890: Cults of Darkness and Shadow - Game over!

[Snow_Bunny]

/conform

The mod should get a back up mod for those days he will be unavailable... ¬_¬

[Snow_Bunny]

Thanks mod! And congratulations on your marriage!

[Snow_Bunny]

I don't think starting to throw Incantations randomly around is a good idea. Yes, we can move it around, but once you put it in game, it will stay in game.

FoS: Dis

[Snow_Bunny]

@Faraday: To tell you the truth, I thought your vote was random, and thus I wasn't going to say anything about it (well, other than the fact that you

voted

).

Chaco and Seacore buddying is noted. The idea of 2 lynches per day sounds good, as long as the lynchees are scummy enough to warrant it. Nothing like "ok, we found one scum, let's put there player C just because I have a bad vibe". No, nothing like that, please.

No lynching is bad. Period. However, RV in this game is even worse. If you're going to place your incantation in play, make it worthy.

[Snow_Bunny]

@Dis: Are you suggesting we should speedlynch? I don't like that. It's true that with less votes is easy for scum to control the lynches, but we shouldn't hurry. Look, two weeks (around the same time given in a normal game) would leave us to 7 incantations to lynch, and that sounds good (majority).

[Snow_Bunny]

It's not strawman, it's the conclusion I'm getting for his post. That's why I'm rather asking than attacking.

[Snow_Bunny]

My, too much to read. Even more than all of my other games combined.

Will read everything, and post something soon.

[Snow_Bunny]

Ok, some quick comments on what I've read:

Magua -> town. Few posts, but they are good so far. His vote on mipe is noted.
star -> neutral, leaning town. A few good reading in general, though there's something in this post I don't like. Maybe is telling Seacore what to do in case of suspicious.
chaco -> scummy. Putting the idea no-lynch for future days in the table; his appeal of shrugging off the buddying just don't make it to me.
Seacore -> scummy. Among others, discrediting budding; his long post tries to say things but in the end nothing. However, his comments on the incants in play seem rather townish.
Faraday -> neutral, leaning scummy; the whole vote with reason no stated at the beginning of the game is scummy. Though something tells me he's town.
mipe -> scummy; question to the mod about last words of the cultist just stroke me as scum (apart from his general lack of comment, but well, I can say much either)
DisCode -> neutral, leaning town. Gut tells me is town, but I'm not sure.
DS -> neutral, not enough to get a read; though I didn't like his reaction towards DisCode's request. Too aggressive.
Semi -> Neutral, leaning towards scummy. Didn't like his last big post, we differ in many things, and I find scummy many of those.
Data -> Neutral, not enough to get a read.

Well, I guess that's all for now.

Mipe is looking quite scummy now, gut + that odd question. So, for now

Incant: mipe

. I'd also be happy with a Seacore lynch.

[Snow_Bunny]

More mipe incantations, please.

[Snow_Bunny]

So, I was a bit bored, so I decided to make some analysis here (starting since post 180. Newer posts won't be analysed).

Chaco

-First posts he just agrees with everyone. Not much input on his own. Scummy++
-In ISO 4 he is open to the idea of a No Lynch, even suggests that we may need it. Unless in extreme rare events, NL is never good for town. Scummy++
-In ISO 6 tries now to escape from the pressure formed from the NL idea. I didn't like how he simply says that he never wanted one, just speculating.
-In ISO 7 he points that multilynching should be with absolute consensus. This can be read as good, but it can also be read as a way to escape from suspicious from a mislynch. Noted.
-In ISO 8 he parries off Seacore's buddying accusations by discrediting the tactic. The actual tactic is full of wifom, but the way he just try to get out of it is not good. Noted.
-He then says that he

allowed

the buddying to get more info about his alignment. First of all, I'm curious, how would you have done this? Second, I'm not much buying this. Just gut.
-In ISO 12, by your very own logic, you can as well be buddying Seacore to create such bonds that will make him look more guilty in case you flip scum. As you say, all talk about that is just a bunch of wifom.
-In ISO 13, you say that town has little to no reason to buddying. By your very own logic, then, why are you buddying if you are town? This makes me think you are actually scum trying to set up bonds, as you say you do. Scummy++.
-ISO 16 & 17 looks townish to me. Town++

Conclusion: 3 Scummy++; 1 Town++ -> Scummy.

Datadanne

-Four first posts are useless. The thing with him reading only one link is a null-tell to me. The uselessness is not, however. Scummy++
-ISO 4 is a post, again, without contain. A reasonless vote, some rudeness, and the promise of posting more (yeah right). Scummy++
-General lurking and not commitment to the game. Scummy++.


Conclusion: 3 Scummy++ -> Scummy/Antitown. Five posts, useless most of them, are not enough to warrant a scummy read. So, I'm leaning towards Anti-town. He must still be lynched soon, as he's a liability to town, but I won't surprise if he flips up town.

DeathSauce

-ISO 1 is an agressive post against Faraday for the motives behind a vote (if it was random or not). I don't like this, really. A vote so early in the game doesn't necessarily have to be random, and he overreacting over this seems odd. Noted.
-In ISO 2 gets a reaction, though he mentions no analysis over it.
-ISO 3 holds a vote with some reasons. Probably not the best reasons, but reasons in the end.
-Keeps arguing about the not-so-random vote. I still think this is, at best, a null-tell.
-Another vote in ISO 7 with weak reasons.
-ISO 8 holds more aggressive reaction from him. Too much aggressiveness just looks odd. I can even think of someone trying to distance himself from his buddies. Scummy++
-ISO 9 says that he gained insight from the game thanks to Seacore. And that make him townish in his eyes. I do not like this, actually. Explaining the mechanics and discussing the setup =/= townish in any mean.
-He brings an interesting point in ISO 11. Though, it can be seen as a way to relieve pressure on Seacore. Paired this with ISO 9 and we have something odd... Noted.

