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Post Post #191 (isolation #0) » Mon May 18, 2009 1:13 am

Post by ortolan »

PTA (182) wrote:In this game:
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=8926
I PF was scum. And everybody (Town and Scum) tried to use DGB (Who was a very powerful Vig) to kill other players since you were allowed 2 day kills a day and or only 1 lynch. Not even for a second did my scum group think of killing DGB. etc. etc.
This is pretty much a point made with a sample size of one in a game with different circumstances. In this game the vidge/SK gets to make a new kill every action phase in a smallish game. Additionally not knowing whether they are town or self-aligned makes their actions unpredictable to other scum-players. Scum players would also potentially be scared of town reaching consensus on who the vidge/SK should kill and targetting them or their scumbuddies. Finally I see him as, if he was scum, wanting to not have to waste his kill on him that action phase (surely he'd prefer to get him lynched and choose a different target). As I said it's not an overwhelming town tell but I still view it as a town tell nonetheless.
PTA (82) wrote:They said our wagon was oportunistic and that scum wouldn't post fluff; they helped lynch A&B with that attitude. They said my wagon was originally oportunistic and scum would avoid fluff; now they are on our wagon and say scum would do fluff. They said we fluff posted; Hoops did some too.

Basically they are going back on some key points of their logic as well as commiting things they once deemed wrong. I see that as hypocracy.
This summarises the main two points we are being attacked for this game: the first is supposedly "fluff posting" while attacking others for fluff posting. Now I acknowledge that some of what Hoops posted was sloppy, especially when she then wanted to attack other people for wasting posts. However, in the scheme of things, none of our posts have been as wasteful as for example PTA's or Zmd's or Death The Hogfather's or Korts' or J-Scope's or Zaphod Beeblebrox's; all of whom have made at least one post
entirely
devoid of game or meta related content from my brief check of the last few pages.

The other point is that "our" read on PTA differed between different points in the game. As should have been obvious from for example, the difference in purple and black text, that was two different people reading. Hoops made the first post without consulting me, and while I was doing Alpha I kind of expected her to post here but she had to move countries so when we got prodded I took it upon myself to make the post and could not ignore PTA's blatant scumminess- I could not consult her at the time and still haven't had a proper opportunity to talk to her about this game. Nevertheless, I very much disagree with PTA's wagon being "opportunistic". So, PTA, with my rebuttal to these two points in mind, I would urge you to very strongly reconsider your view you are not OMGUSing us, as neither of your points have merit imo (your case against us in light of these points is even weaker which leads me to wonder how much scumhunting rather than OMGUSing scum-style you're actually trying to do).
Korts (183) wrote:i agree with pokethealpaca on zaphod trying hard to look pro-town with her post-lynch a+b analysis. her defense hinges on people actually caring whether she found the already lynched sk scummy. all in all it looks like padding for her post.

vote zaphod
Weeeeeak vote.
Korts (183) wrote:the vig claim would obviously be stupid as mafia, it was from zaphod's initial ignorance of the a+b wagon that we suspected her, and the sudden switch and hard push on it implied hard bussing--which we would expect dgbscum to do in such a case.
Except they're not scum with A&B?
Korts (183) wrote:the pta vs. ortohoops argument is pretty hypocritical of both re the fluffposting. both are reasonable wagons. we'll have to review them more seriously to have a solid opinion.
Um, you've made at least two entirely useless posts in this game (see your subsequent post, 184, as well as 174). This puts you on far, far worse footing than us, however hypocritical you want to be; sorry about that. Consider a self-vote though.
Yosariwen (185) wrote:Seriously? I spent 2 hours last night doing a hyper-detailed analysis of everything in the entiere game and every single person in the game, probably the longest and most meticulasly reserached scumhunting post I've done in any game all year, and that's your response? I find that kind of strange, honestly.
WIFOM? This being valid hinges on you actually being town.
Yoswen (185) wrote:
Ortohoops wrote:Basically, you want to lynch twice within the next four pages, and "want to get a bandwagon going quickly here."
Yes, I would like to. Of course, lynching scum is more important then lynching quickly. Also, 4 pages is 100 posts; that should be pleanty of time to lynch someone (unless people keep wasting posts like Korts just did there).
I cannot understand how you can simultaneously want as many lynches as quickly as possible, and blatantly be trying to start a new wagon.
Because I want to lynch scum, and for reasons i explained, Raging Wishbone looks scummer to both me and to Nuwen then PTA does.

