Mini #1007 (Game Over)


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Post Post #4 (isolation #0) » Fri Jul 16, 2010 6:19 pm

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Hello, good luck everyone. May the best team win.
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Post Post #15 (isolation #1) » Sat Jul 17, 2010 2:07 pm

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Elleran wrote:@Hoopla: your avatar looks little painful..
So does your face.
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Post Post #18 (isolation #2) » Sun Jul 18, 2010 12:08 am

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Thanks Esp!

Claim:
Paranoid Gun Owner

Discuss.
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Post Post #20 (isolation #3) » Sun Jul 18, 2010 1:01 am

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Vel-Rahn Koon wrote:Why make the claim now? I think that's a waste of a potential Town NK. Best case scenario is that you're now guaranteed to be in LyLo with the last Mafia and an unconfirmed Townie who've cross-voted and you have to make the final decision.
Really, I had no choice. Just think if I left it, and was responsible for one or two town PR deaths? Of course, there is the chance of hitting scum if I can play well enough to attract the night kill. Knowing me, I'd be likelier to attract doctors and investigation roles if I didn't claim, though. Ever played with a PGO before, Vel? What are your current thoughts about how I should be treated?
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Post Post #22 (isolation #4) » Sun Jul 18, 2010 1:11 am

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AGar, what would you have done if Vel-Rahn Koon claimed PGO Day 1, instead of me? Would you still feel this way?
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Post Post #24 (isolation #5) » Sun Jul 18, 2010 1:34 am

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Can you explain what the scum motivation would be for me to fake-claim in this instance,
knowing
that you have witnessed me do this as a miller before? I'm well aware this will improve my chances of being lynched (even more so with your knowledge of my scum game), but the rewards of this claim certainly isn't worth that risk as scum. For me, the prevention of town PR's deathes takes precedence over my own survival, which was the catalyst for my decision to claim.
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Post Post #27 (isolation #6) » Sun Jul 18, 2010 2:18 am

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AGar wrote: Third, you may not have even connected me with this game and 909 until I brought it up. You have 10 other completed games in 2010 according to your wiki. Sure, if you're keen on your memory, you might remember every player who you played with in each specific game. But most people aren't.
AGar wrote: Conversely to your question - had I not brought it up, would you have honestly remembered that I was in the game where you fake-claimed a miller as scum?
Keen observation, but I can assure you I remember that game vividly. Perhaps this is because I usually only play one or two games at a time - there is nothing that gets lost in the mess. I'm sure I could cite 70% of a playerlist in any game I've surivived longer than a day in, because I know I always invest a lot of time and effort into games. I'd be disappointed if I lost such memories.

So, of course I know and remember. I even know
you
remember about that game as you were talking about elsewhere on site (here).

Preview Edit:
Vel, see the above point.
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Post Post #31 (isolation #7) » Sun Jul 18, 2010 2:44 am

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AGar wrote:But, again, nothing in that post shows that I read more than the OP, so how are you to know from that post alone that I know that you claimed miller falsely.
Eyes everywhere, my friend;
AGar wrote:
Amished wrote:Oh yeah. Stupid scum lynching Quag and ruining everything; he could've killed Hoopla miller's claim....
Lol I helped. He refused to read his role PM. It was a policy lynch. Cyberbob and I actually spearheaded that wagon and we were town lol.
Unless you're claiming to have posted this message without reading what Amished had to say. You know I fakeclaimed miller as scum that game, and I know you knew. I don't even know why you're trying to argue this.
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Post Post #32 (isolation #8) » Sun Jul 18, 2010 2:52 am

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Redtail; I acknowledge the point of possibly claiming later in the day, after we've had the RVS and some discussion. A small part of claiming early was to fast-forward straight to discussion, as there are
definitely
differing motives between town and scum in dealing with an early PGO claim. And isn't this the point of discussion, unearthing the differing motives?

I'll be happy to share my deductions once we have had a few more players post, but I can assure you I'm already nursing an ample resevoir of notes.
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Post Post #34 (isolation #9) » Sun Jul 18, 2010 3:13 am

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You (and Vel) both were the ones to bring up points that I might not have remember we were in the game together, or I may not have known I
knew
you would remember my miller claim. You were both using these points to discredit my claim, or suggest I didn't know if I would be pulled up on it.
AGar wrote: The scum motivation remains the same - attempt to avoid targeting by pro-town roles while trying to play the move off as pro-town. The question really lies in how much did you think about your potential gambit, and how much you thought about how each player would play into it.
Right here, you are the one to put importance on this avenue of discussion.

Again, the reason I claimed, was because the risks of killing town PR's were truly not worth the risk of staying quiet. I did this even knowing you would bring this up. And I think I have proved sufficiently that I knew you would bring this up. Are you in favour of policy lynching on Day 1?
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Post Post #59 (isolation #10) » Sun Jul 18, 2010 9:27 pm

Post by Hoopla »

I'm also in the Shotty is VI camp, I don't know exactly what to do with him, but he definitely needs to lift his game. Notably, over the last page or so, we're starting to have a real swing towards this player without the representation of votes for him. Gunning for VI-blood is usually a safe place for scum to reside their vote because it's something that cannot realistically be challenged. Something scum love. More over, it's easy to tell if a VI/lurker is scum just by the way the rest of the town deals it. It's early still, but I'm really pleased with the information we have generated. Hopefully the wagon on myself falls away soon though, because it is a real 1911 trigger job.

A couple of questions I need to ask;

Shotty;
did you genuinely vote randomly, coming into the game? I find it hard to believe of all people you somehow got lucky and voted the one player with a bandwagon on her. I think it's likelier that you're lying than this 1/11 chance happening.

AGar;
you seem to be finding it difficult to find any town motivation for my claim, jumping to hasty conclusions. Hypothetically speaking, how would you have played the PGO if you were dealt that hand?
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Post Post #71 (isolation #11) » Mon Jul 19, 2010 5:40 am

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Good and Honest wrote: Hoopla, I waited for each other player to post so you could get reactions to your claim. I hope you won't mind that I'll speak now.

In case you are wondering what Hoopla is doing, look at Mini 973 (including the post-game comments). Hoopla, well done for making that game so memorable! By the way, you'll notice that in my first game, which I linked to, yabbaguy and I commented on Mini 973 in the post-game comments!
Not at all. That was very astute play to leave it this long - you could have come swashbuckling in, linking this game before anyone took the bait, but you didn't. And you have timed your play perfectly.
I hereby unclaim PGO
.

For those perplexed by this tactic, let me reassure you it was a deliberate ploy to skip the RVS and extract information from the game early. I have loose philosophies revolving around scum needing to be unsettled to get genuine reactions, and I think early roleclaims are one way of doing this. The beauty of PGO claims are they have different effects on either alignment, causing it to be rich with juicy information. This role is extremely damaging to scum if the claim is widely believed (see the game G&H talks about), as it is essentially an innocent player scum can't remove. Because of this, scum and town have different motivations to dealing with the claim. Town players will be trying to gauge whether it is true or not, whilst scum have a vested interest in ensuring the player doesn't get thought of as town, and if possible, put some suspicion on them. They are two very different goals, and even if they are subconcious, many of these posts are dripping with clues, ripe for analysis.

I will be doing some follow-up posts shortly on what we have seen so far, but if anyone has any questions about this play, let them be spoken now.
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Post Post #74 (isolation #12) » Mon Jul 19, 2010 6:17 am

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Vel-Rahn Koon wrote:Hoopla: Why should this explanation be any more believable than what you came up with in regards to AGar's arguments against you?
I'm unclaiming PGO. I am not a PGO. I half-expected someone not to believe this was my intention afterward, so I was careful to leave a breadcrumb, showing it wasn't a real claim. Here;
Hoopla wrote:
Vel-Rahn Koon wrote:Why make the claim now? I think that's a waste of a potential Town NK. Best case scenario is that you're now guaranteed to be in LyLo with the last Mafia and an unconfirmed Townie who've cross-voted and you have to make the final decision.


Really, I had no choice.
J
ust think if I left it, and was responsible for one or two town PR deaths?
O
f course, there is the chance of hitting scum if I can play well enough to attract the night kill.
K
nowing me, I'd be likelier to attract doctors and investigation roles if I didn't claim, though.
E
ver played with a PGO before, Vel? What are your current thoughts about how I should be treated?
The first letter of each sentence (well, minus the first one). My reasons as previously stated were my intentions, and this breadcrumb at the time of my claim should show my mindset, and that it was deliberate.
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Post Post #77 (isolation #13) » Mon Jul 19, 2010 6:20 am

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redtail896 wrote:So, I have a really dumb question that immediately popped into my mind upon reading you previous post Hoopla. Why did you unclaim?
Because the gambit had run it's course. Everyone has commented, and we now have a series of reactions to sift through all addressing the claim. When you've got differing reactions to same event, it is very simple to draw comparisons, as the variables are the same for everyone. The one thing we're looking for is the differing motivations.
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Post Post #86 (isolation #14) » Mon Jul 19, 2010 9:04 am

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AGar is quite probably town. His fiery and definitive position on my claim certainly is not what I expect a typical scum mindset to be. He was quick to cite the game we were involved in together with my fakeclaim, and it's obvious this was a bias shaping his opinion on my claim. But when you look at the way he argues (especially early on page 2), you can definitely see a sense of paranoia, something he wouldn't be influenced by if he were scum. If he were scum, he would be exploiting my meta to slander my name (and in a sense, he
was
doing that), but this is a natural piece of information to debate with as both alignments. But I stress, the most important thing is the steadfast, definitive position he takes on my claim, which is a good indication of paranoia (a trait likelier to be town).

As scum, the instinctive way of playing is to keep options open, because boxing yourself into one mindset is a dangerous position to be in if it goes awry. You'll often see scum offer opinions on something with an air of flexibility, an air of wriggle room - some small, subtle spin on words or a less-than-whole commitment, so they can shift a different way on that view if necessary. The PGO is the perfect example of something that can be analysed for these tells. And the strongest tell I have unearthed is AGar's one-minded approach to my claim, which is in no way the way scum would deal with such an event. It is passionate and fiery, and reading his responses to my question about the town motivations, he doesn't give them due consideration, and though a mistake to make as townie, it's something scum would be careful to filter into an argument.

It's far likelier in my view, that scum have taken a mostly middling view of this event, and players like redtail, ConfidAnon and Elleran are those that tick that box mostly, for me. Almaster and Vel take neutral positions on the claim, but attack the meta arguments I debated with early on, and it feels strange how similar both their attacks were. Even though it is far too early to hunt scumpairs, I feel confident they aren't scum together, as it would be an odd scum play to espouse a shared view on something that has such a scope for varied opinions.

Though I will be accused of probabilistic reasoning, I think it is a reasonable guess to think I've one scum on my wagon, and it seems a tough pick to guess who, if any. The Shotty, late random vote on me was just bizarre, and reeks of VI, and usually I think I'm good at figuring out these characters, but I don't know. I think one of Vel/Almaster is likelier to be scum, and it's an avenue I want to pursue, because I've derived associative tells between them which gives more information if one flips scum.

I know this will be my first vote, so I can't criticise the way the game is going so far, but I think I must say it is about time everyone not voting to put one down. There have been enough significant events to hedge an opinion either way on someone. And most importantly, votes/wagons give vital information later in the game, so I urge all you non-voters to drop a vote in your next post.

Vote: Vel-Rahn Koon


I would love some support for this, by the way. I know my case makes logical jumps, but I actually feel good about this vote.
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Post Post #87 (isolation #15) » Mon Jul 19, 2010 9:07 am

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AGar wrote: Off of the top of my head, I pushed a policy lynch on Quagmire D1 for not reading his role PM in 909
As did all three of the scum. We were all on that wagon, because policy lynches are hilariously bad for towns, and such safe places for scum votes.
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Post Post #90 (isolation #16) » Mon Jul 19, 2010 9:18 am

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Elleran wrote:Hoopla, your tactic will undoubtedly attract townie power roles to you now that you unclaimed. I'm not so convinced your breadcrumb tactic. That could have been planned whether you were a town or scum.
Sounds like scum trying to shoo the PR's into the corner on dear old Hoopla, so it stays off him. The point of the claim was to generate information in the day, you know, the only thing most of us townies can actually control.

Elleran, drop a vote on someone. Who are you most suspicious of?
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Post Post #91 (isolation #17) » Mon Jul 19, 2010 9:21 am

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AGar wrote:Hoopla, I don't see the similarities in Vel's and Almaster's arguments. Vel attacked you for the holes he found in the logic of your defense against the meta argument, but Almaster basically latched on to my meta argument and ran with that.
My point, I suppose I didn't eloquently sum up, was that they both had neutral reactions to the claim, but still found additional reasons to further the wagon. You're right though, they were different enough to warrant a proper distinction.
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Post Post #102 (isolation #18) » Tue Jul 20, 2010 12:03 am

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Elleran wrote: First, your explanation sounds like it exempts AGar from your suspicions. Because you and AGar have played a game (or more) together before, you guys can easily read each other's meta and understand each other's strategy without direct PM or communication.
It doesn't explicitely exempt AGar from my suspicions, but he is a town read at the moment, and I have no interest in following it up now. The point of this game is reading people and try to figure out their alignment, and though I don't understand his 'meta and strategy' well, it is a general enough tell to clear him today. As we receive further information in the game, ie; card flips, more bandwagons for vote analysis and role information, this of course is subject to change. Why exactly are you complaining about my claim of figuring out AGar's alignment? If you want to challenge my declaration, go ahead.

The rest of your post is flimsy, and Kid Know Nothing does a good job of summarising my theory in a simpler way. This following quote is particularly daft, though;
Elleran wrote:Second, I support lynching liars. I cannot disagree on your point that your claim/unclaim has brought many valuable discussion into place. However, I do not want to risk having a suspicious character in any LyLo situation. I understand this is a far-in-the-future argument, but lynching early poses less risk than later.
Each individual player here will have varying opinions on who is suspicious, and if they can't get that person lynched, they are suffering the same risk as you point out - leaving a suspicious player alive in lylo. Your argument basically means this; you're suspicious, and I don't want to leave suspicious characters alive. Well, duh. :roll:

Explain why I am suspicious, rather than the risks, because I can safely apply that argument to anyone in the game. Also, I debate whether I was lying or not in the first place, as I breadcrumbed my motivations in my post. If I claimed it wasn't a real claim WITHOUT leaving crumbs, surely then I would be caught in a contradiction or lie, or making something up after it had happened. But I have proved what I was doing was a plan to draw information out, and the only qualm you can have with this, is if you think it was a negative influence on the game. And you yourself, in the very same paragraph stated it generated valuable discussion.

