Mini 886 - Popcorn Mafia - Game over!

[rewq455]

Just replaced. Will post over the weekend.

[rewq455]

Can someone please post the basic case against Drake? I have read over the last three pages, and all I see is a case against his inactivity. I was planning on reading the full thread today, but real life caught up with me.

[rewq455]

I will do a few of these through the next few hours.

Page 1- The idea about not acting scummy is a good one. No scum tells on this page. I'm not sure if I should answer the question or not, so I will. I like to play the cop role the best, because it allows me to keep myself from leading attacks on town members.

Page 2-

@Vala

Unless you want to give me the gun, you shouldn't shoot me.

I think that this is a scum tell by his avoiding of the true question, but it is only a minor tell and could easily just be not looking at why the question was asked.

Sorry, scratch that. I already find rite, Zakeri, Drake, and DragonsofSummer scummy.

I also think that Ortolans not reasoning why he feels these players are scummy is scum tell. On this page, he is not pressured to explain, so I can't say anything about the reactions to it.

Page 3-
Bogre appears to be over reacting to requests to answer the question, as well as taking small things from Rites posts and saying he is scum because of it. I think that his trying to shift, not points away from him, but the attention is very scummy.

So far, Bogre seems like the most scummy person in the game, but not enough for a lynch (shooting).

[rewq455]

Can someone please post the basic case against Drake? I have read over the last three pages, and all I see is a case against his inactivity. I was planning on reading the full thread today, but real life caught up with me.

Worry about who appears scummy to you before worrying about the case against Drake.

Agreed.

I would also recommend that you shoot someone you actually find scummy before targeting someone who hasn't posted a lot of content. Lurkers can get replaced, while scum should just be shot.

The reason I asked is that Drake, who is now me, is very close to being shot. I think it is a good idea to know why I may be shot.

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I don't have much to add except for the fact that I don't really buy into the whole "I know it was scummy, but I did it on purpose, so it's not a tell" Scene.

I don't think my answer was scummy. And I am hardly backtracking- the luxury of this game is that I have the freedom to act pretty dynamically to see how people bend or prickle in response. I mean, no one can cause my death except myself, so its really moot on what anyone else thinks of -me-. Naturally I don't want to cause a mishot, but what I am hoping is that, as I said, the gunbearer will find a better target through my scumhunting.

Bogre just appears to be digging his hole deeper with this post in saying that he doesn't lose if he, a supposed townie gets lynched. If any townies get lynched, especially in this game because of the win condition for scum, the full town team gets hurt.

Exactly.

What anyone thinks of Bogre might not kill Bogre, but it will certainly kill Vala Mal Doran, a confirmed townie. By recklessly disregarding Vala Mal Doran's life, Bogre is playing squarely against the town's best interests.

Great point.

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I don't have much to add except for the fact that I don't really buy into the whole "I know it was scummy, but I did it on purpose, so it's not a tell" Scene.

I don't think my answer was scummy. And I am hardly backtracking- the luxury of this game is that I have the freedom to act pretty dynamically to see how people bend or prickle in response. I mean, no one can cause my death except myself, so its really moot on what anyone else thinks of -me-. Naturally I don't want to cause a mishot, but what I am hoping is that, as I said, the gunbearer will find a better target through my scumhunting.

Bogre just appears to be digging his hole deeper with this post.

rite has the consistent defensive and self-explanatory tone which I associate with newb-scum. Of course, he's clearly in no way a newb but it's been ages since he's played properly. I think he's inexperienced with the game recently and thus this tell becomes valid again. Also post 26 gives me a vibe of going out of his way to be unbiased in his self-assessment.

rite wrote:
I can tell you that in the past I've been prodded for lurking, pretty much equally when I'm scum or when I'm town. Basically, while I may be one of the town members most likely to lurk, I don't think that would tell you anything about my role, unfortunately.


Town players don't want to give information like this so that they can be evaluated "fairly", they want to convince others that they're town. It looks like he is going out of his way to appear "honest" rather than acting how a townie actually would- trying to convince people that they're town.

This could be seen as noob-town also though.

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Here is something I forgot to post in the last post about page 4.

If someone acts anti-town as scum why wouldn't they act anti-town as town?

WTF.
If that is not scummy, then what is.

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Page 5

On the contrary, I'm a little concerned that there is too much focus on Bogre, despite my hand in it. I think it's a real risk that lurker scum could be kicking back, enjoying the show at this point. Bogre has had this much bad attention because he wasn't very good at defending himself. I'm clearly not reluctant to defend myself from attacks that have actual substance - see the majority of my last post.

