Pick Your Power II - Looks like the wine is gone (SCUM WIN)

[Jack]

Let's save the speculation on which numbers the mafia picked until later. It sucks as a game starter, because scum are just as good as town at strategic type arguments, but people get stuck on proving their theory and end up omgus'ing and voting based on bs. Then once that talk is exhausted, there isn't anything real to go on, and the game stymies.

Vote:Tony Montana

for picking (1,1) in the draft = mafia

[Jack]

or the fact he is glossign over two other people that also did (1,1)

I

glossed

over it. There is no evidence that I'm

glossing

or

will gloss

over it.

[Jack]

Why are guys asking me questions, instead of the other 21 people?

[Jack]

Why are guys asking me questions, instead of the other 21 people?

I like your avtar. It turns me on.

Now answer my question

.

No. Now what?

Why are you avoiding my simple question? I am just curious about your vote is all. Many of the other 21 people haven't posted just yet so I have nothing to ask them just yet.

Very well. Why are you asking me instead of dramonic, Cobalt, RayFrost, Hoopla, and porkens?

Especially since Faraday had just asked me the question. Why ask again?

[Jack]

bonjour! Okay I didn't get to play in the first random number game, but it sounds from what I hear that the highest probable numbers for mafia are the single x values, I find it shocking and still dont know how I got the draft pick i did.

fos: Socrates for picking first

unvote:tony montana, vote:FeFiFoFum

Socrates didn't use a single X value. It sounds like you just picked up random bits from the thread without quite understanding them/thinking them through. Why do you think it's suspicious that Socrates picked first?

[Jack]

Or maybe I'm confused. Hoopla talks about Singular X values (ones that only got picked once). That's probably what FeFi means by single x, I had it as single digit.

[Jack]

Unvote: Socrates
Vote: Jack

for dodging questions.

StrangerCoug, you should know better...

My opinion on the numbers debate: There is nothing to be gained in terms of scum hunting from the draft order, even if the scum had been able to talk before submiting numbers (which it doesn't sound like they were able to,to me) it's just a huge wifom trap.

Yes, this is somewhat my position. It could possibly be useful at some point, but it's a terrible starting place.

[Jack]

I don't think that scum would only pick the 1-9 numbers. I was confused about what FeFi was saying. I thought he was saying scum would pick the smaller X numbers, but he probably was paraphrasing what hoopla said about the "only picked once" (singular) X numbers. His post still seems weird...

[Jack]

Hoopla, I was scum a while back in a game where everyone sent in information, and the scum could coordinate. The town spent the first five pages discussing it, and ended up concluding that one of my partners was innocent. I don't remember if the game stagnated after the setup talk was done, but it's always a risk. Like right now, how are you supposed to get a legitimate scum or town read off of this post?

If it's useful, it will be later in the game.

[Jack]

It applies now because we don't have any other information to work with. We don't have wagons/votes to analyse yet. Number analysis eclipses an unnecessary RVS.

We have Fate at L-3, which is a wagon you had a big part of. You thought he was suspicious for reasons not regarding number analysis.

In contrast to dramonic's (seemingly genuine) clueless response about the drafting system, this seems like Fate is piggybacking on this mindset to look town. The lame, forced question at the end quantifies this, and just looks like unnecessary words to fill a post that might otherwise had stood out.

Saying we don't have any information to work on contradicts your accusation of him, so it sounds like your accusation wasn't genuine.

unvote:FeFi, vote:Hoopla

[Jack]

Jack, I think you're taking my words too literally. There are never times when you have 'no' information. You always start a game with knowledge of a player, your role and the previous posts. I'm stating that numbers are a primary source of information - they should hold more importance than whatever scumtell you can generate from a few pages of voting.

Thank you for conveniently cutting out the bit about numbers from that quote you posted of mine, to make it look like

that

was my sole reasoning for my vote.

Fair enough, I didn't copy that bit, but it was really just a postscript on your main point.

But I'm not taking your words too literally, it would be you speaking too literally if you get what I mean. Or, you forgot about your case on fate, leading to you saying we didn't have any information to analyze.

Your plan to lynch the top drafters is also faulty. There may be more mafia, but that's also where a lot of the best pro town roles are.

We lynch the scummiest person.

[Jack]

unvote:Hoopla

The original case on Fate is quite decent, but I have to feel that mafia would try and make it runaway at some point, to possibly get Fate to claim, since he drafted 2nd. Too many people on it to tell, but bouncy looks the worst

lol vote Fate

"lol" as in "lol, this is easy?".

I voted for you because you said something that I don't think any townie with a brain would say.

I wasn't going off of Hoopla. I didn't even read anything she posted until like an hour ago.

What did fate say that you don't think any townie would say, and how come you skipped reading hoopla's posts? What posts did you read?

What is the Fate case? I just got done reading him in ISO and i still don't see whatever the 9 people voting him see ><

This sounds like mafia trying to distance from a wagon. Saying the fate bandwagon is bad is ok, but the "I'm so townie I don't even understand it, and btw I did an ISO read because I'm really looking for scum" sounds off to me. Especially since Fate did say something suspicious, and if wolf had reread the thread he would have seen it plain as day.

vote:wolframnhart"

[Jack]

I didn't put words in your mouth. The part in quotes was the feel I got from your post.

