Mafia 108 - Mafia With The Quickness - over!

[Kmd4390]

Vote Netopalis

Why avoid the wagon?

[Kmd4390]

Haylen, since you're online, what do you think of the bandwagon and Netopalis's post?

[Kmd4390]

If you hate random voting, why are you voting Maemuki?

What did you mean by your statement about the bandwagon?

[Kmd4390]

If you find Neto's actions suspicions, why is your vote based on a joke counterclaim.

[Kmd4390]

If you find Neto's actions suspicious, why is your vote based on a joke counterclaim?

^Spelling and grammar fixed.

[Kmd4390]

Disliking random voting doesn't mean he wouldn't do it, KMD. ^

He used it as a reason for avoiding the wagon. To me, this implies that he saw a wagon vote as a random vote and didn't want to do it. Yet his vote is as random as they come.

[Kmd4390]

Netopalis, why was your vote better than voting on the bandwagon?

Sorry I'm late, I was doing a work. Stupid Natural Sciences teacher. I already had a 100%, what more do you want? [/rant]

Anyway.

Vote: Annachie

, 'cause you haven't posted yet. Lurker.

@ Netp, why is RQS > RVS?

The game started an hour ago. Why are you apologizing? And why restate a question already asked?

[Kmd4390]

I'm getting better. Page 2 and I have 4 pretty solid reads. Neto and Mae as scum. Haylen and Saint as town.

[Kmd4390]

I have a theory about Mafia. Essentially, Mafia is a game of information. Most information, when out in the open, assists town (Obviously, some of it assists mafia too, like the identities of power roles). In my opinion, the random vote stage generates false information. Experienced players will ignore votes coming out of the RVS, while inexperienced players will panic. This panic is read as scummy, and that leads to the lynch of the inexperienced player. This explains why D1 lynches are statistically worse than random.

I disagree. Well, to an extent. I don't think the player who "panics" is always the lynch. But poor play does often lead to being lynched Day 1.

This is starting to feel like a Marathon game lol. I kinda like it.

[Kmd4390]

The game started an hour ago. Why are you apologizing? And why restate a question already asked?

It's on my nature, I apologise for being 5 minutes late. So?

And that's because I didn't see SK's post.

Did you feel like you were expected to be here for the game's start? If so, why?

I voted Maemuki based on the generation of a random number selection of people not on the bandwagon. I chose not to follow the bandwagon for reasons described in the first paragraph of my previous post.

Why not say so when you voted? You said no reason. And how is that any better than some kind of useful vote that we can actually talk about?

On what grounds? Some MD-style discussions? Many good players loathe random votes - most begrudgingly accept it, as evidenced by the number of threads in MD which attempt to find ways to get around the necessity of random votes in the early game.

Well, you:
-commented on the wagon, but avoided it
-random voted when you said you don't like random voting
-used the above as a reason for avoiding the wagon
-used a random number generater, but told us your vote had no reason

Mae:
-Seems to feel like she was expected to be here for the game's start (nervousness point=scum point)

I don't see a reason to elaborate on my town reads. Ok, posting this then finishing catching up.

[Kmd4390]

Damn, lost my post. Let's see if I can remember what I had:

I'm getting better. Page 2 and I have 4 pretty solid reads. Neto and Mae as scum. Haylen and Saint as town.

*claps slowly* Way to go - Saint is voting your town read and Haylen is voting with you. Bravo, bravo.

Something wrong with that?

Sarcasm against your attacker is noted.

But you understand my point, I take it? That RVS is not a good predictor of who is scum?

I disagree.

In other news,

Unvote: Haylen. Vote: Netlava.

Something about his post just rubbed me the wrong way...just kidding. My beef with Net is that he voted Maemuki for a very vague reason and for apologizing (obviously a nulltell). Feels opportunistic.

I can see that, but only if Mae is town (or we have multiple anti-town factions).

Well yeah. I'm known to be a lurker - if you didn't know that, you do now. I talked to Incog and he let me in as long as I didn't lurk. I thought it would be better if I was here for the start because of that.

Not gonna lie, that's a weird thing to expect. That you'd have to be here right at the start. It actually makes sense though with your reasoning.

