Mini 886 - Popcorn Mafia - Game over!

Elmo
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Post Post #0  (isolation #0)  » Fri Nov 20, 2009 9:20 am

Status: Game over!
Deadline: None.

The Living (5)
  • Yosarian2, Vanilla Townie
  • Maemuki (Replaced Slicey on Day 2), Vanilla Townie
  • ortolan, Vanilla Townie
  • HackerHuck (Replaced rite on Day 1), Vanilla Townie - Gunbearer
  • LlamaFluff (Replaced Xylthixlm on Day 6), Vanilla Townie
The Dead (6)
  • Vala Mal Doran, Vanilla Townie, misfired at Bogre on Day 1
  • Bogre, Vanilla Townie, hit the deadline on Day 2
  • AlmasterGM (Replaced Zakeri on Day 1), Mafia Goon, shot by DragonsOfSummer on Day 3
  • Sarag, Mafia Goon, shot by DragonsOfSummer on Day 4
  • DragonsofSummer, Vanilla Townie, misfired at HackerHuck on Day 5
  • DrippingGoofball, Mafia Goon, Shot by HackerHuck on Day 6
    • Temp-replaced Nachomamma8 on Day 6,
    • who replaced rewq455 on Day 2,
    • who replaced DraketheFake on Day 1
  • HowardRoark (Replaced Vaya on Day 1), Mafia Goon, Shot by HackerHuck on Day 7
Last edited by Elmo on Mon Feb 22, 2010 7:18 pm, edited 25 times in total.
Succinctness is pro-town.

Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford

Elmo
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Post Post #1  (isolation #1)  » Fri Nov 20, 2009 9:56 am

Most towns reach a point where they feel the need to massclaim. Claiming order is important, since later claims have more information about the setup and are easier to fake; one way of deciding this, called "popcorn" claiming, is to pick a random person to claim first, and then have them pick someone who claims and picks someone else who claims and picks someone, and so on. But how effective is this system, and how would a mafia game based around it play out?



The Setup
Nightless; 8 townies, 4 mafia.
The mafia pick a townie to be the first gunbearer.
The town discuss amongst themselves, and the gunbearer picks someone to target by posting shoot Elmo or similar.
If their target is mafia, the target dies and the gunbearer keeps the gun.
If their target is town, the gunbearer dies and the target becomes the new gunbearer.
Repeat until all mafia are dead, or the mafia's numbers equal the non-gunbearing townies.

Deadlines will be 24 days for Day 1, 21 days for Day 2, and 18 days thereafter; prods will be every 48 hours. If the deadline hits, the gunbearer will shoot themselves and the mafia pick a new gunbearer. If you go five days without posting, you'll be replaced. The gunbearer is announced publicly each day, and is therefore confirmed innocent.

Possible Roles PMs
Vanilla Townie wrote:You are a Vanilla Townie.
You win when all the mafia members are dead.

Please immediately reply "confirm" or similar if you're ready, or PM me any questions you may have. The game thread is here.
Mafia Goon wrote:You are a Mafia Goon.
Your partners are ___, ___, and ___. You may communicate at any time; I have created a quicktopic for you here.
You win when the number of living mafia members equal or exceed the number of living townies, minus the gunbearer.

Please immediately reply "confirm" or similar if you're ready, or PM me any questions you may have. The game thread is here.
Role PMs should be out by the time you read this. If you don't have one, PM me. If you don't confirm within 48 hours, I'll replace you; we'll begin when everyone has confirmed, and the mafia have picked the first gunbearer. I'd tell you to bandwagon to victory, but...
Succinctness is pro-town.

Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford

Elmo
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Post Post #2  (isolation #2)  » Sun Nov 22, 2009 11:12 am

Day 1 dawns!

The first gunbearer is Vala Mal Doran.
The deadline is Wednesday 16th December, 22:00 UTC, which is 24 days, 5 hours and 47 minutes from this post.
Succinctness is pro-town.

Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford

Elmo
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Post Post #74  (isolation #3)  » Wed Nov 25, 2009 8:31 pm

Vaya, Slicey, DraketheFake & Zakeri have been prodded.
Succinctness is pro-town.

Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford

Elmo
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Post Post #144  (isolation #4)  » Tue Dec 01, 2009 11:48 pm

Vaya, DragonsofSummer, rite, DraketheFake & Bogre have been prodded.
Succinctness is pro-town.

Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford

Elmo
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Post Post #203  (isolation #5)  » Sat Dec 05, 2009 2:10 pm

HowardRoark replaces Vaya. Thanks!

DraketheFake, Sarag & Zakeri have been prodded; Slicey & rite are V/LA.
Succinctness is pro-town.

Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford

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Post Post #224  (isolation #6)  » Mon Dec 07, 2009 11:37 pm

DraketheFake was prodded Saturday the 5th and has about 15 hours until I look for a replacement.
Slicey is marked as V/LA in his sig, and rite declared V/LA until today (Monday) in his last post; I'll prod them by request, since you ask.
Bogre & Vala Mal Doran have been prodded.
Succinctness is pro-town.

Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford

Elmo
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Post Post #231  (isolation #7)  » Tue Dec 08, 2009 2:58 pm

Looking for a DraketheFake replacement.
HackerHuck replaces rite. Thanks!

The deadline is Wednesday 16th December, 22:00 UTC which is 8 days, 2 hours and 1 minute from this post.
Succinctness is pro-town.

Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford

Elmo
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Post Post #288  (isolation #8)  » Thu Dec 10, 2009 6:30 pm

rewq455 replaces DraketheFake. Thanks!

The deadline is Wednesday 16th December, 22:00 UTC, which is 5 days, 22 hours and 29 minutes from this post.
Succinctness is pro-town.

Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford

Elmo
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Post Post #303  (isolation #9)  » Sat Dec 12, 2009 12:10 pm

DragonsofSummer has been prodded.

The deadline is Wednesday 16th December, 22:00 UTC, which is 4 days, 4 hours and 49 minutes from this post.
Succinctness is pro-town.

Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford

Elmo
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Post Post #324  (isolation #10)  » Sun Dec 13, 2009 6:44 pm

Yosarian2, Sarag & Zakeri have been prodded.
Succinctness is pro-town.

Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford

Elmo
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Post Post #330  (isolation #11)  » Mon Dec 14, 2009 7:05 pm

The deadline is Wednesday 16th December, 22:00 UTC, which is 1 day, 21 hours and 54 minutes from this post.
Succinctness is pro-town.

Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford

Elmo
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Post Post #377  (isolation #12)  » Tue Dec 15, 2009 8:38 pm

Zakeri has requested replacement.

The deadline is Wednesday 16th December, 22:00 UTC, which is 20 hours and 21 minutes from this post.
Succinctness is pro-town.

Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford

Elmo
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Post Post #379  (isolation #13)  » Tue Dec 15, 2009 9:02 pm

AlmasterGM replaces Zakeri. Thanks!
Succinctness is pro-town.

Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford

Elmo
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Post Post #391  (isolation #14)  » Wed Dec 16, 2009 12:31 pm

Vala Mal Doran points the unfriendly end at Bogre and squeezes. Bogre's ninja townie instincts kick in, and all of a sudden Vala's lying on the floor and Bogre's holding the gun!

Day 2 dawns!

The gunbearer is Bogre.
The deadline is Wednesday 6th January 2010, 22:00 UTC, which is 21 days, 4 hours and 28 minutes from this post.

Note: I am considering changing the deadline based on how busy people are over Christmas. Feel free to PM me if you have any input!
Succinctness is pro-town.

Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford

Elmo
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Post Post #463  (isolation #15)  » Mon Dec 21, 2009 4:46 pm

ortolan, Slicey & Sarag have been prodded.
Succinctness is pro-town.

Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford

Elmo
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Post Post #532  (isolation #16)  » Tue Dec 29, 2009 10:01 am

Slicey has requested replacement.

The deadline is Wednesday 6th January 2010, 22:00 UTC, which is 8 days, 6 hours and 59 minutes from this post.
Succinctness is pro-town.

Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford

Elmo
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Post Post #535  (isolation #17)  » Wed Dec 30, 2009 9:30 am

Nachomamma8 replaces rewq455. Maemuki replaces Slicey. Thanks to both of you!

The deadline is Wednesday 6th January 2010, 22:00 UTC, which is 7 days, 7 hours and 29 minutes from this post.
Succinctness is pro-town.

Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford

Elmo
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Post Post #636  (isolation #18)  » Wed Jan 06, 2010 9:15 pm

The deadline is Wednesday 6th January 2010, 22:00 UTC, which is 4 hours and 16 minutes previous to this post.

Bogre just can't take the strain and opts to blow his brains out rather than risk hurting a townie. Ironic, seeing as he was one.
The mafia will now pick the next gunbearer; you have 48 hours, or random.org decides for you. The thread will be locked until the mafia make their selection.
Succinctness is pro-town.

Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford

Elmo
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Post Post #637  (isolation #19)  » Sat Jan 09, 2010 4:56 am

Day 3 dawns!

The gunbearer is DragonsofSummer.
The deadline is Wednesday 27th January, 22:00 UTC, which is 18 days, 12 hours and 3 minutes from this post.
Succinctness is pro-town.

Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford

Elmo
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Post Post #648  (isolation #20)  » Sat Jan 09, 2010 9:40 pm

DragonsofSummer has been prodded by request.
Succinctness is pro-town.

Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford

Elmo
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Post Post #653  (isolation #21)  » Sun Jan 10, 2010 8:50 pm

HowardRoark has been prodded.
Succinctness is pro-town.

Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford

Elmo
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Post Post #685  (isolation #22)  » Sat Jan 16, 2010 8:28 am

ortolan, HackerHuck, Sarag & AlmasterGM have been prodded.

The deadline is Wednesday 27th January, 22:00 UTC, which is 11 days, 8 hours and 31 minutes from this post.
Succinctness is pro-town.

Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford

Elmo
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Post Post #697  (isolation #23)  » Mon Jan 18, 2010 8:48 pm

DragonsofSummer, ortolan & Nachomamma8 have been prodded.
Succinctness is pro-town.

Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford

Elmo
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Post Post #713  (isolation #24)  » Thu Jan 21, 2010 1:07 am

DragonsofSummer, Yosarian2 & Maemuki have been prodded.

The deadline is Wednesday 27th January, 22:00 UTC, which is 6 days, 15 hours and 52 minutes from this post.
Succinctness is pro-town.

Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford

Elmo
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Post Post #717  (isolation #25)  » Thu Jan 21, 2010 9:24 am

DragonsofSummer lines up the tab with the middle of the circle and squeezes for a while. AlmasterGM, Mafia Goon does a very convincing swiss cheese impression.

Day 4 dawns!
The gunbearer is still DragonsofSummer.
The deadline is Monday 8th February, 22:00 UTC, which is 18 days, 7 hours and 36 minutes from this post.
Succinctness is pro-town.

Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford

Elmo
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Post Post #734  (isolation #26)  » Fri Jan 22, 2010 12:59 am

DragonsofSummer figures this thing has an "auto" setting for a reason and keeps firing, onto Sarag's direction. The Mafia Goon's remains aren't pretty.

Day 5 dawns!
The gunbearer is still DragonsofSummer.
The deadline is Tuesday 9th February, 22:00 UTC, which is 18 days and 16 hours from this post.
Succinctness is pro-town.

Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford

Elmo
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Post Post #764  (isolation #27)  » Sun Jan 24, 2010 7:30 pm

Nachomamma8 & DragonsofSummer have been prodded.
Succinctness is pro-town.

Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford

Elmo
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Post Post #769  (isolation #28)  » Mon Jan 25, 2010 2:11 am

DragonsofSummer turns towards HackerHuck with a maniacal grin on his face. Unfortunately, in his haste for more bloodshed, he trips and the gun slips from his fingers. Stuck on full auto, it starts to spray bullets everywhere, bouncing off the walls and ceiling until it falls neatly into HackerHuck's hand. Oddly, no-one but the original holder was stuck by the flying lead - and he's now in no condition to make use of it.

