Mini 886 - Popcorn Mafia - Game over!

rewq455
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Post Post #375  (ISO)  » Tue Dec 15, 2009 8:17 pm

Bogre wrote:HowardRoark did.

Thanks.

Xylthixlm wrote:
rewq455 wrote:
Xylthixlm wrote:
rewq455 wrote:
Xylthixlm wrote:Foolproof plan for winning:

Shoot ortolan, Sarag, and Bogre in any order. All 3 of them come up scum, so Vala keeps the gun. Shoot rewq, and if he's not scum, he shoots HowardRoark (or vice versa). Town wins.

That is the kind of agression I found a little scummy. This could potentially kill 4 townies. I will definitely kill one.

It can't possibly kill more than one townie.


What if one or more of the others are town, and then after shot, the gunman dies. Then, if I am shot by a person following this plan, they die :wink:.

But part of the plan is that the first three are all scum, so obviously if one of them somehow turned out to be town, they couldn't follow the plan and would have to stop.

good point. my bad.
The man who smiles when things go wrong has thought of someone to blame it on.
Scum who smiles when scum is lynched just led the wagon.

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Yosarian2
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Post Post #376  (ISO)  » Tue Dec 15, 2009 8:33 pm

Xylthixlm wrote:But part of the plan is that the first three are all scum, so obviously if one of them somehow turned out to be town, they couldn't follow the plan and would have to stop.


FTR, it seems clear to me that it would be better to kill people one at a time and then re-evaluate everything as we start to get alignment info.
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie

Elmo
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Post Post #377  (ISO)  » Tue Dec 15, 2009 8:38 pm

Zakeri has requested replacement.

The deadline is Wednesday 16th December, 22:00 UTC, which is 20 hours and 21 minutes from this post.
Succinctness is pro-town.

Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford

Bogre
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Post Post #378  (ISO)  » Tue Dec 15, 2009 8:57 pm

@Sarag:
Explain to me this: You think I'm tunneling on Hackerhuck, who you think is the most scummy.

Do you think I am trying to bus him? Or do you keep me up there because it is the safe and popular thing to do?

Rewq's heavy speculation on what would happen if Vala rapidfires is odd. I think the chances of her rapidfiring are very, very slim, and she'll obviously stop if she hits a townie. I agree that there isn't much of a reason to rapidfire, but honestly, did anyone else take Xyl's suggestion seriously? It seems rewq did and wants to look really worried about it.
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Elmo
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Post Post #379  (ISO)  » Tue Dec 15, 2009 9:02 pm

AlmasterGM replaces Zakeri. Thanks!
Succinctness is pro-town.

Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford

AlmasterGM
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Post Post #380  (ISO)  » Tue Dec 15, 2009 9:13 pm

Greetings ... from space!

I'm here to add inject some awesome into this game. But first, I have to sit down for a nice read of it. BRB.

P.S. - It seems ya'll like to play extra close to the deadline. :P

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Post Post #381  (ISO)  » Tue Dec 15, 2009 10:43 pm

Alright then, just finished a first read. Since there's less than 24 hours left today, here's an abridged version of my reads:

Town
Vala Mal Doran - Gunbearer
Yosarian2
Xylthixlm
Slicey

Neutral read

DragonsofSummer
HackerHuck (Replaced rite on Day 1)
rewq455

Scum

Sarag
112 - Pure defense
114 - kicks offense.
LARGE dissapearance.
216 - very wish washy. no warrants.
228 - mmm, more kicking of offense.
289 - always seems to be catching up

ortolan
138 - establishes his own meta.
188 - probes the pro town player
265 - sure DTF is town based on crap reasons
more stuff

Bogre
for obvious reasons

HowardRoarak
I can't point to a specific post that seems scummy, but overall he doesn't seem to be doing anything useful. His posts are fairly sporadic and they don't seem to say much. Just a gut feeling I suppose.