If you actually wanted to know why I singled out tonymontana you would have reread and come up with a theory. If you actually wanted to know what the case on fate was, you would reread the part where he was accused, not just an ISO.

So my proposed theory: you are acting like you are interested in the scumhunting, but aren't actually. Or at least you are acting more interested than you are. There is a mismatch.

[Jack]

You want me to come up with a "theory" as to why you voted TM fine here is one

But this is exactly my point. You are coming up with this

now

. Before, you were "just curious" and didn't want to ignore it. But why wouldn't you have some theory? The very fact that you think it is worth questioning should mean that you have some opinion about it.

Same with your comments about my FeFi vote. You don't try and look into why I voted him. But you would

have

to do that in order to think it was scummy that I didn't unvote him. You would have to think that the thing I was confused about was central to my reason to vote him.

Now you are making a case on me, based on the fact that my first post random vote contradicts my statements made about not voting based on numbers. This is the first time you have brought this up, despite the fact that my very first post contained the contradiction, and you didn't question it then. You only questioned why I picked tm and not the other 2.

My original point stands: you ask several times about the Fate case, and make sure to mention you did an ISO, but a simple piece of rereading would have shown you the case. The thread is only 7 pages.

It looks like you are just trying to pick out things that could be seen as suspicious, rather than actually suspecting. You say that things are scummy or not scummy, but your actions don't show that you actually think that.

***************

For the points you brought up:

I thought FeFi's post was weird, and did understand it wrong the first time. But even with the alternate interpretation, he is still just grabbing reasons from the thread and fos'ing based on them. I still was, and still am interested in why that was.

I was entirely serious about the comment I made before voting tony. I don't think we should be voting based on numbers. But it's page one and I didn't want to be too serious so I threw in a bit of irony and picked TM at random.

[Jack]

The fate deal is in the weird position. It was a good page 2 case, that was bandwaggoned justifiable since there wasn't much to go on. But it's certainly not worth 9 votes now. We should see some shift off of him as people find new suspects, preferably to wolfram imo.

[Jack]

Hoopla's analysis is flawed. Townie and mafia are both trying to get the top spot. It's very unpredictable, you can't calculate the probabilities like you are. The fact that mafia probably picked 1-1-1-1-1/2 only makes it a little less unpredictable.

I don't think it's good play this early to force a claim from the 2nd drafter. Are we going to lynch him if he claims one of the top roles? No.

[Jack]

The number and role speculations are distracting me from actual scumhunting, which is really what I want to do. Everybody wanted the top slot, motives for picking roles might have been for keeping the other side for getting it, blah, blah, blah (though I'll probably argue for roles other than VT we should lynch if claimed). Make me stop and think, not stop and give up.

Let's save the speculation on which numbers the mafia picked until later. It sucks as a game starter...Then once that talk is exhausted, there isn't anything real to go on, and the game stymies.

See, prophetic words.

Hoopla's math is flawed. A townie trying for the top spot doesn't know what numbers 21 other people are going to pick. A mafia going for the top spot doesn't know what numbers 17 other people are going to pick (assuming they didn't double up).

Nine numbers were picked, so lets take that as our set (since people weren't picking randomly).

For a townie, the odds of picking a number that no one else picked:

(8/9)^21 = 8.4%

For mafia:

(8/9)^17 = 13.5%

Now, there were 17 townies with an 8.4% chance at getting a singular number, and 5 (or 3) mafia with a 13.5% chance at getting a singular number. So there should be on average 1.42 townies with a singular number and either .675 mafia or .405 mafia. With a lot of variance.

***************

What does that tell us? That this should be the END of number analysis, that we shouldn't lynch someone based on the number analysis because of what I said at the beginning and what StrangerCoug says here. It's just going to distract from scumhunting.

p.s. Hoopla, don't quibble with the math. Tell us your suspects based on in thread stuff.

[Jack]

I was beginning to think no one had read that. Much like the case on wolfram.

unvote, vote:Hoopla

FeFi is scummy, but on the level of bouncy.bouncy or fate (after that one post, he looks better since).

Hoopla's number analysis is plain wrong, and the way she came into this day pushing it hard smells like the top 2 are town and she wants them to claim/get them lynched. I honestly gave no thought to that kind of analysis pregame, it's obvious she did. Who else would have thought about strategy like that except the mafia?

[Jack]

In general a case made on a persistent behavior/approach of someone is much stronger than one made on a single comment, which is where the fate/pom/FeFi/bouncy are at right now. Fate has looked a lot more townie since his first post, which speaks to the wisdom of pushing for more content rather than lynching. FeFi and bouncy seem to be refusing to give more.

Pom looked bad for the "we don't want to force a claim"/"claim now, fate" post combo. Fate was only at L-1 because of the scummy vote by FeFi, he wasn't at a big risk for being lynched and pom already said the reasons why it was bad for him to claim. Basically if you are in the top spots you are either the roles the mafia most want to nightkill or the roles they least want to try and nightkill. They have a very vested interest in outing those roles.

