DHSDSM beta: Game Over.

[Jahudo]

I mean what are people re-reading inside this thread. Like is it a particular day, a particular player (still alive or recently killed?) or looking at voting trends, etc etc?

[Jahudo]

I think Ojando could just be mis-formed since scum could have killed over a week ago and we still don't know.

But I am also trying to wrap my head around this debate ever since I started to wonder about a Ojando-Orto scumteam. Orto is making this possibility less and less likely I guess.

Maybe nyballs after all. What do you think Orto?

I don't know if massclaim is the best decision yet, but if it is then ojando and nyballs should go earlier than later.

[Jahudo]

EBWOP: He could just be mis

in

formed.

[Jahudo]

who is the other scum?

[Jahudo]

I don't care when I claim or how we do it.

[Jahudo]

Orto's case right now looks contradictory to this:

I am very strongly of the opinion that you need to be putting forward a hypothesised actual scum-pair now. If we restrict ourselves to making individual scum-cases it's just another way the two scum can easily exploit "behavioural tells" on a townie and therefore end-game. I dislike behavioural tells over actual "links to scum" tells in general though.

His case on ojando looks absolutely like a behavior tell and does not link to any other player that I can see. It is some players scumhunting approach to speculate publicly on power actions.

All I see is that Ojando speculated on what was going on with power roles. I cannot see how even as scum or doc he would have had inside information at that point, because he would not have known whether or not a kill was stopped. So to me it is clear that Ojando could be any role, or just a VT.

I think we need an alpaca and a goofball to either say Yea or Nay to massclaim.

[Jahudo]

EBYOP: The only way scum-Ojando would know his kill was stopped is if he sent it in at the start of the day (during that 11 day period between July 10 and July 21.) For some reason Ojando did not post once in that time period and only ojanen was posting in other games during that week. Any reason?

Also, to reply directly:

Why could a no-kill not result from the doctor protecting two different people the mafia targets consecutively? I would see that as way more likely

How is that more likely? I don't think we can quantify either in terms of likeliness because that depends on alot of variables we do not know. So I think all speculation is equally not very productive or conclusive until maybe after massclaim.

also, I don't see why; if the mafia target someone and get no kill on that night, they would ever target them again the next night. Sure it's subject to WIFOM of the doctor changing their targets, but it's incredibly uncommon.

How is it uncommon if you say its WIFOM? That means there's a guessing game between scum and doc where a better choice is not easily made.

Thus the fact that he says "the mafia is repeatedly targeting the same person" implies to me he is either the doc (in which case he is still jumping the gun) because he knows he targeted the same person on two consecutive days, or he is the scum that submitted the kill. Plus, of course, how did he know the kill wasn't going through today/yesterday (depending how you classify)?

The doc would never know he protected correctly the first no-kill day for multiple reasons: Maybe there's a third doc? Maybe there's a RB? If Ojando is the doc, he's still speculating about the first day just like a doc could only speculate about the second day because the day was not over and the mod was V/LA.

If he is scum and unless he had killed between July 10 and 21, he would not know whether or not the kill went through. I definitely think scum could speculate there, but not definitively more likely than a townie.

If Ojando had killed between July 10 and 21, I personally feel that they also would have been active in this game to start setting up lynch options if/when their kill went through.

[Jahudo]

EBYOP: The only way scum-Ojando would know his kill was stopped is if he sent it in at the start of the day (during that 11 day period between July 10 and July 21.) For some reason Ojando did not post once in that time period and only ojanen was posting in other games during that week. Any reason?

Wait, I'm not sure I understand this but are you saying that because Ojando didn't post in this game he can't have put a kill through? I should hope not.

I'm asking Ojando if they have any reason for not posting in that time period. I do not think that their absence omits them from being able to kill.

You've taken my quote entirely out of context. I wasn't seeking to discuss which was the more likely, I was questioning Ojando's initial assertion that it was likely the doctor protected the same person twice in a row, which I see there being no basis for.

I agree with you that his speculation looked baseless if made as a townie, but I still think some townies say these things.

You think Ojando is town?

Based on his speculation I do not get any strong feeling one way or the other. I had a concern about him in another area, but it does not link to any other player as of yet. So I'm more than all right with keeping the spotlight on Ojando, but I just want to talk about his other posts.

[Jahudo]

Who wants to go first?

I'm going to have limited to no access for a while soon. see sig.
I'll see if K-Scope can replace me

[Jahudo]

I'm vanilla.

I think one of the claimed docs has to be scum because 4 is just too many town docs. I could believe 3 because of the multiple SKs though. The order of claims doesn't really matter since mafia doc would claim doc anyway, and again with the multiple SKs I could believe a mafia doc exists.

So Nyballs admits he didn't protect during action phase 2. Here's the phases and when people to show when people had to submit actions by.

Action Phase 1 Page 1-12 (before june 12, 6:23pm)
AP2 Day 3 (between june 23, 3:30am and june 28, 12:02am)
AP3 Day 4 (between june 28, 12:03am and july 10, 4:39pm)
AP4 Day 5 (between july 10, 4:40pm and july 28, 2:46am)
AP5 Day 6 (starting aug 1, 10:59am

Nyball posted once during action phase 2, in order to vote RW to L-2. When Yos was killed on the next page, it was an L-1 vote. Considering the placement of that vote even before the yos flip, he should have been thinking about sending in a protection, but since he didn't the vote looks pretty scummy.

I made a point in being overly zealous about them not being scum (and I wasn't lying when I said I confused the idea of them not being SK, which I held ever since the first kill was blocked, with them not being scum), but especially after the 2nd time a kill apparently was blocked.

How does that make FD look town to you? Are you saying you thought your protection blocked the kill? I don't see how you could think that since you didn't protect him the day the first kill was blocked in action phase 3. This looks like a scum slip.

[Jahudo]

We really should see the timing of everybody's submissions in order to tell how much of the day they could had read, and if it makes sense with who they protected and when.

[Jahudo]

I'll try to be back tomorrow night too because I realize this is deadline and free internet in the hotel is free.

I don't see anything odd in the new screencaps.
I'd prefer a nyball lynch. Its partially for his hop on RW without preparing a protection even though he was trying to end the day with his vote, and partially because it looks like ojando could have been responsible for the first blocked kill.

I haven't talked with K-Scope, but I'll vote now.

vote: nyball

[Jahudo]

I still don't believe 4 docs, and I still think the lack of kills are due to protections, so Frog seems the clear choice.

[Jahudo]

Yay! Good game everybody, and great work team bulgaria!

for RW. At least you know it was mostly a scum driven wagon and you had me pegged from the beginning.

Thank you for modding these two games Adel and Claus!

[Jahudo]

I'm okay with posting the quicktopic. It is very loooooong though.

I want to see the other mafia's QT.