I'd likely be voting you now, but I want to hear from Vel first, before I consider shifting my vote.
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Post Post #109 (isolation #19) » Tue Jul 20, 2010 4:41 am

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Unvote, vote: Elleran
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Post Post #125 (isolation #20) » Tue Jul 20, 2010 10:14 pm

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Good and Honest wrote:Hoopla, did you actually know that I knew about Mini 973? If I hadn't mentioned it, would you have unclaimed and if so, when?
I did not know, though I would have unclaimed soon after. I was still waiting on the last players to post before that could happen. I actually thought someone else would have picked up on it a lot sooner than it did, but this was a good amount of time to leave it to get the game going.

I didn't mention it before, but redtail's contribution to Almaster wagon is convincing. I'm waiting on the final results of the newbie game he is in before I understand him a little better as a player, but I think he is town. I think AGar is town and I think G&H and Kid Know Nothing feel town too, though these are more gut based reads.

Scum:

Almaster/Vel
Elleran/ConfidAnon

Unsure:

Zach
Shotty
gonnano

Again, these are preliminary reads, but as far as D1 reads go, I feel pretty good about them. Of those in my scum category, I've paired those players together, because I don't think they're scum with each other. One or two of those names will be scum, though. Elleran's recent play is rather odd, and I don't like his idea to withhold information for an entire day - it reeks of scum trying to buy time with a (possibly non-existant) bargaining chip.
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Post Post #141 (isolation #21) » Wed Jul 21, 2010 9:10 pm

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Vel-Rahn Koon wrote:@Hoopla, please answer my points in 107. You've switched votes for no reason, but in your lastest post I'm still scummy enough to warrant a vote. I'd rather have Town lay out their arguments so that the rest of us can see what you're thinking, assuming you're Town. You can answer that as well while you're at it.
My wagon was AGar, You, Almaster and at one point Shotty. I've developed a town read on AGar, which leads me to believe that one of you three are scum. It seems like probabalistic reasoning, but I think I can justify it based on the opportunity my claim presented scum with. It was a simple place to stow away a vote, because there were multiple reasons to do it, with policy and my meta arguments being the main one. And if I know scum, they are generally likelier to seek safe votes early in the game than town, who are in the dark, and less concerned about the way they appear. Because you and Almaster voted me in a similar fashion, not for my claim, but for other actions, it feels like you were trying to further the wagon without being appearing to be in favour of policy. As for shotty, I have no idea what to think, but I am feeling town VI and want him to replace out if he isn't going to play the game properly.

I suppose it's mostly gut that separates you from Almaster, and I don't expect everyone else to read into this information the same way as I. But if one of you flipped scum, it would likely indicate the other as town I feel, as I don't think scumpartners would so blatantly follow another on to such a wagon. It doesn't prove anything if either of you flip town, because town/town is still a viable option.

I'm voting Elleran now because he is inidividually the scummiest player in the game now, and his weak backtracking and flipflopping seems awfully like scum realising he's in a corner that could get illuminated, and wants to shuffle away quietly. His thoughts on my argument with AGar are also bizarre and seem contrived, and like filler - extra things to fill a post, that look like something, but actually isn't. There's a lot of his play that feels like filler - non-commital, non-probing stuff to fill space. I'm hesitant to declare this as active lurking, because his play has been weird enough to be noticable, but his one commitment he made in this game (the vote on me), he withdrew in his next post after I attacked him. This is scum walking on eggshells, trying not to offend.
drmyshottyizsik wrote:Idk just bored and this game feels like its going no where.
Shotty, if you're bored, replace out. Because you're making the game less fun for everyone with this type of attitude and style of play.
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Post Post #142 (isolation #22) » Wed Jul 21, 2010 9:11 pm

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Also, more people need to be paying attention to Elleran. Have a look, you won't be disappointed.
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Post Post #146 (isolation #23) » Thu Jul 22, 2010 3:36 am

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gonnano wrote:not really... even though the scum know that we know that they know ... etc., they still couldn't risk keeping a doctor around for more than a Day or two.
They can if they have a roleblocker, which is likely.
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Post Post #154 (isolation #24) » Thu Jul 22, 2010 5:31 am

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drmyshottyizsik wrote:I feel the same G & H, its why I claimed..
Are you seriously claiming doctor?
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Post Post #156 (isolation #25) » Thu Jul 22, 2010 5:49 am

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If you turn out to be lying as town, I will rally to have you banned from the site. Just saying.

If you're just scum, I encourage the real doctor to counterclaim now, even though in other situations, it might be better to wait a little longer. I'd prefer to take the scum D1 lynch.

If you're really a doctor, then you played poorly, claiming for no reason. You'll either be killed (not a bad thing, I suppose) or roleblocked and left alive for wifom purposes. It's the latter that I am worried about.
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Post Post #159 (isolation #26) » Thu Jul 22, 2010 6:25 am

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Elleran wrote: @Hoopla: How has my playing been weird and noticeable yet no one except you has commented on it? Can you explain?
I want to answer this with; your buddies haven't decided to bus you yet. The next one or two or the wagon will get town credit in my eyes, so don't delay and leave the bus until late.

PREVIEW EDIT: Redtail, you're on fire with catching the inconsistancies. Nice spot on Elleran. That is classic scum talking because they need to, not because it's what they believe.
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Post Post #162 (isolation #27) » Thu Jul 22, 2010 7:19 am

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redtail896 wrote:Not so fast Hoopla; you get questions too.
Ooh, watch that powertrip. You'll undo all your good work.

I'll answer your questions together, because it covers the same material. I don't think OMGUS is a factor here - it rarely is anywhere in mafia outside of newbie games. His jump on and then off me was unusual, and could have been exacerbated by the pressure I exerted on him, but I don't think he was doing it just because I voted him. I think he thought the best way to approach me was to reattack me, though this mostly makes sense if he is scum. I don't understand his town motivation if there is one, but it is a major flipflop when he unvotes me and changes his policy on LAL.

I didn't catch your first inconsistancy you brought up on Elleran. You should be following up with a vote on Elleran, though. And if not, explain why Almaster is a better candidate.
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Post Post #165 (isolation #28) » Thu Jul 22, 2010 9:05 am

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redtail896 wrote: I'm waiting to hear Elleran's response before I decide where my vote should be. And I assume you're intentionally ignoring the third question. That's fair for now; you seem to like playing things close to the chest.
You're town, so it doesn't matter.
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Post Post #168 (isolation #29) » Thu Jul 22, 2010 3:57 pm

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Elleran wrote:
redtail896 wrote:@Elleran:Two questions. #1 (emphasis mine)
Elleran wrote:he early PGO claim seems odd. I've personally played with PGO before in real life games, and in most of those games, the PGO, even after a no-cc, early claim, ends up getting shot or killing a doctor or cop accidentally. The reason why PRs target the potential PGO is because Hoopla could be a VT (or even cop) just claiming PGO for safety.
In my past life games, I have learned that early claims of PGO is a pro-town move.
However, seeing AGar's argument that Hoopla has fake claimed before, I can't trust her so easily.
Can you explain the bolded sentence? Specifically, I'm interested in how it interacts with this sentence:
Elleran wrote:Like I've already mentioned, I've played many times in real life games where the early PGO claim has been used before. In almost all of them, the claimer turns out to be fake.
The first post was a typo that I didn't catch. The second quote you made is correct. If you reread the post where the first quote came from, you can see that the sentence with the typo is inconsistent with the rest of the paragraph.
Sorry, what bit is actually the typo? The bolded bit is meant to say pro-scum? I don't believe that. I think the version as it stands makes more sense, because your last sentence in the first post is justification that you can't trust me easily, which implies you would normally trust me - which makes your previous sentence look not like a typo at all.

Explain yourself better, because you look like you're just making it up.
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Post Post #170 (isolation #30) » Thu Jul 22, 2010 4:42 pm

Post by Hoopla »

Elleran wrote:Okay, I reread my post
again
and I guess I was distracted as I typed it. I don't know why I put the however there. Basically, the typo was 'pro-town' is supposed to be 'anti-town.' My 'hard to trust Hoopla' attitude is correct as written.

I'm not making anything up, Hoopla. Incredible or insignificant accidents as this can happen.
It makes it hard to prosecute anyone in this game if you can fall back on this defense safely.
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Post Post #171 (isolation #31) » Thu Jul 22, 2010 4:48 pm

Post by Hoopla »

Elleran, can you briefly summarise why you were lynched Day 1, as town in Newbie 957?
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Post Post #184 (isolation #32) » Fri Jul 23, 2010 9:53 pm

Post by Hoopla »

I think we need to work out this dilemma of what to do with Shotty. Firstly, I will ask Shotty, can you definitely confirm, that you're either a town doctor or scum? Because I have a good plan to sort this out, but I need to know you're not a complete idiot claiming doctor as a townie, or something else. Answer as soon as you can, please.
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Post Post #202 (isolation #33) » Sat Jul 24, 2010 9:25 am

Post by Hoopla »

drmyshottyizsik wrote:I'm sick and bored so I voted for the Mod,,,, but thats a nono. Also I am the Doctor
Guarentee me you're not a town player fakeclaiming doctor. Do it.
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Post Post #204 (isolation #34) » Sat Jul 24, 2010 9:48 am

Post by Hoopla »

drmyshottyizsik wrote:I
Claim: Doctor
I promise
Okay, that is good enough for me. Thanks Shotty. You still really need to try a bit harder to help out the town, but I have a good proposal I want to put forth to the town. Here it is;

A protection-role massclaim
.

Here is the deal. We're quite likely playing in a game with a 3-mafia scum team, and on the off chance there is only 2, we should really be planning for the likely event of there being 3. In this case, we will only have three mislynches (barring a successful vig kill or stopping a scum night kill). It is far too big of a risk to waste a lynch on Shotty, without being reasonably sure he is scum. Luckily, I have a way of figuring this out - have some data;

Last 50 completed Closed 12-player Mini Normals:

Games with protection role - 43
Games without protection role - 7

What counts as a protection role? Doctor, Weak Doctor, Jailkeeper, Bodyguard, Macho Doctor, CPR Doctor, X-Shot Doctors.
Importantly, there has only been one game with TWO protection roles in it
, and that had two Macho Doctors (doctors that can't be protected, which thwarts the breaking strategy of the doctors cross-protecting each other).

This is why a protection-role massclaim is beneficial. It is highly likely that there is only one protection role, and if everyone else claims 'not a protection role' or 'a protection role', we can figure out with relatively strong conviction if Shotty is lying or not. If nobody claims they are a protection role, then this makes Shotty very likely to be the actual doctor, and he will soak up the scum night kill/roleblock, which frees up other PR's and fixes the problem of the VI distracting the town.

If someone else claims a protection role, we should consider this a counterclaim, and lynch Shotty. If Shotty flips town, then we lynch the counterclaimer. Why? Because in 50 games, there has been only one game with two protection roles, and those two roles were not traditional doctors anyway. Scum already know if Shotty is truthful or not, so there is nothing at stake here for the town. We're not giving scum extra information in order to execute this play which gives us a very strong understanding of Shotty's likelihood of being truthful or not.

What does everyone think of this?
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Post Post #206 (isolation #35) » Sat Jul 24, 2010 9:55 am

Post by Hoopla »

drmyshottyizsik wrote:Sounds good to me. but maybe you should lynch the counter claimer first and if he's a doctor than lynch me.
Why would we lynch a counterclaimer? That goes to assume the counterclaimer is lying, but any potential fake-counterclaimer has no incentive to do so, if it guarentees their lynch today or tomorrow, rather than staying quiet and likely living longer.
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Post Post #209 (isolation #36) » Sat Jul 24, 2010 10:27 am

Post by Hoopla »

Vel-Rahn Koon wrote:meh. Sounds like PR fishing. If, statistically, we're dealing with only 1 protection role, why give the scum any more info?
Statistically it is HIGHLY likely the town has ONE protection role. The only way we give away information is if we catch Shotty fakeclaiming.

If Shotty is town, scum know our protection role is Shotty. The town doesn't know this currently.
If Shotty is scum, it is true we are possibly sacrificing our real protection role to 'confirm' Shotty as scum, but this puts us in no worse position than we are in now if Shotty
is
a doctor. Except we now have the bonus of having a scum caught Day 1.

The only way this backfires is if there is ZERO or TWO town protection roles. This only counts as rolefishing if Shotty's claim is false, Vel. And if the sacrifice of our protection role 'proves' Shotty as scum, I'd like to do it. Doctors are not game-breaking roles for town. A Day 1 scum lynch is much more preferable. And then conversely, if nobody counters Shotty's claim, this at least 'proves' he is town and gives the town the same information scum already has.
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Post Post #210 (isolation #37) » Sat Jul 24, 2010 10:34 am

Post by Hoopla »

gonnano wrote:I'm on board for the protection role massclaim, but I'm not sure if I would be willing to lynch shotty straight away in the event of a counter... I'll have to think about that some more. For example, why wouldn't the counter claim have already happened? If Shotty is scum, I'm sure the real protection role would have had no problem convincing everyone to vote for shotty a few pages back.
Maybe because they didn't think it was the right idea, and maybe because it wasn't a direct match too. A potential Jailkeeper or Bodyguard might be out there not counterclaiming because it wasn't
completely
contradictory. I'm here to squash this concept.

If someone countered right now, we must lynch Shotty, because there is such a low chance of there being TWO protection roles.

If nobody counters Shotty, it isn't as conclusive as the other possible result, but it is a strong chance he is town. I think this is the likely scenario in my eyes, and if this happens, we don't give the scum any information, as they already know who our protection role (Shotty) is.
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Post Post #211 (isolation #38) » Sat Jul 24, 2010 10:37 am

Post by Hoopla »

I'm not a protection role either.