Conclusion: Scummy++ -> Not too much content here. Half of his posts are a fight against Faraday's vote, which I find a total waste. Also, I'm seeing a strange connection between him and Seacore.

DisCode

-Throws a random vote. I don't think it's a good idea, but it's not either a scumtell per se.
-No supports NL. Town++
-I like ISO 3. Seems townish to me. Town++
-I also like ISO 5. Town++
-The same feeling from his other posts. Town++

Conclusion: +3 Town++ -> Town. A very strong town reading coming from him. Good reasons, good attacks, good questions.

Faraday

-Reasonless vote just at the start. (Though he later admits it wasn't so reasonless. Still, he could have pointed that out the first time)
-I kinda like ISO 2. Not big town-tell, but I like it. Town++
-ISO 4 states he sees problems with the NL, but he doesn't mention them. Not good. If he sees a problem with a strategy it can end up hurting town, the best thing would be to say those problems. Scummy++
-Neutral feeling on ISO 8 & 11. I don't like reasonless vote, but I can see his point.
-Interesting enough, his posts lack quality after ISO 11. Some of them focus on the discussion with DS about the randomness of his first vote.
-ISO 25 returns to quality, though it's nothing to write home about.
-I like ISO 29. Even the points against me I'll concede. Town++

Conclusion-> 2 Town++, 1 Scummy++ -> Townish. There are things I don't like, like the lack of content in his middle posts, but in general, I'm getting a town vibe from him.

Well, after devoting one hour or more to this, I think I call it a night (for this game... -_-U). Tomorrow I'll post more about the rest of players.

[Snow_Bunny]

Ok, let's keep it up with my short analysis in ISO.

Magua

-ISO 0 seems like a townish post. Town++
-ISO 1 is another good post. However, I don't like the vote on mipe. A weak meta deciding the vote, I don't like. It can be seen as trying to pass the pressure from Data to mipe.
-ISO 3 is another worthy vote. Though, I'd like to know what he approves of SOG and SC. Town++

Conclusion: 2 Town++ -> Very few posts, but most of them good. Town feeling.

mipe

-ISO 2 starts the thing with the link in the sample role pms. A true waste, and as I said before, a null-tell at best.
-ISO 3 is without reasons or bases stated. Scummy++
-ISO 4 says reasons of the suspicious on Seacore and Faraday (though Faraday's are not real reasons but gut); he says nothing on Data, meaning that the "small thing" he pointed out in ISO 2 is now worthy. Also, the questions to the mod are rather odd. Scummy++
-ISO 5 holds a vote to the mod. A waste, if you ask me.
-I'm reading something on ISO 6. Seems like mipe is more focused on the size of the cults than in hunting them. Really scummy, and even the comment about "I wouldn't be suprised if there would be only 1 cult, or something like, 1 cult has 4 members and other has 1 member" makes me think he *may* be cultist, and he's the only member of that cult. If you pair up this with the question to the mod about if the town is informed when a cult disappears, it seems as if someone is worried town figures out his cult has gone when he dies. Scummy++
-In ISO 7 he incants Seacore, saying he's his top suspect. He gives no reason why he's his top suspect, though. Too opportunistic, if you ask me. In ISO 3 Data is his top suspect, now is Seacore. Scummy++
-ISO 8 doesn't give me a good vibe. He says his main suspects were Data, for lurking (though this is the first time he brings this point out); Seacore (for the reasons stated in ISO 4); and Faraday (because he makes him feel funny... ¬_¬ No, joke aside, because his getting a gut scum read on him). He then quickly disregards Faraday saying that he thinks Faraday plays like that. Hmm... Could it be scum partners? If either of them flips scum, I'll be looking towards this. Any roads, he now confuses me with his line of thoughts. Data is a lurkerscum, but there's not enough info, and he should be lynched today or tomorrow, and because of that Sea becomes his top suspect? Kind of lost there. Well, he keeps arguing about the number of the cultist for the rest of the post. In the end, I'm getting a bad feeling from this post. Scummy++
-ISO 9 is a big appeal to emotion, paired with a safecard of holding information for town. Noted.
-ISO 10 makes me think mipe is a role not stated in the sample pms. But, I won't go deeper in this as it'd be rolefishing. But this is noted.

Conclusion: 5 Scummy++ -> Really scummy. Mipe has focused on discussing the number of cultist instead of scumhunting. His reasons for his suspects (and the reasons why he disregards them as well) are not good enough.

