Newbie Data

kunkstar7 · Post Post #0 (isolation #0) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 1:06 pm

Newbie Data!

Welcome to my total waste of time! After chronicling the lynches, setup type, winner, of every Newbie Game from 1 to 900, I have put together these pieces of information for use by whomever for whatever purpose it may serve. Like proving to new players that no lynch does not win games. So a small table of contents:

I. Overall Stats
II. F11 Setup
III. C9
IV. Pie E7
V. Original Newbie Setup
VI. Miscellaneous / Credits

Data that will be shown will include win percentages for Town and Mafia Factions, the percentages each setup has occurred(for F11 and C9 setups), Day 1 lynches and their effect on win percentages for each faction, and maybe other stuff I have forgotten. So hope you enjoy!

I. Overall Newbie Data

Total Games	Mafia Wins	Mafia Win %	Town Wins	Town Win %
867	543	62.63	324	37.37

Currently 48 abandoned* or non-standard** games have been recorded.

*Games that ended in a draw are considered abandoned.
**For the purpose of this project, non-standard games are games played with a setup that is not one of F11, C9 Variant, or the Original Newbie Setup.

Day One Lynch Data

D1 Lynch	Occurrences	Percentage	Mafia Wins	Town Wins	Mafia Win %	Town Win %
Vanilla Townie	549	64.59	381	168	69.4	30.6
Doctor	50	5.88	34	16	68	32
Cop	50	5.88	43	7	86	14
Goon	154	18.12	55	99	35.71	64.29
Roleblocker	29	3.41	6	23	20.69	79.31
No Lynch	18	2.12	15	3	83.33	16.67

II. F11 Setup

The F11 setup is the current game format used in Newbie games. Newbie Games are Semi-Open, wherein the actual game setup is randomly chosen from one of four possible setups as detailed below:

[A] 2 Mafia Goons, 1 Sane Cop, 6 Townies

2 Mafia Goons, 1 Sane Doctor, 6 Townies
[C] 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 Sane Cop, 1 Sane Doctor, 5 Townies
[D] 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 7 Townies

Overall Win Percentage/Record of F11 Setup

Games	Mafia Wins	Mafia Win %	Town Wins	Town Win %
321	199	61.99%	122	38.01%

Variant Win Percentages and Occurrence Rate

Variant*	Appearances	Mafia Wins	Town Wins	Mafia Win %	Town Win %	Occurrence %
A	82	53	29	64.63	35.37	25.55
B	82	50	32	60.98	39.02	25.55
C	85	47	38	55.29	44.71	26.48
D	72	49	23	68.06	31.94	22.43

*Corresponds to lettered list of setup variants above.

Day One Lynch Data

D1 Lynch	Occurrences	Percentage	Mafia Wins	Town Wins	Mafia Win %	Town Win %
Vanilla Townie	232	72.27	153	79	65.95	34.05
Doctor	10	3.12	7	3	70	30
Cop	13	4.05	12	1	92.31	7.69
Roleblocker	22	6.85	6	16	27.27	72.73
Goon	41	12.77	18	23	43.9	56.1
No Lynch	3	0.93	3	0	100	0

A. 2 Mafia Goons, 1 Sane Cop, 6 Townies

D1 Lynch	Occurrences	Percentage	Mafia Wins	Town Wins	Mafia Win %	Town Win %
Vanilla Townie	57	69.51	39	18	68.42	28.07
Doctor**	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cop	5	6.1	5	0	100	0
Roleblocker**	0	0	0	0	0	0
Goon	19	23.17	8	11	42.11	57.89
No Lynch	1	1.22	1	0	100	0

**Doesn't exist in specified variant.

B. 2 Mafia Goons, 1 Sane Doctor, 6 Townies

D1 Lynch	Occurrences	Percentage	Mafia Wins	Town Wins	Mafia Win %	Town Win %
Vanilla Townie	60	73.17	39	21	65	35
Doctor	4	4.88	3	1	75	25
Cop**	0	0	0	0	0	0
Roleblocker**	0	0	0	0	0	0
Goon	17	20.73	7	10	41.18	58.82
No Lynch	1	1.22	1	0	100	0

**Doesn't exist in specified variant.

C. 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 Sane Cop, 1 Sane Doctor, 5 Townies

D1 Lynch	Occurrences	Percentage	Mafia Wins	Town Wins	Mafia Win %	Town Win %
Vanilla Townie	58	68.24	33	25	56.9	43.1
Doctor	6	7.06	4	2	66.67	33.33
Cop	8	9.41	7	1	87.5	12.5
Roleblocker	10	11.76	2	8	20	80
Goon	3	3.53	1	2	33.33	66.67
No Lynch	0	0	0	0	0	0

