Mini 886 - Popcorn Mafia - Game over!


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Post Post #175 (ISO) » Wed Dec 02, 2009 5:58 pm

Post by Xylthixlm »

DraketheFake wrote:I'll amend: correct play as a
suspected
townie. This game rests more squarely on the decision-making/scum-hunting abilities of the individual rather than the group. Since the penalty for being incorrectly suspected isn't death - and since survival instinct won't kick in - the only person coming under suspicion who should hedge at the prospect of being shot this early is a scum player. Yes, a townie under early suspicion in the interests of the town playing a perfect game might try desperately to avoid the gun, but the unique mechanics of the game make it so that weaseling out from under the gun should basically be a heavy scum tell.
1) DraketheFake is completely wrong here.
2) DraketheFake is probably scum here.
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Post Post #176 (ISO) » Wed Dec 02, 2009 6:01 pm

Post by Yosarian2 »

DraketheFake wrote:I'll amend: correct play as a
suspected
townie.
No, that's still wrong. The correct play of a suspected townie is to defend yourself and do your best to convince the gunbarer that you are town and shouldn't be shot. Every time a townie gets shot, we get closer to losing.
This game rests more squarely on the decision-making/scum-hunting abilities of the individual rather than the group. Since the penalty for being incorrectly suspected isn't death - and since survival instinct won't kick in - the only person coming under suspicion who should hedge at the prospect of being shot this early is a scum player.
As Rite correctly pointed out, survival is irrelevent if you're playing to win. The key isn't survival, the key is avoiding mislynches from happening.
Yes, a townie under early suspicion in the interests of the town playing a perfect game might try desperately to avoid the gun, but the unique mechanics of the game make it so that weaseling out from under the gun should basically be a heavy scum tell.
What? Every townie should be trying to avoid getting shot; how the heck would that be a scum tell?
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie
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Post Post #177 (ISO) » Wed Dec 02, 2009 6:03 pm

Post by DraketheFake »

1. So you think that with a 7/11 chance of hitting town a town player should act nervous and defensive if the gun is pointed their way?
2. I'd love to hear how 1 leads to 2, though I understand it isn't really your style so far to give any kind of reasoning.
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Post Post #178 (ISO) » Wed Dec 02, 2009 6:13 pm

Post by Xylthixlm »

DraketheFake wrote:1. So you think that with a 7/11 chance of hitting town a town player should act nervous and defensive if the gun is pointed their way?
Town players should try to avoid getting shot. Acting nervous and defensive is
not
likely to prevent you from getting shot.
DraketheFake wrote:2. I'd love to hear how 1 leads to 2, though I understand it isn't really your style so far to give any kind of reasoning.
If you're looking at the game from the perspective of how a town player should act, the flaw in your reasoning is blatant and obvious. If you're looking at the game from the perspective of how a scum player should act, it's extremely subtle. I conclude that you are looking at the game from the perspective of how a scum player should act. This makes you highly likely to be scum. Q.E.D.
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Post Post #179 (ISO) » Wed Dec 02, 2009 7:28 pm

Post by rite »

Vala Mal Doran wrote:
rite wrote:Checking in because I've been prodded. Sorry I've been busy, new job.

Honestly, I don't have much new to add. Xyl's list pretty much corresponds to my "suspicious" list,
though I wouldn't go as far to say that I'm confident that all or the majority of them are scum.


Bogre's still my number one scum guess, Vala, I want to make sure that's clear.
This entire post strikes me as playing it too safe, particularly the bolded part. Let's take the scumlist of a respected MSer and agree with it while simultaneously saying "but I could be wrong, lol". If you're town, you really don't need to cover yourself with a disclaimer like that. If you're scum, it's a good thing to point back at later with a, "don't blame me that they all flipped town, I said I wasn't sure." I also think Bogre is more likely to be an easy scapegoat rather than actually scum, but that's just how he came across to me.

Maybe I'm just making a mountain out of a molehill, but rite seems like one of the better candidates to me atm. (Yeah, you heard me, I actually gave my opinion on someone.)
I understand now how it seemed, but I just wanted to check in quickly, note that I was still on Xyl's side, but that I didn't quite share his rabidness. I didn't see it as covering myself as much as letting you know my opinions, in case you were keeping a tally.