Remember, I *STARTED* the poke the alpaca wagon. I understand why he looks suspicious, and I continued to point out scumtells in the post I just made. However, if he was scum, I would kind of expect the wagon to not feel quite so easy and unopposed. In fact, the only person who was opposed to the PTA wagon so far was...you, who said at the time:
Ortohoops wrote:At the moment, the PokeTheAlpaca wagon looks very opportunistic.
The point I am making is that calling for faster lynches then avoiding a healthy wagon on your "second" largest suspect in favour of your supposed first is disingenuous. And how can you prove your earlier vote on PTA wasn't simple distancing??? Your point about the "easy and unopposed wagon" I also do not like- that is an extremely subjective notion and you could potentially make that argument of pretty much any bandwagon in the game. Plus you've seen people's subsequent reticence in joining the PTA wagon anyhow. I also note you rely on the implied hypocrisy of our apparent "shift in opinions" here.
Yoswen (185) wrote:People are posting and not commenting on the wagon at all, which I don't like. Are you really suggesting that it's scummy for me to want people to comment on a wagon before we lynch someone? How the hell do you expect to find scum if you want to just lynch people without any discussion about them? In fact, if you really are a pro-town person who really do think PTA is scum; if you really did think he was scum, you should be DEMANDING that EVERYONE post comments about him before the lynch, because that would help us find scum partners later. I can't understand why any pro-town person would be opposed to people commenting on the PTA lynch before it happens; you need to explain this to me.
Where did I say I didn't want people commenting on his wagon? All I have said is that your position of both wanting more lynches while starting fresh new bandwagons and neglecting those of people you admit to find scummy is inconsistent.
Yoswen (185) wrote:The fact that no one is trying to do that either means the other scum are willing to just bus PTA, or else that the wagon is a bad one; the feel *OF THE BANDWAGON* on PTA is making me kind of nervous.
If PTA's buddies
were
busing him it still would be a fantastic wagon. I don't see how a *feel* can simultaneously make you think someone is being bused; or they are town and not being bused- surely those two circumstances would have unique and distinct tells?
Yoswen (185) wrote:If we get close to the (admittadly arbitraty) page 12 "deadline" I set, I might be willing to jump to the PTA wagon to secure a lynch before then. But there's absoltuy no reason to rush things; we've still got 4 pages left, and he's already at lynch -2, we have lots of time to explore other options, especally since he just looks scummier then PTA.
Wait didn't you say you wanted
two
lynches an action phase? Why would you switch wagons at an arbitrary point in day 12 anyway (apart from it being just before a new action phase)?
Yoswen (185) wrote:That was the argument I used to start the PTA wagon in the first place. So don't act like you "don't understand why I find them scummy" when YOU are trying to ride MY coattails to attack them, ok?
How does observing apparently the same things as you constitute "riding your coattails"? Why is it not plausible that you attempted to distance from PTA and are now trying to undermine his wagon having seen it go too far?
Yoswen (185) wrote:I am curious about the other arguments you were trying to use in 154, because the REST of the arguments you were using to attack him seemed pretty illogical to me, and I would like you to explain them. Especally wher you attack him because he attacked Zaphod for not voting; "not voting" is generally a decent scumtell, and especally in a game like this where you should really be using your vote at all times.

Although apparently, rather then explain your attacks on PTA, or respond to my reasons for thinking Raging Wishbone looks scummier, you'd rather just attack anyone who dosn't blindly follow you. Nice.
I don't even understand your point about Zaphod not voting- I just looked back and they were voting the whole time and were actively commenting on the A&B wagon while it was going on. It's also funny that you comment on this while seemingly completely ignoring PokerFace's almost total and blatant ignoring of the situation in post 99. Apart from this, again, I ask, explain to you what was illogical about our attacks on PTA- I've asked you to clarify twice now and you totally ignore the question.
Yoswen (185) wrote:Ok, your first sentance is complete garbage. Me and Nuwen were talking as I was writing that post, she made the observations, and I agreed with them. Why should it matter to you if the thought origionally came from me or from Nuwen? Why are you making such a big deal out of irrelevent side issues here?
It seemed to me you wanted to have it both ways and were introducing Nuwen's supposed read as a way of segueing from supporting a PTA lynch to an RW lynch. I thought you yourself were disowning responsibility for the attack on RW- if you yourself are happy to support your hydra's attack on RW I would drop this point.
Yoswen (185) wrote:First, the one head put him at lynch -1 without giving him a chance to claim, right after that had been pointed out to be anti-town, since scum can insta-lynch anyone who is at lynch -1 in this game by just daykilling someone not on the wagon. At the very least, this demonstrates a carelessness that looks scummy.

Then, the other head saying "let's keep the SK alive so we can direct him" is even worse, in my opinion.

I said it was anti-town, and it was. Anti-town means "bad for the town". There is absolutly no reason a pro-town person should want to keep a SK alive, just in order to "direct the kill." Especally in a game when town can lynch multiple times a day anyway.

Lynching a SK day 1 is one of the best things that can possibly happen for the town; it extends the game, means less nightkills, more lynches. In general, nightkills give the town much less information then lynches do, so they hurt the town more then they hurt the mafia.
The problem is these two don't work in conjunction. You are attempting to have your cake and eat it too. You want to call him scummy for being "careless" by leaving an SK on L-1, but you also want to attack him for not wanting the SK killed.
Yoswen (185) wrote:Wait...really?

You were trying to argue that RW wanting to keep the SK alive was a *TOWN* tell?

Hahaha.

Man, you make this easy. I think we just found RW's scumbuddy here.
Fos:Ortohoops
Um...are you seriously claiming not to have understood the point we've just been contesting in the last serious of posts? And you think that's a justification for FoSing me at that????
Raging Wishbone (186) wrote:@Othohoops - great gane in Alpha, I am sorry I was pressured on time and did not know if RR would have a chance to check the thread before I returned today... He called JScope scum in daytalk and I screwed it up by not voting with ya! *gah* I almost quit tooo!, lol

Posting these notes here because Adel locked the Alpha thread and I owe Hoops, Raging Rabbit an apology for botching that game, I also owe Jscope sincere props and Kudos...also thanks to Adel for setting these games up...

