Mini 886 - Popcorn Mafia - Game over!

[ortolan]

Public service announcement:

Do not deliberately act scummy so that you will get the gun.

.

I know someone is considering it. Don't.

That is all.

How do you know this, pray tell?

[ortolan]

@ortolan: Have you ever played any real-life mafia, and if so, do you prefer it to forum mafia? Why or why not?

Not really I do recall playing "murder in the dark" when I was very very young, I can't even remember how that worked though and it would be completely irrelevant to my approach to mafia nowadays.

I also already find rite, Zakeri, and even Drake scummy

[ortolan]

Sorry, scratch that. I already find rite, Zakeri, Drake,

and

DragonsofSummer scummy.

[ortolan]

do your research please, Bogre always acts like this; it's clearly naught but a null-tell from him.

Plus I already pegged all the scum, so I know Bogre can't be scum.

rite has the consistent defensive and self-explanatory tone which I associate with newb-scum. Of course, he's clearly in no way a newb but it's been ages since he's played properly. I think he's inexperienced with the game recently and thus this tell becomes valid again. Also post 26 gives me a vibe of going out of his way to be unbiased in his self-assessment.

I can tell you that in the past I've been prodded for lurking, pretty much equally when I'm scum or when I'm town. Basically, while I may be one of the town members most likely to lurk, I don't think that would tell you anything about my role, unfortunately.

Town players don't want to give information like this so that they can be evaluated "fairly", they want to convince others that they're town. It looks like he is going out of his way to appear "honest" rather than acting how a townie actually would- trying to convince people that they're town.

DoS' 41 is one of the scummiest posts I've ever seen. He goes down this completely, 100% irrelevant tangent of "what the point of shooting yourself would be". The answer is none. It's not even an issue worth considering for 2 seconds. The second paragraph is also really really scummy.

A quick reactionary question?

Do we know for sure that we are unable to shoot ourselves anyway? It isn't stated that we can't, and that would be one hell of a blow to the town IMO (A day with no lynch except worse because of how this game works).

I see no purpose for this paragraph, except for the bolded part. What the bolded part serves to do is imply that he is town in a self-conscious manner: "Do

we

know for sure that

we

are unable to shoot ourselves anyway?" He is going out of his way to speculate as to what he'd do when he were in a certain position i.e. in possession of the gun. Of course, you need to be town to ever be in possession of the gun because if you're scum you don't get the gun when you get shot, you just die. So all this post/paragraph is is a long and convoluted and self-conscious way of implying that he is town.

He

also

acted extremely scummily in response to my announced but unjustified suspicions of him

Why do you find me scummy? Because if I was the gun bearer I wouldn't jokingly shoot myself? Ortolan you make no sense.

He instantly leaps to assumptions about what my reasons for suspecting him are (why would any townie do that?). How does he know that was my reason for suspecting him anyway? Guilty conscience about that self-conscious original post methinks.

Looking over the game I am less sure about Zakeri and Drake but will do those later.

[ortolan]

you're parodying your aggressive town play here Xyl, I expect more from you

[ortolan]

wait how is Bogre scummy ITT, and how are we scummy by proxy for defending him; when he clearly acts like this every game. Do you disagree?

[ortolan]

If someone acts anti-town as scum why wouldn't they act anti-town as town?

[ortolan]

do your research please, Bogre always acts like this;

Ok, how so?

look at his post history, I can't reference ongoing games

Here is the problem Ort.

I was asked to answer that question.

Try reading the thread before you jump to conclusions. Vala asked me whether I would, so I answered her question.

The offending question was your own one which you added:

A quick reactionary question? Do we know for sure that we are unable to shoot ourselves anyway? It isn't stated that we can't, and that would be one hell of a blow to the town IMO (A day with no lynch except worse because of how this game works).

As for your second point, saying me putting we in my statement is scummy, thats grasping at straws and ludicrous.

Yer I'll bet.

Also, you first say you associate newb scum with being "defensive," then say you associate them with giving out information so they can be "evaulated 'fairly'". I don't understand; these two appear to be at odds.

No, I associate them with being defensive and self-explanatory, which you were, and I didn't say "giving out information" is a scum-tell, I said you looked like you looked like you were trying really hard to give the impression of giving out "neutral"-sounding information, and in fact were overacting the extent to which a townie would give out this sort of information.

Your attacking of DoS for answering a question represents either a fundamental misreading of the game, or an eagerness to attack SOMEONE that is often displayed by scum.

yeahhhhhhhhhhhh...no. What I attacked him for wasn't his answer to a question, it was one who tacked on, so it's all moot.