I will say that if I were scum (which I'm not), I don't think it would be wise to use a "hedging my bets" strategy in this particular situation. Unless I start to get as zealous as Xyl, he's the guy who people are going to pounce on if those guys get shot and all turn up town. I didn't really imagine that that particular relatively no-content post would get dragged up in the future, either way. Just wanted to let you know where I stood (and I do still stand by what I said).

On an unrelated note,
mod
I'm out of town on business until Monday, and my internet access will be sporadic if existent. I hope to check in at least a few times, especially because it seems like I might be on the chopping block or close to it*, but I can't promise anything.

*and yes, for the record, everything I've said previously about motivation stands. I want to defend myself from the chopping block because I don't want a townie to die, not because I've got a survival instinct.

also, drake clearly doesn't understand the strategy we talked about and confirmed pages ago, but I don't think that makes him scum.
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Post Post #180 (ISO) » Wed Dec 02, 2009 10:05 pm

Post by Vala Mal Doran »

Thank you for the clarifications, rite and Drake.

Drake, while I dislike your overly defensive demeanour, I suppose I can answer a few things.

- I am not particularly suspicious of Vaya, but nor is he on my townlist. After a short investigation, however, it does at least appear that he is not particularly wordy in any of his games.

- If I do not outright list who my suspicions are, I have more leverage over anyone I might feel the need to pressure. Am I questioning a player because I think they are scum, or just because I want an elaboration on something? Would I actually shoot player Q if he or she did not provide a satisfactory answer? It's something I'd rather not have anyone know right now.
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Post Post #181 (ISO) » Thu Dec 03, 2009 2:25 am

Post by Sarag »

Hey, still here. I will need to catch up. Sorry, things have been quite busy but I will back in good form very shortly.
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Post Post #182 (ISO) » Thu Dec 03, 2009 12:01 pm

Post by Zakeri »

Drake wrote:It occurs to me that correct play as a townie is to encourage being shot,
lol, no.
Drake wrote:I'll amend: correct play as a suspected townie.
lol, no. Again.

Correct play as town is to find scum and have the gunbearer shoot them instead.
Drake wrote:Zakeria
I know the avatar confuses people, and I don't mind people mistaking me for a girl, but this is one step too far.

I think Drake shouldn't skip over parts of the thread.
I'll pretend it's Ortolan wrote:it was something which he went out of his way to say, which has no meaning.
What makes you think it was "Out of his way" to say something like this?

Let me put it this way: How would you imagine he would have said what he said if he were town as oppose to if he were scum? Do you believe that there is a significant enough chance that he would have said "The gunbearer" instead of "We" if he were town? Enough to call him out as scum for it?
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Post Post #183 (ISO) » Thu Dec 03, 2009 12:12 pm

Post by DragonsofSummer »

Xylthixlm wrote:
DraketheFake wrote:1. So you think that with a 7/11 chance of hitting town a town player should act nervous and defensive if the gun is pointed their way?
Town players should try to avoid getting shot. Acting nervous and defensive is
not
likely to prevent you from getting shot.
DraketheFake wrote:2. I'd love to hear how 1 leads to 2, though I understand it isn't really your style so far to give any kind of reasoning.
If you're looking at the game from the perspective of how a town player should act, the flaw in your reasoning is blatant and obvious. If you're looking at the game from the perspective of how a scum player should act, it's extremely subtle. I conclude that you are looking at the game from the perspective of how a scum player should act. This makes you highly likely to be scum. Q.E.D.
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Post Post #184 (ISO) » Thu Dec 03, 2009 4:34 pm

Post by Yosarian2 »

Xylthixlm wrote: 2) DraketheFake is probably scum here.
Yeah, I'd tend to agree with that. He dosn't feel right.
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie
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Post Post #185 (ISO) » Thu Dec 03, 2009 4:57 pm

Post by Bogre »

DraketheFake wrote:
It occurs to me that correct play as a townie is to encourage being shot, but that the way to avoid being shot is not to try and avoid being shot. Which is a bit of a mindfuck, but the last thing a scum wants is to be shot: it's a huge momentum swing, etc. Townies, on the other hand, should want the gun, or at least not be averse to it. Bogre's "don't shoot me I'm town" attitude makes even less sense in this light, especially in regards to his appeal to Vala's life.
Okay...your first statement is good-ish. This is what I've been saying (though it apparantly didn't get through well) the entire time. You shouldn't be -encouraging- being shot, that's pretty stupid. Just not FEARFUL of it, and checking your own actions because of a desire -not- to appear scummy.

