Pick Your Power II - Looks like the wine is gone (SCUM WIN)


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Post Post #20 (isolation #0) » Thu Feb 04, 2010 3:37 pm

Post by StrangerCoug »

Vote: Socrates
for getting to pick a role first.
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Post Post #58 (isolation #1) » Fri Feb 05, 2010 12:52 am

Post by StrangerCoug »

Jack wrote:
Faraday wrote:
Jack wrote:Why are guys asking me questions, instead of the other 21 people?
I like your avtar. It turns me on.
Now answer my question
.
No. Now what?
Unvote: Socrates
Vote: Jack
for dodging questions.
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Post Post #90 (isolation #2) » Fri Feb 05, 2010 12:12 pm

Post by StrangerCoug »

Jack wrote:
StrangerCoug wrote:
Unvote: Socrates
Vote: Jack
for dodging questions.
StrangerCoug, you should know better...
Devotress wrote:My opinion on the numbers debate: There is nothing to be gained in terms of scum hunting from the draft order, even if the scum had been able to talk before submiting numbers (which it doesn't sound like they were able to,to me) it's just a huge wifom trap.
Yes, this is somewhat my position. It could possibly be useful at some point, but it's a terrible starting place.
I also disagree that the numbers are of use in determining alignment in the long run.

Also, I predict another mountain climb. Damn large games that I can't seem to get my head into anymore...
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Post Post #131 (isolation #3) » Fri Feb 05, 2010 3:43 pm

Post by StrangerCoug »

Cobalt wrote:a scum bomb would be pretty awesome for town actually
How so?
Hoopla wrote:
Fate wrote: I would definitely not pick the same number as my teammates. That is what I would do, but I don't know what scum in
this
game has done. Maybe they did spread their choices out, maybe they did double up. But people are selfish, who is going to agree "sure I'll double up and likely not get a role." Also the fact that they only had so much time to choose their numbers, I don't know if they debated the issue enough.
It would take a mature mindset to be willing to sacrifice your chance at a role, to be hidden from number analysis. But is it even worth it for scum? As scum, you cannot afford to let town get many of the good roles by trying to get cute.

Perhaps a more visual approach to my theory would be helpful;

We have 9 sets of numbers, yes?

1) Socrates
2) Fate
3) bouncy.bouncy, Cobalt
4) RayFrost, Redcoyote
5) Jack, FeFiFoFum
6) StrangerCoug, The1fifi, wolframnhart
7) Devotress, Porkens, DocPotter
8) Ellibereth, Dramonic, Hoopla, TonyMontana
9) Farside, curiouskarmadog, Pomegranate, Faraday

Now, there is a good chance, that 5 of those 9 groups contain one scum each. An outside chance that only 4 of those groups contain scum, but one group has two. But for the sake of this exercise, lets assume it's best case scenario for town, and scum decided to spread themselves across 5 different numbers.

There is little logical reason to try for a lynch in Group 8 or Group 9. At best there is a 25% chance of a scum lynch, and a decent chance none are there at all. Groups 6 and 7 are slightly better, but again, if we go higher up the list, we have better chances of hitting in smaller groups.

The beauty of this is,
if
scum spread their choices across 5 different numbers, each group has equal chances of containing
a
scum. Basically, a better than 50/50 shot that a group has a scum in it. So by lynching Fate or Socrates, we have a ~50/50 shot of scum being in that group, but because they're the only ones in that group, it is 100% going to be them. As opposed to a 25% chance in a Group 8 or 9 lynch.

Even if scum have doubled up once, the same principal applies (higher up the list, the scummier), but with slightly weaker odds. But really, from reactions of the questions I've asked others about what they'd do as scum, I think it is more than likely than scum are in fact in 5 different groups (which is such a good position for town to be in)!
Why is the back of my head screaming "gambler's fallacy"?
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Post Post #141 (isolation #4) » Sat Feb 06, 2010 4:14 am

Post by StrangerCoug »

RedCoyote wrote:
Socrates 127 wrote:You are trying to lay down the seeds of paranoia that just because
people did well in the draft that they are likely scum.

Your logic is so absurdly pro-scum


[...]

NOTE TO THE TOWN:
If Hoopla and/or Fate flip scum
, then the scum team did really bad in the draft (whether intentionally or not) and
we will find a majority of the scum in the back half of the draft order
.
(emphasis added)


Does anyone else see this as contradictory?
Yes I do, since Socrates has the top slot and Fate is right behind him.