But that brings me back to the Hoopla case. In ISO 1, pom voted hoopla, presumably for pushing number analysis she didn't agree with, and for that one post that cobalt responded to with the picture. But she hos'd me and fate. The hos on fate is weird given what pom said about hoopla, and the hos on me is weird since I was saying the same things about hoopla that pom was.

Now unvote hoopla? I'm seeing pom and hoopla as scum partners.

His whole lets lynch hoopla because this could be a scum ploy and they may not have gotten high on the list is looking might OMGUS after he agrees that scum could communicate and get their numbers straight to get higher on the list.

It does smell like a scum ploy to me though. Her math is definitely wrong, although I'm not sure that's material. But she jumped right in with "scum would have been thinking about this", in a way that really seems that

she

was thinking about it. I can definitely see scum pushing for a lynch/claim of the top drafters. She also should have realized her math is wrong by now, but I think she's doesn't want to backtrack.

It's possible I'm falling into the trap I warned about (voting for someone as a result of arguing strategy) but I was thinking more about the teleporter game when I said that, not about someone pushing for a lynch/claim.

[Jack]

...

[Jack]

Hoopla needs to be lynched. There is no way her flat out rejection of the objections to her analysis is anything other than deliberate.

[Jack]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 12

Bouncy.Bouncy

- 3 - RedCoyote, Devotress, Faraday - (L-9)

Cobalt

- 1 - The1fifi - (L-11)

Dramonic

- 1 - TonyMontana - (L-11)

Fate

- 3 - Bouncy.Bouncy, Dramonic, FeFiFoFum - (L-9)

FeFiFoFum

- 2 - Rayfrost, wolframnhart - (L-10)

Hoopla

- 1 - Jack - (L-11)

Pomegranate

- 3 - Socrates, Farside, Fate - (L-9)

Socrates

- 2 - Hoopla, StrangerCoug - (L-10)

The1fifi

- 4 - Ellibereth, DocPotter, Cobalt, Porkens - (L-8)

Players not voting: curiouskarmadog, Pomegranate

Jacks Lurking.
He's posting in his other 2 games on a regular basis.

Replaced into a 25 page game in one and did an ISO of everyone playing in another.

I don't agree with lynching newb town lurkers.

Hoopla is being more than stubborn.

[Jack]

Questions for reference:

1) How many people here thought about what strategy the mafia would use when picking numbers before the game?
2) How many think my math in ISO 16 is wrong?

If hardly any people do then it points very strongly to hoopla being scum. And when an experienced player is scummy you always lynch them over a scummy sounding newb player who is lurking. Newb town often lurk.

[Jack]

ATM, I'm flippin between Jack and Hoopla appearing slightly scummy for pushing optomised math and not looking at the their assumptions properly. Could be scum trying to push theories affected by known scum choices.

Well, that's what I'm accusing hoopla of (gunning for the top drafters with bad math).

My assumptions are fine (maybe calculating it out of 9 instead of 15 is not accurate, but it's really just a nod towards the fact that we weren't picking randomly). You can't analyze the results by looking purely at the results, that's not how probability works:

1, 1, 1, 2, 1

That's the result from random.org I just got. So is the probability of getting "1" 80%? "No, it was 50% and that was just variance" you say. Wrong, it was 33%, I told it to pick 5 numbers between 1 and 3.

You're trying to show the chance that scum picked a singular number based on the results. You should look at the chance of scum picking singular numbers based on what they had to choose from.

I'm confused because the first part is what you and hoopla are doing, and the second part is what I did.

Here's the problem with your analysis:


Let's say that by chance 18 people picked one number, and 4 people picked single numbers. Now let's assume that the scum didn't double up on any of the numbers. That would mean that the 4 singular numbers have to be mafia. This is the essence of your guys analysis.

Problem is, the fact that the numbers turned out like that in that scenario makes it extremely probably that the mafia double/triple/quadrupled up. Your assumption that they didn't would mislead you terribly in this scenario.

((1/15)^14)/((1/15)^17) = 3375

14 townies picking the same number is 3375 times more likely than 17 townies picking the same number.

****

I can actually see now how you could reasonably get confused though.

unvote

I can buy hoop coming into the game thinking about strategy as a townie, that's not damning if it doesn't come attached to bad number analysis.

[Jack]

Pom is still a bit scummy, but less so without the hoopla connection. Not willing to vote there, much better to wait until we get a clearer picture.

I don't see any scummy fifi posts.

FeFi should be lynched. He pretends to be new in his first post, when he gets under pressure he pulls out the "I had an account on here before, bandwagons on me are pointless".

These seem to be the popular choices so far.

I would add:

dramonic--every post is hiding behind the number analysis.

wolfram--have a gut feel that his posting is fake. I feel that I demonstrated this earlier. He kept pushing me on the "answer the question" thing and later showed that he had no real reason for it. When I went after him he acted like he found me really suspicious and "really liked his vote on me". That all disappeared and he hasn't mentioned me since.

