Open 208 - Fire & Ice Mafia >Over!<

[RedCoyote]

No need to apologize, XScorp. Believe me, LoneWolf was the last player I thought to be fire scum. If anything I shouldn't have been so tunnelled on poor Scott.

I think Parama is right on the money.

I love Fishy but there's nothing I think I can say to him. His defense is that all of our attacks are aimed at his replacements, I think, but of course that's where we're going to focus. I can't really point to anything Fishy himself has done that had piqued my interest, because he's laid pretty low and played it like a slick player who is replacing into a game as scum would.

Okay, there's a little confirmation bias there, but still.

[Nikanor]

Vote Count 3.1

Fishythefish (2)

- RedCoyote, Parama

Mindgamer (1)

- XScorpion

RedCoyote (1)

- Fishythefish

Not Voting (2)

- Scott Brosius, Mindgamer

With six players alive, four votes are required to lynch.

Deadline falls on Tuesday May 4 at 5:38 UTC.

[Fishythefish]

I love Fishy but there's nothing I think I can say to him. His defense is that all of our attacks are aimed at his replacements, I think, but of course that's where we're going to focus. I can't really point to anything Fishy himself has done that had piqued my interest, because he's laid pretty low and played it like a slick player who is replacing into a game as scum would.

Okay, there's a little confirmation bias there, but still.

I QFT the last sentence of this.

My defence isn't that your attacks are aimed at my replacements - they're not. Correct me if I'm wrong, but

nothing

my slot has said has been held against it. It's all based of DLA's play and PoE. Which is obviously even more frustrating.

Anyway, that's enough of my defence. It's not going to go anywhere. I'm going to work out who the last scum is soon - I'm not at all convinced by Mindgamer.

[RedCoyote]

I thought I was the last scum.

[Fishythefish]

You're my current top candidate. But I need more reading time.

[RedCoyote]

I think I said something about Locke at one point, but I'd have to dig it up.

[Fishythefish]

RC’s play:
In his replacement post, he launches an attack on Deer, with DLA a second candidate. He commits, really, to supporting Deer/DLA and possibly ICE wagons above others. Let’s see if that fits with being icescum. The gamestate at the time was

Vote Count 1.18

Locke Lamora (2)

- Nachomamma8, XScorpion

DarkLightA (2)

- Scott Brosius, Deer

Mindgamer (1)

- danakillsu

XScorpion (1)

- ICEninja

ICEninja (1)

- Bio Hazard

danakillsu (1)

- DarkLightA

Deer (1)

- Locke Lamora

DTMaster (1)

- Mindgamer

Not Voting (1)

- DTMaster

With twelve players alive, seven votes are required to lynch.

Deadline falls on Thursday March 18 at 16:50 UTC.

(When you delete RC’s vote)
So. 5 days to go, no serious wagons. DLA had garnered a fair amount of suspicion. I think that RC’s post is credibly icescum, pushing the most plausible townie (Deer was obvscum) while leaving the bus open if he needs to.
Then what happens? RC gives little more on DLA, carries on pushing Deer. Then Deer claims, and at this point RC really steps things up on DLA. Which is understandable as town, but also fits with scum deciding that if he’s got to bus, he may as well bus like he means it. I’m certainly not saying that RC’s play on DLA amounts to a link , but it isn’t play you’d be amazed to see from scum. Be careful about ruling him out.
In RC’s general play, there’s little that makes me think he’s scum, and overall I’d say I have a gut town read on him – I keep seeing little things and thinking “yeah, I’d have said that”. He seems honest about his thought processes. 474 still niggles, and I’m not overly impressed by the fairly blatant confirmation bias on me along with admitting it, but reading him in isolation gives a slight townread. Also, the way he focussed on fire - and admitted he was one of two good fire candidates - sits badly with icescum. He seems a fairly poor candidate for scum.

Which obviously kind of sucks from the getting a not-me lynch point of view, but there we go. The last scum is not making this easy for us (it's really actually not me ), and I’d like to read everyone (other than Parama) really thoroughly. Next up is Mindgamer.

[Mindgamer]

Interesting. On Day 2 I was going to explain how TheLoneWolf was my biggest town read until real life interrupted me.

First, I don't understand Parama's reasoning here. If we learned anything from this flip, it's that we shouldn't rule anyone out based on previous attacks of the dead scum. Bio Hazard HAMMERED his buddy while he could've perfectly attacked DarkLightA instead. How come you still think players can be ruled out on the basis of a few silly votes?

XScorpion hasn't said anything about me all game along but now suddenly he claims I'm his #1 suspect. Huh? Let's see what he has to say.

Apologies to RedCoyote for thinking that he was fire. No hard feelings?
Well, I did get Wolf's alignment wrong, but at least I called him out as scum (hehe).

Although Fishy does seem like the obvious choice today, I'm looking at Mindgamer and I see some interesting things...
ISO 18:

The opposite of what you said? So it's coming from a scum perspective? Not true.