Unvote: Jack
Vote: Socrates


Partly that, partly because of my memory of getting quicklynched as SK on Day 1 last time for stating I didn't see a case on a player I was voting as I see only minor differences in context.
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Post Post #146 (isolation #5) » Sat Feb 06, 2010 5:38 am

Post by StrangerCoug »

curiouskarmadog wrote:question for all, who here played the first game?
I played it. Miserably.
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Post Post #158 (isolation #6) » Sat Feb 06, 2010 8:51 am

Post by StrangerCoug »

Socrates wrote:
StrangerCoug wrote:
RedCoyote wrote:
Socrates 127 wrote:You are trying to lay down the seeds of paranoia that just because
people did well in the draft that they are likely scum.

Your logic is so absurdly pro-scum


[...]

NOTE TO THE TOWN:
If Hoopla and/or Fate flip scum
, then the scum team did really bad in the draft (whether intentionally or not) and
we will find a majority of the scum in the back half of the draft order
.
(emphasis added)


Does anyone else see this as contradictory?
Yes I do, since Socrates has the top slot and Fate is right behind him.

Unvote: Jack
Vote: Socrates


Partly that, partly because of my memory of getting quicklynched as SK on Day 1 last time for stating I didn't see a case on a player I was voting as I see only minor differences in context.
I'm sorry, but what?

I don't get what either of your points have to do with anything.
There are 22 players in this game. You are first in the draft, Fate is second, and Hoopla is 17th. Fate being scum is not indicative of the scum in general doing poorly in the draft according to your logic, as 2
<
22/2.
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Post Post #204 (isolation #7) » Sun Feb 07, 2010 4:00 am

Post by StrangerCoug »

The number and role speculations are distracting me from actual scumhunting, which is really what I want to do. Everybody wanted the top slot, motives for picking roles might have been for keeping the other side for getting it, blah, blah, blah (though I'll probably argue for roles other than VT we should lynch if claimed). Make me stop and think, not stop and give up.
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Post Post #207 (isolation #8) » Sun Feb 07, 2010 4:30 am

Post by StrangerCoug »

Faraday wrote:um, why?
Which one of us is that addressed to? Your post is only 36 seconds after dramonic's, so you might be talking to me instead of him.
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Post Post #264 (isolation #9) » Mon Feb 08, 2010 1:58 pm

Post by StrangerCoug »

Porkens wrote:Looks like the fate wagon has run it's course.

FOS EVERYONE WHOS JUMPING OFF OMG (I haven't actually looked ath the names of who was on / is jumping off but if there are then there ya go)
Why the FoS on the people jumping off? I understand that he refused to claim, which is basically signing away your death, but I honestly don't think the wagon was that good. I like Socrates as scum.
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Post Post #305 (isolation #10) » Tue Feb 09, 2010 1:48 pm

Post by StrangerCoug »

Plum wrote:I said that a claim from fate was good because (I thought, at least, that) he was at L-1. I am of the opinion thatsomeone should claim at L-1 (barring special circumstances).
Pomegranate wrote:That was me. (It
looked
like I was logged on... :x )
I would suggest that both you and your sister uncheck the option to remember your passwords. (You don't happen to know each other's, do you?) and that the two of you use different skins.
Cobalt wrote:lol, you are scummish
unvote vote fifi
FoS: Cobalt

Start putting reasons other than just vague stuff for your votes.
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Post Post #329 (isolation #11) » Wed Feb 10, 2010 1:17 pm

Post by StrangerCoug »

Mod: Ill.
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Post Post #361 (isolation #12) » Thu Feb 11, 2010 7:32 am

Post by StrangerCoug »

Hoopla wrote:
farside22 wrote: Hoopla I love you when I say this and I'm not saying your numbers analysis is shit at all but I think we should use a combo of scumhunting and number analysis to find scum. I would like you to actually read the game and point to those you think are scum and why that have nothing to do with the numbers right now.
I love you too. But you don't understand, my brain automatically callibrates things into percentages and numbers when I take any information in, you know? Like, even regular information from scumhunting filters through a part of my brain that turns it into psuedo-percentages (even if they aren't always quantified). Something can be a weak or a strong tell, we may have multiple tells we're working with, and some data/tells we use are more reliable than others. Whatever it is, we naturally add up in our subconcious all the information (of varying importance) and rank it against everyone else. This is a very mathematical process, even if we don't understand (or realize) that we're giving every player in the game 'odds' of being scum.