And again, this is just a scummy answer:

1)I did not think about strategy the mafia would use, heck i didn't even know there was strat to it i just sent in numbers.
2)I don't think anything of the numbers math thing at this time.

1) is worded to persuade us he's town, 2) is avoiding commenting on the issue but leaving it open with a press secretary "no comment at this time" deal.

vote:wolfram

[Jack]

itt more fif pressure is needed

You're being anti-town.

[Jack]

With nine result groups, and either three, four, or five* of them containing scum the chance of any group containing at least one scum is 33%, 44%, or 55% respectively.

Why would each group have the same chance? Scum have 17 people who could pick their number, town have 21.

Let's do an example. 2 mafia, 98 townies. After picks we have 5 groups.

1) 1 person
2) 1 person
3) 8 people
4) 10 people
5) 80 people

So with 5 result groups, and 2 of them containing scum, is the chance of group 5 containing scum 20%? And the chance of group 1 containing scum 20%?

I argued against the number analysis because it was being used to wagon fate unreasonably. I bring it up again now to gage how likely it is that hoop believed her numbers. And if you remember my initial post I didn't say it was worthless, just that it was a much smaller increase than hoopla was suggesting.

[Jack]

It's a direct comparison. If you really don't believe me you could play with a random number generator in excel for a while, I don't know how to prove it to you.

[Jack]

I'm glad it's a direct comparison Jack. Now what are you trying to get at. WHat actually are you trying to say.

Plain english please.

I changed the numbers to make it intuitive. But the process used is the same. Here's another alternative:

1,000,000 townies and 2 mafia. Picking numbers between 1 and three.

1) 1 person
2) 500,000 people
3) 500,001 people

Ignore how unlikely the number breakdown is. Isn't it clear that the the 2 mafia are probably in groups 2 and 3?

So with our nine groups, you can't say that each is equally likely to contain mafia. Some are more likely than others, and that's why socrates and fate don't each have a 50% chance of being mafia.


************

unvote, vote:FeFi

FeFi is the best lurker lynch, he lied as well.

[Jack]

It's a deadline driven lynch of someone who pretended they were new and is purposefully lurking.

[Jack]

bonjour! Okay I didn't get to play in the first random number game, but it sounds from what I hear that the highest probable numbers for mafia are the single x values, I find it shocking and still dont know how I got the draft pick i did. fos: Socrates for picking first

i did mistype my post, I was agreeing with the before statement of hoopla, since scum could talk before hand they were allowed to make sure they didnt pick the same number

****

Does everyone know who my account was before my ban? This is my account after my ban is up. You should all know that bandwagons are pointless on me if you know what my origin is.

There's a pretty marked difference between the first 2 and the last don't you think?

Was it widely known that he played here before?

[Jack]

You're right, he did. I'm back to just having no idea what's up with that first post.

[Jack]

vote:wolf

Don't have more to say than I've said.

[Jack]

Bouncy is sounding townie with his last three posts.

[Jack]

That is not a hammer. Please hammer.

Why was a hammer asked for when FFF not only on V/LA but no claim had occured?

What would you have done?

Does everyone know who my account was before my ban? This is my account after my ban is up. You should all know that bandwagons are pointless on me if you know what my origin is.

[Jack]

The vote counts being quoted have very little useful information. You have to look at the thread and see where the FeFi wagon started (with faraday switching from bouncy). But neither of them seem scummy to me. What happens when two townies are being voted for lurking the day before the deadline? There's a run of votes on one of them. There would have to be something in particular to make the run of votes seem scummy.

[Jack]

Wolf is better. What has ray done?

Wolf repeatedly "didn't see the case on Fate" but found FeFi suspicious yesterday and bouncy today. If he can see the cases on them he should have seen the case on fate. I don't see him mentioning bouncy at all yesterday.

ISO him, you'll see he got on both wagons at the start of the day and didn't budge/hasn't budged. Only 2 posts today in fact.

[Jack]

Quoted for truth. Have a reason to target people.

I retract what I said about bouncy looking town. This very much sounds like his scum partner is the role cop. The scum partner had a reason for picking ray frost, but bouncy doesn't know what it is-->so he claims to have used random.org.

[Jack]

Why didn't you vote bouncy?

I want to see what people have to say before I put him at L-1.

[Jack]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 10

Bouncy.Bouncy

- 8 - Fate, wolframnhart, RedCoyote, StrangerCoug, Faraday, Farside, Rayfrost, The1fifi - (L-2)

Pomegranate

- 2 - Socrates, Porkens - (L-8)

Rayfrost

- 1 - Hoopla - (L-9)

The1fifi

- 1 - Bouncy.Bouncy - (L-9)

wolframnhart

- 2 - Jack, Ellibereth - (L-8)

Players not voting: curiouskarmadog, Devotress, DocPotter, Pomegranate, TonyMontana

I think he's scum.

It's a bit hypocritical, but I'd like to see what Elli says. He was the other person besides me defending bouncy as town.

[Jack]

I'm intrigued by the possibility of a wolf wagon, but I don't think it's going to happen. Not sure what farside is doing here.

unvote:wolf, vote:bouncy

[Jack]

RedCoyote kill seems like a scumkill--a blatant one. Removing bouncy as role cop freed them up to kill who they wanted. Searching for power roles in the top of the draft. As town vig you don't kill that high.