Everyone else, protection role = Doctor, Weak Doctor, Macho Doctor, CPR Doctor, 1/2-Shot Doctor, Jailkeeper, Bodyguard or anything else with it's prime function being PREVENTING a kill.

If you are a protection role, do not claim the specific role.
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Post Post #219 (isolation #39) » Sat Jul 24, 2010 11:04 am

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gonnano wrote:oh, and Shotty would have picked up a couple of scumpoints just now if he had any room left.
It's important to remember that if nobody does counterclaim, it is quite likely he is town though, and should be treated as such. Such a public recognition of trust also forces scum into killing off our VI too, when the scum-strategy of letting him live for WIFOM and possible mislynch purposes could have been a very attractive option. We have now prevented this possibility by highlighting this either/or scenario with Shotty.
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Post Post #222 (isolation #40) » Sat Jul 24, 2010 11:49 am

Post by Hoopla »

Good and Honest wrote: Hoopla, you say it's likely that there is a "Mafia Roleblocker" in this game. I know you love statistics about the game of Mafia so are you basing this supposition on statistics (and if so, would you share them?) or do you have other reasons to think so?
Not as conclusive as the doctor statistics, and I must note, the last time I checked this piece of information, I only looked at 3:9 Closed set-ups. These are by far the most common set-ups in Little Italy, so they are still relevant, but remember this is only one segment of the pie;

Last 40 completed 3:9 Closed Mini Normal Set-ups:

With a Roleblocker - 24
Without a Roleblocker - 16





As for your concern about my idea, yes it requires trust in Shotty, which is why I followed up on this twice. You'll note every other fleeting moment of madness has been previously undone/changed/forgotten, so the recurring pattern makes me feel a little more secure. The way I see it is, IF Shotty is fakeclaiming as town, then this is already a very poisonous scenario for town that will fuck us over grandly (whichever way we play it - massclaim or not). We may as well take a risk (though it isn't as much a risk as you make out, I think), and opt for a play/scenario that gives us some reward if Shotty isn't being a total ball bag.
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Post Post #229 (isolation #41) » Sun Jul 25, 2010 5:53 am

Post by Hoopla »

AlmasterGM wrote: 1) This is the second time Hoopla has made up some "plan" that revolves around town PRs.
2) If shotty is scum, Hoopla's plan looks VERY scummy.
3) If shotty is town, Hoopla probably is too. I don't see why scum-Hoopla would dig up stats that others were unlikely to produce in order to halt a mislynch on a VI.
In response to 2) - Are you kidding me? Going by the statistics, there is an 86% chance there is EXACTLY ONE protection role in the game. If I am scum with Shotty, he must be fakeclaiming, which means if this plan gains traction, there is an 86% chance of him being counterclaimed and then lynched.



AGar wrote:
Let's say we're in 3:9, with no doc/protective role. It could happen.
dr is falseclaiming doctor as scum. One of his buddies, seeing this plan, decides "Hey, wait. I'll counter-claim the bastard." They take their chances
. We lynch either dr or the buddy, and the other remaining scum cruises on the "Well, I guess that proves that I'm the doc." Pulls the wool over the town's eyes and turns our own plan against us.

There are a thousand and one ways this can go wrong, and very few where it goes right, in my eyes. Also, are we just "agreeing" to go along with it and claiming or are we going to do a popcorn style claim?
*colour-coded for easy reference


14% chance going by statistics. If you want to say this is statistically insignificant, go ahead, and I will put together the last 150 games for you (for the likely a similar result). If you want to discredit my plan by an outside chance of it failing, then you're seriously wallowing in a damaging cognitive bias, because EVERYTHING we do in this game will incur some risk, and I would suggest there is far more risk in playing this game straight and hoping our AWESOME town-scumhunting skills prevail in lynching scum D1 and D2.


So, you think the scum would gamble on a 14% chance of there being ZERO protection roles in the game? If there a town protection role out there, there is a very real chance of there being THREE protection roles claimed, which gives us two scum. Good gambit there.
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Post Post #232 (isolation #42) » Sun Jul 25, 2010 6:02 am

Post by Hoopla »

Gonnano, help me convince these clowns that this plan is a solid idea. There seriously aren't any losses outside of the chance Shotty is fakeclaiming as town. And this is a loss either way if we go by the plan or not.

The 'Hoopla is fishing for PR's!!!!' cries are a joke. Our doctor is already outed. By protection role massclaiming, we at worst expose our real protection role, which nigh on guarentees a scum lynch Day 1. Even though it is an outed protection role for this 'guarenteed' scum lynch, we're in the EXACT same situation as we are now if Shotty is town. If nobody counterclaims, we have a very strong chance of Shotty being town, which means Shotty will likely soak up a nightkill/roleblock, unless scum are going to gamble, or if the 14% chance of Shotty being scum eventuates.
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Post Post #253 (isolation #43) » Sun Jul 25, 2010 4:42 pm

Post by Hoopla »

AGar wrote:Is it V/LA with limited access or V/LA with no posting? Just curious, honestly.

Alright, Hoopla, I'll bite. I admit my mistrust with the claim is simply that I don't see 100% benefit to mass-claims almost ever. I tend to lean pessimistic in regards to them.

I still want to know if we're just claiming out of the blue or if we want to do a popcorn style claim or something.
I'd prefer popcorn style. Want to follow along and tell us if you're a protective PR or not?
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Post Post #254 (isolation #44) » Sun Jul 25, 2010 4:45 pm

Post by Hoopla »

Also Elleran is at L-1. Nobody hammer until we finish this protection role massclaim. And possibly an Elleran claim, though I'd rather wait until the massclaim is over, because we might not need to out his role.

Unvote


Until we get this sorted.
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Post Post #257 (isolation #45) » Sun Jul 25, 2010 6:29 pm

Post by Hoopla »

AGar wrote:Ok. I don't think that's popcorn but alright.

I'm not a protective PR.
I meant from here on in. My claim was merely a formality to kickstart the process, and as an offering of good will, as the first positions in a massclaim are the worst for scum.
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Post Post #272 (isolation #46) » Mon Jul 26, 2010 9:08 am

Post by Hoopla »

Elleran wrote:My turn to claim! I'm not a protection role either.

Popcorn to Hoopla.
I've done it. Read the game and pick someone else.
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Post Post #298 (isolation #47) » Wed Jul 28, 2010 7:07 am

Post by Hoopla »

Elleran wrote: I have town reads from AGar as of now. I am and will be suspicious of Hoopla due to her early claim/unclaim. However, I am not sure enough to place a vote yet. And accusing me because I haven't voted seriously isn't a good accusation. Just because I have no vote on anyone doesn't mean that I'm automatically scum.
WE'RE 300 POSTS IN TO DAY 1. THERE IS ENOUGH INFORMATION TO FIND SOMEONE SCUMMY.

You're getting lynched so hard as soon as we finish this massclaim off.
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Post Post #304 (isolation #48) » Wed Jul 28, 2010 9:53 am

Post by Hoopla »

Yeah, I'm okay with that move Zach. We only have 3 days until deadline - so we need G&H to claim asap, so we can move on to Elleran.
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Post Post #313 (isolation #49) » Thu Jul 29, 2010 12:46 am

Post by Hoopla »

Good and Honest wrote:Are you all waiting for me? Although here it's a question of simply saying whether I'm a "Doctor" (or something similar) or not, I'm not going to participate. Sorry. I hope the fact that a single player doesn't participate won't cause too many problems.
You're joking, right? We have two days until deadline - massclaim means everyone. If you disagreed with the concept you should have spoke up before, because you're seriously fucking us over. I don't care one bit for your playstyle because the whole game of mafia revolves around lying, and trying to detect liars - it's like having a playstyle of not voting. Eliminating a necessary facet of your game doesn't make it a playstyle. Though, I don't understand your objection in the first place because this passage of play is beneficial for you to be truthful no matter what.

If you are scum, it's probably a stupid thing to fakeclaim a protection role right now, because that gets Shotty lynched, then you tomorrow, which isn't a good result for you. If you are town, being truthful about whether you are a protection role or not helps us too. I have no interest in reading the rest of your post and answering your questions. If you don't complete the massclaim, I will vote for you today and push for your lynch, so we find out your role and complete the massclaim that way. Drop the gimmick, it doesn't work.
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Post Post #315 (isolation #50) » Thu Jul 29, 2010 3:40 am

Post by Hoopla »

Esp, what happens at deadline if we don't reach a majority?
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Post Post #318 (isolation #51) » Thu Jul 29, 2010 4:47 am

Post by Hoopla »

Show of hands, who would lynch G&H if he doesn't complete the massclaim?
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Post Post #323 (isolation #52) » Thu Jul 29, 2010 7:13 am

Post by Hoopla »

gonnano wrote: I would strongly advise against lynching G&H today, though. I would much rather proceed with the Elleran lynch and discuss G&H more during Day 2.
Why?
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Post Post #328 (isolation #53) » Thu Jul 29, 2010 8:44 am

Post by Hoopla »

gonnano wrote:It's just that it's so late in the Day that I don't feel we've had a chance to discuss G&H's actions very much.
Lynching him finishes the massclaim. :wink:

If he flips non-protective role, Shotty is a town doctor, and scum have to either deal with him (roleblock or kill), or leave him alive (for whatever reason) and hope he doesn't make a save.

If G&H flips a protective role, Shotty is scum, and yay, we get a free scumlynch tomorrow.
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Post Post #359 (isolation #54) » Fri Jul 30, 2010 9:47 pm

Post by Hoopla »

18 hours left. I don't know what else we are going to accomplish today if I left it, so I'm going to hammer. Even though the massclaim wasn't completed, I'm comfortable enough to claim shotty as the doctor for now, unless G&H dies and we get a protective role flip - though I don't think that would happen.

Serious question for G&H - say you're a cop (or any other power role), does this mean you won't ever claim results on someone, because it could potentially break your scum game, because this is an action you couldn't really fabricate as scum?

Vote: Elleran
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Post Post #363 (isolation #55) » Tue Aug 03, 2010 1:51 am

Post by Hoopla »

Firstly, Shotty, who did you protect?
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Post Post #364 (isolation #56) » Tue Aug 03, 2010 1:52 am

Post by Hoopla »

Secondly, G&H, answer my question from yesterday please.
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Post Post #365 (isolation #57) » Tue Aug 03, 2010 2:00 am

Post by Hoopla »

Sorry for the triple post.

Vote: Zachrulez
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Post Post #368 (isolation #58) » Tue Aug 03, 2010 3:00 am

Post by Hoopla »

Top suspects at the moment, Vel?
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Post Post #371 (isolation #59) » Tue Aug 03, 2010 3:14 am

Post by Hoopla »

If G&H doesn't place a vote on someone in his first post, I'll probably push for his lynch. Seriously, how can you go an entire day without voting ANYONE? He gives inane commentry on dated events that aren't relevant - if anyone else gave such little content for D1, they'd be speedlynched D2, but we seem to be giving him a meta out, because he claims it to be a style. It isn't a style - he isn't contributing, and he is very hard to read without voting or giving direct, definitive statements.

He seriously needs to do something special in his next couple of posts.
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Post Post #384 (isolation #60) » Wed Aug 04, 2010 12:11 am

Post by Hoopla »

Vel, what is your opinion on bandwagon analysis and it's effectiveness? How do you view the make-up of the final Day 1 vote count and it's participants? Almaster was a competing wagon for quite a while during Day 1 - do you think that makes him more likely to be scum, as his wagon was in competition with Elleran, but lost?

Everyone else - this game is going far too slow for my liking. I'd really like everyone to pick up the pace and place a vote in their next post so I can analyse where everyone is currently standing (G&H especially). Deadlines are two weeks, so one post every two/three days isn't going to cut it.
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Post Post #391 (isolation #61) » Wed Aug 04, 2010 8:14 pm

Post by Hoopla »

I have a couple of declarative statements I'm going to make. Firstly, ONE of Almaster/Zachrulez is scum. It is very likely we are playing in a 3:9 set-up, and if so, it is even more likely there are either ONE or TWO scum on Elleran's lynch wagon. These conclusions are slightly dependent on each other, but I have a solid data and theories behind these assumptions that I am going to share now. Appologies for the self-indulgent rambling, but I feel it's important to understand my mindset when I try to explain my tells;


Scumhunting to any degree of accuracy is an elusive quality. If this doesn't gel with your perspective of scumhunting and mafia in general, the rest of my post will be hard to swallow, because it lives largely under the assumption that most of the behavioural tells you use are silly catchphrases, parroted when something even remotely applicable presents an opportunity to be labeled in such a manner. This might be a bleak outlook on a game we all spend a lot of our leisure time on, as it is truly hard to tell if you are improving and how accurate any tell you have used is. Running a race, playing chess or any other game gives you an opportunity to trace development, with time improvement, or improvement against the same opponents. But with mafia, you are thrown into a blender, shaken up into a random team that you don't know, with the game revolving around figuring out the teams. It is a chaotic mess, with hidden motives muddying the water, making it very hard to quantatively analyse how effective one of your tells is. In this sense, mafia largely lives in the realm of the subjective, with popular ideas and concepts latched on to depending on perceived accuracy. This is very easily prone to error, as one persons concept of a scumtell largely differs from mine or yours, and most importantly it is largely formulated from the 'this just feels right' school of thought, even if it is never acknowledged as gut and paraded as something more definitive.

The beauty of Mini Normal's is we have a large reservoir of previously run games operating under very similar variables, that we can actually track patterns amongst the chaos. In a sense, this is what our mind does even if it is purely subconcious and we don't acknowledge or understand it - we filter the noise, searching for patterns in behaviour that uncover motives and hopefully alignment. Spotting patterns in behaviour is really the only way we can do this. If I used a justification, painting someone as scum, but acknowledging no scum has ever done this before - it won't be a popular idea that the town will follow. The validity of a tell hangs on the necessity of it happening before.

