Pick Your Power II - Looks like the wine is gone (SCUM WIN)

[Hoopla]

fos: socrates & fate

for winning the draft with singular numbers.

[Hoopla]

Let's save the speculation on which numbers the mafia picked until later. It sucks as a game starter, because scum are just as good as town at strategic type arguments, but people get stuck on proving their theory and end up omgus'ing and voting based on bs. Then once that talk is exhausted, there isn't anything real to go on, and the game stymies.

Vote:Tony Montana

for picking (1,1) in the draft = mafia

But it's obvious that four scum wouldn't

all

pick 1 or 6 as their X number. The risk of leaving the town with too many powerful roles is too high. Therefore singular and doubled numbers have the greatest chances of containing scum.

Kind of weird you're voting based on numbers (even if it's silly).

[Hoopla]

What are you talking about? Were we supposed to pick numbers?

vote: Hoopla

obvscum, my vote isn't moving.

I don't understand your question.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, Hoopla, Hoopla, if there is anything that Mayor mafia should have taught you its that mafia are absolutely terrified of sticking out in any way, and are much more at home in the crowd.

The scum doubled up on one of their picks, mark my words.

Even if that is true, it still lowers the people in brackets of 4's chances of being scum. I doubt scum would want to double up more than once though, because they basically screw themself over with shitty picks.

I hope I don't hear any of that 'speculation, wifom!' nonsense, because number analysis will be a VERY viable method of catching scum, because we know there are certain things they won't do.

[Hoopla]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 12

Hoopla

- 1 - Porkens - (L-11)

Jack

- 1 - Cobalt - (L-11)

Socrates

- 1 - StrangerCoug - (L-11)

TonyMontana

- 1 - Jack - (L-11)

Players not voting: Bouncy.Bouncy, curiouskarmadog, Devotress, DocPotter, Dramonic, Ellibereth, Faraday, Farside, Fate, FeFiFoFum, Hoopla, Pomegranate, Rayfrost, RedCoyote, Socrates, The1fifi, TonyMontana, wolframnhart

Do we have any reason to believe scum had the possibility to actually communicate legally before sending their draft/role?

The Draft:[/b]

Once the order is done, you will then straight down the list attempt to pick a power role.

If someone above you on the list has picked that role you will be vanilla.

Note: The mafia will be able to talk before the draft begins for a period of approximately 24 hours.

Although, I'd normally be skeptical about someone making statements like that (a similar one is, 'oh I didn't know scum could daytalk' ), this seems genuine.

[Hoopla]

vote: jack

answer the question

Why'd you pick 4,6 as your numbers?

[Hoopla]

small numbers, higher draft choice, get PR, be happy, rock out

Do you think scum would have deliberately chosen to double up on a number somewhere to distance, or spread their choices over 5 different X numbers to improve their chances at better roles?

[Hoopla]

small numbers, higher draft choice, get PR, be happy, rock out

Do you think scum would have deliberately chosen to double up on a number somewhere to distance, or spread their choices over 5 different X numbers to improve their chances at better roles?

spreading seems possible, depends on how they think things'll go down and such, so yeh.

dunno.

either seem plausible.

What would you do if you were scum organising your team?

[Hoopla]

Do we have any reason to believe scum had the possibility to actually communicate legally before sending their draft/role?

This. I must have missed a rule... IIRC, he said we would all get a PM with our alignment, and then have to send back a reply with the picks.

Does alignment include list of team members? Hmmm... Any scum want to claim and tell us?

In contrast to dramonic's (seemingly genuine) clueless response about the drafting system, this seems like Fate is piggybacking on this mindset to look town. The lame, forced question at the end quantifies this, and just looks like unnecessary words to fill a post that might otherwise had stood out.

Vote: Fate

For being a singular number, too.

[Hoopla]

People who are rejecting the concept of number analysis are idiots. It is as much wifom as vote/wagon analysis and other mainstream scumhunting techniques.

We know scum were able to coordinate before/during the draft (despite a few people pleading ignorance to this, some genuine, some probably not). Lets think about it logically though. Some people are trying to sweep this under the wifom rug, and although there are options for scum to take, some are illogical and detrimental to scum's win condition.

Optimum scum strategy is to spread your numbers across 5 different X values, and try to pick up as many of the powerful roles as possible. This is probably the easiest way to cripple the town, by getting power on your side. However, scum may suspect town will figure out what their optimum strategy is, which lowers the effectiveness, and in turn scum may choose to throw the town off. However, there is only so far they can go, before giving too many roles to the town is a negative net result for them.

The good news for town is, we can already pick out unlikely combinations of scumpairs/teams based purely on numbers. At the very most scum would have doubled numbers once - any more than that leaves them too far down the draft. And frankly, if they have done that I'm thrilled because our roles will probably catch them before they can the reap the benefits of illogical number partners.

Right now, the best assumption is that scum have spread across at least four different X numbers. The beauty of this is, if we can keep groups of 3/4 players alive, we have a solid chunk of

probably

town players. This forces scum to kill in these pools, the places where our good roles probably aren't.

Trust me, number analysis will win this game for us.

[Hoopla]

Right now, the best assumption is that scum have spread across at least four different X numbers.

The beauty of this is, if we can keep groups of 3/4 players alive, we have a solid chunk of

probably

town players.

This forces scum to kill in these pools, the places where our good roles probably aren't.

This might read ambiguously. I meant, if we keep groups of 3/4 players

with the same

number alive, it means there will always be mostly town there.

[Hoopla]

uh, did you play the last game?

No, but I skimmed it. The difference between that game and this one, is that scum

weren't

able to coordinate during the draft.

[Hoopla]

So if two flip scum the third is automatically cleared? Call me a purist, but I rather rely on other, more traditional techniques. Instead of "follow the numbers." Also, if one of the "doubled up teams" (Pomegranate+Faraday, WRM+fifi, etc.) flips scum, we're supposed to grill the other one?

You're not a purist. You're a drone incapable of applying critical thinking to a game of mafia - using wiki tells isn't playing mafia.

This game is a unique concept, rich with juicy information just ripe to be analysed, and you want to throw it away?

Assumptions are bad. If someone flips scum in the (1, 1) group, should we lynch you based on your own policy? What about the other pairs?

Again, I hate to break it to you, but your 'traditional scumhunting techniques' are based entirely on assumptions. Traditional concepts, such as bussing, stem entirely from guessing games back and forth between optimum scum strategy, and what town

thinks

optimum scum strategy is. Number choices are no different - you've just not encountered them before, and refuse to use your brain to figure it out and make rational predictions.

Another problem is that "optimum scum strategy" is the

same

as optimum town strategy. I picked numbers I didn't think anyone else would pick, worked out pretty well for me.

But scum have the advantage of

knowing

five sets of numbers before they enter, which can dramatically improve their chances of winning, or placing better overall compared to a random sample of five townies.

[Hoopla]

To respond to a couple of your questions;

1) If someone flips scum in the (1, 1) group, should we lynch you based on your own policy? What about the other pairs?

2) You really think scum is going to shoot 'probable townies' (based only off number choices, I might add) in lieu of probable power roles?

1) No, the opposite. As it means it's highly like the players in the '1' group are town. This is based on scum not having 2+ of their members bid the same number. I maintain, that scum will have spread their numbers across 4 (probably 5) different X numbers.

But I want to ask what you think. As scum, would you deliberately bid the same number as a teammate? How would you organise your team's number choices? Because you know if you picked the same numbers, it's automatically going to ruin your chances of good roles. Do you think it's likely scum doubled somewhere? Or they are spread across 5 different numbers?

2) If they were smart, yes. This would be a pretty bad situation to be stuck in for them (the result of going after the singular/doubles);

StrangerCoug (3,1)
The1fifi (3,7)
wolframnhart (3,7)
Devotress (8,3)
Porkens (8,9)
DocPotter (8,10)
Ellibereth (1,2)
Dramonic (1,1)
Hoopla (1,1)
TonyMontana (1,1)
Farside (6,3)
curiouskarmadog (6,12)
Pomegranate (6,4)

Town could easily eliminate A LOT of possible scumteams if there are fewer brackets of numbers. I repeat, the scum WON'T be in the same 2-3 numbers.

[Hoopla]

I don't get how the whole number thing applies

now

. Can someone explain it to me like I'm an idiot?

It applies now because we don't have any other information to work with. We don't have wagons/votes to analyse yet or any confirmed alignments. Number analysis eclipses an unnecessary RVS.

The facts are, singulars/doubles have the highest chance of being scum due to scum

probably

spreading their choices over 4+ different X numbers. The only way this point can be disputed is if you think it's likelier scum would have bid the same 2-3 X numbers. And if so, I'd like to hear your logic behind that.

Do you have any thoughts on the number issue?

[Hoopla]

We have a wagon on Fate.
I get that it's most likely that scum are on the single numbers, but that doesn't reduce the list by that much anyway.
I'm curious why you lied about your picks in the signup thread.

Only about the Y number which doesn't count for very much of your chances of a high pick. My tactic was to come in and claim '1' early to scare everyone off it (an assumption based on nobody wanting to sacrifice their own draft position). However, most people didn't understand the system or probably submitted their numbers before reading my post.

[Hoopla]

Jack, I think you're taking my words too literally. There are never times when you have 'no' information. You always start a game with knowledge of a player, your role and the previous posts. I'm stating that numbers are a primary source of information - they should hold more importance than whatever scumtell you can generate from a few pages of voting.

Thank you for conveniently cutting out the bit about numbers from that quote you posted of mine, to make it look like

that

was my sole reasoning for my vote.

[Hoopla]

Thank you for conveniently cutting out the bit about numbers from that quote you posted of mine, to make it look like

that

was my sole reasoning for my vote.

Simulpost. So you admit you really did vote me for being a singular number? I was hoping that was a last bit "RVS' joke...

It was a combination of reasons. I will likely want to lynch you or Socrates or a double today, and will probably pick the scummiest one of that set of players (barring significant slips from low draft picks). You are currently the scummiest of that set, for reasons outside number analysis.

[Hoopla]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 12

Bouncy.Bouncy

- 2 - RedCoyote, Farside - (L-10)

Dramonic

- 1 - TonyMontana - (L-11)

Fate

- 9 - Hoopla, Socrates, Ellibereth, Cobalt, Bouncy.Bouncy, Porkens, Faraday, Devotress, The1fifi - (L-3)

Hoopla

- 1 - Jack - (L-11)

Jack

- 3 - Rayfrost, StrangerCoug, wolframnhart - (L-9)

The1fifi

- 1 - Fate - (L-11)

wolframnhart

- 1 - curiouskarmadog - (L-11)

Players not voting: DocPotter, Dramonic, FeFiFoFum, Pomegranate

I would definitely not pick the same number as my teammates. That is what I would do, but I don't know what scum in

this

game has done. Maybe they did spread their choices out, maybe they did double up. But people are selfish, who is going to agree "sure I'll double up and likely not get a role." Also the fact that they only had so much time to choose their numbers, I don't know if they debated the issue enough.

It would take a mature mindset to be willing to sacrifice your chance at a role, to be hidden from number analysis. But is it even worth it for scum? As scum, you cannot afford to let town get many of the good roles by trying to get cute.

Perhaps a more visual approach to my theory would be helpful;

We have 9 sets of numbers, yes?

1) Socrates
2) Fate
3) bouncy.bouncy, Cobalt
4) RayFrost, Redcoyote
5) Jack, FeFiFoFum
6) StrangerCoug, The1fifi, wolframnhart
7) Devotress, Porkens, DocPotter
8) Ellibereth, Dramonic, Hoopla, TonyMontana
9) Farside, curiouskarmadog, Pomegranate, Faraday

Now, there is a good chance, that 5 of those 9 groups contain one scum each. An outside chance that only 4 of those groups contain scum, but one group has two. But for the sake of this exercise, lets assume it's best case scenario for town, and scum decided to spread themselves across 5 different numbers.

There is little logical reason to try for a lynch in Group 8 or Group 9. At best there is a 25% chance of a scum lynch, and a decent chance none are there at all. Groups 6 and 7 are slightly better, but again, if we go higher up the list, we have better chances of hitting in smaller groups.

The beauty of this is,

if

scum spread their choices across 5 different numbers, each group has equal chances of containing

a

scum. Basically, a better than 50/50 shot that a group has a scum in it. So by lynching Fate or Socrates, we have a ~50/50 shot of scum being in that group, but because they're the only ones in that group, it is 100% going to be them. As opposed to a 25% chance in a Group 8 or 9 lynch.

Even if scum have doubled up once, the same principal applies (higher up the list, the scummier), but with slightly weaker odds. But really, from reactions of the questions I've asked others about what they'd do as scum, I think it is more than likely than scum are in fact in 5 different groups (which is such a good position for town to be in)!