4 of the top 6 dead. Seems like the scum have the vig and and possibly the bomb since they don't seem worried about it.

Vote:Socrates

Fate seems pretty town to me, and got to L-1 a bit quickly day 1.

If anyone tried for vig and failed, we can get an idea where it is. Or we (the town as a whole) can ask the vig to claim, and if he doesn't, assume he's scum.

[Jack]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 9

DocPotter

- 1 - DocPotter - (L-8)

Socrates

- 2 - StrangerCoug, Jack - (L-7)

wolframnhart

- 3 - Ellibereth, Farside, The1fifi - (L-6)

Players not voting: curiouskarmadog, Devotress, Faraday, Fate, Hoopla, Pomegranate, Porkens, Socrates, TonyMontana, wolframnhart

Socrates is town. Wolf needs to be wagonned. NOW

Vote: Wolf

Why is socrates town? Wolf needs to be lynched, but if scum has the vig that's our priority. So we need to look at the top of the draft. Actually,

unvote

Let's wait until someone claims to have tried for vig and failed. If no one does or they are way down the list it creates the possibility that scum went for it on a low pick. In that case wolf is the best lynch.

[Jack]

I was thinking that if someone like coug or fifi had gone for it it would really narrow it down, make things easy.

The problem with socrates claiming is that town has to claim their role, but scum can claim a role that one of their partners has. But there's only a few plausible roles to take at #1 I guess, and they would probably be gone by later in the draft.

Scum could have an empowerer.

This is your comment on the day??

fos:devotress

[Jack]

It is prudent to wait a bit, in case of counterclaim. But it really doesn't seem like a desperate "claim cop to get true cop to reveal themselves" claim.

Vote:Pom

[Jack]

Well there's that then.

vote pomegranate

If we luck out completly, we will have a doc and pom will be the empowerer.

Empowerer would be ideal, this scenario makes pom almost a must lynch.

W8 ffs!! We should wait for a counterclaim or for someone who went after cop and turned out vanilla!

Socrates has first spot, so the 2nd part here makes no difference. We shouldn't quicklynch, true.

[Jack]

Fair enough on the unvote because of l-1, but fifi's reaction here is screaming scumbuddy. 913 particularly.

I can see devotress as scum too.

[Jack]

Last thought: If Socrates is town, and I'm town, Jack is 80-90% scum. Explains why he went so far to discredit the number theory (through math of his own), and tried to shed doubt on Hoopla as "scum trying to mislead town with her numbers."

I also think he's the scum vig based off the draft, so he's definitely a higher priority than Wolf tommorow.

If everyone up top is town, it makes it much more likely that the scum would push lynches based on numbers. I'm only against hoopla's interpretation of the number theory anyway.

[Jack]

Vote:Soc

Quicklynch on the chance that they don't get time to send in the kills? I don't think there are any worthwhile pro town role actions at this point.

[Jack]

Vote:Soc

Quicklynch on the chance that they don't get time to send in the kills? I don't think there are any worthwhile pro town role actions at this point.

Doctor.

But their kill will be empowered...

[Jack]

Socrates is very likely not the scum vig, as he as essentially spontaneously combusted, which isn't something scum would do to their vig.

If the mafia have governor, then they get another two free kills tonight. And then even if we lynch the vig they win. Soc seems pretty carefree anyway.

Quicklynching would help more than hurt I think, although a lot of time has passed now.

[Jack]

While the theory Socrates just posted makes some sense, I would have faked a different PR, probably doctor. Maybe empowerer if I figured there was a Mafia RB running around.

So yeah. I don't know how to take it, but there were better ways of gambiting than that.

No, it really doesn't make sense, and he's obviously joking around.

fos:StrangerCoug

This sounds like a scumbuddy trying to pretend he isn't sure soc is scum.

[Jack]

Socrates was going to be lynched because everyone figured scum was vig. That's why he claimed cop with a guilty.

Nine townies dead-->8 townies 5 mafia living. Lynching a townie is almost guaranteed a scum win.

A mass claim helps us more tomorrow. Today it just lets the mafia know who to kill. Even if the governor was someone really scummy, they could prevent their own lynch just as easy, so switching to them instead of soc wouldn't do any good.

[Jack]

In my opinion, if the governor is town, they need to claim now, so we can assess if they are likely town or not. This gives us a better understanding of how urgently we need to find the vig, and how long we have left. If we can safely assume the governor is town, then it gives us a bit more security.

What does everyone else think? Having the governor hidden only benefits scum, because if the governor is town, they are not going to use the power anyway. So, even by outing the governor we don't lose anything by it claiming.

Isn't townie governor saving themselves in lylo potentially a good play for us? I don't think massclaim is good for the town today.

If scum have governor then they basically win.

Soc is the only person we can lynch that we

know

won't lose the us the game. In the number one spot he has a very good chance of being vig too, especially since he only claimed cop when it looked like he was going to be lynched.

