Mini 886 - Popcorn Mafia - Game over!


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Post Post #204 (isolation #0) » Sat Dec 05, 2009 10:41 am

Post by HowardRoark »

Howdy, y'all! I am reading up and will have some thoughts for you ASAP.
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Post Post #205 (isolation #1) » Sat Dec 05, 2009 1:17 pm

Post by HowardRoark »

I've never played a nightless game like this (or Kingmaker), so this will be interesting.
Sarag (8) wrote:I guess we should vote or FoS even though it has no game effect, in order to aid scumhunting. Like this:
FoS: rite
Why rite? He hadn't even posted?
Slicey (16) wrote:I don't like Sarag's post. The part about voting and FoSing seems forced IMHO.

Vala, do not be impulsive about your shot. Wait and make sure you're making the right decision before you shoot someone. I have absolutely no idea how you play, which is why I'm giving you this warning now.
And yours doesn't?
Zakeri (18) wrote:I would imagine the opposite, what with scum needed to read and understand the rules that apply to them, while town doesn't.
So wrong.
Slicey (34) wrote:I have a hard time getting anything of value out of the RVS, and mainly Day 1 in general.
I can understand your D1 frustrations, however, this reads like an excuse to be less helpful. (Thank goodness I like your activity post 87.)
ortolan (43) wrote:I already find rite, Zakeri, Drake, and DragonsofSummer scummy.
Why? (Why do I have to ask that?)
Bogre (54) wrote:You also scumslipped. You said you know I'm a townie, and to tell us something you don't know. Only scum know I'm a townie.

So, you're scum.
*facepalm* EPIC FAIL.
Bogre (59) wrote:Rite is scum.

You may fire when ready.
Attempt to create WIFOM when/if he is shot.
Bogre (70) wrote:I was presenting the position that I knew would garner reactions.
Sarag (71) wrote:Bogre, my first reaction to that post is: Holy backtracking, Batman!!
QFT
Bogre (76) wrote:I have the freedom to act pretty dynamically to see how people bend or prickle in response. I mean, no one can cause my death except myself, so its really moot on what anyone else thinks of -me-.
*facepalm*
Bogre (78) to rite wrote:Oh hello, scum.
More WIFOM creation.
Xylthixlm (80) wrote:If we're lucky Bogre is scum trying to seem like a townie trying to get the gun. If we're unlucky Bogre is a townie who is playing against the town. Either way I want him dead as soon as possible.
The good news: I agree. The bad news: If he's not scum that means his death equals two town deaths.
Xylthixlm (84) wrote:Shooting him puts him next on the list to die. That's good enough for me.
If you're town, I don't like this attitude/view. If you're Bogre's scum buddy, then I love it.
DraketheFake (88) wrote:once a scum is in the deer lights it might be a good strategy in this game to imply that the next choice is going to come right away to scare off concerned townies.
Explain further please.
ortolan (91) wrote:Bogre always acts like this; it's clearly naught but a null-tell from him.
So how do you propose that we handle him?

@Bogre: (regarding post 99) Yes. Your play (if you are town) has created a lot of focus on you, distracting attention away from others and is therefore anti-town.


There's a start. I'll finish the rest of the thread soon. Once I have enough responses I'll share my targeting thoughts.
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Post Post #212 (isolation #2) » Sun Dec 06, 2009 10:46 am

Post by HowardRoark »

@DragonsofSummer: In post 201 you agree with Xylthixlm and Yosarian2 that DraketheFake needs to be shot before rite. This is the first mention of any suspects from you. Explain please.

@Zakeri: Who do you want to receive the bullet?

@rite: What do you think of Sarag?

@Slicey: What do you think of DragonsofSummer?
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Post Post #223 (isolation #3) » Mon Dec 07, 2009 5:29 pm

Post by HowardRoark »

@mod: please prod . . .
Slicey
last post: 12/02/2009 14:54
DraketheFake
last post: 12/03/2009 00:03
rite
last post: 12/03/2009 01:28
Borge
last post: 12/05/2009 21:33
Vala Mal Doran
last post: 12/05/2009 13:54


I'm still awaiting responses from some these players.
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Post Post #248 (isolation #4) » Wed Dec 09, 2009 3:34 am

Post by HowardRoark »

Slicey still owes me some answers. DraketheFake is being replaced. So I'll move on.