[Hoopla]

Wow, you're serious? I found a contradiction ladies and gentlemen:

The good news for town is, we can already pick out unlikely combinations of scumpairs/teams based purely on numbers. At the very most scum would have doubled numbers once - any more than that leaves them too far down the draft. And frankly, if they have done that I'm thrilled because our roles will probably catch them before they can the reap the benefits of illogical number partners.

I've changed my mind, based on the sheer ignorance of the town towards the numbers system. Multiple people haven't understood the draft, multiple people think this is wifom territory and not worth touching, and multiple people seem clueless when it comes to even thinking about number analysis. See post 102 for the latest example.

I now doubt scum would have doubled up - and if they have, they shouldn't have because the town is too closed minded to attempt catching them in this way.

Yet you yourself just advocated lynching either Socrates or myself, who are the probably the ones with roles most beneficial to town.

Yeah, that scum vig or bomb is really beneficial!

[Hoopla]

Hoopla why are you ignoring this group in your number analysis?

Socrates (12,1)
Fate (13,4)
bouncy.bouncy (2,1)
Cobalt (2,10)
RayFrost (4,6)
Redcoyote (4,9)
Jack (7,2)
FeFiFoFum (7,11)

I'm not. I think you're missing the point of that post. I was showing what would happen if we took out the top drafted players (scum won't do that), because it leaves the players I listed before. Which makes potential scumpairs easier to spot.

See my post 100 for a more rounded view of my opinions.

[Hoopla]

I'm going to treat the number thing like meta, i.e. it can help a case but behavior in thread is still numero uno.

That's about the best I can hope for, although I will personally be putting more emphasis on number analysis in my cases.

[Hoopla]

Someone brought up Vengeful townie in relation to Fate. Is there a good case for scum to take it?

It's basically like a one-shot guarenteed vig shot for scum. The only way they don't get to use this power is if that scum is vigged themself - but there is a chance the vigilante is scum, which means double scum kills. I really think we need to keep an eye on the secondry kill choices to assess if we think the vig is town or scum, because allowing scum double kills for 3+ nights will screw us over badly.

[Hoopla]

I'm kinda thinking that the nine groups are kinda like neighbourhoods. I know they can't communicate or such but, some will contain no scum, some one scum, maybe one with two scum.

Not a reason to vote for somebody, but a reason to study groups carefully.

This is kind of true, and I want to try and explain my point one more time before I give up, because I think people don't understand my posts very well.

~~

The X number determines what group (or neighbourhood) you're placed in. At the very least, I think almost all of us have agreed, at the very least scum are on 4 different X numbers (with the possibility of 5).

Because the scum couldn't know what town picked, they don't know how many groups of what size there will be. They can only control how many groups they want to be in.

If there is scum in 4 X groups, this gives each

group

a 4/9 chance of having scum in it. If there is a scum in 5 different groups, each

group

has a 5/9 of having a scum in it. Therefore, it is logical to lynch from the smallest group if all groups have equal chance of having

a

scum in it.

~~

An example assuming scum are in 4 different groups;

Group 1; 4/9 chance of a scum being here. Then, a 1/1 chance it is Socrates (~44%)
Group 9; 4/9 chance of a scum being here. Then, a 1/4 chance it is Faraday (~11%) (Though there is a slim chance the double up is here, which makes it hard to calculate, but I would put it at no more than a 5% increase)

An example assuming scum are in 5 different groups;

Group 2; 5/9 chance of a scum being here. Then, a 1/1 chance it is Fate (~56%)
Group 8; 5/9 chance of a scum being here. Then, a 1/4 chance it is TonyMontanna (~14%)


The only way this is not correct is if scum have tripled up somewhere, or doubled twice (meaning their numbers are in only 2/3 groups). You must prove this is a viable possibility for scum before disputing my numbers (wifom is not an accepted answer).

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, assuming I agree with your post 137, which I conceptually do, how do you propose we choose which groups (or neighborhoods) have scum in them? I mean, is Socrates right? Do you really propose we lynch straight down the list until we hit paydirt?

Each group has equal chances of containing

a

scum, as scum can't know what numbers town would have selected. However, the less amount of people in the group, the less places that scum could be (if there is a scum in the group). Ideally I'd like to lynch singulars/doubles until we've found two scum, and then assess the game from there, but I know nobody here wants to delve into the wonderful world of numbers.

I think the most realistic option we have to bring us closer to playing optimally, is lynch only today based on numbers. On Day 2 we have role information, alignment flips, vote analysis and other reliable sources of information available. Number analysis should still be used, but it may take the backseat to everything else, which I'm fine with. For now, we should lynch the scummiest (in the

traditional

way) singlular/double.

Today we have a ~50 chance of hitting scum if we go for Socrates or Fate. Number analysis gives us these odds, but nobody wants to play them. Do people really value their own scumhunting abilities

that

much, that they'd rather lynch in a traditional manner, and have a maybe 20% of hitting scum? Let it be known, I have a bleak view of Day 1 normally, and believe it is a lot more random than some think. But in this game, we actually have information to start with! I'm so frustrated nobody wants to use it. You can do your iso-whatevers, buddying tells, wagon analysis etc tomorrow when that information surfaces, but now, numbers are our best option.

[Hoopla]

We actually have a 4.5% chance of hitting scum, if anyone was wondering.

There are plenty of people who want to lynch fate though(me), but your numbers case is bad. You're overblowing the numbers way too much, and you're doing the fate wagon no favours with all this numbers talk. No matter how many percent chances you decide to make up(and making up IS what you are doing with "50%"), it just sounds like you're trying to justify lynching all power roles.

Do you understand my logic in post 137? If you don't, I will try and betterly explain it for you. If you do, please tell me where my logic fails, and you get the impression I'm making it up.

[Hoopla]

Do you understand my logic in post 137? If you don't, I will try and betterly explain it for you. If you do, please tell me where my logic fails, and you get the impression I'm making it up.

Your logic doesn't fail(though I personally don't want to lynch that way), and I see where you're coming from. It fails when you start to call it a mathematical statistic. It isn't. It's based on an assumption of an unproven theory. The theory can be sound and accurate, but when you start assigning math to it you're making stuff up. Any number you assign to it other than 4.5% is wrong.


You get what I mean?

In the theory I illustrated the only unproven assumption is the scum are on 4 or 5 X numbers. If that is true, then there is no other variable, and the numbers are reliable. However, I stated this at the end of my post;

The only way this is not correct is if scum have tripled up somewhere, or doubled twice (meaning their numbers are in only 2/3 groups). You must prove this is a viable possibility for scum before disputing my numbers (wifom is not an accepted answer).

This says the numbers are different if scum are in only 2/3 sets of X values, which I deem very slim, as it is an illogical, nonsense gambit for scum to even consider, as it guarentees very low draft picks.

In the slim chance scum have done just this, the town has enough potent roles to compensate for a D1 numbers based lynch. If the scum are on 4/5 X numbers, then my percentages are correct, and not a lie.

I see where you are coming from though. They are numbers based on an assumption. But in this assumption, the numbers are truthful. I guess it depends on how likely you deem this assumption to be. If it is highly likely to be true, doesn't it make it worthwhile to pursue such good odds on D1?

~~

Do you think scum have doubled up? Would you have suggested doing as scum? What about tripling up? How many different X numbers do you think scum chose?

[Hoopla]

All the posts with number strategies percentages and whatever are annoying the hell out of me.
I'll muck my way through it tomorrow and post something real tomorrow. It's my impression (and correct me if I'm wrong), that not too many people actually care about all the number/strategy/whatever stuff, so stop posting it and clogging the thread kthx.

That's a shame you don't want to use your brain, when it is the most important information we have.

~~

Pom, the numbers are accurate;

If scum are spread 1-1-1-1-1 over five different numbers, then Socrates and Fate have a ~56% chance each of being scum.

If scum are spread 1-1-1-2 over four different numbers, then Socrates and Fate have a ~44% chance each of being scum.

They have lower odds for combinations like 1-2-2 and 1-1-3 etc, which should be considered if you think it's a realistic possibility scum would do it. However, this quote suggests you don't think that;

I would be extremely surprised if scum decided to all pick the same numbers- getting PRs is better for them than having that defense.

Which is a good point, but contradicts being against the numbers. Because the numbers for 1-1-1-1-1 and 1-1-1-2 are solid.

[Hoopla]

I don't think it's good play this early to force a claim from the 2nd drafter. Are we going to lynch him if he claims one of the top roles? No.

The risk is (generally) relative when it comes to lynching a claimed powerrole, as roles aren't in anyway related to alignment. You have to weigh up the value that role has for town, and then for scum. If it favours scum, or is neutral, then it isn't a bad lynch. Remember, they will only be in the position to claim if they are the scummiest player in the game.

Some examples;

The consensus decides Z is the scummiest in the game. Z claims vig - it is worth lynching as extra town kills aren't worth the possibility of scum having double kills. That is such a ridiculously powerful ability that can cripples towns so quickly.

The consensus decides Y is the scummiest in the game. Y claims cop - it is probably not worth lynching as it's town value is far better than it's scum value (nothing).

The consensus decides X is the scummiest in the game. X claims Governor - it is definitely worth lynching as it has so much more scum value than town. Preventing lynches deprives town of information, and gives scum another free nightkill. The only town motivation is preventing scum from having this role, but it is not worth the risk of leaving a potential scum governor alive.

[Hoopla]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 12

Bouncy.Bouncy

- 3 - RedCoyote, Farside, Fate - (L-9)

Dramonic

- 1 - TonyMontana - (L-11)

Fate

- 9 - Hoopla, Ellibereth, Cobalt, Bouncy.Bouncy, Porkens, Faraday, Devotress, The1fifi, Socrates - (L-3)

Hoopla

- 1 - Pomegranate - (L-11)

Jack

- 2 - Rayfrost, wolframnhart - (L-10)

Socrates

- 1 - StrangerCoug - (L-11)

wolframnhart

- 2 - curiouskarmadog, Jack - (L-10)

Players not voting: DocPotter, Dramonic, Fate, FeFiFoFum

^For the record, are you saying you want to see me put at L-1 and claim, Hoopla?

At the moment, I want to lynch you over Socrates, and any of the doubles. I only want a claim if there is enough town support for your lynch (that means L-1 and at least one person prepared to hammer). Please don't claim before then.

[Hoopla]

I clarified it in the following post. I just meant that it seems as though people are opening up to Hoopla's plan, because I certainly do not see any other reason for Fate's wagon to be as large as it is. There was no scumslip, so far as I can tell.

Scum are scared of the numbers and are bussing Fate hard. Either that, or they're wagoning Fate to protect Socrates - I haven't come to a definite conclusion just yet. Either way, I agree that the speed of this wagon implies there is quite probably a decent amount of scum on it. I hope it's because of bussing.

~~

A sidenote; it's funny how all the people wanting to do traditional scumhunting aren't really doing much of it at all.

[Hoopla]

First off, this is bullshit. "Scared of numbers?" Scum are bussing me hard? Because the "slip" I made (what was that again? I don't remember because I'm not scum in the first place).

Why would scum buss their (most likely, unless you want to think both Socrates and I are scum) TOP draft choice?

Answer that, please.

I agree with you - I think multiple scum are probably on your wagon. If you're being bussed, it is probably later in the wagon after it's gathered enough steam to be viable. This makes me think (if you're scum), you're either partners with Socrates, are the cop (no scum use), are the bulletproof or bomb (with a scum vig), or are vanilla after going for the same role as Socrates. There are plenty of possible scenarios where bussing isn't a bad play.

I think most of the people on your wagon are using some form of number justification - you cannot say that they aren't influential. I hope you don't take it personally, but I believe scum are spread 1-1-1-1-1 or 1-1-1-2, which means for me, you or Socrates are the highest percentage lynch. I play mafia to win, and your lynch gives the best odds for Day 1.

[Hoopla]

Ray, are you seriously voting Fefi for that reason when your game contributions have been thus;

vote: jack

answer the question

Why'd you pick 4,6 as your numbers?

small numbers, higher draft choice, get PR, be happy, rock out

Do you think scum would have deliberately chosen to double up on a number somewhere to distance, or spread their choices over 5 different X numbers to improve their chances at better roles?

spreading seems possible, depends on how they think things'll go down and such, so yeh.

dunno.

either seem plausible.

What would you do if you were scum organising your team?

Prob go for more powers, I guess.

One vote on page two, and nothing else without being asked first.

[Hoopla]

Ray, the game wouldn't really get anywhere if you were allowed to vote people for things you were you doing yourself, though. Why did you feel the need vote if you were fully aware of the hypocrisy?

[Hoopla]

Here, let me try another approach to get through to you. Hoopla, in regular mafia games, what is your approach to Power roles? Let's put all the numbers and PYP and everything aside for a moment, just to humor me, and tell me: What would you do in this situation?:

1. We have Fate, at L-1, softclaimed PR.
2. We have many votes on him that are suspicious.

How do you proceed?

