Mini 886 - Popcorn Mafia - Game over!

[Yosarian2]

Hello everyone.

I agree with Xyl. This game is going to all come down to how many times scum gets shot vs. how many times town misfires and dies Scum has no kill, not even a vote. Each mislynch gets us closer to losing, which means a pro-town person acting scummy to try and get the gun is just bad play that lowers our odds of winning.

We don't have that much room for error here. Basically, we have to shoot right 4 times out of 8, half of the time. Considering that a shot right now has only a little better then a 1/3 chance of hitting scum, we have to shoot significantly better then random to win. So, we have to be smart about this, scumhunt properly, be active, and generally play well in order to win.

Traditionally, games like this (this game reminds me of a mix of Bad Idea and Kingmaker) don't go well for the town, mostly because town either lurks or makes bad choices. I'm not saying that to get people depressed. From a game theory point of view, we've got a decent chance, better then in 4:8 nightless, so long as we just play well and don't be stupid.

[Yosarian2]

EBWOP: My only question is, Yos, about your post, don't the numbers change based on if we hit scum or not?

Hmm. Yeah, they do, you're right. Right now, we lose if we mislynch 4 times in a row. If we hit scum today, we get an extra chance, and only lose if we mislynch 5 times. Since scum have to get 50% of town to win, each time we hit scum, we get an extra mislynch.

Ok, that's good, it's not quite as bad as I thought.

[Yosarian2]

@Yosarian2: Do you prefer playing as scum or town? Why?

Neither, really. I like playing a mix and being scum in some games and town in other games. I think that improves my play.

[Yosarian2]

Bogre is pretty clearly in the wrong here. i don't know if it makes him scum or not, but he's defiantly not making sense.

[Yosarian2]

Define why I am clearly in the wrong.

Because you're misinterpreting what Rite said, and obviously so.

The conversation was like this (paraphrasing slightly):

Bogre: "I'm not afraid of getting shot, becuase I'm town."

Rite: "Bogre is saying town shouldn't be afraid of being shot because they won't die. I don't agree; your survival isn't important, it's the victory of the town that's important, so pro-town people should be afraid of being shot; not becuase they'd die, but because it hurts the town's chances of winning.

At that point, you FOS him, with the bizzare statement of

You don't die, the confirmed town player does. It's the same as a mislynch, which is bad for the town. But you aren't affected.

Which is EXACTLY WHAT RITE JUST SAID. Either you're not reading his posts, not understanding his posts, or you're pretending you don't in order to invent reasons to attack him. At this point, I'm not sure which it is.

And then you went on to pretty much fabricate a scumtell out of nothing. Rite pointed out that your pro-town claim was useless, and asked you to "tell us something we don't know", and you pretended that meant he "already knew you were a townie", when it's completely obvious to everyone that that's not what he was saying at all.

[Yosarian2]

do your research please, Bogre always acts like this;

Ok, how so?

[Yosarian2]

Xyl, explain exactly why my play is anti-town.

It's not so much of "is your play anti-town". My question is "is Bogre a pro-town person who's actually scumhunting, or is he a scum faking scumhunting with bad logic, deliberate misrepresentations, and fake scumtells." And that's what I'm trying to figure out right now.

I personally find it odd that, after asking me the question, you never responded to my post 64 where I explained why I think you are misrepresenting rite, and instead just kept declaring rite to be scum without even commenting on it.

[Yosarian2]

In a few hours, I'll be going away for thanksgiving weekend. Might not have much or any internet access until monday.

[Yosarian2]

@Yos.

It's not that he's saying the town is hurt by a townie being shot. I mean, that's pretty simple to know.

It's the other things he's focusing on, and the way he's presenting his argument.

Huh? What other thing is he foucsing on?

I think Bogre's line of thinking is that if you're shot, and you're town, you don't die, so there's nothing to be afraid of.

I'm not sure I agree; or, more clearly, I think I might be on Xyl's side on this one. Even though it might be more fun to play in a game until the end, a town win is a town win, and your priority should be ensuring the win of the town, not your personal survival.

You said a town shouldn't be afraid of getting shot because he won't die. He explained your argument, clearly showing that he understands what you were saying, and then says he dosn't agree that town shouldn't be afraid of getting shot, because the personal survival thing dosn't matter, what matters is winning, and getting shot hurts that.

What, exactly, was this "other thing" you think he was focusing on? What's wrong with the way he put that, exactly?

[Yosarian2]

He was focusing on personal survival. He thought my entire answer was based off wanting to survive myself, which isn't true.

But your whole comment that "town shouldn't be afraid of getting shot because they won't die" is ENTIERLY based on a focus on personal survival. That's the only way your comment makes sense, is if the person who is "not afraid" is not afraid because they, personally, would survive being shot, even though it hurts the town. He was entierly correct in saying that your comment is about personal survival instead of the good of the town.

[Yosarian2]

This thread had a near-death experience. D:

Anyway, I don't have anything in particular to add at this time. Certain people who know who they are need to talk more, or risk being shot.

Vaya, especially.

Otherwise, there's a lot of people who haven't posted all weekend; I'm willing to give them some slack because of the holiday weekend and all that, but I expect to hear from all of them sometime soon.

[Yosarian2]

Scum: Bogre, Sarag, ortolan, DraketheFake

Almost agree. I don't think ort is scum, at least not yet.

What about now?

Do you honestly think ort would defend all his scumbuddies?

So, your argument is that Ort is defending Borgre, so you don't think they're scum together? That seems completely backwards to me; it's basically the bad kind of WIFOM. In reality, scum do defend each other all the time.

[Yosarian2]

Scum: Bogre, Sarag, ortolan, DraketheFake

Almost agree. I don't think ort is scum, at least not yet.

What about now?

Do you honestly think ort would defend all his scumbuddies?

So, your argument is that Ort is defending Borgre, so you don't think they're scum together? That seems completely backwards to me; it's basically the bad kind of WIFOM. In reality, scum do defend each other all the time.

No, it's that he's defending Bogre, Sarag and Drake, all three who I think have a chance to be scum. If some of them end up being town, then yes, I think there's a chance ort is scum.

You make my brains hurt.

If person A defended person B, C, and D, and only person B, C, and D, and all three of person B, C, and D flipped scum, you would consider that a point in person A's favor? Really?

Besides which, you seem to be taking Xyl's list with a level of seriousness that kind of perplexes me, considering we're on page 6 off day 1 here. Not that Xyl's list wasn't intended to be a serious attack, I'm sure it was, but it sounds like you're actually expecting him to name the entire scumgroup at this point of the game, which seems a little bizzare to me.

[Yosarian2]

I believe she's referencing the fact that it's unlikely he'd be so openly defending every scumbuddy of his.

Meh. I've seen it happen.

[Yosarian2]

I have a question for Yos: do you think the scum would have been better off picking you as initial gunbearer instead of VMD?

Eh, not really. I like to think I'd do ok as gunbearer although day 1 is likely to be somewhat random no matter what. Also, I'd expect the scum to want to start out giving the gun to someone who's less experenced.

[Yosarian2]

It occurs to me that correct play as a townie is to encourage being shot, but that the way to avoid being shot is not to try and avoid being shot.

And, yeah, Xyl is right here, that is NOT what a townie should do. The town wins if the townies don't get shot and loses if they do. If 5 townies play well enough so they never get shot, the town wins.

[Yosarian2]

I'll amend: correct play as a

suspected

townie.

No, that's still wrong. The correct play of a suspected townie is to defend yourself and do your best to convince the gunbarer that you are town and shouldn't be shot. Every time a townie gets shot, we get closer to losing.

This game rests more squarely on the decision-making/scum-hunting abilities of the individual rather than the group. Since the penalty for being incorrectly suspected isn't death - and since survival instinct won't kick in - the only person coming under suspicion who should hedge at the prospect of being shot this early is a scum player.