Top 3? Zakeri, Bogre, Slicey/DraketheFake.
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Post Post #251 (isolation #5) » Wed Dec 09, 2009 4:48 am

Post by HowardRoark »

I was going with the just name names and see reactions process. Here's a quick reply . . .

Zakeri: Lurktastic.

Borge: Scummy.

Slicey/DraketheFake: Gut.

Links are better once you have at least one dead.

. . . care to share concerning your list?
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Post Post #280 (isolation #6) » Thu Dec 10, 2009 3:39 am

Post by HowardRoark »

Zakeri (267) wrote:
I think Zakeri is lurking again.
I don't lurk.
{snip}
Howard wrote:Zakeri: Lurktastic.
I lurk equally in all games, no matter my alignment.
Contradiction, no?
Zakeri (267) wrote:Ort, Bogre, and Drake. Drake edged out over Rite mostly because rite had a replacement.
So . . . a replacement and the prior play means nothing? . . . no thoughts on the replacement?

Slicey (269) wrote:More to come later...
Keep biding your time.
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Post Post #298 (isolation #7) » Fri Dec 11, 2009 2:21 am

Post by HowardRoark »

Zakeri (281) wrote:It looks like a contradiction to people who like to misrepresent other people's words, but it's not. Both of those quotes were meant to show that I don't do scummy active lurking, I just do regular inactive lurking.
There's no misrepresentation when you did not state that specifically.
Sarag (289) wrote:Yosarian2 keeps sliding under my radar
If he were truly sliding under the radar, then I would be worried about him.
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Post Post #304 (isolation #8) » Sat Dec 12, 2009 8:47 am

Post by HowardRoark »

Slicey (301) wrote:Howard, is there anything in particular you find scummy about me?
Can't put a finger on it. Therefore, gut.
Slicey (301) wrote:Howard, why are you lurker hunting? What do you think of ort? How about Bogre.
Lack of posting = lack of information => more difficult scum hunting.
I'm getting a slight town read on ortolan right now.
Concerning Bogre, see my scumlist. (Hint: he's number 2.)
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Post Post #308 (isolation #9) » Sat Dec 12, 2009 2:14 pm

Post by HowardRoark »

See my post 205.
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Post Post #356 (isolation #10) » Mon Dec 14, 2009 6:13 pm

Post by HowardRoark »

Xylthixlm (314) wrote:I'm all for shooting lurkers, especially scummy lurkers.
Why is the lurking of Zakeri and Slicey not scummy?
Xylthixlm (348) wrote:If I take those four's votes out of the count, not only does the top 4 stay the same but it also removes
almost every single vote on any player not in that group
. The only exceptions are HowardRoark's votes on Slicey and Zakeri.
You're current list was posted 27 NOV. Everyone else started dropping their lists on 09 DEC. Your list and continued strong play allowed over a week for that to settle in to people's minds. Couple that with the poor play of our leading candidates, how much variation did you really expect?


@Slicey: What's PoE?


QFT HackerHuck's 355 (except the 75% part).
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Post Post #365 (isolation #11) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 1:13 pm

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Sarag (360) wrote:The reasons given for Bogre and Slicey and DraketheFake are not real reasons at all. And why group Slicey and Drake together both as your "third" option AND when giving reasons?
Can't help it; just gut there. I have a hard time seeing more than one or two possible scum until someone flips and I have more to work with. (Either that or everyone looks like scum which sucks worse.) Notice any other players out there with a "gut" third or fourth choice?
Xylthixlm (363) wrote:Did you realize that both of them have made at least as many posts as you have?
Yes. (Well, not now.) I also replaced into the game on page 9.
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Post Post #386 (isolation #12) » Wed Dec 16, 2009 2:18 am

Post by HowardRoark »

For the record . . .
Vala Mal Doran (382) wrote:HR (replaced Vaya?) - "Top 3? Zakeri, Bogre, Slicey/DraketheFake." -248 "Ortolan, Bogre, Sarag" - 296
296 was HackerHuck, not me.

@Xylthixlm: Please respond to my variation point in 356.
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Post Post #392 (isolation #13) » Wed Dec 16, 2009 7:47 am

Post by HowardRoark »

I dislike both the ortolan and Slicey posts after the trigger was pulled.