So, if we have this reservoir of games just ripe with patterns to be detected and followed, why not use it more? These patterns provide deeper understanding of the actual odds of something being true - which without is largely guesswork and theory-based. Granted, there are definitely limits to what this data can do, because it naturally seeks to be objective in a game largely subjective. Bandwagon and vote analysis is it's strongest suit, as position on wagon, and make-up of the amount of scum on a wagon is objective and trackable. Let me share some of this with you;

Amount of scum on a 3:9 Mini Normal Day 1
Town
Lynch (43 games):

0 Scum - 1 (2.1%)
1 Scum - 13 (27.7%)
2 Scum - 18 (38.3%)
3 Scum - 15 (31.9%)


This statistic showcases how much influence scum have on Day 1 bandwagons. This is only for when a town player is lynched, of course, but it is very illuminating when you consider the
actual odds
of the amount of scum being on a D1 town wagon if it were random;

Actual odds
of scum on a 3:9 Mini Normal Day 1
Town
Lynch:

0 Scum - (2.4%)
1 Scum - (25.5%)
2 Scum - (50.9%)
3 Scum - (21.2%)


Note how often scum dogpile onto a town wagon with the whole team, yet see how much less likely it is if it's random. It's quite fascinating, and there are generally two patterns that you can look for when trying to analyse this trend. First, if there is little to no competition for this D1 wagon, it is likelier to be pushed by 2 or 3 scum, often on a player that is identified as weak, and has a habit of incriminating themself. The second way to pick three-scum scum on a D1 wagon, is the competing wagon turns out to be on scum. In these scenarios, scum have a vested interest in propelling a town wagon which spawns likelier chances of a scum dogpile on it.

Applying this data and theory to what our Day 1 has produced, it is quite clear that Almaster was the competing wagon for a lot of Day 1, and most importantly, later in the Day when it counts. This vote count is particularly insightful;

VOTECOUNT
(As of post 236)

3 -
Elleran
- Hoopla, gonnano, redtail896 (L-4)
3 -
AlmasterGM
- Agar, Vel-Rahn Koon, Zachrulez (L-5)
1 -
gonanno
- ConfidAnon (L-6)
1 -
Zachrulez
- AlmasterGM (L-6)

Not Voting - Good and Honest, Kid Know Nothing, Elleran, drmyshottyizsik


Look how delicately poised this race is. This is the exact point where Zach votes for Almaster to bring him level with Elleran. It is at this point the race could go either way, making the next few votes particularly crucial in the swaying the verdict.

9 posts later, Almaster joins Elleran's wagon tilting the count to 4-3. The something strange happens; AGar and Shotty jump on Elleran in consecutive posts to take it to 6-3. Normally this would ring scum-speedwagon alarm bells, but AGar is confirmed town and Shotty is very likely town. Almaster's self-preserving vote to put Elleran back in the lead is particularly weak, and the next page KKN and ConfidAnon both vote Almaster to bring him back into the equation;

VOTECOUNT


5 -
Elleran
- gonnano, redtail896, AlmasterGM, AGar, drmyshottyizsik (L-2)
4 -
AlmasterGM
- Vel-Rahn Koon, Zachrulez, Kid Know Nothing, ConfidAnon (L-3)

Not Voting - Good and Honest, Elleran, Hoopla


This is very significant if Almaster is scum, because it paints KKN and ConfidAnon is a very town light, as surely either of them being scum has no motivation to push Almaster's wagon at this point when a cheap Elleran lynch was readily available. Lets look at the final vote count now;

End of Day 1 Vote Count


7 -
Elleran
- gonnano, redtail896, AlmasterGM,
AGar, drmyshottyizsik
, Zachrulez,
Hoopla

2 -
AlmasterGM
- Kid Know Nothing, ConfidAnon (L-5)
1 -
Hoopla
-
Elleran
(L-6)

Not Voting - Good and Honest, Vel-Rahn Koon


Green equals town obviously. My name is green because this is true from my perspective. Filter it out if you disagree with it (pre-emptively answering this point before someone brings it up).


From my perspective, it is highly unlikely there are three scum on this Elleran wagon, mostly because three-scum D1 lynches often have scum sitting in the back-end positions, and usually only happens if the competing wagon is scum, or there is no competing wagon. I'm going to flesh this one out from the perspective of Almaster being scum and town, because his alignment is critical in this analysis.

If Almaster is
scum:
It means for KKN and ConfidAnon to be scum, they would have been willing to unnecessarily bus or risk bussing when a free Elleran lynch was on offer, which is a much more attractive option for them. But if Almaster is scum, I seriously do not see why Almaster's wagon would have competed so well, especially when the late push on Elleran was from two townies (one confirmed/one likely). Some might argue Zach could be this late scum, but you'll note he also voted Almaster to take it to 3-3, which is also unnecessary. If Almaster is scum, we have just gone a long way to winning this game, because a lot of people have proven to be unlikely to be scum with him.

If Almaster is
town:
It brings ConfidAnon/KKN/Zach back into the equation to be scum, which is a much more believable scenario in my opinion. It also changes the vote-count to this;

End of Day 1 Vote Count


7 -
Elleran
- gonnano, redtail896,
AlmasterGM
,
AGar, drmyshottyizsik
, Zachrulez,
Hoopla

2 -
AlmasterGM
- Kid Know Nothing, ConfidAnon (L-5)
1 -
Hoopla
-
Elleran
(L-6)

Not Voting - Good and Honest, Vel-Rahn Koon


Which makes the one/two scum on the wagon theory fit in a little bit better and also incriminates Zach (and I suppose me) at the back of the pack there. Though, in my defense, I was on a lot earlier and unvoted which sacrifices my true position/influence in the wagon. It is hard to see three scum on this wagon regardless of Almaster's alignment, though. Which means if there is scum off the wagon, eliminating ConfidAnon/KKN from that already small pool is very difficult to do. This makes me believe Almaster is town. It makes far more sense, as him being scum makes it very odd play by any KKN/CA/Zach scum, and all three of them being town is hard to swallow.

TL;DR? Conclusions;


- ONE or TWO scum on Elleran's lynch wagon.
- Almaster is likely town.
- If Almaster is scum, Zach/KKN/CA are likely town.
- Zach is likely scum if Almaster is town.
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Post Post #392 (isolation #62) » Wed Aug 04, 2010 8:16 pm

Post by Hoopla »

KKN, what do you make of this Zach wagon? Good idea, or no?
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Post Post #394 (isolation #63) » Thu Aug 05, 2010 1:37 am

Post by Hoopla »

Good and Honest wrote: Hoopla's latest statistics post is very interesting to read but, in the end, such analyses just show what may be more or less likely - as proven by the conclusions at the end. And more likely doesn't necessarily equate true. However, that post did bring my attention to a couple of things.
There is almost nothing in this game that can be universally true - even a cop guilty can be false through many different ways. The amount of times anything is 100% is a lot less than most people actually realise. This game is purely about probabilities and searching for things that improve those probabilities a bit more in your favour.

As for your playstyle, I'm going to come out and say it is greedy, self-indulgent and will inherently damage towns and you are absolutely oblivious to that, which makes it even more toxic. Just think, if the whole town played like you, or even just one or two players did, that is another two slots we can't get information from. Because you prefer giving commentary rather than opinions and almost never vote, there are very few ways to read you and more than one of you would be detrimental to the town, because we're basically playing with all these empty slots.

Take a game of Prisoner's Dilemma - where mutual altruism is the best result for all parties involved. You can occasionally defect and not be altruistic and gain an advantage at the expense of others. But it is mutually detrimental if all parties defect. But defecting requires players being altruistic in the first place, otherwise there are no players to defect from.

I deem your play a form of defection, as we are all putting ourselves out there to share our opinions of the game in an attempt to hunt and catch scum, and it is in this act of altruism,
we
play the game. It is this act of trying to lynch players we think are scum (or faking this if you're scum) that makes our motivations clearer, and makes ourselves readable. You are rejecting this concept, wanting to sit back and not vote or not claim or not tell us who your suspects are, which makes you nigh on impossible to read. And if the town was filled with more of you, that would be akin to mass-defection where
nobody
benefits, with everyone sitting around babbling inane bullshit that goes in circles.

Are you endorsing this playstyle if others were contemplating adopting it? Would you encourage them? Surely you must realise that any more of people like you in a game would not work. So, what gives you the right to leech off everyone in this game and play this way when it helps NO ONE?
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Post Post #395 (isolation #64) » Thu Aug 05, 2010 1:40 am

Post by Hoopla »

Another question for G&H: why should I answer any of your questions in the future? It's not like you're going to do anything with my answer.
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Post Post #399 (isolation #65) » Thu Aug 05, 2010 4:52 am

Post by Hoopla »

ConfidAnon wrote:Hoopla - Nice analysis . . . but all it led you to believe was that AlmasterGM is probably town? I suppose it will be useful on later days, but right now it kind of seems like information over analysis.
Almaster's alignment is absolutely crucial in the production of future bandwagon analysis. I've linked several players to him, and though I know my data is sound, the theorems I extrapolate from this data feel very solid too. There is no way there were three scum on that Day 1 wagon if Almaster is town, and that means we can effectively use the Day 1 lynch wagon as a divider for two pools. A pool for those
on
the wagon and a pool for those
off
the wagon, which makes process of elimination style cases increasingly more accurate if we can limit the possibilities.

I'm confident enough in my Almaster read, to work off that and deduce Zach being scum. I'm hoping this is the lynch today, because I think we have enough information to break down the game if we can just get one scum down. For the record, I'll pick the scumteam here and now;

Zach, KKN, Vel
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Post Post #401 (isolation #66) » Thu Aug 05, 2010 5:36 am

Post by Hoopla »

He could be scum, sure. But I think he would have played up to this gimmick regardless of alignment - I hope for his sake he is an alt just experimenting with playstyles rather than a deluded newbie thinking this will actually work, but I digress.

It reminds me of another one-hit-wonder, Harumafuji. I played with him in Mini 836. He was posting nonsensicle jargon, and eventually I figured out he was a gimmick account filtering everything he said through TranslationParty before posting. TranslationParty is a utility that translates an english phrase or sentence back and forth from English to Japanese. After this was brought up, he promptly replaced out and wasn't seen again. It was strange.

/offtopic
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Post Post #403 (isolation #67) » Thu Aug 05, 2010 6:00 am

Post by Hoopla »

Where has gonnano gone? I hope he hasn't flaked, because when I read the thread last night, he seriously didn't go anywhere near my scumlist. More gonnano please, so I can keep him in my town list. We need the extra voice of reason...
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Post Post #405 (isolation #68) » Thu Aug 05, 2010 6:04 am

Post by Hoopla »

Oh okay. When is he back?
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Post Post #407 (isolation #69) » Fri Aug 06, 2010 7:29 pm

Post by Hoopla »

No posts in the last 24 hours, seriously? We're in 2 week deadlines.

If you guys don't want to play, just donate your voting powers to me and put them on Zach. It's a win/win.
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Post Post #410 (isolation #70) » Fri Aug 06, 2010 9:35 pm

Post by Hoopla »

Zachrulez wrote:Also I'm going to be V/LA the week of August 9th (Probably through Friday)
Will you be available to claim (if necessary) during this time?
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Post Post #420 (isolation #71) » Sun Aug 08, 2010 12:36 am

Post by Hoopla »

Good and Honest wrote:Because, as I have said in my other games on this forum, the beauty of any game is that it can be played in so many different ways. What matters is to play in a way which you enjoy. That's what I'm doing. If I'm not allowed to play in this way, I just won't play. No, I won't encourage other players to adopt my playstyle - I'll encourage them to play in a way they enjoy.
Absolutely, mafia is indeed a beautiful game. To use a parallel, soccer and chess are similar games that boast a rich tapestry of creative playstyles - this is much of the appeal. But your 'playstyle' is the equivalent of playing soccer with only your left foot, or playing chess without using your queen. Sacrificing a necessary facet of the game DOES NOT make it a playstyle. Lying and unearthing liars is what this game is. It is what it revolves around. What you don't realise is that by not lying, you cannot by nature, ever tell the truth, which runs contrary to your moniker-cum-mantra. You just end up sitting in the middle, not ever lying, not ever telling the truth. Just nothing.
Good and Honest wrote:I'll encourage them to play in a way they enjoy.
Again, no! Enjoying the game is essential, but if someone enjoys playing the game by only posting in Russian or lolcats, it shouldn't be encouraged. I'm going to borrow a quote from Goatrevolt here;

"I play mafia because I enjoy the challenge of the game. The game would cease to be challenging if the point wasn't to win or lose. I want to win because everybody involved in the game wanting to win is what keeps the game from being a pointless exercise."


G&H, you're not playing to win. Simple as that. And I probably am going to ignore you until the rest of us decide to get rid of you.
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Post Post #429 (isolation #72) » Sun Aug 08, 2010 8:19 pm

Post by Hoopla »

Kid Know Nothing wrote: Hoopla; Do you find G&H's play style scummy? What is your opinion of the refusal to claim? Do you intend to rely on statistics to formulate your opinions for the game?

Also, I don't think that G&H's intention is to win, in fact I would think that "...while in the other game I survived and I think I contributed to a certain extent to the town's win," is G&H taking pride in contributing to a winning game. Can you also explain what you meant by G&H being forced to sit in the middle of telling the truth and lying? I can understand if that were true for play-style breaking questions, but I fail to see how G&H couldn't tell the truth on other occasions. If G&H produces valid points to catch scum and actively scum hunts, why should you ignore G&H?
His playstyle isn't scummy because I believe he'd do it as either alignment. It is very anti-town and damaging, and I am not usually an advocate for policy lynches, but this is one of the few times where I feel it would be apt.

I'll explain it simply. In mafia, you need to lie if you get a mafia role PM. By claiming to always be honest and upholding that, that would make you scum in any game where you couldn't fully tell the truth. It's for this reason, G&H can't fully tell the truth without sacrificing his scum-game. That's why he doesn't answer questions with definitive meanings, doesn't vote, doesn't list his suspects and doesn't roleclaim - because he can't truthfully answer any of these questions as scum.
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Post Post #430 (isolation #73) » Sun Aug 08, 2010 8:22 pm

Post by Hoopla »

Kid Know Nothing wrote:Do you intend to rely on statistics to formulate your opinions for the game?
I play mafia in the exact same way as you or most people - it is very theory driven. I just use data to launch or pad those theories. I've found it helps explain why something is and isn't a tell, and it debunks a decent amount of common wisdom which only helps to make you more accurate.
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Post Post #433 (isolation #74) » Mon Aug 09, 2010 9:06 am

Post by Hoopla »

Redtail, I feel like there
has
to be scum on the Day 1 wagon, and although I'm favouring one over two, I feel like I have decent enough town reads on you and gonanno.