Seacore

-ISO 1 starts out good. Town feeling from the first paragraphs. However, the commentary about the pro-town tells is not good, imo. Also, I find something else funny in that post. The question to the mod. The "Can you confirm that four are three cultists in each cult?". Why would he type "three" there? Seems like someone slipped here. Well, Seacore could have been thinking in his team only having three cultist but the role pm showing four, and he just slipped about it. This post has mixed feelings, and thus will remain just noted for now.
-ISO 3 is a post I don't like. The certainty he uses when talking about the scum actions and the way he disregards power roles are just not right. Scummy++
-ISO 5 keeps with the same tone of disregarding town-tells. Town-tells are the few tools town have to secure themselves. Be it two or three or even more scum teams, they are all scum in the end. A town-tell is just not scumhunting, is proving that you have the interest of town in your mind. Scum doesn't have that. Scummy++. Also, Seacore, FYI, chances are that on day 3 we won't have 12 votes on play.
-In ISO 9 he supports the multilynch idea. Good, except for one thing: he suggests it should be done daily ("unless one person really stands out as guiltier than others.") I don't like this. I support the idea of multilynch, but only if its worthy. Only if we have two top suspects, each one of them really scummy. I don't think lynching two persons per day will help town. It is true that lynch is the town only way of getting rid of scum, but we also need information to do this. More lynches on a day = less information for town. I really don't like this post. I read it as Seacore's using townies to find the other cultists. Scummy++
-ISO 10 contradicts himself. In ISO 9 he says "Even three is not a terrible idea as long as each of them has a reasonable scumminess about them." about multilynching. In ISO 10 he says "Agreed. 3 is very risky and should only be used when people have been confirmed/ultra suspicious (i.e. they last minute voted the day before)." And to sum to that, he buddies with Chaco. Scummy++
-ISO 11 has somewhat townie feelings. Town++
-ISO 14 tries to agree with me regarding the multilynching, and thus, changing his previous stance. It seems he tries to agree with many players. Not trying to raise suspicious? Noted
-I don't like the start of ISO 15. He says that it would be easy to get information from low-votes lynches. In the same way, it would be easier for scum to control such lynches (and this does not necessarily gives them off. If this would be the case, there wouldn't be games with 7 players... ¬_¬)
-In ISO 17 he asks for help about the buddying thing. I don't like this. He also tries a slight appeal to emotion with "I'm being bandwagoned just because I've stated my ideas." The vote on DisCode is meh.
-ISO 18: why do you think that sharing your point of view makes the other player trusthworthy? It seems as if you aren't finding Chaco suspicious because he shares your ideas.
-ISO 19 is a big post defending himself. Some good things, some wifom here and there. In the end, just a big defence, and more reasons to vote DisCode. Though I don't like how he assumes all of his attackers are scummy.
-I don't like, again, in ISO 21, the certainty he uses for the scum interests. Just too much certain of himself. Scummy++
-ISO 23 a small read on everyone. Again focuses more on his attackers, and it can be seen as omgus. This thoughts will be noted when you flip.
-His assumption of the scum setup is no good in ISO 26. He says he assume that because it's the worst case scenario (but really, it isn't.) Scummy++
-He tries yet once more to discredit the buddying in ISO 31. Noted.

Conclusion: 6 Scummy++; 1 Town++ -> Scummy. Seacore's trying to be transparent, and that's good, but I'm seeing too much agreement with other players, and the certainty of the scum talk is just strange. Really strange.

Ok, thanks to Seacore's long posts, I think I'm done for now. Have other games to read too. -_-U

[Snow_Bunny]

I'll keep up with my analysis. Hope this is the last one...

Btw, I'll answer all of your questions and comments later, after I finish this.

semioldguy

-In ISO 1 there are several points I don't agree, however, they look sincere enough (like not voting = fence sitting and having to back up suspicious with votes). There are some other points I dig (specially those referring Seacore). I like this post, unlike other I-will-catch-up posts this actually is good. Town++
-Mentions worse players than mipe, yet he doesn't say who.
-ISO 4 is another good posts. It actually makes the non-voting issues a nonsense, and I admit I was wrong about it (though in future days where there are less incantations, things change). Town++
-Following posts are just plain normal. Nothing to point up.
-I'm seeing the incantation in ISO 10 more like a pressure vote than anything else. However, this can be seen as a good opportunity to hop in the mipe's wagon. Noted.

Conclusion: 2 Town++ -> Town vibe. Though we don't agree in many points, SOG seems sincere enough with his posts.

SerialClergyman

-I don't like ISO 2. Seems like someone doesn't want to scumhunt and is just going for the easy way (which, incidentally, I don't think is such a safe way for town to go). Scummy++
-ISO 3 & 4 are good posts. They bring up the problems in Seacore's play, well explained and backed. Town++
-ISO 8 has a weak vote, imo. I don't get at all that scumtell he talks about.
-I don't like ISO 13. Trying to discredit mipe's wagon. It's true that it can be seen as an easy lynch due to his playstyle, but for the same matter his scummy points can't just be forgotten like that. Noted.

Conclusion: 1 Scummy++; 1 Town++ -> Neutral. I'm getting a neutral reading on SC. Some things are good, other look scummy. Neutral for now.

startransmission

-ISO 2: I don't like how he comes out and say the best strategy for scum, and seeing how he bases on this to suspect Seacore, I'm not liking that at all. The rest of the post is some opinions on the game. Neutral on this post, but noted the vote.
-Again, in ISO 3, I don't like him saying what's imperative for scum. Too much certainty when there should be none about that in a townie. I also don't like him answering Seacore's request of help about buddying. The rest of the post seems legit enough, so another neutral read.

Conclusion: Neutral read. Not too much to comment here. Few posts, at least the majority of them with content. The only scum vibes I'm getting from him are the certainty of the scum strategies. He also brought up some good points. So, for now, I'm leaving it as neutral.

[Snow_Bunny]

I'm actually being persuaded by other people's points in some cases. That's not just me agreeing, that's me entering into the discussion and finding out I didn't have the best idea, such as Semi's post with the numbers on posting and why random posts didn't actually hurt us. It was numbers I should have done myself, but I hadn't and when I saw them I was persuaded.

This doesn't change the fact that you have been a lot agreeing with others.