@Bogre: Based on the scum lists, Xylthixlm has been pretty much accepted as town. He had given sound advice to Vala Mal Doran (and any future gunbearers). I don't see how questioning the timing of his scum list release and those of others, or questioning his lurker stance "playing nice to" him.

Thoughts on the result forthcoming.
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Post Post #398 (isolation #14) » Wed Dec 16, 2009 9:07 am

Post by HowardRoark »

Quick response to AlmasterGM . . .

"Sound advice" is part of my point that he was a very strong player. I have not declared Xylthixlm town.

Both ortolan and Slicey were giving Bogre targets before the reveal. Even though Vala Mal Doran shot someone not in their top 4, there was no reason to assume anything prior to reveal.
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Post Post #399 (isolation #15) » Wed Dec 16, 2009 11:56 am

Post by HowardRoark »

Xylthixlm starts the Bogre wagon based on his reaction to the "don't act scummy" post. Xylthixlm continues to push the Bogre is scum mantra while giving himself an "out" a few times (51 & 81). There's also the fact that he was willing to have Vala Mal Doran die in order for Bogre to die sooner (84). Overall, Xylthixlm doesn't look good in hindsight.


The dirty followers . . .

rite, now HackerHuck, follows with a FoS based on Sarag's argument (58) and confirms it (77) with a 60% chance and later makes Bogre his number one (120). HackerHuck declares Bogre his second (236) beacuse "he's a bad target if we're wrong.".
Yosarian2 works himself slowly onto the wagon (60, 64, 104) and hints at a Bogre-ortolan team (137).
Zakeri, now AlmasterGM, echoes the backtracking and scumslip arguments (75). Then echoes the "rite is scum" deflection argument (89). Suggests a Bogre-ortolan team (140).
Slicey declares Bogre scum and echoes all arguments currently against Bogre, echoes Xylthixlm's Sarag-Bogre link (87). Bogre tops his scum list (269). Goes to a neutral read (301). Bogre is still top 3 (357).

. . . and the strong opposer . . .

ortolan defends Bogre's play with meta (91) and finds the Sarag-Borge team "deeply retarded" (126). --Exception: 206--


The following of Xylthixlm is quickly exemplified with 198-201. See also the "top three" beginnings: 244 & 246.


That means Zakeri/AlmasterGM still leads the way. Yosarian2 makes an appearance in the list. Others TBD.
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Post Post #413 (isolation #16) » Thu Dec 17, 2009 2:42 am

Post by HowardRoark »

Bogre (405) wrote:This one's for everyone: Do you feel that Almaster's query is valid, given the comments HR has given, esp. his indications of Xyl's strong play, and his subtle accusation that Xyl looks bad in hindsight?
Does that include me? (Just to be clear, are you talking about post 394?) BTW, there's nothing subtle about my statement. I want reactions!
HackerHuck (406) wrote:I don't like how he's stating that Xyl has been accepted as town. I don't think you can make the connection that agreeing with Xyl's scumlist is the same as finding him town.
I'm not saying it's about the scum lists. Try again.
Yosarian2 (409) wrote:So, wait...you think it's suspicious that I suspected Bogre yesterday, even though you did as well?
No. I didn't make it clear in that post. You were quite noncomittal about Bogre. You've been following Xylthixlm like a lost puppy.

I also singled out ortolan because he was the strongest opposer of a Bogre lynch. I'm not much of a meta case guy. That seemed to be the heart of ortolan's defense of Bogre. Easy scum defense of a townie based on role-based knowledge, or honest love of a good meta case?

After yesterday's reread, I found a scum for a gold nugget reason that nobody has picked up on yet. With that player's death, I think we will be well on our way.

I want to see a few more reactions to my thoughts before I continue.
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Post Post #421 (isolation #17) » Fri Dec 18, 2009 3:13 am

Post by HowardRoark »

Perhaps stating that Xylthixlm
appears
to have been accepted as town would make it clearer -- something that the phrase "based on the scum lists" was meant to apply. AlmasterGM, you replaced my number one suspect. Maybe you can change my mind, but right now . . . no.

@Xylthixlm: I understand that you feel that Yosarian2 is town here, but defending him doesn't help him look any better nor me to develop my read.
Yosarian2 (417) wrote:It's also pretty absurd for to claim I was "noncomittal" about Bogre, considering just how much time I spent commenting on his play.
I'll handle this sentence in reverse order. Commenting does not show commitment, I know you know this. Look at your iso 3, 6, and 22. You finally make a commitment in 24 (one post which will become important after my gold nugget reveal).

