Mini 917 -- Precision Mafia (Game Over)

[AlmasterGM]

Public Service Announcement:

Do not attempt to break the setup.

That is all.

[AlmasterGM]

No, i deliberately decided to vote.

Why?

[AlmasterGM]

Apparently, he wanted to waste his team's CP. Maybe because of recent rhetoric on the issue?

UnFoS; FoS: fifi

.

Well, if it's the former, he needs to die.

[AlmasterGM]

So he's either scum trying to look town, stupid scum, or stupid town.

Looks like a good R1 lynch to me.

[AlmasterGM]

Blah blah blah I'm going to speculate and try and break the probably unbreakable setup instead of scumhunt. I am probably scum.

Fixed.

[AlmasterGM]

I'm not trying to break the set up

What are you trying to do, then? The OBVIOUS thing-to-do is we conserve CP. Any other speculation seems like trying-to-break to me.

In my experience, people who get nervous about me doing so are more often scum than not.

In everybody else's experience, setup speculation and in place of scumhunting / IIoA is a scumtell.

And what is "your experience" anyway? One game? Care to provide links to any other games where you successfully gave the town optimal strat on D1?

A game that I was in called Cults of Darkness and Shadows just finished, and I was trying to do something similiar at the beginning of the game, discuss the differences. I was nearly lynched for it, then people realised that I wasn't scum, then I was NK'd because the scum thought my thoughts were dangerous. In Day 3, people were going back to my thoughts and using them to try and win.

1) Meta FTL.

2) Counterexample: A while back I was in a game called Stratego mafia. In lylo, the town tried to win off of setup instead of lynching scum. The town lost.

3) Either way, the point isn't that you can't speculate. It's that you are speculating

instead of scumhunting.

That is the scumtell. And don't give me the "It's pg 2" garbage. There has been content. You have ignored it.

[AlmasterGM]

I've said that I'm happy, so far, with a fifi lynch, there's not much to say on it other than voting off the cuff is obviously bad play, so fifi should die.

Cool.

Have anything other scumhunting to add?

No, of course not.

Have you done anything else other than say that you're happy with a fifi lynch? No.

What I've done:

Point out my thoughts and then agree with suscpions about fifi.

What you've done:
Agree with suspicions about fifi and give me hard time for not doing more than you.

1) I read this as "It's OK if I'm not scumhunting so long as you aren't either." Pretty bad defense, IMO.

2) You forgot to add "interrogate probable scum Seacore" under my list of accomplishments.

why is trying to break the setup bad?

Because you are going to fail on D1. It appears that RC has put substantial thought into this game. It has been reviewed by SpyreX. There is no way you will manage to crack the code this early. Now, if there's some obvious public service that needs to be pointed out, fine. But sitting around talking about optimal town strat INSTEAD of catching scum on D1 is a mistake.

stuff

more stuff

even more stuff

I like how you managed to do zero scumhunting in that spam of text. You also managed to completely avoid the actual argument/questions I had against you. Check out post 37, please.

[AlmasterGM]

I see no reason to delay this wagon.

Vote: The1fifi

[AlmasterGM]

Happy to pursue Fifi lynch today (it's not preferable to have VIs live too long), but if Fifi flips town I'd be even happier to pursue Almaster lynch tomorrow.

Why would fifi flipping town (which he probably won't) mean I'm likely to be scum?

Bloody hell, can we get over this "your trying to break the game" "na ah! YOUR trying to break the game" dispute? It's distracting my scumhunting. Seacore & AlmasterGM, stop bussing so hard.

It's not really a dispute so much as it is Seacore being scum. Even after the "dispute," all he's done is go, "LOL let me get on the obvwagon." But whatever floats your boat.

P.S. Your name is annoying as hell to manually quote.

k, i think that my mystake created a lot of fuss

@Cruciare: I am sorry about my English, but as you can see by my Location, I am Portuguese. I try my bet and i believe its understandable.

@Seacore: I read the set-up, i just didn't realize that wasting a vote would make such an impact on town points. I don't see a noob mistake pointing me as scum. As you said, its the only thing that happened! Isn't this the kind of situation scum enjoys, everyone focused on one player, so early on!?