Plus there's obviously many other things that have been said about these people that I agree with. I just didn't bother to quote every single one for redundancy.

tl;dr. - Scumlist is 1) Sarag 2) Borge 3) ortolan 4) HR

Vala Mal Doran
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Post Post #382  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 16, 2009 12:43 am

Big Ol' Post O' Scumlists, Etc. (Feel free to ignore this for now, but I wanted it all in one place easily accessible for day two so we all know who wanted who dead. Even if I shoot wrong, I at least know I've saved people looking for connections a lot of time.)

Drake - "[re: rite's 154] Latching onto a seemingly aggressive town player's scum list for lack of any actual content to add? Check. Further irony of echoing the sentiments of a player who hasn't reasoned his own suspicions? Check." -166 (replaced by) Rewq - "1. ortolan 2. bogre. There is no one else I really could see as scum at this point. If I had to pick another though, it would be xylthixlm, just due to how aggressive he is being, but from what I have heard, that is the norm for him." - 345

Sarag - "I have a mild town read on rite, and a scummy read on DraketheFake. I'd be much more comfortable shooting Drake at this point." -216 "My scumlist is now: HackerHuck, DraketheFake, Bogre, in that order. DragonsofSummer beats out Yosarian2 for fourth place since he is obviously acitvely lurking." -360

Yos2 - "Sarag look suspicious, but at this moment, I'd rather see either Drake or Bogre dead." -235 " " My top 4 was been Drake, Bogre, Sarag, and Ortlan, although I'm less sure about Ort recently; I could see some of his posts as something that could come from town." -349

Hacker (replaced rite) - "If it were my job to fire the gun right now, it would be pointed squarely at Ortolan." "Bogre’s my second, but I think he's a bad target if we're wrong." -236 "I haven't seen anything posted since I replaced in that has changed my mind about Ortolan or Bogre. I'll have to go back and look for a third suspect, because I'm not really feeling the suspicion on Drake and I don't recall why Sarag would be scummy." -282 "In this order: Ortolan, Bogre, Sarag. After rereading it looks like I just took Bogre's initial scumpairing comment about Xyl to be truthful and assumed that he kept with it. It does look like those arguments were oddly one-sided with Xyl attacking Bogre and Bogre not really saying anything about Xyl. [...] I added Sarag to the list because of his early behaviour regarding Bogre. I think slicey nailed it when he called it out as coaching and the way he responded to Bogre's backtracking. I couldn't help but notice that after it was said that Ortolan wouldn't be defending his entire scumteam, that he changed his tune on Sarag." -296

Xyl - "Top three suspects? DraketheFake, ortolan, Bogre. Bonus 4th suspect (since there are 4 scum): Sarag." -244 "I'm pretty sure Yos is town." -294

DoS - "My top 3: Drake, Ort, Bogre." - 246

HR (replaced Vaya?) - "Top 3? Zakeri, Bogre, Slicey/DraketheFake." -248 "Ortolan, Bogre, Sarag" - 296

ort - "drake isn't scum, I'm not scum, Hacker's last post makes me suspect he's worried about being shot by town-Bogre (not that Bogre's other posts haven't themselves been scummy). Dunno about Sarag." -245 "scumteam atm looks like: DoS, Hacker, Sarag, Zakeri" -250 "Sarag or Hacker would be great picks imho" -262

Zakeri - "My top three have only slightly changed - Ort, Bogre, and Drake. Drake edged out over Rite mostly because rite had a replacement." -267 (replaced by) Alamaster - "Scumlist is 1) Sarag 2) Borge 3) ortolan 4) HR " -381

Slicey - "Scum list as of now: Bogre, Sarag, Drake, one of our lurkers (Vaya/Zakeri)" -269 "Final Scumlist: Drake, Sarag, Bogre" -301

Sarag - "But my top three are DraketheFake, Bogre and um.. I don't know maybe Yosarian2 or DragonsofSummer. I don't really have a good third candidate. Yosarian2 keeps sliding under my radar and seems to be playing very reactively, DragonsofSummer only really responded to ortolan's attacks and then went back into hiding. I'm reading town on Slicey, ortolan and Xylthixlm." - 289

Bogre - "Rite[hacker], Drake, zakeri" - 292
And as your mother, you will listen to me, young lady. There will be no leading of these ships and armies on a mass-murdering crusade. Or else.