Speaking of which . . . Why does nobody seem interested in it? Also there are a few who have not commented since I announced the find or even since the shot was taken.
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Post Post #423 (isolation #18) » Fri Dec 18, 2009 4:42 am

Post by HowardRoark »

I'm not expecting any begging. I've already said that I want to see reactions to my gold nugget statement. Once people have made some commitments today, it shall be revealed. That is my motivation. If you believe that is anti-town, so be it. On that note . . . I want to see a top suspect from everybody.

Based on what has already been posted, here's where we stand:

ortolan -> HackerHuck
Slicey -> Sarag or rewq455 (pick one please)
Xylthixlm -> ortolan or rewq455 or Sarag (pick one please)
HackerHuck -> ortolan
Sarag -> HackerHuck
Yosarian2 ???
DragonsofSummer ???
rewq455 ???
AlmasterGM ???

I'd like to move this forward, so let's see those names.
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Post Post #433 (isolation #19) » Sat Dec 19, 2009 10:57 am

Post by HowardRoark »

ortolan -> HackerHuck
HackerHuck -> ortolan
Sarag -> HackerHuck
AlmasterGM -> HowardRoark
DragonsofSummer -> ortolan
Yosarian2 ???
rewq455 ???
Slicey -> Sarag or rewq455 (pick one please)
Xylthixlm -> ortolan or rewq455 or Sarag (pick one please)

I want a one player commitment from each of you. Announcement coming soon.
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Post Post #438 (isolation #20) » Sat Dec 19, 2009 11:39 am

Post by HowardRoark »

@Xylthixlm: Noted.

@HackerHuck: How did you feel about Xylthixlm guiding Vala Mal Doran?
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Post Post #444 (isolation #21) » Sun Dec 20, 2009 3:40 am

Post by HowardRoark »

@mod: please prod Slicey and Sarag
last posts: DEC 16


Sarag -> HackerHuck
ortolan -> HackerHuck
HackerHuck -> ortolan
AlmasterGM -> HowardRoark
DragonsofSummer -> ortolan
rewq455 -> ortolan
Xylthixlm -> ortolan or rewq455 or Sarag (refused to pick one)
Yosarian2 ??? (ignored request)
Slicey -> Sarag or rewq455 (has not posted)

@Bogre: I'd like to hear from Slicey first, but if you want it now just say so.
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Post Post #450 (isolation #22) » Sun Dec 20, 2009 12:05 pm

Post by HowardRoark »

Sarag (360) wrote:Some of this probably won't get answered until day 2, but I wanted to get it in before the day ends in case I'm shot.
Oops! Why would one be worried about being shot D1 . . . and not being around D2? Hmmmmmm . . . SCUM!!

Bogre (448) wrote:1.) Why do you feel I was tunneling on Rite/Huck? Was this deserved?
I wouldn't say that you were tunneling on rite/HackerHuck. You had useful interaction with other players: ortolan, Slicey, Xylthixlm to name a few.
Bogre (448) wrote:2)If you had one failing as a scumhunter in this game, what would it be?
Obviously I was wrong about you. I've also probably not been aggressive enough.
Bogre (448) wrote:3)Who has been the most effective/least effecting in scumhunting?
Until AlmasterGM picks up the pace, he's still been as helpless as Zakeri. Most effective could be any of the active players: Xylthixlm, Slicey, ortolan to name a few. (*toot* Plus me with this Sarag find. *toot*)
Bogre (448) wrote:4) Who is the most/least protown? Why are you protown? What have you done anti-town?
I find Sarag least pro-town because he is scum. Excluding him, it's AlmasterGM. DragonsofSummer comes in a close second, but from what little experience I have with him, this seems usual. Xylthixlm's advice has been pro-town. I am pro-town for finding that nugget. I've been less than stellar with my play from replacing through the end of the day.


@HackerHuck: I thought my question was very clear: "How did you feel about Xylthixlm guiding Vala Mal Doran?" Answer; don't avoid.

@Yosarian2, rewq455, HackerHuck: Why the worry about the evidence prior to reveal?

@Xylthixlm: Why did you refuse to pick one?