[Kmd4390]

WARNING: TANGENTIAL RANT AHEAD.

I do not wish this to become a distraction to finding scums in this game, but I have to get something off my chest regarding general mafia theory.

Unfortunately, there have not been enough games using the random question system to give a good statistical analysis. My initial research shows, though, that it has more often led to town victories. Most of the games that I have read in which the random question system leads to a mislynch are due to the town lynching the questioner for going against the established norm of the site. With more question games, this stigma would be alleviated.

Your initial research is bullshit. I don't want you to do this in-game, because it will ultimately serve as a huge distraction to actually finding scum, but after this game I'm going to make a thread. In said thread, I want you to explain how your observation of RQS vs RVS constitutes a valid analysis of a game which has literally dozens (and possibly hundreds) of variables. Are you really naive enough to believe that RQS vs RVS is the sole (or even a primary) cause of victory in Mafia?

Ultimately, the Random Whatever the Fuck You Want to Call it Stage is nothing more than an icebreaker. The RWFYWTCS is significantly LESS important than the pages immediately after RWFYWTCS. I don't care if it's RQS or RVS or Random-Theory-Discussion-Stage or anything else. But people don't find scum through the arbitrary start-of-game crap. They find scum through whatever comes AFTER the arbitrary start-of-game crap.


END RANT.







That said, we should lynch Bogre.

Comments on what has happened so far?

[Kmd4390]

@ Kmd: Why not elaborate on your town reads? I have to say, I'm getting a little worried about you. I don't really see the point in most of the points against Neto (except maybe the random-voting despite disliking it), and your reason for making Mae a sure scum read isn't a good one.

I'm not elaborating on town reads because there's no reason to. The only reason I can think of off the top of my head is if I was defending you from a lynch, which right now, isn't something to worry about.

Neto seems to be changing his story and squiriming a little too much.

I was wrong on Mae.

Agreed, there is a lot more that goes into it. However, if we seek to improve D1 play (I just did a quick count of the mini normals, and the count is 17 scum lynched D1 compared to 35 town lynched D1 - not as bad as I thought, but hardly optimal), and given that there is one common thread - random voting - it seems that improving that area would probably improve D1 play in general.

Enough theory talk.

SK: You meant to vote for me, not for Netlava, I think.

Why'd you think that?

Bogre: Not at the moment. I would normally say that I think that a few people are being

overeager to lynch

based on questionable tells, but I've noticed that whenever I attack people for that, they're usually town, so I don't really feel that it's a good predictor.

Who is looking for a lynch?

[Kmd4390]

Sweet, the site's back. Stupid fatal error thing. Catching up again.

[Kmd4390]

*nods* It is. But since Incog said so, I thought it would be better if I was on the safe side. But that's beside the point. Carry on!

Wait, did Incog say to be around for the start or was it your own idea?

She's mentioned that in every game I've played with her in, I think, so I don't think its anything beyond a disclaimer for her meta.

Noted. Thanks.

--------------------------
Neto,

Who is looking for a lynch?

-------------------------

Glork, wtf?

[Kmd4390]

She's mentioned that in every game I've played with her in, I think, so I don't think its anything beyond a disclaimer for her meta.

Actually people mention it before I do, or I need to bring it up for some reason. I wish I could go through a game without someone, anyone mentioning it.

Oh yay dice rolls, what do the numbers on the dice mean, Glork? Why did you use dice?

I'm sure you can figure it out if you bother to read and think.

Choosing a bandwagon? (Neto vs Mae?)

[Kmd4390]

Ok, Mae is town.

[Kmd4390]

kmd wins a prize

Sweet.

[Kmd4390]

I'm getting better. Page 2 and I have 4 pretty solid reads. Neto and Mae as scum. Haylen and Saint as town.

Ok, Mae is town.

That sure changed quickly for bien ga "pretty solid read."

Yeah. More information helps.

[Kmd4390]

It was a solid read considering the information availible at the time.

Neto, I still think is scum. Haylen, nothing has really changed. Saint is probably still town. You're probably town. Bogre is probably town. Netlava is probably scum.