The second isn't so much. Townies shouldn't be overly desireful of the gun, they should just not be afraid of getting shot and getting it.

Yet- here's the kicker. I feel awfully like you're echoing my sentiments (though you've not really got the right jist of what I'm saying), because they are town, while trying to say I am opposed to them.

Secondly- You're bending before the gunbearer. Trying to get back under the radar? You're right- weaseling out from under the gun is a scum tell. And that's what you're doing.

I'll reiterate, since it's came back into discussion:
Townies should prioritize hunting scum first and worry about getting shot second. To this end, figuring out who is the most evasive and tries to squeak away from town suspicion is probably scum. This means that townies prioritizing hunting scum and not becoming horridly concerned with making themselves look good and not scummy won't confuse the gunbearer as to who's vacillating.

And naturally, since the obvious scum play to avoid the above is to be aggressive, find the weakly aggressive players who piggyback on the others.

E.G. Rite.
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Post Post #186 (ISO) » Thu Dec 03, 2009 11:16 pm

Post by ortolan »

Zakeri (182) wrote:I know the avatar confuses people, and I don't mind people mistaking me for a girl, but this is one step too far.
You should see how pissed off ZazieR got when I repeatedly got him mixed up with you :P
Zakeri (182) wrote:What makes you think it was "Out of his way" to say something like this?

Let me put it this way: How would you imagine he would have said what he said if he were town as oppose to if he were scum? Do you believe that there is a significant enough chance that he would have said "The gunbearer" instead of "We" if he were town? Enough to call him out as scum for it?
I'll give you the benefit of the doubt, and say that you're missing the whole point. What he said didn't need to be said. He was considering (pretending to consider IMO) whether one could shoot oneself if one were the gunbearer. Why the hell would one consider that? That's like saying haha guys do you reckon it might be fun to shoot oneself if one were a pro-town vig? haha yer didn't think so. It was just a pointless diversion, and I can't see any reason for bringing it up, unless perhaps one wanted to imply "well I
could
shoot myself, because I
could
become a gunbearer, because I
am
town. Do you understand where my attack is coming from now? There was no benefit to what he was saying information-wise, the only possible motivation I can attribute to saying that is the implication that he is town. Ergo it's scummy.
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Post Post #187 (ISO) » Thu Dec 03, 2009 11:55 pm

Post by Yosarian2 »

ortolan wrote: I'll give you the benefit of the doubt, and say that you're missing the whole point. What he said didn't need to be said. He was considering (pretending to consider IMO) whether one could shoot oneself if one were the gunbearer. Why the hell would one consider that?
Because he was specifically asked by the gunbearer "would you shoot yourself if you were the gunbearer?". In trying to answer that odd question, wondering if the gunbearer actually can shoot himself or not seems fairly normal to me.
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie
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Post Post #188 (ISO) » Fri Dec 04, 2009 12:20 am

Post by ortolan »

DoS (41) wrote:A quick reactionary question? Do we know for sure that we are unable to shoot ourselves anyway? It isn't stated that we can't, and that would be one hell of a blow to the town IMO (A day with no lynch except worse because of how this game works).
The correct answer to the original question was "uh, no, that's stupid". He went far too far with his reply.

Vala: what did you hope to achieve by asking the question, and do you think DoS' response was scummy?
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Post Post #189 (ISO) » Fri Dec 04, 2009 2:40 am

Post by Vaya »

Mod, Requesting Replacement
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Post Post #190 (ISO) » Fri Dec 04, 2009 7:34 am

Post by DragonsofSummer »

Why do you feel I went to far? She asked me to reason out why I would or would not, so I gave them.
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Post Post #191 (ISO) » Fri Dec 04, 2009 12:18 pm

Post by Yosarian2 »

ortolan wrote:
DoS (41) wrote:A quick reactionary question? Do we know for sure that we are unable to shoot ourselves anyway? It isn't stated that we can't, and that would be one hell of a blow to the town IMO (A day with no lynch except worse because of how this game works).
The correct answer to the original question was "uh, no, that's stupid". He went far too far with his reply.