But how do you tell the difference between a town player that can't defend, and a scum player that can't defend?

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So far, Bogre seems like the most scummy person in the game, but not enough for a lynch (shooting).

Uhhh, what is this? You should be pushing for my lynch if you think I am that scummy, not hardcore waffling and trying to appear involved but really being soft.

What you have done is essentially hop on the 'easy' sentiment, i.e. that of people who have disliked my cavalier actions earlier, and said 'Bogre is scummy'.

@Yos: This is what I was talking about with Hackerhuck. It's a boon, actually, that its kind of easy to pick out people going for easy arguments to make it look like they're playing.

That was page 5 of 12 (I think.) I want to read everything before I say I want you shot.

[rewq455]

Scum: Bogre, Sarag, ortolan, DraketheFake

Almost agree. I don't think ort is scum, at least not yet.

What about now?

Do you honestly think ort would defend all his scumbuddies?

So, your argument is that Ort is defending Borgre, so you don't think they're scum together? That seems completely backwards to me; it's basically the bad kind of WIFOM. In reality, scum do defend each other all the time.

In this game, scum do not have a night kill. That advantage is gone, so the scum need to stick together.

[rewq455]

Scum: Bogre, Sarag, ortolan, DraketheFake

Almost agree. I don't think ort is scum, at least not yet.

What about now?

Do you honestly think ort would defend all his scumbuddies?

So, your argument is that Ort is defending Borgre, so you don't think they're scum together? That seems completely backwards to me; it's basically the bad kind of WIFOM. In reality, scum do defend each other all the time.

No, it's that he's defending Bogre, Sarag and Drake, all three who I think have a chance to be scum. If some of them end up being town, then yes, I think there's a chance ort is scum.

I am seeing Ort playing as a very protective town member, instead of a poor scummy member. He seems to be protecting to many people though. I think that there is a good chance that Bogre is scum and that Ort is protecting him wrongly. Also, I agree that he seems to be a good enough player that if he were scum, he would not defend all of his scum buddies.

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I just iso read Xyl again, he's playing pretty much exactly like he did in LAL, ergo he's very likely to be town. That doesn't mean his scumlist doesn't suck though.

Some ones actions in one game do not completely reflect there actions in another though.

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Checking in because I've been prodded. Sorry I've been busy, new job.

Honestly, I don't have much new to add. Xyl's list pretty much corresponds to my "suspicious" list, though I wouldn't go as far to say that I'm confident that all or the majority of them are scum.

Bogre's still my number one scum guess, Vala, I want to make sure that's clear.

Latching onto a seemingly aggressive town player's scum list for lack of any actual content to add? Check. Further irony of echoing the sentiments of a player who hasn't reasoned his own suspicions? Check.

It occurs to me that correct play as a townie is to encourage being shot, but that the way to avoid being shot is not to try and avoid being shot. Which is a bit of a mindfuck, but the last thing a scum wants is to be shot: it's a huge momentum swing, etc. Townies, on the other hand, should want the gun, or at least not be averse to it. Bogre's "don't shoot me I'm town" attitude makes even less sense in this light, especially in regards to his appeal to Vala's life.

Of course, the other way to hypothetically avoid being shot is to lurk. But it doesn't seem like a prudent strategy to do so here (somebody already brought up LAL), since shooting a random lurker is even less risky than it normally is - there's no night to reckon with. I'm yammering away and most of this comes down to WIFOM, I suppose.

Vala, your suspicion of Vaya I presume comes from his complete lack of posting so far. What about Zakeria? Is there any reason to keep your suspicions so close to the chest? Or was that even a conscious decision?

Yeah.... I admit that that was a pretty stupid post and a way to look active without having to even do a read over.

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Secondly- You're bending before the gunbearer. Trying to get back under the radar? You're right- weaseling out from under the gun is a scum tell. And that's what you're doing.

So a townie should let him self be shot?

This means that townies prioritizing hunting scum and not becoming horridly concerned with making themselves look good and not scummy won't confuse the gunbearer as to who's vacillating.

They want to look not scummy. As I said before, the death of a townie hurts the full team.

[rewq455]

Scum: Bogre, Sarag, ortolan, DraketheFake

Still happy about this list. Sarag has the potential to remove himself if he starts actually playing. The other three had better hope that someone else does something really really scummy, because otherwise they'll be my top suspects for a while...

I have no scum tells on Sarag... I am pretty sure none were previously stated either.