[Kmd4390]

Unvote

Getting a better vibe from mae, at least for now.

Ok, you voted with the same reasoning I used. I change my mind and you post this. What are you doing?

[Kmd4390]

It was a solid read considering the information availible at the time.

Neto, I still think is scum. Haylen, nothing has really changed. Saint is probably still town. You're probably town. Bogre is probably town. Netlava is probably scum.

Big Red X.


You can't say that a read was "solid given the context/information." That gives you license to "change your mind" based on "more information" at virtually any time of your choosing.

Unvote, Vote: kmd

for weasel-wording.

Well when one of my reads changes, I'm not going to keep pushing the original read.

[Kmd4390]

Ok, you voted with the same reasoning I used. I change my mind and you post this. What are you doing?

Just posting my reactions as I read along.

Reactions to just Mae?

[Kmd4390]

Well when one of my reads changes, I'm not going to keep pushing the original read.

If you think there's a reasonable chance that your read would change, you shouldn't use words like "solid" and "probably."[/quote]

It's more persuasive that way. And at the time, I was confident in the read.

You just stated that Netlava is "probably scum." Do you really think there is a greater-than-50%-chance that he is scum? If you are that certain, why aren't you kicking and screaming for his lynch? A

probable

scumlynch D1 is something that ANY town would take.

There's a greater than 50% chance that I'd pick him as scum now.

If we were to lynch now, I'd pick either Neto or Netlava. Of course it would be bad not to hear from some players before we lynch though.

[Kmd4390]

No, I believed the read to be accurate.

Please answer my question.

No, there isn't a 50% chance on anyone's alignment.

[Kmd4390]

Neto, I don't mean your theory talk. I mean your random vote.

[Kmd4390]

How is that changing my story? I said from the beginning that I didn't want to bandwagon. Everything that I have said has been internally consistent. You can disagree with my position, sure, but that doesn't mean that I'm changing my story.

I asked why you didn't bandwagon, you said it was because you don't like random voting.

You said you voted for no reason, then later said you used a random number generater.

Then you went on about theory and I stopped paying attention.

In your average 12-13 player game, there are 3-4 scums, which is 25-33%. If you are protown, then at the start of a game, any other player has a 25-33% chance of flipping scum if they were to be lynched immediately.

Yep.

You stated that a player (in this case, Netlava) is "probably scum." By its very definition, the word "probably" means that you believe there is a >50% chance that Netlava is scum.

See, I don't think about numbers and percentages when I use words like that. It's my way of saying that is my opinion. I don't know what would be a better word, but that's just semantics, so I'm sticking with that.

Now, there are two things that I want to know:
1) If I were to dayvig Netlava right now, do you think there is a greater-than-50% chance that he will flip scum? I want you to think about what that means before answering.
2) If the answer to the above is "yes, I do think there is a greater-than-50% chance that he will flip scum," why aren't you pushing his lynch?

1) No, not even close to 50%. Assuming it starts around 30%, there's maybe a 35% chance. I realize that odds say there is a good chance that I'm wrong on, what, two thirds of my reads? That's not going to stop me from trying to get my reads though.

2) Let's pretend for a second that I did answer "yes". I think it's important to get a look at every player. Some players haven't even posted yet. We aren't ready to lynch.

*claps slowly* Way to go - Saint is voting your town read and Haylen is voting with you. Bravo, bravo.

This post still gives me a bad vibe, though.

Are you going to say anything about anyone other than Mae?

Bull. Sounds more like attempted justification for things you already know.

FOS KMD

Why FoS when you don't have a vote out?

KMD was talking bigger than he actually thought

Meh, that's my playstyle. When you are confident, people follow you. When people follow you, you have more control over whether you win or lose the game.

[Kmd4390]

I asked you about theory? Prove it.

[Kmd4390]

@ kmd, why would you like having people following you on your reads...if you weren't sure of them?

I'm more sure of my reads than I am of anyone else's. Well, more sure that they are genuine anyway.

[Kmd4390]

If you hate random voting, why are you voting Maemuki?

What did you mean by your statement about the bandwagon?

