynch	Lynch	Lynch	Lynch	Lynch
13		Bomb	Bomb	Bomb	Bomb	Lynch
14		Lynch	Lynch	Lynch	Bomb	Lynch
15		Lynch	Lynch	Lynch	Lynch	Lynch

[Xylthixlm]

Aaand correcting my math to consider nolynch as a possibility. All this assumes the scum have one nightkill and there's no power roles, so grain of salt.

Code: Select all

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
2	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
3	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
4	1.00	0.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
5	1.00	0.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
6	1.00	0.58	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
7	1.00	0.64	0.26	0.00	0.00	0.00
8	1.00	0.64	0.26	0.00	0.00	0.00
9	1.00	0.68	0.33	0.00	0.00	0.00
10	1.00	0.71	0.41	0.14	0.00	0.00
11	1.00	0.71	0.41	0.14	0.00	0.00
12	1.00	0.74	0.45	0.19	0.00	0.00
13	1.00	0.76	0.50	0.25	0.08	0.00
14	1.00	0.76	0.50	0.25	0.08	0.00
15	1.00	0.77	0.53	0.29	0.11	0.00

3		Lynch				
4		Bomb				
5		Nolynch	Lynch			
6		Lynch	Lynch			
7		Bomb	Bomb	Lynch		
8		Nolynch	Nolynch	Lynch		
9		Lynch	Lynch	Lynch	Lynch	
10		Bomb	Bomb	Bomb	Lynch	
11		Nolynch	Nolynch	Nolynch	Lynch	Lynch
12		Lynch	Lynch	Lynch	Lynch	Lynch
13		Bomb	Bomb	Bomb	Bomb	Lynch
14		Nolynch	Nolynch	Nolynch	Nolynch	Lynch
15		Lynch	Lynch	Lynch	Lynch	Lynch

[Xylthixlm]

It would also help if I remembered that scum can't bomb one of the last two townies, nightkill the other, and win.

[Xylthixlm]

Okay, THESE numbers should be correct.

Code: Select all

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
2	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
3	1.00	0.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
4	1.00	0.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
5	1.00	0.73	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
6	1.00	0.78	0.40	0.00	0.00	0.00
7	1.00	0.78	0.40	0.00	0.00	0.00
8	1.00	0.81	0.48	0.00	0.00	0.00
9	1.00	0.83	0.56	0.23	0.00	0.00
10	1.00	0.83	0.56	0.23	0.00	0.00
11	1.00	0.84	0.60	0.30	0.00	0.00
12	1.00	0.86	0.64	0.38	0.13	0.00
13	1.00	0.86	0.64	0.38	0.13	0.00
14	1.00	0.87	0.67	0.43	0.18	0.00
15	1.00	0.88	0.70	0.48	0.25	0.08

	0	1	2	3	4	5
3		Bomb				
4		Nolynch				
5		Lynch				
6		Bomb	Bomb			
7		Nolynch	Nolynch			
8		Lynch	Lynch			
9		Bomb	Bomb	Bomb		
10		Nolynch	Nolynch	Nolynch		
11		Lynch	Lynch	Lynch		
12		Bomb	Bomb	Bomb	Bomb	
13		Nolynch	Nolynch	Nolynch	Nolynch	
14		Lynch	Lynch	Lynch	Lynch	
15		Bomb	Bomb	Bomb	Bomb	Bomb

[Claus]

vote: Crazy

Go Go Go!

[Pariah]

Tempted to suicide Xylthixlm for posting too much.

A clear sign of scum is such interest in the game!

[Pariah]

It's also his birthday, so I'm further tempted to kill him as a present.

Besides, he makes TWO people who have x names.

Although the wisest choice might be Fritzler - simply because he'll kill with his first post.

[Empking]

Fritzler; Post or die.

Vote: Fritzler

[Pariah]

Empking; Post or die

Vote: Empking