This townie wants to be evaluated "fairly" and is perfectly happy to offer information that makes himself look scummy if it happens to be true.

Irrelevant because the information rite gave out didn't serve to make him look scummy anyways.

I don't like the attempt to cut through my points with arbitrary philosophical method by rite and DoS. rite in particular strikes me as more scummy whereas I can still see DoS going either way. I will re-read Sarag if you like, Slicey.

[ortolan]

Sarag's early posts look pro-town (I almost feel the "I considered acting scummy to get the gun" comment is actually more likely to come from town). More recently I dunno, she's obviously intelligent and I have no familiarity with her playstyle so I'm not sure how to interpet some of the stuff she's said. I do feel that the proposed Sarag-Bogre scumpair possibility is deeply retarded; if anything I would think the way she inititally FoSed Bogre was more likely to come from scum reluctant to attack a townie too hard than from scum-scum. As I don't think she's scum with Bogre 114 gets her more pro-town points.

I'm also surprised at Xyl positing the Bogre-Sarag scumpair himself, I think he might be in scum-mode tbh. IIRC I had a strong contingent-town tell on Drake also, which makes me even more skeptical of his list.

[ortolan]

Which clearly involves my statement about shooting one's self. Then you say that wasn't part of your attack at all?

Twisting my words. That's a scumtell.

Recap:

I attack you with:

I see no purpose for this paragraph, except for the bolded part. What the bolded part serves to do is imply that he is town in a self-conscious manner: "Do we know for sure that we are unable to shoot ourselves anyway?" He is going out of his way to speculate as to what he'd do when he were in a certain position i.e. in possession of the gun. Of course, you need to be town to ever be in possession of the gun because if you're scum you don't get the gun when you get shot, you just die. So all this post/paragraph is is a long and convoluted and self-conscious way of implying that he is town

rah rah rah

- you respond that you only posted the offending (scummy) content because you had to give a reply

- I reply that no, the scummy content was contained within your self-proclaimed "reactionary question", thereby refuting your defence based on the fact you were obliged to say that in answer to a question.

No backtracking, no contradictions, no nothing (on my part). You is scummy.

[ortolan]

fyi I never do. I would only defend someone as scum if I would defend them as town.

[ortolan]

Both of these look like vicious implants of thoughts into someone else's mouth. They're basically just gotcha games in the very sense of the word - "GOTCHA! You were trying to make yourself look like a townie by feigning concern for your play in a position only a townie could be in!" or "GOTCHA! You were trying to figure out why I suspected you, and you got it right, which must mean you knew you were doing something scummy even though I didn't call you out on it, A HA!"

Despite desperate proclamations to the opposite, Xyl's opinion is fallible. I'd say only about half of his scumlist is right by now, and I'm think it's the Bogre/Ort half right now because of this.

You are pretending the "GOTCHA" part of the way you are expressing things has any meaning. What I have put forward is no different to putting forward a normal scumtell. Saying it is a "GOTCHA" argument, whatever that means, doesn't suddenly make it invalid, and me scummy for putting it forward. Sorry about that.

[ortolan]

oh, I get it, you mean the "vicious implants of thoughts into someone else's mouth." You mean speculating about the psychology behind what he is saying? Yer, that's a good way of catching scum. You should try it sometime. Oh wait, you are, you are analysing me in the same way. Which means you are equally guilty of using "GOTCHA" arguments. That makes you scummy by your own logic. Hint: speculating about people's motives isnt scummy, in and of itself.

[ortolan]

fyi I never do. I would only defend someone as scum if I would defend them as town.

Unfortunately for you, when you're scum you're horrible at judging what you would have done as town.

source?

[ortolan]

I just iso read Xyl again, he's playing pretty much exactly like he did in LAL, ergo he's very likely to be town. That doesn't mean his scumlist doesn't suck though.

[ortolan]

Scum: Bogre, Sarag, ortolan, DraketheFake

I would bet 0, or 1 of these people is scum

p.s. the "1" isn't me

[ortolan]

- me

[ortolan]

I know the avatar confuses people, and I don't mind people mistaking me for a girl, but this is one step too far.

You should see how pissed off ZazieR got when I repeatedly got him mixed up with you

What makes you think it was "Out of his way" to say something like this?

Let me put it this way: How would you imagine he would have said what he said if he were town as oppose to if he were scum? Do you believe that there is a significant enough chance that he would have said "The gunbearer" instead of "We" if he were town? Enough to call him out as scum for it?