As Rite correctly pointed out, survival is irrelevent if you're playing to win. The key isn't survival, the key is avoiding mislynches from happening.

Yes, a townie under early suspicion in the interests of the town playing a perfect game might try desperately to avoid the gun, but the unique mechanics of the game make it so that weaseling out from under the gun should basically be a heavy scum tell.

What? Every townie should be trying to avoid getting shot; how the heck would that be a scum tell?

[Yosarian2]

2) DraketheFake is probably scum here.

Yeah, I'd tend to agree with that. He dosn't feel right.

[Yosarian2]

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt, and say that you're missing the whole point. What he said didn't need to be said. He was considering (pretending to consider IMO) whether one could shoot oneself if one were the gunbearer. Why the hell would one consider that?

Because he was specifically asked by the gunbearer "would you shoot yourself if you were the gunbearer?". In trying to answer that odd question, wondering if the gunbearer actually can shoot himself or not seems fairly normal to me.

[Yosarian2]

A quick reactionary question? Do we know for sure that we are unable to shoot ourselves anyway? It isn't stated that we can't, and that would be one hell of a blow to the town IMO (A day with no lynch except worse because of how this game works).

The correct answer to the original question was "uh, no, that's stupid". He went far too far with his reply.

Vala: what did you hope to achieve by asking the question, and do you think DoS' response was scummy?

Ortolan, I'm curious; why are you questioning the confirmed innocent gunbearer? Giving her advice or suggesting what she should be doing is fine, I have no problem with that, but that dosn't seem like what you're trying to do here.

[Yosarian2]

I want to know what the intention of your question was, and whether she thinks the response was scummy. I'm not interrogating her, I knows she's town, I just want to see in detail what she thinks of the response and how it matches to responses she might have expected.

That's the thing, though. The fact that you're trying to figure out what the gunbearer is thinking isn't really a pro-town thing to do; it's more like what a scum might do when trying to manipulate the gunbearer, or when trying to decide if they need to bus their scumbuddy or not. A pro-town person, knowing the gunbearer is pro-town, I would think would be more willing to let the gunbearer keep their cards close to their chest if that's what they choose to do.

[Yosarian2]

Yeah, I agree with Xyl. I'd definalty rather shoot Drake then Rite.

[Yosarian2]

stuff

Hey, way to read through the thread and post, uh, nothing new.

Pretty easy to parrot the things -everyone- else has come up with.

WTF? Would you rather he not posted anything?

Obviously Bogre's just annoyed that someone else agrees that he's wrong about everything, anti-town, and also kind of scummy.

[Yosarian2]

Discussion between ortolan and rite - they both

seem

to be nitpicking in an unhelpful way. I don't

find

ortolan's accusations of rite to be

particularly

compelling, but rite

seems

to be misrepresenting ort's case. I

think

rite comes out a

little

worse in it, since misrepresenting someone's argument

seems

less town than making a flimsy case in the early game. I have a

slightly

town "

vibe

" from rite,

but

that may only be because he was attacked by Bogre in a really poor way, so I

may

have to

re-assess

him.

Waffle harder please.

Yup.

The way Sarag is posting here makes me suspect that Sarag is scum, possibly scum with ortolan, and and rite is town. That's just how it sounds to me, like Sarag is trying to get rite lynched and defend Ortolan, especally now that the king's declared she might shoot rite today, but he's trying to do so in a really wishy washy way so he dosn't get called on it if rite does get shot and then gets the gun.

Unlikely as it seems, it's really starting to seem possible to me that Xyl may actually right about his entire list, which would just be completely absurd.

[Yosarian2]

EBWOP: What do people think of shooting Sarag D1 instead if Drake should happen to come back and actually post something towny?

Sarag look suspicious, but at this moment, I'd rather see either Drake or Bogre dead.

[Yosarian2]

Yeah, don't worry about who would or wouldn't make a good gun bearer.

In fact, if you think person X is likely to be scum, but are worried he'd make a bad gunbarer if you're wrong, then the right thing to do would be to shoot them early,instead of risking them becoming gunbarer on a later, more important day.

[Yosarian2]

drake isn't scum

You seem oddly certain about that, ortolan. Can you explain why you think that?

[Yosarian2]

Page 5
- Yos as of Post 104, did you think Bogre was scum or not? You didn't really give a stance on him.

Well, yeah. As I said earlier:

Bogre is pretty clearly in the wrong here. i don't know if it makes him scum or not, but he's defiantly not making sense.

I then spent quite a while in a back and fourth with him to try to figure that out.

By that point, though, I was becoming increasinly suspicious of him, especally after he ignored everything I said and just kept attacking Rite anyway. And then he pretty much just stopped posting for a while, and basically posted very little in the way of content from Nov. 26-today, which means i'd be pretty happy seeing him shot right now.

- Fair enough on both points I made against you. I just don't like that Bogre even asked you the question. I don't think you really should have answered it, because then it gives him a way out. Slight scumtell for you, big scumtell for Bogre. And I had a feeling it was sarcasm, just wasn't sure. However, I don't like your attitude towards Bogre. You seem wishy-washy on him. And I don't really even see Drake's case against you, so the fact that you're worried about it is surprising, and even pretty scummy. Also worried about OMGUS, which town really shouldn't be.

Who is this all directed towards? Rite, correct?

[Yosarian2]

That would be because I still felt rite was scum. So you've been getting suspicious of me for not being convinced by your opinions. Welp, I think your opinions are wrong about him.

No, I don't have a problem with you not agreeing with me. I did think it was rather suspicious that when you misread rite's post, and I explained to you why you were wrong about his post, you pretty much ignored everything I said and just kept suspecting rite without feeling the need to either defend your attack on him or come up with some new reason to attack him.

If you were a townie actually trying to find scum, I'd think you'd be much more interested in trying to figure out if your opinion on him was correct or not, and if you thought you were right, also in trying to explain to others why you were right and they were wrong. It didn't seem like you cared at all if you were correct about him or not, and that is a scumtell.

[Yosarian2]

That's..actually kind of a scummy reason, HH. "I don't want X to get shot today because he'll become gunbarer and then shoot me" is exactly what scum would likely be thinking in that situation.

[Yosarian2]

I don't really have a good third candidate. Yosarian2 keeps sliding under my radar and seems to be playing very reactively

...

what?

I've been very active, and quite agressivly scumhunting the entire game. I haven't been "reactive" at all, other people have been forced to react to my attacks. Including you.

So what the heck are you talking about?

[Yosarian2]

Huh, I just got prodded, which is kind of odd since I posted right before I went away for the weekend.

Anyway, glad to see Rewq is working his way though the thread. So far, don't really disagree with anything he's saying, especially about Bogre obviously.

[Yosarian2]

Well, I think I made clear who my suspects were, Xyl:

EBWOP: What do people think of shooting Sarag D1 instead if Drake should happen to come back and actually post something towny?

Sarag look suspicious, but at this moment, I'd rather see either Drake or Bogre dead.

My top 2 scumlist was been Drake/Bogre. My top 4 was been Drake, Bogre, Sarag, and Ortlan, although I'm less sure about Ort recently; I could see some of his posts as something that could come from town.

So far, Rew isn't giving me the bad vibe Drake was. He hasn't really said anything that hasn't already been said, though. My inclination right now would be to shoot Bogre today and observe rewq455 a little longer, so long as he intends to keep being active tommorow.

So, my top 3 suspects right now would be (Bogre, Sarag, rewq455). I really want to see Bogre get shot here; I just have trouble seeing his actions as likely to wn at all here.

[Yosarian2]

That's..actually kind of a scummy reason, HH. "I don't want X to get shot today because he'll become gunbarer and then shoot me" is exactly what scum would likely be thinking in that situation.

You're calling him scummy for not wanting to get shot. Haven't we already established that no one wants to get shot?