Maybe it's because I'm new at games on this site, but can somebody please give me a list of "town-tells" that are not "scum hunting signs".
Specificalyl snow-bunny, often when you give somebody town points you simply say "this seems townish", can you please explain why you "like" those posts.

Town-tells that are not scum-hunting signs are not that hard to find. I won't give you a list, but for example, when you feel a player posted something that is in the best interests of town, that's a town-tell (like in many posts I say "I like this"). Btw, call me paranoid, but this seems like a way of you to ask for help of how to blend in town. Scummy++.

Also, I don't think we could get a worse case scenario than 3 scum to a team with a power role on each team? Does anybody have a worse likely scenario (considering I was slammed pretty hard for my 4 to a team comment)

Do not ever outguess the mod. Really. Nothing prevents the mod from putting a scum team of 4 players each one of them a PR. Nothing.

I think it's far more likely, that we have two to each team, with one power role on one and one on the other. But that's just a guess. I think they are likely even teams.

This doesn't help now. Stop discussing about this and scumhunt.

Here's a good question actually: Who do you think are NOT on the same team. Either one scum, one town, or two different scum. (You don't need to guess which)

I don't have much so far, but I recall seeing a connection between you and DS.

Snow: Do you think data is town or scum atm? Asking for clarity as I'm not 100% sure from your post.

Scum at best, anti-town at worst. One way or another, a liability to town.

I'd like for you to explain the scum++ point against me, and why it's scummy. I really don't understand why you're calling that scummy.

You see a problem with a strategy we're discussing to use and you don't say which problems are those. That's not in the best interest of town.

---

For the multilynch, I say go for it. I'd like two of these three lynched: mipe, data and Seacore. mipe for his ubber scumminess, data for the reasons stated before (scummy/anti-town) and Seacore for scumminess (plus, I think we would gather some interesting information from a Seacore's lynch, specially that connection with DS, among others.)

Chaco is scummy, and I'd like to see him lynched as well, but I prefer the two of the three above.

[Snow_Bunny]

I don't buy that claim either.

We need a vote count to see how we are going to engineer that double lynch.

[Snow_Bunny]

Getting a dreamwalker claim on Data is just a waste, imo. If he turns out town, we have an useless confirmed townie, and if he turns out scum, well, we have just another reason to lynch him.

I also don't agree with semi.

@All: If you would have a second vote, who would you be voting now?

[Snow_Bunny]

@All: If you would have a second vote, who would you be voting now?

Snow_bunny

Reasons?

[Snow_Bunny]

I don't like startransmission's 228. Why are you in a hurry to lynch someone? This gave me a bad vibe.

[Snow_Bunny]

It's not holy when I know that atleast 5 non-holy persons are going to kill me.

So, your scum partners are on the wagon? Thanks for the info.

[Snow_Bunny]

I am against policy lynching. Policy lynches don't help the town. I will do what I can to keep them from happening (in this and any other game). Lynch someone because you think they are scummy, not because you don't like the way they play or because you don't think you can get a read from their play style.

Policy lynching =/= antitown lynching. One thing is saying "let's lynch player X because he is always antitown!" and another is saying "player Y is not helping town at all in this game. Let's lynch him."

Then, semi, what do you suggest we do with Data then? Force replacement?

[Snow_Bunny]

It seems we are not understanding each other. I don't want to policy lynch. I want to get rid from a liability to town. Do you really think he will be help to the town in the future? If so, why?

He can keep posting "willpostmoarl8er" all the game for all we know! And there's no rule against that.

I'm puzzled. Why do you want a liability to town to live so hard? We are not even wasting today's lynch! So, why?

[Snow_Bunny]

^So good I didn't even notice you weren't Percy the first time I read it. Good job ^_^

Did a reread during the night and I take back what I said about Magua being mipe's partner. Still think Snow_bunny is scummish.

I'm still waiting to hear such reasons of why you find me scummy. Your ISO shows no trial of that.

[Snow_Bunny]

Waiting for DS...

[Snow_Bunny]

In a way we're limited in information because mipe was so clearly scum. It's quite irritating.

I agree with this. But, this can't stop us from finding the remaining scums.

I think Chaco is town. I find the points that semi and dramonic are using against him are weak. Chaco has done well with pointing out why. And I also see a buddying between Semi and Dramonic.

Incant: Dramonic

Why Dramonic and not SOG?

And what makes you think Chaco is town?

[Snow_Bunny]

Mod: I'm having serious connection problems, so I'm a bit of LA for now. I'll try to fix this as soon as possible.

[Snow_Bunny]

That's a little weak, to be honest. One of the better scum tells I've found in multi-scum setups is selective scumhunting, so going after the group that is already weakened for no particular reason is not particularly the best.

Having said that, I am tryign to work out if I'd prefer to aim at Darkness and eliminate a kill, or aim for shadow and keep them trying to cross kill.

Funny thing, you're doing exactly the same scum tell you yourself are talking about.

The lack of night kill last night from Shadow means in all probability we have a confirmed town somewhere. If we managed to find and lynch the last Darkness member, we'd have 9 members going into night. That means, assuming no more protections, we'd have 8 members with which we'd have to find 2 scum. This isn't a slam dunk, but it's not a bad scenario, especially with one confirmed town in the mix not to mention potential blocks or defends from other power roles.

