Karma Mafia (Game Over!)

[Espeonage]

EBWOP major ninja'd

[farside22]

I think looking at the vote analysis that OJ posted I'm leaning either Esp/Sera as scum
Bobz or dybeck scum (maybe both)
I don't see CKD as scum. I get many a town vibe from his post of today.

*note to self read Esp and Sera in iso tomorrow*

[Amished]

@OJ: Oh yeah, that's right. Farside is confirmed town; good deal.

Sadface that ABR is townier than me, but whatever.

Sando was in the back of my mind D1; but I don't mention him. I dare you to find my position on a lot of players in this game regarding how scummy they are. I really only push at certain people so that everyone else isn't going in multiple directions; one of the things I learned from reading about ABR, actually.

I think since the mafia isn't named; I don't find a second *group* faction likely. If PZ vigged Pom (and missed? I thought if she hid in weak mode; she could still be targeted for a NK; for whomever brought that up) I wouldn't have thought that there's a vig in the game. I don't believe that there's two vigs in the game, so since there were two NK's on N2; there must be a second non-town killing role (i.e. an SK).

I don't know where their kills went on N1 or N3; but with a vig down on N1 and two deaths N2, they're out there somewhere.

[Ojanen]

Sorry I missed that post. I have a tendancy to continue with the same play style throughout games. Once I start a game I will for the most part play that game through with the same mind set. The longer I play with that playstyle the harder it is for me to change that. Usually the way that RVS pans out will shape the way I play the whole game.

Esp, esp, esp.
you had a relatively active RVS in this game. what kind of general playstyle are you referring to exactly for this game?

[Amished]

Oh, that was another thing I wanted to ask! Thanks farside <3

OJ: Other than not liking me; what other conclusions have you drawn from your analysis, if any?

[Espeonage]

A noobish one where I felt intimidated by the size and names in this game.

I was playing agaist the mod of my first game. Of course I was going to get stage fright.

[Albert B. Rampage]

My theory is that Papa Zito's weak mode vig would kill his target the night after instead of the same night. That explains the second kill on night 2.

[Amished]

Ah, that would explain it too, ABR. Anon did seem like a weird scum-kill

[dybeck]

My theory is that Papa Zito's weak mode vig would kill his target the night after instead of the same night. That explains the second kill on night 2.

That would be the last puzzle piece in my attempt to build a mental picture of this game setup. And a really good suggestion.

Who knows, if you can rustle up another post or two that actually HELP town rather than hinder it, I might even unvote you.

[Ojanen]

Except for the minor detail that Zito thought Anon was town.

OJ: Other than not liking me; what other conclusions have you drawn from your analysis, if any?

The mention of you must have really drawn your attention, because quite obviously the reason I posted pretty colours was because I looked at the Esp wagon and thought that I know that set of people from somewhere and didn't want him hammered.
to utterly contradict that, yeah, I think it's likely someone was bussing bv.
long-term group ckd, esp, sera. on and off abr.
unflipped people on final wagon after a vanilla claim from him (that claim ups chances of being bussed pre-claim) sera, esp, ckd, amished, nick.
Typically the sets of people have scum in predictable amounts but then I'm wrong on who exactly it is.

[Ojanen]

On the other hand Zito didn't think Prozac was town.
I've always had this thought about the Karma element that town using too much power could result in upping scumpower possibly even to extra kills. But who knows.

[Patrick]

Votecount

Albert B. Rampage (1) -- dybeck
Espeonage (4) -- Faraday, NickF227, Jahudo, farside22
Seraphim (4) -- boberz, Javert, Albert B. Rampage, Amished

Not voting: Ojanen, Seraphim, Espeonage, curiouskarmadog
13 alive, 7 to lynch.

Deadline: 26th of May

[Jahudo]

I can't see Seraphim being scum with BV, or Sera killing Richard last night. Day 1 he seemed to want to be off Richard and on BV before they really became competing wagons.

I'm not voting bv because I want answers from Richard first and unvoting him now will drop the pressure on him. I'm talking about in sort of a glorified FoS manner.

He was suspicious of both but gave Richard the benefit of the doubt and I don't see scum doing that more to a perceived VI than a scummy buddy.

Espeonage (6) --

Faraday, NickF227, Jahudo

,

farside22

, Seraphim,

Amished

I think Nick was a deciding factor in the momentum shift away from Richard. From someone who likes early bussing, he's either got me fooled or he wasn't bussing. Amished and I were early on the Sando wagon. I don't think Amished's unvote at the Sando claim counts against him. It seemed like an appropriate time to wait for a counter-claim.

The thing with Espy on the BV wagon was that he had no original reasoning and lurked through parts of day 1. He didn't mention Richard while the two wagons were starting to compete with each other, but I don't think he was around that much to have that opportunity. So we don't really know if he would have kept his vote at every interval, until it would've looked like a good time for scum to bus anyway.

[boberz]

Nico's claim, with his reference to CMAR's direction looks like it could be good actually, because it is the sort of thing you can tell he may have been itching to say for a while. Equally it could be that he is trying to deflect attention away from a fake claim bringing in something else to discuss at the same time. So I am null on that.

IN fact he has been talking as a poss vig for a while I can see him as a vig. An element of lurking and undermining people's argument without addressing the points made but not overall scummy I dont think.

It appears my gut was wrong. Unless my head is wrong.

I suppose part of what was ugging me was occasionally he seemed to accidentally hint about understanding the game more than us, but that could be true of a vig as well.

