Mini 829 - Internal Struggle Mafia (Over)

[don_johnson]

we have no guarantee that toro rb'd anyone. he should most certainly be lynched, especially due to the fact that drk avoided him like the plague on day 1. i don't find it suspicious for paradox to change positions when posed with the reasoning i gave him. 721 seems like a bit of rolefishing, so more scumpoints for zach in this exchange. let's analyze some other players before we end the day, as unless we get a scumclaim i think we can agree that toro is the lynch.

i'm pretty sure paradox is town and am on the fence with zach, so i would like other players to post their opinions.

[Zachrulez]

we have no guarantee that toro rb'd anyone. he should most certainly be lynched, especially due to the fact that drk avoided him like the plague on day 1. i don't find it suspicious for paradox to change positions when posed with the reasoning i gave him. 721 seems like a bit of rolefishing, so more scumpoints for zach in this exchange. let's analyze some other players before we end the day, as unless we get a scumclaim i think we can agree that toro is the lynch.

i'm pretty sure paradox is town and am on the fence with zach, so i would like other players to post their opinions.

And 718 wasn't a soft claim?

I know more than I'm leading on, but I'm not about to help Paradox concoct lies by revealing what I know before he explains that post.

[don_johnson]

fair enough. i'll wait for this to pan out before dropping my two cents.

[ryan2754]

Agreed. I would like for an explanation from paradox.

So both Zach and Paradox changed their opinions about the vig claiming?
Who thinks the vig should claim and who thinks the vig shouldn't claim and why?

I must be missing everyone's logic...

[icemanE]

Hey everyone. Sorry for the slow posting. However, I prefer to make one summary post that is actually relevant to the game instead of several smaller ones that don't pertain to anything that's still useful. That's still a work in progress but it should be ready tomorrow.

[Toro]

Do those of you who think DRK and I were together, do you honestly think that the mafia would've just thrown DeathRowKitty, a more active player, under the bus rather than the guy who just checks in whenever he has time? Just saying 'I don't believe' and just throwing down a vote on a PR is just stupid.

[don_johnson]

^^ what? noone got thrown under a bus, toro, drk was nk'd. personally, i think anyone perpetuating the idea that mafia killed one of their own for wifomic effect deserves a hearty FoS.

your contributions are lackluster and roleblocking power in your hands is not all that useful. i'd rather know your alignment as it would help us determine what happened last night. i think that's the most helpful way to use you even if you are town.

Just saying 'I don't believe' and just throwing down a vote on a PR is just stupid.

who did this?

[Toro]

Well DJ, I don't know how many times I have to say it...

I'm the TOWN Roleblocker.

[Toro]

@DJ: Paradox 703

[Toro]

And

Vote: Zachrulez

Are you ****ing kidding me? We've already got a couple of PR roles walking about, and you want to out another one?

[Zachrulez]

If you're going to softclaim, don't act like I'm the one doing the outting when you're doing it yourself.

[hiphop]

I read this as you believe Toro is telling the truth. What's your take on the night actions, hiphop?

I don’t believe anyone at the moment, especially not Toro. Who says DRK tried to make the kill? His scum buddies could have tried to make the kill and someone RB him or someone saved the person they were targeting. I am also willing to believe that the SK made that kill. A RB is also something easy for a scum to claim as, if they are the mafia RB.

I don't believe the no NK. There would be no reason why Toro, if he were scum, would RB his buddy. If this happened and Toro came out and said he RB someone and there was no NK, what do you think everybody would believe? They would probably believed that the person who he RB was scum, or they wouldn't believe Toro. I do believe that his scum buddies could of told Toro to give the name of somebody who had died night 1.
This way the action can't be checked.

i have to disagree here. i also asked for a claim as i think a vig claim would be helpful. the problem with vig is that it is easy cover for sk. without a claim we run the risk of carrying a nightkiller into lylo type situations. this is not a good idea. i believe vigilantes should shoot early and claim early. taking a nightkill is better than scum targeting someone else who may have a more important role like cop or doc.

I will have to disagree with you. If there is a vig, and I am saying if, than the vig is our only shot of killing mafia at night, otherwise we will always need to rely on the lynch for the mafia to die. If the vig dies than is means once it hits night the only person killed will be town. Besides the vig hitting scum, should be more likely than the mafia hitting our doctor or Cop. Scum always has the chance of targeting a less important role like a vanilla.

Also the day has just begun, referring to 725. Let us see what it brings us, before we decide on who to lynch, though I too would be willing to lynch Toro right now. I would rather have a full day activity before lynching anyone.

Protection will come.

I want this explained as well.