Day 6 dawns!
The deadline is Friday 12th February, 22:00 UTC, which is 18 days, 14 hours and 49 minutes from this post.
Succinctness is pro-town.

Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford

Elmo
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Post Post #788  (isolation #29)  » Thu Jan 28, 2010 8:39 pm

Maemuki has been prodded.

The deadline is Friday 12th February, 22:00 UTC, which is 14 days, 20 hours and 20 minutes from this post.
Succinctness is pro-town.

Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford

Elmo
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Post Post #805  (isolation #30)  » Tue Feb 02, 2010 12:14 am

Maemuki & Xylthixlm have been prodded.

The deadline is Friday 12th February, 22:00 UTC, which is 10 days, 16 hours and 45 minutes from this post.
Succinctness is pro-town.

Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford

Elmo
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Post Post #813  (isolation #31)  » Sat Feb 06, 2010 3:29 pm

LlamaFluff replaces Xylthixlm.
Nachomamma8 is V/LA until the 14th; I'm looking for a temporary replacement for him.

HowardRoark & Yosarian2 have been prodded.

The deadline is Friday 12th February, 22:00 UTC, which is 6 days, 1 hour and 30 minutes from this post.
Succinctness is pro-town.

Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford

Elmo
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Post Post #822  (isolation #32)  » Sat Feb 06, 2010 9:51 pm

DrippingGoofball replaces Nachomamma8 until the 14th. Thanks!
Succinctness is pro-town.

Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford

Elmo
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Post Post #865  (isolation #33)  » Tue Feb 09, 2010 10:52 pm

HackerHuck aims carefully and shoots. DrippingGoofball looks inquisitively back at Hacker, as if waiting for a punchline. Hacker examines the gun for a moment before emptying the rest of clip into DGB - she just stands there, grinning. "Do I get the gun now? Do I? Please!? I wish I'd brought my own..." she screeches, until finally the Mafia Goon passes out from blood loss and quietly falls to the floor.

Day 7 dawns!
The gunbearer is still HackerHuck.
The deadline is Saturday, 27th February, 22:00 UTC, which is 17 days, 18 hours and 7 minutes from this post.
Succinctness is pro-town.

Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford

Elmo
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Post Post #894  (isolation #34)  » Sun Feb 21, 2010 4:51 pm

HackerHuck, LlamaFluff & HowardRoark have been prodded.

The deadline is Saturday, 27th February, 22:00 UTC, which is 6 days and 8 minutes from this post.
Succinctness is pro-town.

Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford

Elmo
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Post Post #900  (isolation #35)  » Mon Feb 22, 2010 7:11 pm

HackerHuck blows away HowardRoark, Mafia Goon.

Town wins!

I'm curious what everyone thought of this setup, I'll give my thoughts a bit later.
Succinctness is pro-town.

Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford

Elmo
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Post Post #914  (isolation #36)  » Tue Feb 23, 2010 8:22 am

Yeah, Bogre's missed shot was fairly lucky, I did intend for that to be a small negative for the town rather than just an incentive to shoot, but in retrospect I wish I'd done something different; it seems a silly way to influence a game. I should probably have just said I'll lock the game until I receive it.

Vala Mal Doran wrote:Shoot: Bogre

I've been intending to make this shot for a long time. Once rewq started posting especially, I knew I wasn't going to go after Drake like I had been considering because he partially resolved the issues I had with Drake. He doesn't quite make up for his predecessor's bad behaviour, but it's enough to move Bogre back up to the top spot.
Bogre wrote:So, here are my scum reads, and everyone has until deadline to give last thoughts:

Sarag- Slight
Nachomamma- Heavy
HowardRoark-Heavy

Noncontributors: DOS, Almaster, Ortolan


Also, something else I noticed (I bet Yos will love this):
Elmo's Prods, Days 1 & 2 wrote:Vaya, Slicey, DraketheFake & Zakeri have been prodded.
Vaya, DragonsofSummer, rite, DraketheFake & Bogre have been prodded.
HowardRoark replaces Vaya. Thanks!
DraketheFake, Sarag & Zakeri have been prodded; Slicey & rite are V/LA.
Bogre & Vala Mal Doran have been prodded.
HackerHuck replaces rite. Thanks!
rewq455 replaces DraketheFake. Thanks!
DragonsofSummer has been prodded.
Yosarian2, Sarag & Zakeri have been prodded.
AlmasterGM replaces Zakeri. Thanks!
ortolan, Slicey & Sarag have been prodded.
Nachomamma8 replaces rewq455. Maemuki replaces Slicey. Thanks to both of you!