Well, here is my last town game (Mini 892: Mayor Mafia). Monkeyman was wagoned at a similar pace to you, and claimed cop on D1. We lynched him because the role was mostly valueless now that he was outed - we deemed it the better percentage play to hope he was lying. Towns don't win games by being too pussy to lynch claimed powerroles.

You're also missing an important factor - power roles aren't indicative of alignment which you seem to be pushing. A scum vig is equally (or probably more) beneficial to scum, than a town vig is to town. We should be lynching players with the highest odds of being scum even if that means lynching a powerrole.

Stop. Tunneling. Get off your high horse. We get it, your statistics are right. Using them to advocate lynching me may have even made scum jump at an "easy lynch"-a justifiable target. Dramonic seems the biggest offender of this.

They aren't statistics - I'm not doing studies and recording/displaying data. We're talking about

probabilities

in the different scenarios scum could choose to adopt. The probabilities in some scenarios are more than double of what you would get from a random or normal lynch on Day 1 in any other game. If the town deem certain the scenarios (where we have high odds for a scum lynch) likely, then we should pursue them.

The stigma against numbers is quite amusing to me, because I treat it as a viable form of scumhunting. If you strip back the fancy name and genralised tells, scumhunting is the term used to describe figuring out who scum is. People have different techniques, some are very logically or psychologically inclined, while some favour gut - but what all these techniques attempt to do, is find out information to

improve your odds

of lynching scum.

Nobody is perfect and we all have different interpretations of what is scummy, and what isn't. This is shaped through the success and failures of various techniques, seeing what works, what doesn't, and this always evolves as there is no set tell that is definitive. Once a tactic becomes common, most people will add it to their arsenal and use it/slightly tweak it to scenarios where they deem it useful. Vote/bandwagon analysis, bussing/distancing are all stock things that are debated in a normal game - but this is still guesswork based on the patterns you've established scum will follow.

I am using probabilities of scum positions to try and improve the odds of lynching scum on Day 1. The initial assumption (of whether scum doubled/tripled up or not) is guesswork based on what I think scum would/wouldn't do. Every alternate tell you use, uses an element guesswork, trying to decide if it is something scum would do. The reason I am favouring probabilities based on my assumption, is because I think I can guess what scum are doing with more likelihood, than guessing using more common techniques.

You'd be surprised how difficult it is to catch scum without any starting information - it is certainly a lot more random than people believe it to be. And without trying to sound too hypocritical, I think people overvalue their own personal reads/thoughts a lot (especially on D1).

I'm sorry for the rant, but I dislike numbers being trash-talked when the numbers are fine. It's the previous assumption the numbers are based on that should be disputed - and I have yet to see compelling arguments that scum have done anything other than 1-1-1-1-1 or 1-1-1-1-2.

[Hoopla]

You know Hoopla, and Happy birthday btw, much as I like talking theory and such, there is one basic assumption in your probabilities that you have failed to address. Your own alignment.
If you are town then your other assumptions are fair, but if you are scum then you'll already know how many 'X' numbers the scum are on and can tailor your assumptions to suit.

So rather than lynch the top, lets lynch you. If you flip town we know we can trust your assumptions and place a little more faith in your theory/plan. If you flip scum then ...

This needs to be taken into account when assessing anyone's play - whether it be based on numbers, 'scumhunting', role-information or whatever. It's kind of a time-waster (and insulting of people's intelligence) to go, 'hang on, before you take in this information, just remember i might be scum!'

I have explained my theory as eloquently as I can - you just have to decide if my motivations behind this theory seem sincere, scum oriented, or not important/not understood. At the moment, I think many people don't care about my numbers as much as me, which makes the 'lynch to prove my theory' irrelevant. If I

know

the town will follow my plan I will sacrifice myself to give credit to my theory and show it was town motivated.

But I certainly expect numbers to play a lesser role when we have other genuine information D2.

[Hoopla]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 12

Bouncy.Bouncy

- 2 - RedCoyote, Farside - (L-10)

Dramonic

- 2 - TonyMontana, Fate - (L-10)

Fate

- 6 - Hoopla, Bouncy.Bouncy, Porkens, The1fifi, Dramonic, FeFiFoFum - (L-6)

FeFiFoFum

- 5 - Rayfrost, Ellibereth, Faraday, wolframnhart, DocPotter - (L-7)

Hoopla

- 1 - Pomegranate - (L-11)

Pomegranate

- 2 - Socrates, Cobalt - (L-10)

Socrates

- 1 - StrangerCoug - (L-11)

wolframnhart

- 2 - curiouskarmadog, Jack - (L-10)

Players not voting: Devotress

Wow, I'm dazzled by how quickly Fate's wagon has evaporated. I still wouldn't be opposed to lynching him, but it makes me think scum were trying to protect Socrates via a Fate wagon;

Unvote, vote: Socrates

I'm not forgetting you, Fate.

[Hoopla]

Wow, I'm dazzled by how quickly Fate's wagon has evaporated. I still wouldn't be opposed to lynching him, but it makes me think scum were trying to protect Socrates via a Fate wagon;

Unvote, vote: Socrates

I'm not forgetting you, Fate.

I'm not forgetting that you're #2 in the draft order, as there was barely anything scummy about you, Fate*

*Fixed.

A watcher watches two players visit the house of a townie who is murdered - don't tell me you wouldn't use that information against a player, even if there was barely anything scummy about them.

[Hoopla]

Is there any way you can see the number choices improving the odds of particular players being scum/town? Or is it all ~WIFOM~ to you?

[Hoopla]

Fate, in this hypothetical, you know those two players have a 50% chance each of being mafia. Therefore they have equal chances of being scum variants of whatever their role is. The town will not win if we're too scared to lynch powerroles.

How do you think the town will win if scum have the vig and cop?

[Hoopla]

Is there any way you can see the number choices improving the odds of particular players being scum/town? Or is it all ~WIFOM~ to you?

It does increase there odds, I said so in my last post.
By 5.1 percent.


(as per jacks very helpfull equation post)

That act is becoming lame and unhelpful.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla I love you when I say this and I'm not saying your numbers analysis is shit at all but I think we should use a combo of scumhunting and number analysis to find scum. I would like you to actually read the game and point to those you think are scum and why that have nothing to do with the numbers right now.

I love you too. But you don't understand, my brain automatically callibrates things into percentages and numbers when I take any information in, you know? Like, even regular information from scumhunting filters through a part of my brain that turns it into psuedo-percentages (even if they aren't always quantified). Something can be a weak or a strong tell, we may have multiple tells we're working with, and some data/tells we use are more reliable than others. Whatever it is, we naturally add up in our subconcious all the information (of varying importance) and rank it against everyone else. This is a very mathematical process, even if we don't understand (or realize) that we're giving every player in the game 'odds' of being scum.

So, because I put so much stock in the value of this number analysis, it's clouding my ability to see past it, and set it aside. For example, Pom is probably scummier than the percentages purely from number analysis gives me - but then I remember she is one of 4 people who picked the number 6. It's highly likely that there is 0 or 1 scum in this group, so even if she is scummy, it does not make it a good chance lynch for me. I'm sorry, it's just stupid.

I'll give you a list of players who are scummier than number analysis implies, but giving such a list implies they are my top choices for a lynch, which is in most cases completely false. But here you go anyway;

Pomegranate

- myself and others have brought up contradictions with her talk of numbers, and then about not wanting to use numbers. Then her request of Fate to claim was quite fishy - I don't think she has been very sincere.

Fefi

- Undercontributing, and made a very bad vote to get onto the Fate wagon. I think a lot of scum were on Fate's wagon, and he's probably one.

RayFrost

- Is suspicious for targetting a lurker, whilst being one himself. It was a ridiculous attempt at a vote.

~~

But as I said, these reads from 'traditional scumhunting' aren't very valuable compared to number analysis for me. I know I'm pissing a lot of people off because of it, but this is such good information. Fefi and Ray are the two doubles I'd consider lynching first if we can't lynch Socrates/Fate.

[Hoopla]

@Hoopla:

Fefi - Undercontributing, and made a very bad vote to get onto the Fate wagon. I think a lot of scum were on Fate's wagon, and he's probably one.

Again your logic escapes me. A lot of scum were on my wagon, yet you still suspect me? Hardcore bussing of #2 power role to look good later on (even though half the wagon, had any real reasons that they could later look back on and say "hey I was right!") doesn't seem plausible to me right now, no matter what my role is. Even if I'm vanilla scum such a buss wouldn't be the right play as the first wagon of the day...

I suspect you on the basis if scum went 1-1-1-1-1 or 1-1-1-2, you have a 54% and 46% chance of being scum (respectively). Although your wagon is probably scum driven, the odds I believe (numbers) probably eclipse this other belief (a lot of scum on your wagon). It's possible they are bussing, it's possible they are protecting Socrates via a Fate wagon, or it's possible you're both town. Bussing is a viable possibility late in the wagon, maybe 7th onward - it's a reasonable expectation for a wagon to go through when it reaches that point, and scum may have thought it was better to cut their losses. I don't see scum starting your wagon though.

I've recently admitted Socrates is a better choice than you now, due to my hunch that your wagon was scum-fueled, but it still doesn't hide the numbers which override a lot of other less significant data.

[Hoopla]

Since numbers "override" a lot of other data, i.e., everything fucking else about mafia.

Your proposal is that we lynch straight down the list all singular numbers right? And you think this is a viable way to play D1?

No, I propose we lynch a singular number for just Day 1, when the lynch is most random. As days go by, we will generate plenty of non-number information (role info, bandwagon/vote analysis, confirmed alignments etc.) that I am happy to use. But as it stands, we have very little of that, and I deem number analysis the best information we have to work with. I'm using other methods outside number analysis to determine who I would prefer to lynch if the numbers mean multiple people are tied due to just numbers.

For example, you and Socrates should have equal odds of being scum because of numbers. Earlier I deemed you scummier (for reasons other than numbers) than Socrates, but it has since swung now that your wagon looks scum-driven. Then if I can't get this to happen, I will vouch for the scummiest double player.

~~

It's viable. But there's a decent chance that neither Socrates nor Fate are actually scum, so we'd just probably be wasting our best two power roles.

Again, if we're too scared to lynch power roles, we will not win this game. Are you going to let a scum vig or scum bulletproof live for multiple days just because of their role?

The risk is relative, and grounded in simple theory. Most roles are of more of less equal value to scum than to town (with some significantly more powerful for scum, aka vig) - therefore the risk associated with lynching a vanilla scum/vanilla townie is linear in relation to lynching a scum bulletproof/town bulletproof. If most roles stand to benefit each side roughly equally, we should be lynching based on chances of scum, not whatever role they claimed (with small exceptions).

Remember, all roles are open to both alignments. Alignment has nothing to do with role.

[Hoopla]

You want to use theory to lynch roles on the (decentish) chance they are scum, I want to use theory to help lynch scum and don't care if they have a role.

Fair summation?

I don't understand this summation. I'm not talking about lynching roles, explicitely, but it does coincide with the top of the draft. The theory is scum are likelier than random to be higher up the draft order due to potential planning. Therefore, if there is near equal value for town/scum for most roles, it shouldn't worry us about lynching a vig or a bomb etc.

[Hoopla]

Someone explain The1fifi thing to me - is it based on lurking/low content?

If so, why has this wagon gathered so much steam ahread of others like Porkens, RayFrost and TonyMontanna?

[Hoopla]

ATM, I'm flippin between Jack and Hoopla appearing slightly scummy for pushing optomised math and not looking at the their assumptions properly. Could be scum trying to push theories affected by known scum choices.

That's a valid concern, and I hope my theories won't be forgotten (although I know they will be) if/when I die. I feel like my numbers are good, because even if I am wrong and scum went 1-2-2 or 1-1-3, the town is still in a really good position, with scum likely having no/few good roles. I just don't see why scum would sabotage their chances at doing well in the draft to double/triple up - when all they get in return is a wifom defense against number analysis.

And when you look how swiftly people have called in wifom/unimportance about trying to analyse possible scum tactics, I sure hope they were foolish enough to double/triple up out of fear, because the town won't ever do anything about it, as it's an unconventional way of guessing who scum is.

~~

Due to a looming deadline, I'm willing to drop Scorates and Fate due to lack of interest (and fear of lynching powerroles ), and lynch from the pool of doubles since there are still decent odds there. I personally refuse to be apart of any lynch of a player in a group of 3 or 4, though.

[Hoopla]

I'm confused by bouncy's D1 defeatist attitude considering his play in the game he replaced in. It might just be a lack of interest (not that it's acceptable), but I get a town vibe from him. I'm also kind of curious to see if he'll open up on D2.

Fefi and RayFrost are very good lynch choices, due to their underperformance. RayFrost is especially concerning when you look at his play and realize his only activity has been attacking a lurker.

Fefi needs to die for his ill-timed, opportunistic vote on the Fate wagon.

Vote: Fefi

[Hoopla]

@Hoopla: Don't act as if dying is going to prove your 'numbers' theory is spot on. Scum can kill you just to make it seem that way and mislead town... (Hint: Watch for Hoopla dying and Dramonic trying to take up the mantle to lynch me tommorow).