No. If a townie suspect someone, they're obviously going to be less worried about "what happens when that person becomes gunbearer", because they don't really expect that person to become a gunbearer, they expect them to get shot and die. On the other hand, a scum knows the guy he's picking a fight with is town, so I would expect him to be much more paranoid about picking a fight with him and then getting him shot, knowing that person will become gunbearer.

Also, yes no one wants to get shot, but any time anyone in any mafia game is more worried about personal survival then about finding and lynching scum, it's a huge scum tell, because scum mostly care about surviving while town mostly care about finding scum; not being suspected/lynched/shot is important, but it should always be a lower priority for town then for scum.

I've been very active, and quite agressivly scumhunting the entire game. I haven't been "reactive" at all, other people have been forced to react to my attacks. Including you.

So what the heck are you talking about?

You've been better lately. I was referring to your comments on Bogre early in the game. You came in with a weak stance on an ongoing discussion. I didn't see you generate much for quite some time after that.

I wouldn't at all say it was a weak stance. I was unsure about Bogre's alignment at the time, as I made clear, and so my reactions was to immediately take steps to get reactions and get answers from Bogre in order to try to find out his alignment. Trying to figure out someone's alignment as a means of scumhunting is not a scum tell, Sarag, and neither is being unsure about someone's alignment during the early part of day 1, especally when I am unsure, so I spend time gathering more information, and then take a stance once I have information.

Now you, on the other hand, seemed to be trying to have it both ways in regards to ortolean and rite, in a way that seemed scummy to me, because you didn't really seem to be trying to scumhunt; you seemed to be trying to go down on record saying something, perhaps so you could use it later. Your wishy-washy behavior there also fits my whole "scum would be paranoid about picking a fight with a town they know may soon become gunbearer" scumtell for this setup.

Page 5

On the contrary, I'm a little concerned that there is too much focus on Bogre, despite my hand in it. I think it's a real risk that lurker scum could be kicking back, enjoying the show at this point. Bogre has had this much bad attention because he wasn't very good at defending himself. I'm clearly not reluctant to defend myself from attacks that have actual substance - see the majority of my last post.

But how do you tell the difference between a town player that can't defend, and a scum player that can't defend?

That's exactly the point I was making - you can't.

And that kind of wishy-washy defense you're making for Bogre here might either be an attempt to disarm a wagon against your buddy while maintaining deniability, or, if Bogre is town, an attempt to make nice with him before he becomes gunbearer.

[Yosarian2]

But part of the plan is that the first three are all scum, so obviously if one of them somehow turned out to be town, they couldn't follow the plan and would have to stop.

FTR, it seems clear to me that it would be better to kill people one at a time and then re-evaluate everything as we start to get alignment info.

[Yosarian2]

That means Zakeri/AlmasterGM still leads the way. Yosarian2 makes an appearance in the list. Others TBD.

So, wait...you think it's suspicious that I suspected Bogre yesterday, even though you did as well?

This whole post seems kind of odd; it's like you're trying to find scum by just looking at who was suspicious of Bogre yesterday, even though almost everyone, including you, was suspicious of Bogre. So how is that a scum tell?

[Yosarian2]

No. I didn't make it clear in that post. You were quite noncomittal about Bogre. You've been following Xylthixlm like a lost puppy.

Wrong on all counts.

None of my posts were influenced by Xyl's posts. I find the fact that he came to many of the same conclusions as I did a pro-town tell on his part, since it seems like he's likely looking at the game from the same perspective that I am.

It's also pretty absurd for to claim I was "noncomittal" about Bogre, considering just how much time I spent commenting on his play.

[Yosarian2]

Yos: I can see where someone might get the impression that you're following me...

Hello everyone.

I agree with Xyl.

And, yeah, Xyl is right here

Yeah, I agree with Xyl.

Maybe it's time to make that "Yos2 agrees with me" smiley.

Meh. "Following" implies that I held the suspicious I did because I was following you, and that's just wrong, and I think obviously so.

I'm getting a really bad vibe from Howard's posts here today. Most of the same posts by Bogre that I had a problem with, this is what Howard said about them when he replaced in:

You also scumslipped. You said you know I'm a townie, and to tell us something you don't know. Only scum know I'm a townie.

So, you're scum.

*facepalm* EPIC FAIL.

Rite is scum.

You may fire when ready.

Attempt to create WIFOM when/if he is shot.

I was presenting the position that I knew would garner reactions.

Bogre, my first reaction to that post is: Holy backtracking, Batman!!

QFT

I have the freedom to act pretty dynamically to see how people bend or prickle in response. I mean, no one can cause my death except myself, so its really moot on what anyone else thinks of -me-.

*facepalm*

Oh hello, scum.

More WIFOM creation.

So I fail to understand how Howard could possibly have a problem with my earlier attacks on Bogre for those exact same posts, or how he can accuse me of "following" you when he said similar things to what I said when he joined the game; does that mean Howard was also following either you or me?

[Yosarian2]

@Xylthixlm: I understand that you feel that Yosarian2 is town here, but defending him doesn't help him look any better nor me to develop my read.

<------ Scummy comment.

It's also pretty absurd for to claim I was "noncomittal" about Bogre, considering just how much time I spent commenting on his play.

I'll handle this sentence in reverse order. Commenting does not show commitment, I know you know this. Look at your iso 3, 6, and 22. You finally make a commitment in 24 (one post which will become important after my gold nugget reveal).

I commented that he was wrong and that I wasn't sure if it was an alignment tell or not. I then spent my next 4 posts questioning him (or, in one case, quesitoning Ort's read on him) in order to try and find out his alignment.

You still have yet to explain why any of that is scummy. Do you really think it's bad for pro-town people to start out unsure about who is scum and then to try to figure it out through questions, debates, and reactions? You do realize that that's, like, the entire point of the game, right?

[Yosarian2]

Yeah, Bogre, it would be better for the town if you would kind of take charge here, put pressure on people, get people to respond, find out what people think about other people, ect. If there's one thing I learned about kingmaker games, it's that the king need to take charge.

[Yosarian2]

(nods) Yes.

In a kingmaker game, which this basically is, the king has the final call, which means the king has to be active. He's the one who has to pressure people, he's the one who has to question people, he has to keep the game moving.

[Yosarian2]

So here's some questions to get you guys going.

1.) Why do you feel I was tunneling on Rite/Huck? Was this deserved?

Well, like I said yesterday, I kind of think you attacked rite for a bad reason, and then when that was pointed out, you just kept attacking him, so yeah, I think you were tunneling on him.

2)If you had one failing as a scumhunter in this game, what would it be?

Well, I can't really answer a question like that until I know which of my suspects I was right about. I was wrong about you being scum, clearly; perhaps I tend to focus overly much on people who seem unwilling to defend or explain themselves. I don't know.

3)Who has been the most effective/least effecting in scumhunting?

Again, I'm not sure if you can really answer that question until we know who was right and who was wrong. I think Xyl's scumhunting has been effective at getting reactions and creating info. Least effective...hmm, let me see who hasn't done much scumhunting yet.

Almaster hasn't, really, although he just replaced in.

Dragon of Summer has been here all game, and he hasn't done much scumhunting of his own either; about the most he did was follow me and Xyl .

4) Who is the most/least protown? Why are you protown? What have you done anti-town?

Now that I've noticed how little DOS has done this game, I'm going to have to consider him anti-town. I think Xyl's behavior has been very pro-town, with the degree to which he's been active, scumhunting, and trying to get the town moving.

I can't really think of anything I've done that's anti-town.

[Yosarian2]

@HackerHuck: I thought my question was very clear: "How did you feel about Xylthixlm guiding Vala Mal Doran?" Answer; don't avoid.

Is that what you think was happening, Howard?

@Yosarian2, rewq455, HackerHuck: Why the worry about the evidence prior to reveal?

Huh? What are you talking about?

@Yosarian2: Why did you not answer my one suspect question?

I'm not sure what question you're talking about, but right now my main suspect would be either you, Sarag, or DOS.