The first time I read this, I thought "what an interesting analysis." But then, I started to think. Why does the lack of Shadow night kill mean we have a confirmed town? Darkness can have a guardian. That means that there's no confirmed town somewhere. But if you believe that, it's because you know that Shadow didn't target Darkness on the night, but a pro-town player. And thus, not having killed him/her, you now believe the town has a guardian role. Also, using your own logic, your selective hunting makes you look scummier. The rest of your post just follow that same logic.

I believe you just slipped.

Incant: SerialClergyman

*is still catching up*

[Snow_Bunny]

To that end, I thought your point about Seacore was excellent, but unlike you I'm going to vote discode because he wasn't on the mipe wagon, was on the Seacore wagon and was scummy throughout D1.

Vote DisCode

Ya know it might help if you said why he was scummy day 1. It also might be useful if you'd mentioned Discode day 1,

at all

. Ctrl + F reveals no mention of Discode in your day 1 posts at all. You had seacore down as scummy, who was in direct opposition to most of DisCode's points, so what gives here?

Oh, this brings yet another interesting point against SC. Scummt++

[Snow_Bunny]

I think Chaco is town. I find the points that semi and dramonic are using against him are weak. Chaco has done well with pointing out why. And I also see a buddying between Semi and Dramonic.

Incant: Dramonic

Why Dramonic and not SOG?

And what makes you think Chaco is town?

Answer the bolded question, please.

You are saying that you have no read on him. You labeled him as not scummy to you. That sounds like a read to me. The ambiguity lies in your trying to cover up that lie.

"Not scummy" isn't a read. It is a lack of one. (that's what the "not" is for, it means that some) To be specific, it is a lack of a scummy read. "Not scummy" is a subset of "no read."

The definition of not having a read is that I don't find a person to be scummy/town/third-party/anything! Not having a read means that I don't find a player to be any of those things. I don't understand what is so difficult to comprehend about this. Saying that someone is not scummy to me and that I have no read on that person are not conflicting things.

Chaco, do you ever find people to be scummy that you have no read on?

I agree with Chaco on this one. You are contradicting yourself. Saying someone is "not scummy" is a read. Saying "I have no read" is a total different matter.

[Snow_Bunny]

That's a little weak, to be honest. One of the better scum tells I've found in multi-scum setups is selective scumhunting, so going after the group that is already weakened for no particular reason is not particularly the best.

Having said that, I am tryign to work out if I'd prefer to aim at Darkness and eliminate a kill, or aim for shadow and keep them trying to cross kill.

Funny thing, you're doing exactly the same scum tell you yourself are talking about.

The lack of night kill last night from Shadow means in all probability we have a confirmed town somewhere. If we managed to find and lynch the last Darkness member, we'd have 9 members going into night. That means, assuming no more protections, we'd have 8 members with which we'd have to find 2 scum. This isn't a slam dunk, but it's not a bad scenario, especially with one confirmed town in the mix not to mention potential blocks or defends from other power roles.

The first time I read this, I thought "what an interesting analysis." But then, I started to think. Why does the lack of Shadow night kill mean we have a confirmed town? Darkness can have a guardian. That means that there's no confirmed town somewhere. But if you believe that, it's because you know that Shadow didn't target Darkness on the night, but a pro-town player. And thus, not having killed him/her, you now believe the town has a guardian role. Also, using your own logic, your selective hunting makes you look scummier. The rest of your post just follow that same logic.

I believe you just slipped.

Incant: SerialClergyman

*is still catching up*

I got the whole afternoon thinking about this, and I think i got it wrong. Yes, you know there's a town confirmed pr because you know Darkness didn't protect anyone of their own. And thus, you assume the PR comes from town who fended off Shadow's kill. That's it.

[Snow_Bunny]

Snow you said you misread what SC posted, yet you're still incanting him, why?

What I got wrong was the conclusion of his statement. He assumes there's a town PR due to the lack of Shadow. Why would he assume this guardian is town aligned and not Darkness aligned? He must know then that Darkness has no guardian in their lines, and thus the protection from the Shadow's kill came from somewhere else, this is, from town.

In conclucion, I believe SC slipped and he's Darkness.

[Snow_Bunny]

In conclusion, you slipped, scum.

Moar SC incants, please.

[Snow_Bunny]

Snow Bunny - explain what the slip was and what faction I am please.

You slipped in assuring there was a town PR. Your faction is Darkness.

[Snow_Bunny]

This is the line of reasoning: There wasn't a Shadow kill last night. You immediately assume there's a town PR. The only way to know this is to be sure that Darkness didn't protected anyone at all. It's obvious Shadow wouldn't protect their own kill (if they can at all). So, if neither Shadow nor Darkness stopped that kill, what's left? A town PR.

A town player wouldn't be aware of the Darkness' night actions, and thus wouldn't be able to assume there's a town PR around (and, if you consider that there's another possibility about the lack of Shadow's kill: Shadow tried to kill Seacore as well, but Darkness hit first). And thus, you have inside information from Darkness. And thus, you are Darkness.

[Snow_Bunny]

That's based all off of assumption Snow. You're ruling out that a town protective role exists in that line of thinking.

I'm not ruling out anything. I'm saying that as a town I have no way of knowing there's a town PR. But he does.

[Snow_Bunny]

Snow - I ruled out a Dark-protected kill because there's NO REASON FOR DARKNESS TO PROTECT ANYONE.

How about DARKNESS PROTECTED ONE OF THEIR OWN? What makes you think that Shadow can't target Darkness? What makes you think Darkness didn't protect anyone?

[Snow_Bunny]

That's based all off of assumption Snow. You're ruling out that a town protective role exists in that line of thinking.

I'm not ruling out anything. I'm saying that as a town I have no way of knowing there's a town PR. But he does.