So, because I put so much stock in the value of this number analysis, it's clouding my ability to see past it, and set it aside. For example, Pom is probably scummier than the percentages purely from number analysis gives me - but then I remember she is one of 4 people who picked the number 6. It's highly likely that there is 0 or 1 scum in this group, so even if she is scummy, it does not make it a good chance lynch for me. I'm sorry, it's just stupid.
I consider myself a numbers person too, but I'm still having doubts about their usefulness at this point. I believe that the mod confirmed that the scum could talk before picking them, but it gets into WIFOM from there. Enough deaths should give us enough information about them.
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Post Post #380 (isolation #13) » Thu Feb 11, 2010 3:39 pm

Post by StrangerCoug »

I'm not liking that RayFrost and Pomegranate were engaged in non-game related discussion either.
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Post Post #390 (isolation #14) » Fri Feb 12, 2010 1:01 am

Post by StrangerCoug »

Mod: Well again.
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Post Post #401 (isolation #15) » Fri Feb 12, 2010 2:25 pm

Post by StrangerCoug »

Ellibereth, once you have something for me to defend against, I'd like to hear it. (If my activity is bothersome, I find it bothersome to myself too. However, the game's still a bit over my head.)
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Post Post #405 (isolation #16) » Fri Feb 12, 2010 2:30 pm

Post by StrangerCoug »

If I ignore Hoopla, then my two strong scum reads become Socrates and Pomegranate. Socrates I have the better support for, but what I have on Pomegranate is basically hearsay, which is not grounds for me to want to jump on a wagon.

Unvote
in case I need to.
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Post Post #410 (isolation #17) » Fri Feb 12, 2010 2:45 pm

Post by StrangerCoug »

Ellibereth wrote:
StrangerCoug wrote:If I ignore Hoopla, then my two strong scum reads become Socrates and Pomegranate. Socrates I have the better support for, but what I have on Pomegranate is basically hearsay, which is not grounds for me to want to jump on a wagon.

Unvote
in case I need to.
I dunt get this post. :?
Fate asked if ignoring Hoopla would make it easier to scumhunt. I replied that not taking Hoopla into account would make Socrates and Pomegranate scum in my mind. While I think Pomegranate has the bigger wagon, I can more easily post a case on Socrates. I don't want to just take everybody's word for it and vote Pomegranate—I'd rather look into her first. (I'm doing that right now, by the way.)
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Post Post #414 (isolation #18) » Fri Feb 12, 2010 2:57 pm

Post by StrangerCoug »

Socrates wrote:NOTE TO THE TOWN: If Hoopla and/or Fate flip scum, then the scum team did really bad in the draft (whether intentionally or not) and we will find a majority of the scum in the back half of the draft order.
This doesn't make a lot of sense with Hoopla being scum and Fate being town, hence my vote on him.
Socrates wrote:My god, why bother defending myself if nobody bothers to listen.
Somewhat of an appeal to emotion. This also comes off as giving himself an out for not explaining his actions. (Yes, I'm a mean cat. That's irrelevant.)
Socrates wrote:
Plum wrote:I said that a claim from fate was good because (I thought, at least, that) he was at L-1. I am of the opinion thatsomeone should claim at L-1 (barring special circumstances).
Wow.

You are so obviously scum I am worried that something tricky is going on.
I may have disagreed with the Fate wagon, but wanting someone at L-1 to claim is a null tell.
RayFrost wrote:Except I'm cooler.

And a guy.

And an only child.

And town.
Pomegranate wrote:I disagree.

I'm not fighting with that, but it doesn't change the fact that girls rock.

Plum is awesome. It's impossible to diss her anyway, don't try.

High five, same here!
RayFrost wrote:*points to name* I invoke the coolness of my name to say that I'm way cooler than you.

Eh, girls are cool. I wasn't trying to dis females.

Wasn't trying to.

Awesome, the mod should totally make us masons.
What is the point of this back and forth?

That's really all I found on Pomegranate, and by that token I should view RayFrost as suspicious also. Looking back at the game does wonders.

Vote: Socrates.
I don't care if I just recast the vote I pulled off; I'd rather do that than make the mistake I made in PYP I and claim not to see a case on someone I'm voting.
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Post Post #426 (isolation #19) » Sat Feb 13, 2010 3:58 am

Post by StrangerCoug »

I'm sorry, why are The1fifi and bouncy.bouncy scum? If they are lurkers, are there really no better targets? I'd rather lynch people on information rather than on the lack thereof.
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Post Post #429 (isolation #20) » Sat Feb 13, 2010 4:13 am

Post by StrangerCoug »

RedCoyote wrote:Stranger, do a quick read though of bouncy in isolation if you have the time.
I'm getting somebody who hasn't posted a lot, posted a vague reason for posting Fate, and is WIFOM'ing. Is this what I'm looking for?
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Post Post #430 (isolation #21) » Sat Feb 13, 2010 4:14 am

Post by StrangerCoug »

Faraday wrote:
StrangerCoug wrote:I'm sorry, why are The1fifi and bouncy.bouncy scum? If they are lurkers, are there really no better targets? I'd rather lynch people on information rather than on the lack thereof.
Lurking is scummy. They must be purged.
I don't do LALurkers if I don't have to.
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Post Post #485 (isolation #22) » Sun Feb 14, 2010 4:28 am

Post by StrangerCoug »

It looks like my vote on Socrates is doing a whole lot of nothing, and I understand bouncy.bouncy's case (that I posted at #429) better than The1fifi. Socrates will have to wait until later.