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt, and say that you're missing the whole point. What he said didn't need to be said. He was considering (pretending to consider IMO) whether one could shoot oneself if one were the gunbearer. Why the hell would one consider that? That's like saying haha guys do you reckon it might be fun to shoot oneself if one were a pro-town vig? haha yer didn't think so. It was just a pointless diversion, and I can't see any reason for bringing it up, unless perhaps one wanted to imply "well I

could

shoot myself, because I

could

become a gunbearer, because I

am

town. Do you understand where my attack is coming from now? There was no benefit to what he was saying information-wise, the only possible motivation I can attribute to saying that is the implication that he is town. Ergo it's scummy.

[ortolan]

A quick reactionary question? Do we know for sure that we are unable to shoot ourselves anyway? It isn't stated that we can't, and that would be one hell of a blow to the town IMO (A day with no lynch except worse because of how this game works).

The correct answer to the original question was "uh, no, that's stupid". He went far too far with his reply.

Vala: what did you hope to achieve by asking the question, and do you think DoS' response was scummy?

[ortolan]

I want to know what the intention of your question was, and whether she thinks the response was scummy. I'm not interrogating her, I knows she's town, I just want to see in detail what she thinks of the response and how it matches to responses she might have expected.

[ortolan]

I would think would be more willing to let the gunbearer keep their cards close to their chest if that's what they choose to do.

How do you know that's what she's chosen to do? I know that was her approach from the beginning, I don't think it's necessarily optimal play to be doing it now. If she announces who she thinks she's going to kill; and then we all give feedback on it, that seems like it will just generate even more information, which is a good thing.

I also just want to know what her reasoning was out of my own curiosity and for my own purposes, I don't have in mind whether people will interpret it as trying to "manipulate" the gun-bearer.

I also want to know how the opinions of a confirmed town player compare to my own, because that is a good way of calibrating whether the reactions I might get from other players are town or scummy.

[ortolan]

good for you, I don't care. I'm tryina catch scum, not appeal to how people (illogically) think a townie should act, which is what I'd do if I was actually scum.

[ortolan]

Xyl: I dunno about Drake. I found his first post scummy, I think that was for tone somehow, but it wasn't a very good read by me. While I heavily dislike PBPAs because I find them hard to navigate and not very useful; his post 88 looks like it features a lot of earnest reasoning. The main thing is he displays some attitude, but I'm sure he'd equally display that attitude as scum if he'd display it as town.

I'm also not sure what he'd have to gain as scum particularly by arguing what he is with Xyl. It's possible he's doing it to feign activity though.

Drake: who would you say are your top four scum suspects in the game?

In looking at Bogre in the process I actually think there is a good chance he's scum. His macho ramblings and hyper-aggressiveness I think may be going too far for him, compared to how he usually plays. And it looks like he might just be OMGUSing everyone deliberately to suggest he is townie playing badly.

Why? (Why do I have to ask that?)

I like to leave people hanging sometimes. It's entertaining. Also it can elicit some good reactions.

So how do you propose that we handle him?