[boberz]

Sorry that went into the wrong game.

[Seraphim]

boberz...wrong game?

[Faraday]

lol.

sorry guys was busy with exams and only concentrating on my game near deadline.

Anyway gonna catch up and see if there's anything much I missed.

[boberz]

boberz...wrong game?

Yes I have two games.

[boberz]

I still think Sera is annoying, and I do not feel my point was adequately answered. I think with Nick earlier Sera was more interested in keeping a lynch viable rather than actually find scum this is a clear difference of POV from allignment.

[curiouskarmadog]

going to try to get to a reread today...specificly Sera's play Day 1.

[Faraday]

I don't see Sera as the most likeliest candidate for scum atm.

He's quite vehment and constant with his BV hate once he does jump on. I did think he was playing both sides of the fence with his 'I reaaaaaally wanna vote bv' early on in the game, but I'm not sure that's the type of thing he'd post if he was buddies with Bv, I know it's not something I'd ever do with a scumbuddy, that's for sure, so I think looking back it's more likely he did find them both genuinely scummy as opposed to making sure he could be seen to be suspicious of Bv.

I need to check his interaction with Sando to be sure tho.

I don't remember much about Nick off hand I need to re-read. Amished looks quite townie to me.

Espeonage is still the most likely to be scum.

[farside22]

Reading Sera in iso I had a few issue:

post 124 votes for richard for no reason
post 170 reads bv310 wishy washy post, responds but no fos for this behavoir
post 288 tries to keep the "pressure" on richard over bv
post 352 this 180 degree turn is brought to you by the letter S. Which stands for words like Scummy
post 356 this waffling is brought to you by the letter M for words like mafia partner
post 1375 why did you vote for Sando here?

Part of me thought for a moment he could be town. Had some good views but has really backed off of things since. I'm not sure if he is just absent minded on everything going on or if he's scum at this point.
I feel today mostly that he's play is really off compared to day 1 and 2.
Gut check is still out for debate.

[farside22]

After reading bv and sando in iso. I have come to the conclusion that Sera may be town (shocking right) and CKD is so town it hurts.

I don't like how Sando comes to bobz defense when I attacked him on his stance day 1 with bv.
Also Sando is buddy up to OJ so much it leans me to town area for OJ (yeah even more shocking)
Reading sando's case on dybeck felt weak. Almost felt like weak scum bussing but if he was going to buss why not attack bv.
I'm going to ponder this a bit as I read a few other suspects.

[Amished]

After reading bv and sando in iso. I have come to the conclusion that Sera may be town (shocking right) and CKD is so town it hurts.

I don't like how Sando comes to bobz defense

when I attacked him on his stance day 1 with bv.
Also Sando is buddy up to OJ so much it leans me to town area for OJ (yeah even more shocking)

Reading sando's case on dybeck felt weak.

Almost felt like weak scum bussing but if he was going to buss why not attack bv.
I'm going to ponder this a bit as I read a few other suspects.

(bolding what I wanted to point out)

I could buy bob-scum. Since the delayed kill being attributed to a weak vig (which makes perfect sense, not sure why I didn't think of it sooner); the scum group would be a bit bigger than I normally look at in a large (since there's so often two scumgroups). 20 people, I could see 5 or 6.. hold on (feel free to ignore my way of typically looking at a balancing act for games)

Assuming 5 scum:
15-5 D1
14-5 N1 mislynch
12-5 D2 (mafia NK and 1/2 of vig shots, assuming worst case vig scenario)
11-5 N2
9-5 D3 (nk, 2/2 vig shots)
8-5 N3 (mislynch)
7-5 D4 and mylo territory

6 scum:
14-6
13-6
11-6 D2
10-6
8-6 D3 mylo. This only gives 2 mislynches to a town; 6 seems too high in that perspective then.

Ok, now moving on, dealing with 5 scum: We have 3 left. Dybeck has always been there (<3 farside); the Sando thing (like I said, I don't look for connections; Javert has more experience there than me so I'd like him to weigh in on that interaction as well) would make sense (we've lynched goons, that could've weighed in on Sando's mind; bussing a goon rather than some sort of power role).

Going back to my first point, this recent conversation that I had with bob feels like conversations I have with Sotty-scum (from other games, drawing personal comparison). I always seem to question her about something that feels off and her explanations just make me forget about her; and this recently burnt me so it's fresh in my memory. I know it's hard to convince (and harder to put into words) but the initial form of what bob said just really felt off to me.

If we can go with those two as scum (still need to put together that dybeck case.. stupid summer); then only one of Espy and Sera *could* be scum. The initial counterwagon people that OJ brought up is enough (for me) to discount Espy as scum. If we can assume bob is scum; just from recent events I'd say that Sera is town..

Unvote

Farside: what did you see between 1596 and 1597 that changed your mind on Sera? This game is kinda running together for me and you're confirmed town.

Going through and crossing out my town reads/bob and dybeck: really only is left with NickF (who reads as newb-town yet) and ... Jahudo. Hmm.

I still feel the strongest about

Vote: dybeck

Another game just went to night so I should have enough time to put something together finally.

[farside22]

@Amish:
Sera really attacked bv hard core day 1. It's full of townie goodness if you read him in iso. I was mostly reading what was going on today and Sera has been really doing crap today as far as posting/commenting.
Now as I said I could read this as scum bussing. Bv votes Sera and tries to do some weak attacks back. It reads as scum flailing against a town.
It's more based on reading bv in iso then anything else.