End of Day 1 Vote Count

7 -
Elleran
- gonnano, redtail896,
AlmasterGM
,
AGar, drmyshottyizsik
, Zachrulez,
Hoopla

2 -
AlmasterGM - Kid Know Nothing, ConfidAnon (L-5)
1 -
Hoopla
- Elleran (L-6)

Not Voting - Good and Honest, Vel-Rahn Koon


I feel like the only realistic candidates for scum on the wagon are Zach and Almaster and to a far lesser degree, you. My suspicion of Zach is very much a process of elimination, and the only point Almaster had against him was this;
AlmasterGM wrote:
Elleran wrote:Whoa, I didn't even realize that I had 3 votes already.
Ooooh, scared?

MAKE IT 4.

Unvote. Vote: Elleran.


Also,
FoS Zach
for tunneling on me like its his job.

Seriously, the only thing he has done the whole game is say, "lynch VI shotty" and "AGM is scum" while consistently trying to justify himself as little as humanly possible.
This was an awfully weak vote on Elleran. What worried me most was that he and Elleran were both on 3 votes at the time, and it was this vote that tilted the D1 wagon toward Elleran. As I said though, there were a lot more reasons to believe Almaster is town, and that is multiple people putting votes on him after Elleran became an easy D1 wagon to support.

It is quite clear to me that
one
of Almaster or Zach is scum. It is much likelier to be Zach, but Zach town would incriminate Almaster quite a bit. I'm pretty confident I have got it right first time with my reads. I'll eat my hat if zero or both of them are scum, though.
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Post Post #449 (isolation #75) » Wed Aug 11, 2010 1:07 am

Post by Hoopla »

Kid Know Nothing wrote: Firstly, how did you figure the actual odds?

Secondly, I'd like you to explain why Almaster is more likely town then not again. As I read your analysis, you consider the possibility of him being both town and scum but never really explain why he is more likely to be town.
The actual odds is the likelihood of how many scum would be on the wagon if it was random. This is combinatorics, and sadly beyond my mathematical level. Shanba was the one who worked out these odds for me about a month ago on AIM.

You'll note that random chances vary quite significantly from the dataset I have gathered. This serves to show that scum's influence in wagons is not arbitrary, and if you know the signs of what makes a 0/1 or 2/3 scum driven wagon, then it makes it easier to formulate process of elimination cases.

I've identified Elleran's wagon as one with minimal scum influence. You'll remember, Elleran was on three votes and three more consecutive votes balooned him to L-1. This would normally be the hallmark of scum influence, but Shotty and AGar were the 5th and 6th votes, and are either confirmed town or likely town. What makes me think Almaster is town, is because if he was scum, his wagon wouldn't have competed so well with Elleran's. The Elleran lynch was essentially free to jump on and with VI's like Shotty and G&H lingering around, it would be highly unnecessary and unproductive to bus Almaster on D1 when you have such options.

Could Almaster be scum, and the ones making his wagon compete be townies? Unlikely. Yourself, Zach and ConfidAnon all voted Almaster after Elleran became a viable lynch, which would mean if you're all town battling valiantly to keep Almaster competing, there should have been scum influence on the Elleran wagon, to stop this push, but there wasn't. If Almaster is scum, it's difficult to envisage any of you being scum, because it is an unnecessary play, and not to minimize any of your abilities, I don't think going for the sneaky distancing would be something high on your list, mostly because you couldn't expect anyone to see it in the first place. The thing is though, I don't think all three of you are town, which means Almaster being town instead is a much more intuitive, sensible and probable answer.
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Post Post #450 (isolation #76) » Wed Aug 11, 2010 1:19 am

Post by Hoopla »

redtail896 wrote:@Hoopla: Did your protective role statistics include mafia doctors at all? (I can't believe I didn't think of this question yesterday)
No redtail, only town protection roles. While we're on the topic, I'll answer this point;
Kid Know Nothing wrote:
Hoopla wrote:But if Almaster is scum, I seriously do not see why Almaster's wagon would have competed so well, especially when the late push on Elleran was from two townies (one confirmed/one likely)
AGar was not confirmed at the time and Shotty's claim does not make him any less suspect to be scum. I played in a game once where we assumed the claimed Doctor was real. Turns out, we were wrong. I don't trust the "likely town" labels anyone applies. To be honest, you could do without them. By looking for scummy actions, you are by extension weeding out the scum from the town. Giving someone a free pass by saying they are "likely town" only gives them reason to play up to you, as I suspect Shotty did with his "save". Your opinion on this?
Was that game a newbie game by any chance? The stats I listed don't lie, KKN;

Last 50 completed Closed 12-player Mini Normals:

Games with TWO protection roles - 1
Games with ONE protection role - 42
Games with ZERO protection role - 7


This is significant data and something we should heed. There are hundreds of 'what if' outside-chances in mafia and you will lose far more than you win if you take these outside chances instead of something bigger. Shotty being scum is an outside chance for me, and by lynching him we effectively give
someone else
a free-pass. There are only so many players we can lynch and we should use them on players who are likelier to be scum - that is obvious.

If your point is that I should always keep an open-mind and not just give away a free-pass, fair enough. But I probably wouldn't lynch Shotty without a confirmed guilty from a cop/tracker/gunsmith etc, so I'm not going to waste my time pressuring him or whatever. I'd rather use my energy on people who are less likely to be town. If you disagree with my assessment he is town, feel free to continue the debate - but I don't see how you can dispute those numbers besides one game of anecdotal evidence. This is a bigger picture.
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Post Post #451 (isolation #77) » Wed Aug 11, 2010 1:30 am

Post by Hoopla »

Kid Know Nothing wrote: I don't trust the "likely town" labels anyone applies. To be honest, you could do without them. By looking for scummy actions, you are by extension weeding out the scum from the town. Giving someone a free pass by saying they are "likely town" only gives them reason to play up to you, as I suspect Shotty did with his "save". Your opinion on this?
Kid Know Nothing wrote: Zach is more likely than not, scum.
Can you explain in a bit more detail why it is okay to label someone as likely scum (as you do), but it's not okay to classify someone as likely town? I don't understand the point about looking for scummy actions - because that seems like what everyone does. If so, why bother saying it? I don't know what you're appealing to there.

By identifying town players, you effectively minimise the pool scum can be in, which is a challenging and claustrophobic effect for scum if there is a core of town players they can't get a mislynch from. We spend so much time sifting through posts for scumtells, that a biproduct of this is scum working harder to conceal these tells. Town tells are easier to spot and you're a fool if you don't use process of elimination, as this is a brilliant way of cornering scum with less risk. Seriously, looking for town tells is a necessary facet of the game (sorry to use that line again :P).
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Post Post #454 (isolation #78) » Wed Aug 11, 2010 3:31 am

Post by Hoopla »

redtail896 wrote: For the record, I was bored this morning and ran the numbers: your probabilities are exactly right. The only note to add is that A. they assume that the lynchee cannot vote for himself and B. they assume that the lynchee is town. If you assume those things, that's the probability you get.
Yes, these numbers are just for town lynches Day 1 in a 3:9 closed Mini Normal. Very specific, but no variables means more accuracy. I have the data for how many scum are on scum D1 lynches if you want. :P
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Post Post #461 (isolation #79) » Wed Aug 11, 2010 11:07 am

Post by Hoopla »

Kid Know Nothing wrote: Hoopla; Do you consider it likely that there were two scum on Elleran's lynch? Seeing as the percentage of two scum being involved with a day one lynch of a townie is fifty percent, it'd be plausible. If that was so, do you think that someone could bus Almaster? It'd be a risky play, yes, but it's worth noting that the three votes you are interested in, mine included, held little in the way of reasoning when it came to voting Almaster. I'll agree that, from your perspective, at least one of us is scum.
The percentage is 50% only if the wagon was completely random. This was the data from 43 similar games;

Amount of scum on a 3:9 Mini Normal Day 1
Town
Lynch (43 games):

0 Scum - 1 (2.1%)
1 Scum - 13 (27.7%)
2 Scum - 18 (38.3%)
3 Scum - 15 (31.9%)


I've ruled out 3 scum, so it's extremely likely it is 1 or 2 scum. I consider two scum a good chance, but one scum seems slightly more likely. Again, my whole point is I don't see any motivation for scum to bus their buddy unnecessarily when Elleran (amongst others) are easy targets. And if that point is true, Almaster can only be scum if you three are town, which seems significantly less likely than at least one of you being scum.
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Post Post #472 (isolation #80) » Thu Aug 12, 2010 10:53 pm

Post by Hoopla »

Right, we have four days until deadline. The game is stalling. We have enough collected suspicion for Zach to claim and there is no point waiting until 24 hours until deadline for him to claim, as that gives us NO time to readjust or discuss his claim if necessary. Because we are not going anywhere, and I don't see any other viable wagons (other than G&H, but he won't claim anyway), I'm going to request him to claim.

ZACH: CLAIM IN YOUR NEXT POST


Seriously, we need to get on with. This game is stalling badly.
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Post Post #488 (isolation #81) » Sat Aug 14, 2010 11:59 am

Post by Hoopla »

WHERE'S ZACH?
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Post Post #492 (isolation #82) » Sun Aug 15, 2010 2:37 am

Post by Hoopla »

Good and Honest wrote: Hoopla, you state the game is "stalling". I think that (whether you like it or not) one of the reasons has been that people - including you - have been neglecting my questions/comments...
Hilarious coming from the person refusing to vote, claim or post suspicions.

*goes back to ignoring*
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Post Post #493 (isolation #83) » Sun Aug 15, 2010 2:41 am

Post by Hoopla »

THIS IS GETTING RIDICULOUS

We've got less than 48 hours until deadline AGAIN. We haven't got a claim from Zach, nor do we have any significant competing wagons in the event we need to change. Everyone get off your ass and state who you'd be willing to lynch today so we can compromise, because whatever we're doing now isn't working.

I'll vote:

Zach
Kid KnowNothing

Seriously, if this day ends in no-lynch, put me out of my misery and kill me tonight. I'm fed up with trying to run this game.
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Post Post #496 (isolation #84) » Sun Aug 15, 2010 3:48 am

Post by Hoopla »

Redtail, would you vote Zach or Kid Know Nothing? Your vote is being wasted on ConfidAnon. Gonanno is also wasting his vote at the moment. Put it on Zach or Kid Know Nothing please.

KKN: it isn't too late to get
some
town points for bussing Zach.
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Post Post #507 (isolation #85) » Mon Aug 16, 2010 7:21 am

Post by Hoopla »

I'm holding you to that, redtail.
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Post Post #524 (isolation #86) » Mon Aug 16, 2010 9:25 pm

Post by Hoopla »

I'll be pretty pissed off if there is a survivor in a mini normal game - that was a seriously unusual claim.
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Post Post #529 (isolation #87) » Sun Aug 22, 2010 3:44 am

Post by Hoopla »

Now
that's
how you deal with VI-town on Day 1. Once you realise they are likely town, you ignore them as a possible lynch candidate, forcing scum to take care of them at night. I was paranoid this town would eventually succumb to temptation and want to lynch him. I like where this game is going now that we've got a scumflip. I think we're just about able to crack this one wide open. Expect something from me shortly.
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Post Post #530 (isolation #88) » Sun Aug 22, 2010 6:05 am

Post by Hoopla »

Gunning for ConfidAnon instead of Zach yesterday, might end up being a costly decision for redtail. Something tells me this is where I should be looking today, though it certainly wasn't subtle in any way. My immediate plan today upon finding myself alive is to revert back to my wagon analysis, and I have some great new leads to follow with this handy boost in information. It really is amazing how much easier the game becomes once you've got a confirmed scum to work with. However, I highly suggest everyone else to reread the thread in light of this flip and try to work out where Zach's attacks seem genuine and where they seem fabricated, and conversely how other players treat him.

Claiming your previous suspects are scum
without
looking at what Zach did, and their attitude toward Zach will not fly with me. It is absolutely necessary to filter this new information into your play. So, before I unveil some more analysis, I want others to look at their suspects and try to figure out their ties with Zach. After doing this, if you cannot reasonably find any way to tie that player with Zach as scum, you must drop it and move on and find someone else that fits. Just please do that for me.

Otherwise, I'm working hard on finishing my new analysis of Day 1 and 2, and while I'm reluctant to give too much away just now, I think some of you might be able to catch where I'm going with it. Kid Know Nothing isn't as hot on my radar as yesterday, I'm happy to say. Everything will be revealed shortly though.
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Post Post #532 (isolation #89) » Sun Aug 22, 2010 8:50 am

Post by Hoopla »

gonnano wrote:First, I want to say that I think it is unlikely that Zach did any bussing. To bus effectively, you have to make a lot of accusations (mostly non-bussing) and I don't feel like Zach did enough of that for him to accuse a scumbuddy. Therefore I think that G&H is probably town, seeing as Zach was pushing for a G&H lynch pretty heavily. I think Almaster is probably town for reasons that have already been discussed.
This is a pretty solid point for G&H to be town - Zach was largely in favour of a G&H wagon on Day 2, and endorsed a lynch of G&H toward the end of Day 1 when a possible scramble was on the cards. The one thing that makes me pause, is the Zach wagon came out quite quickly on Day 2 - which if he thought he was likely to be lynched, it wouldn't be a bad play to bus your buddy that hard - making the wagon competing with you to be scum as well. I feel Zach wasn't invested in the game enough to pull such a canny maneuver, though, and his targeting of G&H on Day 2 looked more like a carry over from his suspicions from Day 1 than clever distancing.
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Post Post #536 (isolation #90) » Mon Aug 23, 2010 9:22 am

Post by Hoopla »

Hey Vel, would you be okay with a redtail lynch?
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Post Post #539 (isolation #91) » Mon Aug 23, 2010 1:22 pm

Post by Hoopla »

gonnano wrote:On a less stupid note, are there any statistics floating around for investigative roles in mini normals?
Why do you need to know this?
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Post Post #544 (isolation #92) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 6:23 am

Post by Hoopla »

gonnano wrote:Just thinking that mafia and vanilla plus one doctor isn't quite enough. It might help me with my reads, but mostly I'm just curious. Nothing worth gathering new data for, but if you've already got the information I would be interested in it.
It's not enough - but I'm not going to aide mafia in any way as to what would (and wouldn't) be a believavle claim before a massclaim happens (which should be either today or tomorrow).