Unvote: Socrates
Vote: bouncy.bouncy
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Post Post #536 (isolation #23) » Mon Feb 15, 2010 12:23 pm

Post by StrangerCoug »

Vote: Socrates


Do I need to repeat it?
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Post Post #539 (isolation #24) » Mon Feb 15, 2010 12:47 pm

Post by StrangerCoug »

Fate wrote:
StrangerCoug wrote:
Vote: Socrates


Do I need to repeat it?
No you need to add to it. I know one other, Jack I think, said "O RLY? You have a case on Socrates?" along with me when you first brought it up.

It's still weak.

FOS: StrangerCoug
Jack made no reference to my Socrates case that I can find in the timeframe I think you're talking about. The only person other than you that mentioned anything about the Jack post between my saying "let me get it" and "here it is" is DocPotter, who, although clearly interested in it, did not imply that I was going to post a bad case. You interpreted "the case I can more easily support" as "the easy case"; understandable, but in my opinion two different things.
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Post Post #611 (isolation #25) » Tue Feb 16, 2010 1:47 pm

Post by StrangerCoug »

LOL at curiouskarmadog and RayFrost, who aren't awake (though in CKD's case it's probably unsportsmanlike of me as this is my first deep south game).

...I still can't get Socrates support, eh?

Well, I'll have to go with number two, which has support already.

Unvote: Socrates
Vote: bouncy.bouncy


Very minimal posting and making excuses about D1. Something about the vote on The1fifi rings false, also.
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Post Post #617 (isolation #26) » Tue Feb 16, 2010 3:31 pm

Post by StrangerCoug »

I was referencing #562 in that post, which Fate brought up already. Now that I'm not skimming, even if you weren't supporting the lynch of somebody already dead, I don't see how lynching the potentially useful player over the clearly useless player is necessarily beneficial.
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Post Post #618 (isolation #27) » Tue Feb 16, 2010 3:32 pm

Post by StrangerCoug »

EBWOP: That was to RayFrost, now that I look like an idiot.
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Post Post #718 (isolation #28) » Wed Feb 17, 2010 2:33 pm

Post by StrangerCoug »

Fate wrote:PROGRESS YAY! BOUNCIES READY TO DIE!

RANDOM.ORG FOR NIGHT ACTIONS? HOLY HELL.

KILL THIS WITH FIRE!
Quoted for truth. Have a reason to target people.
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Post Post #847 (isolation #29) » Thu Feb 18, 2010 11:48 am

Post by StrangerCoug »

Fate wrote:
I'm Hammering soon, get your freakin actions in


Players that haven't checked in, iirc: CKD, Wolf, SC. Please post acknowledging you have read that bouncy is going to die.


Oh and Wolf answer the questions @ you, lest you face town wrath.
I'm ready for bouncy.bouncy to die.
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Post Post #849 (isolation #30) » Thu Feb 18, 2010 11:53 am

Post by StrangerCoug »

Well, that'll teach him to think before sending stuff in...

Vote: Socrates
for reasons that we should know by now.
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Post Post #954 (isolation #31) » Fri Feb 19, 2010 1:21 pm

Post by StrangerCoug »

The1fifi wrote:@Everyone : i'd like to hear your toughts on tony montana. Consider this as really important please.
TM needs to post more.
Fate wrote:
Devotress wrote:
Jack wrote:
Devotress wrote:Scum could have an empowerer.
This is your comment on the day??

fos:devotress
Still trying to decide what I think of the going after top power slots now re the scum vig, which is what this day is about.
Only scum think.

FOS: Devotress
This is a weak FoS reason.
FoS: Fate.

Socrates wrote:
ALL EYES ON SOCRATES


I am the cop, not the vig. Why use a gun when a badge will do?

Pomegranate is scum, BY INVESTIGATION.

(I investigated Hoopla night 1: Town)

vote:Pomegranate
Unvote: Socrates


Hanging on to voting Pomegranate until I see a vote count and, if beneficial, a claim.
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Post Post #957 (isolation #32) » Fri Feb 19, 2010 1:39 pm

Post by StrangerCoug »

Fate wrote:
StrangerCoug wrote: This is a weak FoS reason.
FoS: Fate.
This is a weaker FoS reason.
FoS: SC.
What are we doing, fighting for last place? Town is supposed to think too.
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Post Post #1005 (isolation #33) » Sat Feb 20, 2010 11:59 am

Post by StrangerCoug »

While the theory Socrates just posted makes some sense, I would have faked a different PR, probably doctor. Maybe empowerer if I figured there was a Mafia RB running around.