This is a semi open set up, I'm pretty sure you know there are Town PRs. That was a dumb comment.

Pretty sure? I'm sorry, but if you actually read the first post of the game, you'll see there's no mention whatsoever about town having PRs. All it says that some players (regardless of alignment) will posses special abilities. So, again, why should I be sure there are town PRs?

I'm not following Snow Bunny's logic regarding SC and his alignment. Out of this debate I'm agreeing with SC. It does seem pretty unlikely that the scum teams would have three members with PRs. It is far more likely that each team consists of two with one PR.

Never outguess the mod, nor base your assumptions in the setup if you don't know it. And, btw, I'm not saying anywhere that the Darkness team has a PR. For all I know, SC could be Darkness' last member. The point is not Darkness having a PR or not. The point is SC

knowing

Darkness didn't protect anyone during past night.

[Snow_Bunny]

Forgive me if I'm rude, but, are you unable to understand written language? The PRs come to players regardless of alignment, and the mod never stated that it is sure that town get at least one PR. I never said there are no PRs in this game. Unlike you, I did read (and understood) the rules of the game.

[Snow_Bunny]

Never outguess the mod, nor base your assumptions in the setup if you don't know it. And, btw, I'm not saying anywhere that the Darkness team has a PR. For all I know, SC could be Darkness' last member. The point is not Darkness having a PR or not. The point is SC

knowing

Darkness didn't protect anyone during past night.

So you're saying that because there was only one NK a townie must've protected a Darkness/Shadow/Town... as a scum faction would obviously not prevent their own NK. And SC saying that it must be a town PR that blocked the kill reveals that he knows that Darkness did not protect anyone? And only Darkness could know that? I'm not trying to be dense here, but I want to make sure this is actually your point.

Quite, but not exactly. I don't know for sure why there was only one NK, and that's the point. A townie can't be sure of that. How could he? (Unless, of course, such townie happens to be the guardian that blocked the kill, if it was blocked at all by a townie). Other than that, you get my point straight.

[Snow_Bunny]

Bah, how can you miss such a scumslip like that!? What do you want to recognize one? SC saying "Hey guys, I'm Darkness scum, lynch me"?

I am not selective scum hunting as SOG proposes. I am trying to lynch scum.

[Snow_Bunny]

Again, mod, connection issues here, so I'm kind of LA for now.

[Snow_Bunny]

Snow could you explain one more time how it's a slip on SC's part. Assume I'm mentally incompetent and explain it slowly and clearly for me please.

*sigh*

Here we go again. There wasn't a Shadow NK. SC assumes for truth there's a town PR for that. A town can't assume that. Why? Because town can't possibly know who Shadow targeted last night (or if they targeted someone at all), neither know if the kill was stopped by a town guardian or a Darkness guardian. For all town knows, it can be either of any of these three possibilities: Shadow didn't submit a NK; a town guardian blocked the kill; a Darkness guardian blocked the kill. If go with logic, the first one is overruled, but that still leaves town clueless regarding the author of the protection. Unlike some of you who try to protect SC, it isn't logical to think that such author is town. Why would it be logical? And trying to outguess the mod is a no-no. Saying so is only a further proof of inside knowledge, that btw, only scum has. Well, returning to the main point, SC assumes for sure the guardian is town. Logic dictates that for him to assume that, he must overrule the other option, which is Darkness having a town PR. And, the only way he can overrule that is by knowing that Darkness doesn't have a guardian. The only way of him knowing this is that he is Darkness.

Look, other people have come up with different points to attack SC, and I acknowledge them and agree with them, but the main point of my attack is this slip.

And Heilo last vote seems quite opportunistic. Just jump in a wagon without solid reasons. Not good.

@Heilo: Regarding my plan, it's simple, if you call that a plan: Catch scum.

[Snow_Bunny]

People, it can't be that hard. SC is scum. Town lynches scum. Votes must be made in order for town to lynch scum.

So, more SC votes, please.

[Snow_Bunny]

Oops, it seems I missed the last posts of the previous page.

I'll go with the claim for now. It hasn't been CC (though I can't see how a claim like that can be CC in this game), and if no one claims to have protected SOG, then we'll have something. Hmm... I can see a SC/SOG Shadow team. I had the impression SOG was backing up SC regardless the slip.

[Snow_Bunny]

Does SC = me?

Well... Do you see another player who can fit in that abbreviation?

[Snow_Bunny]

In conclucion, I believe SC slipped and he's Darkness.

Hmm... I can see a SC/SOG Shadow team. I had the impression SOG was backing up SC regardless the slip.

I was just checking to make sure.

Oh, then, I think my impression was wrong.

Btw, people saying that my argument is crap because of the unlikeness of Darkness team having three members and a PR, SC's slip doesn't necessarily imply they have a guardian on their own. It can also mean they don't have one, and thus why SC knows the guardian is town.

[Snow_Bunny]

This day is dragging way to much. Let's lynch SC, or SOG.

Mod: Is the votecount correctly? Does SOG have doublevote?

[Snow_Bunny]

I'm here, I'm just limited in what I can say. I've got Snow Bunny attacking me for a slip that means I must be Darkness which is rubbish. She also decides that when someone else looks like being likely Shadow then I must be Shadow with them. When this is pointed out, she just says oops and goes back to her original proposition.

Trying to discredit me won't change the fact that you slipped.