I shouldn't have to - the numbers should stand alone. It's the assumption beforehand (guessing how many different X numbers scum picked) that needs to be debated.

I agree me dying doesn't prove a theory, but it would show my motivations were truthful, which seems to be the primary concern of people in the know. Now you're adding another clause about scum killing me to manipulate numbers? What you don't realize is that every piece of information in this thread is subject to scum manipulation - it feels like you're arguing as if numbers are more likelier to be tainted than any other piece of information we get. You're discrediting numbers using logic that basically equates to, 'but it might be scum manipulating us!'

It's like saying, 'don't think activeness and genuine-seeming scumhunting is pro-town, it might be scum trying to do it!' We're all limited in our abilities to break down and scan information, but we must always make decisions based on our best predictions. Provide reasons why scum aren't likely to do what I am predicting, without saying 'scum might be doing it', because as soon as you jump into that line of thinking, you also remove any chance of catching scum using that information.

[Hoopla]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 12

Bouncy.Bouncy

- 3 - RedCoyote, StrangerCoug, Porkens - (L-9)

Fate

- 3 - Bouncy.Bouncy, Dramonic, FeFiFoFum - (L-9)

FeFiFoFum

- 9 - Rayfrost, wolframnhart, Faraday, Hoopla, The1fifi, Ellibereth, Jack, Fate, TonyMontana - (L-3)

Jack

- 1 - DocPotter - (L-11)

Pomegranate

- 2 - Socrates, Farside - (L-10)

The1fifi

- 2 - Cobalt, Devotress - (L-10)

Players not voting: curiouskarmadog, Pomegranate

we need a lynch.

unvote; vote: Bouncybouncy

^--- not reading the thread

^ not posting in the thread

[Hoopla]

I'm fairly sure he mentioned it in the sign up thread.

[Hoopla]

8 votes in a little over 1 page? The wagon is an apathy driven lurker lynch? We are less than 24 hours from deadline?

FeFiFoFum is going to flip town. Wheee!

This feels fake to me. It's like a statement of disapproval, but it's only made when it's certain the wagon is going to go through, which makes it read like he's fishing for town credit for being anti-Fefi wagon.

I also think scum are more likely to make these sort of declarations prior to a lynch, because they can orchestrate their stance on the situation accordingly, due to knowledge of what the flip will be. Why would a naive townsperson make such a grand statement? It's an unnecessary risk - why risk Fefi being scum, as it incriminates you. But then if he flips town, you don't get that much credit anyway, so why risk it?

[Hoopla]

8 votes in a little over 1 page? The wagon is an apathy driven lurker lynch? We are less than 24 hours from deadline?

FeFiFoFum is going to flip town. Wheee!

This feels fake to me. It's like a statement of disapproval, but it's only made when it's certain the wagon is going to go through, which makes it read like he's fishing for town credit for being anti-Fefi wagon.

I also think scum are more likely to make these sort of declarations prior to a lynch, because they can orchestrate their stance on the situation accordingly, due to knowledge of what the flip will be. Why would a naive townsperson make such a grand statement? It's an unnecessary risk - why risk Fefi being scum, as it incriminates you. But then if he flips town, you don't get that much credit anyway, so why risk it?

Uh, because I believed it? That many votes in that little time for that kind of reasoning never actually results in a dead scumbag.

Also note that Bouncy.Bouncy had more votes than FeFi did when people started pileing up on FeFi and is also guilty of pretty much anything you could argue that FeFi was and it it shouldn't be hard to connect the dots.

I might be open to a bouncy lynch just based on that occurance alone.

I agree scum likely piled on toward the end - the weird thing is the last two players on the wagon flipping town. I'd give decent odds to the remaining players on the wagon (especially the latter half of the wagon) being scum.

Interesting theory about Bouncy though, it makes sense.

[Hoopla]

For the nth time, I don't see bouncy scum making this post:
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 79#2108179

Which of his town games are you getting this meta from? Does he have more than one?

Why is it alignment telling, rather than a player just being behind and taking the easy way out?

[Hoopla]

Good question Devotress! Short answer is yes, and I'll show some updated groups;

Group 1:

Socrates

Group 2:

Fate

Group 3:

bouncy.bouncy

Group 4:

Jack

Group 5:

RayFrost, RedCoyote

Group 6:

StrangerCoug, The1fifi, wolframnhart

Group 7:

Devotress, DocPotter, Porkens

Group 8:

Hoopla, TonyMontanna, Ellibereth

Group 9:

Farside, curiouskarmadog, Pomegranate, Faraday

There are now 4 players who are the only ones in their group, where 'group' represents the 'X' number they chose. I think this will gradually get easier to understand and rationalize as the game progresses. Unless people want me to talk about numbers, I won't bother, because I know you all hate them/don't understand/think they're wrong. But I think closing down entire groups is a sensible idea, because it means scum can only hide if they're all in 2-3 groups.

[Hoopla]

I have to disagree with RayFrost. The wagon on bouncy wasn't any closer then the wagon that was on FFF.
from one page it went from 2 votes on FFF to 9 votes;

Bouncy.Bouncy - 3 - RedCoyote, Faraday, Fate

- (L-9)
Cobalt - 1 - The1fifi - (L-11)
Dramonic - 1 - TonyMontana - (L-11)
Fate - 3 - Bouncy.Bouncy, Dramonic, FeFiFoFum - (L-9)
FeFiFoFum - 2 - Rayfrost, wolframnhart - (L-10)
Jack - 1 - DocPotter - (L-11)
Pomegranate - 2 - Socrates, Farside - (L-10)
Socrates - 2 - Hoopla, StrangerCoug - (L-10)
The1fifi - 3 - Cobalt, Porkens, Devotress - (L-9)
wolframnhart - 1 - Jack - (L-11)

Official Vote Count
Players needed to lynch: 12

Bouncy.Bouncy - 3 -

RedCoyote, StrangerCoug, Porkens

- (L-9)
Fate - 3 - Bouncy.Bouncy, Dramonic, FeFiFoFum - (L-9)
FeFiFoFum - 9 - Rayfrost, wolframnhart, Faraday, Hoopla,

The1fifi, Ellibereth, Jack, Fate, TonyMontana

- (L-3)
Jack - 1 - DocPotter - (L-11)
Pomegranate - 2 - Socrates, Farside - (L-10)
The1fifi - 2 - Cobalt, Devotress - (L-10)

Players not voting: curiouskarmadog, Pomegranate

TM is definately the worst offender when it comes to jumping on a BW to vote for FFF. Redcoyote and faraday were both on bouncy before moving to FFFF. So if bouncy isn't scum I could see those who were on the bouncy wagon jumping onto the FFF wagon to give it the fuel to go.

I tend to disagree. This analysis distorts the events, and makes it seem like the bouncy wagon was stagnant. But it

was

in competition when you look at 5 different names (in blue) were on his wagon over the same, short amount of time. The timing of vote counts doesn't reflect that though.

When you take that into consideration, it really looks like scum were trying to muscle a Fefi lynch ahead of bouncy. I'm prepared to vote for bouncy based on this evidence (with the added bonus of numbers playing to his advantage). But I also think there is at least two scum in the names in red I listed, which make good back-up lynches.

Vote: bouncy bouncy

[Hoopla]

I'm kind of throwing a lot of pronouns in this paragraph, but it's hard for me to explain exactly how I feel about the issue. If anyone is confused, I just mean to say that I like Hoopla's plan as long as it's considered another piece of scumhunting rather than a universal tool.

It's a tough one to balance, I suppose. It's all well and good to be wary of lynching town power roles, but what are you going to do if scum have a vig, a tracker and a bomb, for example? How do you seriously expect to win a game if you're not going to lynch these roles, if they're scummy enough in the first place (whether that's by numbers or anything else).

I'm most paranoid about the prospect of scum having a vigilante - I don't think some people understand the amount of damage that can do if it's in scum's hands. And let's be honest, it's not such bad odds. If the vig misses tonight, I want it to claim tomorrow so the town can direct the kill.

Okay, back on topic, I agree with your post and I think I have compromised my position to allow numbers to be just one facet of my lynch choice now. We have enough information now to not have to solely rely on number analysis.

[Hoopla]

Vote Bouncy.bouncy

Contribute or dieeeee.

Claim or die more like it.

A thought: for claims in the future (and now), if they're vanilla town, I think it's wiser if they don't claim what role they tried to get. Or at least, someone this high in the order anyway. We don't want scum figuring out where specific roles lie.

[Hoopla]

Vote Bouncy.bouncy

Contribute or dieeeee.

Claim or die more like it.

A thought: for claims in the future (and now), if they're vanilla town, I think it's wiser if they don't claim what role they tried to get. Or at least, someone this high in the order anyway. We don't want scum figuring out where specific roles lie.

That high in the order I can agree with but last game we found the information from the VT's helpful later in the game and it kept scum from lying about their role.

Yeah, I have no qualms with that.

[Hoopla]

Claim or die more like it.

Role cop

Go ahead and hammer me if it helps the town, my role is pretty much useless for town with the PYP mechanic and I only picked it because I didn't want the mafia to have it.

Should I post my result from last night? Idk if that would help the town or the mafia.

Eh, initial thoughts; it's probably more likely to come from town. I think there are probably better roles scum would have gone for with the 3rd pick. Although, I want to wait for a potential counterclaim.

I don't know about the result. I'm leaning towards no, or maybe tell us the player and

then

the town decides whether or not you can say the role from then. But lets wait for everyone else.

[Hoopla]

EVERYONE ELSE
Ray
Wolf
Devo
Tony
Far
Pom
Fara

Interesting how you've got three players from the last group as your scum reads. Do you think they are people who doubled up numbers? Or they're just scummy independantly, and not all of them are scum?

[Hoopla]

Pom is a ridiculously bad choice for an alternate wagon. RayFrost is the way forward people.

Unvote, vote: RayFrost

[Hoopla]

Another thought about the bouncy claim; it's possible that bouncy could be scum with Socrates and/or Fate, which would make going for that role a viable option for scum in that position. Or conversely, scum could have picked up role-cop in the bottom half of the draft, which would have made it safe for bouncy to claim it. He might be a scum bomb/bulletproof for example, trying to draw a vig kill. Or is cloaking the identity of a scum vig role, or something that makes more sense as mafia to claim.

I don't think this is that likely, but having the role uncountered doesn't mean it's completely checked out.

[Hoopla]

Wow 5 pages during my sleep? I'm reading through them now.

[Hoopla]

I'm surprised how much traction my theory about the other reasons he could have claimed role-cop has taken. The random.org thing is bizarre, why would we say that if he had a scumteam though. I can't imagine him not being coached through this situation if he's that clueless about the claiming process.

Fate was questioning my reluctance to lynch bouncy (a power role), which seems to conflict my previous statements about lynching based on suspicions. To this I say, if something doesn't seem scum motivated, that can take a lot of the wind out of the sails sometimes. Claims are great ways to figure out motivations, and I'm struggling to figure out what bouncy's is.

It doesn't make sense to play this way if he has a scumteam talking to him, telling him what to do. You know?

[Hoopla]

YOU ROLECOP YOUR SCUM SUSPECTS BECAUSE THEY ARE THE ONES WHO ARE GOING TO LIE ABOUT THEIR ROLE.

That is all.

^scum... coaching bouncy.

If bouncy actually flips role cop, we can look into Socrates as #1 scum pick.

No one put bouncy at L-1. He will self-hammer to try to stop PRs from sending in actions.

PRs: Catch up and send in action.

Why would scum coach in thread?

[Hoopla]

The fact that I was asking you to lynch based scum tells, and not numbers, but then calling you out for doing the former is not a contradiction. Are you suggesting you altered your play based off my advice?

No, I altered my tactics based on there being a lot more information to work with. I stated multiple times on Day 1, we should only lynch based purely on numbers on Day 1. Thereafter, we have enough information to make more accurate choices, and numbers should be a back-up.

Bouncy still has a decent chance of being scum, based on numbers alone and his refusal to play the game, but it doesn't make sense as scum (granted, it doesn't make sense as town either). At the moment, I'd prefer Socrates or RayFrost over this lynch.

[Hoopla]

At the moment, I'd prefer Socrates or RayFrost over this lynch.

Um. You realize RayFrost has been confirmed Tracker, right? Is there any reason for scum to have this role?

HAHAHA, I'm an idiot. I don't know why I forgot this.

[Hoopla]

RayFrost is probably town. The only motivation for scum to take this, is to create some vanillas thinking a lot of townies would go for it early-ish. But they would only do this if they had other high draft picks.

~~

Thinking out loud; Fate is probably town too. He didn't crack under pressure when he was wagoned D1 - usually scum are eager to claim to disspell a wagon on them and buy more time. It kind of makes me think that maybe scum have pulled some ridiculous gambit of doubling/tripling up to put pressure on the top order of the draft.