Now that I've reconsidered, shooting him might be a good idea.

~~~

I would go for a shot on rite, DoS, Bogre or Zakeri.

[ortolan]

Scum: Bogre, Sarag, ortolan, DraketheFake

Still happy about this list. Sarag has the potential to remove himself if he starts actually playing. The other three had better hope that someone else does something really really scummy, because otherwise they'll be my top suspects for a while...

do you think posting this might discourage these players from attacking you?

[ortolan]

If Sarag is scum, she is scum with rite fo sho, and Drake is town

I don't really get this... Ortolan, would you clarify, please?

It can be useful. One example is if a confirmed town player finds you scummy. You know that if people claim to find you scummy for the same reasons their sentiments may be more likely to be genuine.

either way I would like a shot on rite numero uno

[ortolan]

Bogre’s my second, but I think he's a bad target if we're wrong. He might do a decent job at finding scum as the shooter, but he'd need to take his sights off of me and Xyl before I'd feel really comfortable risking that. It's not so much that I don't think he's really scummy, it's that being wrong about Bogre would be like killing two townies.

QFS

[ortolan]

And why are you so sure he's town Xyl? I wouldn't be too happy getting shot by Bogre if I was scum either. Just because it's an obv-scum-tell doesn't mean it's not a scum-tell.

[ortolan]

I don’t really care for any part of his post 91. He makes interesting observations about Rite and Bogre, but I’m curious where he got his insight. I noticed later that he seems to make a meta case on someone based on a single game he played with them. Later in post 125 he really just dismisses all arguments against him without explaining why they’re invalid. It’s like he’s just pulling the jedi mind trick - "I'm not the scum you're looking for".

I disagree that any of these are good attacks whatsoever. But then I would, wouldn't I.

[ortolan]

more detail about why those actions described are scummy and less-Zakeri style allusions which don't actually mean anything e.g. "I'm not the scum you're looking for". Also metaing based on one game isn't scummy in and of itself. Making interesting observations about someone but you not knowing where my insight comes from is also not scummy. So unless you go into more detail I conclude u got nothin'

[ortolan]

drake isn't scum, I'm not scum, Hacker's last post makes me suspect he's worried about being shot by town-Bogre (not that Bogre's other posts haven't themselves been scummy).

Dunno about Sarag.

[ortolan]

@Hacker: We were scum together in Board Game Mafia! Good to see you again!

Distancing!

[ortolan]

oh wait...I was confused...HackerHuck replaced rite?

wow that's really, really, really really, really, really obv-scum right there. Please kill him. Seriously. He's scum.

[ortolan]

Top 3? Zakeri, Bogre, Slicey/DraketheFake.

Can you tell me why you picked these players, and what the links between them are?

scumteam atm looks like: DoS, Hacker, Sarag, Zakeri

[ortolan]

Are you now thinking that Bogre is scum? Weren't you of the opinion that Bogre is town?

I thought he was null, then I thought he was scum, now I'm thinking he's town because of your concern about being shot by him.

Sarag or Hacker would be great picks imho

[ortolan]

Post 88 just reeks of him being town to me. Plus everyone's bandwagoning him based on real crap/no reasoning.

He doesn't fit in with who I think are the scumsss either.

The case that DraketheFake has mounted against me feels very much like clutching at straws, and like opportunistic bandwagoning (metaphorically of course, since there are no votes - but he followed a few others' accusations that felt more genuine to me). At the risk of being accused of OMGUS, small

FoS: DraketheFake

. If anyone actually cares, I will defend but I'd rather not waste everyone's time.

Everyone bar Sarag, DoS, Zakeri 'n' Hacker have acted substantively town, and they have acted substantively scummy. Start killin' these players and we can rap the game up, Vala.

[ortolan]

I call slander until you actually pull up these "allusions" and describe how they don't mean anything. I believe I've tried my best to explain why I think your route of attack on DoS is poor and likely scum based.

Remember the whole "gotcha" discussion where I said that "gotcha" attacks are the same things as psychological scum-tells, and therefore not scummy at all? I do. Were there any other points you raised against me? I don't believe so.

[ortolan]

It's still bad play, dipping into a test sample of one pool for something as fickle as meta.

Not at all. I've seen people try to draw meta from 10 different games and because they're n00b @ mafia the meta they have derived is crap and useless anyway. Quality, not quantity. If you work out behaviour that people genuinely have difficulty changing, then it's going to be effective regardless of where it's drawn from (bear in mind I don't even remember who I apparently meta'ed at this point). Noobs are still gonna read 10 different games and say "omg, Zakeri, in 9/10 of your town games your average post length is 3 lines long, in your scum game your average post length was 5 lines long. You have one 6-line post in this game