*pinches Santa Claus ass*
No hard feelings, friend.
Raging Wishbone (186) wrote:This ain't the Alpha game, I know Tajo will flip town and it ain't cause I am scum! But than again he aint getting lynched today I hope!
I am kind of curious about this- we seem to agree that Yosarian is suspicious but in my mind that's largely because of the way he's detracting from the PTA wagon, while you're assuring us he's obv-town.
Ojando (187) wrote:See the bolded part from the quote. I wouldn't have thought that needed clarification in this game. Post wasting is inherently bad, since it was on first page I labeled it questionable instead of a stronger word.
I would like to see you attack the large number of people who are even more guilty of it than us even harder then please.
Ojando (187) wrote:That did come out more in a self-note mode.
We were referring to the "the other half did it" defence. Your heads seem to have very different take on things and that could be a convenient way to contradict yourself without having to take responsability. That being said, at the moment we are much more interested in pursuing PtA whose heads contradict timewise simultaneously in their attack and defence.
Believe me if I was scum I would try far harder to ensure our opinions supposedly appeared "united".
Ojando (187) wrote:This is the second time you say strongly that you find PTA town, I wish you would just get on and give your reasons for thinking so already.
You call Ortohoops' case on Yos brilliant, but at the same time that case relied mostly on the suspicion that PTA is scum. Contradiction?
I second this question.
Yos (188) wrote:Ok, now trying to bring emotion from the Alpha game, when I was scum, into the game here in order to manipluate the town. Scum tactic.
Um how exactly?
Yos (188) wrote:Interesting; he's at lynch -2 now, and Ortohoops entire post was him attacking me because I didn't put him at lynch -1 now. So why are you attacking me here?
He is at four votes which is actually L-3.
Yos (188) wrote:Although I think you're still just talking about the alpha game here, which again, is scummy.
???
Yos (188) wrote: Again, in this game, his ENTIRE CASE on me was based on me not wanting to put PTA at lynch -1 just yet. How can you think his case on me is "brilliant" if you don't think PTA is scum?
Fair point.
Yos (188) wrote:RW is obvscum here, and we need to lynch him now.
You sound
very
certain here.
Zaphod Beeblebrox (189) wrote:@ Yosariwen

I don't understand why you're voting RW when Poke is another main suspect of yours, has a far larger wagon, and you think Poke may be RW's buddy. To wit: "*10. PoketheAlpaca (PokerFace+populartajo) : Along with the other things that have been pointed out, possible link to Raging Wishbone, in this post where he defends Raging wishbone. "
I concur, your excellency.
Yos (190) wrote:Because RW is far scummier.

Tajo is kind of scummy; he's more likely to be scum then a random lynch. On the other hand, RW is incredibly obvscum, especally after that last post of theirs where they came up with a series of really illogical and contradictory excuses to OMGUS vote me (while specifically denying they were OMGUS voting, of course :roll:) and tried to manipulate the town using the alpha game.

If we lynch tajo, I won't be unhappy, but I really want to lynch RW right now.
Your expressed reasons are, again, weak.
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Post Post #261 (isolation #1) » Mon Jun 01, 2009 12:57 am

Post by ortolan »

Sando (258) wrote:This seems like you just spent like 3 paragraphs saying why you thought Yos and PtA were linked, but now that you don't think that PtA is Shaft.ed's buddy, somehow they're both still suspects yet not linked, this doesn't make sense to me. Am I missing something here?
No. PTA is still independently scummy. This makes him more likely to be SK. I am also not ruling out Yoswen being scum with shaft.ed and defending a townie or SK inadvertently.
Sando (258) wrote:This is regarding Trotsky. I, however, agree with Trotsky. Compared to my usual gameplay I'm lurking in this game and it’s a real challenge to post content, part of that is inexperience, part of that is game-mechanic (post count = kills) and part of it is the hydra mechanic. All of it means that a meta based on 1 side of the hydra is completely useless, and a meta based on the hydra in totality is based of 1(?) other game.

You're right that we can't let it be used as an excuse to lurk, but I think everyone is aware that this mechanic makes everyone more lurky than usual. Merely saying 'you're lurking more than your town meta' shouldn't carry much weight I feel.
This is unfortunately not what we said. I am suspicious of him for the posts he has made, not just lurking, because he/they as a hydra are not making any attempt to deviate from the play which got them vigged in Alpha. Total fence-sitting and locking into "you or me" with DGB is definitely not pro-town play.

I don't understand Zmd's point about Frog. IIRC after lynching the SK they were concerned about dying and said:
Frog (137) wrote:You guys can start digging our grave once we're dead, and not a minute before, OK?

Since our mortality is on the line here, I feel it prudent to share every last thought I have on this game before our untimely demise.
If they were NK-immune SK, why is it optimal play to draw attention to the fact they are about to die, thereby making the fact they fail to
more
conspicuous?
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Post Post #399 (isolation #2) » Thu Jul 02, 2009 4:12 am

Post by ortolan »

vee are also here

why is Zmd town Zaphod especially in light of RW's flip?
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Post Post #403 (isolation #3) » Thu Jul 02, 2009 6:16 am

Post by ortolan »

vee want answers 2 399
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Post Post #404 (isolation #4) » Thu Jul 02, 2009 6:16 am

Post by ortolan »

vant*
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Post Post #457 (isolation #5) » Fri Jul 10, 2009 11:28 am

Post by ortolan »

I badly need to re-read.
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Post Post #479 (isolation #6) » Thu Jul 16, 2009 11:35 pm

Post by ortolan »

/me throws chair at Frog Dodging

there was clearly a roleblock or doctor protect contributing to the no kill, if it was a roleblocker someone knows who da scum is (actually I would be very suspicious if someone claimed roleblocker now having missed the opportunity to do so earlier)

therefore I'm more inclined to believe it resulted from a doctor protect. There are two scum left among 7 players. If the doctor claims now we get them confirmed and another townie confirmed (I'm highly skeptical a mafia doctor would protect against their own kill)- the scum can kill one but not the other, unless they counter-claim in which case we still have time to lynch each claimant to prevent fake-claiming. If we wait until LYOL before they claim, we're more than likely going to be drawn into a 50/50 if the mafia counter-claims them.