Vala Mal Doran
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Post Post #383  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 16, 2009 12:50 am

And with that...

Shoot: Bogre

I've been intending to make this shot for a long time. Once rewq started posting especially, I knew I wasn't going to go after Drake like I had been considering because he partially resolved the issues I had with Drake. He doesn't quite make up for his predecessor's bad behaviour, but it's enough to move Bogre back up to the top spot.

Let's see where this goes.
And as your mother, you will listen to me, young lady. There will be no leading of these ships and armies on a mass-murdering crusade. Or else.

Bogre
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Post Post #384  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 16, 2009 2:48 am

Bad choice. I warned you.

Alright guys, who should I shoot?

Oh right, you all are horrible at finding scum.
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ortolan
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Post Post #385  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 16, 2009 6:05 am

I told u he was town. Assuming he is and isn't lying. Please shoot HackerHuck.
Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529

Feel free to PM me to be ready in case I need a replacement.

HowardRoark
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Post Post #386  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 16, 2009 8:18 am

For the record . . .
Vala Mal Doran (382) wrote:HR (replaced Vaya?) - "Top 3? Zakeri, Bogre, Slicey/DraketheFake." -248 "Ortolan, Bogre, Sarag" - 296
296 was HackerHuck, not me.

@Xylthixlm: Please respond to my variation point in 356.
Help your fellow players by replacing into a game.

Slicey
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Post Post #387  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 16, 2009 11:14 am

Vala, that was a bad shot IMHO. Sarag or rewq should have been shot first IMHO.

Either one of those two is fine Bogre.
Taking a temporary retirement from playing mafia games... damn you invitationals.
Coming in Summer 2010: Yu-Gi-Oh: The Abridged Mafia. The most nonsensical game of mafia you'll ever play.
Note: V/LA most weekends, sorry.

Xylthixlm
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Post Post #388  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 16, 2009 11:19 am

HowardRoark wrote:
Xylthixlm (348) wrote:If I take those four's votes out of the count, not only does the top 4 stay the same but it also removes almost every single vote on any player not in that group. The only exceptions are HowardRoark's votes on Slicey and Zakeri.
You're current list was posted 27 NOV. Everyone else started dropping their lists on 09 DEC. Your list and continued strong play allowed over a week for that to settle in to people's minds. Couple that with the poor play of our leading candidates, how much variation did you really expect?

I don't normally see people mindlessly following my scumlist in other games. A couple people sometimes barn me, but generally I have little or no effect. So, if that's what's really happening in this game... it's about time. :twisted:

Also don't underestimate the "poor play of our leading candidates" part.
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"Xyl's ruthless policy lynching won the game." -Vi

Xylthixlm
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Post Post #389  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 16, 2009 11:20 am

ortolan wrote:Assuming he is and isn't lying.

This is a silly assumption. Just wait for the flip.
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"Xyl's ruthless policy lynching won the game." -Vi

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Post Post #390  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 16, 2009 11:38 am

Howard Roark:

What exactly strikes you as strong about Xyl's play? Please, indulge my curiousity as to why you're playing nice to someone who seems to be 'town-leading', yet has posted very little in the way of actual cases.
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Elmo
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Post Post #391  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 16, 2009 12:31 pm

Vala Mal Doran points the unfriendly end at Bogre and squeezes. Bogre's ninja townie instincts kick in, and all of a sudden Vala's lying on the floor and Bogre's holding the gun!

Day 2 dawns!

The gunbearer is Bogre.
The deadline is Wednesday 6th January 2010, 22:00 UTC, which is 21 days, 4 hours and 28 minutes from this post.

Note: I am considering changing the deadline based on how busy people are over Christmas. Feel free to PM me if you have any input!
Succinctness is pro-town.

Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford

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Post Post #392  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 16, 2009 1:47 pm

I dislike both the ortolan and Slicey posts after the trigger was pulled.