The first question necessarily dictates a theoretical answer. I can't explain without going into theory...

That was game-specific. I was asking for your reasons for voting Mae.

[Kmd4390]

Incidentally, "I know I'm town" has failed to clear *anybody* of suspicion in any mafia game. It's a useful thing to remember, but as an argumentative point, it sucks.

I'm not asking to be cleared. I'm answering the question. I was asked why I want people following me. Well, that's why.

[Kmd4390]

Figures. Anyway. Would be leading the town a scumtell, kmd? Would be mislynching a person because you said so helpful for your (I'm assuming here) town win condition?

Leading the town isn't a tell one way or the other. It's a playstyle (or maybe personality trait, but meh).

And my reasons for voting Mae obviously had something to do with theory. Every vote on P1 is based on some sort of theoretical underpinning.

I don't think ALL of that theory talk was necessary to explain your vote.

[Kmd4390]

Unvote, Vote Netlava

[Kmd4390]

Why FoS when you don't have a vote out?

Since we see to be past the RVS stage, casting a vote is serious and needs reasons and stuff.

So far KMD, I'm only suspicious of you. That's not enough reason for a vote.

Why do you need strong reasons to cast one vote?

[Kmd4390]

Netlava has been around, but commented on basically nothing. All he's given is his opinions on you (Mae) and his reason for voting you mirrored my reason for suspecting you earlier. When I said you were town, he unvoted. Now he's going back to suspecting you, but with no reasons or vote.

Neto has pretty much explained himself. I don't expect to get much more out of him. I'm still suspicious of him, but there are better directions to turn my attention right now.

[Kmd4390]

And what's the vote count about right now?

No one is anywhere near a lynch. I think Neto has 3 votes? Mae has maybe 2. Netlava has 2 I think. Everyone else has 0 or 1.

[Kmd4390]

Neto, still leaning town on Saint.

[Kmd4390]

Neto, I don't see a problem with Saint's Netlava vote.

Camn's first post, exactly what I'd expect until the "only wearing my underwear" part.

Post 160, Ann looks like a possible Neto-buddy.

Neto, while I never respond well to pressure, I don't think there is a time in this game where I was ever "flailing".

Netlava, Post 170, it would be nice to hear your thoughts on some other players, not just Mae.

Neto, 172, so attacking you is poor play, but unvoting and turning my attention elsewhere is an improvement? Riiiiiiight.

Netlava, 185, do you find Haylen and Gayle scummy for joke posting? Why aren't you voting anyone (at the time. haven't finished reading, so maybe a vote comes later)? Ann, same question.

212, by Neto. I don't like it. At all.

Two questions for KMD: Going back to your early "four solid reads on Page 2" thing, I'm once again curious about your flip-flop on Mae. Your initial post was on Post 36. You had changed your mind regarding Mae by Post 60.

1) What caused that initial, misguided scum interpretation?
2) What caused you to change your mind about Mae?

1) The apology looked like she felt like she was expected to be here, which seems nervous. Nervousness is one of the things I look for at the beginning of a game. I caught a scum in confirmations that way, but the game is ongoing, so I won't be able to link it for maybe a week.
2) Her explanation made sense. If she is a known lurker, and was even asked about it by the Mod, it explains why she'd want to be here right at the start of the game and why she'd apologize for being a little slow to the thread and having to catch up a little. So the nervousness that I picked up wasn't "OMG hope they don't find out I got a scum PM", it was "Shit, now I might look like a lurker again".

Zach, 249, I gloat as town.

Glork, 255, I lol'd.

Mae, 260, town aren't always right. I don't expect Saint to vote scum every time if he's town. To 263, I don't "protect" anyone until I feel they are close to a lynch, and even then, it had better be a damn strong town read.

Unvote, Vote Netopalis

And since I wasn't here for the discussion, I live in Upstate New York where it is always cold and snowing and I'm just wearing my pants right now.

[Kmd4390]

Zach, I don't have the time to read games I'm not in.

Glork, parts of it made me laugh. Like the grades mailed to your parents comment.

[Kmd4390]

10) Wait, was there a Night 0 and I didn't notice? Good to know.