D. 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 7 Townies

D1 Lynch	Occurrences	Percentage	Mafia Wins	Town Wins	Mafia Win %	Town Win %
Vanilla Townie	57	79.17	42	15	73.68	26.32
Doctor**	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cop**	0	0	0	0	0	0
Roleblocker	12	16.67	4	8	33.33	66.67
Goon	2	2.78	2	0	100	0
No Lynch	1	1.39	1	0	100	0

**Doesn't exist in specified variant.

kunkstar7 · Post Post #1 (isolation #1) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 1:07 pm

III. C9 Setup

The C9 setup is a previously used Newbie setup. C9 is a 7-player setup and like F11, is Semi-Open, and includes four variants:

[CA] 2 Mafia Goons, 1 Sane Cop, 4 Townies
[CB] 2 Mafia Goons, 1 Sane Doctor, 4 Townies
[CC] 2 Mafia Goons, 1 Sane Cop, 1 Sane Doctor, 3 Townies
[CD] 2 Mafia Goons, 5 Townies

Overall Win Percentage/Record of C9 Setup

Total Games	Mafia Wins	Town Wins	Mafia Win %	Town Win %
388	265	123	68.3	31.7

Variant Win Percentages and Occurrence Rate

Variant*	Appearances	Mafia Wins	Town Wins	Mafia Win %	Town Win %	Occurrence %
CA	114	82	32	71.93	28.07	29.38
CB	85	57	28	67.06	32.94	21.91
CC	124	75	49	60.48	39.52	31.96
CD	65	51	14	78.46	21.54	16.75

*Corresponds to lettered list of setup variants above.

Day One Lynch Data

D1 Lynch	Occurrences	Percentage	Mafia Wins	Town Wins	Mafia Win %	Town Win %
Vanilla Townie	242	62.37	184	58	76.03	23.97
Doctor	25	6.44	18	7	72	28
Cop	27	6.96	22	5	81.48	18.52
Goon	84	21.65	34	50	40.48	59.52
No Lynch	10	2.58	8	2	80	20

CA. 2 Mafia Goons, 1 Sane Cop, 4 Townies

D1 Lynch	Occurrences	Percentage	Mafia Wins	Town Wins	Mafia Win %	Town Win %
Vanilla Townie	72	63.16	56	16	77.78	22.22
Doctor**	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cop	11	9.65	10	1	90.91	9.09
Goon	27	23.68	13	14	48.15	51.85
No Lynch	4	3.51	3	1	75	25

CB. 2 Mafia Goons, 1 Sane Doctor, 4 Townies

D1 Lynch	Occurrences	Percentage	Mafia Wins	Town Wins	Mafia Win %	Town Win %
Vanilla Townie	50	58.82	37	13	74	26
Doctor	13	15.29	10	3	76.92	23.08
Cop**	0	0	0	0	0	0
Goon	19	22.35	8	11	42.11	57.89
No Lynch	3	3.53	2	1	66.67	33.33

CC. 2 Mafia Goons, 1 Sane Cop, 1 Sane Doctor, 3 Townies

D1 Lynch	Occurrences	Percentage	Mafia Wins	Town Wins	Mafia Win %	Town Win %
Vanilla Townie	73	58.87	47	26	64.38	35.62
Doctor	12	9.68	8	4	66.67	33.33
Cop	16	12.9	12	4	75	25
Goon	21	16.94	6	15	28.57	71.43
No Lynch	2	1.61	2	0	100	0

CD. 2 Mafia Goons, 5 Townies

D1 Lynch	Occurrences	Percentage	Mafia Wins	Town Wins	Mafia Win %	Town Win %
Vanilla Townie	47	72.31	44	3	93.62	6.38
Doctor**	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cop**	0	0	0	0	0	0
Goon	17	26.15	7	10	41.18	58.82
No Lynch	1	1.54	1	0	100	0

IV. Pie E7 Setup

Pie E7 is a 7 player setup designed to address the deficiencies in the C9 setup. The setup consists of:

[P] 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 Sane Cop, 1 Sane Doctor, 3 Townies

Overall Win Percentage/Record of Pie E7 Setup

Total Games	Mafia Wins	Town Wins	Mafia Win %	Town Win %
40	22	18	55	45

Day One Lynch Data

D1 Lynch	Occurrences	Percentage	Mafia Wins	Town Wins	Mafia Win %	Town Win %
Vanilla Townie	18	45	12	6	66.67	33.33
Doctor	5	12.5	3	2	60	40
Cop	3	7.5	3	0	100	0
Goon	6	15	3	3	50	50
Roleblocker	7	17.5	0	7	0	100
No Lynch	1	2.5	1	0	100	0