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between Drake and Rite however, I can't really decide. They both have almost equal amounts of "trying-to-look-like-they're-helping-without-actually-doing-so", with the large difference to me being that Drake is slightly more unpleasant in attitude. between the two of them, it's likely there isn't a wrong answer.

Handy probability trick: The question "Who is more likely to be scum, A or B?" always has the same answer as the question "Is it more likely that A is scum without B, or that B is scum without A?" If you can't figure out an answer to the first, try asking the second.

I know this is off of what I should be commenting on, but good strategy. I will use it in the future.

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Bogre’s my second, but I think he's a bad target if we're wrong. He might do a decent job at finding scum as the shooter, but he'd need to take his sights off of me and Xyl before I'd feel really comfortable risking that. It's not so much that I don't think he's really scummy, it's that being wrong about Bogre would be like killing two townies.

Stop right there. Thinking this way is opening yourself up to manipulation by the scum. Don't.

That is why we should be careful about who we shoot though. If we shoot someone who is obviously a poor scum hunter, they are then given the opportunity to accedentally shoot town.

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oh wait...I was confused...HackerHuck replaced rite?

wow that's really, really, really really, really, really obv-scum right there. Please kill him. Seriously. He's scum.

That was a quick change. You had little on both HH and rite. Why does the replacement of an inactive player change anything?

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Out of the main few suspicions listed so far, I only think Sarag, slicey, or rite/Hacker would do okay as gunbearers if they are town. Of those people I am currently most suspicious of Sarag, so he may end up being the shot for the day. I'd like more people to weigh in, though.

So all the scum have to do to avoid getting shot is be vocal about a bunch of totally wrong suspicions?

Seriously, you are going down a very bad path here. Stop thinking about who would be a good gunbearer. Only consider who you think is scum.

If the person is scum, it doesn't matter how good of a gunbearer they would be. You are then still the bearer.

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Are you now thinking that Bogre is scum? Weren't you of the opinion that Bogre is town?

I thought he was null, then I thought he was scum, now I'm thinking he's town because of your concern about being shot by him.

Sarag or Hacker would be great picks imho

So Bogre must be town b/c you think HH must be scum?
Yep..... a scum member would NEVER launch an offense against another scum member.

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Are you now thinking that Bogre is scum? Weren't you of the opinion that Bogre is town?

I thought he was null, then I thought he was scum, now I'm thinking he's town because of your concern about being shot by him.

Sarag or Hacker would be great picks imho

So Bogre must be town b/c you think HH must be scum?
Yep..... a scum member would NEVER launch an offense against another scum member.

Really poor logic dude.

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It's still bad play, dipping into a test sample of one pool for something as fickle as meta.

Not at all. I've seen people try to draw meta from 10 different games and because they're n00b @ mafia the meta they have derived is crap and useless anyway. Quality, not quantity. If you work out behaviour that people genuinely have difficulty changing, then it's going to be effective regardless of where it's drawn from (bear in mind I don't even remember who I apparently meta'ed at this point). Noobs are still gonna read 10 different games and say "omg, Zakeri, in 9/10 of your town games your average post length is 3 lines long, in your scum game your average post length was 5 lines long. You have one 6-line post in this game

Vote: Zakeri

"

Slicey: I don't think Xyl is scum. Merely wrong.

So you are doing this based off of post length? Also I noticed that you said that Zakeri was on your scum list, even before you posted anything against him. Also you have brought up posts against how he posts.... looking scummier each page. At this point, even scummier than Bogre.

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well, I am done then. Here is my list
1. ortolan
2. bogre

there is no one else I really could see as scum at this point. If I had to pick another though, it would be xylthixlm, just due to how aggressive he is being, but from what I have heard, that is the norm for him.

[rewq455]

If I had to pick another though, it would be xylthixlm, just due to how aggressive he is being

So, you think townies should be non-aggressive?

No, I made that vote off of what I saw as over agression. From what I have seen in games, that is either a good scum hunter, or a scum member.

[rewq455]

Foolproof plan for winning:

Shoot ortolan, Sarag, and Bogre in any order. All 3 of them come up scum, so Vala keeps the gun. Shoot rewq, and if he's not scum, he shoots HowardRoark (or vice versa). Town wins.

That is the kind of agression I found a little scummy. This could potentially kill 4 townies. I will definitely kill one.

[rewq455]

Foolproof plan for winning:

Shoot ortolan, Sarag, and Bogre in any order. All 3 of them come up scum, so Vala keeps the gun. Shoot rewq, and if he's not scum, he shoots HowardRoark (or vice versa). Town wins.