@Toro you still have not explained my question. Please do.
As for the above post, I think we all will have that idea until Paradoxombie explains. I saw it and had an idea of what it meant before Zach called it out. If I saw it, I am sure the more experienced players, scum included, would of seen it too.

[Paradoxombie]

I just think a vig would survive in this game. There are a number of other claimed roles plus the chance of them hitting scum or scum getting blocked by a doctor or RB. I just said it very confidently in a cheap attempt to convince someone who wants to keep playing rather than get NKed.

At this point I have to think it's an SK because I think DRK looked more like an SK target than vig target.

Hiphop, you are right but claiming doesn't = death. And viging someone doesn't give them a chance to claim or a wagon for us to gain info from.

[alexhans]

Those in danger of suppression #27:

Paradoxombie (1)

-

Zachrulez

toro (3)

-

ryan2754, don_johnson, Paradoxombie

Zachrulez (1)

-

toro

Not Voting (5)

-

jasonT1981, RedCoyote, hiphop, DTMaster, icemanE

With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

[ryan2754]

Personally, I think it was a vig kill over an SK kill, given my analysis of DRK's interaction with IK.

[don_johnson]

Personally, I think it was a vig kill over an SK kill, given my analysis of DRK's interaction with IK.

please detail this. it is a very suspicious statement. i thought drk was obvtown for the better part of the day yesterday. to me it looks way more like an sk picking a town target.

FoS Ryan

just an odd thing to say here. if you can back this up with evidence i will retract my statement.

[ryan2754]

Personally, I think it was a vig kill over an SK kill, given my analysis of DRK's interaction with IK.

please detail this. it is a very suspicious statement. i thought drk was obvtown for the better part of the day yesterday. to me it looks way more like an sk picking a town target.

FoS Ryan

just an odd thing to say here. if you can back this up with evidence i will retract my statement.

Read my lengthy post at the beginning of D2. It explains how I could see it as a vig kill.

[don_johnson]

i understand. i am just wondering why your interpretation has gone from vig/sk to vig. drk presented more town in my opinion than he did scum. a vig would aim for scum, an sk would most likely target town on night one. just because he flipped scum does not mean it was a vig shot as opposed to sk. the fact that he presented as townie makes me lean more towards and sk target. also, i am a strong believer that if vig exists they need to claim, so by not claiming today i have to operate on the basis that vig does not exist. a vig claim later in the game would have to be interpreted as an sk fakeclaim thereby leading to a potential mislynch if vig actually exists.

ryan: you said-

Personally, I think it was a vig kill over an SK kill,

given my analysis of DRK's interaction with IK

.

i asked you to explain this and you have not. the post you directed me too does not explain this statement at all. please detail what interactions you are referring to and why, after ik flipped town, that a vig would target drk.

[ryan2754]

i understand. i am just wondering why your interpretation has gone from vig/sk to vig. drk presented more town in my opinion than he did scum. a vig would aim for scum, an sk would most likely target town on night one. just because he flipped scum does not mean it was a vig shot as opposed to sk. the fact that he presented as townie makes me lean more towards and sk target. also, i am a strong believer that if vig exists they need to claim, so by not claiming today i have to operate on the basis that vig does not exist. a vig claim later in the game would have to be interpreted as an sk fakeclaim thereby leading to a potential mislynch if vig actually exists.

ryan: you said-

Personally, I think it was a vig kill over an SK kill,

given my analysis of DRK's interaction with IK

.

i asked you to explain this and you have not. the post you directed me too does not explain this statement at all. please detail what interactions you are referring to and why, after ik flipped town, that a vig would target drk.

Since we have some people unable to read between the lines of my posts this round, and since there is a contingent that wants a claim, I AM the TOWN VIGILANTE.

I shot DRK last night.

Now I know everyone is going to say, "You never showed must interest/suspicion in DRK."

Comparatively to my attacks on Hiphop and my opinions on IK, Toro, and Jason, this is true.
However, Toro and Jason both claimed PRs, and I do not like Vigging OR lynching claimed PRs on D1/N1.

On Day 1, I

did

make a mention of DRK as playing very similar to his scum play he played in my last game, when I was scum with him. Granted, I said that only gives me his scum meta, but it was enough to make me want to vig him.

In the early rounds, I play vig like I play as the cop: Investigate/Vig someone I have either no read on/trouble reading, or a hunch.

DRK was a hunch, and it was correct.

Actually, given my role, you will notice that alot more of my D2 posts make sense (not believing DJ/Toro/Jason all as town PRs, because well, I am one) and my insistence that the NK was from a Vig.

[ryan2754]

EBWOP:
Not to mention, looking back at DRK's/IK's interaction after IK's reveal, it definitely make it seem like their argument was NOT staged, and DRK's insistence on proving IK wrong and multiple vote changing/open suspicion list made him slightly scummier in my mind.
Again, that along with my scum meta with him, made it worth a vig shot N1.