Although, Bouncy could be a good information lynch to reassess numbers and try and figure where scum is likelier to be. And his role isn't exactly helpful for town in general, and especially now that he's outted. I think this is a good percentage play.

[Hoopla]

I've read through the thread quickly. I'm still happy with a bouncy lynch, I'm pretty sure he's scum. I mean I could see a few of the things he's done being down to being new, but most of them are just scummy.

Yeah, some of those things, otherwise maybe them something probably not scummy was scum, something something.

[Hoopla]

Unvote, Vote: Bouncy

This is getting silly. We've forced out two roleclaims - if we lynch somewhere else, we're going to need another claim. If none of these players are scum, we're just handing away free information to scum for no reason. What if we wagoned someone else and they claimed a role? We're not doing ourselves any favours by playing this way.

Bouncy is a good lynch. Reasons;

1) Number analysis means he's statistically the best lynch
2) His refusal to scumhunt or well, do anything really
3) The roleclaim can go either way - but if he's scum we get a lot more information about the possible positioning of his teammates
4) I don't buy the random.org thing
5) He was the competition-wagon to FeFi's on D1, that mysteriously evaporated and morphed into a Fefi lynch within a page. That's cause for suspicion - scum muscling Fefi's ahead of bouncy's, despite showing similar amounts of support for similar crimes.
6) He's claimed a role that isn't really useful to town. If he was a vig/cop, then there's worth keeping him around for potential results, but there is no gain here. Only scum can possibly gain from this role.

I refuse to be distracted again!

[Hoopla]

WHY WOULD YOU RANDOM INVESTIGATE A PLAYER! WHAT WOULD BE THE FUCKING POINT IN DOING THAT!?

As I said before, you asking "why" instead of answering "because..." just proves me right.

If you suggest that I should pick who to investigate based on certain criteria, there should be a

reason

for using those criteria. If you can give no

reason

, then your suggestion is derived

arbitrarily

and there is no "FUCKING POINT IN DOING THAT" either.

Thus we have two choices, both of which there is no "FUCKING POINT IN DOING". So you can't tell me that it is better to choose one over the other.

I LOVE SCUM FIGHTS!

[Hoopla]

[Hoopla]

Yeah that RedCoyote was really suspicious.

I think it's safe to say the vigilante is very likely in scum's hands, and if this is true, we should be putting all our efforts into finding it asap.

Socrates is the logical choice here - why would scum go for anything else when they know how much damage double kills can be? Losing two townies every night cycle is such a quick road to demise, it isn't funny.

Vote: Socrates

/support Socrates claiming, unless someone else is the vig and wants to justify their actions. If you're the vig and town, you must claim now so the town can direct your kill.

[Hoopla]

Socrates, what was your reasoning for going for cop instead of vig? Why did you investigate me on Night 1?

[Hoopla]

Right, assuming this cop claim isn't some sort of scum gambit, I'm confirmed innocent, and probably going to die tonight if scum have either the doctor or the empowerer (if town have these roles, I should be safe).

In case I die tonight, I want to make a detailed post outlining my suspicions

before

Pomegranate is lynched

. I think I can make significant cases based on numbers and wagon analysis now that we have a lot of holes in the draft order and a lot of confirmed alignments to work with. And now that I am confirmed town, my reads will be a lot more reliable, as you know I am scum not distorting data. So, please let me do this first, yeah?

[Hoopla]

Someone unvote for now, PLEASE!

[Hoopla]

Right, assuming this cop claim isn't some sort of scum gambit, I'm confirmed innocent, and probably going to die tonight if scum have either the doctor or the empowerer (if town have these roles, I should be safe).

LOL-DOC-PROTECT-HOOPLA-NOT-SOCRATES, WUT?

Sorry, I got a little excited about being confirmed town. Yeah, I'm probably dead tonight.

[Hoopla]

Group 1:

Socrates

Group 2:

Fate

Group 3:

Jack

Group 4:

StrangerCoug, The1fifi, wolframnhart

Group 5:

Devotress, Porkens, DocPotter

Group 6:

Ellibereth, Hoopla, TonyMontana

Group 7:

Farside, curiouskarmadog,

Pomegranate

, Faraday

Here are the updated groups. There are only 7 left, and there is 5 scum hiding in there somewhere. If Pom is scum like Socrates claims, it gives A LOT of town points to Farside, CKD and Faraday.

Doubling up (and to a lesser degree tripling) is still a viable prospect, but I do not expect more than one double up. It is only Day 3, and already 7 of the top 10 draft picks have been made to claim, or have been killed. It seems obvious to me that scum taking such liberal risks at the top ranked players means they aren't afraid of the bomb. It is highly likely that scum have the bomb, and I think it is probably Fate.

Earlier in the game, Fate refused to claim;

I'll tell you what scum is really doing, on the other hand, and that is bandwagoning in full force to get the #2 PR to claim.

And guess what: No.

Initially I considered this a town tell, as Fate wasn't cracking under pressure - something scum would likelier do in this situation than town. But it makes more logical sense that he is the bomb, and knew his claim wouldn't save him (as he has no town value).

Farfetched conspiracy theory; Socrates is scum vig claiming Cop to get an easy lynch - and another double kill at night (Fate is bomb giving Socrates the knowledge he can shoot anywhere safely). Although, this will prove Socrates guilty, a scum governor could stop that lynch and put us in to lylo with 4 scum alive.

Actually, I'm starting to get very worried about the prospect of a scum governor combined with the power of double kills.

~~

Some numbers; if scum went 1-1-1-1-1 with their picks, it means everyone in the last group is town due to a scum being there. It then means there are 4 scum left in 6 groups, giving the current singulars a 66% chance of being scum.

I'm starting to think this is unlikely and scum have doubled up once. 1-1-1-2 is the most logical option. It doesn't expose them like the first option does, but then it doesn't completely destroy their chances of getting good roles (like 1-1-3 or others do).

If this is true, it means one of Farside, Faraday, CKD still have a chance of being scum, but there are still 3 other groups where the double up could be. The odds for the singulars being scum is a lot more complicated to predict, because it depends where the double up is. If it's in Pom's group, the odds are 50% (due to 3 scum being left in 6

different

groups). If the double up is elsewhere, it is slightly higher (but I'm too lazy to work it out).

~~

However, we're getting to a point in the game where number analysis must come second to role information. We need to find the vig asap, and numbers provide not much insight into this process.

If you're the vig, claim now so the town can direct your kill

. It is too risky hoping it isn't in the hands of scum. If there is no claim, I am assuming the vig is scum, and all of our efforts should be going into finding the vig.

~~

If the vig is scum, it makes the town rolecop a detrimental role to scum, and I want to now look at bouncy's wagon as I definitely think scum were trying to push it through after the claim.

Ellibereth gets a lot of town points for his stance against the bouncy lynch. He could have quite easily fabricated a reason (there were plenty floating around) to get on the wagon and finish the kill. I doubt he would have gathered suspicion for doing it either, which makes staying off the wagon a far more likelier town play.

After a spate of unvotes on the bouncy wagon, it is Fate who attacks hard at bouncy causing the wagon to be pushed through to lynch. Myself and Farside were also proponents of this, but knowing I am town (and semi-confirmed) and farside is likely town (due to being in a large group with scum-pom) it makes it highly likely Fate is scum pushing this wagon.

I encourage everyone else to reread that passage of play - because it is definitely in scum's interest to get the role-cop lynched, and Fate was the one trying hardest at this. I'm also wary of people of the people on the bouncy wagon

before

the claim, who didn't offer anything after the claim but stayed on anyway (StrangerCoug and wolf). At least one of those two will be scum, I can't see any way they're both town.

Scum list:

Pom
Fate/Jack
StrangerCoug/wolf
TonyMontana/Porkens (lurkers in the 5th and 6th group)

Town list:

Ellibereth
Farside
Faraday

[Hoopla]

You were doing so well, Hoopla, but then you came up with what you yourself admit is a conspiracy theory.

There are other roles besides bomb that benefit from not claiming, it is shame you can't think of them.'

The vig is scum, and is either Jack, SC, Wolf, or f1f1. I also highly doubt this elaborate plan of Claim cop -> mislynch -> Governor on Socrates -> Lylo theory. That would require some excellent coordination and planning.

It was a conspiracy theory - I never expected it to hold water. Also, scum governor is very potent. How does claim cop, get guilty mislynch, governor socrates require a lot of coordination? All they need is the cop claim to fly.

What if Socrates is vig, and scum picked up cop somewhere else, along with governor?

Socrates claim cop because he is going to die anyway --> get mislynch ---> get double kills at night ---> get lynched (but governed) ---> get two more kills - that takes the game to 6 town:5 scum. Then 5:4 with a Socrates lynch/NK.

How is the town supposed to win that when we need to lynch 4 times correctly in a row?

~~

What do you think about the rest of my thoughts? It seems weird you only comment on the conspiracy theory as opposed to anything else. It's like you're picking the simplest thing to go for to discredit my entire post.

[Hoopla]

The "Socrates actually is cop" line should read as him dying tonight as town and being lynched tomorrow.

Reading it a 2nd time, the scariness of your theory begins to set it, as offchance as it may be. Let's say it is true: Where do we go from here? Lynch Socrates, not Pom?

It's a scary prospect yes - but I don't think it's likely, as it depends on scum having vig, cop and governor, but it's one town should be aware of. The percentage play is still to lynch Pomegranate - we can't not lynch a cop guilty result over a potentially damaging but obscure scum gambit.

Hopefully you're still around so we can have more neighbor like chats. This may seem like a weird question because you're basically confirmed town now: but why didn't you speculate me as the scum vig?

Because of the way you reacted to your wagon to L-1. If you were scum vig, I don't think you'd be so calm. And I don't think scum would risk starting and pushing a massive wagon on their most damaging role, because there is no chance that wagon was all town. I'm not discounting the possibility of you being [other] scum, but I doubt you're the scum vig.

[Hoopla]

Great. I go from semi-confirmed innocent, to blatant scum wifom target. Thanks!

Before we speedlynch Socrates, lets stop and think about the situation. Socrates is very likely not the scum vig, as he as essentially spontaneously combusted, which isn't something scum would do to their vig. We know scum (almost certainly) have vig and the cop, and I seriously doubt scum would have got either of those roles without picking one of them first. So, the most logical answer is Socrates is the scum cop, and they managed to pick up vig lower down the order.

Although, that seems like bizarre scum-play. Why would you not take vig when you have number 1 choice? One explaination is that Fate is vig, meaning scum got top two spots. But I already think that situation is unlikely based on Fate's wagon. So, if Fate is scum, he should be the vig (but that probably isn't true) - which makes him strongly town.

Jack, StrangerCoug, Fifi and wolf are the logical choices to for the scum vig, and I'm wondering if it's worthwhile having a massclaim now to try and flush the vig out. We might get lucky with role information contradictions and figure the vig out, because I'm not so sure lynching Socrates now is a good idea. It just seems so planned that I'm becoming more and more worried about a scum governor stopping a potential scum vig lynch.

[Hoopla]

I think we should massclaim today - it's getting to the point where it's almost too late with the rate these double kills set us back. We need to find out where the vig is, and try and find out where the governor is and assess if they are town or not.

also, /agree with post 1011.

[Hoopla]

The only way Socrates is vig is if you're the scum governor or scum cop, Fate. There's no way scum would have picked up cop

and

governor at 7th or lower in the draft. Why would scum waste a mid-range draft pick trying for cop, when there are plenty of other great scum-roles out there (see; rolecop, roleblocker, empowerer etc.)

The only way this gambit works is if scum have all three roles (cop, vig, governor). They're probably not going to get these roles without a 1/2 draft combination. Socrates is probably the cop.

There is no way scum would have done this fake-guilty ploy if they didn't have the cop.

[Hoopla]

The only way Socrates is vig is if you're the scum governor or scum cop, Fate. There's no way scum would have picked up cop

and

governor at 7th or lower in the draft. Why would scum waste a mid-range draft pick trying for cop, when there are plenty of other great scum-roles out there (see; rolecop, roleblocker, empowerer etc.)

The only way this gambit works is if scum have all three roles (cop, vig, governor). They're probably not going to get these roles without a 1/2 draft combination. Socrates is probably the cop.

There is no way scum would have done this fake-guilty ploy if they didn't have the cop.

Regardless, Socrates is scum, and massclaiming now won't help us find the Vig. Lynch Socrates, pressure the likely vigs tommorow.

I don't know if lynch Socrates is the best town move right now. It feels like we're just playing into scum's hands. They would have

known

what was going to happen if Socrates did this - I can tell you now, it wasn't just a, 'hey, i'm cop lol! lets lynch pom' thing. There must be a reason why they are doing this.

My theory is they are trying to buy enough time keeping the vig hidden, so that double kills can take them home. 'Cop guilty result'/'cop found lying' are fundamental railroaded plays that chew up two days with the net result of 1 scum for 5 townies, but more importantly keeping the vig (and possibly governor) hidden. Scum would have known the numbers, and they could have deemed this a risk-free way of ensuring the vig isn't found, as town have no options but to play by the book.