Vote: Zakeri

"

Slicey: I don't think Xyl is scum. Merely wrong.

[ortolan]

because Hacker is trying to implicate a townie along with himself

[ortolan]

the content of DoS, Hacker, Sarag and Zakeri's role PMs have not changed since I last posted.

[ortolan]

ok. you caught me.

[ortolan]

you must be a mindreader Xyl, I was literally gonna make a comment like that yesterday...but with my scumlist.

Please by all means shoot me though, the majority of the town seem to favour it and I would relish the opportunity to get 4 perfect vig shots.

[ortolan]

I told u he was town. Assuming he is and isn't lying. Please shoot HackerHuck.

[ortolan]

I dislike both the ortolan and Slicey posts after the trigger was pulled.

Uh no cause I said he was a bad choice before he was shot also

[ortolan]

I am telling you, just kill Hacker, DoS, Sarag and AlmasterGM

One misfire won't stop us getting a scummy, our scummy can still be saved

[ortolan]

because Zakeri was scum before he was replaced by Almaster. Have you been reading my posts?

[ortolan]

wow dos and hackerhuck and Almaster are all sooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo obviously scum together. Sarag decided not to go down the same path as the rest of the scum, but I'm on to her too, much to her chagrin.

[ortolan]

DoS dude that seriously won't work against me. I'm still going to blow you away in a heartbeat despite that horrible attempt at WIFOM

[ortolan]

prodded, scum are probably still the same but I will read up to date I guess

[ortolan]

Bogre if by any chance you're not going to shoot one of dos hacker sarag or almaster please just shoot me instead so I can frag the scum. I don't want the scum whittling away my credibility with their atrocious arguments so that I don't get the gun till the 3rd or 4th mislynch

[ortolan]

skirting the edge of "play to win" stuff. Don't, please.

I trust my own chance of hitting scum better than anyone else's. It is still playing to win.

[ortolan]

Are you claiming to be the best town player here? I highly doubt that you are.

I am claiming my scumlist is more accurate than anyone else's, and I trust it way better.

[ortolan]

yer

[ortolan]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_consensus_effect

[ortolan]

I will try a different tack. I trust my own methodology better than those of other people. I think they are going with the horrible "consensus" wagons when they should be going with the people acting like scum would act. I agree with you that Sarag is scum, btw.

[ortolan]

...didn't I tell you to shoot me already? Luckily Bogre actually seems to have a clue.

[ortolan]

bogre's not even gonna shoot me, he's gonna shoot the scum. Also I'm not an idiot to want the gun so I can frag the scum. Who wouldn't?

[ortolan]

Appeal to emotion is fine, as long as I can say after the game that I AtE the scum.

[ortolan]

stop trying to score points scummasterGM and ScummyHuck

[ortolan]

It doesn't lead to finding scum, I already found the scum. As I said, unless Bogre is gonna shoot one off my list today, please shoot me, so I can actually vig all the scum tomorrow instead of watching more horrible mislynches

[ortolan]

I guess you could call it a gambit

[ortolan]

you guys are terrible @ readz. just sayin'

[ortolan]

luckily I am not, so when I get shot by a bunch of #$343 I will still win the game

[ortolan]

Sarag I really like you for defending me. Such a shame you're scum

Just Shoot Me! so I can win the game

[ortolan]

Let me ask you a question. If you're town, what would you say you learned from the way the California game went?

Not much, mostly that some players are horribly overrated.

[ortolan]

let's frag someone. I vote Hacker. Or we could just go with the consensus Sarag.

[ortolan]

nacho, xyl, kiss and make up and just kill the people on my list plox. I promise they're all scum.

[ortolan]

let's wrap this game up ay

[ortolan]

Bogre - please listen to Ortolan and put him out of his misery. He hasn't done any scumhunting since the game began and it doesn't seem to be getting any better. After you get him out of the way, you can go after Howard or someone else that you prefer.

you're scum. how have I not done any scumhunting? I called out you and all your buddies day one. You're persisting in the OMGUS because your hands are tied.

I just looked at the first post and the scum only need to equal or exceed the town

minus the gunbearer

...

Good catch. A more impressive translation: two consecutive mislynches at this point means game over.

I hadn't noticed this. Here I was wondering why this setup was so town-biased. Ok definitely don't frag me, frag Hacker or Sarag pl0x.

[ortolan]

accusing me of not scumhunting is such horrible rubbish. I've had the same suspects since day one but seeing as I haven't had the chance to test any of them I cannot revise my reads- all that's happened is that someone I already knew was town, has been shot and flipped town. /me waits for Hacker's "OMG how did you KNOW he was town?????? Your word choice is scummy"

[ortolan]

QFT!

Also this thread needs more bogre.

No, this thread needs more you

dying

! Seriously, where the heck have you been, why aren't you scumhunting by the way?

fixed

[ortolan]