So yeah. I don't know how to take it, but there were better ways of gambiting than that.
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Post Post #1020 (isolation #34) » Sat Feb 20, 2010 12:27 pm

Post by StrangerCoug »

Jack wrote:
StrangerCoug wrote:While the theory Socrates just posted makes some sense, I would have faked a different PR, probably doctor. Maybe empowerer if I figured there was a Mafia RB running around.

So yeah. I don't know how to take it, but there were better ways of gambiting than that.
No, it really doesn't make sense, and he's obviously joking around.

fos:StrangerCoug


This sounds like a scumbuddy trying to pretend he isn't sure soc is scum.
Do you really want the scum to know that you're a town bomb?
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Post Post #1024 (isolation #35) » Sat Feb 20, 2010 12:33 pm

Post by StrangerCoug »

Faraday wrote:
StrangerCoug wrote:
Do you really want the scum to know that you're a town bomb?
Wut.
Is this such an obscure role that I have to put it in big red letters? If the scum knows you're a bomb, they'll likely get around it by not NK'ing you. It is also very possible that they'll try to get you mislynched so they can take out two townies in one day. Socrates fakeclaiming to try to draw the NK makes sense except for the role faked.
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Post Post #1026 (isolation #36) » Sat Feb 20, 2010 12:38 pm

Post by StrangerCoug »

I am not saying that Socrates's gambit is completely flawed. Yes, there's a specific flaw that makes me hesitant to believe it, but other than that, the attempt to draw the NK fits with Socrates being a town bomb.
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Post Post #1043 (isolation #37) » Sat Feb 20, 2010 4:41 pm

Post by StrangerCoug »

The1fifi wrote:
Fos
StrangerCoug for seeming to "believe" in socrates and Doc for voting Fate(????).
Clarify this, preferably by linking me to what you're talking about.

Townie here.
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Post Post #1054 (isolation #38) » Sun Feb 21, 2010 4:24 am

Post by StrangerCoug »

The1fifi wrote:@SC

StrangerCoug wrote:
Faraday wrote:
StrangerCoug wrote:
Do you really want the scum to know that you're a town bomb?
Wut.
Is this such an obscure role that I have to put it in big red letters? If the scum knows you're a bomb, they'll likely get around it by not NK'ing you. It is also very possible that they'll try to get you mislynched so they can take out two townies in one day.
Socrates fakeclaiming to try to draw the NK makes sense except for the role faked.
I addressed the bold already. I would have understood if Socrates claimed doctor and picked people who survived each night as claimed targets to try to get NK'd, but the cop fakeclaim gambit backfired when a mislynch happened because of it.
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Post Post #1058 (isolation #39) » Sun Feb 21, 2010 5:58 am

Post by StrangerCoug »

I should mention that the bomb is somebody above me, Hoopla, so one of Socrates, Fate, and Jack has to be it. (In my opinion, it is least likely Jack.)
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Post Post #1073 (isolation #40) » Sun Feb 21, 2010 11:22 am

Post by StrangerCoug »

Fate wrote:
StrangerCoug wrote:I should mention that the bomb is somebody above me, Hoopla, so one of Socrates, Fate, and Jack has to be it. (In my opinion, it is least likely Jack.)
Directed at Hoopla, hmm? I smell scum trying to buy Socrates more time (bomb is above me, since Socrates claimed it, it has to be him!) What makes you sure Jack is the least likely?
Socrates flat-out claimed bomb and your Day 1 actions (specifically, your refusal to claim after a weak wagon on you) indicate that you could be. Nothing I can recall Jack doing is suggestive of him being a bomb.
Hoopla wrote:And at the moment, I think it's one of the three players in the only untouched group - StrangerCoug, Fifi, wolf.
That's impossible if both The1fifi and I are telling the truth. We both implied that we tried for a role and got beaten to it. I tried for bomb and didn't get it, leaving me as VT, and likewise for The1fifi trying to get the vig role; wolframnhart is below The1fifi.
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Post Post #1077 (isolation #41) » Sun Feb 21, 2010 11:45 am

Post by StrangerCoug »

Actually, in Mini 895, it was discussed a bit that you can tell the truth and still be scum. Here, scum can just keep their claims to "vanilla" and not worry too much about lying there. I'm just reminding you that if one of the three people you say is most likely vig is indeed such, one of The1fifi and I have to be scum.