[Jack]

I don't see the point in this today.

Socrates has a high chance of being vig, and he's scum which means we don't lose if we lynch him. If he's

not[/] the vig, then we get information about where the vig could be, depending on the role he flips. If he flips bomb, then it's almost proof that fate is the vig.

I think we have three shots to hit the vig, at least that's how it worked out in my head. We have to hit some kind of scum if we miss obviously.

[Jack]

You go: "Hmm Socrates explanation is gambit."
Sensible townie goes:"WHAT THE **** SOCRATES! YOU COST US A DEAD TOWNIE!"

Exactly...coug's reaction was very unnatural. His statement about "if we were both telling the truth" was weird as well. His arguments on this page seem designed to obscure that with dense/semantic argument. Example:

As for my believing The1Fifi is vig, see my response for #2. As for my believing you being vig, I remember saying how you and Socrates is more likely bomb than Jack. I don't recall picking one of you over the other.

[Jack]

Speedlynching would have been a good idea for town I think. It's at least not anti-town.

The governor should claim, because they are almost confirmed pro town now.

Coug is most likely the best lynch for today. He was sounding very much like soc's scumbuddy yesterday. The theory I'm working on is that Coug is the scum bomb and fate is the scumvig. Coug's bizzare "vanilla, went for bomb" claim yesterday looks like a setup for fate claiming bomb today. He even said that he thought I wasn't the bomb.

Fate has seemed townie, and could be though. If coug flips scum bomb, we get another lynch and will know that fate is the vig (or I will know anyway).

[Jack]

More thoughts. My role is vengeful lynchee, so someone is lying here:

soc--cop
fate--??
Jack--claimed vengeful
Coug--claimed vanilla, went for bomb
fifi--claimed vanilla, went for vig

I have my money on Coug/Fate, with fate being more likely vig (bad move for mafia to not take vig in top position), but coug more likely scum overall. I'm uncomfortable with the big wagon on fate day 1, that would take a painstaking reread to tell what the significance of it is though. Coug is the best lynch because he's probable scum, and could tell us that fate is the scumvig depending on his role flip.

There's a lot of scummy stuff in Coug's ISO, but I'll stick to the main point.

Initial vote for soc (after the rvs vote which was unvoted):

Yes I do, since Socrates has the top slot and Fate is right behind him.

Unvote: Jack
Vote: Socrates

Partly that, partly because of my memory of getting quicklynched as SK on Day 1 last time for stating I didn't see a case on a player I was voting as I see only minor differences in context.

Context:
Soc said hoopla was scummy because her plan for pushing the top of the draft order was pro-scum (the town power roles would get lynched). He theorized that if hoop was scum, the mafia had done badly in the draft.

RedCoyote said this was contradictory because it's like he is using hoopla's logic (about scum being in a certain part of the draft). He isn't though, she's going by number analysis and he's saying her scummy pushing of it indicates that the mafia did badly if she herself is scum.

Coug agrees, but

misses the point

. He focuses on the "hoopla and/or fate flips scum" part. The other reason for his vote is that he's remembering getting lynched as scum in the last game--or something, the last part of the post doesn't make much sense to me. It sounds more like he's thinking about not making the slip he made last game.

*******

If I ignore Hoopla, then my two strong scum reads become Socrates and Pomegranate. Socrates I have the better support for, but what I have on Pomegranate is basically hearsay, which is not grounds for me to want to jump on a wagon.

Fate asked if ignoring Hoopla would make it easier to scumhunt. I replied that not taking Hoopla into account would make Socrates and Pomegranate scum in my mind. While I think Pomegranate has the bigger wagon, I can more easily post a case on Socrates. I don't want to just take everybody's word for it and vote Pomegranate—I'd rather look into her first. (I'm doing that right now, by the way.)

Soc and pom are his scum reads, and in fact "not taking Hoopla into account" would make them both scum. He needs to look into pom though.

His case that he comes up with is in ISO 18. He has three points against soc:

1) The same misinterpreted bit from above (still after the reread). Soc's statement "doesn't make sense", "hence my vote on him".
2) One of socs posts is "somewhat an appeal to emotion"
3) Soc, like several other people, thought that pom's contradiction was scummy. Coug thinks it's a null tell. Apparently finds soc particularly scummy for this even though pom is his other suspect.

Vote: Socrates. I don't care if I just recast the vote I pulled off; I'd rather do that than make the mistake I made in PYP I and claim not to see a case on someone I'm voting.

Scumslip, he was scum in PYP I, once again is thinking about not making the same mistake.

It looks like my vote on Socrates is doing a whole lot of nothing, and I understand bouncy.bouncy's case (that I posted at #429) better than The1fifi. Socrates will have to wait until later.

Vote: Socrates

Do I need to repeat it?

...I still can't get Socrates support, eh?

Well, I'll have to go with number two, which has support already.

Well, that'll teach him to think before sending stuff in...

Vote: Socrates for reasons that we should know by now.

2 themes here:

1) Socrates is obv scum
2) Sigh, I can't get people to vote for him, I won't even try to repost my weak case and push other people though.