But we need to ditch that now if we want to have any chance of winning. We're probably already too far behind, but if we don't find the vig now, we won't win. Simple as that, sorry. Provide reasoning why Socrates

could

be the vig and I'll play along.

[Hoopla]

I don't know if lynch Socrates is the best town move right now. It feels like we're just playing into scum's hands. They would have known what was going to happen if Socrates did this - I can tell you now, it wasn't just a, 'hey, i'm cop lol! lets lynch pom' thing. There must be a reason why they are doing this.

Like I said, if we are playing into scum's hands it is already too late. SC and DP just seem like scum trying to work your theory against us, which makes me hopeful Socrates is the vig.

I'll vote Socrates when I get back from work tonight.

But why would scum do this cop fakeclaim play if it didn't improve their chances of winning? If Socrates really was the vig, I'd expect more people picking up my arguments (or creating some of their own) about why Socrates isn't a good play and probably isn't the vig. The town consensus seems to be that Socrates is scum, but have no idea if he's the vig or not.

I'm saying we need to deal with this later and find the scum vig now, otherwise it will just be two more town kills. I don't think your argument for Socrates possibly being the vig is too solid. As you said yourself, it just seems like hope more than anything, which is not enough. Logically, it doesn't make sense for Socrates to be scum and put himself in this situation.

If Socrates is the vig, it means scum also have the cop, because Socrates must have known cop was a safe claim. If this was the case, why not claim cop with innocents (maybe even innocents on corpses), or even a guilty on a scumbuddy? He would have known claiming a fake-guilty is only a short-term survival strategy, which isn't anywhere near optimum scumvig play.

[Hoopla]

In my opinion, if the governor is town, they need to claim now, so we can assess if they are likely town or not. This gives us a better understanding of how urgently we need to find the vig, and how long we have left. If we can safely assume the governor is town, then it gives us a bit more security.

What does everyone else think? Having the governor hidden only benefits scum, because if the governor is town, they are not going to use the power anyway. So, even by outing the governor we don't lose anything by it claiming.

[Hoopla]

Isn't townie governor saving themselves in lylo potentially a good play for us? I don't think massclaim is good for the town today.

If scum have governor then they basically win.

Soc is the only person we can lynch that we

know

won't lose the us the game. In the number one spot he has a very good chance of being vig too, especially since he only claimed cop when it looked like he was going to be lynched.

No, it isn't a good play for a townie, because we don't know if it's a townie or scum that has governed themself. Then because we get no death, scum get another round of night kills - enough to win the game.

~~

Socrates is the 'safe' option for lynch, because we're lynching scum, but I don't understand why scum would do this to their vigilante. If Socrates isn't the vig, I don't understand why scum wouldn't take vig as number 1 in the first place. A reason for that is Fate being the vig (scum having picks 1 and 2). But then it isn't doesn't make sense again because of Fate's reaction to his wagon.

So if either of those options aren't true, the minimum spot vig could be is 7th. But if it's dropped that far, it could feasibly drop anywhere down to 14th or so. But, why would scum do that, rather than just taking it first? Because we know the vig is almost certainly scum, and Socrates is scum. It's like a circle of logic where we have to guess which irrational scum decision is the most rational, because one of them has to be true.

[Hoopla]

Pipe down with the wifom games Socrates, you're causing a scene.

[Hoopla]

I agree:
-It is getting more and more likely that scum have governor

My points:
-So what? What if we do magically out the real vig? The governor will just stop

his

lynch.
-Realistically, we won't find the real vig. Therefore we have a high chance of mislynching and losing automatically

1) Lets wait until everyone checks in again before make such assessments. I'll bold this request -

if you're the town governor, you must claim now.

2) Well, if we don't find the vig today we will likely lose. If we don't find it tomorrow we almost definitely lose. If nobody claims governor, then we know for sure this is the case.
3) If you think this is a no-hope chance for the town, why not listen to me and follow my orders, and let me try and give the town a chance at winning this game. I think I'm one of the one's taking it most seriously, and could do some damage if I have people to back me up. I will likely die tonight, and I hope the town just doesn't give up, so I'm staking everything on finding the vig.

And at the moment, I think it's one of the three players in the only untouched group - StrangerCoug, Fifi, wolf.

[Hoopla]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 7

Fate

- 1 - Socrates - (L-6)

Socrates

- 5 - Ellibereth, Jack, The1fifi, Fate, DocPotter - (L-2)

Players not voting: curiouskarmadog, Devotress, Faraday, Hoopla, StrangerCoug, TonyMontana, wolframnhart

That's impossible if both The1fifi and I are telling the truth

. We both implied that we tried for a role and got beaten to it. I tried for bomb and didn't get it, leaving me as VT, and likewise for The1fifi trying to get the vig role; wolframnhart is below The1fifi.

It's impossible Fate is scum if he's telling the truth. It's impossible I'm scum if I'm truthful too. I don't understand the need to reassert such a basic concept about the game. If anything, it makes it seem like you're insecure with your statements and need to reaffirm their merit.

As for the rest of your post - we don't know Socrates' role or Jack and Fate's claims, so your claiming of players above you taking specific roles is not something that can be assessed, without knowledge of what those players you're setting up claim to be. You're automatically assuming Fifi's claim is true by the way. Why?

[Hoopla]

SC and Fifi just denied Vig, as expected. If Jack is the vig, he'll deny it. If Wolf is the vig, Fifi lied to throw off suspicion AND Wolf will deny it.

Seriously, in a game where you can claim VT reasonably after this many flips, how do you propose we find the vig?

1. Lynch SC, fifi is telling the truth and it is either Jack or SC (or Socrates)
2. Lynch Jack, see above
3. Lynch Me, see above
4. Lynch Wolf for no reason other than he could be lying
^All these situations a mislynch will lead to instant loss

I think lynching Socrates leads to a town loss, which is why we need to take a shot at hitting the vig now. It's a slim chance yes, but I think it's better than going down the other path. I also think we have enough information to guess where the vig isn't, to give ourselves a decent chance. Some logik;

1) Socrates is scum, although I don't think he is the vig.
2) Fate is probably not scum, and almost certainly not the vig
3) Jack could be scum, but if he was the vig, I doubt scum would have killed off RC (at least as early as they did) to leave Jack exposed in a group by themself.
4) I'm starting to become convinced that scum gambited and took cop first to neutralise the power of cop, and then assume everyone else would assume vig was gone. Meaning scum could pick it up lower in the order.
5) If number 4 is true, it is very likely it is within the group of Stranger/Fifi/wolf due to that group being untouched.

My current theory is a Fifi/wolf scumteam where wolf is the vig and Fifi is trying to deflect attention either to himself or the players higher up the order. It seems like a very sensible ploy. There have been times where wolf has come under suspicion by players but never really bandwagoned successfully. Usually alternate wagons have kicked on at this time, which is the sort of behaviour I'd expect scum to have toward and around their vigilante.

Two questions for everyone to answer when they have time;

Is it a worthwhile risk taking a shot at anyone else other than Socrates?
Who are your top vigilante suspects?

[Hoopla]

Who are your top vigilante suspects?
Soc and Fate. SC or Jack seem plausible to, but i don't think many people suport my theory that if for some reason vig is not picked at 1#, 2#, then it won't be picked at all. Therefore, the chances of a vig lower in the draft (as low as me, as i already stated i miss the vig) are low.

So basically everyone above you?

[Hoopla]

You must be joking if you think the quicklynch thing would have worked. You need half the players in the game to get a quick lynch, yet you think that there won't be any scum there available to send in kills.

I just hope that Socrates is vig.

[Hoopla]

We need claims from Fate and Jack to sort out this mess and help us narrow down the vig. Really. Also, I'm calling Elli scum based on his ridiculous anti-town plan to try and speedlynch, but probably not important scum.

[Hoopla]

And I'll be stopping any lynch I'm not happy with. So today is the day you guys have to convince

me

!!! Yaaaaaay!!!!
Rereading. I was wrong about Doc.

Sorry to burst the bubble on your little power trip, but a govern on ANY lynch takes the current 6:4 scenario to night with no kill. Guess what's going to happen then?

If you're town, take back that threat, because it means auto-lose. I'm baffled why you'd even bother saying that - because there is zero pro-town motivation. I think it's a safe assumption Elli is scum, and he's just rubbing our noses in it because he can't lose.

[Hoopla]

Also if Jack is telling the truth, we'll get a "Town vig shot" if we lynch him. Jack, how do you feel about taking the lynch and vigging fifi?

The truth about what? His role and alignment? That is such a bad idea - I'll explain why;

If Jack is town vengeful:

1) Lynch Jack - 5:4
2a) Vengekill any scum except vig - 5:3 ---> double-kill ---> lose
2b) Vengekill town 4:4 ----> lose
2c) Vengekill vig 5:3 ----> single-NK ----> 4:3

One possible out that doesn't = instant lose

Then, if Jack is scum vengeful:

1) Lynch Jack - 6:3
2) Vengekill town (obviously) ----> 5:3 ----> double-kill ----> lose

~~

This isn't even taking into account the possibility of a scum governor too. If the scum have it, we lose before we even get to consider any of those options.

But lets assume the town still has a chance - why would we take that chance that A) Jack is town and B) he will get lucky and hit the vig. Why don't we just try and lynch the vig now?

The only way a Jack lynch should be considered is if he is counterclaimed, which gives him a chance of being vig.

[Hoopla]

Oh, forgot about that.
Well then, I'll be stopping my own lynch under any circumstances.
Hoopla is scum who went for governer and came up blank IMo btw.

For what it's worth, I am vanilla. I tried to net Universal Backup.

[Hoopla]

You were supposed to let Jack answer, but ok, don't let me pressure anyone.

I never saw that post addressed to anyone specifically. How was I supposed to know you were using ridiculous suggestions as a formula for pressure?

[Hoopla]

Wolf, why did you take that role so high up the draft list? It seems like a mostly worthless role.

[Hoopla]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 6

StrangerCoug

- 1 - The1fifi - (L-5)

Players not voting: Devotress, Ellibereth, Faraday, Fate, Hoopla, Jack, StrangerCoug, TonyMontana, wolframnhart

This is good, (unless Faraday and Wolf are scum together and we're screwed) that Wolf is a confirmable role.

Now it's either Fifi, Jack, or SC. SC either took a hell of a risk claiming going for bomb, or he's scum with Jack. In the latter case, Jack should've waited for me to claim first to see if I was bomb or not, so that he could claim bomb.

That makes it 50% right now on Fifi and Jack. Like the numbers better now, Hoopla? Either 50% that Jack is vig, or he's town and vigs Fifi, and then we go to lylo again (what an intense game!)

That doesn't factor yourself in as the vig, or scum with StrangerCoug. Don't seriously expect to push such optimistic numbers when you omit a big possibility.

[Hoopla]

Wolf, why did you take that role so high up the draft list? It seems like a mostly worthless role.

To be honest I was thinking about taking that role. If survived long enough it can create a web of masons as well as a confirmed neigbhorizer. Also seems, from Wolf's perspective I'm guessing, like an odd enough role that he could be sure he wouldn't turn up vanilla.

Why are you answering for wolf, i'm trying to pressure him!!!!11

[Hoopla]

Fate, I think you being vig is not as slim as I once thought (pre-Soc scumflip). It mostly doesn't make sense why scum wouldn't take cop/vig as their number 1 and 2. This is either means you're town - which makes StrangerCoug probably town too. Which I don't buy.

I think the likeliest scenario right now is that you're the scum bomb, and StrangerCoug is the scumvig, giving Stranger a safe fakeclaim that would look good when it needed to look good in lylo.

There is a small possibility that Fifi is lying (but still not the vig himself) and scum let the vig drop even lower down the list, assuming nobody would go for it. But I don't think it is worth considering.

I'm not considering wolf to be the vig either, because it means he has to be scum with someone else down the list who took neighbourizer. And I just don't see scum taking that role.

That leaves Fifi and Jack. You're right that Jack's role makes him hard to lynch, in the sense that almost every possibility leads to a town loss. Could scum have known this before Socrates fakeclaim and set up for this? No. Because the way it has unfolded, Jack's security stems from the web of roles below and above him - something scum could not have predicted. He lucked out (either as town or scum) in this position, which means it was not a scum-planned 'can't take a chance lynching me' gambit.

Like wolf, the only way Jack could be the vig, is if he has a scumpartner lower down the list that actually has the vengeful role themself (but is above Doc). It's feasible, but there are other higher probabilty scenarios, and in these scenarios they don't carry the auto-lose risks that lynching Jack has.

Fifi to me seems like the obvious choice for vig - his claim was a great way to basically shove suspicion up the ladder. I'm still working out the possibilities of teams Fifi could be on, but in my opinion, the vig is between one of the two vanilla claims (Fifi and StrangerCoug).