[Yosarian2]

People who need to get shot and die: Howard, Sarag, DOS.

[Yosarian2]

Ort, if you are town, it's your duty to try not to get shot. When you say stuff like that, if it's not a gambit, you're at least skirting the edge of "play to win" stuff. Don't, please.

(Of course, if you are scum and that was a gambit to make you look town, then it's perfectly acceptable under the rules. )

[Yosarian2]

I am claiming my scumlist is more accurate than anyone else's, and I trust it way better.

This attitude is exactally why town always loses "bad idea mafia" style games.

If you look at the classic bad idea mafia setup, it's so incredibly weighted towards the town it's insane, but scum have won all but 1 of those games, as well as almost all other daykill games. Because some town people are so overconfident, and the overconfident people seem to be wrong way more often then even a random kill would have been.

I'm not even going to call this a scum tell, becuase I've seen way to many town do it. But it's stupid.

However, continuing to read, ortolan's later posts look scummier. He claimes he knew Bogre didn't want to shoot him, and when almaster asks why he said all that then, which is a good question, he just calls him scum and ignores it. Which really makes the whole thing look like a scum gambit.

[Yosarian2]

I really didn't think ort was gambiting, until this page.

bogre's not even gonna shoot me, he's gonna shoot the scum. Also I'm not an idiot to want the gun so I can frag the scum. Who wouldn't?

What was the point of that whole charade, then?

stop trying to score points scummasterGM and ScummyHuck

Now, after that sequence of posts, I'm more suspicious of him.

He still wouldn't be one of my top suspects, though. I'd bet money right now that Howard is scum, and DOS is still just gliding along without saying much of his own.

[Yosarian2]

It doesn't lead to finding scum, I already found the scum. As I said, unless Bogre is gonna shoot one off my list today, please shoot me, so I can actually vig all the scum tomorrow instead of watching more horrible mislynches

On a side note, since it looks like ort was apparently town in California Trilogy, I am going to have to admit that him being stubbornly, over-confidently wrong like this, right up to the point of willing stupidity, while ignoring everyone else, may be part of his town meta.

His behavior still makes more sense objectively as scum then it would town, but I'm not longer confident about his alignment.

[Yosarian2]

Anyway, I really want to hear more people comment on Howard. Every time I go back and re-read his posts, my brain just screams scum.

[Yosarian2]

Anyway, I really want to hear more people comment on Howard. Every time I go back and re-read his posts, my brain just screams scum.

Which posts specifically?

Well, in retrospect, I really dislike the way he talked about Bogre yesterday. In his first analysis post, my impression was that he thought Bogre was dumb town, with comments like this:

If we're lucky Bogre is scum trying to seem like a townie trying to get the gun. If we're unlucky Bogre is a townie who is playing against the town. Either way I want him dead as soon as possible.

The good news: I agree. The bad news: If he's not scum that means his death equals two town deaths.

@Bogre: (regarding post 99) Yes. Your play (if you are town) has created a lot of focus on you, distracting attention away from others and is therefore anti-town.

THen, after that post, he just keeps saying he thinks Bogre is scum, but never gives a reason for it:

Top 3? Zakeri, Bogre, Slicey/DraketheFake.

Borge: Scummy.

Concerning Bogre, see my scumlist. (Hint: he's number 2.)

And then, after all that, his analysis of the Bogre wagon the next day really sounded scummy to me. He attacks everyone who supported the Bogre wagon (first attacking you for starting it, then attacking everyone else as "the dirty followers".

He really seems to be worried about you being accepted as town, Xyl, and seems to be doing his best to undermine that without taking you on directly.

I also got kind of wierded out by his reaction to you defending me.

@Xylthixlm: I understand that you feel that Yosarian2 is town here, but defending him doesn't help him look any better nor me to develop my read.

I mean, huh? If player A defends player B, and especally considering he seemed to be suspicious of both me and you, why wouldn't that help develop his reads on both players? If I'm attacking someone, and someone else comes to their defense, you get just a ton of information from it. He should be prodding you to find out more about what you think, not trying to shut you up here. The only reason I can think of why he wouldn't want me to defend you is if he's trying to avoid getting in a fight with you, because most people believe you are pro-town, and most people seem to be listening to you.

I don't have a problem with his Sarag scumtell; I'm not sure it's as strong as he seems to think it is, but it may be. But his play otherwise, the way he's been making cases, and his posting in general just seems like scum play to me. It's am impression I get whenever I read through his posts in isolation or in context.

[Yosarian2]

Xyl:

First off, Xyl's been taking complete and total control over the town, which is something that it's in scum's best interest to do.

I do not think Xyl aggressively leading the town is a scumtell for him.

Actually, I don't really think that's a scumtell for anyone, but I also know that he personally does that as town consistently.

[Yosarian2]

Sarag I really like you for defending me. Such a shame you're scum

Just Shoot Me! so I can win the game

Ort, what happened to your playstyle?

I just happened to go back and re-read lynch all lurkers again, and you were a good townie there; a little laid back, logical, effective, and reasonable.

You're playing this game like you played the California game; overconfident for no good reason, convinced you're right and everyone else is wrong, loud but unhelpful.

Let me ask you a question. If you're town, what would you say you learned from the way the California game went?

[Yosarian2]

Xyl, is leading the town generally a good move?

If someone is "leading the town", it usually means they're active, scumhunting aggressively, playing well, making a lot of sense, and generally have the trust of most of the town, and therefore people are listening to them.

None of that is a scumtell.

[Yosarian2]

None of that is a scumtell.

Why...did you just answer a question that was not directed to you?

Because Xyl was being attacked for an obviously bad reason by both you and Nacho, and I'm trying to figure out if that means you and Nacho didn't understand mafia theory, or if it has more to do with one or both of your alignments.

Now explain this to me. Why is "leading the town" a scumtell? And why, when I explain to you that it's not, was your only reaction to criticize me for "answering a question directed at someone else" rather then respond to what I actually said?

[Yosarian2]

You're extremely active. You're not scumhunting.

?

You're going to need to back this up, I think. I think it's pretty obvious that Xyl has made strong logical cases for several people being scum over the course of the game. That dosn't actually mean Xyl is town, of course; he certainly has the ability to fake that as scum. But I really think I need to you explain why he's "not scumhunting".

[Yosarian2]

You're extremely active. You're not scumhunting.

?

You're going to need to back this up, I think. I think it's pretty obvious that Xyl has made strong logical cases for several people being scum over the course of the game. That dosn't actually mean Xyl is town, of course; he certainly has the ability to fake that as scum. But I really think I need to you explain why he's "not scumhunting".

He has made several good cases for people being scum throughout the game, sure. But for every 1 good post he makes, he has 10 more that are either advice, witty retort that doesn't really add anything to the game, or spam.

So, if he's made several good cases for people being scum (especally when he's made more cases them many of the other people in the game), then how is he "not scumhunting"?

Are "advice", or "witty retorts" scumtells, if he is also scumhunting? (Also, I don't really think any of the posts he's made are "spam", I think most or all of them serve a purpose).

[Yosarian2]

All 5 of those posts certanly did serve a purpose.

You really don't think it serves a purpose for Xyl to point out a specific post that he thinks makes a person look more suspicious, to increase the pressure on someone, and to make clear how convinced he was that that person was scum?

Saying, in response to a specific post,"keep digging, scum" or "still scum" is obviously a useful post, because he's saying that that specific post looked scummy. In most of those cases, I agreed with him (although he turned out to be incorrect). But, yes, that's a good example of how be an aggressive scumhunter and increase the pressure on a person.

If you have a problem with those posts, Nacho, why don't you go back, look at the post Xyl was responding to, and say if you agree or disagree with Xyl's reaction to them? For example, look at this sequence of posts:

Bogre is pretty clearly in the wrong here. i don't know if it makes him scum or not, but he's defiantly not making sense.

Bogre is pretty clearly in the wrong here. i don't know if it makes him scum or not, but he's defiantly not making sense.