I don't mean to "not contribute", I already have my scum-reads- they came about through elaborate analysis at the beginning of the game, enough for me to be confident- particularly when none have been tested yet. I was vindicated when you flipped town, which I knew would happen. I also know Nachomamma8 will flip town- PLEASE DO NOT SHOOT HIM, I would much rather you shoot me. I just re-read him, and he confirmed what I already knew from his predecessor, that he was town. Look at the way he attacks pretty much everyone- I don't think he's defended or buddied to anyone yet. He attacks the people on his wagon for being scummy while also calling out lurkers (the two lurkers he called out are scum also).

Sarag is a much much much better kill. Look at how perfectly 587 sets you up to misvig Nacho, then for Nacho to successfully vig Sarag, then for us to assume the two of her buddies she named afterwards are town. Wowzor.

Please kill the people on my list. Please. They're all scum (Sarag, Hacker, DoS, Almaster). Do not kill Nacho. I guarantee he's town. If I am wrong about anyone it would be the last two people on that list. Xyl, you said you agreed with the 3 people in my list, won't you help me convince Bogre to shoot Sarag please.

[ortolan]

I'm pretty sure Howard isn't scum either (I think I got him mixed up thinking Nacho replaced him initially). What happened to Sarag, Xyl (although Hacker is equally good)?

[ortolan]

forcing town reads is far more likely to trap the scum in this setup

[ortolan]

as I said, I had the two townies mixed up

[ortolan]

I'm hoping we'll see some better play from ortolan today. You've had one of your scumlist confirmed as town, so it's time to reassess.

LOL. nice try.

[ortolan]

I would definitely kill Sarag over HackerHuck, when I read him in iso yesterday I couldn't help but think that *gasp* I might have been wrong about him.

[ortolan]

Nah...Sarag is so obviously scum. I'd rather shoot her. I'm not even 100% sure on Hacker anymore.

[ortolan]

Ortolan: Now that you have seen one person on your list flip town does it give you any pause as to the others on your list? Why/why not? Do you still find your scum hunting ability to be better than everyone else in this game?

Actually if anything it makes me think the scum are wifoming heavily (see: Sarag) and all the other people on my list may be accurate. I feel especially strongly about Sarag and Almaster (less so about Hacker). I actually dislike the way I feel Yos, in LYOL, seems to be leading you towards two people I think will be misvigs- Howard and Maemuki, yet retaining suspicions of Sarag and Almaster should it all go pear-shaped. If Yos were scum, and those players town, he would be leading you towards a likely scum victory but is retaining enough town-cred should you happen to shoot a scum today so that his web of deceit wouldn't unravel.

Xyl and Nacho are disgustingly obvious town (not that this is even relevant).

Basically you really need to kill Sarag today. Look at the people who are directing you away from her when she was all but a guaranteed vig yesterday. Yep, that's her scumteam, trying to seize victory before we've even got our bearings in the game by fragging one of them.

[ortolan]

Ort are you saying you feel Yos is scum now?

He could be. I certainly wouldn't kill him today either way.

I reread Almaster and still think he has a high chance of being scum. I would still shoot Sarag number 1 though...frankly I find her posts unconvincing. I might meta her...brb

[ortolan]

Why shouldn't she shoot me? Because I'm an active player, I try to keep my posts game-relevant, on topic and try to be clear about what's actually going on. As town, I will pay attention and make a good effort to scum hunt. As scum, I will leave a long paper trail.

My number one question is how you know that you will leave a long paper trail as scum.

[ortolan]

I think that was a good choice

[ortolan]

Now I need to work on convincing you to shoot Sarag next

[ortolan]

Shoot Sarag.
If Sarag is scum... shoot someone other than me, Yosarian2, or ortolan. Repeat until all scum are dead. This is a guaranteed win as long as the three players I named are town, and no gunbearer decides to screw us by shooting one of them anyways.

I see a potential flaw in this plan.

[ortolan]

kill Yos now please

[ortolan]

wait...Hacker has been attacking townies and defending scum all game. Plus he was on my original list the scum tried to discredit by appointing DoS as gunbearer.

[ortolan]

Hacker or Yos, I don't really care (Yos being shot and being town has obvious benefits, I know this argument was called scummy before but I don't care), Hacker definitely needs to die sometime so now's as good a time as any.

[ortolan]

btw I am waiting on Howard's reads. I will say that I didn't like his last post.

[ortolan]

You should shoot HowardRoark instead. I've made the case for that already.

This is a very good reason not to shoot HowardRoark.

My top suspect is Maemukei.

t.l.;dr - you should shoot Maemuki today.

I am believing an Sarag/AlmasterGM scumteam now. She looks like "Hey, just look! There are scummier people than my buddy *attackattackattack*"

These are very good reasons not to shoot Maemukei.

Combining my town/uncertain list with Yos's, I think the people who are left as good shots for today are Sarag and AlmasterGM.