@Yosarian2: Why did you not answer my one suspect question?
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Post Post #458 (isolation #23) » Mon Dec 21, 2009 7:33 am

Post by HowardRoark »

Yosarian2 (457) wrote:
HowardRoark wrote:@HackerHuck: I thought my question was very clear: "How did you feel about Xylthixlm guiding Vala Mal Doran?" Answer; don't avoid.
Is that what you think was happening, Howard?
Obviously he was.
HackerHuck (439) wrote:
HowardRoark wrote:@HackerHuck: How did you feel about Xylthixlm guiding Vala Mal Doran?
I don't recall anyone really trying to lead the town around yesterday. What in particular would you like me to comment on?
HackerHuck (456) wrote:
HowardRoark wrote:@HackerHuck: I thought my question was very clear: "How did you feel about Xylthixlm guiding Vala Mal Doran?" Answer; don't avoid.
I thought I was pretty clear in my response. I'll try to rephrase it so that you understand.

I didn't really think that Xyl was specifically guiding Vala. Give me some examples of what you're talking about and I'll give you my feelings on them.
These answers do not address Xylthixlm's advice giving yesterday because that would show the different standards in response to my play versus Xylthixlm's. (@HackerHuck: Look at iso 0, 4, 32, 36, 49 to you, 50, 52, 53, 54, 55, 65, 66 for some examples with Vala Mal Doran and other players.)


Posts 423, 433, and 444 are where I indicated that I wanted a single suspect from every player. I revealed that I had a damning piece of evidence on a player. The reasoning to get one top suspect should be clear.


I would like everyone to weigh-in on the evidence. (For those who need it spelled out: Do you agree that Sarag is obvscum based on the post 360 statement? If not, why not?)
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Post Post #469 (isolation #24) » Wed Dec 23, 2009 3:22 am

Post by HowardRoark »

Obviously I believe that Sarag made an honest scum slip. If I hadn't I probably would have handled it differently. If Bogre had an issue with how I was handling the find, I expect that he would say something just as some of you did. When he asked that I reveal before I had all of the responses that I had hoped to see, I did so.


Happy holiday greeting to all.
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Post Post #479 (isolation #25) » Wed Dec 23, 2009 4:46 pm

Post by HowardRoark »

@HackerHuck: How much discussion has there been in this game about the mechanics and proper play? A good amount. I have no reason to believe that it had anything to do with a lapse in understanding. (BTW, thanks for giving the scum an out if she couldn't or didn't think of that as an excuse.) I wanted everyone to commit to one player based on the upcoming announcement in order to possibly see someone making a major unexplained change in suspicion. Would it have given us anything concrete? Maybe.
Could
it have? Maybe; and that's enough for me. I don't understand what about my post 469 gives you the impression that I have any doubts about my find.
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Post Post #482 (isolation #26) » Wed Dec 23, 2009 6:19 pm

Post by HowardRoark »

The answer is that it is a
scum
slip. Sarag was a possible target D1. She knew that. She was afraid of being shot and therefore not being around D2. To paraphrase Bogre: I'm not
afraid
of being shot. There is no reason to fear the business end of the gun . . . unless you are scum.
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Post Post #484 (isolation #27) » Wed Dec 23, 2009 7:16 pm

Post by HowardRoark »

Someone is actually doing some of the work for themselves.
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Post Post #511 (isolation #28) » Sat Dec 26, 2009 1:59 pm

Post by HowardRoark »

If ortolan is town gambiting . . . what is the point? I don't see how it leads to finding scum.
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Post Post #531 (isolation #29) » Tue Dec 29, 2009 2:04 am

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I still want a Sarag lynch. A lot of players have not commented on it and that's frustrating.
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Post Post #534 (isolation #30) » Wed Dec 30, 2009 2:23 am

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Yes, I said Bogre was scummy. No, I did not say he was scum. He was number two on my list for his scummy play because I didn't have stronger reads on my other suspects.

You bet I threw a little pressure on the Bogre wagoners. Two of whom I had weak scum reads on D1. Two of whom I had little read on yesterday. ortolan is on the opposite end of the spectrum because he adamantly opposed a Bogre shot.

I understand the benefit of the linkage created via defense of another player. However, I was very sure of what his thoughts would be.

Take my Sarag scum tell as you wish. I know what I see. Responses to it and her death could be invaluable.
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Post Post #567 (isolation #31) » Fri Jan 01, 2010 9:48 pm

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Xylthixlm (552) wrote:I just looked at the first post and the scum only need to equal or exceed the town
minus the gunbearer
...
Good catch. A more impressive translation: two consecutive mislynches at this point means game over.