Show me where I assume The1fifi to be town that went for vig and I'll answer your question.
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Post Post #1080 (isolation #42) » Sun Feb 21, 2010 12:02 pm

Post by StrangerCoug »

Hoopla wrote:
Two questions for everyone to answer when they have time;


Is it a worthwhile risk taking a shot at anyone else other than Socrates?
I'm having a hard time figuring out why it would hurt in the long run unless Socrates is town, something I'm still unsettled on.
Hoopla wrote:Who are your top vigilante suspects?
Fate and The1fifi, depending on if the latter's claim is correct.
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Post Post #1087 (isolation #43) » Sun Feb 21, 2010 12:26 pm

Post by StrangerCoug »

Fate wrote:2. Implies that both he and fifi are telling the truth about their claims
As I told Hoopla, point to where I'm doing this, please.
Fate wrote:3. His suspects for the vig? Fifi, who he believed before, and myself, who, according to him, is more likely bomb.
As for my believing The1Fifi is vig, see my response for #2. As for my believing you being vig, I remember saying how you and Socrates is more likely bomb than Jack. I don't recall picking one of you over the other.
Fate wrote:Why not Jack? If Jack is neither bomb, nor Vig, then what?
I haven't settled on Jack yet.
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Post Post #1089 (isolation #44) » Sun Feb 21, 2010 12:45 pm

Post by StrangerCoug »

Conceded. Now respond to the rest of my defense.
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Post Post #1092 (isolation #45) » Sun Feb 21, 2010 1:02 pm

Post by StrangerCoug »

Fate wrote:So if you suspect fifi for being the vig, (which=scum, from now on for the rest of the game), why don't you include thoughts on Wolf? And fifi trying to deflect from him?
I simply haven't focused on wolframnhart very much.
Fate wrote:#3 I recall you picking one over the other. You were hedging on believing Socrates, he claimed bomb after all right? You were one of the first to believe his "town gambit theory." I see no townie believing Socrates is town at this point in time. But if you do, then surely he must be bomb right?

You go: "Hmm Socrates explanation is gambit."
Sensible townie goes:"WHAT THE **** SOCRATES! YOU COST US A DEAD TOWNIE!"
Heh. So I did.

Screw it anyway. I'm hurting myself by leaving myself open on Socrates, and the "backfired gambit" reads more scum than town.

Unvote
if necessary
Vote: Socrates
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Post Post #1163 (isolation #46) » Mon Feb 22, 2010 1:05 pm

Post by StrangerCoug »

Jack wrote:Initial vote for soc (after the rvs vote which was unvoted):
SC wrote:Yes I do, since Socrates has the top slot and Fate is right behind him.

Unvote: Jack
Vote: Socrates

Partly that, partly because of my memory of getting quicklynched as SK on Day 1 last time for stating I didn't see a case on a player I was voting as I see only minor differences in context.
Context:
Soc said hoopla was scummy because her plan for pushing the top of the draft order was pro-scum (the town power roles would get lynched). He theorized that if hoop was scum, the mafia had done badly in the draft.

RedCoyote said this was contradictory because it's like he is using hoopla's logic (about scum being in a certain part of the draft). He isn't though, she's going by number analysis and he's saying her scummy pushing of it indicates that the mafia did badly if she herself is scum.

Coug agrees, but
misses the point
. He focuses on the "hoopla and/or fate flips scum" part. The other reason for his vote is that he's remembering getting lynched as scum in the last game--or something, the last part of the post doesn't make much sense to me. It sounds more like he's thinking about not making the slip he made last game.
Announcing a wish not to repeat the same mistake last time is a null tell. Supposed you were lynched as scum for heavy tunneling on a player. Would you want to tunnel heavily again? I don't think so. Would you view people who tunneled heavily on a player as scummy afterward? I can't think of a logical reason why not. Your attack here basically calls me scummy for acting on past experiences.
Jack wrote:
StrangerCoug wrote:Vote: Socrates. I don't care if I just recast the vote I pulled off; I'd rather do that than make the mistake I made in PYP I and claim not to see a case on someone I'm voting.
Scumslip, he was scum in PYP I, once again is thinking about not making the same mistake.
Again, null.
Jack wrote:
StrangerCoug wrote:It looks like my vote on Socrates is doing a whole lot of nothing, and I understand bouncy.bouncy's case (that I posted at #429) better than The1fifi. Socrates will have to wait until later.
StrangerCoug wrote:Vote: Socrates

Do I need to repeat it?
StrangerCoug wrote:...I still can't get Socrates support, eh?

Well, I'll have to go with number two, which has support already.
StrangerCoug wrote:Well, that'll teach him to think before sending stuff in...

Vote: Socrates for reasons that we should know by now.
2 themes here:

1) Socrates is obv scum
Understandable.
Jack wrote:2) Sigh, I can't get people to vote for him, I won't even try to repost my weak case and push other people though.
I was concerned less about my case being weak and more about my coming off as a broken record. While I wish everybody would have agreed at that point, I don't get what I want; however, I thought all the other players already knew why I thought so.
Jack wrote:
StrangerCoug wrote:Heh. So I did.