Therefore I advocate...mass claim! Any disagreements?
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Post Post #480 (isolation #7) » Thu Jul 16, 2009 11:41 pm

Post by ortolan »

Actually there is a flaw in that in that if the scum kill goes through today and we mislynch, if they kill again tomorrow then that brings it down to 4 players and they end-game. Which means we are *probably* going to be in MyoL now. No lynching seems advisable, and it may be better to leave the massclaim till tomorrow.
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Post Post #490 (isolation #8) » Sat Jul 18, 2009 3:48 am

Post by ortolan »

in terms of viable pairings you and nyb look good I must say

I like your prompt for them to post more in 139 having as far as I'm aware not mentioned them previously:
J-Scope (139) wrote:nyballs: Have you finished reading? Where are you?
Interestingly in nyb's re-read in 166 you're one of the few players they ignore.

Then in your next post you strangely don't mention them having prompted them to speak up- no reply to their catch up post (Post 172)

nyb doesn't mention you in 205 either,
or
in 209. When you post 210 that's not the first time you two have had adjacent posts (presumably after having had a nice little day-talk) WHERE YOU TOTALLY IGNORE ONE ANOTHER.

217 you make the whole song and dance routine about not thinking PTA is scum by virtue of SWSWC's flip (yes, I agree with this, FYI- doesn't make you town though). Again in your suspects or cleared players list you don't mention nyb at all.
J-Scope (420) wrote:You are right, shaft.ed’s killer would have to be a second SK and not a Vig. I can get on board with prioritizing the search for shaft.ed’s scumbuddies.

How much of SWSWC was Shaft.ed and how much was elvis_knits? I couldn't tell if e_k was contributing but I also don't know how either play. Does anyone know e_k enough to know if she would bus early on or maybe try to ignore scumbuddies?
This just reads like a caricature of hunting your buddies' partners.
nyb (242) wrote:PokeTheAlpaca - Well, wasn't really fond of the wagon by the last time I posted, and I think Shaft.ed's death, overall, doesn't say a lot. While it lowers the probability he was scum with them, it doesn't really speak much in terms of whether or not he's the 2nd serial killer.
This is the same point your buddy's been making even though you're yet to mention him.

But yer, for everyone else, just count the number of times they mention one another in subsequent posts. It's completely zilch, the only context J-Scope mentions nyb in is:
J-Scope (284) wrote:I am very sure Trotsky is at L-1 (with votes from ZMD, Ortohoops, Frog Dodge, nyballs, and RW)
J-Scope (297) wrote:Now that the second SK is gone I'm having trouble finding room for Alpacascum; I still don't think he is mafia with shaft.ed.
Not the first time you've distanced post-mortem like this. I find it amusing you've been so on my case over ignoring SWSWC's flip to begin with (which was a thread you stole from PTA anyhow).

J-Scope is still going to hyper-length to analyse SWSWC's scumbuddies in 317 and still totally ignoring nyb.
J-Scope (330) wrote:@ZMD: Is the voting analysis the only reason RW is on your suspect list? Why is RW higher than nyballs?
J-Scope (343) wrote:Can nyballs tell us where they stand?
(nyb votes in the very next post, again)

These are the only mentions they make of one another until post 382, where J-Scope's opinion of nyb is ambiguous- "please post more" pretty much.

Again nyb's response is adjacent to J-Scope's in 423. The language used to address J-Scope's questions in this post I find formal and neutral (distancing), in contrast to the answers to Zaphod and Zmd featuring more emotion and aggression respectively.
J-Scope (426) wrote:ZMD is scummy looking, but I think Zaphod is just plain scum.
Textbook distancing from the mislynch.
J-Scope (441) wrote:And nyballs needs to show some life before this day is over. (Hint: this day is almost over)
Why do they need to show more life, it's not like you ever find them scummy (or even mention them) even though you've hinted that they're lurking throughout the game.
J-Scope (451) wrote:ZMD has given very weak, subjective reasons for suspecting nyballs. The fact that he is promoting them so highly makes me worry he’s trying to bus (that's speculation for tomorrow and doesn't increase my suspicion on ZMD today), or that he’s not trying to analyze posts, but either way ZMD looks bad.
"I'm not gonna get on the townie wagon, but if his lynch falls through and my buddy gets lynched instead, I'll blame it on him"

note nyb and J-Scope both apparently have Zaphod as their scummiest, but nyb is not yet game to put a vote down.

nyb's list is particularly scummy because the two lowest down players are Zaphod and Ojanen and I see no feasible link between the two. It looks like the scum are set to lynch Zaphod and end-game us if their kill goes through today and tomorrow.
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Post Post #509 (isolation #9) » Wed Jul 22, 2009 4:50 pm

Post by ortolan »

If you are correct in implying that that's pretty much a standard distribution of adjacent posts then fair enough. I started to re-read you two when Kmd mentioned you were a likely scum-pair and perhaps it was confirmation bias that made me think your posts occurred adjacent to one another more than they would on average. I will check when I next re-read. Are you happy to lynch nyb at this point J-Scope?
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Post Post #512 (isolation #10) » Thu Jul 23, 2009 2:51 pm

Post by ortolan »

Lynch wrong today = dead tomorrow (assuming the scum kill is going to go through)

If we no lynch today (and the scum kill goes through) then we have 6 players tomorrow, we're still in LYOL (assuming the scum kill goes through) but with one fewer player
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Post Post #515 (isolation #11) » Sat Jul 25, 2009 9:31 pm