Define why I am clearly in the wrong. Why are you defending the scum, Yos? Rite has scumslipped and should be shot. Sarag is hung up on the fact that of everyone, I was asked to answer 'why shouldn't you shoot me'. Well, the fact is that she shouldn't shoot me because a) she would die, and thats bad for the town, and b) it would be much better if she shot Rite.

I am curious as to what a better answer of that would be, Sarag. Obviously she will see that I am scumhunting (and actually have found one). Why shouldn't she shoot you?

Your first feeling should be, 'because then she'd die.' If its not, then YOU ARE SCUM.

Why are you defending the scum, Yos?

^ scum

If you had been in the game at the time, would you have agreed with Xyl's assessment that Bogre's reaction to my post looked scummy there? Why or why not?

You could do that for all of those posts; you may disagree with them, you may question Xyl's motive for them seeing as how Bogre came up town, but I hardly think you can call any of them "spam".

[Yosarian2]

I'd like to know what Yosarian2 thinks of Sarag's case on Howard and whether that jives with the feelings he got.

Well, in general, I'm not a big fan of looking for contradictions or mind changes as scumhunting; people change their minds, or re-read and come to totally different conclusions. I'm not interested in defending Howard, obv, since I'm pretty sure he's scum, but I don't think that the case Sarag posted against him in 587 is that strong.

This specific point:

His position on Xylthixlm seems to change every time he mentions him:

Overall, Xylthixlm doesn't look good in hindsight.

And then post 450 where he lists Xyl as one of the "most effective" players.

Howard, do you think the most effective scumhunting is coming from scum players?

And in these two posts we have an outright contradiction:

@Bogre: Based on the scum lists, Xylthixlm has been pretty much accepted as town.

I don't like how he's stating that Xyl has been accepted as town. I don't think you can make the connection that agreeing with Xyl's scumlist is the same as finding him town.

I'm not saying it's about the scum lists. Try again.

Is it about the scum lists or not? If not, what is it about?
.

Is interesting, but not primarily for the contradictions. More that it goes back to what I was saying earlier; I got the feeling Howard was really dancing and weaving on the issue of Xyl, and my gut is that he's doing it because it kind of scares him that Xyl has such widespread support.

My impression is that he would like to undermine the trust people have in Xyl and stop him from being thought of as "confirmed", but dosn't dare to take him on directly at this stage of the game when Xyl has so much popular support. That's very much a scum tactic; if Howard were actually town who was suspicious of Xyl, I'd expect him to go after Xyl in a much more straightforward way then this.

[Yosarian2]

My impression is that he would like to undermine the trust people have in Xyl and stop him from being thought of as "confirmed", but dosn't dare to take him on directly at this stage of the game when Xyl has so much popular support. That's very much a scum tactic; if Howard were actually town who was suspicious of Xyl, I'd expect him to go after Xyl in a much more straightforward way then this.

Interesting point. Do you think that would mean Xyl's list is pretty accurate if Howard is scum or do you think he's planting a seed to get Xyl shot because his list is all wet?

Hmm. Well, it could go either way. I was mainly thinking that:

A. Scum wouldn't want someone pro-town to be basically "unlynchable"; they would want to at least have a chance to get Xyl shot in endgame if they needed to.

B. Anyone who's a good, well-known player, that's actively scumhunting, and that's universally trusted is a huge inherent threat to the scum, especally if they don't have a night kill.

I will say that if Howard flips scum, I'll be almost 100% confident that Xyl is town.

[Yosarian2]

As I was rereading I thought it would have been really nice if Vala had stated who -else- she thought might have been scum. I'm not sure giving town reads would be beneficial, though.

Eh, there's no harm in giving town reads. Scum don't have any nightkills this game, after all.

[Yosarian2]

Actually, after post 602, I am less suspicious of Nacho. I'm not as certain as Ort is, but I no longer think his attack on Xyl is a big scumtell; I think I can see where he might be coming from now.

[Yosarian2]

Sarag, do you really want a dead-weight gunbearer? Do you really really want DoS to be the gunbearer?

Interesting; you believe DOS is town, then? Any specific reason for that?

Don't think so. shooting scummy people > shooting lurkish people

So, your plan is to never shoot lurkers, to tell the scum that we won't ever shoot lurkers, and hope the scum decide never to take advantage of that?

By the way, I'm still waiting for you to answer my questions.

[Yosarian2]

What questions?

These questions:

None of that is a scumtell.

Why...did you just answer a question that was not directed to you?

Because Xyl was being attacked for an obviously bad reason by both you and Nacho, and I'm trying to figure out if that means you and Nacho didn't understand mafia theory, or if it has more to do with one or both of your alignments.

Now explain this to me. Why is "leading the town" a scumtell? And why, when I explain to you that it's not, was your only reaction to criticize me for "answering a question directed at someone else" rather then respond to what I actually said?

[Yosarian2]

Well, shit.

Mod: Could you prod Dragon of Summer, please?

[Yosarian2]

This post is pretty interesting given who was selected as gunbearer.

It's also interesting when you think that scum chose the gun-bearer and you're doing what's the equivalent of NK speculation on a normal game. But you're doing gunbearer speculation instead.

NK speculation in a normal game can be pro-town. This kind of gunbarer specluation here is even relevant. And I agree, Ort-scum would not have picked to be gunbearer DOS, who was a lurker who had said he would have shot Ort.

[Yosarian2]

At this point, my main suspects are Howard and Maemuki (who still never answered my questions from yesterday, btw). Not certain who my third suspect would be; Sarag seems a reasonable suspect, but I'm a little wishy washy on that one.

I'm pretty confident Xyl and Ort are both town. I've also got kind of a gut feeling that Nacho is probably town, although I'm less confident about that one.

Let me go back and re-read AlmasterGM.

[Yosarian2]

Hmmm...yeah, Almaster could be scum. It's notable that really all he's commented on for most of the game is his attacks on Ortolan.

[Yosarian2]

I don't think this is going anywhere without more DragonsofSummer.

(nods)

DOS, it'd be helpful if you started seriously pressuring and threatening people you might consider lynching, force them to react and to defend themselves, and force other people to respond to your attacks on those people. You're basically the entire lynch mob today; everything that the town needs votes to do, like pressure, get reactions, force scum to choose if they're going to defend each other or bus, ect, we're counting on you for.

[Yosarian2]

(nods)

I suspect scum are playing for the quick win here. If they were playing for the long game, they probably wouldn't have confirmed DOS town like that, since many people were suspicious of him and otherwise he might have eventually been shot. Instead, I think they're trying to end the game today, probably hoping that DOS either kills Ort or that he fails to kill at all.

[Yosarian2]

Yosarian2: What are you seeing on Howard?

Along with everything I said yesterday, Howard's basically said next to nothing at all today, and seems to be trying to go unnoticed.

@AlmasterGM: Concerning 647, what exactly is interesting? Spell it out for me.

@DragonsofSummer: Sarag still tops my list. I'll give you two more after some review.

My next two would be Maemuki or HackerHuck.

@Maemuki: Top three suspects.

@Maemuki: Sorry. Why HackerHuck and myself?

That's all he's said today. Town don't go into stealth/lurk mode in lynch or lose; scum do.

[Yosarian2]

Yosarian2, Nachomamma8: What people do you think I should not shoot today (with your reasoning)?

I would not shoot Xyl, Ort, or Nacho.

I'm pretty confident that Xyl is town, more confident then I am of anyone else. He's seemed obvtown all game to me.

Ort...I don't think he would have played the way he has if he was scum. I also really don't think he would have made you gunbarer if he was scum.

Nacho, I'm a little more unsure of, but the way he directly went after Xyl even though everyone else in the game thought he was obvtown, but then was actually willing to listen to counterarguments and re-consider his points, and his thought process in general to me, just looks like town honestly trying to find scum to me.