[Hoopla]

STUPID QUESTION TIME:
If we miss the vig today, it's a loss right?
Almost done scanning through.

No, if we hit regular scum, we should get another day. The only clause in this is if we hit scum vengeful, then it's a loss. Any town lynch today is a loss.

[Hoopla]

I don't even know what you're trying to do, Fate. The way you're vote-hopping so frequently makes me suspect you don't know what you're doing and haven't thought about all the possibilities. Or you're just trying to create noise and distract from something. I don't know what yet.

[Hoopla]

Wow, you're right! Fifi, you better explain yourself here.

[Hoopla]

Tell me when the other voice in your head kicks in Fate, so we can move on to the next theory. Because it's just guesswork to lynch SC. Fifi is the obvious lynch today - she slipped up. You caught him.

It's highly likely he is scum, and a decent chance he is vig. So even if he isn't vig, we get another shot the next day, as a scum lynch now doesn't lose the game for us. I'm convinced you're town now Fate, despite your erratic play today. But please at least be reasonable.

I'm going to work on a logical case now that we have all the information available to the town. We can probably break this game.

[Hoopla]

Let's say we do lynch Fifi and hit scum, or vig, and go on to tomorrow, what is the opinion of the town on who i should neighborize?

I'm not sure it really matters too much at this stage. Maybe pair someone scummy with Fate though, so he can abuse them.

[Hoopla]

Fate, Fifi is the optimum lynch today, and I think you know it.

Fifi slipped massively - enough to give very decent chances of being scum. I don't know why you're pushing a SC vig over a Fifi vig, because it works both ways! Can you explain to me why a Fifi vig, SC bomb isn't feasible considering they both claimed vanilla?

Because if they are both roled, they could have sculpted their fakeclaims this way, and swapped roles to give Fifi vig more protection. So when you consider Fifi is very likely scum (even if he isn't the vig), it makes it the percentage play, right? Because you have that back-up net, that you're still lynching scum anyway. There's a chance of Jack vig, you've suddenly taken out of the equation which I can't work out - so if you go for SC and it's a Jack/Fifi scumteam, it's an automatic loss.

But in a Fifi/SC scumteam, a Fifi lynch is the most rational choice, because you cannot know who is likelier to be vig out of SC/Fifi.

[Hoopla]

Vote: StrangerCoug

Okay, you guys better be right about him being the vig. If SC is just regular scum, I'm calling Fate-vig.

[Hoopla]

What if I bribe you?

[Hoopla]

Smile, life is good!

[Hoopla]

I don't know. I wish I had a kill.

[Hoopla]

Nice. Although TM's vote post sounds pretty scummy to me. Hoopla's almost laughably so.

What incentive would I have to bus a vig if I was scum? It doesn't even make sense. In case I'm attacked in my sleep, Jack needs to be hung tomorrow.

[Hoopla]

Group 1:

Socrates (12,1)

Group 2:

Fate (13,4)

Group 3:

bouncy.bouncy (2,1), Cobalt (2,10)

Group 4:

RayFrost (4,6), Redcoyote (4,9)

Group 5:

Jack (7,2),

FeFiFoFum (7,11)

Group 6:

StrangerCoug (3,1)

, The1fifi (3,7), wolframnhart (3,7)

Group 7:

Devotress (8,3),

Porkens (8,9), DocPotter (8,10)

Group 8:

Ellibereth (1,2)

,

Dramonic (1,1)

, Hoopla (1,1), TonyMontana (1,1)

Group 9:

Farside (6,3), curiouskarmadog (6,12), Pomegranate (6,4),

Faraday (6,4)

This set of groups works on the basis that Fate is town, so Fate, you'll love this! I'm also considering Ellibereth town too, as if he is scum then we lose no matter what happens. Lets also assume StrangerCoug is some form of scum too - otherwise, again, the game is over. So, lets forget those scenarios, and work on how the town can win if these initial assumptions are true.

For scum, there are still three of them out there, but still one big fat wedge of players right there in the middle. There is a decent chance Fifi is scum, which basically confirms wolf as town, as there is little to no chance scum tripled up there. But why would scum not take vig, if they didn't have at least one high-ish pick to grab it? It doesn't make sense, because scum know how powerful such a role is.

If Strangercoug is just a regular scum, it means Jack is probably scum based on him being in a higher drafted singular group. After filtering out previous assumptions, which can account for no more than a 5% swing, Jack has a 3/5 chance of being scum over every other player in the game (myself included). But then if SC flips scum vig, it increases Jacks chances of being scum by a 45% chance based on the role order contradiction. Of course, there are only 3 groups left after this, and roleclaims that don't make logical sense for either Jack or Devotress.

But lets assume in this scenario that myself and Faraday get nightkilled, it wipes out another group, improving Jack's odd by another 15% (due to a group being eliminated). There is a small chance Fate is scum bomb with StrangerCoug, but it's too farfetched to even consider, really, and doesn't affect the odds in my opinion. Anyway, combine this with the vengeful auto-lose, and you have a situation where it's far likelier for Jack to be scum with TonyMontanna. But only lynch him if SC flips scum other vig, otherwise you're going to be making a suboptimal lynch. Fifi is the right choice if SC flips vig, because Devotress only has a 17% chance.

Vote: TonyMontanna

[Hoopla]

WTF? When did StrangerCoug get hammered?

[Hoopla]

Wow, major

fos: Ellibereth

.

wolf, is tony scum? y/n?
if tony is scum, is it possible for hoopla to be scum?
on a scale of 1-10 how scummy is ckd looking at the moment?

[Hoopla]

Actually, *skims over the numbers*

Also, did you just assume you and Faraday would be NK'd?

O_o? What in the hell scum team doesn't kill da Govenah?

Well, it's the logical choice for scum. It's a decent assumption right? Why would they kill the bomb, and Elli has been wrong with his reads all game - so he'll be good for scum to keep around.

[Hoopla]

Yeah, Fate is town guys. That guarentees Jack scum.

[Hoopla]

What do you think about CKD? That hardcore lurker hasn't posted yet today!

[Hoopla]

Overall thoughts?
What would you change?
What would you keep?

I know the impact of scum being able to talk before the draft really helped. A lot. Even more than I thought it would - with that said, although the scumteam played well Hoopla by far gets my MVP of this game. He, really, ran this show and ran it well. Kudos.

Hi SpyreX, I love the PYP franchise - it's one of the most creative and exciting types of set-ups I've seen. Mostly because the town always has information and there is a real chance they can luck out with numbers and expose scum in their groups if they aren't careful.

For most of the game I argued number theory, because it's what I thought I'd do as town - and I genuinely believed it, which is perhaps why I looked convincing. Even when I'd get in debates with people about the importance of numbers, I took it personally and

wanted

to prove them wrong which gave amazing security to me because I could appear so sincere.

Contrary to what seems to be being said, scum didn't win this as convincingly as everyone thought, and the town were probably one smart lynch away from breaking the game wide open, which made it incredibly tense on the last day. My dwindling town stock actually worked to the teams' advantage in the fact that a soft defense on StrangerCoug reaffirmed Fate he must be scum, which was very rewarding to me, seeing such an obvious tactic work so fluently.

Fate played a stellar game, and it took a lot of nerve to not break down and claim after being wagoned to L-1. From the scum perspective, we had Fate pegged as bomb for basically almost the entire game, which made the top order fairly easy to target without fear.

~~

I think 17:5 (scum knowing each other pre-draft) is a far superior to any other PYP variant I've come across. Multiple scum groups introduces a large element of luck and makes it about cross-kills. 17:5 allows for many creative scum strategies, and because the town is only working against one force, they can predict with more cetainty, what is unfolding beneath their eyes. I hope 17:5 gets run again, but I'd get rid of some of the roles that scum tend to benefit from, such as governor (wayyyyy too powerful) and vengeful, and I'd use these;

Cop
Bomb
Bulletproof

3-shot vig

(to minimize the absolute, FUCK WE'RE SCREWED aspect of the scum getting the vig. Although, if not tampered with, I think towns will develop tactics to deal with the vig - ie; a townie going for vig at 3/4 to know the role is above them, or maybe vig claimed D1/2)

Tracker
Watcher

(Both of these are great town roles that serve no benefit to scum)

Doctor
Role-Cop
Weak Doctor

(good town confirming potential)

Roleblocker
Neighbouriser
1-shot Redirector

(more value to the town, potentially moving a kill onto scum)

Jack-of-all-trades

(makes kill speculation more interesting wondering who it comes from - also more powerful to town than scum)

Nurse

(especially good if both doctor are in town - comes in as regular doctor)

Universal Back-up
Empowerer

In my opinion, there is enough power here for a town to overcome a beefed up scumteam. I also think in future PYP games, that if alignments are known pre-draft, it will put more pressure on scumteams to 'double up' on one number in the future, jeopardising their chances at good roles. This was a large reason why I pushed that theory so hard - if I got a mislynch on someone near the top on a good role (or my own lynch), it would mean town would be too scared to consider number analysis genuinely in the future. It was something we needed to do after we left ourselves very open all picking a different number.

A town clued in to number analysis can put a lot of pressure on scum pre-draft

feeling

like they have to double up, which is already a win for a town marginalising their roles chances. I really think as scum this game, we were able to exploit the numbers because nobody really understood/thought about them - but they actually contain a lot more merit and information than most would expect. Good towns should win this set-up more often than not, in my opinion.

I have some more thoughts about the game, and about what drove us to decide the things we did as scum. You might be surprised to know we strongly considered doubling/tripling up on one of our X numbers to get some protection from number analysis - thank god we didn't, because it is wayyyy easier to win just by trying to get as good as possible roles as you can. But in the future, this optimum scum strategy will become more obvious, and teams will have a lot more at risk by opting for this tactic, and may very well have to double up to give themselves some safety (a town bonus).

[Hoopla]

Our scum-QT had almost 600 posts of hardcore planning. I'm happy to post it if my scumbuddies want it revealed.

[Hoopla]

I still think if this set-up was run again with slightly tweaked roles, the town would have a much better chance of winning. They were a bit unlucky getting a lot of vanillas, and lost decent powerroles early. With a game now played under this set-up, I think future scum teams would not be able to pull off some of the things they did this game with any certainty (ie; gambling and taking the vig at 7th place, and picking 5 different X numbers without any real worry).

[Hoopla]

Our scum-QT had almost 600 posts of hardcore planning. I'm happy to post it if my scumbuddies want it revealed.

I'd really like to see it, if only to fully appreciate the genius that we were up against.

This is all I have to offer: http://www.quicktopic.com/43/H/spQEsffKE3HA

I don't need Faraday's permission because he's lying scum

I've already seen that - we had Faraday update us with screenshots.

[Hoopla]

I'm linking this game when someone brings up number theory in the next pick your power

The funny thins is if we'd followed Hoopla's plan it'd have been a COMPLETELY different and harder game for the scum

Well yah, would have hit a scum day 1 on socrates, and would have made whose the vig alot easier to figure out.
But still, this game did a good job proving that scum are all over the draftboard, knowing what 4 other people are going to pick doesn't put you any average amount higher in the draft.

You can't say if you were town, and were able to peak at 4 other people's numbers pre-game, it wouldn't improve your chances at getting a higher pick. Scum have this advantage 5 times, as they have 5 unique numbers that have the advantage of ruling out 4 possible number clashes for each number. You'd be surprised how much it helps. Though, for future games, scum doing this tactic is going to be more difficult to get away with, as town

now

know it is optimum scum strategy.

Also, here is our QT: http://www.quicktopic.com/43/H/HYZvf2WcGPe/p01.589

[Hoopla]

It's subject to fluctuation - this was just one small event. If scum had 4 picks in the bottom 10, it wouldn't prove that it is a bad scum strategy, just unlucky. There is an element of luck involved, but knowing a significant chunk of numbers does a lot to improve your chances.

Also, if I was offered 3 picks in the top 9 instead of taking the chance at the draft, I'd take the first option. There was more scum than random at the top, so I think a number-lynching strategy would have been justified!

[Hoopla]

We thought number analysis was going to be more important than it was. It was why I argued it so much, because if I died it would look like scum were trying to manipulate a favourable number-position in the draft, which in turn would tarnish any number-based analysis and make it unreliable - a goal we wanted to achieve because we took the 'grab as many high picks as we can' method.

[Hoopla]

I think allowing the scum to talk about roles and numbers pregame hurt the town a lot. There has to be a middle ground on this issue.
I really liked the idea of trying to figure out which scum may have picked number wise but the scum got the best roles do to communication.

Do you think if it were run again, the town would be able to expect or predict what the scum were doing a bit better? I don't think pre-draft scum-talk would be a problem if the role list was altered a little bit to add some stronger potential town powers and take away a few good scum roles. Because things like cop, watcher, tracker, doctor, weak doctor etc. are all mostly useless for scum. Then watering down the vig to X-shot or removing things like governor/vengeful. Would that justify keeping the pre-draft planning? Because I think that is one of the best parts of the game.