Screw it anyway. I'm hurting myself by leaving myself open on Socrates, and the "backfired gambit" reads more scum than town.

Unvote if necessary
Vote: Socrates
Fakey and awkward.
Is it worse than sitting on the fence, which is what I was doing before this?
Fate wrote:SC either took a hell of a risk claiming going for bomb, or he's scum with Jack.
Your wording implies that you think I'm scum either way. I don't think your statement here is scummy, but I want to probe into your thought processes for a bit: Why would it be more risky for me to claim I went for the bomb if I were scum with Jack than if I were not?
The1fifi wrote:
Hoopla wrote:
Fifi to me seems like the obvious choice for vig - his claim was a great way to basically shove suspicion up the ladder. I'm still working out the possibilities of teams Fifi could be on, but in my opinion, the vig is between one of the two vanilla claims (Fifi and StrangerCoug).
And you are obviously SC scum partner! I already said i am vanilla! Stop tryin to lead to a mislynch. I'd vote you, if i weren't so focused on finding the vig. It is Fate. He is trying so hard to put the suspicion on SC/Jack/Me. How come 2nd pick hasn't been killed?? Cause he is scum. Wether he was bomb or not, scum would risking sending the kill with a vanilla just to take down such a high risk draft position.
This does not come off to me as genuine. It is OMGUS and WIFOM mixed together, and I'm having a hard time seeing any sort of case on Fate. (Pop quiz for everyone else: Who do I think is vig?)

Vote: The1fifi
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Post Post #1166 (isolation #47) » Mon Feb 22, 2010 1:25 pm

Post by StrangerCoug »

The1fifi wrote:Now i think its you -.-

unvote

vote SC
*whistles pretending not to pay attention, but instead making a mental note that The1fifi is scum*
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Post Post #1170 (isolation #48) » Mon Feb 22, 2010 1:54 pm

Post by StrangerCoug »

Jack wrote:
StrangerCoug wrote: Announcing a wish not to repeat the same mistake last time is a null tell. Supposed you were lynched as scum for heavy tunneling on a player. Would you want to tunnel heavily again? I don't think so. Would you view people who tunneled heavily on a player as scummy afterward? I can't think of a logical reason why not. Your attack here basically calls me scummy for acting on past experiences.
Actually no. I said that you were:

1) Reading carelessly, as shown by you not understanding Red's post
2) Voting on a weak case, which you later made your centerpiece
3) And I said that my feeling was that you were thinking in the mindset of scum

So the main point was that it was a weak, careless buss. You ignore that part here, and dismissively talk about null tells which have no relation to gut feel.
So you think my problem is that I strawmanned him, is that correct?

As for the other part, I think we've just reached another impasse. I say you're accusing me of slipping by worrying about what got me lynched in PYP I, you say that I'm thinking more about what happened to me in PYP I than on the actual case. What is the difference in standpoint that I should know?
Jack wrote:
StrangerCoug wrote:
Jack wrote:2 themes here:

1) Socrates is obv scum
Understandable.
So you were in fact convinced he was scum? Why?
Socrates explanation of the numbers made no sense. I thought that was my main pursuit of him pre-claim.
Jack wrote:
StrangerCoug wrote:
Jack wrote: Fakey and awkward.
Is it worse than sitting on the fence, which is what I was doing before this?
So you were acting scummy before you made the scummy post.
You're damning me if I do and damning me if I don't. My post makes it clear that I concede to fence-sitting, but when I realize that the odds weren't in favor of Socrates being town, it's scummy when I finally come to my senses and act on it? What's going on?
Jack wrote:
StrangerCoug wrote:
Fate wrote:SC either took a hell of a risk claiming going for bomb, or he's scum with Jack.
Your wording implies that you think I'm scum either way. I don't think your statement here is scummy, but I want to probe into your thought processes for a bit: Why would it be more risky for me to claim I went for the bomb if I were scum with Jack than if I were not?
No, he's implying the opposite (which he shouldn't do as your scum partner). This is obvious from the rest of his post.
I don't want to know what you think right now, I want to know what he thinks.
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Post Post #1177 (isolation #49) » Mon Feb 22, 2010 2:52 pm

Post by StrangerCoug »

Fate wrote:
Fate wrote:SC either took a hell of a risk claiming going for bomb, or he's scum with Jack.
Your wording implies that you think I'm scum either way. I don't think your statement here is scummy, but I want to probe into your thought processes for a bit: Why would it be more risky for me to claim I went for the bomb if I were scum with Jack than if I were not?
You got it backwards
Then set me straight.
Fate wrote:
This does not come off to me as genuine. It is OMGUS and WIFOM mixed together, and I'm having a hard time seeing any sort of case on Fate. (Pop quiz for everyone else: Who do I think is vig?)