@Almaster : You worry me. You post like 3 times, do no analyzis, and the only thing you actually do is "Yeh, kill him quick". You don't see a reason to "delay this wagon"? I take it from there you are 100% sure i am scum then.

Allow me to refresh your memory on the progression of events:

You: Vote.
Us: Why are you RVing when the setup clearly penalizes it? Mistake, right?
You: No, I did it intentionally.
Us: …

I seriously cannot think of a single excuse for this AT ALL. How could you NOT read the setup even after we questioned you on it the first time?

[AlmasterGM]

V/LA until Saturday evening.

Noted. Y'all don't have to say V/LA if it's just going to be for a day or two, but it is a nice thing to do.

[AlmasterGM]

Seriously, can we just lynch fifi already? We are sitting around and doing nothing. The only other alternative is this proposal that we make him burn his own CP. However, I think that is a stupid plan, as it would be easily countered by this rule:

In addition, each Commander unit is assigned an additional amount of bonus command points.

Unless we bank that fifi is the scum commander, which is a pretty big gamble on our part, we are unlikely to stop any scum night actions. That is probably why this rule exists in the first place - to stop us from breaking the game via this method.

More fifi votes, please. They fuel me.

[AlmasterGM]

So you are pushing for a fifi lynch? Well, if fifi didn't flip as town then I'd be more inclined to vote for you the next day.

What's the point of this post? Are you threatening me?

I never played with you. But your playstile scares me. Aren't you to eager to kill people? I don't see why people are all over me and no one cares about your posts, which are full with suspicious talk

Seriously, am I the only person on this site who doesn't like short days? I'm not at all comfortable with ending D1 at six pages, and I can't comprehend why people like you make an effort to ensure we get as little discussion time as possible. Some people (like me) have posted barely anything. Deadline is in two and a half weeks, why the hurry?

I've complacently been in games where D1 lasts 35 pages. I'm not predisposed to quickly lynching. I simply see no alternative to fifi, and thus no reason to delay votes. The discussion isn't really going anywhere, either - everything is about HOW we get rid of fifi and not WHETHER we should do so. Since I'm still in the camp that this attempt to manipulate the setup is going to result in megafail, I see nothing noteworthy going on.

But fine, let's talk about something else. People I think are scummy (other than fifi):

JR - lackluster performance thus far.
Seacore - started this stupid discussion about abusing CP.

Flawed arguement. The 'burning part' works perfectly. 10 points from fifi, and then if the NK still goes through, we can look to see who wasn't on the wagon and who conserved votes. Probscum will be there.

Um, what? First, everyone is conserving votes and those who aren't (fifi) are under strong suspicion, so this tell fails entirely. Second, it only takes 1 CP to vote, so there's no reason scum wouldn't be able to vote AND NK. I think you are strongly underestimating the setup's resilience to breakage. There is no way it will be this easy to crack.

It's even more absurd that you are willing to vote for me based off this. I guarantee there is at least one scum (if not all of them) actively endorsing this "pro-town" strategy because it is going to fall flat on its face and the scum are going to LOL.

We bank that Fifi is on a team that has a scum commander. Whether or not fifi is that commander is totally irrelevant.

How is it irrelevant? The commander will have a bonus pool of CP, and will thus be able to evade our attempt to drain the scum CP pool.

[AlmasterGM]

It was not a claim!!! It was irony! You are too dumb for this game

^an actual example of irony.

[AlmasterGM]

Seacore, I think you should claim.

[AlmasterGM]

There is an unbelievable amount of cause right now.

[AlmasterGM]

We bank that Fifi is on a team that has a scum commander. Whether or not fifi is that commander is totally irrelevant.

How is it irrelevant? The commander will have a bonus pool of CP, and will thus be able to evade our attempt to drain the scum CP pool.

Missed this. The pool is shared, it doesn't matter if fifi is the commander or one of his mafia compatriots is. We set the amount based on an assumption of one or two commanders.

It still only works if the cost of NK'ing is moderately high CP-wise. Otherwise, if fifi is not the commander, he will max out at spending 10 CP, and the scum commander will be able to use their bonus in order to execute the NK.