In my opinion, the scum team are almost certainly balanced. I don't think a cop is nearly as powerful as a guardian for a scum team. I DO believe that Darkness has a guardian. Therefore, I think shadow eitherh as 3 goons or the same setup. I don't see why SOG would attract a protection - in fact, he almost definitely attracted an investigation.

I think it is EXTREMELY UNLIKELY that a town guardian protected him and much more likely that a scum guardian did.

If you believe Darkness has a guardian, why you rule out such guardian was the one who protected Shadow's NK?

You know, after reading some of your old posts, you have shown some certainty about Darkness' actions. Like this one.

I have a strong feeling you are Darkness scum, and I wouldn't be surprised if you are Darkness guardian (and maybe you're the one who protected SOG, who could be your partner). Yeah, yeah, yeah, rant all you want about the setup not being fair or balanced, I don't care about that.

Also, as you pointed out yourself, selective scumhunting is a good scumtell in these kind of games. And you are intent in doing so (even if it's at your own faction, maybe trying to create some sort of wifom situation for later).

So yeah, I'm quite happy with your lynch.

[Snow_Bunny]

In conclusion, let's lynch SC.

[Snow_Bunny]

SOG's is kinda weak, based on the word of a single player. Yes, I'm not discrediting the claim, but I am not believing it right away. In the other hand, we have SC, who's a great lynch for today.

[Snow_Bunny]

SOG lynch was retarded, really. And I'm calling it a scum gambit. Gotta reread the last few pages, though.

[Snow_Bunny]

For now:

Vote: Startransmission

And,

mod: Kinda of VLA around here. Should return on Tuesday.

[Snow_Bunny]

Ok, my points against star.

-Early on he post a read on players. Two out of the four in the town read have turned up Darkness. Three out of the five in the scum read are town (two flips and myself).
-He had mipe as town, then yet when mipe's under pressure says "His actions have been dodgy and a little bizarre for most of the day". Interesting change of heart.
-He has Faraday as town, yet he then says he has "Faraday on the fence", and some other points against him. Star says he agrees with Faraday, but since when agreeing with someone grants the read of town?
-Jumps to the mipe wagon when the town consensus is to lynch him. Opportunistic, and busing. Also noted the rush to lynch him.
-Supports SC with his slip.
-First "I've been fairly neutral on her (Snow_Bunny) this game, so I went back and ISO'd her. The majority of her posts strike me as genuine town." Then "I'm not saying snowbunny is town. After reading back through on iso I found her posts to be... not scummy."
-Claims town dreamwalker, having targeted someone he had a town read. That makes no sense. Also, notice another small slip here. The third option of his no-result on SOG is "Semi is obviously in the Shadow cult. His partner protected him, and the kill they chose was blocked by an astute town guardian. " I wonder why SOG is obviously Shadow instead of just obviously scum. I mean, he could have been Darkness. But again, another certainty about the alignment of another player. Wow, two scum slips in a single game. Easy as pie.
-Bases his accusations on SOG on probabilities!
-Doesn't acknowledge SC's wagon. Well, I guess it would be dumb to bus both of your partners.
-Assumes that because there wasn't a Darkness NK, the scum teams are in pairs. You see, I can see you pulling here a gambit. No NKing to make the town believe they have wiped Darkness out and erase all tracks of your previous actions. Well done, but not enough.
-As expected from a fakeclaim (yes, I believe he's fakeclaiming), innocent result on investigation today.
-Conveniently delays the claim of the result.
-Also, albeit it's small and wifomly, a town cop surviving the night? Hmm...

So, here's the thing: Star claimed dreamwalker in order to lynch a townie and save his partner. He bussed mipe. He buddied with SC. The inconstancy on his reads. Also, he slipped! Do I need to say more? Star is Darkness. Yes, whine all you want about a three scum with a PR team is broken and all, but until the game ends and we see the setup we can't do anything about it. I prefer to lynch scum when I find them.

So, please, more star incantations.

[Snow_Bunny]

Snow, quickly. Why is using probabillites a scum-tell? Why wouldn't he survive the night? The other scum faction would have no way of knowing if there was a Guardian or not.

Probabilities tell you nothing. It is highly unlikely you get struck by a lighting, yet every year people die that way. Also, using probabilities when you don't know all the facts is wrong. You can't say "it's highly unlikely that twins are born" when you have only analysed the birth information of a single city and not countrywide. It's the same here. You can't talk about probabilities unless you have full insight of the setup. Saying "it's highly unlikely that a town guardian, a town dreamwalker and the Shadows all targeted SOG" it's a fallacy. First of all, the probability has nothing to do with alignment. And second, it happens. In a game I recently finished (TTGL mafia, IIRC), everyone and their mom targeted UK during N1. Trying to use probabilities as facts and good bases is twisting the truth. And, remember me who are the ones who need to do that in order to win.

Snow do you think he's completely faking or that he's a shadow/darkness dreamwalker? I could see the scum teams getting different power roles, but I don't really see them as being > 2 at this moment in time. Bear in mind if they are > 2 we're almost fucking definitely in Lylo.

I think he's faking. But, truth be told, that doesn't matter. He's scum, and that's all that matters.

Hmm I'm going to have to think here a little bit on the set-up analysis, I found stark's claim odd but I definitely trusted it as I had no reason not to, I found his reasoning flawed but not scummy, really.

I don't know if town guardian + nilla is enough to combat a scum team of 2/3 w/ a guardian versus another scum team of maybe 2/3? it seems unlikely to me. I think I've reviewed/designed enough set-ups to know what seems balanced and I know Percy is a competent moderator.