@Maemuki: Have you finished the complete read yet?

@Nachomamma8: Who else do you you believe to be scum?
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Post Post #621 (isolation #32) » Tue Jan 05, 2010 2:34 am

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Concerning Xylthixlm: I went back to examine the scum lists generated D1. That's when I noticed that Xylthixlm had posted his several days before the question was asked and others posted theirs. Seeing how that may have affected others' lists, I became a bit concerned. So, I poked at him. He's either good scum or a town asset. I can't be any more certain than that. I couldn't just let him play the town leader without mentioning my concerns.


Concerning Sarag: I want her dead. I believe that it was a scum slip. Whether or not you believe that my explanation sucked (no offense taken), look at her change in play after many of you ignored my catch. I believe that she is not stupid and has made a good chance at redemption with many of you. It doesn't fool me.

Her case: 1) Slicey "could be" one of the most effective scum hunters. How do we know who was effective until we shoot scum? 2) As mentioned above, I was nervous about Xylthixlm's role and apparent leading of the town. I never said he was scum and he "could be" one of the most effective scum hunters. 3) There's also post 398 where I talk about Xylthixlm giving "sound advice" to the gunbearer.

HackerHuck (607) wrote:Do you think that would mean Xyl's list is pretty accurate if Howard is scum or do you think he's planting a seed to get Xyl shot because his list is all wet?
If I were scum knowing that his list is wrong . . . why would I question him leading the town? It'd make more sense to let him lead and whoever became the gunbearer would possibly be following him setting up more bad shots.


@Bogre: Tell me what didn't make sense to you.
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Post Post #654 (isolation #33) » Sun Jan 10, 2010 3:04 pm

Post by HowardRoark »

@AlmasterGM: Concerning 647, what exactly is interesting? Spell it out for me.

@DragonsofSummer: Sarag still tops my list. I'll give you two more after some review.
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Post Post #660 (isolation #34) » Mon Jan 11, 2010 8:54 am

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My next two would be Maemuki or HackerHuck.
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Post Post #673 (isolation #35) » Thu Jan 14, 2010 3:37 am

Post by HowardRoark »

@Maemuki: Top three suspects.
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Post Post #675 (isolation #36) » Thu Jan 14, 2010 6:22 am

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@Maemuki: Sorry. Why HackerHuck and myself?
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Post Post #688 (isolation #37) » Sat Jan 16, 2010 6:47 pm

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@DragonsofSummer:

Sarag's 360 scum slip. Done.

Maemuki replaced Slicey on whom I had a gut scum read. Since replacing has not done any scum hunting. Just look at the iso.

HackerHuck's 462 dismisses my Sarag find without any thought, even though he's been back-and-forth on her.


@Yosarian2: Maybe try looking at my site-wide posting. I'm in a limited access situation. Also, please show me where I have been "uber-attacking" HackerHuck all game. He didn't come onto my short list until D2.
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Post Post #704 (isolation #38) » Tue Jan 19, 2010 7:46 am

Post by HowardRoark »

DragonsofSummer (698) wrote:HR are you really basing two of your cases on one post from each of the players, and the other on gut at this point in the game?
Those posts are the core of my reads on Sarag and HackerHuck. The Slicey read was mostly gut, and Maemuki hasn't done anything. With my limited access, that's all I can produce with quotes at this time.
You shouldn't shoot me because I am a townie who has been scum hunting.
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Post Post #741 (isolation #39) » Thu Jan 21, 2010 10:08 pm

Post by HowardRoark »

@ortolan: As much as I'd like HackerHuck shot dead, I don't know that his possibly inaccurate reads are damning on their own and the DoS gun bearing choice is WIFOM territory.

On shooting Yosarian2: I agree that it would be telling, but I think we should go with a scummier player today. We have two free mislynches available right now. Hitting another scum today leaves us with one scum to go. Then shooting Yosarian2 might be a good choice.