I think this CP burn plan would work a lot better once we've found the scum commander. That way, we know exactly how many CP they have remaining, and can thus deduce all of their actions. This presumes, of course, that there is only one scum commander. It is entirely possible there are multiple scum commanders and we are completely wasting our time here.

[AlmasterGM]

Also, we have to consider the penalties of using this plan. If fifi isn't scum, our PR's may not be able to take night actions. Is it really worth the risk of screwing over our PR's on N1 just so we can maybe-probaby-not deny the scum a NK?

[AlmasterGM]

@popsofctown - The use of town PR's cost command points. We don't know how many CP's the use of each role costs. The commander is only show the number of command points at the

end

of each night. Therefore, your plan does not work UNLESS we command all our PR's to stand down. Which would be stupid.

[AlmasterGM]

What if there are roles that only have 1-shot abilities? Then they have to waste them?

Either way, I don't like how Seacore went from being setup-break-happy to Mr Skeptic the moment it seemed like a break might actually work.

[AlmasterGM]

@pops - Fair enough, I suppose my immediate qualms are answered. However, we should keep in mind that 1) all we are getting out of this the equivalent of a cop investigation, not an auto-win or anything and 2) Our commander must claim if he "receives a guilty," and unless there is a doc around to protect him, he'll die after that, meaning no more bonus CP and no more "investigations."

@fhq - There are two unknown factors in CP calculation - number of scum and commander bonus. If these factors are solved, we will know exactly how many CP each team has. The scumteam will have no more than 6-9 CP. The max that can be spent per player per day is 10. Thus, we gain the ability to trade a boatload of CP for the equivalent of a cop investigation. This will work regardless of whether we have a commander around, too.

@Iec - What is your opinion of pop's proposal?

@Seacore - Your negative attitude does not match your positive attitude. E.g., you say "I'm all for breaking the setup, I just want to evaluate it," and then you give some terribad reason as to why it sucks and say, "yeah this plan just won't work." You don't try and offer a fix, either. This makes you suspect.

[AlmasterGM]

I just realized we can use this CP-burn plan multiple times per day. This could lead to some massive breakage if used correctly. For example, the town currently has 20-30ish CP. Lets say three players burn 5 extra CP each. If, according to the commander, the town is missing a bit more than 15 CP the next day, it means ALL THREE of those players are town. If we are missing less than 15 but more/around 10, one of the players is scum. And so on. Yes, this makes things a bit less definite than forcing one player to burn at a time, but if it works, the results would be killer. THREE confirmed townies? Yes, please.

[AlmasterGM]

However, the remaining command points in the party's pool will be shown privately to all Commander units at the end of every night phase (before the next day's points are replenished)

[AlmasterGM]

Well, we have to lynch somebody today before we get the results of the plan (commander units get their data at the end of every night), so I say we lynch fifi today (he's the most likely to be scum and the VI if he's town) and pick three different targets to use the CP plan on.

Amazing. That almost seems too good to be true.

I am very afraid of this ... but I have to admit, it seems to work.

[AlmasterGM]

Why would we wait until tomorrow to do this when we can start now?

AFA Number 7 goes, I think it depends on how good our commander feels they are at breadcrumbing. If they feel skilled, then they should remain silent and leave us a clue so they can bag another three "investigations" the next night whilst still retaining the knowledge from the first night. If they think they are going to fuck it up, then they should just claim it right away.

[AlmasterGM]

The lack of J.R in this thread is really beginning to irk me.

[AlmasterGM]

Seacore, are you a protown power role?

[AlmasterGM]

I am a daykilling Vigilantie.

[AlmasterGM]

I am a daykilling Vigilantie.

So you're asking me to claim, or you're going to kill me?

I might kill you even if you do claim, but a claim can't hurt.

[AlmasterGM]

Shoot: Seacore.

[AlmasterGM]

@Fate - How do you know my Seacore shot is bad? You are next in line to be shot.

[AlmasterGM]

I like ma shot.

[AlmasterGM]

Um, fine, I'll burn, but it seems stupid to make me do that IMO. Unless you think I'm a daytime SK playing some huge gambit, doesn't the fact that Seacore just died mean I wasn't lying?