Post by ortolan »

nyb (513) wrote:Shanba: I have basically admitted to skimming this game. The problem is that it's not an indication of my alignment. I can give a plethora of games where I have lurked as town and skimmed just to avoid being replaced. I can also list several games where I have done this as scum in the past. It's more a matter of whether or now I am enjoying the game. My reasons for being detached from this game are not alignment based, and I think if you look at my dwindling level of activity over the site in recent weeks, that you will see for yourself that this trend is not exclusive to this game. I also think that you, of all people, should know this can and does happen to players. You should also note that even as a duo(we were, at the time), Springlullaby and I were not very helpful in the Alpha game, where we were town. I urge you to look to see if you can find any actual difference between our behavior in that game and this one, and ask yourself if you truly, honestly think I am scum because of my activity and level of commitment to this game.
Well at best all you can have established here is that your behaviour this game is a null-tell, not a town-tell
nyb (513) wrote:I don't think J-Scope is scum. I don't think Frog Dodging is scum. I also don't think PokeTheAlpaca is scum. This means I think the scum are among you, Ojanen and Zaphod Beeblebrox. If I had to pick two, it would be you and Zaphod.
This is exactly the sort of thing I was talking about. Do you see a link between us and Zaphod? What is it? This making lists and not really considering buddying etc. is scummy. I also feel a lot better about lynching you after your announced top two suspects- me and Zaphod. Zaphod I've felt was town as long as I can remember, and I know I'm town. Also Frog wants to lynch you and I'm almost positive they're town. I still think J-Scope - nyb is the scumpair.
J-Scope (514) wrote:What does this sentence mean if not to suggest that my SWSWC’s analysis did not include nyballs as a scumbuddy? Since he didn’t mention nyballs, how would I be able to comment on it?

Or did you mean that I ignored nyballs separate from where I was going? Because you had already said that in other sentences. So it seems to me like you meant the first one.
I meant two different points. You seemed to be going to great length across multiple posts to analyse SWSWC's scumbuddies while neglecting other aspects of the game. I also noted your ignoring nyb as consistent with your general trend of behaviour.
J-Scope (514) wrote:What do you mean by behavior tells? I can agree with you but mostly because we are in that possible mylo situation and need to look at all options. I’m still going to believe Zaphod is scum and look for connections to her.
Behaviour tells = that guy's acting all nervous about the mislynch therefore he's scum. As opposed to looking for links between players which indicate they are viable scumbuddies. The first way is a good way of catching scum to me but if you can provide evidence of the second nature at this point in the game I'm far more likely to be convinced your case is genuine and you're not simply trying to push through a mislynch at the last minute.
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Post Post #523 (isolation #12) » Mon Jul 27, 2009 7:46 pm

Post by ortolan »

Poker (516) wrote:I was trying to make a few points there.

1. That multiple people had been ignoring nyball through the game. And if you viewed one insistance of ignoring as a town tell or a scum tell the other insistances with other players should be viewed the same.
Objectively that is true, yes. However I am not approaching this game from an objective viewpoint in that we know what our own role is (and no-one else in the game does). That game is still perfectly
consistent
at least with them being scum together, even if the behaviour is the same towards us and/or anyone else, including those who may have died and flipped town.
PTA (516) wrote:2. In ignoring them, you have not really stated you thought they were scum or town. All you were really stating was there was some connection between j-scope and nyb. What leads you to believe they are scum, just that they are conected? Have you noticed any individual scummy actions involved with the conection or the players themselves?
My case comes about more by process of elimination. I think Frog is obv-town, I have always thought Zaphod was town, and I still have a mild obligation to think you are town due to SWSC's behaviour towards you. I have no idea about Ojanen and probably should have had a closer look. Picking up the thread left by Kmd I was specifically looking at the possibility they are scumbuddies and see behaviour which is consistent with that. I think they could well be scum together, and believe them both to be extremely difficult to read as scum, see: mini 701? and the scum o' the sea game for springlullaby (I can't even remember who her hydra partner is) and see e.g. Sushi Mafia and Alpha for Jahudo.

Specifically I feel Jahudo may be acting in a similarly "detached" way to the way he played in Alpha, where he pretty much confidently shrugged off any criticism of him with a sort of distant air. He showed very passive but not really incriminating behaviour towards his scumbuddies there also. It's hard because I don't have a town meta on him, but after re-reading them I was left with little counter-evidence to suggest them not being scum together.
PF (516) wrote:Tell me what happens if no one dies today via the scum kill? Does that mean anything?
It seems incredibly unlikely but it would mean we are still effectively in LYOL, because the scum have a kill on either side of the lynch. Don't forget the daykill always precedes the lynch on any given day.
PF (516) wrote:Wait.. so one point you have is that you think you are town and him going after you makes him scum? Dude that is pretty much what omgus means without the actually voting of each other. Also you want to vote them just cause FD does, So you are agreeing with them only because you think they are town? You don't have another reason, one of your own?
If I think FD are town and composed of good players then I am inclined to think there is something to their suspicions, yes, particularly when they coincide with what Zmd observed and what I've had substantial trouble disproving. Also you're not taking into account the mere fact that I think they're town means that I eliminate 1 out of 6 hydras and start looking at the others.

After Ojanen's last post I am almost certain he is either scum or the doctor.

J-Scope why are you in such a hurry to vote a no-lynch in 517? It will happen irrespectively of whether we vote for it or not.
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Post Post #526 (isolation #13) » Tue Jul 28, 2009 1:52 am

Post by ortolan »

to be honest I had forgotten he was even alive

and as I said, if he doesn't now claim doctor I will probably vote for him
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Post Post #527 (isolation #14) » Tue Jul 28, 2009 2:04 am

Post by ortolan »

J-Scope (525) wrote:It looks like distancing or mudslinging more than genuine suspicion.
What do you mean by distancing
or
mudslinging. Surely you're not trying to have your cake and eat it too?