*sigh* Do you know exactly what roles town got? How can you be so sure that town doesn't have 2 guardians? 3? A dreamwalker? You can't talk about balance until the setup is known.

I think basically the chances of him being scum despite the odd play are fairly slim at the moment knowing what we do.

So, you are acknowledging my case and his scumminess, but you aren't going to vote on him based on probabilities!?

*sigh*

To all you whinies that like to theorize on the setup instead of scumhunting (I'm talking to you, dramonic), 7 towns with 2 ~ 4 PR/ 3 Darkness with 1 PR / 2 Shadows with 2 PR. Is it too unbalanced?

Hmm... Makes me think something... That certainty of yours about balance... Dramonic, is it that you have knowledge about the Shadow's setup that you find it unbalancing for Darkness to have 3 members and a PR?

[Snow_Bunny]

Come on guys, I bet you can feel it too. Star is scum. Let's lynch him.

[Snow_Bunny]

Faraday, have you heard the word "gambit"?

It's more than possible that the last Darkness member (I'm 99.9% sure there's a last member, named star) decided to forego the kill in order to appear dead to everyone.

[Snow_Bunny]

@Faraday: It's not that I don't think Star can't be Shadow. It's that his early D1 play shows a connection with Darkness.

Well, I also have another idea, and I want you to weigh in. Let's star survive another day. If he isn't NK, then we lynch him tomorrow after he says another "result". Scum can't risk to have a cop out there, and if he survives two nights in a row then there's something fishy there. If he's scum, then we lynched scum and we can work out from his investigation claims. If he's town, then we have confirmed results.

To be honest, I rather lynch him today, but sometimes you have to take some risk in order to catch scum.

[Snow_Bunny]

Let's hammer. DS brought good points in 699.

Incant: Helio

[Snow_Bunny]

I was thinking... We can try to kill all of us in a single blow, you know. That would end in a town win.

Also, don't vote yet.

Waiting for Star's results.

[Snow_Bunny]

Well, yes, that. I'm well aware of the problem, but for scum to tactical use that they need to be here exactly a minute before deadline. And if they fail, they're automatically outed.

It's a risky play, but not impossible.

[Snow_Bunny]

Quickly people, post a list of your suspicious in your next post. Make it short.

[Snow_Bunny]

Also, say if you are up or against the idea of mass suicide (a simple yes or no will suffice.)

[Snow_Bunny]

Dram, please answer the question. So start.

[Snow_Bunny]

Well, it seems it falls down between start being legit, and Chaco or Dram. Hmm...

My choices are start or dram.

We are supposedly on mylo, right? If we assume two Shadow members left (if there's 1 it wouldn't be a team but a SK, if there's 3 then town already lost) then we must lynch scum or we'll lost. However, there's another option. Actually, there were two options left, one of them being a no-lynch. With a no-lynch we would have be in a better position, imo. (Which, btw, gives Start scummy points, as he voted fast, maybe trying to prevent this). But as there's already a vote on play, we can't no-lynch now. :/

Then, the other option is putting up a double lynch. Dram and Chaco. Let's face it, scum can easily manipulate this, but given that we are (probably) 3 vs 2 in the edge of losing, scum can manipulate it without much problem. In fact, as soon as it comes down to three-incantations-to-lynch, scum can easily win already thanks to start's vote (unless, of course, start is scum).

Nah, that won't work, scratch the part about the double lynches. By the time that's possible scum can already win without us screwing things.

To be honest, my gut tells me start is scum. But, my logic dictates that the setup, as the flips have shown, would be kind of unbalanced for town without another PR.

@Faraday: Care to elaborate why are you less sure of Start than yesterday?

[Snow_Bunny]

Well, it seems it falls down between start being legit, and Chaco or Dram. Hmm...

There are more options than this, well at least from your point of view. You didn't even consider I was scum here, that's very odd. Also obviously it could be start + someone else too if he's pretending to have an innocent.

Of course there are more options. I'm not talking about the team as whole, but as what to do today. Chaco and dram were the top choices in the survey, and start being legit is the other main point. That's why I mentioned it.

However, there's another option. Actually, there were two options left, one of them being a no-lynch. With a no-lynch we would have be in a better position, imo. (Which, btw, gives Start scummy points, as he voted fast, maybe trying to prevent this). But as there's already a vote on play, we can't no-lynch now. :/

No lynch = mafia kill + force NL/double lynch and they win, no?

No because... No, wait, you're right. I missed something. Yes, you're right. We need to lynch good or die.

Snow what exactly was your mass suicide strategy, how did you see it working?

When I first proposed, it had one purpose: giving town a good chance of winning, either by mass suicide. Then, I realized it simply won't work, due to scum easily manipulating it. When I asked it the second time, it was more of a taunt. Scum could easily agree with it and manipulate the results, and thus I thought any one supporting it would be scummy. It seems my strategy failed.

[Snow_Bunny]

Scratch that, I missed the last night's kill. I thought it would end in 1 vs 1 in the end, but it doesn't.

[Snow_Bunny]

Ok, let's put all my money on this one.

Incant: Dram

[Snow_Bunny]

Honestly, who do you think most likely as scum? A claimed cop (who has survived quite a few nights, but that's wifom), or the active lurker that almost everybody think is scum?

Though I've been suspicious of him, I can't deny the fact that seeing how the flips have turned, it's more likely that town has a cop than not.

[Snow_Bunny]

Mod: I'm moving to a new house, and thus I'm LA until new advice. I'll at least try to keep up.

[Snow_Bunny]

Well played from all factions (well, Darkness did make some mistakes).

Great game.