WHERE'S REDTAIL? I NEED TO TALK WITH HIM.
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Post Post #546 (isolation #93) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 11:38 am

Post by Hoopla »

I saw you online today redtail. Working on that fakeclaim, or what?
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Post Post #548 (isolation #94) » Wed Aug 25, 2010 7:13 am

Post by Hoopla »

Redtail, when are you online next? I feel like talking to you live, in a conversation-style way one-on-one will be mutually beneficial for us. I'll be around on and off today, so when you get here, if you could hang around for a chat, that'd be great.
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Post Post #550 (isolation #95) » Wed Aug 25, 2010 8:26 am

Post by Hoopla »

That's about an hour and a half away, if my calculations are correct. I'll see you then!
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Post Post #552 (isolation #96) » Wed Aug 25, 2010 9:03 am

Post by Hoopla »

YAY. First question; top two suspects? And a follow-up question, would you be prepared to lynch outside of those two players?
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Post Post #554 (isolation #97) » Wed Aug 25, 2010 9:25 am

Post by Hoopla »

Hey, no need for a mini essay. I think you're stretching it with the AGM suspicion. Don't you think a more natural scum reaction would be to try and diffuse the Zach wagon by starting another?
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Post Post #556 (isolation #98) » Wed Aug 25, 2010 9:31 am

Post by Hoopla »

Just give us a few more minutes. I've just got a couple more things I need to get to, gonnano. Good point all the same, though.
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Post Post #558 (isolation #99) » Wed Aug 25, 2010 9:40 am

Post by Hoopla »

So, red. I think it's time for me to admit, I've got ulterior motives for wanting this one-on-one interview. Initially I spruiked the idea of wanting to engage in a conversation, just for the benefit of breaking the routine of endless paragraphs back and forth. But the real reason I've done this, is because I've got information against you, and I didn't want to give you too much time to tailor a response to it and think about all the consequences.

I'm a gunsmith. Now, tell me why you own a gun.
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Post Post #561 (isolation #100) » Wed Aug 25, 2010 9:42 am

Post by Hoopla »

Red, you've just thrown away any chance of a fakeclaim if you're scum. That's a shame.
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Post Post #562 (isolation #101) » Wed Aug 25, 2010 9:42 am

Post by Hoopla »

VOTE: redtail
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Post Post #564 (isolation #102) » Wed Aug 25, 2010 9:49 am

Post by Hoopla »

Where's gonnano, slap a vote down on red for me, please? I'm not letting scum squirm out of this one.
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Post Post #567 (isolation #103) » Wed Aug 25, 2010 9:51 am

Post by Hoopla »

You were my other target gonnano, on N1. You had no gun. I targetted redtail N2, and he had a gun.

The reason I targetted you two was so I could clean up the D1 lynchwagon on Eleran, so I knew how many scum were on it, which would enable me to look for specific tells if I knew how many scum were on it.
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Post Post #568 (isolation #104) » Wed Aug 25, 2010 9:53 am

Post by Hoopla »

That was the main reason I had you in my 'confirmed town' list from D2 onward, gonnano. And it was how I was able to predict Zach scum with slightly more accuracy, because I had more information about the D1 wagon than others.
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Post Post #570 (isolation #105) » Wed Aug 25, 2010 9:55 am

Post by Hoopla »

Do you know what a gunsmith does, red? And which roles would have guns?
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Post Post #573 (isolation #106) » Wed Aug 25, 2010 9:58 am

Post by Hoopla »

Cops have guns - jailkeepers do sometimes too.
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Post Post #575 (isolation #107) » Wed Aug 25, 2010 9:59 am

Post by Hoopla »

Where's gonnano? I don't like how he's slinked off.
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Post Post #577 (isolation #108) » Wed Aug 25, 2010 10:02 am

Post by Hoopla »

You don't normally have sanity guarentees for gunsmiths. I've never seen an insane gunsmith before, and I have comprehensive data on the entirity of Little Italy.
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Post Post #579 (isolation #109) » Wed Aug 25, 2010 10:10 am

Post by Hoopla »

Not a lot, to be honest. But the investigation was for the sake of improved bandwagon analysis - nothing personal. I was actually a little surprised you were scum and I half expected this to end up in me outing a cop.
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Post Post #582 (isolation #110) » Wed Aug 25, 2010 10:17 am

Post by Hoopla »

GOTCHA!

Gonnano, you've just fallen squarely for the old bait and switch. I switched the results. I HAVE A GUN RESULT ON YOU. The fact you've just agreed and said you have no gun means that you must be scum. Because if you were
really
a cop or a vig, you would have corrected my 'no gun' result on you, but because you haven't, it must mean you are scum.

It also means that redtail is town, because surely scum in that situation would claim cop/vig/something else,
knowing
that they have a gun, and this was their only chance at survival.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Gonnano
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Post Post #585 (isolation #111) » Wed Aug 25, 2010 10:25 am

Post by Hoopla »

gonnano wrote:
Hoopla wrote:It also means that redtail is town, because surely scum in that situation would claim cop/vig/something else, knowing that they have a gun, and this was their only chance at survival.
But you shouldn't need that, because you supposedly had a negative result from him.
I didn't investigate redtail at all. I was using this fakeclaim to get a result on him now, without actually using an official investigation on him.

I'm not revealing who my N1 target was yet, for the purpose of linking. I will reveal it before the day is over though.
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Post Post #587 (isolation #112) » Wed Aug 25, 2010 10:33 am

Post by Hoopla »

gonnano wrote:
Gonnano, you've just fallen squarely for the old bait and switch. I switched the results.
This says that you switched the results, referring to the only two investigations that had been mentioned, me and redtail.
Appologies - English isn't my first language. I meant that I switched the guilty verdict from you to redtail. I was just a little excited that it actually worked - that was a pretty frenetic post.

I claimed Guilty on redtail, innocent on you.
What I really have: guilty on you, innocent on someone else.
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Post Post #591 (isolation #113) » Wed Aug 25, 2010 10:57 am

Post by Hoopla »

Gonnano, claim your role.
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Post Post #593 (isolation #114) » Wed Aug 25, 2010 11:10 am

Post by Hoopla »

Yeah. Well, you do that. There's no way we're not lynching a claimed guilty. Besides, from the towns perspective they know that one of us is scum - if one of us is proved truthful, then the other follows. One of us
must
be lynched today.
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Post Post #596 (isolation #115) » Wed Aug 25, 2010 11:15 am

Post by Hoopla »

I'm claiming a guilty result on you.
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Post Post #597 (isolation #116) » Wed Aug 25, 2010 11:21 am

Post by Hoopla »

I want to massclaim today, by the way. And I want this to be the order;

Gonnano
Kid Know Nothing
Vel-Rahn Koon
ConfidAnon
AlmasterGM
redtail
Hoopla (already claimed, but will reveal last result)

I'm 80% sure I have enough information to break the game open today (even without G&H claiming).
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Post Post #599 (isolation #117) » Wed Aug 25, 2010 11:38 am

Post by Hoopla »

NO. It will break the game open for town. (Yes this is for real)

The thing that is pissing me off, is how slow this game is going. By the time everyone chimes in on whether massclaim is a good idea or not, we'll probably only have a week until deadline, and then if we do decide to massclaim, we'll probably take another 3 days to get through the list. It's kind of frustrating.

Massclaim will be beneficial if we claim in the right order. I strongly believe we can confirm 2/3 townies and maybe the other scum, which is enough to win the game here and now, even with my lynch included somewhere along the line. I've already given you 3/4 of what my role is - I'm justified in putting myself last.
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Post Post #600 (isolation #118) » Wed Aug 25, 2010 11:42 am

Post by Hoopla »

Scum only have one kill per night. If we confirm 2/3 players at this stage of the game, the benefit we get from narrowing down the pool now increases our chances of winning dramatically. They cannot kill every confirmed or prob-townie in one night. But the benefit of getting them all out in the open now, means we can lynch with more accuracy today. This is the right time.
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Post Post #602 (isolation #119) » Wed Aug 25, 2010 11:57 am

Post by Hoopla »

You're very perceptive, gonnano. I think this gambit has just about run it's course, though I'm disappointed nobody else was here to chime in on it.

I am not a gunsmith, that claim was a hoax. I'd like to thank redtail for making it obvious he is a townie. I'm 95% sure he is town, whilst I'm rather confident you're town as well gonnano (but for slightly different reasons). For those doubting my motives, I breadcrumbed my plan to fakeclaim Gunsmith earlier in the day;
Hoopla wrote:
Gun
ning for ConfidAnon instead of Zach yesterday, might end up being a costly decision for redtail.
S
omething tells me this is where I should be looking today, though it certainly wasn't subtle in any way.
M
y immediate plan today upon finding myself alive is to revert back to my wagon analysis, and I have some great new leads to follow with this handy boost in information.
It
really is amazing how much easier the game becomes once you've got a confirmed scum to work with.
H
owever, I highly suggest everyone else to reread the thread in light of this flip and try to work out where Zach's attacks seem genuine and where they seem fabricated, and conversely how other players treat him.

Claim
ing your previous suspects are scum
without
looking at what Zach did, and their attitude toward Zach will not fly with me.
I
t is absolutely necessary to filter this new information into your play.
S
o, before I unveil some more analysis, I want others to look at their suspects and try to figure out their ties with Zach.
A
fter doing this, if you cannot reasonably find any way to tie that player with Zach as scum, you must drop it and move on and find someone else that fits.
J
ust please do that for me.

O
therwise, I'm working hard on finishing my new analysis of Day 1 and 2, and while I'm reluctant to give too much away just now, I think some of you might be able to catch where I'm going with it.
K
id Know Nothing isn't as hot on my radar as yesterday, I'm happy to say.
E
verything will be revealed shortly though.
I think this was definitely worth it, as I've proved beyond doubt that redtail is town, as there is no way he would have reacted in that way as scum. He surely would have tried to fakeclaim a role with a gun, rather than try to figure out if I was insane and then explicitely claim he had no gun. Scum dislike locking down their options like that, and he would have assumed he was signing his death warrant by claiming my information was wrong. But because he had confirmed knowledge of having no gun, it must mean he is town.

I'll get to gonnano in a minute.
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Post Post #603 (isolation #120) » Wed Aug 25, 2010 11:59 am

Post by Hoopla »

Ideally, I was hoping to catch a scum between you, but proving you're both likely town is a decent enough result too, in the sense that it narrows down today's options.
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Post Post #604 (isolation #121) » Wed Aug 25, 2010 12:01 pm

Post by Hoopla »

I still am endorsing a massclaim today too, in the hope we can narrow it down further.
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Post Post #606 (isolation #122) » Wed Aug 25, 2010 12:06 pm

Post by Hoopla »

You're lucky you aren't being confirmed town based on believing my claim or not, and not finding my breadcrumb. You're town because of something else you said, that you almost certainly wouldn't if you were mafia.
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Post Post #607 (isolation #123) » Wed Aug 25, 2010 12:13 pm

Post by Hoopla »

UNVOTE:

...by the way.
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Post Post #613 (isolation #124) » Wed Aug 25, 2010 1:05 pm

Post by Hoopla »

redtail896 wrote:I challenge your assumptions. You haven't explained why you or AGM (or for that matter, me or Hoopla) should be considered town.

I'm happy with lynching you, then lynching Hoopla if you flip town.
Gonnano's town, though.
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Post Post #615 (isolation #125) » Wed Aug 25, 2010 1:12 pm

Post by Hoopla »

redtail896 wrote:Wait, what?
Read the thread.
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Post Post #617 (isolation #126) » Wed Aug 25, 2010 1:30 pm

Post by Hoopla »

redtail896 wrote:Why is gonnano town?
For similar reasons to why you're town. Though, I admit, there is another hidden reason why he is town. I can't explain it yet, without giving something away. Get a massclaim happening, and it'll all be out there. Sorry. I'm sure you'll agree his reaction aside from this was very pro-town.
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Post Post #619 (isolation #127) » Wed Aug 25, 2010 1:46 pm

Post by Hoopla »

redtail896 wrote:
Unvote


For the record, when I made my last 2 posts, I hadn't realized that you had unclaimed gunsmith. Sorry about being a bit slow here.
Yeah, I thought that's what happened.

We have a solid core of townies and likely townies, but I want massclaim so I can lock scum into a claim now. What massclaim does is create two pools - a VT pool and a PR pool. The PR pool is smaller and easier confirm or catch someone lying there. It's possible we can increase the core of townies even further, and possibly get some information on who in the VT pool is likelier to be scum. At this stage, we have such good information for process of elimination cases, that we don't need to rely on PR's any more, so we might as well claim them to lock the game down as much as we can now.
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Post Post #620 (isolation #128) » Wed Aug 25, 2010 1:47 pm

Post by Hoopla »

By not massclaiming now, all we do is run the risk of losing built-up information if scum hit a PR tonight. We need to cash it in now.
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Post Post #626 (isolation #129) » Thu Aug 26, 2010 12:24 pm

Post by Hoopla »

Vel, if you're going to play the apathy card, you can go first in the massclaim.
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Post Post #628 (isolation #130) » Thu Aug 26, 2010 12:40 pm

Post by Hoopla »

Because holding it a little bit longer is riskier than cashing it in now. If we mislynch today, we're in mylo/lylo tomorrow - are you really going to trust someone claiming a guilty on someone else then?
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Post Post #629 (isolation #131) » Thu Aug 26, 2010 1:14 pm

Post by Hoopla »

VOTE: ConfidAnon

Vel's reaction is slightly town. And redtail is town, and is the main supporter of this vote, so I'm not worried that this idea is being pushed by scum. Infact the attention CA's received in this game has been relatively small. My vote stays here until massclaim proves something else otherwise.
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Post Post #632 (isolation #132) » Thu Aug 26, 2010 1:28 pm

Post by Hoopla »

AlmasterGM wrote:Why wouldn't we just have somebody claim IF they have relevant information? Also, why would somebody surface with a guilty? Do you really think there's a cop AND a gunsmith?
Read the thread. I'm not a gunsmith.
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Post Post #635 (isolation #133) » Thu Aug 26, 2010 1:47 pm

Post by Hoopla »

gonnano wrote:oh, and the L-1 part needs to happen soon to leave time for the other part.
Better switch to CA quicksmart then, hadn't you?
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Post Post #637 (isolation #134) » Thu Aug 26, 2010 2:04 pm

Post by Hoopla »

gonnano wrote:I'm more in favor of lynching VRK today, considering that we would get more information from his flip. If I don't think I can get the support I need to make that happen, I will consider switching to the CA wagon.
CA turning up scum will pretty much confirm Almaster as town, though. I know I shouldn't, but I'm kind of swayed by VRK's AtE - infact, I'll be a little upset if he's scum just giving up like that. That post is the equivalent of a self-vote really, which is largely a town trait, no matter how dumb.