[don_johnson]

now you're making sense, and thank you for the claim. i still think we should follow through with the toro lynch.

ryan:

1) are you comfortable with letting us help direct your kills from here on out?

2) do you agree that as a safety precaution we need to be rid of you before a lylo or similar situation?

3) in regards to (2), would you be willing to self vig if necessary?

we now have:

town

roleblocker
dj(unknown)
lie detector
vig

scum

goon

may be premature to call town overpowered, but i find toro's claim the most suspicious. i think alot of what we do is going to depend on his flip. if he flips town i suggest protective role(s) randomize their selection(s).

with a town flip, perhaps the vig should hold their fire this evening?(thinking out loud here)

thoughts?

[ryan2754]

now you're making sense, and thank you for the claim. i still think we should follow through with the toro lynch.

ryan:

1) are you comfortable with letting us help direct your kills from here on out?

2) do you agree that as a safety precaution we need to be rid of you before a lylo or similar situation?

3) in regards to (2), would you be willing to self vig if necessary?

we now have:

town

roleblocker
dj(unknown)
lie detector
vig

scum

goon

may be premature to call town overpowered, but i find toro's claim the most suspicious. i think alot of what we do is going to depend on his flip. if he flips town i suggest protective role(s) randomize their selection(s).

with a town flip, perhaps the vig should hold their fire this evening?(thinking out loud here)

thoughts?

1.) I tend to be under the group of "Let the PRs do what they want, and let them play their own game." However, I understand the "swingy-ness" of how a vigilante works. He has the most potential as a town player to make or break the game, and it usually ends up being the latter.
2.) No, I think that is completely unnecessary, and I will show why in a minute. Not to mention, a vig is a TOWN-ORIENTED person, and lynching them in a lylo is a bad option, since it a town-confirmed individual and at that point I feel many other options would be available given the small number of players.
3.) Self-vig? I don't know of any situation where it would come down to that, but if it helps ensure a town win, then sure.

Now, about your last question.

Actually, you are preaching to the choir.

I am under the understanding that if a Vig goes goes 1-1 or 1-2 (baseball meaning, not record), that is a successful vig. Given this, I actually intended, ever since DRK was revealed as a goon, to NOT vig this round, or most likely in subsequent rounds, unless there are certain situations where it is necessary (for example, if D3, cop reveals 2 guilty's, or someone is proven to be fake-claiming at the end of the day). Thus, unnecessary to deal with me in a lylo/similar situation.

I think Vig's that lynch near/around LYLO and have had no success previously in the game are a liability to the game, and can definitely drastically change the game dynamics, even to a town loss.

Also, given that we have a fair amount of PRs (4 claimed, most likely only 3 or less) I have a feeling that we may have a Godfather. I only bring this up because it was huge in my last game I played in, and it something that should naturally be considered.

[don_johnson]

2.) No, I think that is completely unnecessary, and I will show why in a minute. Not to mention, a vig is a TOWN-ORIENTED person, and lynching them in a lylo is a bad option, since it a town-confirmed individual and at that point I feel many other options would be available given the small number of players.

my point here is that you are not confirmed just because you claim vig. yes, lynching the claimed vig is bad in lylo, but wifomic, as(depending on the circumstances) you could theoretically be the last scum(if two factions), or an sk. i just don't like carrying nightkillers too long, which is why is suggest the self vig, as a lynch of a town vig is a veritable wasted lynch. but obviously these are all subjective trains of thought. you do seem aware of the implications and i appreciate your take on not killing, however, even that does not confirm you. at this point, you are town vig to me and that is how i will be reading this game. hopefully we can find the rest of the scum before any of the sticky situations arise.

knowing now that drk was killed by ryan is good. i'd like more opinions and ideas, however, before we lynch toro.

[Toro]

Welcome to the game of

RISK =/= REWARD!

Vote: Toro

Will Toro flip as the Town Roleblocker? Or the Town Roleblocker? Who knows!?

Go on, do it. Just vote for me and you'll all see.

[DTMaster]

@Town
Sorry guys! I've been away since Uni started and everything. I'll give my general comments below. Expect a similar posting style to RC starting as of now but I'll do my best to stay caught up. "smites self for being so late"

Also does everyone have experience with night-vigs? I'm much more used to the flavor of day-vigs in games.

Also we might have to consider the potential of two RBers in the game, but that's just inner me trying to sort out the WIFOM from what we have here.

@RC
1. Logically speaking Toro's version is less likely. Self killing day 1 highly sub optimal play, especially from Scum POV. Ryan's inconclusive result is much more realistic in terms of "what happened" scenarios, especially since one of scum's traditional role is the RBer.