That is the kind of agression I found a little scummy. This could potentially kill 4 townies. I will definitely kill one.

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Sorry, IDK why it posted more than once.
*I know that Bogre is going to try to use this against me, so I will say it now.

This could potentially kill 4 townies. I will definitely kill one.

Should be: This could potentially kill 4 townies. It will definitely kill one.

Foolproof plan for winning:

Shoot ortolan, Sarag, and Bogre in any order. All 3 of them come up scum, so Vala keeps the gun. Shoot rewq, and if he's not scum, he shoots HowardRoark (or vice versa). Town wins.

That is the kind of agression I found a little scummy. This could potentially kill 4 townies. I will definitely kill one.

It can't possibly kill more than one townie.

What if one or more of the others are town, and then after shot, the gunman dies. Then, if I am shot by a person following this plan, they die .

[rewq455]

BTW, did anyone ever replace Vaya?

[rewq455]

HowardRoark did.

Thanks.

Foolproof plan for winning:

Shoot ortolan, Sarag, and Bogre in any order. All 3 of them come up scum, so Vala keeps the gun. Shoot rewq, and if he's not scum, he shoots HowardRoark (or vice versa). Town wins.

That is the kind of agression I found a little scummy. This could potentially kill 4 townies. I will definitely kill one.

It can't possibly kill more than one townie.

What if one or more of the others are town, and then after shot, the gunman dies. Then, if I am shot by a person following this plan, they die .

But part of the plan is that the first three are all scum, so obviously if one of them somehow turned out to be town, they couldn't follow the plan and would have to stop.

good point. my bad.

[rewq455]

Xylthixlm starts the Bogre wagon based on his reaction to the "don't act scummy" post. Xylthixlm continues to push the Bogre is scum mantra while giving himself an "out" a few times (51 & 81). There's also the fact that he was willing to have Vala Mal Doran die in order for Bogre to die sooner (84). Overall, Xylthixlm doesn't look good in hindsight.

Good point.... this kills 2 townies. Townies we can't afford to lose.... if there are as many townies as mafia, we lose..... Bogre be carefull about your your shot.

[rewq455]

Xylthixlm starts the Bogre wagon based on his reaction to the "don't act scummy" post. Xylthixlm continues to push the Bogre is scum mantra while giving himself an "out" a few times (51 & 81). There's also the fact that he was willing to have Vala Mal Doran die in order for Bogre to die sooner (84). Overall, Xylthixlm doesn't look good in hindsight.

Good point.... this kills 2 townies. Townies we can't afford to lose.... if there are as many townies as mafia, we lose..... Bogre be carefull about your your shot.

Nice way of implying that you think he should shoot me without actually saying it.

Actually, I would prefer Ort. getting shot.

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I am telling you, just kill Hacker, DoS, Sarag and AlmasterGM

One misfire won't stop us getting a scummy, our scummy can still be saved

Why AlmasterGM?

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@ Bogre

Please re-write why you think Rite and his replacement are scummy.

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Oh, goodie, announcements, I can't wait!

*rubs his hands in eagerness*

DoS: What about Almaster's comments strike you as scummy?

You should be telling people what to do and holding stuff back, not HR.

[rewq455]

I think Ort. is scum. If I had to pick one person to shoot right now, it would be him.

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Xyl is most protown, Ort or Almaster least protown. I am protown because thats what my role pm said. I have lurked more than I should which is anti-town

Apparently all of our PMs said town. Anyone's say anything different?

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Bogre if by any chance you're not going to shoot one of dos hacker sarag or almaster please just shoot me instead so I can frag the scum.

Thats not a very townie thing to say. We still get a dead townie from it.

[rewq455]

rewq455 wrote:
Quote:

Bogre if by any chance you're not going to shoot one of dos hacker sarag or almaster please just shoot me instead so I can frag the scum.


Thats not a very townie thing to say. We still get a dead townie from it.
What makes you think we'll get a dead townie from it?

Assuming ort is town, which i doubt, if he gets shot Bogre dies. Then the scum is one step closer to winning. In looking back though, its not really a scummy thing to say either because then a scum member dies. All around, I guess it was just a stupid thing to say.

I trust my own chance of hitting scum better than anyone else's. It is still playing to win.

Are you claiming to be the best town player here? I highly doubt that you are.

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I agree with you that Sarag is scum, btw.

Way to change the topic

[rewq455]

I'm having computer problems so I won't be able to really post for a while.

Mod: request replacement.