[Hoopla]

Note: I do need to find the right balance to limit because watching the scum strategize pre-game was one of the better parts in my opinion.

I'm just not sure what the right balance is - part of it still that gets me is vig slipping that low; I consider that a first tier ability that should have been double-picked (like cop in a setup with no counters) before 7. Definitely over role cop and probably over tracker as well.

It's hard to imagine scum going this well next time if A) you change the amount of beneficial scum roles to beneficial town roles, and B) town having a better handle on number analysis and knowing what the scum optimum strategy is. I seriously think knowledge of how scum played this game would influence the scum next game, and may even pressure scum into doubling up on an X number - and if that is the case it's already a benefit for town.

I think the town played well overall, but failed to recognise important patterns, what the best scum strategy was, and how to break it. We all know the town were hampered by scum getting good scum roles, but some of this could have been prevented by intelligent town play. For example,

nobody

went for vig or cop which I found amazing - I daresay cop/vig vanillas in this set-up would have been quite handy for town to have. I think if I was town next game and drew 4th/5th pick, I'd go for the most powerful role if only as insurance to the town so they know where it is if it's in scum hands.

Another example is mid-table townies not trying to block good scum roles like vengeful/governor/empowerer which is just as important as getting town information. This is also the reason why we used our first pick to take cop - even though it gave us nothing as scum, it can do more potential damage to us, than we can do damage with a scum motivated role.

I also think a chain is as strong as it's weakest link, and successful towns won't win often when they have a large chunk of players underperforming. I think TM/CKD/Pom/wolf/FeFiFoFum/Porkens were all easy lynch choices for scum to take because they were lurking and not really reading. Maybe I'm being too critical, but I wouldn't expect to win as town if ~1/3 of your fellow townies are asleep.

I might be biased, but I really don't think this set-up is unbalanced if you include the right role combinations. There's no point having the draft if you're going to make it entirely random and not know alignments beforehand. You might as well just do it all yourself and give out roles that way. Scum are the informed minority and work together for everything in the game - this shouldn't be different at all. One of the most enterprising features of this set-up is guessing what scum chose and whether they're high/low in the draft. It gives the game an amazing start, with actual information on D1 to use which is so rare in other games.

I'd prefer adding an extra townie or two to keep the scum-talk draft if people

really

think it was unbalanced. But seriously, it can be fixed with a bit more care towards what roles are allowed in the game. When is the next one SpyreX? Are you doing one for the 08 scummers?

[Hoopla]

To be honest, adding more townies or even masons to the set-up feels like an ineloquent solution. I genuinely believe balance issues could be fixed by smart role selections. 17:5 is a fair ratio when scum don't have vig/governor or vig/empowerer combos. There needs to be role combinations available to encourage creative scum play, but nothing that can break the game.

There are some roles in this set-up which drastically favour scum - there are a few that favour town, however they were eliminated quite early in this game which made a large difference in the end. I've gone to the effort of reviewing each role used in the game, using a scoring system (0 through to 5) to rank how powerful each role is to each alignment. There are a lot of factors involved, most notably how to score roles that go well in combinations and roles that are good for lone use. Here are my scores (ranked by value to the town);

(

5

) (

0

)

Cop

(

4

) (

1

)

Bomb

(

4

) (

1

)

Watcher

(

4

) (

2

)

Bulletproof

(

3

) (

1

)

Tracker

(

3

) (

2

)

Universal Backup

(

3

) (

3

)

Role Cop

(

3

) (

5

)

Vig

(

2

) (

1

)

Doc

(

2

) (

4

)

Vengeful

(

1

) (

0

)

Bodyguard

(

1

) (

0

)

Neighborizer

(

1

) (

3

)

Roleblocker

(

0

) (

4

)

Empowerer

(

0

) (

5

)

Governor

In my opinion, there was too much firepower to choose from for scum to sculpt a formidable team. Governor, Empowerer, Roleblocker, Vengeful, Rolecop, Vig all favour the scumteam more than town - and town can't be expected to cut all of these roles off. There still needs to pro-scum roles for them to consider in the draft, but some of these were too potent, especially if drafted in combination with each other.

Here are some roles I've considered for the set-up that I have also scored for you;

(

4

) (

0

)

Weak Doctor (Protects player if they are town, dies if protects scum - great town confirmer)

(

2

) (

3

)

1-shot vig

(

3

) (

4

)

2-shot vig

(

4

) (

3

)

JOAT (1 cop, 1 vig, 1 RB, 1 doc)

(

2

) (

1

)

Nurse (Becomes a standard doctor in the event ANY doctor dies - could be a worthwhile role with a Doc/Weak Doc in the set-up)

(

3

) (

3

)

Jailkeeper

(

2

) (

2

)

2-shot redirector (A one-way busdriver I believe - choose a player and if they have an action, you direct it to someone else of your choice)

(

4

) (

2

)

Gunsmith (Finds mafia/cop/vig/role cop - very handy role for town, and even for mafia)

~~

And finally, from this list, here is the set-up I would propose for the next game;

(

5

) (

0

)

Cop

(

4

) (

0

)

Weak Doctor (Protects player if they are town, dies if protects scum - great town confirmer)

(

4

) (

1

)

Bomb

(

4

) (

1

)

Watcher

(

4

) (

2

)

Bulletproof

(

4

) (

2

)

Gunsmith (Finds mafia/cop/vig/role cop - very handy role for town, and even for mafia)

(

4

) (

3

)

JOAT (1 cop, 1 vig, 1 RB, 1 doc)

(

3

) (

1

)

Tracker

(

3

) (

2

)

Universal Backup

(

3

) (

3

)

Role Cop

(

3

) (

4

)

2-shot vig

(

2

) (

1

)

Doc

(

1

) (

0

)

Neighborizer

(

1

) (

3

)

Roleblocker

(

0

) (

4

)

Empowerer

The mafia's combo potential has been minimised, with the vig being watered down to a 2-shot vig. This removes some of the swing in the game - a large part of why scum won this game, was the continuous double kills. Capping this role is a good insurance clause in case scum get it again. Are the big inclusions of some of these investigation and confirming roles too much, and now too town favoured? It's possible, as scum don't have as much strike power to counter a town that lucks out and gets a lot of good roles.

If anyone else wants to offer their opinions on the roles, feel free to chime in!

[Hoopla]

Bodyguard is a bit underrated, imo. If I had chosen that, and guarded RayFrost after he was outed, it would have been the equivalent of me "forcing" my bomb on scum.

Yes, perhaps. It scored a bit less because it's a role that is only worth something in specific situations (when you have a confirmed town, or power role alive) - even then it's prone to the empowerer. It also scored a bit lower because I deemed it unlikely players would actually go for this role.

~also i'd want to play too much to consider co-modding.

[Hoopla]

The reason for the JOAT was an additional cop/vig role so the town has some power against a scum team claiming the cop/vig again. Why don't you like them for PYP?

[Hoopla]

I think, really, for the empowerer to work (and I do love that role) there needs to be more scum-sided roles (framer, driver, etc) so that there is a legitimate reason for town to utilize it.

I don't understand this point. How does this minimise the influence of the empowerer?

I think there needs to be one or two powerful roles that favour scum-use over town-use. The empowerer is still thwarted by the bomb, but maybe like the vig, an X-shot empowerer could be a solution.

Like Jack said, I think it can be easy to go too far the other way, overcorrecting a set-up. As scum, I'd be scared of a town with a bomb/BP/cop combination without an empowerer.

[Hoopla]

Again, I think this is town error in not recognising a powerful scum role and taking it themselves, rather than a balancing issue. Cop is a detrimental role to scum if we allowed it to get into town hands. Being alive for ~3 days is enough to rip the game wide open - and although we didn't gain anything for scum-use by taking it, we felt we needed to stop this problem by taking it before town could hurt us with it.

I think the empowerer works on similar grounds. Sensible town-play stops the value of the empowerer. Townies from 6th-11th should consider going for it, to try and get it, or at least narrow down where it is. Or conversely, the town should ask the empowerer to claim D1 to work out if it is town or scum. There are plenty of ways the town has to minimise the influence of this role.

[Hoopla]

Yeah, that is really bastard imo. How is the town supposed to be able to figure that out? I think the set-up involves a decent amount of chance already - I don't think having pre-determined roles in specific draft spots improves the game.

I think having a 2-shot vig is the most efficient way of dealing with the vig problem. It can still be quite useful for scum, but won't completely blow the town away either.

What about a mason recruiter for a good town role? They get a 1-shot chance at trying to draft a town player as a mason. If the player is scum, the recruiter dies - if the player is town they become confirmed masons to each other. If scum drafts this role, it can't be used.

[Hoopla]

Ehh, no hidden.

I guess I meant more "town reasons to have an empowerer aside from stopping the scum from having it"

Which, I think, was part of why I liked 2 scumgroups - at that point most abilities benefit scum and town versus just stopping the other from having them.

Ew, multiple scum groups are gross. Don't do it.

[Hoopla]

PYP 1 was multiple, thank you very much.

I'm still toying with ideas for it, overall.

Yeah, I know!

That's why I didn't play it.

[Hoopla]

I liked the scum configuration of PYP I more than II. 3 per team plus the SK organically limits the power scum has without crippling them.
I don't like limiting roles. Maybe make the vig odd-night only.
Needs moar jailer, that role rules.

Odd-night vig is good. Probably better than two-shot - I approve.

~~

SpyreX, multiple scum groups aren't fun because there's a built-in balancing mechanism of cross-kills which are totally beyond town control. If no scum are killed at night, it's possible to lose without mislynching (or mislynching once or twice) which, although unlikely, sucks. Then going the other way, it's stupid to win if scum have killed each other for you without doing anything. Killing scum should the goal of the town. To me, it feels much more like a game of chance, but yet creates unnecessary complexity for town when you need to look for specific group tells, and need to juggle lynches.

Then, from a scum perspective, you have to alter your game to avoid frequent night-kills, which discourages flambouyent gambits that draw attention to yourself, and discourages scum from trying to appear too town. It's very rewarding putting in a lot of work as scum to filter your posts and make fabricated cases seem plausible if you get the result of looking town, and thinking 'yeah, I'm going to be hard to lynch'. There's less incentive to do this as scum, as you're trying to avoid two extremes (too townie, too scummy), when I think playing scum is about trying to fool the town into thinking you're one of them.

For me, one of the best things about being scum is the us vs. them thing going on. Town is trying to work out what you're doing, and you're trying to coerce the town to submit themselves to your hidden agenda. Multiple scumteams fucks this over, because there is so much that can go wrong. There is no way to predict what will happen, and makes attempt to lay long-term plans useless because the game is swingier.

Scum vs. town just feels like a purer game to me, which will on average produce a better quality game where you can say the best team won. As town in multiple scum group games, I feel like I have less control over the outcome as chance is more prominent. Plus having 3+ factions means that every player has a lower chance of winning overall. Why is having more losers better?

Say no to multiple scum groups.

[Hoopla]

Cobalt; what is your opinion on the new drafting system? is it better or worse letting the scum talk to strategize a plan?

[Hoopla]

Do you think if the same drafting system was run again, scum would be under pressure to consider doubling up on an X number? Or do you think the town would use number theory more effectively to catch scum?

[Hoopla]

i think it really damages scum too much to double-up. That's two roles that are almost guarenteed to be in the bottom half of the draft. Even though that might get you town points, it's easily undone by an investigation or just bad play, which makes it not worth it.

if scum double up it's probably a bonus for town, because it means they likelier have a better collection of roles to win without needing number analysis. therefore, if numbers are to be used, they should assume that scum have spread over 5 numbers, as it doesn't cause too much damage if that assumption is wrong.

[Hoopla]

watering down the vig role, and smarter town play (ie; going for vig in 3rd-5th to gain knowledge where it is, or get it yourself) can easily counter this. i think making the vig claim d1 is probably the smartest play the town can make.

[Hoopla]

if empowerer goes, then BP has to be only one shot. bomb and BP is a lot to handle for scum, especially when vengeful and governor are going too. there's not many useful roles there for scum all of a sudden.

[Hoopla]

Doc is a viable role again if empowerer goes. It can actually stop kills.

[Hoopla]

I don't think it's that breakable. In that case, the scum just needs to hide the vig for 2-3 nights, then they can pick off ANY role that they want. It will vary, but I think massclaim would only be a slight benefit to the town.

Also, in the future, if you run the game with unisex roles, rather than clear scum/clear town roles, it would be hard to distinguish which is fake.

In Faraday's case of claiming the doctor, it's a gamble going for it, but then if by the time you've got to say the 7th pick, it is probably safe for Jack to claim doctor confirming those two together. I don't think it's as breakable as you think.

The way to fix it is by making roles that you don't have to be scared to hide. Even then, there can be pro-town motivation to take some scum roles - all massclaim does is really confirm the tracker/watcher. Which is a minimal early advantage.