I should have time and access for a good re-read before the week-end is complete.
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Post Post #763 (isolation #40) » Sun Jan 24, 2010 11:38 am

Post by HowardRoark »

I think that seeing the result of a shot at Yosarian2 would solidify reads on HackerHuck (who he has been defending), Xylthixlm (where there has been a lot of support for each other), and Nachomamma8 (where there was more suspicion during the attacks on Xylthixlm and a town read after they stopped).
Yosarian2 (744) wrote:Howard's last post is pretty funny though. Did anyone else read it as: "No, don't shoot Yos now, because then he'll shoot me. Let's see if we can mislynch one more townie today and then get the gunbarer to shoot Yos tomorrow."
If you are town and we shot you today, you might be likely shoot me, and we'd be in LyLo again. How would I as scum benefit from a bad shot today (4+1:2), a shot at a town you (3+1:2), and you shooting me next?
Maemuki (748) wrote:
AlmasterGM wrote:17 - Suspects Sarag, HH, and HR. Gives NO reasons for any of them.
*whistles* More reasons to shoot HH!
Maemuki (750) wrote:
Xylthixlm wrote:Right now I'm leaning towards HowardRoark + HackerHuck as the last two scum, mostly by process of elimination.
I took the same conclusion, mostly because of this post:
AlmasterGM wrote:17 - Suspects Sarag, HH, and HR. Gives NO reasons for any of them.
Why only focus on HackerHuck in 748?
Yosarian2 (757) wrote:After I went back and did a re-read on Almaster that day , I moved him up to one of the top two lynches.
663: "my main suspects are Howard and Maemuki", "Sarag seems a reasonable suspect, but I'm a little wishy washy on that one."
(re-read)
664: "Almaster could be scum."
682: "That leaves Howard, Mae, Hacker, Sarag, and Almester."
683: Xylthixlm names Sarag and AlmasterGM as the good shots.
686: ortolan names Sarag and AlmasterGM as primary concerns with some concern about Yosarian2.
689: HackerHuck includes AlmasterGM in his four scum list.
691: Sarag names AlmasterGM in his four player scum list.
693: Maemuki believes in a Sarag and AlmasterGM scum team.
695: " My current main two choices are Howard and Almaster, with Almaster probably being the most obvious kill today. Sarag and Mae are also probably scum."
696: "Almaster is very likely scum here."
The re-read wasn't when you moved him into your top two. It was only after others endorsed him.


@mod: Please prod Nachomamma8


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Post Post #765 (isolation #41) » Sun Jan 24, 2010 4:16 pm

Post by HowardRoark »

Here we are in D3 Lylo . . .

Sarag only started bussing AlmasterGM after AlmasterGM appeared on several scum lists. Town point: HowardRoark, HackerHuck, Maemuki.
AlmasterGM's list only gives us still unknowns.
ortolan sticks with Sarag and adds AlmasterGM after Xylthixlm's two list.
Xylthixlm started with HackerHuck but reasonably switched to Sarag and AlmasterGM. +Town points.
HackerHuck defended Sarag, and added AlmasterGM after he was listed a lot. Didn't mention Sarag from the short list. +Scum point.
Nachomamma8 was indecisive on AlmasterGM until late and only mentioned Sarag once. +Scum points.
Yosarian2 is uncertain about Sarag and wekly adds AlmasterGM after a re-read. Moves AlmasterGM to top two and Sarag to next two. Moves AlmasterGM to #1 after a prod from Sarag. +Scum points.
Maemuki comes in late with Sarag #1 and adds AlmasterGM later.


Short D4 events . . .

Maemuki goes after Sarag immediately. I have difficulty seeing scum bussing that quickly. +Town points.
HackerHuck again defends Sarag. +Scum point.
ortolan wants Sarag. +Town points.
Yosarian2 and Xylthixlm follow with votes for Sarag.


That gives me Nachomamma8 and Yosarian2 as the scummiest.

@Nachomamma8: You came into the game with an attack on Xylthixlm. Yosarian2 seemed to distract you from that. You also suddenly drop your interaction with Yosarian2. You don't mention them again until after DragonsofSummer asked you who should not be shot. At that point you say that Xylthixlm and Yosarian2 are most the pro-town players. Explain your reads of Xylthixlm and Yosarian2.

