Newbie Data

[zoraster]

Wow. There's a pretty good chance that mods aren't doing their setups randomly in the current setup though it's not really not provable to a statistically significant level, but mods were terrible about it in C9.

[zoraster]

Sure. How many times did scum hit a Power Role (relative to the chance of a power role being in that game) would be an interesting statistic. I don't think it'll vary much from random chance, but I might be wrong.

I think you're wrong, mainly because I think IC scum are better than average at picking up scum tells and newbie vanilla are much worse than average at dropping vanilla tells.

Wow. There's a pretty good chance that mods aren't doing their setups randomly in the current setup though it's not really not provable to a statistically significant level, but mods were terrible about it in C9.

Not really. 82/82/85/72 is fairly balanced, and you would expect some random drift from 81/80/80/80. The C9 numbers are clearly out of whack, however.

I just did the numbers really quickly, and there's about a 15% chance that D would be 72 or fewer if random. So, eh. Not really conclusive or anything, but it's not nothing either. When paired with the already noted tendency that is nearly 100% certain in C9 for mods to avoid vanilla games, I think it's very likely it's going on in F11.

Why not just get the newbie list mod to do the selection? sign up for a newbie game and when he gives the go-ahead, he also tells the mod which setup to run.

I think I like Pie E7 though.

[zoraster]

seems a reasonable solution, mith.

[zoraster]

I imagine it'd be too burdensome to find out how often a cop, who survives to day 2, and has a guilty manages to get that guilty person lynched.

I say this because I think this number would be very useful.

[zoraster]

I imagine it'd be too burdensome to find out how often a cop, who survives to day 2, and has a guilty manages to get that guilty person lynched.

Without coming out as Cop? I expect the sample size is relatively small, but it'd be pretty awesome to see, I agree.

Hoopla: I hadn't considered that, mostly because I find Newbie Games to be pretty bad at applying site-meta. Not enough newbies know it, and few ICs really want to apply it with an iron fist (not sure about SEs). I'm happy to be wrong, and the sample size of games seems small enough to scan for trends (if kunkstar could link those 22).

no, not necessarily. They could come out as cop. It'd just have to be the full sample.

[zoraster]

also, one has to wonder whether it's really "fair" that 25% of people who end up with town will basically get screwed in comparison. it seems ideally that you'd have 4 possible setups that have about equal chance of a town win.

[zoraster]

and we actually don't have enough data to reject the null hypothesis of "Newbie towns win 30% of games after lynching the Cop D1".

Technically, we can reject the null hypothesis, no?

[zoraster]

*shrug* F11:C has the best tested value of any Newbie Setup we've run, 44% vs. 56%. And I still think (open) 2M7T is demoralizing and a good way to lose players/ICs. All kunkstar's data shows is that Town can manage not to do any worse than random in an environment where Mafia teams self-destruct on a fairly regular basis (most games, the IC is not going to be Mafia).

I'd be happy either eliminating F11:D or going to a straight F11:C (Pie E7++) setup.

Neto: I assume you're talking about in F11/Pie E7? It was pretty common in the original newbie setup.

I agree although I'd say again that I think the ideal setup would be one that chooses between three roughly equal setups.

Right now, I think the single-biggest variable in whether you win or not is which setup you get.

[zoraster]

I really don't see a particularly good reason to remove F11-D. If you take that out, then it only changes the overall Mafia winrate by about 1.5%.

It improves it by about 2% if we make the assumption that people are actually making their game selections randomly. But you assume the chance that there might not be a single town role does not otherwise affect the win rate of the other games on the list, and I think it probably would help town by being able to believe at least one role claim PLUS reducing the chance of scum fakeclaiming being unopposed.

[zoraster]

Well, part of being a good scum hunter is convincing the town you're right, presumably. But I'd be willing to buy that very few people are able to be more than marginally better than random over a long period of time. Isn't this something Adel feels strongly about?