Vote: The1fifi
I don't like this post. SC, you fail to mention the fact that EITHER JACK OR MYSELF ARE THE BOMB. You, "fail" to see the case on me? From your POV, the only case you could have on me is:

I'm scumvig with Jackbomb and he claimed something else so I could claim bomb. But you mention none of this in your thought process, even though it should be very important to you.

This almost seems like a scumslip, SC. Did you forget you had claimed bomb?
Why I did not mention the bomb is very simple: I am not hunting for the bomb. Yes, I should know—and I do—that it's either you or Jack. I also remember people presenting evidence that the bomb is scum. Why is my failure to mention the bomb suspicious?
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Post Post #1260 (isolation #50) » Tue Feb 23, 2010 12:59 pm

Post by StrangerCoug »

Jack wrote:Don't you agree that scum:

1) sometimes post weak, careless cases, sometimes on their partners to distance
2) sometimes try and act like they are intent on lynching them, but don't actually try and lynch them
3) sometimes react in unnatural ways to their partners cop claims
I'm not saying that I do all three as scum, but I can picture all three doing so.
Fate wrote:
StrangerCoug wrote:Why I did not mention the bomb is very simple: I am not hunting for the bomb. Yes, I should know—and I do—that it's either you or Jack. I also remember people presenting evidence that the bomb is scum. Why is my failure to mention the bomb suspicious?
Look. If I am the scumvig, and you are the town vanilla, I would in no way in hell claim Scum bomb. I could claim Vanilla going for Cop, and the guess what? YOU'D be the liar since Jack didn't claim bomb either.

Me claiming Bomb should be a significant point for you. I don't remember your evidence that the bomb is scum, but I do remember you thinking Socrates was the town bomb as he claimed.
You do not remember my evidence for the scum having the bomb because I did not present it. I remember somebody saying that, since a number of NK's happened toward the top of the draft, they're probably not worried about the bomb. However, I'm having a hard time seeing you as scummy. I may have to drop the possibility that you're scum bomb, but you
ARE
more likely to be the bomb than Jack.
Jack wrote:You're line of thinking continues to baffle me. "I should know-and I do-" Well what conclusions do you draw from this? How does you knowing where the bomb is point you to thinking fifi is the vig?
My knowledge of where the bomb is has very little relevance to my thought that The1fifi is the vig, especially since he's below me. He got up and called you vig based on very little, and I think that's an overstatement on my part.
Jack wrote:Why did you not think Jack was the bomb earlier and that it was either myself or Socrates?
Jack didn't ring to me as any role in particular, and I do not usually find myself in a position to hunt for power roles. Those do not leave me a reason to question that Jack is vengeful as claimed. I hope that gun of his is pointed at scum, but everybody that's town does, and that's all I have to say about him.
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Post Post #1264 (isolation #51) » Tue Feb 23, 2010 1:34 pm

Post by StrangerCoug »

Fate wrote:Hey look who showed up. Why didn't you self-hammer? Oh yeah, because you're the vig.
No, because I have only three votes and I don't self-hammer as town. I'm also a busy person, unlike some people I know.
Fate wrote:Why did you claim vanilla going for bomb? Jack pointed this out yesterday: That let scum know exactly where it was (Jack or myself) and let them shoot freely. What town motivation could you have had?
I thought yesterday was massclaim day, and as I said, the kills point to the scum knowing where it was anyway.
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Post Post #1349 (isolation #52) » Thu Feb 25, 2010 12:53 am

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I am disappointed. Seriously.

I'll talk when I get over losing. I have other, more optimistic stuff to take care of.
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Post Post #1355 (isolation #53) » Thu Feb 25, 2010 1:47 pm

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Yeah. Fate summed it up, basically. He himself admits to stuff that cost us. But Fate, I'm not claiming I didn't know what I did (that'd be a lie), but I feel that more helpful advice to give me post-game would be to be more careful what I'm doing. I generally play as I go and generally go back only when I feel it necessary.
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Post Post #1392 (isolation #54) » Sun Feb 28, 2010 3:19 am

Post by StrangerCoug »

Hoopla wrote:
SpyreX wrote:PYP 1 was multiple, thank you very much. :P

I'm still toying with ideas for it, overall.
Yeah, I know!

That's why I didn't play it. :wink:
I like multiball, though.
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Post Post #1409 (isolation #55) » Sun Feb 28, 2010 9:56 am

Post by StrangerCoug »

I agree that 8:2:2 is imbalanced against the town, but you have scum making up a third of that game, something I avoid shooting for anymore. I like multiball, as I said, but Fate's example is not a good representation of them as it's too small a game for it to be any good. I'd play 18:3:3:1 or whatever it was again.
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