@Yosarian2: In iso 60 you say that you are less suspicious of Nachomamma8 without ever having expressed suspicion. In iso 70 you exclude Nachomamma8 from the all four of the scum are in this group of five list with an air of uncertainty. In iso 76 you question Xylthixlm's plan to shoot everyone but Xylthixlm, ortolan, and yourself by saying, "if we shoot me and then I'm wrong about, say, Nacho, town could still lose" without ever mentioning switching your view of Nachomamma8 to a solid town read. Please elaborate on your evolving read of Nachomamma8.
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Post Post #785 (isolation #42) » Wed Jan 27, 2010 2:33 pm

Post by HowardRoark »

@Yosarian2: A response to my post 765 please.

@Nachomamma8: That slip was all I needed for my solid scum read on Sarag.

(Site issues not helping with my limited access.)
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Post Post #801 (isolation #43) » Sun Jan 31, 2010 5:21 pm

Post by HowardRoark »

(Apologies for unexpected LA.)

@Yosarian2: While I can follow most of your thought process, there still is to wiggle room for Nachomamma8 scum to be shot and you to avoid solid linkage. Scum posts can make sense to a townie and will almost always make sense to a scum teammate.

@Nachomamma8: I can't point you to a game where I pegged scum on a single tell. This one was just too obvious after all the game mechanics discussion. Also, there'd be no final thoughts before some took a shot at me; I'd have the next day bearing the gun to share.

@ortolan: Please explain your interpretation of Yosarian's post; I'm not following you.


My concern here is that Yosarian2 is scum, either partnered with or fooling Xylthixm. The latter being more frightening because I haven't seen a good link to anyone else.
@Xylthixlm: In your experience with Yosarian2, how easily do you find his scum partners?
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Post Post #807 (isolation #44) » Wed Feb 03, 2010 12:50 pm

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@Yosarian2: I could have easily just stayed with a top pick like Maemuki. Instead, I went back and looked over the D3 and D4 events. It had nothing to do with ortolan. That review pointed me to you and Nachomamma8. My read on Nachomamma8 is slightly scummy. Remember that he replaced DraketheFake/rewq455 whom you had in your scum list for a while without much comment or interaction. When Nachomamma8 replaced into the game, you had an exchange with him for attacking Xylthixlm, but have since written him off as town. Translation: a good distancing move. It all started to come together after my re-read. You completely ignored my Sarag reveal. He was in your scum list at the time, but you didn't pressure him about it. I don't know if you would have said something as scum but not as town, I'm not much of a meta guy, and that isn't a black-and-white scenario.
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Post Post #819 (isolation #45) » Sat Feb 06, 2010 10:59 am

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@Yosarian2: If you "never bought" my Sarag scum tell because it "seemed off," why didn't you make a comment at the time? Why wait until now?
I (801) wrote:@ortolan: Please explain your interpretation of Yosarian's post; I'm not following you.
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Post Post #863 (isolation #46) » Tue Feb 09, 2010 2:54 pm

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I guess we await the reveal.
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Post Post #874 (isolation #47) » Fri Feb 12, 2010 2:32 am

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I will have time and access this week-end. Give me tomorrow to re-read and respond.
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Post Post #878 (isolation #48) » Sat Feb 13, 2010 4:18 pm

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If it were LyLo and I was holding the gun, I would shoot Yosarian2. I believe that he was following and buddying with Xylthixlm early, his OMGUS-esque view change on me (circa page 17), following rewq455 (445) in begging Bogre to stop me from pressuring payers when I was preparing to share my Sarag scum slip, his horrible argument in 744, why 744 is bad and linkage to now-dead scum, my 765, finally the 15 minute differential "simulpost" with the Nachomamma8 reveal.
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Post Post #884 (isolation #49) » Wed Feb 17, 2010 4:25 am

Post by HowardRoark »

Maybe this will work . . .

Can't you see? Yosarian2 is scum. It couldn't be any more obvious.

No messy responding to others' points. No grueling re-read. Perfection.
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Post Post #889 (isolation #50) » Thu Feb 18, 2010 5:07 am

Post by HowardRoark »

What exactly am I to be defending against?
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Post Post #898 (isolation #51) » Mon Feb 22, 2010 8:20 am

Post by HowardRoark »

My apologies. My training week-end was more time consuming than expected.

shoot: Yosarian2


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Post Post #927 (isolation #52) » Mon Mar 01, 2010 3:37 am

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The setup was great. I had a good time. I apologize for my lack of connectivity. Properly picking a gunbearer is crucial to a scum win. Confirming a lurker like DragonsofSummer was not the best choice. (hindsight . . . ) I enjoyed playing with y'all.
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