The reasons we've ignored Ojando: I honestly don't know. I don't recall any content of theirs recently which has stood out. I actually forgot they were in the game when I was doing my process of elimination. I will look at them as I will everyone else. Bear in mind that I specifically drew attention to what I saw as scummy daykill speculation on their part in post 522.
Ojando (522) wrote:My opinion is that scum seem to have decided either not to submit or are persisting with trying to kill the same person and being stopped somehow.
He seems to already be anticipating the lack of a daykill even before the day has ended, and I really, really don't like the "persisting with trying to kill the same person and being stopped somehow" part. This implies he knows the scum or has inferred the scum
have
targeted the same person two days in a row (and both times it's resulted in a no-kill). He would only know this if he was the doctor who had protected the same person twice in a row and there'd been no kill (and even then he's jumping the gun), or if he's the scum who submitted the kills, or is the scum trying to WIFOM by submitting no kills in the first place.
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Post Post #529 (isolation #15) » Tue Jul 28, 2009 12:42 pm

Post by ortolan »

J-Scope (528) wrote:But enough about you, let's talk about Ojando. Is this the right time for a role claim? Were you for or against the doc claim earlier today, Orto? I thought we settled that the doc, if ever there was one, should only crumb so the mafia don't kill him today.

I'm more than a little concerned that Orto is role fishing here.
You realise it is now effectively "tomorrow" as we have voted a no lynch. And again, there is still no reason to anticipate that a scumkill could not happen at any time (unless you have inside knowledge). It's not really role-fishing when I say "if he doesn't claim doctor I'm going to vote him", I'm being very clear in my intentions and in no way am I subtly trying to draw his role out of him. Why did you totally ignore the substance of what I was saying against him in favour of looking for further (nonexistent) connections between us and accusing me of role-fishing?
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Post Post #532 (isolation #16) » Tue Jul 28, 2009 6:42 pm

Post by ortolan »

Jahudo- the thrust of what I was saying is that he instantly jumped to the conclusion "either the mafia is repeatedly trying to kill the same person or are no killing". Why could a no-kill not result from the doctor protecting two different people the mafia targets consecutively? I would see that as way more likely also, I don't see why; if the mafia target someone and get no kill on that night, they would ever target them again the next night. Sure it's subject to WIFOM of the doctor changing their targets, but it's incredibly uncommon. Thus the fact that he says "the mafia is repeatedly targeting the same person" implies to me he is either the doc (in which case he is still jumping the gun) because he knows he targeted the same person on two consecutive days, or he is the scum that submitted the kill. Plus, of course, how did he know the kill wasn't going through today/yesterday (depending how you classify)?
J-Scope (531) wrote:It's possible that someone like Ojando could speculate as scum, but I don't see how the speculation practically guarantees that they're either scum or doc.
I don't regard it as deliberate speculation, I regard it as a slip (which could mean either doc or scum). I am curious as to what ulterior motive you believe I have for bringing this up.
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Post Post #539 (isolation #17) » Thu Jul 30, 2009 10:22 pm

Post by ortolan »

OJ (533) wrote:I didn’t jump to the conclusion, I said: “There are other options, some discussed so far, some not, but those 2 seem by far the most likely to me.”
This very obviously means that I considered the other options and came up with what I thought are the 2 most likely.
You are misrepresenting something I was very clear about.
OJ (553) wrote:Odds, not only would the doc have to correctly guess the target yesterday, but then guess that after having blocked 1 kill, that the scum would change target, and THEN correctly guess AGAIN who the new target is.
Yeah, that’s sooooooo much more likely than the doc realising he was protecting a scum target and sticking with it.
There are other options, but I thought they were even less likely.
Compare the bolded. Firstly you clearly state you thought those two possibilities were the most likely, but in the second paragraph you attack me by implying I'm suggesting that the doc changing targets is far more likely than the doc sticking with the same target. I am not necessarily implying that at all, I'm questioning your surety that one of the two possibilities is that the doctor protected the same person twice in a row, which certainly to me seems no more likely and on balance less likely than the doctor protecting two different people. Either way I don't like the way you didn't consider this second possibility at all, when it's at least as likely as the first.
Ojando (533) wrote:So the doc would be stupid to stay on the same target, but scum can obviously work out that the doc will change target so they can stay on the same target? Wow, you’re tying yourself in knots.
Irrelevant.
Ojando (533) wrote:I made my big assumption about 24 hours before deadline, and you think I’ve made a huge assumption?
Not essential to my attack.
Ojando (533) wrote:You advocate a no-lynch, saying that we should give scum the next kill.
Ojando (533) wrote:You then attempt to out someone you think is a doctor
Now this needs some clarification. I said that in the context of assuming EVERYONE would be claiming tomorrow/today depending on whether we've gone through to the next day yet. It meant "When Ojando claims, I expect him to claim doctor or else he is scum". Basically it was meant to put pressure on you because it was a slip, and I viewed it as a scujm-slip rather than a doctor slip because I would think a doctor would be more careful.
Ojando (533) wrote:You then ‘hammer’ the no-lynch, ensuring that you can now change your target ‘tomorrow’.
I don't quite understand this point.