He needs to claim asap though, because we've already burned through enough time today.
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Post Post #647 (isolation #135) » Fri Aug 27, 2010 7:05 pm

Post by Hoopla »

AlmasterGM wrote:HUURRRR, there's so many gambits I lose track of what's actually going on.
That's a shame - because you can actually glean some solid information from it if you think about it logically. Unless redtail thought it was a gambit, which seems very unlikely from his responses of trying to determine my sanity and his adamance he doesn't have a gun - it is pretty obvious he is town. Scum in this scenario would be decidedly unsure, even if they were sensing a gambit, and I didn't actually have information on them - but the fact the information I claimed to have was accurate, it means scum can never know for sure, and would certainly not commit to one answer so decisively as redtail is. If he were scum, he virtually signs any hope of survival away UNLESS it was gambit - and even if redtail thinks I might of been lying about my results, he certainly wouldn't have known if I'd follow through on them.

Redtail is town. I have other reasons to believe gonnano is town, too, but this is dependent on what happens in the massclaim, so we need to get this done. If you don't want to think about the results of my gambit, and are palming it off as chaos for the sake of chaos, I can assure you you're wrong, and they were done for a reason. And I think the information (psuedo-confirming redtail as town) is a supreme benefit - but don't just dismiss it if you're too lazy to look at it or ask questions.

Also, since when have I been better as scum?
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Post Post #648 (isolation #136) » Fri Aug 27, 2010 7:06 pm

Post by Hoopla »

Guys, we have about 5 days until deadline - we need to get through this massclaim. Gonnano is next, then CA.
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Post Post #657 (isolation #137) » Sat Aug 28, 2010 9:22 am

Post by Hoopla »

AlmasterGM wrote:Hi new page. ConfidAnon can die.
drop a vote on him.
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Post Post #661 (isolation #138) » Sun Aug 29, 2010 8:52 am

Post by Hoopla »

Guys, we have like 4 or 5 days until the deadline hits us. We need to power through the rest of this massclaim ASAP, there aren't any other choices now that we've already started it. Gonnano and CA need to get on with it.
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Post Post #664 (isolation #139) » Sun Aug 29, 2010 9:40 am

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gonnano wrote:Can I get a reason why we're apparently going with the massclaim over my plan? I'm perfectly willing to accept a reasonable explanation of why it won't work and/or isn't the best idea, but I don't want us to massclaim just because Hoopla says we should. Why is the order the way it is? I know that this needs to happen soon, but I need some answers first.
Vel-Rahn Koon has claimed already, redtail is town, Good And Honest is probably town (and won't claim anyway), Almaster is probably town, I'm town. It really only leaves you and CA for who the best candidates to go next are. I'd be okay jumping up the order, but at worst I'm going after you. Anyway, thats why the order is the way it is.

I've also explained my motivations for massclaim - I want to be able to make balance predictions based on what the claims are, and I also want to lock scum into fakeclaims early, as I think it's possible we can catch them, or narrow the pool down even further to the point where it will be hard to lose.

I have some good data on what sort of power roles will exist in this set-up with what sort of density - I want to challenge scum to make a good fakeclaim now. If I'm satified the PR claims are town and match up with what we can expect from this set-up, we lynch from the pool of vanillas. Another reason is to cash in the information of what PR's have generated over two nights, rather than risk losing that with whoever scum NK. Remember, we've lost our doctor, so it's exceedingly likely we can prevent mafia killing at night. I'll be claiming my role before the end of today, regardless of what you do. But refusing now won't help the town in any way. If you want to debate the order of claiming, go on, I'll hear you out.
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Post Post #665 (isolation #140) » Sun Aug 29, 2010 9:40 am

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gonnano wrote:Here's a choice. VRK is the only one who has claimed so far, so we could wagon him and see if any investigative roles show up to clear him. If not, we lynch him.
No, he's probably town. Jump on the CA wagon.
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Post Post #668 (isolation #141) » Sun Aug 29, 2010 10:09 am

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gonnano wrote:why is VRK probably town? I'm fine with saying that people Zach voted for/pressured are probably town, but why the person that he had a "town vibe" on?

where does KKN fit in all this?

why is cashing in the PR now and definitely losing that player tonight better than letting the PR decide if they have relevant information to offer or not? Scum only have a 1/6 chance of killing the power role tonight.
Why do you think there will just be one? Are you deliberately fishing for that information?
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Post Post #674 (isolation #142) » Sun Aug 29, 2010 11:03 am

Post by Hoopla »

JUST CLAIM ALREADY. I'LL GO AFTER YOU IF YOU WANT, GONNANO.
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Post Post #676 (isolation #143) » Sun Aug 29, 2010 11:32 am

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He can be after you, then. He's town, though.
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Post Post #678 (isolation #144) » Sun Aug 29, 2010 11:33 am

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It's far more of a town tell than a scum tell. Plus, he's already claimed VT anyway. I'll be open to discussing him again once we finish the massclaim.
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Post Post #680 (isolation #145) » Sun Aug 29, 2010 11:54 am

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Because gonnano is playing the role of Staller McStallerson.
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Post Post #683 (isolation #146) » Sun Aug 29, 2010 1:42 pm

Post by Hoopla »

Oh my god, if this is a scum fakeclaim, this is genius. A couple of questions;

Does your role PM say anything about each other's alignment?
Do you guys have day/night talk? If so, what sort of things have you discussed?
gonnano wrote: Then again, maybe I've said all this just to find out that this is another one of those things that G&H doesn't feel like answering.
Really hate this line - looks like you're giving yourself wriggle-room if things backfire. Confirm this is your actual role now and you're not doing this.
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Post Post #684 (isolation #147) » Sun Aug 29, 2010 1:43 pm

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Oh wait, I might have read that quote wrong.
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Post Post #686 (isolation #148) » Sun Aug 29, 2010 1:57 pm

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gonnano wrote:I've told you everything I know already. No alignment hints, no separate chat, just a liability.

However, upon receiving my role I looked up a few games that contained lover pairs, and I gained the impression that scum-town pairs are actually relatively uncommon compared to same side pairs (in spite of what the wiki says about the "classic Lover pair"). This further strengthens my belief that G&H is town.
Strange that you don't have any nighttalking abilities - most lover pairs I've seen usually have that benefit, same with neighbours, masons and any other linked role.

Show me the games you 'looked up' please.
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Post Post #688 (isolation #149) » Sun Aug 29, 2010 2:18 pm

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gonnano wrote:I don't remember the games, just the conclusion that I made... sorry, it wasn't an in-depth study by any means, and I was doing it for my own benefit so I didn't bother to record information so that other people could check after me.
Off the top of my head, I don't remember ANY Mini Normal games that featured a Lover pair, let alone what alignments they were. A brief search tells me there definitely haven't been any since Mini 845 (the earliest game carried over before going into the archive). They're a core mechanic in a couple of regularly run open set-ups in Central Park, but other than that, they are generally restricted to Theme games.

I don't remember any Lover pair that weren't allowed to talk either. I think your claim is bogus, or on the outside chance it's true, is a 1-scum-1-town combination. I'd love G&H to come in and confirm this - hopefully this is one of the fabled ~*spEcIaL*~ times where he deviates from his playstyle of saying nothing.

Town/town lover pair is definitely an anti-town combination because it basically gives scum a double-kill at some point in the game for no town gain, and with 3:9's already steeply favouring scum, I'd be very scared if this is actually what is happening here. Considering a 2:10 set-up (or anything with an SK) is a real outside chance at this point, so I think I'm justified in limiting our scope to the realm of 3:9's. I
really
don't see a town/town lover pair in this game.
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Post Post #691 (isolation #150) » Sun Aug 29, 2010 2:59 pm

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gonnano wrote:I remember that it was a pain in the butt to find a game with lovers in it before, and I don't see any now. I probably got tired before and went to any game that I could find regardless of whether it was a mini or a normal, just looking for lover pairs. What I can tell you is that I found maybe one lover pair after a night of searching that was town-scum.
I'm 90% sure there haven't been lovers in a closed Mini Normal game ever, out of the ~360 or so we've had. I also find it frightfully alarming you set aside a night of searching for these roles, and then a) don't remember the games and b) can't find them again now. Your claim is bogus, sorry.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: gonnano

Also, I'm going to claim after CA now, because scum telling me to claim next isn't going to fly for me. So, ConfidAnon better here soon.
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Post Post #693 (isolation #151) » Sun Aug 29, 2010 3:14 pm

Post by Hoopla »

AlmasterGM wrote:I like this so much.

Because if it's a lie, we lynch scum.

And if it's the truth, Good and Honest goes BYE BYE BYE.
Even if gonnano is truthful about being lovers together, there is still a chance of lynching scum, as a town/scum combination is just as likely as a town/town combination. But even then, that kettle of fish feels a lot less likely than gonnano's claim being fake. See, this is what massclaims are good for.
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Post Post #695 (isolation #152) » Sun Aug 29, 2010 3:33 pm

Post by Hoopla »

Did you use the search function, or did you manually skim through games? Do you remember checking specific forums? Do you remember checking the archive? You obviously must have ventured out of Little Italy.
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Post Post #697 (isolation #153) » Sun Aug 29, 2010 3:54 pm

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Yes, I did that search too, and it doesn't give you a super exhaustive list - it gives you a series of open set-ups, theme games and a few false results where 'lover' has been used in a different context. It's certainly nowhere near extensive.
gonnano wrote: I don't see what you people are so excited about. It seems like "OMG he can't remember the game he read the first post of a month ago, he must be scum!!!"
This isn't the crux of the issue, but it certainly is telling enough to be an additional point in the case. Couple that with the strange ruling of not being able to nighttalk, despite being a linked role and it starts getting weirder. Then think, of all those Mini Normal games out there that have been run without a pair of lovers, you fortuitously land the role for the first time, and not only that - here's the kicker - you get paired with the one player who can't confirm or deny your claim. It's just such a statistical unlikelihood, and I'd be willing to lynch on that alone, even without the scummy extras you've provided us.
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Post Post #699 (isolation #154) » Sun Aug 29, 2010 4:13 pm

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gonnano wrote:Lucky me. I thought that the role of a Lover was essentially a Sibling with no benefits, so I wasn't surprised at not being able to nighttalk. I'm still not sure if it isn't just some way to make up for an overpowered town or underpowered scum.

Out of curiosity, what would the balance effect be of a town-scum lover pair? Off the top of my head it still seems slightly pro-scum.
Not sure - feels about even. I've never encountered them in Mini's, so I've not really thought about their effects too much. Being linked with a townie increases that scum's chance of being lynched or killed via the lynch, so it might be a town benefit. Losing one for one is usually a good result for town.
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Post Post #704 (isolation #155) » Mon Aug 30, 2010 11:30 am

Post by Hoopla »

ConfidAnon wrote:I'll claim whenever y'all want me to, I'm not picky.
Now.
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Post Post #706 (isolation #156) » Mon Aug 30, 2010 4:10 pm

Post by Hoopla »

Kid Know Nothing is next, then I'll claim.
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Post Post #709 (isolation #157) » Mon Aug 30, 2010 4:15 pm

Post by Hoopla »

I'm a tracker - Almaster claims next, then I reveal my results.
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Post Post #711 (isolation #158) » Mon Aug 30, 2010 5:37 pm

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I tracked gonnano N1 --> went nowhere.
And I tracked KKN N2 --> went nowhere.

redtail can be next.
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Post Post #713 (isolation #159) » Tue Aug 31, 2010 12:40 am

Post by Hoopla »

Hahaha.

You're still going to die anyway. There's no way this is a town/town combination.
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Post Post #714 (isolation #160) » Tue Aug 31, 2010 12:46 am

Post by Hoopla »

I can't believe G&H told us something and actually claimed. He's just broken his playstyle for nothing, because we will still be lynching them regardless. Really need to hear from redtail now to clear up a couple of things in my mind.
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Post Post #716 (isolation #161) » Tue Aug 31, 2010 1:05 am

Post by Hoopla »

Okie doke. If that's what's important to you...
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Post Post #719 (isolation #162) » Tue Aug 31, 2010 2:53 am

Post by Hoopla »

gonnano wrote:Just to clarify, tracking a mafia only gives a positive result if that person submits the nightkill, right?
That's right.
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Post Post #721 (isolation #163) » Tue Aug 31, 2010 11:46 am

Post by Hoopla »

Interestingly enough - I tracked you, hoping to either catch someone at the start of Elleran's wagon or psuedo-confirm someone there to make my analysis slightly more accurate, but it seems that may have backfired. KKN was my top suspect going into Night 2 - I was actually hoping I'd catch him, but partially clearing him is a decent second prize.

WHERE ARE YOU REDTAIL?
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Post Post #729 (isolation #164) » Wed Sep 01, 2010 10:41 pm

Post by Hoopla »

redtail896 wrote:VT. Sorry, I thought that was clear from my previous ramblings.