Vala: what did you hope to achieve by asking the question, and do you think DoS' response was scummy?
Ortolan, I'm curious; why are you questioning the confirmed innocent gunbearer? Giving her advice or suggesting what she should be doing is fine, I have no problem with that, but that dosn't seem like what you're trying to do here.
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie
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Post Post #192 (ISO) » Fri Dec 04, 2009 12:37 pm

Post by ortolan »

I want to know what the intention of your question was, and whether she thinks the response was scummy. I'm not interrogating her, I knows she's town, I just want to see in detail what she thinks of the response and how it matches to responses she might have expected.
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Post Post #193 (ISO) » Fri Dec 04, 2009 1:04 pm

Post by Xylthixlm »

Ortolan, what's your opinion on drakethefake?
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Post Post #194 (ISO) » Fri Dec 04, 2009 2:37 pm

Post by Yosarian2 »

ortolan wrote:I want to know what the intention of your question was, and whether she thinks the response was scummy. I'm not interrogating her, I knows she's town, I just want to see in detail what she thinks of the response and how it matches to responses she might have expected.
That's the thing, though. The fact that you're trying to figure out what the gunbearer is thinking isn't really a pro-town thing to do; it's more like what a scum might do when trying to manipulate the gunbearer, or when trying to decide if they need to bus their scumbuddy or not. A pro-town person, knowing the gunbearer is pro-town, I would think would be more willing to let the gunbearer keep their cards close to their chest if that's what they choose to do.
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie
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Post Post #195 (ISO) » Fri Dec 04, 2009 2:43 pm

Post by ortolan »

Yos (194) wrote:I would think would be more willing to let the gunbearer keep their cards close to their chest if that's what they choose to do.
How do you know that's what she's chosen to do? I know that was her approach from the beginning, I don't think it's necessarily optimal play to be doing it now. If she announces who she thinks she's going to kill; and then we all give feedback on it, that seems like it will just generate even more information, which is a good thing.

I also just want to know what her reasoning was out of my own curiosity and for my own purposes, I don't have in mind whether people will interpret it as trying to "manipulate" the gun-bearer.

I also want to know how the opinions of a confirmed town player compare to my own, because that is a good way of calibrating whether the reactions I might get from other players are town or scummy.
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Post Post #196 (ISO) » Fri Dec 04, 2009 2:57 pm

Post by Bogre »

ortolan wrote: I also want to know how the opinions of a confirmed town player compare to my own, because that is a good way of calibrating whether the reactions I might get from other players are town or scummy.
That is scummy.
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Post Post #197 (ISO) » Fri Dec 04, 2009 4:26 pm

Post by ortolan »

good for you, I don't care. I'm tryina catch scum, not appeal to how people (illogically) think a townie should act, which is what I'd do if I was actually scum.
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Post Post #198 (ISO) » Fri Dec 04, 2009 8:06 pm

Post by Vala Mal Doran »

ortolan wrote:Vala: what did you hope to achieve by asking the question, and do you think DoS' response was scummy?
Tbh, I was just asking the first thing that came to mind for everyone as a discussion booster. I do not really have a read either way regarding DoS' response; with an obviously idiotic question like that (and Bogre's) I am more interested in how people respond to the person's answer than the answer itself.

That said, it was unexpectedly in-depth. I'd like to see DoS post more content so I can get more of a feel for whether he's always that wordy or not.

I also think Ort has a point about getting more info from announcing who I am leaning toward shooting atm. Therefore:

As things stand now, I will likely be shooting Drake or rite.
Take that with the necessary grain of salt; I could just be fishing for reactions, after all. ;)
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Post Post #199 (ISO) » Fri Dec 04, 2009 8:31 pm

Post by Xylthixlm »

Of those two I would definitely shoot Drake, myself.
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