You mean in the same way a no lynch always entails? What's your point? It reduces the number of suspects assuming the scum kill successfully.
Ojando (533) wrote:This all looks incredibly dodgy to me.
Scummily expressed.
Ojando (533) wrote:The idea that you would advocate giving scum the next kill with no real resistance
1) I wasn't the only one voting no lynch, btw.

2) It's standard practice in this scenario.
Ojando (533) wrote:then deliberately try and give them a power-role target is absolutely mind-boggling.
Let me repeat: if you do not claim doctor, I will vote you (and probably even if you do).
Ojando (533) wrote:No, I won’t claim today, no matter what I am, it would be possibly the stupidest thing in the world to do.
Yes, claiming in LYOL is a terrible idea, far better to deny ourselves as many chances as possible of catching scum free.
Ojando (533) wrote:You can’t analyse and get a lynch based on my claim
What?
Ojando (533) wrote:There is no ‘slip’ that I’ve made unless you ignore the qualifying parts of my post.
I beg to differ.

I think it is time 4 massclaim, I vote Ojando goes first.
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Post Post #544 (isolation #18) » Fri Jul 31, 2009 2:23 am

Post by ortolan »

PTA (542) wrote:I think Ortolan may have just made the same tell Nuwen made in the alpha game
Pfft.
PTA wrote: Also to be honest with hoopla, K-scope, springluliby, and all of FD now not posting and me and plum being on very shity access I'm begining to wonder if there is a point to continuing this game.
(and Adel leaving). I think I agree with you.
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Post Post #546 (isolation #19) » Fri Jul 31, 2009 2:40 am

Post by ortolan »

When I say "pfft" I mean it as in "pfft, that's a ridiculous reach on your part; drawing a parallel between this instance and Alpha purely because I have openly stated Ojando is scum or the doctor. I actually suspect Ojando is
scum
rather than the doctor, which is why I said it in the first place.
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Post Post #549 (isolation #20) » Sat Aug 01, 2009 3:48 am

Post by ortolan »

The other scum is nyb; or you

Are we massclaiming or wot?
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Post Post #550 (isolation #21) » Sat Aug 01, 2009 3:48 am

Post by ortolan »

you meaning J-Scope
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Post Post #552 (isolation #22) » Sat Aug 01, 2009 4:00 am

Post by ortolan »

massclaim massclaim massclaim
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Post Post #554 (isolation #23) » Sat Aug 01, 2009 8:14 pm

Post by ortolan »

imo popcorn style

that's 2 votes out of 7, we just need 4 really to begin
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Post Post #560 (isolation #24) » Tue Aug 04, 2009 9:03 pm

Post by ortolan »

Ojando (556) wrote:Mass-claim at this stage is a mistake. The entire reason we no-lynched was to have 1 less player in lylo. Mass-claiming now will probably achieve that, at the expense of losing a power-role. We should mass-claim, but only once a kill goes through or once we agree that no kill will go through.
On reflection I agree with his.
Ojando (556) wrote:You trying to force me to claim is also a fairly obvious attempt by you to set up a post-scumkill lynch.
Ok firstly I'm not trying to get you to claim outside of the context of a massclaim. Also I don't understand this point. Are you saying I am trying to force you to claim because I know your claim will be scummy and we will be able to lynch you after I put the scum-kill through? Even if I was scum and you were town I wouldn't know in advance that your claim was going to be scummy, so I simply do not understand what point you're making here except possibly that "my claim is going to get me lynched", in which case, I laugh (at the scumminess of this assertion).
Jahudo (558) wrote:His case on ojando looks absolutely like a behavior tell and does not link to any other player that I can see.
True. That doesn't mean I can't see him being scumbuddies e.g. with you.
Jahudo (559) wrote:EBYOP: The only way scum-Ojando would know his kill was stopped is if he sent it in at the start of the day (during that 11 day period between July 10 and July 21.) For some reason Ojando did not post once in that time period and only ojanen was posting in other games during that week. Any reason?
Wait, I'm not sure I understand this but are you saying that because Ojando didn't post in this game he can't have put a kill through? I should hope not.
Jahudo (559) wrote:
ortolan wrote:Why could a no-kill not result from the doctor protecting two different people the mafia targets consecutively? I would see that as way more likely
How is that more likely? I don't think we can quantify either in terms of likeliness because that depends on alot of variables we do not know. So I think all speculation is equally not very productive or conclusive until maybe after massclaim.
You've taken my quote entirely out of context. I wasn't seeking to discuss which was the more likely, I was questioning Ojando's initial assertion that it was likely the doctor protected the same person twice in a row, which I see there being no basis for.
Jahudo (559) wrote:How is it uncommon if you say its WIFOM? That means there's a guessing game between scum and doc where a better choice is not easily made.
Again, this is all in the context of wondering why Ojando made the assertion he did.
Jahduo (559) wrote:If Ojando had killed between July 10 and 21, I personally feel that they also would have been active in this game to start setting up lynch options if/when their kill went through.
You think Ojando is town?
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Post Post #566 (isolation #25) » Fri Aug 07, 2009 9:54 pm

Post by ortolan »

Ojando (562) wrote:I’m calling BS on your ‘reflection’. You’d thought about the status of the game enough to insist on a no-lynch, but you then didn’t think through the implications of a mass-claim while doing exactly what you wanted by no-lynching? Yeah right.
ONCE we've established a scum-kill isn't going to happen and/or we agree on a massclaim (which entails that anyway), we can massclaim.
Ojando (562) wrote:You’re scum, you get me to claim, you kill someone else, point at me and go ‘look, he didn’t die after claiming power role, clearly scum’. It looks a lot like you trying to set up a post-scumkill lynch.
Ok, I see what you were accusing us of now. However, we/I never wanted you to claim in isolation anyhow, it was only in the context of a massclaim (as I already stated).
Ojando (562) wrote:My 2 ‘scenarios’ are the most likely in terms of odds, no matter what I am.
No they aren't. In any game I've been in as scum will not target the same player twice in a row if they don't die on the first night.
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Post Post #570 (isolation #26) » Sat Aug 08, 2009 4:17 pm

Post by ortolan »

"

I want Ojando to go next
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Post Post #571 (isolation #27) » Sat Aug 08, 2009 4:18 pm

Post by ortolan »

that means I'm also vanilla if it wasn't clear
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Post Post #574 (isolation #28) » Sun Aug 09, 2009 2:18 am

Post by ortolan »

so tell me why I was wrong/scummy to say "you are either scum or the doctor"?