Lynch all liars.

Then yesterday Mindgamer calls Nacho town. Talk about a change in opinion.

This is obviously a joke from Mindgamer's side.

FoS: SaintKerrigan

Try to avoid jumping on EVERY joke you see, will you?

ISO 19:

I have a very strong belief a DarkLightA lynch will result in a town flip.

Talk about obvious buddying here.

Topped with Mindgamer's attacks on DTM on day 1, I think Mindgamer is more likely than Fishy to be scum.

Vote: Mindgamer

I won't vote for Fishy until I hear what he has to say about "the final scum."

The Lynch All Liars comment was aimed at DarkLightA. You called Nachomamma8 on LAL, I didn't. As he said, he just changed his read. You were actually the only one to call Nachomamma8 a flat out liar. Why do you think I would support your silly claim when I said I thought Nachommam8 was town?
Your 'change in opinion' is more applicable to you since you change me from 0 to top scum read. Hypocrycy much?

I called town on DarkLightA. I also called town on Nachomamma8. The one is 'obvious' buddying and the other isn't? Strange reasoning.

I attacked DTMaster on Day 1. So? Is it scummy to attack players? I usually attack players because that's, you know, part of scumhunting. If you had a problem with it, why didn't you object to it Day 1 but instead bring it up Day 3? I don't understand at all.

From my eyes every case on me would be shit of course but this case is really sucky. It feels a lot like OMGUS since I outted my suspicions on XScorpion. Oh btw, what happened to those other people with a scumread on XScorpion? Nachomma8 had XScorpion as top ice read and is dead now. TheLoneWolf, a player who was searching for ice scum and had a topread on XScorpion, is dead now as well. Just saying.

-----------

RedCoyote last ice scum? Possible, I'll have to read more. What I don't like is this 'RedCoyote can't be ice scum because he would never put himself as fire suspect together with Scott Brosius'. I think this is actually quite possible. Let's imagine RedCoyote is ice scum and he actually has a fire read on Scott Brosius. This read is just as genuine as if he would be town, and I can see him wanting to get rid of the last fire scum. If Scott Brosius would be lynched and flip fire, RedCoyote would be the big hero. If Scott doesn't get lynched however, Fire-Scott would not nightkill RedCoyote because RedCoyote claimed to give his life for the lynch of Scott Brosius.
I'm not saying this is what happened, I'm just showing that RedCoyotoe shouldn't be ruled out because of his Scott initiative.

----------

That's it for now, my time is up. But I would like to ask Parama to start scumhunting and stop clearing people based on votes and scumlists Day 1. Bio Hazard hammered his buddy, do you need any more proof that your strategy is invalid? Also, reasoning like '100% townwagon on Nachomamma8 is impossible!' is just wrong. Mafia games are not that simple.

Vote: XScorpion

[Parama]

Mindgamer, XScorpion is not Icescum because DLA launched a chainsaw on him in defense of Pwnman. It really is that simple, and you're overcomplicating things. At this stage in the game, associations are just as important, if not more so, as scummy behavior.

[Nikanor]

Vote Count 3.2

Fishythefish (2)

- RedCoyote, Parama

Mindgamer (1)

- XScorpion

RedCoyote (1)

- Fishythefish

XScorpion (1)

- Mindgamer

Not Voting (1)

- Scott Brosius

With six players alive, four votes are required to lynch.

Deadline falls on Tuesday May 4 at 5:38 UTC.

[XScorpion]

I didn't notice Mindgamer until recently because on day 1 Mindgamer seemed pretty town, but then after Darklight died night 1 Mindgamer suddenly became the #1 lurker, which prompted me to read him in ISO. I also find it highly suspicious that Mindgamer's first post today is an OMGUS vote in response to me calling him out. Keep in mind this is his first post in SEVEN DAYS.

As he said, he just changed his read. You were actually the only one to call Nachomamma8 a flat out liar.

No, DTM called him on it first. Nice try.

You didn't buddy Nacho because you made a grand total of seven posts on Day 2, and the only one that even mentioned Nacho was your last post before he died, simply saying that you think he's town.

This is the only time in the entire game where you say you think he's town

; on day 1, your only view of Nacho is:

Nachomamma8-Scott Brosius = 1 Mafia Scumteam... Cool

This looks to me like you just wanted to look good for town when he flipped.

[RedCoyote]

But I would like to ask Parama to start scumhunting and stop clearing people based on votes and scumlists Day 1. Bio Hazard hammered his buddy, do you need any more proof that your strategy is invalid? Also, reasoning like '100% townwagon on Nachomamma8 is impossible!' is just wrong. Mafia games are not that simple.

What about the numerous other connections Parama and I have found between Fishy and DLA? Just because BH flipped fire doesn't necessarily mean Fishy should be thrown out of contention; that's a fallacy. We should still look at this game through a lens of probability here. I would say XScorp is honestly the least probable ice scum candidate, unless you really pushed the idea that DLA was trying to do some major distancing.