@Bogre: Based on the scum lists, Xylthixlm has been pretty much accepted as town. He had given sound advice to Vala Mal Doran (and any future gunbearers). I don't see how questioning the timing of his scum list release and those of others, or questioning his lurker stance "playing nice to" him.

Thoughts on the result forthcoming.
Help your fellow players by replacing into a game.

Xylthixlm
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Post Post #393  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 16, 2009 1:56 pm

What? Bah.

Time for reanalysis.
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Post Post #394  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 16, 2009 2:16 pm

HR wrote:He had given sound advice to Vala Mal Doran (and any future gunbearers)

I don't get how this is a town tell. If you give lots bad theoretical advice as scum, you're just going to get called out on it and look bad.

HR wrote:I dislike both the ortolan and Slicey posts after the trigger was pulled.

Why?

Xylthixlm
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Post Post #395  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 16, 2009 2:28 pm

Analyzing the suspicions still gives me ortolan, rewq, and Sarag as most likely scum, but playing around with the combinations is making me think HowardRoark's point about anchoring to my scumlist is correct.
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"Xyl was completely berserk" -dramonic
"Xyl's ruthless policy lynching won the game." -Vi

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Post Post #396  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 16, 2009 2:47 pm

HowardRoark wrote:I dislike both the ortolan and Slicey posts after the trigger was pulled.


Uh no cause I said he was a bad choice before he was shot also
Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529

Feel free to PM me to be ready in case I need a replacement.

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Post Post #397  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 16, 2009 2:53 pm

Slicey wrote:Final Scumlist:
Drake, Sarag, Bogre


I'm nowhere near as sure as Bogre since the beginning of the game. Drake I'm still confident on, based on the couple posts of his I went into detail in. And I'm sure you can find in my analysis where and what I found scummy about Sarag.


Howard, read that and then tell me what's so bad about what I said. I wanted Bogre to be shot, just not the first shot. I was not nearly as sure with him as I was Sarag and Drake.
Taking a temporary retirement from playing mafia games... damn you invitationals.
Coming in Summer 2010: Yu-Gi-Oh: The Abridged Mafia. The most nonsensical game of mafia you'll ever play.
Note: V/LA most weekends, sorry.

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Post Post #398  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 16, 2009 3:07 pm

Quick response to AlmasterGM . . .

"Sound advice" is part of my point that he was a very strong player. I have not declared Xylthixlm town.

Both ortolan and Slicey were giving Bogre targets before the reveal. Even though Vala Mal Doran shot someone not in their top 4, there was no reason to assume anything prior to reveal.
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Post Post #399  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 16, 2009 5:56 pm

Xylthixlm starts the Bogre wagon based on his reaction to the "don't act scummy" post. Xylthixlm continues to push the Bogre is scum mantra while giving himself an "out" a few times (51 & 81). There's also the fact that he was willing to have Vala Mal Doran die in order for Bogre to die sooner (84). Overall, Xylthixlm doesn't look good in hindsight.


The dirty followers . . .

rite, now HackerHuck, follows with a FoS based on Sarag's argument (58) and confirms it (77) with a 60% chance and later makes Bogre his number one (120). HackerHuck declares Bogre his second (236) beacuse "he's a bad target if we're wrong.".
Yosarian2 works himself slowly onto the wagon (60, 64, 104) and hints at a Bogre-ortolan team (137).
Zakeri, now AlmasterGM, echoes the backtracking and scumslip arguments (75). Then echoes the "rite is scum" deflection argument (89). Suggests a Bogre-ortolan team (140).
Slicey declares Bogre scum and echoes all arguments currently against Bogre, echoes Xylthixlm's Sarag-Bogre link (87). Bogre tops his scum list (269). Goes to a neutral read (301). Bogre is still top 3 (357).

. . . and the strong opposer . . .

ortolan defends Bogre's play with meta (91) and finds the Sarag-Borge team "deeply retarded" (126). --Exception: 206--


The following of Xylthixlm is quickly exemplified with 198-201. See also the "top three" beginnings: 244 & 246.


That means Zakeri/AlmasterGM still leads the way. Yosarian2 makes an appearance in the list. Others TBD.
Help your fellow players by replacing into a game.

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