Now, contrast this with the posts since Soc's cop claim:

While the theory Socrates just posted makes some sense, I would have faked a different PR, probably doctor. Maybe empowerer if I figured there was a Mafia RB running around.

So yeah. I don't know how to take it, but there were better ways of gambiting than that.

He "doesn't know how to take it"??? His top scumread throughout the game fakeclaimed a guilty cop result.

Heh. So I did.

Screw it anyway. I'm hurting myself by leaving myself open on Socrates, and the "backfired gambit" reads more scum than town.

Unvote if necessary
Vote: Socrates

Fakey and awkward.

[Jack]

Also:

The nightkills really seem like scum know where bomb is. Kills in the top 6 with the vig? Scum probably have the bomb.

Why would town claim yesterday, before nighttime, that the bomb was above him? It doesn't make sense--it basically let's the mafia not worry at all about the bomb.

I was thinking governor was confirmed town--but lynching soc guarantees victory for scum if they have the governor. If soc is saved, there's a weird chance of the town switching it up and lynching the actually vig the next day. And no, elli shoul certainly not use his power today.

[Jack]

Also if Jack is telling the truth, we'll get a "Town vig shot" if we lynch him. Jack, how do you feel about taking the lynch and vigging fifi?

If fifi isn't the scumvig, we lose in this scenario. If coug flips bomb like I think he will, then it means that you are the scumvig. Possibly he will flip vig.

Jack if you had a town read on me, you realize we could have both not claimed, and scared the scum each night with a 50% chance of hitting the bomb?

This sounds like you think I'm town, but you just implied that I was the scumvig.

The scum would have just ignored us.

[Jack]

I don't get where Fate is getting the "coug must be town". Is it solely based on "he took a hell of a risk claiming it"? He didn't take a big risk.

Fate is saying that me or fifi is the scumvig, and that he (fate) is town. If that's the case, then coug going for bomb makes sense as scum, it's not a huge risk. If he gets counterclaimed they know where the bomb is and one of the non-vig scum (coug could be non-vig) gets lynched. If fate thinks I'm lying about being vengeful, then coug could be the vengeful and the scum could win with his lynch.

Ok, that's as clear as I can make that paragraph. Essentially, there is no reason for Fate as town to assume that coug is innocent. All of the other assumptions he's making (devotress could be vengeful, etc) make sense with coug being scum. Ergo, he is probably coug's scumbuddy.

[Jack]

Announcing a wish not to repeat the same mistake last time is a null tell. Supposed you were lynched as scum for heavy tunneling on a player. Would you want to tunnel heavily again? I don't think so. Would you view people who tunneled heavily on a player as scummy afterward? I can't think of a logical reason why not. Your attack here basically calls me scummy for acting on past experiences.

Actually no. I said that you were:

1) Reading carelessly, as shown by you not understanding Red's post
2) Voting on a weak case, which you later made your centerpiece
3) And I said that my feeling was that you were thinking in the mindset of scum

So the main point was that it was a weak, careless buss. You ignore that part here, and dismissively talk about null tells which have no relation to gut feel.

2 themes here:

1) Socrates is obv scum

Understandable.

So you were in fact convinced he was scum? Why?

You skipped the part of my post where I was saying how weak your soc case was (and the part about you being undecided on whether your top suspect was gambiting).

2) Sigh, I can't get people to vote for him, I won't even try to repost my weak case and push other people though.

I was concerned less about my case being weak and more about my coming off as a broken record. While I wish everybody would have agreed at that point, I don't get what I want; however, I thought all the other players already knew why I thought so.

Ok. This is a dead end. You say you didn't want to sound like a broken record, I say you didn't actually want him to get lynched.

Fakey and awkward.

Is it worse than sitting on the fence, which is what I was doing before this?

So you were acting scummy before you made the scummy post.

SC either took a hell of a risk claiming going for bomb, or he's scum with Jack.

Your wording implies that you think I'm scum either way. I don't think your statement here is scummy, but I want to probe into your thought processes for a bit: Why would it be more risky for me to claim I went for the bomb if I were scum with Jack than if I were not?

No, he's implying the opposite (which he shouldn't do as your scum partner). This is obvious from the rest of his post.

[Jack]

I was putting forward a scenario where you were town, as you claim.

If you think I'm scum and not vengeful--then coug could be vengeful. And if he's vengeful, then scum would

win

if he was lynched today, as long as he knew where the bomb was so that they didn't die killing it.

So there's no reason for you to count him out as scum.

[Jack]

You're

damning me if I do and damning me if I don't

. My post makes it clear that I concede to fence-sitting, but when I realize that the odds weren't in favor of Socrates being town, it's scummy when I finally come to my senses and act on it? What's going on?

Yes. You were fence sitting, scummy as you acknowledge (you acknowledging it doesn't make it less scummy). So you are damning yourself for half of it. The "damning you if you do" part is my read of that post being you as soc's scumbuddy joining the wagon.

And yes, there's a limited amount you can say about gut reads. I read the rest of your reply, but it reads to me like an attempt to muddy the waters more than anything, like your first bit about the null tell, and how you keep emphasizing that we're at an impasse. Scum never agree that they're scum, so it's always an impasse.