[Fishythefish]

Ran out of time for this game today. I hope content will come soon, but I can't be sure of that.

[Nikanor]

Vote Count 3.3

Fishythefish (2)

- RedCoyote, Parama

Mindgamer (1)

- XScorpion

RedCoyote (1)

- Fishythefish

XScorpion (1)

- Mindgamer

Not Voting (1)

- Scott Brosius

With six players alive, four votes are required to lynch.

Deadline falls on Tuesday May 4 at 5:38 UTC.

[Scott Brosius]

That's it for now, my time is up. But I would like to ask Parama to start scumhunting and stop clearing people based on votes and scumlists Day 1. Bio Hazard hammered his buddy, do you need any more proof that your strategy is invalid? Also, reasoning like '100% townwagon on Nachomamma8 is impossible!' is just wrong. Mafia games are not that simple.

Vote: XScorpion

Just because someone did something out of the ordinary does not make his scumhunting invalid. I agree with Parama that you are making this more complex than it is.

[Parama]

Mindgamer, you realize you are my #2 lynch behind Fishy, right?

[RedCoyote]

At this point I don't have anything to add. I think Fishy is the major wagon, so the other wagons have the burden of stating a better case or dismantling the case built against Fishy.

[Mindgamer]

An offsite game just finished and as usual all my reads were wrong once again. Kowabunga.

If everyone is so sure Fishythefish is the remaining scum, it is probably true. The fact that I have a scumread on XScorpion makes him practically confirmed town since I'm always wrong, lol. My case was weak anyway.

Unvote

I'll do as you say. Although I think the analysis isn't 100% foulproof, it makes sense. All I know is my scumhunting abilites are not good enough to be trusted yet. I'll be going back to Newbie games after this game.

----------

Defending is still a thing I can do of course.

I didn't notice Mindgamer until recently because on day 1 Mindgamer seemed pretty town, but then after Darklight died night 1 Mindgamer suddenly became the #1 lurker, which prompted me to read him in ISO. I also find it highly suspicious that Mindgamer's first post today is an OMGUS vote in response to me calling him out. Keep in mind this is his first post in SEVEN DAYS.

Perhaps I didn't say it explicitly in this game, but real life punched me in the face so I had to replace out of half my games and post only occasonally in the games I continued in. I still post content.
As I said, I attacked you at the end of Day 2 and now you're attacking me. You're the one OMGUS'ing, not I.

As he said, he just changed his read. You were actually the only one to call Nachomamma8 a flat out liar.

No, DTM called him on it first. Nice try.

Whatever. Point is I didn't call him a liar so obviously LAL doesn't apply.

You didn't buddy Nacho because you made a grand total of seven posts on Day 2, and the only one that even mentioned Nacho was your last post before he died, simply saying that you think he's town.

This is the only time in the entire game where you say you think he's town

; on day 1, your only view of Nacho is:

Nachomamma8-Scott Brosius = 1 Mafia Scumteam... Cool

That was an ironic reply to Nachomamma8 who called me scum with Pwnman without giving reasoning. 'Mindgamer-pwnman = 1 Mafia Scumteam...'

Mindgamer, you realize you are my #2 lynch behind Fishy, right?

Yeah, so?

[XScorpion]

That was an ironic reply to Nachomamma8 who called me scum with Pwnman without giving reasoning. 'Mindgamer-pwnman = 1 Mafia Scumteam...'

So basically you didn't mention your opinion of Nacho on day 1 at all. Hmm.

Whatever. Point is I didn't call him a liar so obviously LAL doesn't apply.

Whether you called him a liar or not does not change the fact that he lied.

[Parama]

XScorpion, you're town, so can you please vote Fishy?
FOR ME PLEEEEEASE?

[Scott Brosius]

Vote: fishy

[XScorpion]

Fine w/e.

unvote
Vote: Fishy

This game better be over...

[Nikanor]

Day Three Final Vote Count

Fishythefish (4)

- RedCoyote, Parama, Scott Brosius, XScorpion

RedCoyote (1)

- Fishythefish

Not Voting (1)

- Mindgamer

With six players alive, four votes are required to lynch.

Deadline falls on Tuesday May 4 at 5:38 UTC.

--------------------

<Flavour to be provided when I am not horrendously lazy. Maybe tomorrow.>

Fishythefish

-

Townie

-

Lynched day three.

It is now night three. Deadline is Monday April 19 at 3:09 UTC.

[Nikanor]

<Still no flavour! Oh no. :(>

Parama

-

Town Doctor

-

Frozen night three.

--------------------

Vote Count 4.0

Not Voting (4)

- RedCoyote, XScorpion, Scott Brosius, Mindgamer

With four players alive, three votes are required to lynch.

Deadline falls on Monday May 10 at 00:10 UTC.

[Parama]

Blah. I feel so worthless.