That leaves Howard, Mae, Hacker, Sarag, and Almester. Out of those 5, I'm really not feeling the Hacker lynch; mostly because Mae, Howard, and Sarag have all been uber-attacking him all game (often in ways that seem out of proportion to what he actually did) and I have trouble coming up with a likely 4 man scum group that includes him; it could have been that his whole scum group just decided early on to bus him, but that'd be kind of an odd decision, IMHO. In any case, I currently believe that the 4 scum are within that 5 man group.

[Yosarian2]

@Yosarian2: Maybe try looking at my site-wide posting. I'm in a limited access situation. Also, please show me where I have been "uber-attacking" HackerHuck all game. He didn't come onto my short list until D2.

(shrug) Ok, you've been attacking Hacker since day 2.

My point was that I don't really see you being scum with Hacker based on how you've been attacking him, and for that matter, I'm having trouble coming up with any likely 4 man hacker-group.

[Yosarian2]

I actually dislike the way I feel Yos, in LYOL, seems to be leading you towards two people I think will be misvigs- Howard and Maemuki, yet retaining suspicions of Sarag and Almaster should it all go pear-shaped.

Eh? My current main two choices are Howard and Almaster, with Almaster probably being the most obvious kill today. Sarag and Mae are also probably scum.

[Yosarian2]

Yos said this after apparently re-reading Almaster but it simply isn't true- he pressured Howard a fair bit, and he also weighed in on my "scum slip".

Eh, he had a few comments on day 1 that were directed at Howard, but they were pretty mild and fuzzy. His attacks on Ort are pretty much the most significant thing he's done all game, it's really the only time I've seen him take a stand on anything. Almaster is very likely scum here.

[Yosarian2]

I think that was a good choice

(nods) I agree. And if Almaster is scum, we'll be in a much better position tommorow.

[Yosarian2]

Yeah, Sarag is very probably scum here.

This flip also dosn't do anything to change my mind about Howard being scum; Howard has not mentioned Almaster since december 20th, and that was just a neutral complaint about lurking. Even as it was looking more and more likely Almaster was going to be shot yesterday, Howard never commented on him.

[Yosarian2]

Hacker or Yos, I don't really care (Yos being shot and being town has obvious benefits, I know this argument was called scummy before but I don't care), Hacker definitely needs to die sometime so now's as good a time as any.

Except if me, Xyl, and you are all town (and I'm pretty sure we are) then as Xyl pointed out, all we have to do is shoot everyone else and we win.

I mean, granted, at this point the odds are in our favor no matter what. But if we shoot me and then I'm wrong about, say, Nacho, town could still lose.

Howard's last post is pretty funny though. Did anyone else read it as: "No, don't shoot Yos now, because then he'll shoot me. Let's see if we can mislynch one more townie today and then get the gunbarer to shoot Yos tomorrow."

[Yosarian2]

Until AlmasterGM picks up the pace, he's still been as helpless as Zakeri.

HowardRoark is highly unlikely to be scum. Tunneling on him is terrible- you were doing it before and you're still doing it even after flips which come close to completely vindicating him.

Vindicating him? Are you serious? I'll look at Howard/Sarag interactions when I get the chance, but like I said yesterday, I thought Howard's interactions with Almaster were indicitive of a link.

That quote was the ONLY time Howard mentioned Almaster all game. And that was just to say "Almaster is helpless until he picks up the pace and posts more". That's not an attack at all, it's a plea for a scumbuddy to become more active. And Howard otherwise ignored him completly, even when Xyl, me, and were all starting to push for a lynch of Almaster.

Plus, look at the tone of Howard's posts. When we were at lynch or lose, he was calm and unconcerned, now that town is about to win he seems worried and unhappy.

You want to suspect me, fine. But Howard is about 95% likely to be scum here.

[Yosarian2]

and Yos said they were scum but he put them below two other people who I think are town on his list.

I'm not sure why you keep saying that.

After I went back and did a re-read on Almaster that day , I moved him up to one of the top two lynches. I said so at least twice.

As a result of killing Sarag and Almaster town is in a much, much better position. You have to take into account how little scum would want this. As such Hacker and Yos are far and away the best targets. Howard is a horrible target, and he's been attacked by the flipped scum all game.

Mmm. Early in the game, Alamster went back and fourth between attacking you, Sarag, and Howard. Considering that he was obviously distancing from Sarag, I'm not entirely sure what to make of his attacks on Howard.

Later, he switched over to a tunnel on you (which I pointed out looked pretty scummy). He spent a lot of time saying he wanted to kill you.

Still later, he switched over to attacking Mae.

Yeah, I really don't get much from that. It looks like he really wanted you dead; his attacks on Howard, though, dosn't really look any different from his attacks on his scumbuddy Sarag.

Let me look at Sarag in iso now:

-Ambiguas statements on Bogre
-Fos on Drake
-Attack on Drake, Bogre, and "maybe Yos2 or Dragon of Summer" (his post 18)
-Next, attack on Hacker, Drake, Bogre, with minor attack on Drake and me
-After Bogre flips town, repeats that Hacker is his top suspect
-His post 25 is the first time Sarag questions Howard at all. This post still seems more hostile toards Hacker, though. (with his conclusion about Howard just being a question, while his conclusions about Hacker was

Either interpretation has HackerHuck as scum. I can't think of a town motivation for the way he acted, except just a weird fixation on that comment.

-He then repeats his suggestion that Hacker is scum (post 26)

-In post 27, he agrees with my attack against Howard. This is the first time he's really expressed suspision. In the same post, he also repeats that he "can't think of a townie interpretaiton" of Howard's act
-Post 28, after gunbearer said he was likely to shoot Howard, he said he was "happy with a howard shot"
-Post 30, he's "still comfortable with the cases on HowardRoark and HackerHuck"
-Post 31 he repeats that Howard and hacker are his top 2 suspects, with Mae #3
-Post 32, he just says that he "outlined his case agaisnt Howard yesterday", and he repeats that he is suspicious against Hacker. He also defends Almaster in this post, and quesitons my attack on Almaster.
-His last post, when DoS says " why shouldn't I shoot you?" He responds "You could shoot HowardRoark instead." No mention of Hacker in this post.

Ort, I can't really see how you can look at Sarag's posts and come to the conclusion he was attacking Howard more this game then he was attacking Hacker. Can you explain how you came to that conclusion?

[Yosarian2]

I've been saying for about 4 days now that the scum are (Howard, Mae, Sarag, and ALmaster). It seems most likely that I was correct on all 4 counts.

Not sure why people didn't listen to me and just shoot Howard earlier, it's been so incredibly obvious he was scum for days now.

Ort lost some town points with the way he acted yesterday, his bogus defense of Howard and then the way he refused to answer my questions in post 757 and instead just told the gunbarer to shoot hacker or me; that's forced me to consider the possibility of an Ort/Howard scumteam, because I don't understand why a town-ort would act so confident on his read of Hacker while insisting that the much scummier Howardr had to be town, to the point where Ort was actually attacking me for daring to disgree with him on Howard.

Still, I don't think that's likely; I'm pretty sure the scumteam is Howard/Mae, especally with that incredibly scummy post Mae made at the start of the day today; I don't believe there's any possible way town-Mae could really be suffering from the delusion that I could be scum with Howard at this point.

In any case, let's shoot the obv-scum Howard today, then we can find his last scum buddy tommorow.

[Yosarian2]

Hey, Yos, some people say that you're scum, but they're not delusional to you, are they?

And I like my opinions, tyvm. If you disagree with them, k, but please don't attack me just because I disagree with you.

Because that post just looks like OMGUS. <3!

Hah. You are so scum.

You were trying to tell the gunbarer to shoot "Yos or Howard". You didn't bother to explain this, or to justify this in the face of the fact that I've been trying to get Howard shot for most of the game, or that you were pushing for Hacker to get shot yesterday while never giving a reason why while I was defending him.