[AlmasterGM]

If I burn, who would the second burner be?

[AlmasterGM]

So we are spending our ONLY D1 burn to verify that I am not in fact daykilling scum, despite that the odds of this actually being true are microscopic.

And then I will die, because the mafia know I am not going to flip scum, and will thus kill me just like they would kill a townie confirmed by a cop.

This makes soooooo little sense. Minimally, we should have someone else burning too so the mafia don't just get a gimme on taking out a town PR.

[AlmasterGM]

I'll shoot with the town.

[AlmasterGM]

Burn - Iecrint
Lynch - fifi

[AlmasterGM]

Mmmmmmm semantics.

[AlmasterGM]

Eh, it wasn't that special. A good memory I had with my girlfriend, but not something I 'prepared' for for weeks or anything...

Are the votes in yet? What do we do now, oh setup wizards?

Maybe this is why it wasn't very special for you.

[AlmasterGM]

Yeah, seriously, what is going on in this game? Are we waiting for something?

[AlmasterGM]

Finish him!

Town wins!

(Metaphorically, that is).

[AlmasterGM]

The Town of Precision Mafia: Catching scum on Day 1, Page 1 since 2010.

Anyway, I'm not scum, so fifi clearly isn't completely mentally incapacitated. AFA burning Cruciare goes, I think it's a bad play. As evidenced by fifi's self-vote, the scum clearly want this round's burn plan to fail, so letting them manipulate the targets seems like a Very Bad Idea.

I think we should stick with Iecrint.

[AlmasterGM]

I'm the one who picked out fifi early game. If you think I was distancing or whatever, that's fine, but it's not as if I tried to derail the wagon after it became popular.

No offense, but "I stayed on the fifi wagon" isn't exactly evidence of township. The man was obvscum. Either way, though, I guess I can accept a Cruciare burn if everyone is game for that. He is playing Mr Lurk.

[AlmasterGM]

Given fifi's actions, I still don't consider that incredibly compelling. Sure, you spat out the first FoS, but shit was going to hit the fan either way, and you know it. Other people were on him too. That being said, I don't have some compelling case against you or anything, and I never claimed to. Here is how I see things:

There are three types of reads.

Town <-- Trust
No read <-- Burn
Scum <--Lynch

The middle category is the most dangerous. I think you are in that category. Thus, I think you should burn so I can move you into one of the other two.

[AlmasterGM]

If you want readless players to burn (not a bad strategy, though I'd prefer probablescum>readless>likelyscum>town>obvscum), you should have lurkers and jokers burn. I account for 18% of the posts in this game. I have given you relatively more data from which to construct a read.

If I get my way, we will be lynching the lurkers and jokers. Why should we waste a burn on them? If they flip town, all we've done is confirm that we have some useless fluff sitting around. They can die. You, on the other hand, account for "18% of the posts in the game." Knowing whether you are town or scum will be very useful.

Your defense, Iecerint, hinders solely on the fact that f1f1 is scum.

Have you been reading the thread?

[AlmasterGM]

Interestingly, he doesn't seem to be here.

[AlmasterGM]

OK NOW ALMASTER GETS TO BURN!

[AlmasterGM]

I OBJECT.

[AlmasterGM]

Lol this game is so stupid.

[AlmasterGM]

please care about the game almaster. it makes you easier to read.

Oh, I care, but look at the state of affairs right now. There's nothing to do but sit around and wait for Cruciare to come back. When/if he does show, he'll probably argue with our plan some more and then disappear again. And it may all be for nothing!

[AlmasterGM]

I am not posting cause I am scum and have been caught

Fixed.

[AlmasterGM]

Nice play, Cruciare. We're 4 days until the deadline ... Run out the clock some MOAR!

[AlmasterGM]

Vote: deadline extension

[AlmasterGM]

You know, it would actually be REALLY funny if Fifi didn't flip scum.

[AlmasterGM]

Hammer. Nao.

[AlmasterGM]

*points a finger at Almaster*

MURDERER

*Shrug* I do what I can.

[AlmasterGM]

Actually, I was a one-shot vigilante. I have no further shots. I am now effectively VT.