V. Original Newbie Setup

The original setup is a 7 player setup. The setup consists of:

[O] 2 Mafia Goons, 1 Sane Cop, 1 Sane Doctor, 3 Townies

Overall Win Percentage/Record of Original Newbie Setup

Total Games	Mafia Wins	Town Wins	Mafia Win %	Town Win %
101	47	54	46.53	53.47

Day One Lynch Data

D1 Lynch	Occurrences	Percentage	Mafia Wins	Town Wins	Mafia Win %	Town Win %
Vanilla Townie	57	56.44	32	25	56.14	43.86
Doctor	10	9.9	6	4	60	40
Cop	7	6.93	6	1	85.71	14.29
Goon	23	22.77	0	23	0	100
No Lynch	4	3.96	3	1	75	25

VI. Misc/Credits

First, I want to thank AGar for starting this project. The original can be found here.
My personal comments:
The system has changed quite a bit since the beginning. Mostly in regards to how its played and modding. In the first page of Newbie games, I think only one game broke more than 10 pages, whereas today 10 pages is considered normal...for just one day. Also games have progressed into a much more analytical game. Games are longer, people are more serious. It all depends on your perspective whether this is a positive or negative progression. The modding has come quite a way. There were several games that were abandoned due to the mod flaking out. The quality of moderators has most definitely improved.

Regarding the data, I don't ever want to hear someone argue for a no-lynch on day one in a newbie again

. With only a ~17% win rate, that's definitely not the way to go, among other reasons. Not surprisingly, whenever goons or a roleblocker were lynched day one, it slanted the win percentage to town. This is even more significant in the roleblocker situation. Its kind of crazy how poorly towns did when their cop was killed day one.

Here is the link to my spreadsheet. Unfortunately Google Docs totally messes with the formatting of rows/columns so not everything is as pretty as it is in the original. Yet everything is there, labelled nicely for easy understanding.

kunkstar7 · Post Post #7 (isolation #2) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 3:00 pm

For one it, along with day 2, are the only two days that occur consistently throughout every game. Secondly, I haven't had the chance to get around to much more than what I have posted, I only completed the recording yesterday. The next thing on my list is to see what the effects are of which day the first mafia is killed. Maybe a similar analysis of the Day One lynches should be done on Night One kills? If you have any other ideas just run them by me.

kunkstar7 · Post Post #26 (isolation #3) » Thu Apr 22, 2010 5:38 am

Mr. Flay wrote:
zoraster wrote:I imagine it'd be too burdensome to find out how often a cop, who survives to day 2, and has a guilty manages to get that guilty person lynched.
Without coming out as Cop? I expect the sample size is relatively small, but it'd be pretty awesome to see, I agree.

Hoopla: I hadn't considered that, mostly because I find Newbie Games to be pretty bad at applying site-meta. Not enough newbies know it, and few ICs really want to apply it with an iron fist (not sure about SEs). I'm happy to be wrong, and the sample size of games seems small enough to scan for trends (if kunkstar could link those 22, plus maybe the 7 Pie E7s).

Looking up the games now, are we looking across all the setups or any in specific? (I'm not sure where you got the 22 from).

kunkstar7 · Post Post #36 (isolation #4) » Thu Apr 22, 2010 10:33 am

Mr. Flay wrote:Hoopla: I hadn't considered that, mostly because I find Newbie Games to be pretty bad at applying site-meta. Not enough newbies know it, and few ICs really want to apply it with an iron fist (not sure about SEs). I'm happy to be wrong, and the sample size of games seems small enough to scan for trends (if kunkstar could link those 22, plus maybe the 7 Pie E7s).

In response to this, here's the games with the Day One RB lynches:

Pie E7

527 | 530
532 | 543
548 | 549
551

F11

594 | 596
613 | 638
661 | 682
703 | 743
750 | 758
760 | 795
798 | 805
823 | 838
845 | 852
888 | 904
908 | 920

Mr. Flay wrote:
zoraster wrote:I imagine it'd be too burdensome to find out how often a cop, who survives to day 2, and has a guilty manages to get that guilty person lynched.
Without coming out as Cop? I expect the sample size is relatively small, but it'd be pretty awesome to see, I agree..

In regards to this; I'm putting together the sample set of the games where a cop lives past N1. So far there's ~324 games(not including the original setup yet), so it'll be a bit of research to find the number you are looking for, as you have to read through the games to find where a cop has a guilty. Also you have to consider if they are claiming on Day Two or waiting till a later time to claim their results.