Mini 865 -- Evil Eyes (Over)

[tubby216]

oh and

unvote, vote symbol

[julienvonwolfe]

daykill RECK

Tubby, you're being irrational. Can you demonstrate how Symbol's posts are scummy?

[HowardRoark]

EriktheRed replaces geekalicious.

[EriktheRed]

Hey guys, I'm alive. I'll start catching up tomorrow.

[iamausername]

And no, there's barely a difference, if any at all, between "too townie" and "trying too hard to look town."

I disagree. "Trying too hard to look town" can be a legitimate reason to suspect someone; the point is that a town player wouldn't be

trying

to look town, it should just come naturally to them. In theory, a town player should be more interested in other things, like say trying to find scum, than in worrying about how town they look.

That said, I don't think it's an easy one to apply correctly, and I certainly don't think tubby is right in applying it here. I don't get that impression from Symbol in the slightest.

---

Glad we've got a geek replacement now so people can stop stalling on lynching the obvscum because "we shouldn't lynch without a claim" or whatever.

Not liking the fact that Zazie has gone quiet since his post explosion. I bet that means another is imminent, and if it does, I'm all for the policy lynch.

[HowardRoark]

Hoopla has been prodded. (2nd)

[xRECKONERx]

No, he can't, for some reason. Odd.

[Hoopla]

My proposal: We lynch randomly today.

Recently I've been taking the position in a few of my games that as far as lynching scum Day 1 is concerned, we have little chance above random. Nearly all information available in thread is subjective, and often it seems the person who is the weakest debater, or least experienced is killed. I think a lot of people agree, Day 1 is mostly valuable for information on voting records and ties between players, than a genuine opportunity to find scum.

So, I propose we lynch randomly today. The information we get prior to the random event is still there, and still genuine, and I would suggest we actually have a better chance of lynching scum today*, without too heavily impacting our chances for future days.

I think many players have a tendancy to overvalue their personal reads, especially on Day 1. We have a strong player list this game, and I know firsthand how talented some are as scum. I don't expect to lynch scum today, and I don't expect to develop any strong pro-town reads today either. Lynching randomly gives us an opportunity to create an event potentially uncomfortable and unseen from scum. A flip from someone very unlikely to be lynched today will seem a lot more valuable to me tomorrow, than some of the choices we've suggested so far.


* Of the last 3:9 closed Mini Normals, mafia were only lynched 13 times out of 64 on Day 1.

[ekiM]

Crap, I can't be here this weekend. I will catch up later this evening.

[xRECKONERx]

Random lynch? Really, Hoop?

[Hoopla]

Random lynch? Really, Hoop?

Yes, what do you think?

[xRECKONERx]

I don't think that's a good option. I think we need to make the most informed lynch possible, and randomly lynching is NOT the most informed.

[Symbol]

for each one of his posts i see them as scum motivated, however at first glance they(his posts) appear townish, upon further review they are scummy

Putting myself in the limelight is not a smart move as scum unless I'm setting up for my own bus. Which is stupid and defeatist.

Please point out scum motivations for "each one of [my] posts."

Seeing random lynch proposed by a long-time player makes me sad. If you are resorting to random . . . why don't you at least use those dicey day 1 reads, then? And why aren't you at least commenting on other players, even if you aren't willing to lead/resist a lynch on one of them?

[Hoopla]

I don't think that's a good option. I think we need to make the most informed lynch possible, and randomly lynching is NOT the most informed.

Do you think 51 of the last 64 mini normals with 3:9 set-ups lynching town D1 is a signifigant enough statistic showcasing town's generally poor efforts? Or is this sample size too small? Is the value of information watered down for future days in the event of a random lynch? Is that even a factor?

[Hoopla]

Seeing random lynch proposed by a long-time player makes me sad. If you are resorting to random . . . why don't you at least use those dicey day 1 reads, then? And why aren't you at least commenting on other players, even if you aren't willing to lead/resist a lynch on one of them?

Please tell me why random lynch is bad. People are more than welcome to go 'HURR DURR RANDOM LYNCH IS BAD', as soon as they have explained why, and rebutted the points I've made.

I don't trust my reads Day 1. But if you want me to guess, I'd say Nuwen is probably town, ekiM is shady, and I don't understand the wagon on geek.