[AlmasterGM]

@pops - Vig's are pretty powerful. I hoped the mafia would use their NK on me (an effective vanilla townie) so our other PR's would be protected. Obviously, they did not take the bait.

@bv - I have never played as Vig before, I didn't want to sit around lest I lose my shot, Seacore seemed like a reasonable target, and so I used it. You can call it a bad move all you want, but what's done is done.

@ fate - your FOS is extremely hot-tempered and not well-thought out. The mafia NK'd last night. That means you are proposing that I am either "Mafia-with-multiple-kills-per-round, some of which are daykills" or "Daykilling serial killer who can choose whether to kill or not and is revealed as the shooter." Both of these possibilities are ludicrous - the probabilities of them existing in a game that appears to be pretty normal (e.g., no bastard modding) are practically zero. Be logical.

[AlmasterGM]

Well it seems a little fishy that they didn't take the bate.

*bait.

And yes, clearly.

Anyway, content-wise (woah, when was the last time anyone mentioned that!) McGriddle and JR's posts yesterday were of pretty poor quality.

[AlmasterGM]

OMGUS after I placed suspicion on you.

It's fishy from our POV, you are obviously not town-aligned. Why wouldn't scum want to kill you?

It's not OMGUS because your posts are actually bad (I iso'd and half of them were just like, "lol sup guyz") and your suspicion of me is entirely unfounded. It has NOTHING to do with actual play and is predicated entirely on my Seacore shot, which makes me prob-town not prob-scum (once again, refer to the two possibilities for me as scum, they are both outlandish).

[AlmasterGM]

get your hands off me etc
almaster, please post a bolded kill action in-thread to prove you were 1-shot

Shoot: Colbalt

After you see that I am telling the truth, what are your opinions on everyone else in the game?

[AlmasterGM]

I don't like Fate's eagerness to burn. Something is afoot.

[AlmasterGM]

God, I love this game. We are definitely following The Plan today. We have breathing room, so if it fails, we know to stop relying on it entirely in the future. If it succeeds, then ka-ching ka-ching.

[AlmasterGM]

Hi, I am not scum. Thank you for your understanding.

[AlmasterGM]

bv, plx burn kthnx

[AlmasterGM]

I agree with Elscouta's plan.

Vote: popsofctown

[AlmasterGM]

V/LA until wednesday.

Noted.

[AlmasterGM]

I just read Colbalt in iso and got the urge to lynch him.

[AlmasterGM]

le sigh

Shoot: Fate

ZOMG EVERY-OTHER-DAY-KILLING-SK PEWPEW!!!!!!1

jk

[AlmasterGM]

I am waiting for content from our replacement, who replaced someone who didn't talk, who replaced someone who didn't talk.

Yeah.

[AlmasterGM]

Alma and Fate: ???

I mean, yeah I'm glad you are all eagerly waiting for me and my input, but beside me there are 4 other players here, and I don't believe you don't have any topic to discuss. Don't use me as a convenient excuse to stall the game, k?

Finished reading D1, and Imma going to get some popcorn before I see how this all CP burning plan went

Um, no. You are replacing a slot that has hardly talked at ALL for the entire course of the game. If you don't start talking, you are going to go bye-bye because everybody else here has contributed.

[AlmasterGM]

I just re-read McGriddle and this really stuck out at me:

Velcome to ze game. I am willing to give up the whole burn CP thing and just play the game like we normally do, except more conservatively.

I might buy into Fate and Col's arguments.

[AlmasterGM]

How do we know that this "private" role isn't entirely fabricated and it doesn't exist at all? After all, you didn't actually hand us any scum or town and we can't really verify your role.

[AlmasterGM]

The only thing that keeps popping into my head is McGriddle's claim makes a lot of sense. We don't have any other investigative roles as far as I can see, and having a role that would find commanders would fit right into this game. I suppose he could be on the scumteam as an investigative role, but damn, that's a powerful role. Unless RC predicted we'd figure out a way to break the system, thus eseentially making our two commanders cops ...

/outguess mod. My brain hurts. That friggin triple kill really burned us.

[AlmasterGM]

gg mafia.