Yeah, I'm even more convinced Mae is town now.

[Kmd4390]

Neto, 273, I was looking around while I was voting you. I suspected Mae at the time and Netlava too. You should be able to find this in my post history if you look. I don't think I was ever tunneling.

Mae, question. Have you ever been scum before?

Gayle making a program looks like a newbtowntell to me.

Oh, and incidentally, Incognito, V/LA from roughly midnight tonight to 8 PM tomorrow. I'll be driving from WV to Georgia.

If one day is V/LA, I should have said something yesterday.

Zach in 326 makes my gut twitch a little.

On Neto vs El, Page 14, it's a playstyle dispute. Not necessarily a tell one way or the other on either player. El seems to get this. Neto doesn't. To be honest, the argument has me second guessing my read on Neto. Like he actually sees El as scum. But then again, he could be scum who is frustrated at being suspected and OMGUSing El. My mind is a mess trying to figure this out.

I can actually follow Netlava's thought process in 350. I don't agree with it, but I can follow it.

Still trying to figure out what's up with Netlava's obsession with Mae. Still like my vote on Neto. With 2 days to deadline and Neto's wagon being the leading wagon, at L-2, a claim some time soon would probably be appropriate.

[Kmd4390]

Good lord, it's only 12 pages. You should be able to finish it in like, 40 minutes? And that's for super slow readers.

The last 5 pages just took me around 45 minutes.

[Kmd4390]

Ann, I really don't think I ever tunneled in this game. Also, why does a Neto town flip make me scum? Why does a Neto scum flip make me "lucky"? Why is your read on Neto so wishy washy? If you are "thinking town", why vote him?

Plus.. I will get my thoughts together better over the weekend. This was the first week of school.. and it has caught me kind of by surprise With my luck I will probly be nightkilled.
If I am..... KMD IS SCUM.

Heh, last time I NK'd you, you were a possible lynch target and I lived to endgame. That amused me.

Glork, I see you just posted. What does a commuter do?

[Kmd4390]

Unvote

[Kmd4390]

So he's NK-Immune?

[Kmd4390]

Ok, I got it.

Hmm. I need a new place to put my vote.

Shit. I'm lost.

[Kmd4390]

Annachie - Cautious with votes, but opinions are out there. Gonna have to say town because the only thing I saw was the connection to Neto.
Haylen - The willingness to joke around actually looks like a towntell. Better Day 1 play than I'd expect from a scum Haylen. Town read.
SaintKerrigan -Clear, well explained opinions. Town read.
Netopalis -Town because of the claim.
camn - So far, Camn is...well, Camn. I usually don't peg her as scum on Day 1. This game is no different. If she's scum, I won't be catching her today.
Netlava - Weird obsession with Mae. Doesn't seem to want to talk about anyone else. Very weird. Not even sure what to make of it alignment-wise.
Bogre -Very under the radar, but not lurking. Not saying anything that draws much attention his way. It's like he's trying to hide. Scum read maybe?
Gayle -He's town because he made that program.
Glork -Very protown in questioning so far, but this is Glork we are talking about. If he's scum, he won't be easy to catch.
Zachrulez -Bandwagons out of the gate like he did as scum in Open 150-Crossfire, though he probably does it regardless of alignment. Most opinions seem to go with the town's general consensus.
Ellibereth - I like the playstyle. Xyl once said gut reads are hard to fake. Town read for now, but like Glork said, there is pressure for accuracy.
Maemuki- I've been over this. Mae is obvtown.

*Netopalis (5) <-~ Zachrulez, Ellibereth, Kmd4390, Glork, Haylen

1-2 scum are on this wagon. I know it's not me. I don't think it's Haylen. So Zach and maybe Eli or Glork.

Vote Zachrulez

[Kmd4390]

El,

I like to take notes as I go along. In order to make that easier, I've spent the last few minutes making a program to help me (seriously). And I've been going back to the end of the thread to look for new replies.

[Kmd4390]

Neto, have you seen a commuter in a game before? Had you heard of the role before this game?