This is a good reason not to shoot Xyl.

Xyl & Yos: They're our 2 most protown players right now; they're active, they present good logic, and they're aggressive. Xyl I'm less sure of, but he's being active in LyLo, aggressive, and unafraid, so... protown.

Maemuki: I don't have a good enough read on her. She's lurked into oblivion since her little spurt of activity in the beginning, and I really don't think we should shoot a lurker like her today.

Ort: Ort isn't afraid of going against the crowd, and he's very vocal with his opinions. He calls a lot of town reads, which would be trapping himself in a corner if he was scum. Finally, he wouldn't be stupid enough to attack DoS as strong as he did, then give him the gun.

This post has obviously been made by a pro-town player.

I reread Almaster and still think he has a high chance of being scum. I would still shoot Sarag number 1 though...frankly I find her posts unconvincing. I might meta her...brb

This is why you shouldn't shoot me.

I don't know why Xyl thinks Yos is town, he and Hacker are totally the odd ones out here. I'm about 95% sure they're the last two scum at this point.

[ortolan]

3)Who has been the most effective/least effecting in scumhunting?

Until AlmasterGM picks up the pace, he's still been as helpless as Zakeri. Most effective could be any of the active players: Xylthixlm, Slicey, ortolan to name a few. (*toot* Plus me with this Sarag find. *toot*)

4) Who is the most/least protown? Why are you protown? What have you done anti-town?

I find Sarag least pro-town because he is scum. Excluding him, it's AlmasterGM. DragonsofSummer comes in a close second, but from what little experience I have with him, this seems usual. Xylthixlm's advice has been pro-town. I am pro-town for finding that nugget. I've been less than stellar with my play from replacing through the end of the day.

HowardRoark is highly unlikely to be scum. Tunneling on him is terrible- you were doing it before and you're still doing it even after flips which come close to completely vindicating him.

[ortolan]

That's not an attack at all, it's a plea for a scumbuddy to become more active.

The scum can daytalk, he could have just said so there.

Plus, look at the tone of Howard's posts. When we were at lynch or lose, he was calm and unconcerned, now that town is about to win he seems worried and unhappy.

I don't think this is a very good tell.

I would like to see the links you can find though.

[ortolan]

btw on this point

So it appears that you think the scum are incapable of bussing - except for me.

Normally you can't necessarily tell too much about someone if they defended town vs defending scum, after you get the person in question's flip. However this is a unique situation- the scum were one mis"lynch" away from winning. Therefore there would be a bit of a temptation to put all their eggs in one basket and try and route town right there and then, by directing the vig to someone who was town. All my town reads pretty much agreed that Sarag and Almaster were scum. Hacker did not, and Yos said they were scum but he put them below two other people who I think are town on his list. This triggers very very strong alarm bells for me.

As a result of killing Sarag and Almaster town is in a much, much better position. You have to take into account how little scum would want this. As such Hacker and Yos are far and away the best targets. Howard is a horrible target, and he's been attacked by the flipped scum all game.

[ortolan]

this game's over. Kill HackerHuck who is obv-scum then shoot Yos, on the off-chance Yos is town he can go and kill HowardRoark, who he is "95% sure is scum".

[ortolan]

"your overconfidence is your weakness"
"your faith in your friends is yours"

[ortolan]

I don't think we should be hasty

[ortolan]

I might agree with Xyl on Yos now

[ortolan]

good question

[ortolan]

It's especally funny for you to act like my post was "OMGUS", when I've been saying for DAYS now that the scum are (Howard, Mae, Sarag, and Almaster). How can my post be OMGUS when I have been attacking you and your three scumbuddies for days before you ever attacked me?

Yos, while you may be a great player, I'm not sold that you could get all four scum right (unless they were listed in your role PM.) Which are you more likely to be wrong about - Howard or Mae - and whom would you replace that person with?

Well, I'm something like 95% I ever am in a mafia game convinced that Xyl is town. Nacho also looks pretty town to me.

(shrug) If I'm wrong about anyone, I could be wrong about Mae being scum. Just a few days ago a game ended and it turned where I was sure she was scum and I turned out to be wrong, so I'm apparently not that good at reading her.

Not sure who else is likely to be scum, though; like I said, from the way Ort defended Howard and attacked you, and called me scum just because I thought you were town and Howard was scum, I have to consider the possibility he could be scum with Howard. I don't really think so, though; it probably has more to do with that dangerous overconfidence he tends to have as town that I mentioned earlier in the game. Honestly, if we shot Howard and Mae and one of them flipped town, I really am not sure what I would do next.