2. You and ryan are right that both Toro and Jason both telling the truth looks very improbable. There are ways to explain both (ie two RBers one scum and one town) but as of now we simply do not have enough information to sift through theory from fact. I wouldn't discount the possibility just yet but reasoning this out would still be very tricky.

@Zach
708: From a scum-Toro POV it's the best choice since it explains the lack of night kill. Though a lot of analysis from the RBing might be too WIFOMic so it's best to lightly consider it before you get lost in a circular logic loop.

@Toro/DJ's 730/731
Have to hand this to don right there, DRK had a very pro-town read from a lot of people. It would be odd if scum self targeted someone that was relatively comfy in the pro-town chair. This is why the "what happened" discussion lead us to.

@Paradox
737: You're certain a vig claim would not invoke a NK target based on that reasoning? It reads as role fishing before ryan claimed. Some issues with your logic are:

1. The town protects are now targeting one of the town PRs (I hope they did). You are insinuating that one of the claimed/softclaimed PRs is scum here with the doc protects scum idea.

2. The town vig would target an unCCed town PR. That would be silly right there, only an SK would do that. Unless the doc moved his protect from the town claimed PRs (that would be odd) the vig kill will resolve on another player. So your logic that the town vig is safe from kills seem fishy to me, pre-claim even.

@Hiphop
736: Yes it makes little sense why scum would try to no kill without a solid reason (ie doc claim) I think it's fruitless to continue that line of questioning. It's too WIFOMic to try and guess how the night action resolved at this time.

@Hiphop's Roleclaim Stance
There are more ways to hit scum besides a vig kill (ie the lie detector role if Jason's result didn't come up as inconclusive).

It's also a weak to assume that the vig will most likely hit scum then a town PR. The normal number of scum for a setup like this is around 3 (I just finished a mini game where we had 3 scum players so I'll use this as a general base. It's a safe number to assume.)

If we mislynch today we are down to 9 people, two townies dead and one scum dead. Under pure randomness without any speculation that would mean 2/9 players are scum and 7/9 players are town aligned. It's much more likely to hit a towns person then a scum player, while a scum player has a 100% chance of hitting a townie. Assuming protects fail we can lose up to a maximum of 3 townies per day in a worst case scenario. Having the 1/9 chance of accidentally hitting the doctor is definitely less then the 2/9 chances of hitting scum, but the implications of hitting town is still dangerous. Ryan put it perfectly well:

I tend to be under the group of "Let the PRs do what they want, and let them play their own game." However, I understand the "swingy-ness" of how a vigilante works. He has the most potential as a town player to make or break the game, and it usually ends up being the latter.

There is both good and bad that comes with that role that you should consider, where the pay off can be quite substantial if we get scum back to back in this way. But the majority of the risks become much more apparent in the end game, which we should consider then. It's premature right now to start weighing the risks/benefits of viging since it's just day two.

@Ryan
728: Too late! :< But I'll answer the question. I'm a bit on the fence (assuming this was pre-claim) since it does give us more information to work with and establish a working relationship with the town. (see your interactions with don in 745/746). It also outs a PR though. This strategy was mentioned in dj's 715

mini 712- capital of the world

meta call. So:

TOWN: THIS WOULD BE A GOOD TIME TO GO AND SKIM THIS GAME IF YOU HAVE TIME

But I have seen early PR claims work very effectively with a protect team on the PR. It's a very gutsy move.

743: I was partial to my mafia traitor theory but this clears up a lot. I went and did a reread and found everything to be accurate. Your post and reasoning is sound and I agree with it.

@Don
745: Judging by the list it's too premature to say that town looks overpowered. Even if we include potential protection roles due to the failed night kill there are potential pitfalls for town (ie take lovers for example) or much stronger scum PRs.

With a town flip I would suggest following the same reasoning with DRK, hit the person with a neutral read/scummy read. The latter is obvious to explain but this may involved forcing two claims a day from a lynch and night kill target. This could get messy.

The former is trickier because a neutral person is dangerous to take into lylo and puts a strain on scum hunting/character analysis. But at the same time the person is neutral, usually with no strong scummy characteristics. It's a tough analysis and a tough choice but I'm leaning towards assessment of the town first then choice.

@Final Result
Normally I would return to carry on my case from day 1, but I need to do a reread on what I did first before. It's been a while and I've been sorting out other games too. :S

Vote: Toro

for continued reasoning on day 1 and for the rehashed reasons we have so far. I won't repeat them but you know it by now.

I'll leave with @Toro who are your current top picks for scum and why?

Sorry because normally I don't support this kind of delay in questioning but real life calls me. I'll try and get to it soon.

*fixed url tags.