[Kmd4390]

To everyone who unvoted Netopalis: Why did you unvote as soon as you got the claim?

Kmd: Not that I don't appreciate the town read, but how exactly have my opinions been clear and well-explained?

Because I believe the claim.

It's the feeling I get from your posts. Like you really believe what you are saying.

------------------

Haylen hasn't seen the claim yet I assume.

[Kmd4390]

camn,

Tracker

, killed Night 1

It wasn't me, I swear.

Ok, so the lynching wagon on Netlava was ridiculously scummy. His town flip means I'd be willing to bet on at least one scum on the lynch.

*Netlava (6) <-~ Maemuki, Netopalis, Yosarian2, Haylen, SaintKerrigan, Gayle

Mae is town. Neto is town. Haylen is town. Gayle is town. That leaves Yos and Saint. I'm still leaning town on Saint.

Vote Yos

Now to read Day 2.

[Kmd4390]

Yos cant be lynched cause he's a good townie.

Weren't you there when I was scum and got Yos lynched in LYLO in that Newbie game?

Ok, so Yos/Zach/Bogre scumteam. Got it. Oh, and my town read on Haylen is getting weaker.

[Kmd4390]

Bogre, Haylen looked town early Day 1. I'm no longer convinced. Gayle made that program to help him find scum. He's town. Zach was in serious danger of being lynched before Yos's idea to start a new wagon. So he's scum with Yos.

[Kmd4390]

So why is Neto town KMD?

His claim.

[Kmd4390]

That is lame.

So is your logic that I am scum with Yos.

He could have simply voted for Netopolis. Engineering a bandwagon with that little time is far from easy to do.

Meh, if the three of you were scum, bussing one of you may have been a better play.

Re Gayle: He -said- he made a program to find scum, have we actually seen it ?

I believe him.

Re Zach: Okay...do you feel that your view is supported by Yos's post-lynch actions? I agree that starting an alternate bandwagon is scummy, but I believe that Zach would still be a better candidate, because in either scenario Zach is still scum (and as St.Kerrigan suggests Yos as leader of the wagon is still in question):

Hmm. You make sense here, but you trying to shift my attention makes me uneasy.

Considering

NETO WAS SLATED TO BE LYNCHED, NOT ZACH

, your "Yos/Zach" pairing is completely backwards. If Yos wanted to "save Zach" all he had to do was NOT VOTE ZACH. Heck, he could have just voted Neto and that would have ensured that Neto would have been lynched. So the only way your Yos/Zach pairing works is if Neto is scum with BOTH of them, and he had to find a completely separate wagon to save them both.

Nobody started or pushed the Lavawagon to save Zach. It would have been to save Neto.

This is true. Hmm..

Question for Neto: Did you commute last night?

Tell the truth, now. Big Brother is watching.

Why do we want to know this?

[Kmd4390]

Question for Neto: Did you commute last night?

Tell the truth, now. Big Brother is watching.

Why do we want to know this?

We

might not. But I have my reasons, not least of which is mere curiosity.

Wait. I was about to post a whole "no, scum want to know more than town, I don't get why curiosity goes above that" post, but I think I actually want to know. I guess you could say I'm curious too.

[Kmd4390]

Hmm.

I've been thinking.

Neto as scum actually makes sense. I believed his claim initially because I saw that he was a newer player, but he confirmed that he already knew what a commuter was coming into the game.

Someone said it could explain later why he's still alive later. So the only way to take him out of the game will probably be to lynch him.

I don't think I disagree with a Neto lynch as much as I did before.

[Kmd4390]

*Shrug*

Why not.

Unvote, Vote Neto

[Kmd4390]

He posted yesterday.

[Kmd4390]

Did you guys think the game was balanced?
Were the deadlines a little

too

quick?
Would you play in a game like this again in the future?

Balance, yes.

Deadlines, near perfect.

If I keep playing mafia, which doesn't seem likely, this is exactly the kind of game I'd look for.

---------------

Haylen, you speculated on the Camn kill and didn't think that I was scum? How?

If I was scum, pretty sure I would have killed Glork.

I'd keep him alive like I did with you in that newbie game.

partners were fingered