Something about this setup stinks. Only a tracker and a doc? C'mon. I don't buy it for a sec.
Word. Town would be in for a royal fucking nine times out of ten if the only PR's in a 3-scum game were a Doctor and a Tracker. It's even worse with a Town/Town lover combination, which basically equals double mafia-kill. So, possibilities;

1) Everything we know is true, and the lovers are a town/town combination.
2) One of the lovers is scum, and this is the mode of balancing the mod has used to offset such a minimal PR game.
3) One of our VT's is lying for some reason. I hope this isn't the case, but that would almost certainly be idiotic play.
4) There is only two scum, which would also be a fair way to balance this game. Actually, this would be a pretty interesting set-up.
5) There is an SK who has chosen not to kill. Generally these set-ups can get away with less PR's.


I hope to god the first option isn't true, but I admit there is an outside chance of it happening - I've played in a couple of poorly balanced Mini Normals before. The good news is we have a mandatory review system in place to trump such poorly designed set-ups, but even still - outside chance.

The second option is the most likeliest, I feel, though it still feels slightly underpowered. This wouldn't be a bad result for us going into tomorrow if this is true, because we're almost certainly going to lynch gonnano. That'd take us to 1 scum in 5 players (meaning two lynches), with my death being the expense tonight.

I'm not ruling the third option out, but if we have a powerrole fakeclaiming VT, you'd better get your ass in here and fix it now, because you will not be believed tomorrow if you try to claim results then. It is not the right play. I refuse to acknowledge poor town play as a possible option for what is happening.

This option is possible, but 2:10 games are so rare (like ~3%) that I'd consider the fifth option to have a better chance. To be honest, that's how I'd play the SK if I had immunity of some sort (particularly NK immunity). Town would never go on an SK hunt, and you'd really just need to avoid the lynch. This still feels like a long shot compared to option two, though.

I feel like the probabilities are thus;

Option 1) 20%
Option 2) 50%
Option 3) 5% (even though I hate the thought of it)
Option 4) 10%
Option 5) 10%
Something else I might have missed) 5%
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Post Post #730 (isolation #165) » Thu Sep 02, 2010 12:30 am

Post by Hoopla »

Espeonage - you haven't been here in 5 days, what's up? Can you give us a prod on Vel?

Everyone else: slap a vote on gonnano, you know you want to.
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Post Post #732 (isolation #166) » Thu Sep 02, 2010 12:55 am

Post by Hoopla »

It's nice to have one anyway, though. When's the deadline exactly?
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Post Post #735 (isolation #167) » Thu Sep 02, 2010 2:23 am

Post by Hoopla »

^ I think we just figured out the town half of this relationship.

I think it was incredibly telling that the only time G&H committed to something in this game (his claim) was when he realised he was in danger of being lynched (or killed via the lynch).
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Post Post #736 (isolation #168) » Thu Sep 02, 2010 2:29 am

Post by Hoopla »

I feel like I ought to post my final reads too;

Redtail is almost certainly town, regardless of what these flips reveal. Kid Know Nothing is half cleared by my tracker claim, so I'd be reluctant to lynch him on that basis - it's just damn unlucky if he turns out to be a goon who didn't submit a kill in the same night I tracked him. Vel, I started to believe is town, but I wouldn't rule him out completely. Almaster is still probably town, though I'm not as passionate about that read as I once was.

Regardless of the flips, you should only be considering Vel and ConfidAnon tomorrow - seriously. I have a strong preference for ConfidAnon tomorrow if my opinion is worth anything to you, and if somehow this is a town/town lovers flip, you must always assume that you're playing in a 3-scum set-up, even though it is inherently unbalanced. In the case of a town/scum flip - you have two chances to hit the last scum, and I expect the town to figure it out.
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Post Post #738 (isolation #169) » Thu Sep 02, 2010 2:35 am

Post by Hoopla »

I'm paranoid about a town/town flip, though. If it is, I really want ConfidAnon to die first.
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Post Post #739 (isolation #170) » Thu Sep 02, 2010 2:37 am

Post by Hoopla »

Hoopla wrote:I'm paranoid about a town/town flip, though. If it is, I really want ConfidAnon to die first.
Actually, if it is situation one - your opinion on what's happening has just been proven wrong, so you should definitely listen to
my
opinion. :P
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Post Post #744 (isolation #171) » Thu Sep 02, 2010 4:18 am

Post by Hoopla »

HELL NO.
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Post Post #750 (isolation #172) » Thu Sep 02, 2010 1:53 pm

Post by Hoopla »

Vel-Rahn Koon wrote: I don't think that we necessarily can get anything out of Hoopla's track targets - I don't think we'd see an investigation-type role in a game without some way for the Mafia to counter it (via Godfather or similar), so I'm not sure we can take the trackings at face value. It's fully possible that one of Hoopla's targets is "investigation" immune.
Having flicked through many Mini Normal set-ups, I can assure you, that is an obscure and very unlikely scenario - particularly considering how weak the town's power is. I think gonnano's idea is more on the right track - it's probable we're up against three goons.
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Post Post #754 (isolation #173) » Fri Sep 03, 2010 9:20 am

Post by Hoopla »

Vel-Rahn Koon wrote: I think biggest suspect for tomorrow is KKN. CA and AGM are me is clear due to interactions with Zach. If Hoopla's scum I think the town has already lost :D Same for redtail.
I semi-cleared KKN, by tracking him on N2 to nobody. It half clears him if there's two goons, and I don't think it's a worthwhile risk lynching him on the off-chance he's scum who went nowhere.

Also, Vel, I wish you would try harder to avoid your (probable) mislynch - you're only damaging the town in the end if you volunteer for the noose. Having said that, I hope the town doesn't push your lynch tomorrow, regardless of what you do. Besides, if gonnano/G&H both flip town, there is an outside chance we're in lylo already tomorrow, so you MUST try and survive for the town's sake if you're town.

You can slap down a hammer on gonnano now.
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Post Post #756 (isolation #174) » Fri Sep 03, 2010 9:25 am

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My dying wish is to not lynch Vel tomorrow.
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Post Post #758 (isolation #175) » Fri Sep 03, 2010 9:34 am

Post by Hoopla »

Yes, kill him.
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Post Post #961 (isolation #176) » Wed Oct 27, 2010 11:58 pm

Post by Hoopla »

Well, thankgod that finally finished. Redtail is right - I've been banging my head for the last two months, waiting for this to play out. I knew this would happen as soon as I died though, heck, it was still happening at the beginning too. Such languid, apathetic towns don't deserve to win, and though there was a glimmer of hope at the end, I didn't really expect any other result.

My clearing of Almaster was a pivotal passage of play that damaged our chances - it just goes to show how wrong you can be sometimes. To be honest, I was having doubts toward the end of my tenure, but let it ride, mostly on the basis of boxing the town into the corners I wanted them to look when I was gone, rather than just confusing them with a back-down and having them trust their own gut. Although, having said that, I don't think my considerations were taken into account very much at all. You lynched an innocent-result on Kid Know Nothing! How could you guys do that? He was 50% cleared and you took a chance on him being scum over other candidates? He was possibly even more cleared when you consider Good And Honest's attitude toward voting - as if he would have made the mafia kill! Regardless, the innocent result meant the town (at the very minimum) should have suspected KKN at least twice as much as the next best candidate for him to be the logical kill. And I don't think there is any way that was true.

The reason I came out as tracker on Day 3 was to try and lock down the game with a large enough core of innocent/psuedo-innocent players and catch the scum in a process-of-elimination style scenario. I thought it was likely I'd be the mafia's kill that night regardless, so I made sure I extracted and cashed in the most information I could that day, so I had as much control over the rest of the game as I could. This was why I gambited to 'clear' redtail, and why I claimed my results to half-clear Kid Know Nothing. I'm still dazzled that the town lynched him. It's also why I pushed massclaim, so I could try and break the game from a balance perspective. Vel was pretty obviously town too, and in the end CA/Equinox and Almaster should have been the lynches.

I still dislike Good And Honest's playstyle, and would like to take up the debate again, because I don't really think it's a viable playstyle, or at best it's just really anti-town. Expect to be policy lynched in future games if you continue that charade - eventually people will just get sick of it. Equinox did a credible job of replacing in, and I had a small hope Vel would trust his gut and pull something out of the bag, but I think Almaster's venomous bussing was too hard to believe, which is completely understandable. But again, the endgame should never have been these three players to begin with.

I think redtail was solid throughout, and like I said in a previous newbie game, he has a lot of promise as a mafia player. His fluctuating activity probably is holding him back though. Still, he played quite well, and responded exactly as I was hoping for on Day 3. He was quite obviously town.
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Post Post #968 (isolation #177) » Thu Oct 28, 2010 1:26 pm

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Good and Honest wrote:I play Mafia because I love the feeling of being a detective and trying to solve a mystery case... So I tried to solve this case, too - unfortunately, I wouldn't be able to solve it completely since I couldn't inspect myself...
Maybe you should read murder mystery books, because the only reason mafia exists is because other players are willing to play the role of the liar. You're completely neglecting one half of the game because you refuse to lie, and conversely the times where this 'playstyle' is supposed to work (your town game), it doesn't, because refusing to lie means you can't tell the truth without it completely messing up your scumgame. Hence, you end up somewhere in the middle the whole time, almost always disabling you from voting and claiming.
Good and Honest wrote: I don't approve of Hoopla's decision to stop interacting with me. It deprived the town of a lot of potential information since I had asked Hoopla quite a few things. In fact, it could have been exactly a mafioso tactic to reduce the amount of information...
I was trying to prove a point by doing the EXACT same thing you were doing - saying nothing. I was just doing it in a different way. Why should you get to be able to say/do nothing, then bemoan the fact you're being ignored?
Good and Honest wrote: At the beginning of Day 3, Hoopla mentioned making a new analysis of Day 1 and Day 2 and promised to reveal it later. At one point I asked about it but Hoopla didn't share it... That was one more thing that could possibly have helped the town.
Know what could have helped the town? You providing
any
analysis at all. You don't get to criticize when you don't do anything yourself.
Good and Honest wrote: In this context, I'll remind you Hoopla's post #697 which is about the huge "statistical unlikelihood" of there being Lovers in a Normal game and one of them being a player who doesn't want to reveal anything about their role (me). OK, but, as statistically unlikely as that is, this was the case here! That's why I think people shouldn't think only about the most "possible" and most "likely" solutions. And I did tell Hoopla that the fact that something is "unnecessary" doesn't mean it can't be done - when Hoopla was claiming that Zachrulez voting for a mafia partner (AlmasterGM) during that particular situation on Day 1 would be "unnecessary"...
For sure - just because something is unlikely, doesn't mean it's not true. But if you dive into games with that mentality and make cases based on obscure possibilities, it's a recipe for disaster. You should ALWAYS act based on the best evidence available, and if there is a situation more likely than the one on offer, it is the rational play to go down that avenue. It doesn't guarentee anything, but it improves your chances.

The lover claim was a statistical unlikelihood, and even though I was wrong on that specific count, I safeguarded the possibility I was wrong with the safety-net of a balance based case. The town didn't have enough power to compensate for the disability of having two town lovers. If the lover claim was false, we lynch scum, if it was true, we still have good odds of it being a one scum/one town combination. It was the right play.

The same with Almaster's play. He played well to bus so convincingly, and I'll surely take that into account when I play with him again - I'll have a more detailed catalogue of Almaster specific tells to look for. But that still doesn't mean thinking he was town this game was the wrong play at the time. In parallel situations, it's likelier that scum wouldn't bus in those situations.
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Post Post #986 (isolation #178) » Fri Nov 05, 2010 7:20 am

Post by Hoopla »

Zachrulez wrote:town/town can be devastating to town and needs a lot of power to balance it. That's kind of the problem with the inclusion of either town/scum or town/town, a massclaim is going to heavily indicate the alignment of the pairing when you assume the mod is aiming for a relatively balanced game.
This is very true.

I had no qualms with the set-up overall, Esp - I actually think the lover dynamic was quite creative, although it was obvious the pair was scum/town from a balance perspective. Despite linking a scum in a lover relationship - town did still feel slightly underpowered. Doctor/Tracker isn't very much, particularly when scum has an RB to counter this too. Another weak town PR wouldn't have gone astray, but it wasn't a particularly jarring issue. Town had a decent chance of winning.
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Post Post #988 (isolation #179) » Fri Nov 05, 2010 7:35 am

Post by Hoopla »

Good and Honest wrote: I'm not really fond of focusing on the "likeliest" scenario because (as I have said before) I don't like easy solutions. Let's talk about mystery books again - imagine that there is one main suspect for the crime... and in the end it turns out that exactly that person is the criminal! Not very interesting, is it? That's why in mystery books the main suspect usually isn't the criminal... Of course, the game of Mafia is not quite the same but I have seen games on this site where the "likeliest" scenario isn't true... In any case, I don't think there's anything wrong with considering the different possibilities (no matter how "likely" they are) - in fact, for me that's one of the most enjoyable things in the game!
You're going to lose more games than you win with that attitude. Sure, an occasional long-shot theory will pay off once in a while, but it won't happen as often as the likeliest scenario. I don't understand why you would ignore your best chance of winning. I kind of don't think you understand it either. So let me put it in a more visually friendly manner;

There is a bag with 100 balls in it. 40 are blue, 30 are red, 20 are yellow and 10 are green. Your task is to guess the right colour ball that you will randomly pick out of the bag. There is no guarenteed way to pick the right answer each time, and going with blue still gives you a less than a coinflip's chance of winning. But it's still stupid and suboptimal to ignore blue on the chance green might come up. There is no extra reward for picking a statistically unlikely scenario. It just means you lose more often in the long run if you play multiple games.

There's nothing wrong with considering other possibilities in a game of mafia - we never know the true odds of someone's lynch turning up town or scum (if you're playing as town), but you also don't want to waste your time engaging in time-consuming long-shot endeavors, where many other players seem like better chances of being scum. In the end, you're letting
those
players off the hook, just because you want your pet theory to come true.
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Post Post #991 (isolation #180) » Sat Nov 06, 2010 1:13 am

Post by Hoopla »

Post the quicktopic.
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