I was right wasn't I? (I may yet be right about both; or just the scum part)
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Post Post #585 (isolation #29) » Sun Aug 09, 2009 10:18 pm

Post by ortolan »

I strongly dislike the piling on to nyb by two players who haven't even (fully) claimed themselves

PTA: what is your role? why did you completely ignore your obligation to claim in your attack post on nyb?

Frog Dodging: who were your targets?
Ojando (575) wrote:You've been interacting with my other head but I agree your actions were questionable.
If I'd been interacting with your other head but you agree with them why did you feel the need to point this out?

I will also state I don't fully understand PTA's attack on nyb at the present time.
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Post Post #598 (isolation #30) » Tue Aug 11, 2009 3:57 am

Post by ortolan »

What I'm suspicious of: You checked nyb's targets earlier and commented on their convenience, and also specifically commented on one player in nyb's photoshopping etc. abilities. Which means you definitely looked at their protection receipts, which means you know all you have to do to find out whomever you targeted is look at your own protection receipts, and are now posting from your hydra account. Yet you are apparently still unsure of the timing of your targets?

Do you still intend not to post screenshots even while the other two claimed doctors have?

I think I've still got some stuff to respond to, I'll do that soon
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Post Post #604 (isolation #31) » Thu Aug 13, 2009 2:22 am

Post by ortolan »

I'd like some screenshots while you're about :)

there's only 50 hours to deadline after all
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Post Post #607 (isolation #32) » Thu Aug 13, 2009 3:21 am

Post by ortolan »

how about role pm? :D~
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Post Post #627 (isolation #33) » Fri Aug 14, 2009 10:58 pm

Post by ortolan »

I think we should dine on frogs' legs
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Post Post #638 (isolation #34) » Sun Aug 16, 2009 1:48 pm

Post by ortolan »

damnit

if they didn't all get a protect in in time (although I assume they did) I still could have killed one of them (I would have gone for J-Scope)

I thought Frog was scum instead of J-Scope because of his reaction to nyb's claim and his own doctor claim. I should have guesssed that scum wouldn't claim 2 out of 3 doctors though. I just didn't expect that many town doctors.

I would have thought the fact there were three town doctors made the scum's job of fitting in very easy pretty much (plus they can just protect one another every round to stop cross-kills).
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Post Post #640 (isolation #35) » Sun Aug 16, 2009 2:10 pm

Post by ortolan »

I probably should have tried to get Ojando lynched actually, I strongly suspected he was scum with PTA after my kill on PTA didn't go through and he claimed to protect him repeatedly; and then when my kill on Ojando didn't go through (despite no-one claiming to have protected him) it was confirmed he and PTA were scum together.
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Post Post #641 (isolation #36) » Sun Aug 16, 2009 2:11 pm

Post by ortolan »

good game, well done to the Bulgarians
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Post Post #643 (isolation #37) » Sun Aug 16, 2009 2:55 pm

Post by ortolan »

PF wrote:BTW to all those that thought I was scum because I was wasting too many posted.
We actually didn't think you were scum at all until the kill on you didn't go through :P
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Post Post #645 (isolation #38) » Sun Aug 16, 2009 3:04 pm

Post by ortolan »

I wanna see your qt
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Post Post #653 (isolation #39) » Sun Aug 16, 2009 3:33 pm

Post by ortolan »

I think I might have brought up during Alpha the possibility of a whole team of mafia doctors in our hydra quicktopic (but I had to edit it out when we posted screenshots in Alpha cause it incriminated us in Beta)
PF (646) wrote:You actually thought I was town?
I think initially we thought attacking you for your posting was convenient and meant we didn't need to do much else. When Yos died and flipped town and had pretty much been agreeing with you that made me think there was a strong likelihood you were town also.

I think we realised something dodgy was going on around the third action phase. At the lack of kills from another mafia faction forced me to clarify Adel that there actually was another scum faction in the game and the wording of the rules was correct. Before that we just assumed the other mafia wasn't submitting kills, or else that they were responsible e.g. for the death of SWSWC. Seeing as two SKs died but in the entire game there was only one scum-kill that didn't come from us I think we assumed that some killing factions just weren't submitting kills.
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Post Post #655 (isolation #40) » Sun Aug 16, 2009 5:56 pm

Post by ortolan »

btw, did you all actually submit your protections for Day 8?
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Post Post #686 (isolation #41) » Tue Aug 18, 2009 7:29 pm

Post by ortolan »

I didn't like screenshots either, they just added extra effort if you were scum (ironically they didn't help town one bit in either game either LOL!)
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Post Post #687 (isolation #42) » Tue Aug 18, 2009 7:56 pm

Post by ortolan »

shaft.ed and elvis you guys don't mind if we post the qt do you?

Also what was the previous game you got burned by when you let someone replace back in Adel? (from the Bulgarian QT)
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