I'd really like to see some more aggression here, without it all being forced by me.

I think I've been agressive. By this point in the game, I'm starting of running out of unique ways to say how much Howard is scummy scum scum who needs to get shot and die ASAP.

Yosarian2 would have to be doing a very very good impression of a townie as scum to make this post. You should probably shoot Howard but I will hopefully get around to a re-read soon to see if I can become extremely enthused about him being shot. I did notice I suspected him at the beginning of the game for something then I seemed to decree him town, that may have been a mistake.

[ortolan]

and I need to figure out if it's because he's getting lazy

I pretty much always get lazy halfway (or earlier) through games, due to unexpected busyness or just bad attention span.

[ortolan]

My concern here is that Yosarian2 is scum, either partnered with or fooling Xylthixm. The latter being more frightening because I haven't seen a good link to anyone else.
@Xylthixlm: In your experience with Yosarian2, how easily do you find his scum partners?

Howard is also doing a good impression of a townie. I should really take another look at Nacho.

[ortolan]

I am gunna read this game I pwomise

[ortolan]

Llama did Xyl ask you to replace him specifically?

just isoed Nacho, don't think you should shoot him/DGB

[ortolan]

Maemuki is actually a very difficult meta read, I just spent a while reading some games of hers I could find and had difficulty finding any distinct behavioural tells.

She was about neutral, but when I read Slicey at the beginning of the game his tunneling on Sarag sticks out. He seems convinced she is scum and basically never lets up, always keeping her in his "suspected players" and not revising his opinions on her. This makes me think he nominated her to be the specific scumbuddy he constantly attacks from the beginning of the game, alongside rite and Bogre (town). I also get the overall impression from Sarag ISO 32 that Mae might be a buddy.

It is looking most likely that it's Mae/Howard atm.

[ortolan]

DGB I had been thinking Xyl was town for a while now because I can see how his play here could be deemed similar to that in lynch all lurkers. I do know he won a scummy for his mafia performance in mind screw 3 but well...meh. I don't really recall having any good reason to doubt his towniness at any point in this game.

Also it's interesting to note that Vi had to finish off modding Xyl's Anime Bastard Chaos so presumably Xyl has had issues accessing the site or somesuch (which is strange because he still idles on irc in #mafia)

I'm still willing to hang on to my town read. I'm now feeling the love for the last two scum being Howard-Nacho/DGB

[ortolan]

ISOing Howard leads to some good links to Nacho:

[quote="Howard" (ISO 40)"]I think that seeing the result of a shot at Yosarian2 would solidify reads on HackerHuck (who he has been defending), Xylthixlm (where there has been a lot of support for each other), and Nachomamma8 (where there was more suspicion during the attacks on Xylthixlm and a town read after they stopped).[/quote]

@Yosarian2: A response to my post 765 please.

@Nachomamma8: That slip was all I needed for my solid scum read on Sarag.

Anyway I agree that Howard is scum now and should be shot. We can work out mae v.s. nacho afterwards.

[ortolan]

My top three have only slightly changed - Ort, Bogre, and Drake. Drake edged out over Rite mostly because rite had a replacement.

yer this looks bad for Drake/his successors for me seeing as I know I'm town.

So yer. It's Howard 'n' DGB

[ortolan]

it's LYOL now btw

[ortolan]

No I mean, if you're town, and now you have the gun, it's LYOL. I was just saying you probably shouldn't be to hasty.

[ortolan]

too*

[ortolan]

could Yos be scum with Mae?

[ortolan]

sorry to waste your time posting that response Yos, I was going under the assumption DGB was actually town. so yer shooting Howard seems like a good idea to me now.

[ortolan]

Howard

is he even gonna defend himself??

[ortolan]

frag HR so we can win

[ortolan]

I just opened this game thread and saw "HackerHuck, VT, shot etc...." and almost had a heart attack, because I got him mixed up with HR (who I wrongly thought had flpped town). HR clearly isn't putting much effort into defending himself because there's little point, so you should probably just go ahead.

[ortolan]

I really think you should kill him. If he turns out town we're gonna want to regroup before we get too complacent. Plus I wouldn't want you timing out like Bogre did.

[ortolan]

wee, thx. I'm pretty sure it is him judging from his apathy at defending himself.

[ortolan]

weeeeeee. Thanks for modding.

I think the setup is rather town-biased myself.

[ortolan]

the scum did have daytalk. I'd like to see the qt actually

[ortolan]

I assumed DGB was telling the truth because I thought it would be counterproductive as scum to pretend to have been shot as town; you might unwittingly cause town-tells from townies or even scum-tells from your own team.

[ortolan]

yer I had that re: you Yos, I started off making sure I didn't tunnel on you at all after California Trilogy. But later in the game my paranoia probably restarted.