It's especally funny for you to act like my post was "OMGUS", when I've been saying for DAYS now that the scum are (Howard, Mae, Sarag, and Almaster). How can my post be OMGUS when I have been attacking you and your three scumbuddies for days before you ever attacked me?

Anyway, I don't think you have "opinions". I think you know who the scum are, because I think it said so in your role PM. And the post you made at the start of the day really confirms that in my mind; there's no way a pro-town person who was actually scumhunting would just come to the conclusion at this point in the game that the scum are me and Howard. No way at all.

[Yosarian2]

Sure.

@Yosarian2: In iso 60 you say that you are less suspicious of Nachomamma8 without ever having expressed suspicion.

I spent 3 long posts questioning Nacho, especally questioning him about the reasons behind his attack on Xyl. (iso post 54, post 55, post 56). I didn't actually say I was suspicious of him at this point, but I would have thought it was obvious that I had some doubts about him or I wouldn't have been questioning him like that; I was questioning him to try to figure out his thought process and get a read on his alignment.

By ISO post 60, after he had answered my questions, I could see where he was coming from, and it felt honest to me. At that point, I was no longer suspicious of him, like I said.

In iso 70 you exclude Nachomamma8 from the all four of the scum are in this group of five list with an air of uncertainty.

Yes. I felt Nacho was town, but was not quite as sure about him as (at the time) I was about Xyl and Ort. I thought I made that pretty clear.

In iso 76 you question Xylthixlm's plan to shoot everyone but Xylthixlm, ortolan, and yourself by saying, "if we shoot me and then I'm wrong about, say, Nacho, town could still lose" without ever mentioning switching your view of Nachomamma8 to a solid town read.

Basically, if I had been shot then, we would have only had 1 safe "mislynch" left. So, I still could have (and would have) shot all 5 people on my list of possible scum, and if I was right and all 4 scum were in that group, town still would have won. However, if I was wrong about one of the 3 people I thought was town (Xyl, Ort, or Nacho), then we could lose. (I was just using nacho as an example of a case where I might have been wrong because, like I said, I wasn't quite as sure about him at the time).

Please elaborate on your evolving read of Nachomamma8.

I still think Nacho is probably town. He got quiet for a little while there, but I like his recent posts, they make a lot of sense to me.

[Yosarian2]

It's especally funny for you to act like my post was "OMGUS", when I've been saying for DAYS now that the scum are (Howard, Mae, Sarag, and Almaster). How can my post be OMGUS when I have been attacking you and your three scumbuddies for days before you ever attacked me?

Yos, while you may be a great player, I'm not sold that you could get all four scum right (unless they were listed in your role PM.) Which are you more likely to be wrong about - Howard or Mae - and whom would you replace that person with?

Well, I'm something like 95% I ever am in a mafia game convinced that Xyl is town. Nacho also looks pretty town to me.

(shrug) If I'm wrong about anyone, I could be wrong about Mae being scum. Just a few days ago a game ended and it turned where I was sure she was scum and I turned out to be wrong, so I'm apparently not that good at reading her.

Not sure who else is likely to be scum, though; like I said, from the way Ort defended Howard and attacked you, and called me scum just because I thought you were town and Howard was scum, I have to consider the possibility he could be scum with Howard. I don't really think so, though; it probably has more to do with that dangerous overconfidence he tends to have as town that I mentioned earlier in the game. Honestly, if we shot Howard and Mae and one of them flipped town, I really am not sure what I would do next.

I'd really like to see some more aggression here, without it all being forced by me.

I think I've been agressive. By this point in the game, I'm starting of running out of unique ways to say how much Howard is scummy scum scum who needs to get shot and die ASAP.

[Yosarian2]

@Yosarian2: While I can follow most of your thought process, there still is to wiggle room for Nachomamma8 scum to be shot and you to avoid solid linkage.

That's not actually an argument against me, you know. DO you disagree with me on Nacho being probably town? Can you actually point to anything I've said that you think I would be more likely to say as scum then as town? Because it looks to me like you're trapped scum here, desperatly trying to get someone else shot.

You also never explained exactly why, when Ort expressed suspicion on me yesterday, you and Mae suddenly claimed to find me suspicious. I agree with Nacho, that really looks like scum opportunism on both of your parts.

[Yosarian2]

@Yosarian2: I could have easily just stayed with a top pick like Maemuki.

Considering that I think the most likely scum pair right now is you and Mae, that dosn't fill me with a lot of confidence, Howard.

My read on Nachomamma8 is slightly scummy. Remember that he replaced DraketheFake/rewq455 whom you had in your scum list for a while without much comment or interaction. When Nachomamma8 replaced into the game, you had an exchange with him for attacking Xylthixlm, but have since written him off as town. Translation: a good distancing move.

Oh, please. That's lame. Anytime anyone attacks anyone or defends anyone, or does any combination of the two, you can call it "defending a scum buddy" or "distancing from a scum buddy" or "bussing". It's especially lame, and smacks of desperation honestly, when you do that while not actually making a case for either person being scummy.

If you want to actually make a case based on that, you have to either explain how there was anything wrong with my early-game suspicion on Drake, or with my questioning of Nacho, or me changing my mind about him afterwards. Of course, I'm pretty sure you can't do that, since I think my thought process there would be clear to anyone reading my posts, but I'll be glad to answer any questions.

It all started to come together after my re-read. You completely ignored my Sarag reveal.

Your Sarag scumtell sounded fake to me. It really soudned like a streach, especally considering how certain you seemed to be based on that. Now, I've figured Sarag was scum since pretty early day 1, so I certanly wasn't going to defend him there, but I never bought your attack on him.

Of course, now that I know you were almost certainly scum with him, I know why your attack against him seemed off.

[Yosarian2]

Well, nothing's happened since the last time I posted, which is bad since that was Wednesday..

Since I'm probrably going to be shot today - I'm going to have to ask you something. Who is most likely HR's scumbuddy?

Like I just said, I still think HR's scumbuddy is most likely you, Mae.

[Yosarian2]

Lol, and I get prodded just as I'm mid-post, that's funny.

[Yosarian2]

@Yosarian2: If you "never bought" my Sarag scum tell because it "seemed off," why didn't you make a comment at the time? Why wait until now?

Well, I obviously wasn't going to defend someone I thought was likely scum, not even against an attack I didn't think was very strong.

[Yosarian2]

I can't defend myself from things that Slicey made, orto.

Oh hai DGB

Yos2, k. Why?

Biggest one is process of elimination at this point, like I've been saying.

I also think there are connections between you and Howard, such as the way that both of you in unison decided to attack me together once Ort said he suspected me yesterday. Besides that, I've been at least somewhat suspicious of you for most of the game; I didn't like the way you attacked Xyl for "leading the town", and then when I defended him, you attacked me for "answering a question that was not directed at me". I responded with this post:

None of that is a scumtell.

Why...did you just answer a question that was not directed to you?

Because Xyl was being attacked for an obviously bad reason by both you and Nacho, and I'm trying to figure out if that means you and Nacho didn't understand mafia theory, or if it has more to do with one or both of your alignments.

Now explain this to me. Why is "leading the town" a scumtell? And why, when I explain to you that it's not, was your only reaction to criticize me for "answering a question directed at someone else" rather then respond to what I actually said?

And you never answered my questions, even though I repeatedly asked you to do so.

You were also one of the people in favor of shooting HH on the day he was shot and flipped town; granted a lot of people were, but I'm not a fan of your posts on the subject in specific going into the lynch, which were stuff like:

Hi Hacker! Defending scum, aren't we?

Can we shoot this guy now?

17 - Suspects Sarag, HH, and HR. Gives NO reasons for any of them.

*whistles* More reasons to shoot HH!

So, yeah, I think the likely scumgroup here is you and Howard, Mae. I'd like to see Howard get shot today, because as I said I'm even more certain of him being scum, but you've generally acted in a scummier way then most of the people in that game.