Prods (22)
Scum are 4:8, so you would expect about 7 scum prods to 15 town prods. The final count is 11:11.
DraketheFake: 3
Sarag: 3
Zakeri: 3

Bogre: 2
DragonsofSummer: 2
Slicey: 2
Vaya: 2

HackerHuck: 1
ortolan: 1
rite: 1
Vala Mal Doran: 1
Yosarian2: 1

6 slots were replaced, 3:3 again. If you exclude Nacho's temp-replacement, then people flaking were 4 scum and 3 town.

I would imagine that this would work more accurately based on measurement relative to a moving average, since the activity of everyone dipped somewhat later on.
Succinctness is pro-town.

Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford

Elmo
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Post Post #924  (isolation #37)  » Wed Feb 24, 2010 11:28 pm

I do not. Best I know, he disappeared into thin air. :(
Succinctness is pro-town.

Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford

Elmo
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Post Post #928  (isolation #38)  » Mon Mar 01, 2010 10:10 am

Herodotus wrote:I see the talk about lurking, and that the scum did it more than the town. How big of a problem was inactivity?
I think in this game most of the information required to find scum was produced early on when activity was pretty good. Bogre hadn't been driving the game and producing information in the same way Vala had, but if you look at Bogre's suspicions close to Day 2 deadline I think it's clear that town was in very good shape at that point, although credit's due to Bogre for getting some very accurate reads out of it, I wouldn't be surprised if he was the most accurate player at that point in fact. But I do feel that if that information wasn't available at that point and activity wasn't sustained, town would have had a much harder time of things.

What do people think of the prods? I wanted to institute some stronger activity rules like mandatory replacement / modkill after X prods but I felt that might actually harm the town more if it was needed.

Herodotus wrote:If the setup was run again, the players might use this game for background -- which means lurking could receive harsh attention. Do you think that might be sufficient incentive to keep people active?
I do think that scum have far more problems generating content in this setup, and that lurking is a big tell here. I can't really articulate exactly why that is. I do think that townies should make a special effort to be active & lynch lurkers if this is run again since it's a stronger tell than normal.

Herodotus wrote:Is low activity even a problem, given that only one player needs to make a big decision each day?
I do think it's a big problem for the town because they must base that decision on things that people said and it's relatively hard to get information in Kingmaker setups anyway.

When making the setup, I did think that the best choice for the first gunbearer would be the most experienced player. One think that I knew but didn't really click until pre-game was that it's similar to the most experienced player being nightkilled N0, since the odds of a successful shot on Day 1 are quite low. I don't like that, but I think it's okay since they do get to have a significant impact on the game first.

In retrospect, it's actually probably closer than I thought. If you pick a less experienced player to start out with, it's much less likely the town gets off to a good start and then they lack info on subsequent days; the gunbearer is critical in driving the game, and given town can only afford 3 mislynches, there's actually a decent chance they could lose without any dead scum. Infact if scum don't pick the most experienced then I think that's their best chance of winning, since (as we saw here) the endgame is immensely painful. It's my contention that not being able to kill off people who look town is one of the biggest problems scum face in nightless games and they're correspondingly far less likely to win as time goes on, as opposed to nightful games where better players tend to get killed off over time and they usually have a relatively easier time in endgame than midgame (I'm something of a skeptic about the conventional wisdom on vanilla balance given actual results). One person who deserves probably more credit that she's getting is is Vala Mal Doran, who did a very good job of getting people active and talking on Day 1, I thought. Many gunbears would have done an inferior job and I don't know it would have gone so well for the town in that case.
Succinctness is pro-town.

Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford


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