[xRECKONERx]

Because how is a random lynch going to give town a higher probability to hit scum than any other situation?

Also, as a counter-point: I'm in a game currently that just went into N1 and we lynched scum D1.

[Symbol]

It just seems pointless when you can scum-hunt, however dubious day 1 reads are.

Nuwen is scummy.

[Hoopla]

Because how is a random lynch going to give town a higher probability to hit scum than any other situation?

Also, as a counter-point: I'm in a game currently that just went into N1 and we lynched scum D1.

Your counter-point made me smile.

Random lynch: 25% hitting scum (assuming we are in a 3:9)
Scumhunt lynching based on previous town efforts: ~20%


Because town have little information at the start of the day, their opinions and feelings swing quite freely and easily. It's simple for talented (even not so talented) scum, to manipulate the decision in their favour when they make up ~25% of the town. It's easier to prevent your own lynch when you have known teammates. This is probably one of the reasons why towns tend to hit town more often (on average) than they do scum, on D1.

It kind of irks me how easily people can rubbish an idea just because it goes against the traditional formula. I'm happy to debate this with people, and I encourage it. The one argument I won't tolerate is the 'blah blah random isn't mafia', when in the situation it could possibly be a smart town move.

[Hoopla]

It just seems pointless when you can scum-hunt, however dubious day 1 reads are.

Nuwen is scummy.

Nuwen isn't scummy. LOL GOOD INFORMATIONS.

[iamausername]

Hoopla, your problem is that you are assuming a town lynch on D1 is bad for the town. In the short term, sure, but in the long term, scum are caught by the way they choose to interact with the players who ultimately end up lynched (town or scum), and in particular how and when they choose to vote or not to vote those players. By random lynching, you remove that key information. We'd still retain some information if we lynched at random now, sure, but not nearly as much as we'd get from the usual D1 approach.

Scum can't manipulate the lynch without leaving some evidence that they have done so; the stronger they exert their influence on it, the more likely they are to be caught out for having done so on future days. So yes, scum manipulation means that D1 lynches are more likely to hit town than random lynching. But I think it also means that D2, D3, etc. lynches are more likely to hit scum than town.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, your problem is that you are assuming a town lynch on D1 is bad for the town. In the short term, sure, but in the long term, scum are caught by the way they choose to interact with the players who ultimately end up lynched (town or scum), and in particular how and when they choose to vote or not to vote those players. By random lynching, you remove that key information. We'd still retain some information if we lynched at random now, sure, but not nearly as much as we'd get from the usual D1 approach.

Scum can't manipulate the lynch without leaving some evidence that they have done so; the stronger they exert their influence on it, the more likely they are to be caught out for having done so on future days. So yes, scum manipulation means that D1 lynches are more likely to hit town than random lynching. But I think it also means that D2, D3, etc. lynches are more likely to hit scum than town.

That's the point I was most concerned about. Do you think a slightly better chance of hitting scum now is worth the information we'd lose from the end-half of where the votes go? Do you think any information can be generated from who agrees to a random lynch and who doesn't? How important is D1 information in the scheme of the whole game?

[xRECKONERx]

I'm conflicted on that topic... D1 info is important, but honestly, I don't remember an endgame scenario where the D1 information played a HUGE role in determining the outcome of the game. I think I'd be okay with a random lynch. The other problem with a random lynch is that we have a chance of hitting a town PR... or outing one... but I guess that's a risk you take?

[ekiM]

D1 info may not be relevant in the endgame, but it's sure as hell relevant D2.

I'd much rather lynch someone who has been patently useless today. Either they're an unhelpful townie, which is a small lose, or they're scum going for the "lol im so bad at scumhunting guys" tactic, which is a big win.

So, let's lynch MrSuave or tubby. I don't care much which.

[ekiM]

Oh and geek got replaced; could lynch his replacement.

[Hoopla]

I'm conflicted on that topic... D1 info is important, but honestly, I don't remember an endgame scenario where the D1 information played a HUGE role in determining the outcome of the game. I think I'd be okay with a random lynch. The other problem with a random lynch is that we have a chance of hitting a town PR... or outing one... but I guess that's a risk you take?

We randomly select the lynch. Make them claim. If we don't believe them, we can then continue on with the lynching.