[Yosarian2]

Alright, here to read. I understand that one of the players below is scum. I'll read each in iso.

Yosarian2
HowardRoark (Replaced Vaya on Day 1)
Maemuki (Replaced Slicey on Day 2)
ortolan
LlamaFluff (Replaced Xylthixlm on Day 6)

Actally, 2 scum; it said in the rules that we started with 4.

[Yosarian2]

Well, Vala was the first gunbarer, which means she was modconfirmed town from the very first post.

On the other hand, we all thought Bogre was scum. I know i did.

[Yosarian2]

Who should I kill?

Howard. For the love of all that is good and holy, shoot Howard. And then if you have just one bullet left in your gun after that, shoot Howard again, just to make absolutely sure.

I have no idea why Hacker didn't shoot Howard today; I really find the decision really frustrating, especially since he made it without letting us know that's the direction he was leaning in first.

[Yosarian2]

Who should I kill?

Howard. For the love of all that is good and holy, shoot Howard. And then if you have just one bullet left in your gun after that, shoot Howard again, just to make absolutely sure.

I have no idea why Hacker didn't shoot Howard today; I really find the decision really frustrating, especially since he made it without letting us know that's the direction he was leaning in first.

Seriously, you couldn't tell that was the way I was leaning? A lot of my questions revolved around nacho.

Eh, fair enough. If I were in your position, I would have made it more explicit at the end, in a "I'm about to shoot Nacho/DGB" kind of way, in order to get more useful reactions first if nothing else. But that's water under the bridge now, I guess.

[Yosarian2]

could Yos be scum with Mae?

No, Mr. Paranoia McParanoiad. That's stupid. The scum is either Howard and Mae, or possibly you and Howard. I got to say, the way you react whenever it looks like we're going to shoot Howard is starting to weird me out.

I've been saying since somewhere about day 3 that the scum are Howard, Mae, Sarag, and AlmasterGM. Assuming DGB flips town, then I now know for a fact that I was right about at least 3 out of 4 of them. And if you are town, then you also know that. And I argued against both the Hacker lynch and the Nacho/DGB lynch, while you argued in favor of both. I'm really curious to see how you're going to construe all of that into a case against me here.

Anyway, out of (Ort, Mae, Howard), two of you are scum. And based on the way you were defending Howard for no good reason, I'm pretty sure you're not scum with Mae; you're either town, or scum with Howard. Either way, Howard absolutely has to be scum.

Sadly, because people listened you you instead of me and therefore shot first Hacker and then Nacho/DGB, we're now in lynch or lose, so after DGB shoots Howard and he flip scum, she's going to have a hard choice to make between you and Mae. But first, Howard dies. No more *#&$ing around.

[Yosarian2]

...wow, ok, now that was a dumb simulpost.

[Yosarian2]

Anyway...

Ort is town now. Only way I could have seen him as scum was as Howard's buddy, and that's no longer possible.

I'd be surprised if Xyl was scum. Last scum's still either Howard or Mae, Howard being most likely.

[Yosarian2]

Howard.

If you want my case against him, you can look at pretty much any post I've made all game. For new stuff, look at this post:

@Yosarian2: I could have easily just stayed with a top pick like Maemuki. Instead, I went back and looked over the D3 and D4 events. It had nothing to do with ortolan. That review pointed me to you and Nachomamma8. My read on Nachomamma8 is slightly scummy

I thought it was odd he was defending himself by saying "But I didn't attack Mae when I had the chance" when at the time I was expecting him of being scum with Mae.

Now that I look at it now, the most likely explanation is that Howard knew Mae was town and Nacho was scum, and was trying to make sure he got credit for (mildly) attacking Nacho and for not attacking Mae.

That's just reason one million and one that he's scum, though.

[Yosarian2]

You see? Howard is scum. It couldn't be any more obvious.

Just shoot him and let's win this game.

[Yosarian2]

No messy responding to others' points. No grueling re-read. Perfection.

Yup. You being so incredibly obv scum saves me a lot of work.

[Yosarian2]

Hacker? If you're around, let's end this day, please.

[Yosarian2]

My apologies. My training week-end was more time consuming than expected.

shoot: Yosarian2

If I am wrong, good luck.

Yeah, right. I fell for that when your buddy DGB tried that, not going to fall for that again.

[Yosarian2]

weeeeeee. Thanks for modding.

I think the setup is rather town-biased myself.

Actually, I thought town was going to get crushed when Elmo told me about the setup, heh.

It was a fun game. It's apparently just a fact of nature that kingmaker games tend to be slower and lurkier then normal games; aside from that, everything went well.

[Yosarian2]

I'll have to admit that I was a little surprised by that ending. Although I had been suspicious of Howard earlier on, I had a real nagging feeling that he was likely town and the last scum was either Yos or even -gasp- Xyl/Llamafluff.

Yeah, you've got to watch out for "townie paranoia". That's when pro-town people start to suspect someone they've trusted for most of the game, for no good reason other then "wait...why was I trusting person X again?" Usually happens when a game drags on too long. It's really bad; that kind of paranoia costs towns a lot of games, especially when it's lynch or lose or when a vig gets paranoid.

I'm glad you made the right choice.

[Yosarian2]

Yeah, Bogre's missed shot was fairly lucky, I did intend for that to be a small negative for the town rather than just an incentive to shoot, but in retrospect I wish I'd done something different; it seems a silly way to influence a game. I should probably have just said I'll lock the game until I receive it.

Neah, "shoot before deadline or the gun-bearer dies" is fine; it's a good parallel with "lynch before deadline or the day ends with a no-lynch (and the scum get to kill a townie for free)" in a normal game. If the gun-bearer needs to be replaced, then perhaps delay the deadline, but short of that, the rule's fine.

Also, something else I noticed (I bet Yos will love this):

Vaya

,

Slicey

,

DraketheFake

&

Zakeri

have been prodded.

Vaya

,

DragonsofSummer

,

rite

,

DraketheFake

&

Bogre

have been prodded.

HowardRoark

replaces

Vaya

. Thanks!

DraketheFake

,

Sarag

&

Zakeri

have been prodded;

Slicey

&

rite

are V/LA.

Bogre

&

Vala Mal Doran

have been prodded.

HackerHuck

replaces

rite

. Thanks!

rewq455

replaces

DraketheFake

. Thanks!

DragonsofSummer

has been prodded.

Yosarian2

,

Sarag

&

Zakeri

have been prodded.

AlmasterGM

replaces

Zakeri

. Thanks!

ortolan

,

Slicey

&

Sarag

have been prodded.

Nachomamma8

replaces

rewq455

.

Maemuki

replaces

Slicey

. Thanks to both of you!

Prods

(22)
Scum are 4:8, so you would expect about 7 scum prods to 15 town prods. The final count is 11:11.

DraketheFake

: 3

Sarag

: 3

Zakeri

: 3

Bogre

: 2

DragonsofSummer

: 2

Slicey

: 2

Vaya

: 2

HackerHuck

: 1

ortolan

: 1

rite

: 1

Vala Mal Doran

: 1

Yosarian2

: 1

6 slots were replaced, 3:3 again. If you exclude Nacho's temp-replacement, then people flaking were 4 scum and 3 town.

I would imagine that this would work more accurately based on measurement relative to a moving average, since the activity of everyone dipped somewhat later on.

Awesome. Nuke all lurkers.

Yeah, I really think that HR survived for so long despite really scummy play because most of the gunbearers were just unwilling to shoot a lurker, even a scummy looking one, and I think that tendency to let lurkers live hurt us.

[Yosarian2]

As an aside, I'm finding that the site now seems to have more set deadlines than I recall and that players are usually waiting right up until deadline to make their lynch. I much prefer the "set a deadline when conversation isn't going anywhere" approach.

IMHO, the cause and effect went the other way. Everyone started waiting until deadline to do anything, so mods started having set deadlines so the game didn't drag so much.