Don't you agree that scum:

1) sometimes post weak, careless cases, sometimes on their partners to distance
2) sometimes try and act like they are intent on lynching them, but don't actually try and lynch them
3) sometimes react in unnatural ways to their partners cop claims

[Jack]

fifi is looking very much like scum with SC. If scum doubled up, it makes sense that they would do it on #3, because it still gives them a reasonably high draft.

I can see the other two scum being hoopla and TM--doubling up again. Hoopla pushes the "scum at single numbers" angle all game, she then looks town if soc is lynched, and can argue her theory even more effectively. It's probably not a coincidence that the two biggest groups left are those two groups (1 and 3 X numbers).

Fate's push on SC doesn't feel like SC is the bomb and will prove fate the vig upon death. It's a moot point anyway--an SC lynch will tell us.

@Elli: All my recent games here are ongoing. I think the only full games I had as scum were Mutually assured destruction and a newbie or two.

[Jack]

[quote"Fate"]Let's vote then Jack. Like you say if I'm "bussing" my scumbomb partner it proves me as the scumvig.
[/quote]

Hitting the vig today might give us more margin for error (i.e. allow one mislynch). I'm not sure about the math. We should figure out which is more likely.

[Jack]

Let's vote then Jack. Like you say if I'm "bussing" my scumbomb partner it proves me as the scumvig.

Fixed quote, and that post was wrong anyway. 6:4 turns into 5:3 if we lynch the scumvig, so it doesn't give us more room for error. We are good to go if we get him today or tomorrow.

And just basic strategy says that you have your more experienced player take the valuable role.

Vote:StrangerCoug

[Jack]

Nice. Although TM's vote post sounds pretty scummy to me. Hoopla's almost laughably so.

[Jack]

If SC flips vig:

Lynch Hoopla and then fifi

If not:

fifi and then hoopla

Then I think tony, although I don't actually have anything to put him over Devotress with. That one could be tough.

[Jack]

Great game, I really enjoyed it. Hoopla was definitely the brains behind most of our strategy.

Funny thing to me is all that time we spent talking about who faraday should empower, and one time we weren't sure the order would get in...and the town didn't have doc, roleblocker, or bulletproof.

Mafia having a great draft and town having a terrible draft (except for Elli snagging governor two spots above hoopla) helped a lot.

Us believing Fate's breadcrumb and then knocking out the only 4 town roles that could hurt us in the first two days helped even more.

*******

One role that would be cool for the next game:

"Millers-Godfather": Makes town appear guilty upon investigation, and mafia appear innocent.

[Jack]

I think make it so that everyone can send in a backup choice, and if they miss the first one they have a 50% shot at the second.

Multi scum group games are swingy, but a draft that ended up with less vanilla towns would be less swingy I think.

Town had some bad luck this game, I don't know that I'd put it on the setup. Except for the draft being so random and having such a big effect on the game.

[Jack]

Fate was most entertaining to watch after I was dead. Hitting scum right and left and then getting totally fooled on a few occasions.

Also, this was great:

Bouncy if you're still reading, NOW do you see why you should've role coped Socrates?

-_-'

Day 2 was such a gift. The role cop had to claim and then outed the tracker, and we knocked out the only two dangerous roles left.

I wanted fifi to take role cop pre game, it would have been super useful and could have been deadly if you'd checked Soc or me. But I guess it's just as well we didn't.

And the only reason they knew where the bomb was because they believed in my WIFOM in the signup thread, not because fifi was a vanilla going for the bomb -_-'

That and the way you refused to claim basically cemented it. The only other person I considered was Coug after he claimed to have tried and failed to get it, that was just so weird.

[Jack]

Reading your quicktopic you guys even talked about who you should kill to leave groups alone to be good targets for number lynching. I can't see how you can have participated in that quicktopic and think it's a good idea for town to make heavy use of number analysis.

I didn't think the number analysis was very valuable. Especially since scum are going to work around it.

)

Needless to say PLEASE LOOK HERE BEFORE YOU POST.

I screwed it up and RC not SC got killed.

"Oh"

I just read this. I mean, obviously my first reaction is anger. Then I feel as if, 'well people are human.'

Then I just feel sad. Like we lost the game on a fluke

We thought it was going to suck, but it turned out well for us.

RC would probably not have been scummy enough to lynch. But we would have done the same thing the last day, except we probably would have gone for a fifi lynch, or devotress.

It was fortunate that SC turned out so scummy, but I don't think the mixup had a huge effect on the game.

[Jack]

I was going to pick (15,1) before we talked about it (would have been third overall). We got the best roles largely due to chance. If socrates had been one spot lower, we probably wouldn't have gotten vig.

[Jack]

That's true. Without the empowerer and fate's breadcrumb, we wouldn't have taken a shot at the top 5 like we did. Then the town could have at least used the tracker and watcher.

I think it's easy to overcorrect a setup after a swingy game. It reminds me of 101 mph mafia, where the mod corrected for an easy scum win in the 100 mph game by giving the town a cop, backup cop, doctor, and nurse (in a mini).